Raul Ibanez Not Interested In Interviewing For Managerial Posts
Long-time big leaguer Raul Ibanez has popped up from time to time as a managerial candidate. But he has thus far declined requests to interview and is doing so again during the current hiring cycle, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.
Ibanez has come up most recently as a potential Giants target, with Shaikin noting the Cubs as another possible team with interest. But the 47-year-old says it simply “is not the right time” to consider such a committing position.
It seems that Ibanez remains content for the time being continuing to work in the Dodgers front office as a special assistant. That position has allowed him to continue living and working primarily from his home in Miami.
That takes one potentially interesting, fresh managerial candidate out of the picture for the numerous clubs seeking new skippers. Ibanez will surely once again show up on the managerial rumor circuit if and when he gives word that he’d like to take on such a role.
Japanese Slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo To Be Posted
Japan’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars announced today that they intend to make star corner outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo available through the NPB-MLB posting system. Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times was among those to cover the news via Twitter. Once he’s formally posted, which will occur between November 1st and December 5th, Tsutsugo will have thirty days to negotiate a contract with any of the thirty MLB teams. He’ll be represented by the Wasserman Agency, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets.
The 27-year-old left-handed-hitting slugger is a ten-year veteran of Nippon Professional Baseball. Accordingly, he won’t be subject to the restrictions on international signings that limited the earning potential for countrymate Shohei Ohtani and certain other younger and/or less experienced players.
Under the new posting system, which went into effect after Ohtani’s signing, the team that agrees to sign Tsutsugo will also need to pay a release fee that is determined by reference to the contract. Teams pay 20% of guaranteed money up to $25MM, 17.5% for promised cash between $25MM and $50MM, and then 15% of anything beyond. There are also some provisions that allow for additional release fees in the event that certain non-guaranteed earnings are triggered.
Tsutsugo has long been on the MLB radar. He has been among the most effective hitters in Japanese baseball since fully establishing himself at the nation’s highest level in 2014. Since that time, Tsutsugo has devoured NPB pitching. In over four thousand career plate appearances, he’s a .284/.382/.525 hitter with 205 long balls.
This past season wasn’t Tsutsugo’s most dominant, as he provided the BayStars with 557 plate appearances of .272/.388/.511 hitting and launched 29 long balls. That’s a far sight shy of his personal-best 2016 output (.322/.430/.680, 44 home runs) but still plenty productive. Indeed, he was the sixth-best hitter in the NPB by measure of OPS.
There ought to be a fair amount of interest in Tsutsugo among MLB teams, though he’s not generally regarded as a quality fielder and isn’t exceptionally youthful. The most direct market competition will likely come from other left-handed-hitting, power-oriented corner bats such as Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun. It remains to be seen whether Tsutsugo will be targeted as a first-division regular, solid platoon candidate, or something in between.
Latest On Gabe Kapler
While the Padres, Cubs, Mets, Pirates, Angels, Giants, and Royals get a head start on the hiring process in their search for new managers, the Phillies organization has remained notably outside the fray. Although the job security of manager Gabe Kapler has been a hot topic in the greater Pennsylvania area since he assumed managerial duties in Philadelphia in 2018, the former outfielder still finds himself under the club’s employ as of Oct. 7. However, judging from today’s rumblings from The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen, Phillies owner John Middleton could soon be arriving at a conclusion in regard to Kapler’s future–or lack thereof–with his franchise (link).
According to a source cited by Breen, Middleton has been seeking input from Phillies players as he attempts to determine whether Kapler is the right man to lead the clubhouse in 2020. Breen relays that the Philadelphia owner has spent the last week-plus since the regular season ended in evaluation mode vis a vis Kapler’s performance, and it appears the skipper’s job status will depend in part on whether the private comments of his players sync up with their public message of support mounted in the season’s final month.
