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Padres, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and  Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.

Tigers, Tarik Skubal Avoid Arbitration

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The Tigers agreed to a one-year, $10.15MM deal with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a massive, nearly 300% raise on top of last year’s $2.65MM salary for the 28-year-old, handily topping the $8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Skubal, who’s under club control through the 2026 season, will be arb-eligible one more time next winter.

Skubal unanimously won American League Cy Young honors after a dominant breakout showing in which he paced the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), strikeout rate (30.3%), K-BB% (25.6%) and virtually every form of wins above replacement (6.3 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR, 6.5 RA9-WAR). The left-hander tossed 192 innings, punched out 228 opponents against just 35 walks and held opponents to only 15 homers. Skubal completed at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts and held opponents to two or fewer runs on 24 of his 31 trips to the bump. He was as consistently dominant an arm as the sport had to offer, registering an ERA no worse than 3.05 in any individual month of the season.

That dominant performance from Skubal played a major role in Detroit’s surprise run to the postseason — and in the team’s upset win over the Astros in the American League Wild Card series. Skubal was flat-out dominant in the first two playoff starts of his career, tossing a combined 13 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts, one walk and just seven hits allowed in gems over Houston and Cleveland. He took the mound for the decisive Game 5 in the intra-division ALDS showdown against the Guardians and cruised through most of his start until being tagged for a backbreaking grand slam off the bat of Guards outfielder Lane Thomas.

It was a sour note on which to end an otherwise storybook season for both player and team, but Skubal has nevertheless entrenched himself among the game’s elite arms. The Tigers and their fan base would surely love to extend the star southpaw, though as a 28-year-old Scott Boars-represented ace who’s just two seasons away from reaching free agency and a potential $200MM+ payday — perhaps more, depending on how the next two seasons play out — Skubal seems decidedly unlikely to sign a long-term pact.

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Skubal will get the Opening Day nod and front a staff also including Reese Olson and free-agent pickup Alex Cobb. Presumably, top prospect Jackson Jobe, who debuted late in the 2024 campaign, will have the inside track on a job as well, though at just 22 years old and with minimal experience above the Double-A level, he won’t simply be handed the spot. He’ll need to earn it in spring training.

Former No. 1 pick Casey Mize, rebound hopeful Kenta Maeda, right-hander Keider Montero and former top first-rounders Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Ty Madden will all be in the mix for rotation work as well — at least as things currently stand. It’s still plenty feasible, whether by free agency or trade, that the upstart Tigers add to the rotation in a meaningful way between now and Opening Day.

Mariners, Randy Arozarena Avoid Arbitration

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The Mariners have avoided arbitration with Randy Arozarena, as first reported by Francys Romero. The left fielder will earn $11.3MM in 2025, slightly less than his projected $11.7MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). He will be eligible for arbitration once more ahead of the 2026 campaign.

Arozarena, 30 in February, is coming off the least productive season of his MLB career. Entering the 2024 campaign, the former AL Rookie of the Year had a career .802 OPS and 127 wRC+ in just over 2000 trips to the plate. In 2024, his OPS dropped to a career-worst .720, while his wRC+ fell to a career-worst 114. Those are still above-average numbers, to be clear, but a step back from his All-Star-caliber performances of the past.

On the bright side, Arozarena hit significantly better after a deadline trade from the Rays to the Mariners, raising his wRC+ from 109 to 122. Interestingly, the biggest difference between his numbers with Tampa Bay and Seattle was his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). He actually struck out more often and hit for less power with the Mariners, but his BABIP increased from .249 to .323. That could be good news for Arozarena, who came into the year with a career .331 BABIP, far higher than his overall .275 BABIP in 2024. If more of his batted balls drop for hits in 2025, he could get back to being a far more productive hitter once again.

