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Poll: Where Will David Robertson Sign?

By Nick Deeds | March 3, 2025 at 4:58pm CDT

With the calendar now flipped to March, the overwhelming majority of the league’s top free agents have already signed. There are still a handful of stragglers remaining on the market, however, and one of the most notable among those is veteran closer David Robertson.

With his 40th birthday just around the corner, Robertson is still searching for a landing spot ahead of what would be his 17th season in the majors. After a ten-year stretch as a quality late-inning arm for the Yankees and White Sox from 2009 to 2018 where he posted a 2.76 ERA (152 ERA+) with a nearly matching 2.77 FIP, Robertson faded from the spotlight for a few years due to injuries, leading him to pitch in just 19 games total between 2019 and 2021. While many veterans who miss the majority of three consecutive seasons due to injury in their mid-30s either retire or fail to re-establish themselves in the majors, Robertson picked right back up where he left off after signing with the Cubs in 2022.

Since then, Robertson’s played for five different teams across three seasons and found plenty of success. The righty has pitched to a 2.82 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.24 FIP in 201 innings of work with a 31.1% strikeout rate. With 40 saves in that time, Robertson is a capable ninth-inning pitcher who’s shown he’s also comfortable handling a setup role. That role flexibility is somewhat rare for elite veteran arms, and could make Robertson a viable option even for teams with a set closer in the ninth inning. Robertson’s overall profile would suggest that he’s likely to land a deal in line with other quality late-inning veterans like Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, and Jose Leclerc. With that being said, given the late point in the calendar and Robertson’s age, it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock if clubs had some concerns about his ability to get fully up to speed in time for Opening Day on March 27.

In terms of potential suitors, perhaps the most on-paper fit for Robertson’s services is the Diamondbacks. Arizona made no bones about their desire to add a late-inning arm with closing experience throughout the winter, but they’ve been unsuccessful in that pursuit to this point and instead have added middle relief veterans like Kendall Graveman and Shelby Miller as they look to add experienced arms to their relief corps. Robertson would be an immediate and substantial upgrade, but it’s difficult to see a financial fit between the sides given that Robertson is likely in line for a healthy one-year guarantee while the Diamondbacks are already at a franchise record level of spending after an offseason that saw them add star right-hander Corbin Burnes to the rotation. That could lead the club to focus instead on its internal options, a possibility MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.

Plenty of other teams have been connected to Robertson throughout the winter aside from Arizona, though they all come with question marks of their own. The incumbent Rangers added plenty of talent to their bullpen this winter, but lack a proper closer after watching Robertson, Leclerc, and Kirby Yates all depart in free agency this winter. That’s enough to make Robertson a logical fit for the club on paper, but much like Arizona, the club appears to be at or near its budget capacity for the 2025 campaign, which would make adding Robertson to the fold a difficult task.

The Cubs and Tigers were both connected to Robertson at various points throughout the winter, and a return to Chicago in particularly was frequently bandied about in the rumor mill throughout the offseason. Those rumors persisted even after the Cubs added Ryan Pressly to handle the ninth inning, but their subsequent trade with the Dodgers to acquire Ryan Brasier may have put an end to their pursuit of Robertson. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not been connected to Robertson in earnest since signing right-hander Tommy Kahnle, although its worth noting that Kahnle has just eight career saves and that the Tigers were reported to be interested in specifically adding an arm with closing experience to their late-inning mix.

While those are the only teams that have been explicitly connected to Robertson this winter, there’s plenty of other potential suitors for his services. The Red Sox are known to have been in the market earlier this winter for a right-handed reliever who could join Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman in their late-inning mix. The Cardinals are known to covet a veteran right-handed relief arm to replace Kittredge in their bullpen, and the Phillies lost both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this winter while only adding Jordan Romano. If a rebuilding club like the Marlins or White Sox was willing to invest some money into the big league roster, either one could reunite with Robertson in the first half before shopping him at the trade deadline for future talent.

