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Nightengale’s Latest: Martinez, Encarnacion, Darvish, Arrieta

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As sparring continues over the ongoing free agent freeze — see Boras v. Halem, Clark v. Manfred — Bob Nightengale of USA Today takes an interesting look at how he believes the market might shake out for the top available players. His overall analysis and predictions are well worth a look, but a few items of information bear highlighting as part of the market landscape.

  • Slugger J.D. Martinez was the focus of a skirmish yesterday in the war of words, with some sparring over the fact that the Red Sox have not upped their longstanding offer — which evidently still stands at a previously reported five-year, $125MM level. Per Nightengale, the only other offer on the table right now is from the Diamondbacks, but it’s just a one-year deal. Clearly, all involved have reason to anticipate that there’d be greater interest than that from other organizations, but it’s a notable point in relation to Martinez’s hopes for generating pressure on the Sox.
  • Notably, too, the Red Sox are perhaps still aware of other means of fulfilling their desire for right-handed power. Nightengale says the organization spoke with the Indians earlier in the offseason about a potential deal that would have brought Edwin Encarnacion to Boston. Whether or not there’s any plausible hope of reviving those discussions isn’t clear, though, and the Sox are said not to have been willing to send Jackie Bradley Jr. to Cleveland. Clearly, that’s no surprise, as Bradley is a much younger and more affordable player who still offers plenty of value to the Sox. Indeed, it’s amply arguable that Bradley is a more valuable overall performer than is Encarnacion.
  • Top free agent starter Yu Darvish is sitting on multiple five-year offers, per Nightengale. At the moment, he’s still hoping an organization will decide to give him an extra year — or, in a longer-shot scenario, that the Dodgers or Yankees will find a way to move other contracts to open the door to a Darvish signing. For the most part, this seems to represent a continuation of the status quo, as is the case for the other top starters.
  • As for Jake Arrieta, we have not heard a ton of public chatter. There isn’t much new, it seems, but Nightengale does suggest that one hypothetical possibility isn’t likely: the incumbent Cubs have “barely even engaged in contract talks” with their former staff ace, per the report. That is not very surprising, of course. The sides already know one another (and their respective bargaining positions) quite well. And it’s clear that, while a reunion has always remained hypothetically possible, both team and player intended to explore alternatives during the winter. Still, it’s notable that they have evidently not circled back around to one another to this point.

Orioles To Re-Sign Craig Gentry

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The Orioles have struck a minor-league deal to bring back outfielder Craig Gentry, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Gentry receives a MLB spring invite and could earn $900K in the majors.

The 34-year-old has seen action in each of the past nine MLB campaigns, including a 77-game run with the O’s last year. He took only 117 plate appearances in that span, but did produce a useful .257/.333/.386 slash line. The right-handed hitter performed much better against lefties, as he has for most of his career.

Gentry will likely battle for a bench spot in camp, with players such as the right-handed-hitting Joey Rickard, switch-hitting Anthony Santander, and lefty-swinging Jaycob Brugman also in the same general mix. The Orioles will need to give at least one spot to a lefty bat — perhaps one that’s not yet in the organization — but figure to have at least one reserve spot open to competition.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/7/18

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We’ll track the most recent minor MLB transactions here:

  • The Red Sox have re-signed outfielder Steve Selsky to a minors pact, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Boston claimed him last winter from the Reds, but he received only a brief shot at the majors. Selsky spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he posted a mediocre .215/.270/.360 slash in 322 plate appearances, though he has been more productive in prior seasons in the upper minors.
  • Emmanuel Burriss is joining the Angels on a minor-league deal, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). He’d earn at a $800K rate at the MLB level. Burriss, 33, is a long way removed from seeing frequent bench work with the Giants but has briefly touched the majors in each of the past two seasons. He’s just a .237/.300/.266 hitter through 856 total MLB plate appearances but is obviously seen as a worthy veteran depth piece to have in an organization.

Joe Girardi Joins MLB Network Studio Team

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Former Yankees skipper Joe Girardi has joined the MLB Network as a studio analyst. The network announced the hiring, which Michael McCarthy of the Sporting News reported this morning.

It came as something of a surprise when the Yanks announced in late October that they would not seek to work out a new deal with Girardi, whose contract expired after his tenth season running the dugout. The team went on to hire Aaron Boone, who had himself worked as a TV analyst with ESPN after wrapping up his playing days.

Upon his entry onto the managerial free agent market, some wondered whether Girardi might catch on with another organization. In particular, to that point the Nationals had not yet hired Davey Martinez to take over. It turns out there was at least some contact between the Nats and Girardi, though clearly interest never developed.