Even in a down year, Arozarena hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases, achieving his fourth straight 20/20 season. He also ranked among the top five qualified AL batters with an 11.3% walk rate. On top of that, he reached 600 plate appearances for the fourth year in a row. Since his debut in 2019, his only two stints on the injured list have been due to COVID-19 protocols. An outfielder who can play every day while offering a rare combination of power, speed, and plate discipline is a valuable player indeed; he’d command far more than $11.3MM on the open market. He will certainly be valuable to the Mariners, who need as much offense as they can get. Seattle’s pitching staff is among the best in the league, but the bats failed to support the arms last season. That’s precisely why the M’s brought Arozarena in at the deadline. They’ll be counting on him to continue producing at the plate in 2025.

Diamondbacks Avoid Arbitration With Zac Gallen, Josh Naylor

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The Diamondbacks avoided arbitration with right-hander Zac Gallen and first baseman Josh Naylor, according to reports from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Robert Murray of FanSided. Gallen will earn $13.5MM, while Naylor will command $10.9MM. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Gallen at $14.1MM and Naylor at $10.9MM. It’s the final year of club control for both players.

Gallen, 29, pitched 148 innings of 3.65 ERA ball last season, representing his lowest innings total and highest ERA of the past three seasons. The right-hander missed roughly a month with a hamstring strain, limiting his time on the mound and perhaps also impacting his performance.

At his best, Gallen is an All-Star and Cy Young-caliber arm. He finished in the top five of NL Cy Young balloting in both 2022 and 2023, earning his lone career All-Star nod in the latter of those two seasons. Across those two years, Gallen pitched to a 3.04 ERA in 394 innings. Since making his big league debut with the Marlins in 2019 — Miami flipped him to Arizona that summer for Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Gallen touts a 3.29 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 815 1/3 innings.

Gallen has long been the ace of Arizona’s staff, but he’ll at least nominally be bumped into the No. 2 spot of a potential powerhouse rotation in the wake of the D-backs’ shock signing of Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210MM deal. Burnes, Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt and rebound hopeful/trade candidate Jordan Montgomery give the Diamondbacks a wealth of rotation talent to lean on in the coming season.

Naylor, 27, came to Arizona last month in a trade that sent righty Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance draft pick back to the Guardians. Cleveland immediately pivoted and signed Carlos Santana to a one-year, $12MM deal that mirrored the projection for Naylor. Cleveland will end up with the pricier of the two options at first base in the end, though they also added a controllable 25-year-old swingman and a pick in the high 60s of the 2025 draft.

The 2025 season will be Arizona’s lone year of control over Naylor, who’s coming off a career-best 31 home runs. He turned in a .243/.320/.456 batting line in 2024, clocking in about 18% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His bat faded a bit in the season’s second half, but only relative to the huge first-half numbers Naylor posted (particularly in April and in June). He was an above-average hitter in five of the season’s six months, per wRC+, with the lone exception being May, when he was just 3% under par.

Put more succinctly, Naylor is a consistent slugger who’ll bolster the middle of the D-backs’ lineup in place of Christian Walker, who signed a three-year, $60MM deal in Houston as a free agent (netting the Snakes a compensatory draft pick after the first round in the process). Naylor walked at a career-best 9.2% clip in 2024 and fanned at a 16.6% pace that’s considerably lower than league average.

Both Gallen and Naylor are candidates to receive a qualifying offer from the D-backs at season’s end, positioning Arizona to net compensation in the 2026 draft for their potential departure. Gallen, in particular, is a veritable lock so long as he’s healthy. Naylor would be a very strong QO candidate as well if he replicates or approximates the .267/.330/.465 form he’s turned in over the past three seasons, as he’d reach the market at just 28 years of age.

Tyler Nevin To Sign With NPB’S Seibu Lions

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Infielder/outfielder Tyler Nevin is heading overseas to sign with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, per multiple reports out of Japan. Salary figures have not been publicly reported.

Players that head to foreign leagues often have strong numbers in the minors but less so in the majors, a category that Nevin certainly falls into. He has received 591 plate appearances at the major league level over the past four years, suiting up for the Orioles, Tigers and Athletics. He produced a line of .204/.299/.315 in those, which translates to an 81 wRC+, indicating he was 19% below league average.

Over the past three years, he stepped to the plate 639 times at the Triple-A level. His 10.2% walk rate and 17.2% strikeout rate in that time were both solid numbers and he also hit 26 home runs, helping him produce a combined .313/.391/.536 line and 135 wRC+.