Breen includes several of those season-end quotes, including catcher J.T. Realmuto‘s unequivocal endorsement, in which the All-Star said that Kapler is “a guy that this clubhouse really respects”. Similarly, franchise cornerstone Bryce Harper was supportive of Kapler following the season’s final day, saying the club’s disappointing .500 finish was “not his fault”. If Philly’s key players are indeed firmly in the Kapler camp, it may be that Middleton’s prolonged evaluation is meant, more than anything, to merely turn up the heat on the manager’s bench seat for 2020.
If Middleton does ultimately decide to part ways with Kapler, the club may end up playing catch-up in the recruitment of top managerial candidates. To this point, we have already heard reports indicating that Joe Maddon to the Angels is an increasing probability, and Joe Girardi‘s affinity (or, at least, interest) in the Mets posting is also well known.
Players On Remaining Playoff Teams Who’ll Soon Be Free Agents
In a rare treat for baseball fans, Monday will feature four separate divisional-round games–and four teams playing to save themselves from elimination. With the Astros up 2-0 on the Rays, the Yankees up 2-0 on the Twins, the Dodgers up 2-1 on the Nationals, and the Braves up 2-1 on the Cardinals, Monday could see a host of players heading home for the offseason.
With the ALDS and NLDS reaching what may be an apex of action tonight, it seems a good time to give readers a comprehensive list of which players featured in tonight’s games will be hitting the open market this winter. While postseason performance doesn’t always foreshadow the giant swings in financial fortune that some expect, a player’s impending free agency does, at least, add an intriguing bit of context to the spectacle of October. The following list includes players active for NLDS and ALDS action; for a comprehensive list of all 2019-20 MLB free agents, see our list here.
If you see any notable errors or omissions, please contact us.
Catchers
Jason Castro (33)
Francisco Cervelli (34)
Robinson Chirinos (36)
Travis d’Arnaud (31)
Tyler Flowers (34) — $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Yan Gomes (32) — $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Martin Maldonado (33)
Russell Martin (37)
Brian McCann (36)
Austin Romine (31)
Matt Wieters (34)
First Basemen
Matt Adams (31) — $4MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
David Freese (37)
Ryan Zimmerman (35) — $18MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Howie Kendrick (36)
Second Basemen
Brian Dozier (33)
Howie Kendrick (36)
Jonathan Schoop (28)
Eric Sogard (34)
Shortstops
Didi Gregorius (30)
Adeiny Hechavarria (31)
Eric Sogard (34)
Third Basemen
Asdrubal Cabrera (34)
Josh Donaldson (34)
David Freese (37)
Anthony Rendon (30)
Eric Sogard (34)
Left Fielders
Brett Gardner (36)
Marcell Ozuna (29)
Gerardo Parra (33)
Center Fielders
Brett Gardner (36)
Billy Hamilton (29) — $7.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Cameron Maybin (33)
Right Fielders
Adam Eaton (31) — $9.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout
Avisail Garcia (29)
Nick Markakis (36) — $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Gerardo Parra (33)
Designated Hitters
Nelson Cruz (39) — $12MM club option with a $300K buyout
Edwin Encarnacion (37) — $20MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Avisail Garcia (29)
Starting Pitchers
Gerrit Cole (29)
Kyle Gibson (32)
Rich Hill (40)
Dallas Keuchel (32)
Wade Miley (33)
Jake Odorizzi (30)
Hyun-Jin Ryu (33)
Stephen Strasburg (31) — can opt out of remaining four years and $100MM
Julio Teheran (29) — $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Adam Wainwright (38)
Right-Handed Relievers
Will Harris (35)
Daniel Hudson (32)
Kenley Jansen (32) — can opt out of remaining two years and $38MM
Fernando Rodney (43)
Sergio Romo (37)
Hector Rondon (32)
Joe Smith (36)
Josh Tomlin (35)
Left-Handed Relievers
Aroldis Chapman (32) — can opt out of remaining two years and $30MM
Sean Doolittle (33) — $6.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Inactive / Injured Players
Dellin Betances (32)
Jerry Blevins (36)
Tony Cingrani (30)
Jedd Gyorko (31)
Jeremy Hellickson (33)
Chris Martin (34)
Collin McHugh (33)
Martín Perez (28)
Michael Pineda (30)
Anthony Swarzak (34)
Jonny Venters (35)
Michael Wacha (28)
AL Notes: Adell, Etch, Mookie
A quick word of update on Angels outfielder Jo Adell, who has been turning heads in the Arizona Fall League–which isn’t to say that eyes weren’t already trained on him to begin with. After a 2019 season that saw Adell hit .289/.359/.475 with ten home runs across three levels and 341 plate appearances, the Kentucky native entered AFL play last month as MLB Pipeline’s 5th-ranked prospect in the game. As Kyle Glaser of Baseball America points out this morning, Adell is bolstering that pedigree with his most recent performance for the Mesa Solar Sox (link).