With the move, Girardi will remain in the eye of the baseball-watching public throughout the coming season. Just what managerial gigs will come open during or after the 2018 campaign isn’t yet known, of course, but we can safely predict that Girardi will be among the first candidates talked about in future hiring rounds.

Market Notes: Orioles, Lynn, Dickey, Braves

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The Orioles have recently begun talks with free agent righty Lance Lynn, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), though the report also suggests that there’s no particular momentum toward an agreement. It’s still anyone’s guess how the Baltimore rotation will be filled out. Despite entering the winter with three open starting jobs, the O’s only 40-man rotation addition to this point is Michael Kelly, a minor-league free agent who has yet to appear in the majors. With Lynn’s own market still largely undeveloped, it’s not surprising to hear of this link, though the question remains whether the Orioles will really open the pocketbook for a starter.

  • Of course, other organizations are arguably in a similar position with regard to Lynn. Even taking a pessimistic view of his future, he profiles as a quality back-end starter that would upgrade just about every rotation in baseball. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argued recently that the Cardinals ought to be ready to grab Lynn — at least, if he can be had for a cheaper-than-expected contract. A similar sentiment has been batted around by Mets writers. (See, e.g., this post from John Harper of the New York Daily News and this Twitter exchange between MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.) No doubt an argument for the pursuit of Lynn could also be constructed for quite a few other teams, which is the sort of reasoning that supports at least some reason to believe that he and other mid-level free agents can still find significant contracts.
  • Veteran knuckler R.A. Dickey has not completely ruled out a return to the hill in 2018, Rosenthal also notes. All indications to date have been that Dickey would likely retire. But it seems there’s still at least an outside possibility he’ll pitch at 43 years of age. The Braves declined a club option over Dickey despite the fact that he turned in a productive 2017 season, throwing 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball.
  • David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down the current Braves thinking at third base. Many have wondered why Atlanta did not beat the offer made by the division-rival Mets for third baseman Todd Frazier, but O’Brien notes that the team would likely have had to dangle quite a bit more money to lure Frazier from his home town to play for an organization with a less experienced roster. Of even greater interest, O’Brien says the Braves front office likely doesn’t have much free cash to work with, making a pursuit of Mike Moustakas unlikely as well. The team’s contract swap with the Dodgers moved payroll forward to the 2018 balance sheet, so the odds are at this point that the club will simply allow its array of young infielders to sink or swim in the majors.

David Phelps Hires Jet Sports Management

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Mariners righty David Phelps has hired Jet Sports Management to represent him, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

Phelps was one of several MLB players that was left searching for a new agency after parting ways with Jason Wood and Career Sports Entertainment. Wood was fired by CSE and suspended by the MLBPA following allegations of misconduct against his own clients.

The 31-year-old Phelps has already avoided arbitration, agreeing to a $5.55MM deal with the M’s. But he’ll soon be in need of further negotiating assistance, as he’s slated to reach the open market at season’s end.

Phelps’s future earnings outlook is rather unclear at present. Notably, Phelps made only ten appearances in Seattle following a mid-season swap. His 2017 season ended with elbow surgery, perhaps removing any possibility that Phelps might return to the rotation, though the hope is that Phelps will be ready for a full 2018 campaign.

So long as Phelps can return to health, there’s good reason to think he’ll be one of the most sought-after set-up men on the market next winter. Since the start of the 2016 season, after all, he has thrown 142 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball with 11.1 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Phelps has a background as a starter, making him a potential multi-inning weapon.

As always, you can keep tabs on the latest agency movement with MLBTR’s Agency Database.

Mets Could Pursue Rotation Addition

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After being quiet for much of the offseason, the Mets have been more active in recent weeks, bring Jay Bruce back to Queens on a three-year deal and reportedly agreeing to a two-year pact with Todd Frazier. And now that they’ve satisfied their needs in the infield and outfield for the most part, the team could turn its focus to the starting pitching. Both MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and the New York Daily News’ John Harper reported Tuesday that the Mets could look to the open market for some support in the rotation.

DiComo suggests that the Mets are keeping an eye out for rotation help but don’t consider it as much of a priority as an infielder was, whereas Harper characterizes the need a bit more aggressively, writing that a source told him that the Mets are “serious” about looking at rotation possibilities. Meanwhile, the Record’s Matt Ehalt suggests that if the team adds a rotation arm, it’ll likely be an affordable source of innings rather than a top starter with draft compensation attached (Twitter links). Ehalt also notes that a lefty reliever is another area of focus for the Mets.

Starting pitching was a strength during the Mets’ 2015 World Series run, as the team rode strong performances from Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey plus veterans Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon to an NL pennant that season. Steven Matz made his big league debut that season as well and impressed in six starts.