Where do MLBTR readers think Robertson will ultimately land? Have your say in the poll below:

Where will David Robertson sign?
Yankees 10.19% (865 votes)
Rangers 9.48% (805 votes)
Red Sox 9.42% (800 votes)
Cubs 9.13% (775 votes)
Braves 8.53% (724 votes)
Mets 7.34% (623 votes)
Phillies 4.21% (357 votes)
Blue Jays 3.90% (331 votes)
Diamondbacks 3.84% (326 votes)
Tigers 3.31% (281 votes)
Orioles 2.97% (252 votes)
Dodgers 2.51% (213 votes)
Angels 2.26% (192 votes)
Pirates 2.14% (182 votes)
White Sox 1.87% (159 votes)
Reds 1.85% (157 votes)
Padres 1.77% (150 votes)
Athletics 1.76% (149 votes)
Giants 1.65% (140 votes)
Cardinals 1.60% (136 votes)
Brewers 1.60% (136 votes)
Mariners 1.45% (123 votes)
Royals 1.25% (106 votes)
Astros 1.18% (100 votes)
Twins 1.06% (90 votes)
Nationals 1.04% (88 votes)
Marlins 0.81% (69 votes)
Rays 0.70% (59 votes)
Guardians 0.68% (58 votes)
Rockies 0.51% (43 votes)
Total Votes: 8,489
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls David Robertson

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Luis Gil To Be Shut Down For At Least Six Weeks Due To Lat Strain

By Darragh McDonald | March 3, 2025 at 3:50pm CDT

Yankees manager Aaron Boone informed reporters, including Greg Joyce of The New York Post, that right-hander Luis Gil has a high-grade lat strain. Gil will be shut down from throwing for at least six weeks. Even if he is declared healthy at that point, he would effectively have to restart his spring ramp-up period, so he’s likely out until late May or early June even in a best-case scenario.

It was reported last week that Gil had experienced some shoulder tightness during a bullpen session and would be going for an MRI. It seems that a significant strain was detected which will impact the start of his 2025 season. Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relayed over a minute of Boone’s comments, during which the skipper said there are still some further examinations to be done which could reveal more info but that the six-week no-throw is confirmed.

It’s obviously a frustrating development for both Gil and the Yankees. The young pitcher just won the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2024. He tossed 151 2/3 innings over 29 starts, allowing 3.50 earned runs per nine. His 12.1% walk rate was on the high side but his 26.8% strikeout rate was quite strong.

That excellent season came on the heels of a lengthy injury absence. Gil had a brief major league debut in 2021 before Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. He returned and posted his aforementioned excellent results last year but now his health is now going to be at the forefront again.

The Yankees will now have to adjust their rotation plans, though the good news is that the solution should be pretty simple. The Yanks made a massive $218MM investment in Max Fried this offseason, which seemed to give them a rotation surplus. The club had an on-paper group of Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Gil. That seemingly left Marcus Stroman on the outside looking in and the club reportedly tried to find ways to trade Stroman and the remainder of his contract.

No deal came together, so Stroman reported to camp and has been getting stretched out as a starter. With Gil now set to be on the shelf for a significant time, Stroman should be able to step into a rotation spot without issue.

Perhaps the rotation will again be crowded a few months from now if Gil is able to get healthy, though it’s also possible that other injuries will change the situation between now and then. Though the Yanks are still slated to go into the season with a strong front five, the depth has been thinned out a bit this spring. In addition to losing Gil, prospect Chase Hampton required Tommy John surgery. JT Brubaker, who projected to be a long reliever in the bullpen, suffered three fractured ribs trying to evade a comebacker and has an uncertain timeline.

Behind the rotation of Cole, Fried, Rodón, Schmidt and Stroman, perhaps the out-of-options Yoendrys Gómez can make the Opening Day Roster in the long relief role. Will Warren and Brent Headrick are on the roster and have options, perhaps meaning they will be in the Triple-A rotation. Carlos Carrasco is in camp as some veteran non-roster depth.

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New York Yankees Newsstand Luis Gil Marcus Stroman

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Clark: MLBPA Expects Lockout After 2026 Season

By Darragh McDonald | March 3, 2025 at 2:36pm CDT

Tony Clark, executive director of the MLB Players Association, expects the league to implement a lockout after the 2026 season. “Unless I am mistaken, the league has come out and said there’s going to be a work stoppage,” Clark said, per Barry M. Bloom of Sportico. “So, I don’t think I’m speaking out of school in that regard.” The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire on December 1 of 2026.