The 20-year-old Adell, who was selected 10th overall by Los Angeles in the 2017 draft, went 7-for-17 in AFL play last week with a home run and a balanced 5-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Adell reached as high as Triple-A in the Los Angeles system in 2019, although the team may want to see him improve upon the production he posted there in a small sample of 130+ plate appearances (to say nothing of the potential service time considerations involving a prospective star such as Adell). With outfielder Kole Calhoun a possibility to move on in free agency, there does figure, at least, to be some MLB opportunity for the youngster in 2020 when GM Billy Eppler deems him ready.
More from around the AL this Monday morning…
- A sad note of remembrance in recognition of the passing of Orioles organizational fixture Andy Etchebarren, who died this weekend at age 76. Etchebarren, an All-Star in his rookie season of 1966, was an important part of Baltimore’s mid-century dynasty. Perhaps most notably, the backstop helped catch, along with Elrod Hendricks, the Orioles’ four 20-game winners of 1971; it’s probably not un-noteworthy that the man known as “Etch” was also the last man to ever record an at-bat against Dodgers legend Sandy Koufax. After his playing career, as noted in a post from MASN’s Roch Kubatko (link), Etchebarren carved out a nice career for himself as a coach in the Baltimore pipeline, including stints as manager of the club’s Triple-A and Double-A affiliates, and time spent as the bench coach for former manager Davey Johnson.
- The site has already thoroughly explored the ongoing contract outlook for Red Sox superstar Mookie Betts. To recap, the club’s forthcoming CBT trapeze act, Betts’ impending arbitrational raise, and the player’s apparent ambivalence to signing an extension with the team have all coalesced to the point where the near-unthinkable–a trade involving the near-peerless Betts–may be a consideration this offseason. One factor that won’t figure into Betts status for 2020? Organizational tension. As noted in a piece from Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com, the four executives* in charge of Sox operations in the wake of the Dave Dombrowski firing–including assistant GM Eddie Romero–are not holding Betts’ businesslike approach to negotiation against him (link). “I think he’s doing what’s in the best interest of Mookie and I think that’s what athletes should do,” Romero told Cotillo. “Every situation of these is case-by-case. Mookie has been the one who has sacrificed his body and has put in the work. He has the right to decide what he wants to do.” In addition to Romero, team president Sam Kennedy and chairman Tom Werner both comment in Cotillo’s piece on their faith in Betts as both a person and a player, and Romero goes as far as to say that the player has “earned” the right to hit free agency. While this dialogue could just be seen as an encouraging bit of rationality in the front office realm, it is fair to wonder, for those reading tea leaves, whether such a congenial atmosphere could be foreshadowing to an amicable parting of ways between player and team.
*An earlier version of this post mistakenly referred to “four men” running the baseball operations department, when in fact the group of four executives is made up of one woman (Raquel Ferreira) and three men (Eddie Romero, Zack Scott, and Brian O’Halloran). We regret the error.
