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Cubs Granted Fourth Option Year On Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs have been granted a fourth option year for right-hander Caleb Kilian, per a report from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.

Typically, players have three option seasons with one used each season during which the player spends at least 20 days on optional assignment in the minor leagues. A player is considered to be on optional assignment when on a club’s 40-man roster but sent to the minor leagues while not on a rehab assignment. Kilian, 28 in June, was first placed on Chicago’s 40-man roster back in 2022 and has been optioned to the minor leagues in each of the 2022-24 campaigns with at least 20 days in the minors each season. Under normal circumstances, that would leave him out of options headed into the 2025 campaign, meaning the Cubs would have to expose Kilian to waivers before attempting to return him to the minor leagues.

Occasionally, however, teams are granted a fourth option year on certain players, typically due to the player missing significant time with injury. MLB.com explains that players with less than five full professional seasons (defined as at least 90 days on a major or minor league active roster) are eligible for a fourth option year. That applies to Kilian, who missed the majority of the 2024 season due to a teres major strain suffered during Spring Training and did not make his season debut until July 2. Kilian also did not pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season and pitched for just one month in 2019 after being drafted by the Giants in June of that year. That leaves Kilian with just three full professional seasons under his belt: 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The news affords the Cubs additional flexibility as they sort through their many bullpen options for the 2025 season. Presently, the club has Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Julian Merryweather, Caleb Thielbar, Eli Morgan, Luke Little, Nate Pearson, Keegan Thompson, Rob Zastryzny, Jack Neely, Daniel Palencia, Ethan Roberts, and Gavin Hollowell all on the 40-man roster and in the mix for a role in the Opening Day bullpen before even considering starting pitchers like Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, Cody Poteet and now Kilian that currently project as part of the Triple-A rotation. A handful of non-roster veterans like Phil Bickford and Brooks Kriske could also be in the mix for a job.

Of that massive group of potential bullpen arms, Thielbar, Miller, Merryweather, Zastryzny, Thompson, and Festa all do not have options remaining. With just eight spots in the Opening Day bullpen, Kilian also being out of options would’ve left just one open space to fill before the club would’ve had to start exposing players from the aforementioned to waivers in order to mix in the club’s many optionable relief arms, including key players like Hodge, Pearson, and Morgan. Injuries and Spring Training roster cuts will surely thin that group out in the months leading up to Opening Day, but the news regarding Kilian’s fourth option year offers the Cubs a bit more breathing room as they look to piece together their pitching corps for 2025.

An inability to option Kilian also would have likely ended whatever hopes the right-hander may have of continuing to be a potential option for the starting rotation; while Kilian has a deep pitch mix and the stamina to start, his control has been sorely lacking. The right-hander has accrued 27 1/3 innings of work in the majors to this point in his career and in that time has struggled to a 9.22 ERA and 5.32 FIP while walking (14.6%) nearly as many batters as he’s struck out (15.3%). With that said, he was effective at the Triple-A level when healthy enough to take the mound last year, with a 3.22 ERA and a 20.3% strikeout rate against a 7.5% walk rate.

Whether he ultimately finds a home in the rotation or the bullpen, a fourth option year has left the door open to Kilian establishing himself more firmly as a viable big league option with additional time to develop in the minors, and allows the Cubs one final year to evaluate the righty before he either has to be kept on the active roster permanently or exposed to waivers during the 2026 campaign.

Padres To Add Nick Punto, Robby Hammock To Coaching Staff

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The Padres are going to add a couple of former big leaguers to their coaching staff. Per Dennis Lin of The Athletic, Nick Punto and Robby Hammock are going to be coming aboard, though their specific roles aren’t yet clear. Lin adds that Ryan Barba, the club’s major league field coordinator in 2024, recently left to join the Cardinals in some unspecified role.

Punto, 47, was in the big leagues from 2001 to 2014 as a utility player. He got into 1,163 games for the Phillies, Twins, Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers and Athletics. He hit .245/.323/.323 while playing every position on the diamond outside of the battery. He won a World Series ring with the Cards in 2011.

Hammock, also 47, was mostly a catcher but he also dabbled in the four corner spots. He played on-and-off for the Diamondbacks from 2003 to 2011, getting into 182 games. He hit .254/.312/.407 over his 527 plate appearances.

After his playing career ended, he transitioned into coaching with the D’Backs, working for various minor league clubs from 2012 to 2021. He then came to the Padres’ organization, serving as their Triple-A hitting coach in 2022. He then pivoted to the Pirates’ organization, managing the High-A Greensboro club in 2023 and then Double-A Altoona last year.

