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Injured Angels’ Pitchers Making Progress

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The Angels are close to welcoming back a pair of starting pitchers, as Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to cover (Twitter links here). Matt Harvey is slated to rejoin the rotation out of the All-Star break, while JC Ramirez appears to be nearing activation as well after a typically lengthy Tommy John rehab process. Meanwhile, reliever and fellow Tommy John patient Keynan Middleton began a rehab assignment Friday.

Harvey went to the injured list with an upper back strain May 25 and then suffered a setback June 10, continuing a nightmarish season. The Angels took a one-year, $11MM flier on Harvey in free agency, but the decision has emphatically gone against the team thus far. Once an ace with the Mets, Harvey joined the Angels after finishing 2018 in respectable fashion with the Reds. In his first two months as an Angel, though, the 30-year-old performed like one of the majors’ worst starters, notching a  7.50 ERA/6.11 FIP with 6.56 K/9 against 3.94 BB/9 across 48 frames.

Ramirez, also 30, hasn’t taken the mound for the Angels since going under the knife last April. The righty managed effective results in 142 1/3 innings as a starter for the Angels in 2017, when he put up a 4.11 ERA (with a 4.67 FIP), 6.45 K/9, 2.97 BB/9 and a 51.4 percent groundball rate. A 95.5 mph fastball helped Ramirez achieve that success, though Triple-A Salt Lake broadcaster Steve Klauke tweeted last week that the hurler’s velocity has been far less imposing during his rehab work. That was again the case Friday, per Klauke, who reports Ramirez hovered around 88 to 92 mph while tossing six innings of three-run ball.

Sadly for the Angels, the upcoming returns of Harvey and Ramirez have taken on added importance in light of starter Tyler Skaggs’ passing this week. At 45-44 and 4 1/2 games out of playoff position, the club has an outside chance at earning a wild-card spot. But the Angels will need more from a starting staff which is trying its best to carry on under terrible circumstances. None of the Angels’ current options have posted exemplary production to this point, though there’s plenty of promise in the form of Andrew Heaney and the young tandem of Griffin Canning and Jose Suarez.

Angels starters have handed off to a bullpen which has received quality late-game production from Ty Buttrey, Hansel Robles and Cam Bedrosian. When Middleton comes back, the 25-year-old will add another high-octane arm to the group. With help from a 96 mph heater, the right-handed Middleton logged a 3.43 ERA/4.24 FIP with 9.36 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 76 innings from 2017-18. He underwent surgery last May.

MLBPA Hires Chris Capuano

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Longtime major league left-hander Chris Capuano officially ended his playing career in 2018, but it didn’t take much time for him to find a new role in the game. The MLB Players’ Association announced the hiring of Capuano as its director of operations on Friday.

With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire after the 2021 season, the union and the owners have already begun talks on a new CBA. It seems the 40-year-old Capuano is in line to play an important part in future discussions, as the union explained he “will oversee and engage in full range of Players Association Initiatives including general union operations, Players Trust-related activities, various business activities, and collective bargaining.”

Capuano brings impressive credentials to his new position. Not only was he a consistent union presence as a player, but Capuano boasts an accomplished educational background. He earned an undergraduate degree in economics from Duke University in 2000 and recently graduated from MIT’s Sloan Fellows MBA program, according to the MLBPA.

The union’s executive director, Tony Clark, praised Capuano as someone who “has always been a passionate and articulate voice” on the players’ behalf. Capuano added: “This is an opportunity for me to continue working with players to collectively achieve our objectives as stewards of the game and to help players use the great platform our National Pastime provides to make a positive impact.”

Capuano spent parts of 12 years in the majors and combined for a 4.38 ERA across 1,429 2/3 innings with the Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees.

Jeff Luhnow Discusses Astros’ Rotation

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The depth of the Astros’ rotation suffered a blow Friday with the loss of right-hander Corbin Martin, who underwent Tommy John surgery. Not only is the 23-year-old done for 2019, but Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said Martin is likely to sit out a “significant portion” of next season (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Martin’s absence will cost the Astros a hurler they thought would factor into their rotation in 2020, according to Luhnow.