Cole Hamels On Impending Free Agency
In a post published for The Athletic this morning, reporter Patrick Mooney relayed quotes from Cole Hamels that indicated the pitcher’s openness–if not downright interest–in pitching for an NL Central club next season, regardless of whether or not the Cubs elect to re-sign him (link).
While the main substance of Mooney’s piece, on the whole, attempts to recap an uneven 2019 that saw Hamels in both dominant (pre-All-Star break) and floundering (post-All-Star break) forms, the most interesting takeaway may have been the hurler’s comments regarding his pending free agency. While Hamels was straightforward in saying he would “love” to be a Cub, he pointed out to reporters–and, perhaps, by extension, Cubs president Theo Epstein–that the NL Central has been a comfortable pitching environment for him during his time in Chicago.
“I obviously do very well at Wrigley,” Hamels said in Mooney’s piece, speaking of his free agency options. “Hopefully, that’s what they think about. Otherwise, I know the other teams in the division are going to think about it. If you have to come to Wrigley three different times, I don’t pitch bad there…I know I do very well in the NL Central.”
While this ultimately may amount to little more than a bit of lighthearted dialogue between a veteran pitcher and a beat reporter with whom he has developed rapport, it seems noteworthy that Hamels may already be imagining himself in the uniform of another NL Central club. Certainly, it would be painful for Cubs fans to see Hamels defect after establishing himself as something of a club rival killer during his time on the North Side.
As Mooney points out, Hamels has posted sterling career numbers against NL Central teams in his career, dating back to his time in Philadelphia:
• Hamels vs. Cincinnati: 11-2, 2.30 ERA (20 starts)
• Hamels vs. Milwaukee: 8-5, 3.53 ERA (20 starts)
• Hamels vs. Pittsburgh: 5-4, 2.52 ERA (13 starts)
• Hamels vs. St. Louis: 5-6, 2.21 ERA (17 starts)
Hamels, of course, just concluded the final season of a 6-year/$144MM extension signed with the Phillies in the midst of the 2012 campaign. The burnished 35-year-old lefty was in the midst of a vintage season in 2019, compiling a 6-3 record and 2.98 ERA up until the night of June 28, when he was afflicted with an oblique strain that, presumably, curtailed his availability and performance moving forward; Hamels missed all of July following that injury, before ultimately posting a 1-4 record with a 5.79 ERA in the second half amidst a team-wide Cubs collapse.
Among NL Central teams that could be a factor in luring Hamels away from Chicago, St. Louis could certainly be in play if they lost their own veteran leader in Adam Wainwright (though it’s worth noting that the Cards still have Alex Reyes recovering on ice). The Brewers should be looking for improvement after a one-game playoff ouster, but they may feel ultimately more comfortable in pursuing a re-up with Gio Gonzalez, the lefty veteran they already have in hand. The Reds, meanwhile, have a rather stacked dance card when it comes to 2020 starting pitching, whereas the Pirates don’t figure to be in the market for near-term, high-AAV veteran free agents like Hamels.
Looking ahead to free agency, Hamels may join an interesting caste of experienced, mid-30s veterans who should comprise something of an open market second-tier for clubs that sit out the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes. Like Dallas Keuchel, Rich Hill, and Wainwright, Hamels should offer a cocktail of experience and clubhouse leadership, dashed with a fair amount of risk for injury and regression.
MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins QO Jake Odorizzi?
Jake Odorizzi will take the ball for the Twins tomorrow evening at Target Field. With Minnesota facing elimination, it could be the impending free agent’s final start in their uniform. Odorizzi has started 62 games for the Twins since coming over from the Rays via trade prior to the 2018 season. Have those performances been enough to warrant a qualifying offer?
MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently examined the qualifying offer market for pitchers (and position players, for that matter), noting that Odorizzi presented a borderline case. On the surface, his 2019 numbers would seem to make a QO a no-brainer. This season, Odorizzi worked to 3.51 ERA and 3.36 FIP, each of which ranked in the top 25 among pitchers with 150+ innings. Under the tutelage of first-year pitching coach Wes Johnson, Odorizzi’s stuff ticked up, as his 93 MPH average four-seam fastball, per Brooks Baseball, was a career-high. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he shattered his previous career-best strikeout rate (27.1%, up nearly five points from last season). Further, Odorizzi was essentially immune to the leaguewide home run spike this season, coughing up a career-low 0.91 HR/9. Put it together, and Odorizzi was worth around 4 wins above replacement, per both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, easily worth the approximately $18MM he would lock in if he were to accept a qualifying offer.
Of course, though, teams look beyond a player’s previous-year stats in projecting future performance. Odorizzi doesn’t turn 30 until March and has started at least 28 games in each of his six full MLB seasons, so durability and age are on his side. Yet entering this season, his track record was more that of a back-end innings eater than the #2 starter he seemed to be in 2019. From 2016-2018, Odorizzi worked to a 4.09 ERA with a 4.60 FIP, with one of the league’s lowest ground ball rates causing home run problems. Even in 2019, Odorizzi remained a fly ball pitcher, part of the reason the Twins chose to hold him for Monday in Minnesota rather than having him work in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. It’s difficult to imagine him maintaining an 8.8% HR/FB rate moving forward, and his pre-2019 strikeout and walk numbers were hardly eye-catching. If a few more of Odorizzi’s fly balls begin clearing fences and/or his strikeouts regress to their previous levels, his elite run prevention numbers could bounce back up in a hurry.
It’s also notable that Odorizzi’s pure stuff, even with the aforementioned velocity uptick, isn’t world-beating. Per Statcast, Odorizzi has below-average fastball velocity (23rd percentile), fastball spin (40th percentile) and curveball spin (17th percentile). That’s sure to catch the attention of front offices, who increasingly have turned back to valuing raw stuff on the free agent market. Odorizzi can’t rival someone like Zack Wheeler when it comes to GIF-worthy pitching overlays, and just last offseason we saw Dallas Keuchel, whose multi-year track record dwarfed Odorizzi’s, languish on the free agent market after being tagged with a QO.
There’s also the Twins’ situation to consider. Minnesota only has $19.88MM committed to 2020 salaries, per Baseball Reference. They’re sure to exercise Nelson Cruz’s $12MM option and have a hefty slate of arbitration-eligible players, but they’ll nevertheless enter the offseason with ample financial flexibility. They’ll also have plenty of opportunity in the starting rotation. With Odorizzi, Michael Pineda and Kyle Gibson slated to hit free agency and Martín Pérez looking increasingly likely to be bought out, there’s almost nothing in the way of certainty behind José Berríos. Of course, merely having vacancies in the rotation shouldn’t mean the Twins feel compelled to QO Odorizzi if they feel that’d be a questionable investment.
So we’ll turn it over to you, MLBTR readers. How would you advise baseball ops heads Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to handle Odorizzi’s situation this winter?
(poll link for app users)
Should The Twins Issue Jake Odorizzi A Qualifying Offer?
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Yes 68% (4,937)
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No 32% (2,272)
Total votes: 7,209
Manager Notes: Angels, Maddon, Beltran
Former Cubs manager Joe Maddon is set to interview for the Angels‘ job in the coming days, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Maddon has long been rumored as a leading candidate to succeed Brad Ausmus, and Rosenthal now reports that the feeling is mutual, naming the Halos as Maddon’s top choice. Of course, that two-way interest is at least partially motivated by the extensive history between organization and manager: Maddon spent time as an interim manager with the Angels in 1996 and 1999, and while he didn’t keep that position long-term, Maddon would spend more than thirty years with the Halos organization before departing for Tampa Bay. Maddon should have plenty of interest from other clubs with managerial vacancies, so if the Angels are indeed his ideal destination, he could have his pick of the available jobs. Surely, the Angels would be remiss if they didn’t interview other candidates, so it’s by no means a foregone conclusion, but Maddon to Los Angeles feels like a match made in heaven. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites the Padres as another club that has caught Maddon’s attention, and expects the two sides to arrange a meeting in the near future.