Those minor league numbers got Nevin some big league chances but he couldn’t take advantage of them and exhausted his final option year in 2023, which left him struggling to hold a roster spot in 2024.

This year, Nevin likely would have been ticketed for more of the same if he had stayed in North American ball, probably settling for a minor league deal and maybe the occasional major league opportunity. Instead, by heading to Japan, he will likely earn himself a bit more of a financial guarantee and perhaps a decent chance at lengthy playing time at a high level.

Nevin is capable of playing all four corner spots and could slot into any of those for the Lions. If he has a nice season, perhaps he could parlay that into a return to North America down the line, or a bump to a higher salary level while staying in Asia.

Padres, Luis Arraez Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).

The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.

If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.

About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts,  Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.

Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.

To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.

Dodgers Trade Diego Cartaya To Twins

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The Twins have acquired former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league right-hander Jose Vasquez, per announcements from both clubs. Cartaya was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Minnesota had an open 40-man roster spot, and their roster is now full.

As recently as two years ago, Cartaya was a consensus top-20 prospect in the entire sport. He’s still just 23 years old, but the Venezuelan-born backstop’s offensive development has stalled out in the upper minors. Back in 2022, Cartaya slashed a combined .254/.389/.503 with 22 homers and a 14.3% walk rate across two Class-A levels. He’s followed that with lackluster performances in both Double-A (.204/.303/.379 in two seasons) and Triple-A (.208/.293/.350 in 208 plate appearances last year).

Though his bat hasn’t progressed, scouting reports in recent seasons have praised improved glovework from the 6’3″, 219-pound Cartaya. Both Baseball America and MLB.com noted in their 2024 midseason reports on Cartaya that he made notable gains with his framing, receiving and blocking. He’d already been touted for plus arm strength, though shaky accuracy has led to a roughly average 20% caught-stealing rate in his five minor league seasons.

If nothing else, the tools are there for Cartaya to be a solid defender behind the plate and a patient, OBP-focused hitter in the batter’s box. He did turn in a solid .247/.370/.377 slash against lefties last year, though that came in just 92 plate appearances and he struggled immensely versus southpaws in a similar sample a year prior. Cartaya still has one minor league option year remaining, so the Twins can send him to Triple-A to begin the season without needing to pass him through waivers.

The Twins already have an above-average starter in Ryan Jeffers and a pricey, glove-first backup in Christian Vazquez. Catcher Jair Camargo and catcher/first baseman Mickey Gasper (acquired from the Red Sox last month) are both on the 40-man roster as well. Minnesota has been hopeful of trading Vazquez and a portion of his $10MM salary as they seek to scale back payroll. There could well be a market if they’re willing to eat around half that sum, and the addition of Cartaya creates some further depth in the event that they do indeed move Vazquez (or, more surprisingly, listen to offers on Jeffers).

In return for Cartaya, the Dodgers will pick up a project right-hander. Vasquez, listed at 6’4″ and a 200 pounds, signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as part of their 2022 international class. He’s spent the past two years — his age-18 and age-19 seasons — pitching for Minnesota’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League. The bottom-line results aren’t much to look at, as Vasquez has been tagged for a 8.05 ERA in 57 innings. Part of that was a sky-high ERA north of 11.00 in 2023, however. He pitched to a more palatable 4.99 mark in 30 2/3 frames this past season.

Command was a major issue for Vasquez in ’23, evidenced by a ghastly 21.9% walk rate. He made major strides in 2024, however, cutting that mark in half (10.7%) while nearly doubling his strikeout rate from 17.8% to 32.1%. He was a bit older than the average DSL player last year and figures to head to one of the Dodgers’ full-season affiliates in 2025. There’s some obvious bat-missing potential for the lanky right-hander, but he’ll need to make further gains with his command and find a way to get left-handed opponents out. Vasquez held righties to an awful .203/.309/.290 output in 2024 but was scorched for a .314/.407/.392 line against southpaws.