While Luhnow added that the loss of Martin doesn’t affect the Astros’ plans leading up to the July 31 trade deadline, he admitted that “it could make getting a pitcher with an extra year of control more appealing.”

Owing in part to Martin’s injury, the Astros will head into 2020 with some uncertainty in their rotation. Ace Justin Verlander will stick around, Brad Peacock could either continue to start or return to the Astros’ bullpen, and Lance McCullers Jr. should be back from a Tommy John procedure of his own. On the other hand, though, co-ace Gerrit Cole might depart for a mega-deal in free agency, which would be an enormous shot to Houston’s rotation. Southpaw Wade Miley, who’s been an effective starter for the Astros this year, and righty Collin McHugh are also scheduled to reach the open market.

Even after seeing Martin go down, the Astros still have promising young pitchers who could earn spots on their 2020 staff, with Forrest Whitley, Josh James and J.B. Bukauskas among them. But if the AL West leaders want a more established starter to aid in their World Series push this year and take a spot next season, their solution could come via trade this month.

The Astros had already been connected to the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd in the rumor mill prior to the news on Martin. The 28-year-old Boyd’s a breakout left-hander who’s controllable through 2022, which makes him one of the coveted trade candidates available as the 31st nears. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News added more fuel to the fire Friday, tweeting Houston has “been one of the teams scouting Boyd hard.”

Like Boyd, Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman stands out as an obvious trade chip who’d further a team’s cause past this season. The Astros have reportedly had interest in Stroman, who’s under control through 2020, for multiple seasons. In light of Luhnow’s comments, Stroman may be an even more realistic possibility for the Astros.

Diamondbacks Place David Peralta On Injured List

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The Diamondbacks placed left fielder David Peralta on the 10-day injured list and recalled infielder Domingo Leyba from Triple-A Reno on Friday, manager Torey Lovullo announced.

Peralta is dealing with right AC joint inflammation, an issue that has dogged him for over a month. The 31-year-old went to the IL with the same injury on May 24, and even though Peralta spent the minimum time on the shelf, his shoulder hasn’t healed since then. Lovullo did express hope Friday that Peralta would once again return after a short IL stay, though.

Peralta boasted a .309/.357/.524 line in 217 plate appearances when he initially went down, but that slash has dropped to .289/.352/.476 (112 wRC+) in 107 PA since his return. While that’s still quality production overall, it falls well short of Peralta’s numbers in comparison to last year, when he recorded a 130 wRC+ with 30 home runs. He has mustered just nine HRs this season while seeing his ISO drop from .223 to .187.

Arizona, which is three games out of the NL wild-card race, has often turned to the righty-hitting Tim Locastro in left when Peralta hasn’t been available. However, with right-hander Antonio Senzatela on the mound for the Rockies on Friday, the Diamondbacks started the lefty-swinging Jarrod Dyson.

Closer Updates: Athletics, D-Backs, Royals

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Let’s check in on a few ninth-inning situations from around the game …

  • The Athletics are engineering a change in their closer situation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). Just-minted All-Star Liam Hendriks is going to be relied upon to secure final-inning leads for the foreseeable future, she indicates. Blake Treinen had performed the job with aplomb last year but hasn’t been nearly so trustworthy in 2019. He has been issuing a dizzying number of walks of late and took a loss in his most recent appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint. Hendriks, meanwhile, is humming along at a 1.29 ERA clip through 48 2/3 innings, with 11.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He has only permitted a single long ball this year, with a paltry 1.8% HR/FB rate. That’ll need to hold up, at least to some extent, if he’s to succeed with an exceptionally flyball heavy approach; his current 0.56 GB/FB rate is by far the lowest in his career.
  • While Greg Holland was and probably still is at risk of losing his hold on the 9th with the Diamondbacks, he’ll still be in line for save duties unless and until we hear otherwise. Skipper Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link), that he won’t “run from” the veteran reliever — even after a pair of brutal outings. Last we checked, Lovullo was sleeping on the decision so he could make it “with a clear head.” It seems he wasn’t quite ready to open that can of worms. The team would no doubt prefer for Holland to work through things, as we explored in the above-linked post. Another factor: the alternatives, or lack thereof. It has been an off year for Archie Bradley, though he fares much better in the eyes of fielding-independent pitching metrics than his 5.21 ERA would suggest. It’s the opposite scenario for Yoan Lopez, who has secured excellent results despite a pedestrian 6.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9. There’s an argument for Andrew Chafin (3.03 ERA; 11.2 K/9 vs. 3.3 BB/9) and perhaps Yoshihisa Hirano, who long closed in Japan, but it isn’t as if there’s a single, clear alternative to Holland.
  • In more forward-looking news, surprise Royals closer Ian Kennedy is settling nicely into his new gig, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan writes. “I]t’s fun to be good at something again and contribute,” says the former starter. While his big contract will run out after 2020, the 34-year-old Kennedy says he anticipates continuing his career thereafter. “You can sign one-year or two-year deals,” he explains, “because even though you’re older, teams know you can still pitch and help a team. You look around the league and you see that all the time.” We’re still a ways away from considering Kennedy as a free agent, but perhaps he will have a shot at a productive run through his mid to late-thirties. Of more immediate concern for the foundering K.C. club is whether Kennedy can be turned into a trade chip. With $16.5MM salaries this year and next, there’s little chance of moving all of the money, but Kennedy’s relief revival makes it reasonable to expect that some kind of deal can be structured to save the rebuilding organization some cash.