It’s unclear exactly what roles the two will have, but they will each bring an experienced voice to manager Mike Shildt’s staff. Shildt took over as San Diego’s skipper last year and the club went 93-69 in his first season.

Latest On Luis Arraez’s Trade Market

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The Padres and infielder Luis Arráez avoided arbitration earlier today by agreeing to a $14MM salary for the 2025 season, his final before he reaches free agency next offseason. Even after agreeing to a contract, however, there’s no guarantee that Arraez will be San Diego come Opening Day. The club is reportedly angling to lower its payroll to something closer to 2024’s $169MM figure. With outstanding needs in the outfield and rotation that have yet to be addressed, trading a pricey arbitration-level player like Arraez or Dylan Cease seems like it may be the best avenue for the club to simultaneously lower its payroll and add talent to remain competitive in the NL West this season.

That’s led the Padres to at least consider parting ways with Arraez this winter, and there have been some conflicting reports about potential interest from the Yankees regarding Arraez’s services. The club is in need of infield help after losing Gleyber Torres in free agency, and Arraez’s history as a second baseman makes him something of a plausible option. With that being said however, Andy Martino of SNY is the latest voice to cast doubt on the fit between Arraez and the Yankees. While Martino acknowledges that the club had some discussions back in November that involved Arraez, he adds that similarly brief conversations were held regarding fellow Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth along with a number of other players, and that the Yankees are not expected to pursue Arraez at this point in the winter.

That may not completely shut the door on Arraez winding up in the Big Apple, however. Martino suggests that while the Mets have not engaged with the Padres in “substantive” talks regarding Arraez to this point, they’re in the market for a veteran infielder and he could come into play for the club in the event that slugging first baseman Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. In that case, Arraez would provide the Mets with a short-term solution at first along with the ability to back up second and third base in a pinch. That would leave the door open for New York to reevaluate its needs next winter in a free agent class that figures to be headlined by star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. barring an extension with the Blue Jays. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan O’Hearn, and Josh Naylor are among the other noteworthy names that figure to be available in next year’s first base class.

When it comes to their hole at first base, the club seems to be clearly focused on bringing Alonso back into the fold despite a number of recent reports have suggested that there remains a gap between the two sides in terms of years. It’s difficult to imagine the Mets going in another direction until Alonso’s market develops further, but it’s worth noting that the same surely could have been said about third baseman Alex Bregman and the Astros in the weeks prior to the club adding Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to box him out of the club’s infield mix.

Should the Mets wind up searching for other options themselves, Arraez figures to be one of a number of backup options at their disposal in the event that Alonso ultimately signs elsewhere. There’s been some rumors that the club could consider Bregman as a backup to Alonso, which would kick incumbent third baseman Mark Vientos over to first. More direct first base options available in free agency or on the trade market include Justin Turner, LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even Red Sox youngster Triston Casas, though none of those players have been directly connected to the Mets at this point.

Nolan Arenado Reportedly Less Likely To Be Traded

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The Nolan Arenado saga has been perhaps the main storyline of the Cardinals’ offseason. As the club looks to scale back payroll and open up playing time for younger players (Nolan Gorman, in particular), Arenado has become one of the most prominent trade candidates in the sport. His full no-trade clause, downturn at the plate since 2023 and remaining three years and $74MM ($10MM of which is being covered by the Rockies) all combine to complicate the matter, however; Arenado has already reportedly invoked that no-trade clause to nix a deal to the Astros, who pivoted in mere days and signed first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal instead (a contract nearly mirroring the $64MM they’d have owed to Arenado).

Agent Joel Wolfe said at last month’s Winter Meetings that Arenado was only open to trades to clubs where he felt he could win both in the short-term and for the remainder of his contract. It’s a bit odd that the Astros, who reached the playoffs in 2024 and reached the ALCS each season from 2017-23, didn’t fit that criteria, but there are surely multiple factors behind his decision.

Since that time, the Red Sox have been painted as the last and best hope for the Cardinals to orchestrate an Arenado trade. Even there, the situation is muddy. Acquiring Arenado would very likely mean moving Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, where Triston Casas currently resides. Casas could see more time at DH, though the Sox are committed to Masataka Yoshida, who has three years and $54MM remaining, at that position. There’s the possibility of trading Casas, but Boston would surely need major league talent in return. It’s debatable whether they’d be better off with Arenado at third, Devers at first and whatever young talent they could get in return for Casas. Simultaneously, the Sox are considering a run at Alex Bregman (who’d also require shifting Devers to first and finding a trade for Casas or a taker for Yoshida). It’s all quite messy.