That quote is in response to some previous comments made by Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred about a month ago. “In a bizarre way, it’s actually a positive,” Manfred said to Evan Drellich of The Athletic last month. “There is leverage associated with an offseason lockout and the process of collective bargaining under the [National Labor Relations Act] works based on leverage. The great thing about offseason lockouts is the leverage that exists gets applied between the bargaining parties.” He also praised a lockout as being preferable to in-season negotiations, saying that it’s “like using a .22 (caliber firearm), as opposed to a shotgun or a nuclear weapon.”

Clark disagreed in response at that time. “Players know from first-hand experience that a lockout is neither routine nor positive,” Clark said. “It’s a weapon, plain and simple, implemented to pressure players and their families by taking away a player’s ability to work.”

Relations between the league and the union have been combative in recent years and the current collective bargaining agreement was agreed to after a lockout which lasted several months. The previous CBA expired on December 1 of 2021 and the league instituted a lockout that very night. The negotiations continued into the spring, with a new agreement getting done on March 10 of 2022. That led to a rushed ramp-up to the 2022 season, though a full 162-game schedule was still completed via some scheduled doubleheaders.

Given that the relations between the two sides haven’t markedly improved, many in the baseball world expect another lockout to follow the expiration of the current CBA. Manfred’s comments only added to that suspicion and it seems Clark and the union are operating under that assumption.

There are many issues that will need to be discussed between now and then. There will be the ever-present topics of player compensation and revenue sharing, as well as more complex issues such as an international draft. The two sides are free to discuss these issues at any time but comments from Manfred make it seem unlikely that any progress will be made well in advance.

“I’m one that likes to bargain early, but we’re still two years away, even if you’re thinking you want to bargain early,” Manfred said about a month ago. “We got time on that front. And I think the time is particularly important right now, because we do have things going on in terms of the economics of the game — local media being the principal one — that the longer we wait, the more it evolves, the better decisions we’re going to make.”

From the players’ side, they seem to be assuming that Manfred is trying to generate leverage through the press. “I know that a lot of what Rob Manfred says in the media is posturing,” Giants third baseman Matt Chapman said recently to John Shea of the San Francisco Standard. “They’re all negotiating tactics. He tries to create his narrative.”

One topic that usually comes up in CBA discussions is a salary cap, though the MLBPA has always considered that a nonstarter. Evan Drellich of The Athletic recently reported that the owners are mulling a push for a cap when the next round of CBA talks gets going in earnest. David Rubenstein, principal owner of the Orioles, spoke publicly in favor of a cap in January. Clark, however, reiterated that the union has no desire to agree to such a measure.

“We remain of the mind, as we have over the last 50 or 60 years, that the industry does not need it,” Clark said today to Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun. “It is not necessary. Whether it’s from a ‘competitive balance’ standpoint, or whether it’s from the ability of the industry to continue to grow and move forward, all of those things have happened in the absence of [a salary cap] and our game has thrived as a result.”

Many fans view a salary cap as the simplest way to combat certain inequities in baseball. That’s despite the fact that the sport hasn’t had recent dynastic runs like other leagues. MLB hasn’t seen a repeat champion since the 1998-2000 Yankees. There are huge gaps in terms of spending, with the Dodgers projected by RosterResource to have a $390MM payroll this year with some other clubs like the Marlins are down near $70MM. But despite that massive gap, those two clubs have the same number of World Series trophies over the past 35 years.

Still, there are fans of small-market clubs who feel overpowered when it comes to competitive balance. “There are ways of addressing the system that aren’t salary or cap related or require the restrictions of player salaries as the answer to every one of these questions,” Clark said, per Bloom. Presumably, Clark was referring to things like the fact that smaller-market clubs get extra picks in the draft via the competitive balance round as well as larger pools of bonus money to spend on international players, or perhaps the revenue-sharing agreements which could always be altered.  Those measures have helped clubs like the Rays, Guardians and Brewers stay consistently competitive despite far less spending capacity than some of their fellow clubs.

The larger point is that MLB is in fairly healthy shape overall. Maury Brown of Forbes recently reported that the league’s revenues hit a record $12.1 billion in 2024, without even accounting for alternate revenue streams such as from commercial real estate projects connected to ballparks. Various metrics have suggested the implementation of the pitch clock has helped baseball’s popularity more generally, in terms of ticket sales and TV ratings. Clark seemed to reference that situation in comments relayed by Weyrich today, suggesting that the proposed cap is less about competitive balance and more about increasing profits for owners.