Latest On Marlins’ Draft Signing Efforts

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After a few recent deals hit the books, the Marlins were left with the two top remaining unsigned players from June’s Rule 4 amateur draft. Fourth overall choice J.J. Bleday and #35 draftee Kameron Misner have yet to agree to terms, though it seems there’s general optimism — for the former, in particular — that they’ll end up signing on.

The deadline for reaching agreement is July 12th at 5pm eastern. It’s not at all infrequent to see a few nail-biters, though this signing season has been notably free of drama. After Bleday and Misner, the loftiest selection that isn’t yet in the books is 67th overall pick Josh Smith (Yankees).

President of baseball operations Michael Hill did not express any concern with the two key draft pieces, both of whom were star collegiate outfielders. “We’re encouraged with both, and hope to get it taken care of and get them out as soon as possible,” he tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.

In the case of Bleday, who just wrapped up a championship run with Vanderbilt, it seems it may only be a matter of time before he’s under contract. Frisaro tweets that a deal is “getting closer to being finalized” while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman says in his own tweet that the sides are “moving toward a deal.” Both indicate that the bonus is likely to be right near the slot value of $6,664,000.

As for Misner, a competitive balance round A selection who hails from the University of Missouri, there seems at least to be a bit more uncertainty. Heyman says that the Marlins are “believed” to have made an at-slot offer of $2,095,800. Misner and his reps may be running the clock in hopes of commanding more, but it’s not clear whether that’s even a realistic possibility. There’s no indication at present that he’d consider returning to school; as Frisaro rightly notes, that’s a risky option for a college junior.

By my count, the Marlins have spent to the limits of their existing bonus pool. They saved on several players but went over slot for second-rounder Nasim Nunez and fifth-rounder Evan Fitterer. Teams can exceed the allocated values by 5% without sacrificing any future draft picks; tallying the MLB.com tracker bonuses and adding that padding to the already signed players puts the Fish at about $7K shy of the line. In other words: there’s no room to pay one of their two remaining unsigned players more than their slot value unless the other takes less.

Arizona May Have Its Long-Term Catcher

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The Cardinals spent a second-round pick on catcher Carson Kelly in 2012 and saw him continue as a strong prospect in the ensuing years, but he never got a chance to shine as a Redbird. Kelly was instead stuck in the shadow of franchise icon Yadier Molina, who further solidified his place in the organization with a three-year, $60MM extension at the outset of the 2017 season. With Molina locked in at high prices through 2020, the Cardinals finally decided last offseason that Kelly was expendable. They traded the 24-year-old to the Diamondbacks in a package for superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who has fallen short of expectations in his first few months in St. Louis.