However, the Mets’ rotation was in shambles for much of the 2017 season, with Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz, Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo among the rotation pieces that missed significant time due to injury. Only deGrom held up and made a full season’s worth of starts, logging 201 innings over the course of 31 trips to the hill.

All of the team’s rotation options that were limited in 2017 are expected to be healthy for Spring Training, but the general lack of stability surrounding them is an unequivocal cause for concern. Harvey has undergone both Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet surgery in recent years. Matz’s career, both in the minors and Majors, has been punctuated by shoulder and elbow troubles. Wheeler was torched for an ERA north of 5.00 in his first season back after two years lost to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard pitched just 30 1/3 innings last year due to a torn lat muscle.

The question for the Mets, at this point, is one of how much ownership will be willing to spend to bolster the starting corps after already signing Frazier, Bruce, Anthony Swarzak and Jose Reyes this offseason. The Mets still project for a payroll that comes in south of last year’s Opening Day mark, and as was the case in 2017, they’ll recoup $15MM or so of the $20MM owed to David Wright this year by virtue of the insurance policy on his contract (assuming that Wright once again is relegated to the 60-day DL for much, if not all of the season).

Harper, within his column, opines that Lance Lynn would be an ideal fit for the Mets, though there’s been no serious indication to this point that the Mets would play for any of the top four starters on the market, particularly those wiho rejected a qualifying offer. In addition to Ehalt’s report, GM Sandy Alderson recently expressed reluctance to pursue Mike Moustakas in part due to draft compensation, and the team ultimately elected to bring Frazier into the fold instead.

While Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish aren’t in the fold (Darvish due to general price tag, the others due to price and draft compensation), the market for starters has scarcely moved at all this winter, so Alderson & Co. have plenty of alternatives. Other available options for the club would include Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner and old friend Jason Vargas. Bounceback candidates still exist in the form of Chris Tillman and Hector Santiago, while less exciting but durable innings eaters still available include Ricky Nolasco and Wade Miley.

Boras, Halem Continue Quarrel Over Free Agent Activity

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Agent Scott Boras jabbed back at Major League Baseball’s comments to ESPN’s Crasnick this evening, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Specifically, Boras questioned how the league could reconcile the notion of commenting on any offers made to unsigned players — a reference to Manfred telling Crasnick that some players had received “nine figure” offers.

“I find it interesting that free agents have nine-figure offers since the CBA mandates that teams not share that sort of information,” said Boras. “I am also curious how a public statement communicated to all teams about offers on the table and players demanding too much money from a central league office … is any different from the infamous ’information bank’ in the 1980s.”

MLB chief legal officer Dan Halem responded to Boras’ comments (also per Heyman):

“If Mr. Boras spent as much time working on getting his players signed as he does issuing inflammatory and unsubstantiated statements to the press, perhaps the events of this off-season would be different.”

Boras, without missing a beat, replied by pointing out that Halem made no denial that the league’s comments on the nature of offers some players have received contained the type of information that should not be made public and should not be known about by league officials. He also invoked statements from former union chief Donald Fehr made more than three decades ago:

“I’d be embarrassed,” Fehr said of MLB owners back in 1987. “But they aren’t. And the reason they aren’t is that they have decided that winning a battle with the players over salaries is more important than winning on the field. Winning on the field is secondary these days. The owners apparently feel they will come out no matter what.”

To Boras’ credit, it does seem curious that the league’s statement would openly acknowledge the size of offers that some players have received. In addition to running counter to the CBA, the comments hardly paint players in a favorable light at a time in which commissioner Rob Manfred is spearheading efforts to broadly expand the game’s appeal to a younger audience. If anything, today’s statement only furthers the popular “greedy player” narrative — one which often ignores that the alternative is for the even wealthier owners to simply pocket money not spent on player contracts.

While those numbers weren’t exactly a secret after being leaked to the media by various sources, likely from both the agent and team side of the equation in various cases, it was nonetheless surprising to see the league stating those numbers in a factual manner (even if it was merely in reference to media reports; it’s not clear which was the case in this instance).

Of course, it’s also worth noting that Boras is making a reach by likening the current economic state of free agency to one in which owners were proven to have colluded, resulting in mass one-year deals throughout the league and, eventually, an “information bank” in which owners readily shared intel on the types of offers that were being made to free agents.