“At this point in time, despite the fact that there was an announcement that the industry itself is doing better than it ever has, despite the fact that there was an announcement that there’s more viewership and more attendance than it has been in the last 10 or so years, you’re hearing the rhetoric around a salary cap because there’s an interest in moving more of that revenue from one side of the equation to the other.”

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Collective Bargaining Agreement Matt Chapman Tony Clark

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2025 at 2:30pm CDT

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Front Office Originals MLBTR Chats Membership

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Espada: Astros Plan For Altuve To Spend “Majority” Of Time In Left Field

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2025 at 2:05pm CDT

The concept of Jose Altuve moving from second base to left field first emerged when the Astros reengaged with Alex Bregman late in the offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported at the time that there were talks of re-signing Bregman, sliding Isaac Paredes from third base to second base and shifting Altuve to the outfield. Many initially took that with a heavy dose of skepticism; Altuve, after all, has played all of six major league innings at a position other than second base — and they were all at shortstop.

As Houston brass continued to paint a Bregman reunion as a long shot, however, they kept getting Altuve work in left field. Both manager Joe Espada and GM Dana Brown spoke about wanting to get some looks at Altuve in left and wanting to reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time on the outfield grass. Even when Bregman signed in Boston, the Altuve/left field experiment continued to progress.

The position change seems less like an experiment and more like a reality by the day, and Espada’s latest comments only further that shift. Speaking to the Astros beat this morning, Espada left open the door for Altuve to get some playing time at second base but also suggested it will no longer be his primary position (via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

“Right now, the plan is for [Altuve] to play the majority of his games in left field,” Espada stated. “The days that he plays second base opens the door for [Alvarez] maybe getting a start in left field, someone getting a DH day. So this move allows us to be creative and do stuff like that.”

Espada added that frequently shuttling Altuve back-and-forth between the two positions “is something that I am going to avoid.” The second-year manager stopped short of outright proclaiming Altuve the Astros’ new everyday left fielder, but it certainly seems things are trending in that direction.

Altuve is a former Gold Glove winner at second base, but his defense has declined considerably as he’s entered his mid-30s. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t as down on Altuve’s glovework during that three-year period but does agree he’s been a negative since 2023, including a particularly rough -8 mark in 2024.

That’s problematic in and of itself, but it’s particularly egregious when Houston has one of the best second base defenders in the sport (statistically speaking) on its roster already. Mauricio Dubon hasn’t even logged a full season’s worth of second base innings in his career, but in 1154 frames at the position he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA. The Astros also inked longtime Rockies second baseman Brendan Rodgers, another plus defender at second base, to a minor league deal and invited him to camp.

At the very least, when ground-ball pitchers like Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are starting games — Valdez is the top ground-ball starter in the sport over the past three seasons — it makes sense to have a superior defender in there. Either Dubon or Rodgers would fit the bill. Espada’s comments make it sound like Altuve is being pushed to left field more frequently than that, however.

Houston’s decidedly lackluster outfield mix is surely a factor as well. Owner Jim Crane seemed determined to dip under the luxury tax threshold after paying the tax in 2024, and as a result the outfield looks thinner than at any point in recent memory. The Astros traded their final season of control over Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in a deal netting new third baseman Isaac Paredes, rotation candidate Hayden Wesneski and new top prospect Cam Smith. With Tucker gone and Alvarez ticketed for more DH time in ’25, Altuve joins a mix of Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and free agent signee Ben Gamel in the outfield. There are still a handful of interesting free agents out there — David Peralta or Alex Verdugo could fit the ’Stros — but Crane’s preference is to remain south of the $241MM tax threshold; the Astros are currently at $236.8MM, per RosterResource.

If Altuve’s outfield move yields early dividends, it’s easy enough to see it becoming a permanent arrangement. The nine-time All-Star is entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension signed 13 months ago. He’s owed $30MM each year from 2025-27 before his salary greatly reduces to $10MM per season in 2028-29. That extension also came with a $15MM upfront signing bonus that has already been paid out.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Jose Altuve Mauricio Dubon

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Nationals Re-Sign Kyle Finnegan

By Darragh McDonald | March 3, 2025 at 1:02pm CDT

March 3: Finnegan’s $6MM salary has $4MM of deferrals, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. This seems to drop the net present value to $5.7MM.

