Rockies Designate Wade Davis For Assignment
The Rockies are designating reliever Wade Davis for assignment, per Nick Groke of the Athletic (via Twitter). This brings to an end a three-year tenure in Denver that was an overwhelming disappointment.
Davis entered free agency on the heels of a four-year run as one of the sport’s most dominant late-inning arms. Between 2014-17, he combined for 241.1 innings of 1.45 ERA/2.23 FIP ball for the Royals and Cubs. He was a vital piece of Kansas City’s 2015 World Series winner.
The Rockies surely envisioned much of the same when they embarked on a bullpen-focused spending spree in the 2017-18 offseason. Colorado brought in Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee on three-year, $27MM deals before finishing with a flourish, inking Davis to a $52MM guarantee over the same term.
There were some warning signs the 32-year-old Davis wasn’t going to be able to sustain his prior levels of production. His walk rate spiked to a lofty 11.6% in his platform season, while his 94.4MPH fastball that year was down a tick from his unhittable peak with the Royals.
That said, it would’ve been impossible to predict Davis’ career going off the rails to the extent it has. His first season as a Rockie was actually solid, as he managed a 4.13 ERA in 65.1 innings. That was a far cry from his prime years, although it was still solidly better than average when adjusting for the hitter-friendly environs of Coors Field.
Last season, though, proved to be an unmitigated disaster. Davis pitched to an 8.65 ERA in 42.2 innings, with a massive spike in walk rate (to 14.1%) and a precipitous drop in strikeout rate (to 20.4%). His attempt at a 2020 bounceback never really got off the ground. He only got into five games, with a shoulder strain knocking him out of action for more than a month. Davis’ fate was sealed after he got tagged for four runs on four hits in just two-thirds of an inning in yesterday’s loss to the Dodgers.
Davis will surely clear waivers, since any claiming team would be on the hook for the remainder of his contract. It’s possible he tries to latch on with another club for the season’s final week, but he’d be ineligible for another team’s postseason roster at this point. To that end, Davis will probably turn his attention to 2021. After back-to-back lost seasons, the 35-year-old may have to settle for minor-league opportunities this offseason.
Sam Freeman Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Nationals’ reliever Sam Freeman underwent Tommy John Surgery earlier this summer, manager Dave Martinez told reporters (including Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). The southpaw has been out since August 12 with a flexor strain.
Freeman went under the knife on August 19, relays Jessica Camerato of MLB.com. Given that timeline, it’s likely he won’t be able to return to game action until 2022. Fortunately, the initial stages of the recovery have gone well, Martinez added.
It’s a devastating blow for the 33-year-old Freeman, who underwent the same procedure as a prospect back in 2010. He has seen big league action every year since 2012 but combined for just seven innings over the past two seasons. Freeman only allowed one run in seven appearances for the Nats this season, although his seven walks against six strikeouts hinted at potential forthcoming regression.
Freeman is eligible for arbitration this offseason, but he’s a slam dunk to be non-tendered. He could look to lock on with another club on a minor-league deal this winter or attempt to rehab on his own and explore a deal when he’s further along in his recovery.
Tyler Thornburg Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Reds right-hander Tyler Thornburg underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports (Twitter link). Thornburg was placed on the 10-day injured list with an elbow sprain eight days ago and then shifted to the 45-day IL last Monday, officially ending his season.
Given the usual 12-15 month recovery time associated with Tommy John procedures, Thornburg will almost certainly miss the entire 2021 season. It is the latest in a series of tough injuries for the 31-year-old, who has been limited to 269 1/3 innings and 192 appearances in the big leagues since 2012. Thornburg previously missed the entire 2017 season and much of 2018 due to thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.
These constant health woes kept Thornburg from realizing what seemed like a high ceiling as a relief pitcher. Thornburg had two outstanding seasons with the Brewers in 2013 and 2016, though elbow problems limited him in 2014-15. In the wake of that strong 2016 campaign, Milwaukee sent Thornburg to the Red Sox as part of a notable trade that brought Travis Shaw and Mauricio Dubon to the Brew Crew, though injuries limited Thornburg to just 42 2/3 innings in a Boston uniform before the Sox released him partway through the 2019 season.
A minor league deal with the Dodgers didn’t result in any MLB time in Los Angeles, though Thornburg resurfaced after inking a minors deal with Cincinnati over the winter. Thornburg posted a 3.86 ERA, 12.9 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over what might wind up as his only seven innings for the Reds, and his fastball still clocked at 93.1 mph.