- Former All-Star Carlos Beltran has not been shy about his desire to manage for a big-league club, but he’s waiting on the right situation to present itself, writes Nathalie Alonso of MLB.com. Beltran, who was a candidate to manage the Yankees before Aaron Boone came out ahead, joined the Bombers’ front office as a special adviser prior to the 2018 season. Beltran was recently reported to have declined an interview for the open Padres’ manager position, though there hasn’t been any explanation given. The Mets, who recently fired Mickey Callaway, have also been rumored as a potential fit for Beltran. While there’s been chatter that an allegedly frosty relationship between the ex-Met and team COO Jeff Wilpon would impede such a hire, Beltran said that he would “have to listen” if the Mets came calling. While that doesn’t indicate that he’s clamoring for the job, Beltran seems reluctant to rule out a potential reunion with his former team. As Beltran says, his focus is of course on the contending Yankees for the time being, which means that more clarity might not come to his situation until the end of October. That said, he’s certainly a name to watch as teams seek out their next skipper.
NL Notes: Robles, Wainwright, Wood
On a quiet transactional night in MLB, we’ll take a look at a few playoff and offseason related matters from the National League.
- Nationals center fielder Víctor Robles isn’t in tonight’s lineup for the club’s pivotal NLDS Game 3 matchup against the Dodgers. Per Jamal Collier of MLB.com, that’s at the discretion of manager Dave Martinez, who overruled the rookie’s requests to start in order to be particularly cautious with his prized 22-year-old. Nevertheless, Martinez described Robles’ injury as a “very, very mild” hamstring strain, and noted that the speedster could come off the bench tonight. The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty adds (via Twitter) that the Nationals don’t anticipate any scenario in which they would scratch Robles from their NLDS roster, so it indeed seems an exceedingly minor concern for the defensive stalwart.
- Adam Wainwright, 38, gave a brilliant performance this evening in the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss to the Braves, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It was a vintage performance for the former ace, who gave the Cardinals 171.2 innings of league average pitching (4.19 ERA, 20.5% K%, 8.6% BB%) in the regular season. Clearly, Wainwright can still perform at a high level, but given his age and the upcoming expiration of his one-year contract, there are questions about his future. Wainwright, though, doesn’t sound like a man on the verge of hanging up the spikes, telling Joe Trezza of MLB.com postgame he “never felt for one second that today was going to be (his) last day.” That’s not a definitive statement that he’d be returning to the big leagues, or to St. Louis specifically, but it stands to reason both sides could have interest in a similar incentive-laden arrangement (which Waino went on to maximize for $10MM) as they hammered out last October.
- While Wainwright stayed healthy all season, the same can’t be said for left-hander Alex Wood, who started just seven games for the Reds after they sent two noteworthy prospects to the Dodgers to acquire him, Yasiel Puig, and Kyle Farmer last winter. Dealing with a back injury, Wood was ineffective when he did manage to take the mound, working to a 5.80 ERA with dreadful peripherals. It was hardly the platform season the 28 year-old (29 in January) wanted as he nears free agency for the first time. With the offseason offering an opportunity to get healthy, the sinkerballer tells Bobby Nightengale of Cincinnati.com he’d like to return to the Reds, admitting that his injury-riddled season wasn’t what the organization had in mind when they acquired him. As Nightengale notes, it’s difficult to see the Reds winning a bidding war for Wood given their strong staple of returning starters. That said, president of baseball operations Dick Williams has made clear the organization plans to be aggressive in free agency this offseason and wants to bolster the club’s pitching depth, so perhaps a Wood reunion could be in the cards depending on how his market shakes out.