February 27: The Nats made it official today, signing Finnegan with Stone Garrett designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

February 25: The Nationals are bringing back Kyle Finnegan, with Robert Murray of FanSided reporting that the two sides have agreed to a one-year contract. The Warner Sports Management client gets a $6MM guarantee, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Nats have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

Finnegan, 33, spent the past five years with the Nats. He made 291 appearances for the club in that time, allowing 3.56 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 23.5% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.5% clip and got grounders on 47.5% of balls in play. He also took over the closer’s job in that time. He earned 11 saves in both 2021 and 2022, then got that number to 28 in 2023 and 38 last year.

The Nats could have retained Finnegan for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a salary of $8.6MM, a bump from the $5.1MM he made in 2024. They somewhat surprisingly decided to walk away instead, non-tendering him back in November.

Though that move initially raised some eyebrows, there were some concerning numbers under the hood. His ERA has held fairly steady recently but his strikeout rate has been ticking down. He struck out 26.1% of batters faced in 2022, but that number fell to the 22% range in each of the past two seasons. His 2024 campaign was also fairly lopsided. He had a 2.45 ERA and 26.1% strikeout rate in the first half but a 5.79 ERA and 16.4% strikeout rate in the second.

He has also been susceptible to some loud contact in his career, especially lately. His 91.3 mile per hour exit velocity last year was considered by Statcast to be in the first percentile of qualified pitchers. His 48.1% hard hit rate was in the second percentile. In 2023, he allowed a 92.2 mph average exit velo (first percentile) and 47.5% hard hit rate (fourth percentile).

In hindsight, the decision not to tender him a contract looks like a wise one for the Nats. Though the righty received interest from some other clubs this winter, the Nats stayed in contact with Finnegan and were able to bring him back while saving a few million bucks relative to his projected price range.

The Nats have been rebuilding for the past few years and their offseason has mostly been about adding solid short-term veterans to their young core. Those vets can stabilize the roster and will ideally turn themselves into deadline trade chips if Washington isn’t contending in July.

In the bullpen, they have signed Jorge López and Lucas Sims to one-year deals, with Finnegan now joining them in that category. Derek Law is back for his final season of club control, retained via arbitration. Colin Poche is in camp as a non-roster invitee and is just about two months shy of six years of big league service time. If he’s added to the roster, the Nats would have five experienced bullpen arms slated for free agency after the season, making them logical summer trade candidates.

In the interim, there will be opportunities for younger arms to pitch around those guys. Jose A. Ferrer has just 66 big league innings but has posted huge ground ball rates in that time. Rule 5 pick Evan Reifert has to hold a spot or else be offered back to the Rays. Perhaps one of the club’s many starting candidates will end up in the bullpen as a long reliever. Eduardo Salazar, Zach Brzykcy and Orlando Ribalta are also on the 40-man but each has less than a year of big league service and can be optioned to the minors.

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Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals Kyle Finnegan

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Pirates Claim Justin Lawrence

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2025 at 12:23pm CDT

The Pirates have claimed right-hander Justin Lawrence off waivers from the Rockies, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Colorado placed Lawrence on waivers over the weekend. The Bucs haven’t formally announced the claim and will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate Lawrence once the transaction becomes official.

Lawrence, 30, agreed to a $975K salary earlier this offseason when he avoided arbitration. The Pirates will take on that salary and hope to coax a rebound effort out of the right-hander. Lawrence was roughed up for a brutal 6.49 earned run average in 2024 but was a quality late-inning arm for the Rox in 2023, saving 11 games and picking up 11 holds en route to a 3.72 ERA.

The 6’3″ Lawrence has shown the ability to miss bats and generate grounders in the past, though command has long been an issue. He fanned 24% of his opponents and posted a 48.5% ground-ball rate for Colorado during that strong 2023 season while sitting 95.4 mph on his sinker and 83.8 mph on his slider. Both pitches lost 0.8 mph in 2024, however, and Lawrence saw his strikeout rate plummet to 16.1% while his already problematic 11% walk rate crept up to 11.8%.

Lawrence did post a career-high 53.1% ground-ball rate, and he was far better on the road than at Coors Field, as most would expect. He was tagged for a disastrous 8.49 ERA in Denver compared to a more palatable 4.50 mark on the road. He had pronounced home-road splits in 2023 as well: 5.40 at Coors Field and 1.62 when the Rockies were away. Over the past two seasons, Lawrence has a 6.69 ERA at Coors Field and a 2.98 mark on the road.