For those reasons and more, Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that he outlook on a possible Arenado deal is becoming increasingly bleak. Woo writes that efforts to move Arenado are at a “standstill” — in part because St. Louis isn’t interested in eating a notable chunk of the contract when part of their reason for wanting to move the third baseman is a desire to scale back spending. If no deal for Arenado materializes, per Woo, the Cards could look into other ways to trim payroll (and acquire young talent).

It’s quite arguable that the Cardinals should already be doing as much. The team isn’t making any efforts to improve the club for the upcoming season, after all, and the Cards are fresh off an 83-79 season. They’ve bid farewell to Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn, Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge in free agency. Absent any effort to truly push closer to contention, it’s a stretch to think the Cardinals will make massive strides within the NL Central — let alone emerge as a bona fide threat in the postseason even if they limp to a playoff berth through a good showing within a weak division.

St. Louis has plenty of appealing players who’ll be free agents after the season and could be marketed to other clubs. Starter Erick Fedde ($7.5MM), closer Ryan Helsley ($8.2MM) and to a lesser extent veteran starter Steven Matz ($12MM) would all pique the interest of other clubs. That’s also true of setup man JoJo Romero, who’s controlled only through 2026. If the Cards aren’t taking a wholehearted aim at contending in 2025 anyhow, there’s good reason to explore trades of those players in the here and now, rather than risk a downturn in value following injuries or a poor first half of the season.

Moving Fedde or Matz would thin out the current rotation depth for a club that needs innings, though there’s of course the possibility to backfill via free agency. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this week that the club still has some interest in Mizzou product Kyle Gibson, who enjoyed pitching close to home last year and played a key mentor role for many of the team’s young players. Trading Fedde for prospects, for instance, and signing Gibson to replenish those innings could bolster the long-term outlook. It might not significantly reduce payroll on its own — it may slightly increase it, in fact — but it’d benefit the long-term health of the organization. Such a trade could also be coupled with deals of Matz and/or Helsley as well. Goold notes that both Fedde and Matz have drawn interest throughout the winter, which is only logical given the soaring price of free-agent pitching.

While The Athletic and Post-Dispatch continue to caution that chances of a trade don’t look great right now — Ken Rosenthal suggested as much today on Fair Territory, as well — MLB.com and MLB Network frame things differently. John Denton wrote this week that the Red Sox could soon pull out of the Bregman bidding, which would greatly improve the chances of an Arenado trade with St. Louis. The third baseman has already formally told the club he’d green-light a deal to Boston, per Denton, and he’s talked with friend and former teammate Trevor Story about the possibility of reuniting at Fenway Park.

Further, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi suggested on air this morning that as options have begun to dwindle, Arenado has begun to take a more open-minded approach. Some clubs that showed interest last month but didn’t pursue trades because of Arenado’s narrow list of criteria could come back into play, per Morosi. He suggests the Mariners and Tigers as two such clubs, though it’s virtually impossible to see how the Mariners could be considered a viable suitor given their well-documented financial constraints this winter.

The Tigers are a more plausible fit on paper, but they’ve spent quite conservatively under president of baseball ops Scott Harris; perhaps they’d have interest, but it’s hard to see them paying full freight on that contract, particularly when they have some third base options in house already (including top prospect Jace Jung).

Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat tweeted this morning that the Royals were among the teams that reached out to the Cardinals last month but didn’t pursue a trade because of a belief that Arenado wouldn’t green-light the deal. The Royals are still seeking another bat, and incumbent Maikel Garcia is a glove-first player with a lighter bat than even the recently diminished version of Arenado. Kansas City also traded its top third base prospect, Cayden Wallace, to the Nationals in last summer’s Hunter Harvey swap.

However, Arenado’s contract would figure to be quite problematic for the Royals. Beyond the $64MM total he’s owed is the fact that said commitment is front-loaded; Arenado is owed $32MM this coming season ($5MM being covered by Colorado). The Royals’ payroll is already close to $10MM higher than it was a year ago, per RosterResource. Rosenthal noted in the aforementioned Fair Territory segment (17:50 mark) that he was surprised Kansas City even eked out another $7MM to re-sign Michael Lorenzen. Piling an additional $27MM onto the payroll and pushing their Opening Day would push payroll close to or slightly north of $150MM. That’d top the current franchise record of $143MM, set back in 2017. Arenado might represent a clearer upgrade to the Royals or Mariners than to some other speculative fits, but neither seems to have the financial wherewithal to bring him aboard — even if Arenado were willing to approve the deal.