Oswaldo Cabrera Drawing Trade Interest

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As the Yankees’ roster currently stands, Oswaldo Cabrera might be the most likely option to be the team’s regular third baseman in 2025. He has appeared in 92 career games at the hot corner, more than anywhere else on the diamond, and has put up excellent defensive metrics in that small sample of playing time. In 706 2/3 innings, he has 9 Defensive Runs Saves, 4 Outs Above Average, and a +3 Fielding Run Value. However, Cabrera has struggled to make the same kind of impact at the plate throughout his brief big league tenure. In 827 plate appearances from 2022-24, he has a .643 OPS and an 80 wRC+. Thus, FanGraphs estimates he has only been worth 1.3 Wins Above Replacement in 268 career games.

With all that in mind, it’s no surprise the Yankees are pursuing infield upgrades. For instance, they have recently been linked to players like Jorge Polanco, Brendan Rodgers, and Luis Arraez. If New York were to add any of those players – or a different second or third baseman – Cabrera would be the odd man out in the starting lineup. That would relegate him to a bench role once again in his age-26 season. So, it makes sense that multiple teams have reportedly spoken with the Yankees about Cabrera’s availability in a trade this winter (per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic). A rebuilding club or a contender with less infield depth might have more playing time to offer Cabrera in 2025 and therefore might value him more highly than the Yankees. What’s more, the market for lower-tier infielders is thin right now. Plenty of teams might prefer to take a chance on Cabrera’s upside than sign a known (and aging) entity like Enrique Hernández or Whit Merrifield. Cabrera is still young, still has room for growth, and won’t be arbitration-eligible until 2026.

That being said, Kuty also mentions that the Yankees “don’t seem likely” to trade Cabrera. After all, he could be their most valuable utility player this year. He’s a safer bet than the declining DJ LeMahieu and more of a proven major leaguer than former top prospect Oswald Peraza or current prospect Jorbit Vivas. What’s more, Cabrera can also play the outfield corners. He only played a handful of games in the outfield last season, but he has close to 900 innings of left and right field experience under his belt. That’s the kind of versatile bench player the Yankees could use even if/when they add another starting infielder. Indeed, this team should certainly understand the importance of position player depth. Thanks to his flexibility and good health, Cabrera has taken the field in 224 games over the last two seasons. Only two current Yankees have played more games for the team in that time: Anthony Volpe and Aaron Judge.

Twins Plan To Keep Griffin Jax In Bullpen

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In November, Twins bench coach Jayce Tingler left the door open for a rotation move for Griffin Jax. With Spring Training approaching, the team no longer seems to be considering that move.

“Our plan is to keep Griff in the bullpen for 2025,” general manager Jeremy Zoll said on the team’s Inside Twins show. “Obviously he was tremendously valuable in 2024. We feel like he’s one of the best relievers in the game and feel really good about that role and plan for the upcoming year and know Griff is excited about that as well.” Zoll left open the possibility of Jax getting a rotation opportunity in future seasons, but that doesn’t seem to be on the table for this year.

Jax has been an excellent reliever for the past three seasons. He posted an ERA in the low 3.00s with plus strikeout and walk rates between 2022-23. The righty took a major step forward last year, working to a 2.03 earned run average over 71 innings. Jax’s 34.4% strikeout percentage ranked 10th among relievers with 50+ innings. His 18.4% swinging strike rate was even more impressive. Among that same group, only Josh Hader, Dylan Lee and Mason Miller missed more bats on a per-pitch basis.

Players like Michael King, Seth Lugo, Reynaldo López and Garrett Crochet have made successful bullpen to rotation moves in recent years. There’s significant upside in such a move if a pitcher can maintain similar rate dominance over a heavier workload. At the same time, taking a player out of a role in which he has been dominant comes with some element of risk. There’s the potential for injury or simply waning effectiveness as a pitcher navigates an opposing lineup two or three times in a game.

Jax, who is entering his age-30 season, is in his first of three arbitration years. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that he and the team settled on a $2.365MM deal to avoid a hearing. Pitching in a setup role in front of Jhoan Duran comes with less earning power via arbitration than he’d have if he were a starter or had a crack at the ninth inning.