The Pirates won’t be able to send Lawrence to Triple-A. He’s out of minor league options. As such, he’s now a virtual lock to make the Opening Day bullpen, barring an injury. With last year’s poor results and several other arms ahead of him on the bullpen pecking order, Lawrence probably won’t jump right into high-leverage work. He could certainly pitch his way into that role, as he did in ’23, but Pittsburgh will likely hope for a David Bednar rebound in the ninth inning with Colin Holderman, Dennis Santana and Carmen Mlodzinski all setting up. Lefties Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, both signed as free agents, give skipper Derek Shelton at least two southpaw options. Joey Wentz, Kyle Nicolas, Chase Shugart and Peter Strzelecki are all on the 40-man roster as well. Wentz and Strzelecki are out of options. Notable non-roster invitees to camp include Ryan Borucki, Tanner Rainey, Burch Smith and Hunter Stratton.

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Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Justin Lawrence

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Submit Your Questions For A Mailbag Episode Of The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | March 3, 2025 at 10:15am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the major free agents all now off the board, there’s less big news to discuss, giving us more pod time to focus on digging through the mailbag.

If you have a question about a past transaction, a look ahead to the rest of the spring, the upcoming 2025 season or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

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Sean Murphy Out Four To Six Weeks With Cracked Rib

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2025 at 9:56am CDT

Braves catcher Sean Murphy has a cracked rib on the left side of his ribcage and will be out for the next four to six weeks, manager Brian Snitker announced this morning (link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). He sustained the injury when he was hit by a pitch during a Grapefruit League game this past Friday.

The injury opens the door for top prospect Drake Baldwin to potentially make his big league debut on Opening Day, though Baldwin is not yet on the 40-man roster and will likely still need to earn the job with a nice showing in camp. Since Atlanta surprisingly declined Travis d’Arnaud’s option at the start of the offseason and let him walk in free agency, the other in-house options include Chadwick Tromp (who’s on the 40-man roster) and veteran non-roster invitees Curt Casali and Sandy Leon.

Murphy, 30, is entering his third season with the Braves and will miss the beginning of the season for a second consecutive year. An oblique strain suffered on Opening Day last year sent Murphy to the injured list on March 30 and sidelined him into late May. That was the first major league IL placement of Murphy’s career, but with the season set to open in just over three weeks, he’ll all but assuredly start the 2025 campaign with his second career IL stay.

The 2024 season was the worst of Murphy’s career. It clearly didn’t start on a high note with that early oblique injury, but upon activation from the injured list he didn’t hit anywhere near his prior standards, slashing just .193/.284/.352 in 264 plate appearances. He still smacked 10 homers and graded as a strong defender, but Murphy’s strikeout rate climbed to its highest point since 2021 (25.4%).

More damaging was a huge spike in both Murphy’s ground-ball rate (career-high 53.9%) and infield fly rate. Among the 324 players who tallied 250 plate appearances in 2024, only 12 hit a higher rate of grounders than Murphy. For a player ranked in the eighth percentile in Statcast’s average sprint speed, that’s clearly suboptimal. Beyond the influx of ground-balls, roughly one in six of Murphy’s fly-balls was a hapless pop-up to the infield. He entered the 2024 season with only 9% of his flies being of the infield variety (and just 3.8% in 2023).

Murphy’s struggles really date back to September of 2023. The first five months of his Braves tenure could scarcely have gone better. He slashed .271/.379/.520 with 20 homers in 383 plate appearances, making the All-Star team and looking every bit like the star catcher Atlanta envisioned when trading for and extending him. Murphy hit just .111/.273/.178 in 55 September plate appearances in ’23, but given his track record that seemed like little more than a late slump.

Perhaps that was indeed the case, but with Murphy’s rough 2024 season now tacked onto that poor finish the year prior, he’s running a pretty lengthy stretch of struggles at the plate. In his past 329 plate appearances — including ten in the playoffs — he’s lugging a .181/.280/.319 batting line.

Of course, any talk of Murphy’s recent struggles should mention that they’re short-lived relative to his longstanding all-around production. From the time of his 2019 debut through August 2023, Murphy hit .237/.333/.434 with premium defense. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% better than an average hitter at the plate, which is even more impressive for his position, as the average catcher in that span tended to be around 12% worse than average with the bat. From 2019-23, Murphy ranked third among all catchers in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, trailing only J.T. Realmuto and (much more narrowly) Will Smith.