Unlike Goldschmidt, Kelly has thrived in his new environment. Serving as the Diamondbacks’ primary catcher, Kelly has slashed .275/.352/.538 (123 wRC+) with 10 home runs in 193 plate appearances. Most of the right-handed Kelly’s damage at the plate has come versus lefty pitchers, whom he has destroyed for a line of .383/.473/.766 over a small sample of 55 PA, though he has also been playable against righties. Thanks in part to his impressive offensive output, Kelly has already totaled 1.7 fWAR, which ties for seventh among catchers and happens to easily outdo the minus-0.2 Molina has mustered to this point. It even upstages Goldschmidt’s 0.7.

Adding to his value, Kelly has been an outstanding defender in his first year in the desert. That isn’t necessarily a surprise, as Kelly was a lauded backstop during his days as a prospect. Nevertheless, the fact that he’s delivering in that area in his first extensive action in the majors is no doubt comforting to the Diamondbacks.

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, only 15 catchers have been superior defenders to Kelly this season. He’s the game’s sixth-best blocker and its 24th-ranked pitch framer, per BP, and has also held his own at the less obscure art of throwing out runners. Kelly has caught 9 of 25 would-be base stealers, giving him a 36 percent success rate which ranks 9 percent better than the league-average mark.

While Kelly does indeed look like a legitimate starting catcher, the question is whether he’s this good. On the offensive side, probably not, says Statcast, which indicates there has been substantial luck behind his .368 weighted on-base average. Kelly’s wOBA places him in company with All-Star Gary Sanchez, yet his .311 expected xwOBA aligns him with Tyler Flowers and puts him in the majors’ 30th percentile. Kelly’s also below average in terms of expected batting average (16th percentile), expected slugging percentage (42nd), hard-hit rate (48th) and exit velocity (48th). That said, catchers don’t have to be offensive juggernauts – especially when they’re as adept as Kelly is behind the plate. Backing up BP’s framing numbers, Statcast places Kelly in the league’s 96th percentile in that area.

Although Kelly’s production as a hitter this year may not be sustainable, you don’t need to be a force at the plate to serve as a quality starting catcher. Just 18 backstops, Kelly included, have cleared the 1.0-fWAR bar this season. Furthermore, even if Kelly’s offense wanes, his defensive chops give him a high floor which could help make him the Diamondbacks’ answer at his position for the foreseeable future. Kelly won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 campaign, so Arizona may not have to look for another primary catcher for a while.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Odubel Herrera Suspended For Remainder Of Season

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Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera will be suspended for the remainder of the season, the league has announced on the heels of a report from Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter). Commissioner Rob Manfred determined that Herrera violated the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.

Criminal charges were brought against Herrera after his arrest in Atlantic City on May 28th. At the time, it was alleged that Herrera had caused visible injuries to the arms and neck of his 20-year-old girlfriend. Those charges were dropped recently because the alleged victim did not wish to pursue prosecution. The league policy vests authority in Manfred to find a violation of its terms regardless of the presence of formal legal action, successful or otherwise, by authorities.

Though Herrera has been on administrative leave since the end of May, the suspension will formally be leveled retroactive to June 24 and will run for 85 games in total. That will cost Herrera just over half of his $5MM salary this season. He’ll be precluded from participating in the postseason this year and also be required to participate in a treatment program.

Herrera has agreed not to appeal the determination. That’s a common stipulation reached in these matters, prior to the formal imposition of punishment. This suspension is one of the lengthiest yet to come down from Manfred’s office. Previously, Jose Torres (100 games), Hector Olivera (82 games), and Roberto Osuna (75 games) were among those to have the dubious distinction of being hit with penalties of similar magnitude.

The Phillies have released a statement on the matter, saying that the organization supports the suspension and is “encouraged by Odubel’s acceptance of his discipline as an indication of his willingness to learn from this and change his behavior appropriately.” The Philadelphia organization owes him $7MM next year, $10MM for 2021, and $3.5MM in total buyouts for a pair of ensuing club options.

Herrera issued his own statement via the MLBPA (Twitter link). He acknowledged “inappropriate behavior” but did not specify what that constituted. Herrera further states: “I acted in an unacceptable manner and am terribly disappointed in myself. I alone am to blame for my actions. I’ve taken meaningful steps to assure that nothing like this will ever happen again.”

Mets To Re-Sign Dilson Herrera

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The Mets have reached a minor-league deal to re-sign infielder Dilson Herrera, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Herrera had just opted out of his original minors pact with the New York club, but did not find a preferable opportunity elsewhere and elected to return.