Duran and Jax form a potentially elite back-end duo for skipper Rocco Baldelli. Brock Stewart, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá and Cole Sands could also pitch their way into leverage innings. Minnesota is light on left-handers and could look for a low-cost southpaw this offseason. Kody Funderburk and depth starter Brent Headrick are the only left-handed pitchers on the 40-man roster.

Minnesota has a decent stockpile of rotation depth. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober project as the top three starters. Chris Paddack is lined up as the #4 arm, while Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews could compete for the final rotation spot. López and Paddack have each come up in trade rumors because the Minnesota front office is seemingly working without any kind of payroll flexibility. They’d require a massive haul to move López, their staff ace. Trading Paddack to offload his $7.5MM salary and create space for an offensive acquisition may be more likely.

On the position player side, Zoll confirmed that the Twins will give Royce Lewis reps at both second and third base in Spring Training. The former first overall pick has only started one major league game at the keystone. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported early in the offseason that the Twins were contemplating a full-time move to second base for the upcoming season. Zoll didn’t firmly commit to an infield alignment and spoke generally about the value of the defensive flexibility that Lewis, Willi Castro and Brooks Lee bring to the table.

Red Sox Have Shown Interest In Phil Maton

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The Red Sox have already signed two free agent relievers to major league deals this offseason: veteran closer Aroldis Chapman and journeyman Justin Wilson. What’s more, Liam Hendriks, another star closer, should be back in the ’pen after missing the entire 2024 season due to injury. Still, Boston’s chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently identified the bullpen as an area he’s looking to further improve. It makes sense; Red Sox relievers ranked 24th in ERA and 20th in SIERA last season, while finishing with the second-most blown saves in the AL – and that was before losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to free agency.

Thus, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the Red Sox have “checked in on a long, long list” of names in pursuit of bullpen upgrades. That includes Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, Carlos Estévez, Tommy Kahnle, and Andrew Kittredge. On Wednesday, Cotillo added Phil Maton to that cohort.

Maton, 32 in March, is coming off an up-and-down season split between the Rays and Mets. The right-hander struggled in Tampa Bay after signing a one-year, $6.5MM contract (with a club option for 2025) last offseason. Over 40 games and 35 1/3 innings with the Rays, he pitched to a 4.58 ERA and 4.52 SIERA. By the end of his brief tenure in Tampa Bay, his strikeout rate was sitting at a career-low and his walk rate at a career-high. Despite the highest groundball rate of his career, he was struggling to prevent runs.

Yet, after a midseason trade to the Mets that was little more than a salary dump on the Rays’ part, Maton bounced back. Across 31 appearances for New York, he tossed 28 2/3 innings with a 2.51 ERA and 2.97 SIERA. His strikeout rate rose to 26.5% – the same above-average level it was at in 2022 and ’23. Meanwhile, his 5.3% walk rate was lower than ever. Although his groundball rate dropped substantially, he gave up just one home run to the 113 batters he faced, thanks in large part to a much lower average exit velocity and barrel rate.

Despite Maton’s successful denouement in Queens, the Mets chose to not exercise their $7.75MM option for his services in 2025. Nonetheless, there is no reason to think he’ll have trouble finding a major league deal elsewhere, although it will probably come with a lower salary. He has already been linked to the Blue Jays this winter, and the Red Sox are the second team known to have interest.

By the end of the 2024 season, Maton’s overall numbers were perfectly respectable: a 3.66 ERA and 3.82 SIERA in 64 IP. It marked his third consecutive campaign with an ERA under four and his fourth surpassing 60 innings of work. Since his first full season in 2020, Maton has a 3.87 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, and a 26.7% strikeout rate in 294 games. In that time, he ranks among the top 10 MLB relievers in appearances and innings pitched. He may not be a dominant, high-leverage arm, but there is certainly value in a reliever who stays on the field and consistently provides average to slightly above-average performance. To that point, the Red Sox already have several high-ceiling back-end hurlers in Chapman, Hendriks, and Justin Slaten. What they could use, however, is a reliable, middle-inning arm to raise the bullpen’s floor. Maton could certainly be that guy.

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