Boras’ usage of Fehr’s comments, though, was more likely in reference to the spirit of competition (or lack thereof) and the number of “tanking” teams that aren’t endeavoring to put forth a winning club in 2018. Viewed through that lens, there’s some merit to the reference, but teams today certainly have greater incentive to tank than the more financial motives of those late-80s clubs. Furthermore, the five-year deal for Lorenzo Cain as well as reported seven-year offers for Eric Hosmer and five-year offers for J.D. Martinez and Yu Darvish underscore the fact that it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

That point seems particularly worth highlighting; while many critics of the labor side of this dispute express difficulty in sympathizing with millionaire players that aren’t finding often outlandish contractual demands met, the larger issue isn’t so much that players like Hosmer, Martinez and Yu Darvish aren’t receiving offers in excess of $150MM. Rather, one of the main gripes — certainly the one voiced by Boras and MLBPA chief Tony Clark today — is simply that not enough teams are making any sort of effort, and their refraining from free agency entirely has eliminated the game’s general spirit of yearly competition (both on the field and on the open market). In addition to limiting the market for the top-tier talents, the absence of 10 or more teams on the free-agent market dramatically erodes the market for mid-range free agents who, in prior winters, would’ve happily taken two- and three-year deals from teams that may not be clear division-championship-level contenders. Obviously, there’s time yet for offers from some such teams to materialize.

Of course, as has been pointed out on many occasions — the players themselves bear no shortage of responsibility in the matter. The current structure of amateur talent acquisition in Major League Baseball disproportionately rewards noncompetitive clubs in both the draft and the amateur international market, thereby encouraging teams to strive for high draft picks rather than taking an against-the-odds shot at a Wild Card berth. Those measures, as well as the luxury tax that many of the game’s heaviest spenders are treating as a soft salary cap, were agreed upon by the union in the most recent wave of collective bargaining a bit more than one year ago.

Tim Lincecum To Throw For MLB Teams Next Week

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Right-hander Tim Lincecum will audition for Major League teams next Thursday (Feb. 15), Kyle Boddy of Driveline Baseball announced today (on Twitter). The two-time NL Cy Young winner has been working out with Driveline this offseason in an effort to revitalize his career.

Rockies right-hander Adam Ottavino, another Driveline client, shared a photo of Lincecum on Instagram back in December in which Lincecum looked to be in excellent physical condition. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted at the time that Lincecum’s velocity was up, and Boddy noted then that Lincecum would eventually host a showcase for MLB clubs before Opening Day.

In Lincecum’s last run through MLB, he logged a 9.16 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 5.4 BB/9 and a staggering 2.58 HR/9 through 38 1/3 innings with the Halos. His average fastball in that time was just 87.7 mph — nearly seven full miles per hour off he 94.2 mph that he averaged as a 23-year-old rookie one decade ago.

Those unsightly results notwithstanding, Lincecum should still at least pique the interest of clubs, and it stands to reason that plenty of scouts will be in attendance to see if he shows enough to merit consideration. Presumably, Lincecum is looking at a minor league contract and an invite to Major League Spring Training if a team ultimately does make an offer.

It’s been quite some time since Lincecum, who’ll turn 34 in June, has been much of a contributor at the big league level, of course. The once-premium velocity “The Freak” displayed early in his career wilted as he entered his late 20s, falling to an average of just over 90 mph in 2012-13. Lincecum underwent hip surgery late in the 2015 season and has only appeared sparingly in the Majors since that time. His most recent season as an elite starter came back in 2011 when he tossed 217 innings of 2.47 ERA ball for the Giants, but he’s posted just a 4.94 ERA in 654 Major League innings since that time.

Angels Sign Ian Krol To Minor League Deal

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The Angels announced that they’ve signed left-hander Ian Krol to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Krol, 27 in May, is a client of ISE Baseball.

The 2017 season proved to be a rough followup to a strong 2016 campaign for Krol, as he saw his ERA soar from 3.18 to 5.53. Krol’s K/9 rate fell from 9.9 in ’16 to 8.1 in ’17, while his BB/9 rate ballooned from 2.3 to 3.9. He also allowed eight homers in 49 innings after surrendering just four long balls in 51 frames a year prior.

Though he throws from the left side, Krol has actually struggled more against lefties than righties in each of the past three seasons. In that time, he’s allowed a .253/.336/.420 slash to righties and struggled to a more concerning .292/.369/.426 slash against same-handed opponents.

That said, Krol averages better than 93 mph on his fastball and more than eight strikeouts per nine innings, and he has also shown the ability to generate grounders at a roughly league-average clip over the course of 188 MLB innings thus far in his career. The resulting 4.55 ERA isn’t overly appealing, but a 4.05 xFIP and 3.77 SIERA forecast a somewhat rosier picture.

With the Halos, he’ll compete for a spot in manager Mike Scioscia’s bullpen, where Jose Alvarez currently projects as the only lefty. In fact, the only other southpaws on the Angels’ 40-man roster at all are starters Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney, meaning Krol landed in a spot that should afford him a decent opportunity to crack the big league roster in Spring Training.

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