Herrera has been off to a rousing start at the plate this year. Through 256 Triple-A plate appearances, he’s carrying a healthy .258/.355/.566 slash with 17 home runs. And it’s easy to forget that he only turned 25 in March.

Nevertheless, while he received other offers to join affiliates, Herrera was unable to command a MLB roster spot. He chose to take his chances on receiving an eventual call-up from the Mets, whose scuffling play could potentially lead to a mid-season sell-off that might create some openings.

Herrera was once seen as a future piece for the Mets, who picked him up in a 2013 swap, gave him a brief but unsuccessful MLB debut, and shipped him to Cincinnati in the middle of the 2016 season. He didn’t reach base enough in a showing last year with the Reds to lay claim to a job there, then re-joined the Mets on a minors deal.

Tigers Extend Al Avila

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The Tigers have struck a new deal with general manager Al Avila, with the team announcing the move following a report from Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. It’s said to be a multi-year deal.

Avila’s precise new contract terms aren’t yet known, but he had previously been working under an agreement that ran though the 2020 campaign. Clearly, then, ownership has given him a strong vote of confidence and clear mandate to continue the organization’s rebuilding effort.

Outwardly, the Detroit organization has struggled massively since it installed Avila following the ouster of long-time GM Dave Dombrowski in the middle of the 2015 season. The Tigers made a run at contending in the ensuing season, but fell short of the playoffs. Ever since, the club has been dreadful, racking up two-straight 98-loss campaigns and carrying a 28-54 record entering play today.

There obviously have been positive developments in the team’s talent pipeline, which was notably dry at the time Avila took the helm. The Tigers cracked the top-ten farm rankings of MLB.com at the start of the 2019 season, though they didn’t fare quite so well in the most recent rankings of Baseball America and Fangraphs. All would agree that the Tigers have some premium talents now in the system, led by recent 1-1 draft choice Casey Mize and fellow hurlers including Matt Manning, Franklin Perez, Beau Burrows, Kyle Funkhouser, and Alex Faedo. All but Perez, who was picked up in the Verlander swap, were recent top Tigers draft choices.

Some would argue those improvements have not been substantial enough, or haven’t come as quickly as they should have. There’s a case to be made, to be sure, but it’s also fair to point out that Avila had an exceptionally difficult slate of contracts to deal with. Unlike the division-rival White Sox, whose best veterans were relatively youthful and playing under appealing extensions, the Tigers hit the reset button with a host of massive contracts. The returns achieved for the Tigers’ veterans don’t seem terribly fruitful at present, but it’s also hard to say in retrospect that Avila could or should have done better at the time for well-compensated players such as Justin Verlander (link), Justin Upton (link), Ian Kinsler (link), Justin Wilson and Avila’s own son, Alex Avila (link). It’s not as if the Tigers ever had much hope of moving Miguel Cabrera and Jordan Zimmermann — or Victor Martinez and Anibal Sanchez, whose contracts have since expired — which has made it hard to fully draw down the club’s payroll.

If there’s one deal that’s really raised questions, it’s the J.D. Martinez swap. But indications were at the time that the market was much more limited than was generally supposed from the outside; perhaps the most questionable aspect of the organization’s decisionmaking was not to move Martinez earlier. The timing question is certainly relevant also to now-injured hurler Michael Fulmer, who might have brought back a haul had the Tigers marketed him early in his career. There’s an argument to be made that the team also missed a window on Nicholas Castellanos, who was in at least some demand at previous points but can now only be marketed as a rental piece this summer.

It remains to be seen how Avila will handle not only Castellanos, but controllable pitchers Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene, at this year’s deadline. But he’ll enter the summer trading period with the full backing of ownership and a lengthy timeline upon which to cast his gaze.

Whatever one’s perspective on Avila’s work to date, Tigers chairman Chris Ilitch made clear that Avila has handled his position as the organization prefers. As Ilitch put it in a prepared statement: “It’s clear to anyone that follows Tigers baseball that our organization is undergoing a significant transformation. I’ve been impressed with Al’s leadership and focus, and the steadfast way he has led our baseball operations since becoming GM.”

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