White Sox Activate Dallas Keuchel From 10-Day IL
The White Sox announced that southpaw Dallas Keuchel has been activated off the 10-day injured list in advance of his scheduled start tonight against the Reds. Right-hander Jonathan Stiever was optioned to the club’s alternate training site to create roster space.
Keuchel was placed on the IL due to back spasms, and since his placement was retroactive to September 7, he will return having missed only a couple of days past the 10-day minimum. The injury wasn’t thought to be overly serious in the first place, and Keuchel will now get to make at least one tune-up start before the White Sox begin their postseason run.
Signed to a three-year, $55.5MM free agent deal last winter, Keuchel has thus far been a big plus for the White Sox, posting a 2.19 ERA over his first 53 1/3 innings on the South Side. ERA predictors (3.19 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA) are naturally less impressed with Keuchel due to his lack of strikeouts, as he has only a 5.4 K/9. As always, however, Keuchel is generating a ton of grounders (56% grounder rate), and this season has done a better job than ever of keeping the ball in the park. The left-hander has a league-best 0.3 HR/9 this year, a massive improvement over the 1.3 HR/9 he posted over 112 2/3 innings with the Braves in 2019.
Justin Verlander To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Justin Verlander announced (via his Instagram page) that he will undergo Tommy John surgery. As per the normal timeline for TJ recovery, Verlander will miss the entire 2021 season.
The right-hander’s full statement…
After consulting with several of the best doctors, it has become clear that I need Tommy John surgery. I was hopeful that I would be able to return to competition in 2020, however, during my simulated game unfortunately the injury worsened. Obviously I’m extremely disappointed, but I will not let this slow down my aspirations for my career. I will approach this rehab the only way I know, attack and don’t look back. I’m confident that with a proper rehabilitation program and my unwavering commitment that this surgery will ultimately lengthen my career as opposed to shorten it. I can’t thank my teammates, coaches, the front office and my fans enough for the support they have given me so far in this process. I’m eager to get through this recovery and back on the field to continue to do what I love.
Verlander started the Astros’ first game of the season and then was placed on the injured list due to a forearm strain. After some initial speculation that the injury would be season-ending, there was hope that Verlander was nearing a return to Houston’s rotation before the end of the schedule, and that he would be available for the team in the playoffs. Unfortunately, it now seems like we won’t see Verlander back on a mound until Opening Day 2022 at the earliest.
Given that Verlander will be 39 years old at that point, there is at least a chance that we have already seen the last pitch of his Hall Of Fame career. There isn’t a long track record of pitchers rebounding after such a notable surgery at that advanced age, though on the plus side for Verlander, he has been the picture of durability over his career. Apart from a triceps strain that cost him two months of the 2015 season, Verlander has been virtually free of any major injury, so he could theoretically have a better chance at a full recovery and a return to form than most pitchers in their late 30’s.
Verlander has already done better than most in holding off Father Time, as he is coming off two of his best seasons. At ages 35 and 36 during the 2018-19 seasons, Verlander posted a cumulative 2.55 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 7.47 K/BB rate over 437 innings for Houston, leading the league in both K/BB and WHIP in both years. After finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, Verlander edged out then-teammate Gerrit Cole to win the award in 2019, eight seasons after Verlander’s initial Cy Young Award triumph (as well as an AL MVP Award) with the Tigers in 2011.
The Astros signed Verlander to a two-year, $66MM extension prior to the 2019 season, and that deal certainly looked all the world like a sound investment in the wake of Verlander’s Cy Young year. However, both years of that contract have now been wiped out thanks to his forearm problem, and it is possible Verlander’s time in Houston could now be up.
It’s a major blow to an Astros team that already has $115MM committed to the 2021 season in the form of only four players — Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. With George Springer, Michael Brantley, and Yuli Gurriel all scheduled for free agency this winter, GM James Click faces some significant financial decisions, and the Astros’ overall direction is now severely complicated with the knowledge that Verlander won’t be a factor in 2021. While Houston has gotten some nice contributions from younger arms like Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez, obviously the pitching staff is much deeper and stronger with Verlander teaming with Greinke at the top of the rotation.
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Red Sox Chairman: “We Expect To Be Competitive Next Year”
On the heels of what team chairman Tom Werner described as “a very disappointing season,” Werner said the Red Sox are planning for a return to form in 2021. In an interview on NESN’s Gameday Live show yesterday (hat tip to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo), Werner noted that the Sox were hampered by multiple injuries this season, though “we’re not going to make any excuses. The only thing I’ll say is that there were a number of bright spots this year. We’re already attacking the challenges and we expect to be competitive next year.”