He’ll look to get back on track once he’s past this rib injury, but Murphy’s looming IL stint does give the aforementioned Baldwin an opportunity at his MLB debut. The 23-year-old is widely considered among the sport’s top 100 prospects. Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2022 split the 2024 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .276/.370/.423 with 16 homers, a 13.1% walk rate and a 17.2% strikeout rate. He’s not considered the super-premium defender that Murphy is, but scouting reports have credited him with improving defense. Baseball America credits his ability to manage a pitching staff as a particular plus element of his defensive game.

The Braves aren’t going to want to have Baldwin up on the big league roster without regular at-bats available to him. It’s possible that he hits well enough this spring to break camp and then forces the issue further by getting out to a hot start in the majors. In that scenario, perhaps Murphy and Baldwin could shoulder a roughly even split of the workload behind the plate. That’d keep both fresh and would mirror many other catching situations around the league, as several clubs have moved away from one iron man catcher and a seldom-used backup (as was more common in prior generations). If Baldwin struggles, though, he could always be sent to Triple-A for further development. He’s still less than three years from being drafted, after all, and has all of 141 games above A-ball under his belt.

The Braves have Murphy signed at $15MM per season through 2028, plus a club option over the former All-Star’s 2029 campaign. Baldwin has yet to debut, meaning he has six years of club control — or nearly seven, if the team keeps him in the minors for more than a couple of weeks in 2025 but bring him to the majors for the remainder of the year.

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Atlanta Braves Chadwick Tromp Curt Casali Sandy Leon Sean Murphy

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The Opener: Yankees, Lawrence, Tigers

By Nick Deeds | March 3, 2025 at 9:02am CDT

On the heels of a busy morning around the league, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Yankees await imaging results:

The Yankees and their fans are waiting with bated breath for news on a pair of potentially key players for the 2025 club: right-hander Luis Gil and veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu. Gil underwent an MRI on his shoulder over the weekend after feeling what the club described as “tightness” in the area, while LeMahieu underwent imagining of his own after he “tweaked” a calf muscle on the basepaths during his first Spring Training game of the year. LeMahieu appeared to be the favorite to handle third base entering the season for the Yankees, while Gil was all but assured of the final spot in the rotation behind Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt.

If Gil ends up missing time, it appears likely the Yankees would turn to veteran Marcus Stroman to round out the rotation after coming up empty in their efforts to trade him this winter. At third base, a platoon of Oswaldo Cabrera and Oswald Peraza seems to be the most likely outcome if LeMahieu misses time and no external additions make their way into the conversation.

2. Lawrence on waivers:

Over the weekend, it was reported that right-hander Justin Lawrence was placed on waivers by the Rockies in a somewhat unusual move for this juncture of the calendar. If Lawrence is claimed by a rival club, they’ll assume his $925K salary for 2025 and he’ll depart the Rockies for that organization. If he goes unclaimed, Colorado would have the option to outright him off the 40-man roster but could also simply keep him in the fold in his current role. Lawrence, 30, is an intriguing potential rebound candidate after struggling badly in 2024 but flashing past success at Coors Field despite the difficult conditions for pitching. Given the 48-hour window associated with waivers, a resolution to Lawrence’s placement on waivers should be coming in relatively short order.

3. Tigers reeling after outfield injuries:

It’s been a tough few days for the Tigers, as what once looked like an excess of potential position player options has been picked apart by injuries. Friday saw infielder/outfielder Matt Vierling ruled out for Opening Day due to a rotator cuff strain. Shortly thereafter, center fielder Parker Meadows had his own status for the start of the season thrown into question by a nerve issue in his right arm. Meadows has not been ruled out for Opening Day at this point, and the ailment could prove to be a relatively short-term issue. Even so, Detroit will now have to plan as though their starting right fielder and their starting center fielder will both miss the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Frustrating as that is for Vierling, Meadows, and the Tigers, it does open up opportunities for other young players. Notably, outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy and slugger Spencer Torkelson could now have the opportunity to force their way back into the lineup as the club’s top right-handed bats who can help step in for Vierling. Malloy could simply replace Vierling in the outfield, or the club could shift Kerry Carpenter to right field, thereby opening the DH spot for either Malloy or Torkelson.

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The Opener

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