Free Agent Outlook: Marcell Ozuna
With little in the way of hot stove news during the rising action of the MLB postseason, let’s take a look ahead to this winter’s free agency. In particular, we’ll be evaluating the market for a player who could prove to be one of the offseason’s more intriguing cases: Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna.
After he was traded from the Marlins to St. Louis as part of the post-2017 fire sale in Miami, Ozuna has endured a pair of unspectacular seasons as a Cardinal. That’s not to say he’s been bad, but expectations were high after he slugged 37 home runs in his last season with the Marlins. His struggles in 2018, when he totaled only 23 round-trippers, can be at least partly be attributed to a nagging shoulder injury that plagued him throughout the year and ultimately required surgery. This year, with a healthy shoulder, he has enjoyed a nice uptick in his power numbers, though that has still only translated to a slightly above-average .804 OPS.
When the Cardinals postseason comes to a close, Ozuna will have a chance to hit the open market for the first time, reaching free agency as a 28-year-old outfielder. (He’ll play the 2020 campaign at age 29). That places him among the younger options from which teams will choose, making him arguably the most attractive of this offseason’s outfield class, which is a relatively thin one.
Ozuna, for his part, has expressed a desire to remain in St. Louis beyond this year, calling it a “priority” to ink a contract that will keep him with the Cardinals. However, the Cardinals may not share his enthusiasm for a reunion. John Mozeliak expressed hesitance to discuss an extension with Ozuna, instead opting to postpone that matter until the offseason. Other, cheaper options within the organization could replace Ozuna in the corner outfield, with Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson seemingly ready to contribute.
It seems like a good bet that the Cardinals will tender a qualifying offer to Ozuna, which figures to come in at around $18MM this offseason. That designation would force a signing team to forfeit a draft pick in order to acquire Ozuna’s services.
Many teams might not be convinced that Ozuna is capable of returning to the power numbers that he displayed on his way out of Miami. Still, there are promising signs: Ozuna ranks among baseball’s best in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate, both of which are at career-best marks. His expected statistics—which calculate the expected outcomes of batted balls based on exit velocity and launch angle—paint him as one of the premier offensive performers in baseball.
Another point of concern will be Ozuna’s defensive shortcomings. Although there’s a Gold Glove Award on his mantle, Ozuna has provided little value as an outfielder since departing Miami. He grades as below-average in Statcast’s outs above average and outfielder jump metrics—ranking in the 13th and 29th percentile, respectively. On the positive side, he is credited with 2 DRS, thanks in large part to a strong throwing arm. That’s not a bad mark at all, but teams may be hesitant to project that performance into his thirties as he seeks a multi-year deal.
Could Ozuna be a candidate to accept the qualifying offer? Sure, there’s a solid chance that he could eclipse the total value with a multi-year contract on the open market (though almost certainly at a lower AAV), but accepting the one-year deal could grant Ozuna’s wish to stay in St. Louis and attempt to rebuild his value, perhaps with an eye on a contract extension with the Cardinals or another chance at free agency following the 2020 season.
As we all well know, the free-agent landscape has been notoriously cruel over the last two years, and Ozuna feels like a player who could be strongly affected by the evolving market. As a bat-first left fielder nearing his thirties, teams might be reluctant to invest heavily in a profile that depends mostly on offensive production—which, generally speaking, has been underwhelming since Ozuna joined the Cardinals. If Ozuna and his reps get an inkling that his free-agent market may not be as expansive as they hoped, that could give another reason to regroup and return to the Cardinals under the qualifying offer.
However, the allure of a multi-year contract with a total guarantee exceeding that of the QO may be too much to resist for Ozuna, a first-time free agent in his prime years. Even if his most likely outcome is a two- or three-year deal with an AAV of about $13-16MM, Ozuna may not have another chance to test the open market as arguably the best player at his position. That alone might incline a team to overpay for him. Regardless, as we head towards another offseason of intrigue, Ozuna may be a name to follow in a free-agent class that lacks star-power position players.