The Red Sox are 19-33, a record that puts them in last place in the AL East and 28th of 30 teams (ahead of only the Pirates and Rangers) in winning percentage. Injuries were indeed a factor as Werner mentioned, most notably Chris Sale being lost to Tommy John surgery and Eduardo Rodriguez missing the entire season after developing myocarditis stemming from a bout of COVID-19. While the pitching staff never recovered from the loss of those key arms, there were also issues on the position player side, as the likes of J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi underachieved at the plate.
With the postseason out of reach early, the Red Sox did some selling at the deadline, trading such players as Mitch Moreland, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, and Kevin Pillar. However, the fact that Boston didn’t move any true long-term assets was the first hint that the club wasn’t planning any sort of big overhaul.
“We don’t want this to be a long rebuilding process….We’ve got a lot of assets and, as everybody knows, we spend and we’re not a small-market team,” Werner said. “We’re going to be back next year.”
After two years of luxury tax payments, the Red Sox got their payroll under the tax threshold in 2020, thus resetting their penalty limit to zero and allowing the team to surpass the 2021 threshold ($210MM) if necessary with only a minimal penalty fee. Of course, last year’s hiring of former Rays executive Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer indicates that the Sox are likely planning a more efficient approach to spending that would keep them from regularly crossing the tax line, even if Boston will surely still have one of the sport’s higher payrolls.
Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, and promising rookie Bobby Dalbec are bolstering a lineup that is still quite productive, though “there’s no secret to the fact that pitching wins pennants for you….It’s going to start with pitching,” Werner said. Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi project as Boston’s top two starters next year, Martin Perez seems like a good candidate to return on a $6.25MM club option for 2021, and Sale is on track to return in June or July given the usual Tommy John recovery timeframe. It seems very likely that the Red Sox will augment this group with at least one new pitcher, though it is yet to be known if Bloom will aim to make a big splash or if he will score on a lower-cost acquisition.
Twins Place Jake Odorizzi On 10-Day Injured List
The Twins placed right-hander Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list yesterday due to a blister on his right middle finger. Righty Sean Poppen was called up from the Twins’ alternate training site to take Odorizzi’s spot on the active roster.
The placement is retroactive to September 17, so Odorizzi can be activated on the last day of the regular season. While blisters can be a nagging problem, Odorizzi is expected to miss only the minimum amount of time, though he’ll miss even more time in what has been an injury-plagued season for the veteran righty. Odorizzi has pitched only 13 2/3 innings due to two previous IL stints — the first for a back strain suffered during Summer Camp, and the second for a chest contusion after Odorizzi was hit in the chest with an Alex Gordon line drive.
Unsurprisingly, all the stops and starts have seemingly impacted Odorizzi’s performance, as he has only a 6.59 ERA and has been tagged for four homers over those 13 2/3 frames. As a result, Odorizzi seems ticketed for bullpen action during the Twins’ postseason run, and it certainly isn’t the platform year Odorizzi was looking for as he prepares to head into free agency this offseason. Odorizzi was also scheduled for free agency last offseason but he accepted the Twins’ one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer rather than test the open market.
Orioles, Rockies Complete Mychal Givens Trade
The Orioles have acquired outfielder Mishael Deson from the Rockies, per announcements from both teams. This completes the teams’ Aug. 30 trade centering on ex-Orioles reliever Mychal Givens.
The 18-year-old Deson made his pro debut with the Orioles in 2019 and combined for a .252/.327/.336 line with one home run and 23 stolen bases on 34 attempts across 286 plate appearances at the rookie level.
Givens, long a successful reliever with the Orioles, joined the Rockies as the owner of a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings this season. But the acquisition hasn’t gone according to plan for the Rockies, with whom Givens has thrown 5 2/3 innings of four-run ball. The Rockies were playoff contenders then, but they’ve sunk to a 22-27 record.
Going forward, the Rockies can at least hang their hat on the fact that Givens is a proven and controllable MLB reliever, as he has recorded a 3.37 ERA/3.48 FIP with 10.6 K/9 and 3.45 BB/9 in 341 2/3 innings since he debuted in 2015. He has another arbitration-eligible season left in 2021.
Trevor Bauer On Free Agency
Reds right-hander Trevor Bauer was already the top pitcher on MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings back in February — well before the league shut down for several months, giving way to what felt like interminable negotiations between the league and MLBPA on a way to safely return to play. That was also before other projected top pitchers (e.g. Robbie Ray, Mike Minor) struggled immensely in 2020’s 60-game slate. It was before Marcus Stroman opted out of the season.
It was also before the 29-year-old Bauer absolutely obliterated opposing lineups en route to what is currently an MLB-best 1.71 ERA and a ninth-ranked 2.83 FIP. Bauer has struck out 37.4 percent of the hitters he’s faced this season against just a 6.8 percent walk rate. The resulting 30.6 K-BB% trails only Shane Bieber for the MLB lead. Per Statcast, Bauer ranks in the 96th percentile or better in each of expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage again and expected weighted on-base average. He ranks at the very top of the league in terms of fastball spin rate and expected ERA.
Bauer might not be the clear favorite for the NL Cy Young, thanks largely to sub-2.00 showings from each of Yu Darvish, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes — plus yet another dominant campaign from reigning, two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. But Bauer is squarely in the mix with at least two remaining starts on the schedule. The performance of all those names down the stretch will prove pivotal in determining who takes home that hardware.
Cy Young or not, Bauer has only furthered his standing as this winter’s most desirable free-agent starter. It’s not particularly close. Take a look through this year’s free-agent class and it’s clear that he is in his own tier.
With that in mind, it’s of particular note that Bauer took some time this week to discuss his forthcoming trip to the open market in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio). Asked about his priorities in free agency, Bauer replied:
I want to win. I want to be with a team that has a winning culture. I want to be there in the playoffs. I want a chance at a World Series. That’s one thing that really drives me. I want a chance to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth. That really drives me. Going along with that: how’s the medical staff? How’s the technology — the information that’s available on the coaching staff? What’s the culture of the organization like?
Most top free agents prioritize signing with contending clubs or expected contenders, of course. But Bauer has spoken in the past about his desire to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth, and that’s a more or less unheard-of concession for teams to make in today’s era of constantly evolving pitcher usage. Pitching every fourth day would be a throwback to rotations of a generation past, at a time when more teams are leaning toward increased rest and limiting trips through the batting order.
The technology component of Bauer’s decision is also a key factor to consider. Bauer himself takes an extremely analytical approach to pitching, so it stands to reason that he’d want a more progressive, data-forward team in that regard. The Reds’ hiring of Driveline head Kyle Boddy, with whom Bauer had already worked in the past, was surely a welcome addition for Bauer. There are still more analytically inclined clubs out there, of course, and Bauer will garner interest from virtually every hopeful contender.
The most notable portion of Bauer’s interview wasn’t the generally expected traits he hoped to see with a new club (or in a return to the Reds), but rather his softening of a long-voiced preference to sign one-year deals. Bauer has previously been vocal about playing out his career in mercenary fashion — only signing one-year arrangements. Doing so would not only give him annual control of where he pitches (thus ensuring regular work with contending teams) but could also increase his earning power.
There’s inherent risk in that approach, of course; a potential injury or decline would leave him without the safety net of a guaranteed multi-year salary. But teams are also much more willing to pay a premium on shorter-term deals — one-year deals in particular.
Just 18 months ago, Bauer again stated his intent to “go year-to-year my entire career.” He added, rhetorically: “Why would you lock yourself in a situation that may not make you happy? I think that’s highly inefficient.”
Now? Bauer makes clear that he’s open to one-year deals but wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a longer-term pact.
Again, I think it comes back to I just want a chance to win every year. I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that’s going to be a situation that’s good for me, I would consider it. I do think that in order to do the things that I want to do, I think I’m going to have to take on a little more risk than normal in those long-term contracts. …I’m not afraid of the one-year deals. I’m not afraid of the longer deals. It’s just going to be a case-by-case basis, and we’ll see what the situations look like.
Perhaps those comments were made more as a negotiating tactic that’ll allow Bauer to point back to them over the winter as he seeks to improve one-year offers. Perhaps he’s had a genuine change of heart and is now more open to the idea of a multi-year deal if it’s put forth by the right team. Other factors, such as opt-out clauses, could give him the opportunity to thread the needle and enjoy the best of both worlds. Every year tacked onto the deal and every opt-out clause included, however, figures to come at the expense of the overall annual value of the pact. Ultimately, whether it’s on a one-year deal or a multi-year deal, Bauer should earn the largest annual salary of any free-agent starter this winter.