If that feels like a lot of words effectively downplaying the possibility of a trade and maintaining the status quo — well, it is. The simple reality is that Arenado was never going to be an easy player to move, and his decision to quash a trade to Houston — and the Astros’ immediate pivot — probably eliminated the best chance of the Cardinals moving him at all. Absent a new approach from the Yankees — New York offered Marcus Stroman for Arenado earlier this winter, which didn’t interest St. Louis — there’s no long-term contender with a clear need at third base and ample payroll space to take on a 34-year-old player whose bat appears to be on the decline.

Chances of a trade shouldn’t be considered dead and buried, of course. Spring injuries could always create a need for a big-payroll contender whose options at that juncture are limited. Such circumstances could prove a meaningful catalyst. Trades elsewhere on the market could alter another team’s considerations at the hot corner and spark some interest in Arenado. For now, however, it seems increasingly likely that Arenado may not have the market to facilitate a trade. If the Cardinals begrudgingly come to feel the same, it could create some fascinating ripple effects with regard to the rest of their roster.

Cardinals Claim Bailey Horn

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The Cardinals announced that they have claimed left-handed reliever Bailey Horn off waivers from the Tigers. Detroit designated him for assignment last week. The Cardinals already have multiple open 40-man spots, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary.

The 26-year-old Horn has now ridden the waiver carousel from Boston, to Detroit to St. Lous in just over a month’s time. He made his big league debut with the Red Sox in 2024, pitching 18 innings and surrendering 13 runs on the strength of 22 hits and 10 walks with 13 strikeouts. The resulting 6.50 ERA isn’t much to look at, but Horn is a 2020 fifth-rounder (White Sox) who’s had some success in the upper minors and been involved in one trade of some note — when the Sox sent him crosstown to the Cubs in a 2021 deal for Ryan Tepera.

Last year with the Red Sox, who acquired him in April following another DFA, he tossed 29 1/3 innings in Triple-A and logged a minuscule 2.15 ERA with an impressive 29.2% strikeout rate. Horn’s 11.7% walk rate was too high, but those rate stats are generally representative of how he’s performed throughout his minor league career. He’s punched out 29% of his opponents in four minor league seasons but also issued a walk to nearly 13% of the batters he’s faced.

Horn still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, making him a flexible bullpen piece for the Cardinals in the short- or perhaps long-term. He sits just shy of 95 mph on his heater and misses bats at a high enough level to provide some intrigue for a Cards organization that’s light on bullpen certainty (particularly if closer Ryan Helsley is traded before Opening Day or prior to the summer trade deadline).

One thing St. Louis does have a fair bit of, however, is left-handed relief depth. Horn will join a mix including JoJo Romero, John King, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. They’re not all proven in the majors, but it’s a solid collection of southpaws all the same. Romero is only controlled through 2026, so if things go south for the Cards in the season’s first half, he could end up a summer trade chip himself, potentially opening the door even further for an opportunity for the newly acquired Horn.

Cubs Acquire Matt Festa

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The Cubs have acquired right-hander Matt Festa from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, both teams announced. Festa was designated for assignment by the Rangers earlier this week to accommodate the signing of Chris Martin. To make room for Festa on the 40-man roster, the Cubs have designated utility man Miles Mastrobuoni for assignment.

Festa, 31, was a seventh-round pick by the Mariners back in 2016. The righty looked good during his first cup of coffee at the big league level back in 2018, but a subsequent cameo with the Mariners in 2019 saw him struggle badly with a 5.64 ERA in 20 appearances. That would be his last taste of big league action for a couple of years, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and next pitched for the Mariners during the 2022 season. He was more or less an average middle reliever for Seattle over the next two seasons, with a 4.14 ERA (91 ERA+) and 4.48 FIP in 63 innings of work before he was designated for assignment and eventually released late in the 2023 season.

That led into a one-year period where Festa bounced around a number of different teams in the league. After being picked up on a minor league deal with the Padres last January, Festa did not crack the club’s big league roster out of Spring Training and pitched to a solid but unspectacular 4.50 ERA in 16 innings before San Diego granted him his release in mid-May. He signed with the Mets on a minor league deal just a few days later and was selected to the club’s big league roster in the late June, but found himself torched for five runs (four earned) in his lone inning of work with the club before he was once again cut loose. That led him to sign his third minor league deal of the year, this time with the Rangers, in early July.

After being added to the Rangers roster for the stretch run back in August, Festa pitched solidly enough with a 4.37 ERA (92 ERA+) and a strong 3.34 FIP. He posted some of the best strikeout and walk numbers he’s ever enjoyed at the big league level during his time in Texas as he punched out 25% of opponents while allowing free passes at a 7.6% clip. His peripheral numbers were something of a mixed bag during that time; while his .254 BABIP and 5.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate both erred on the side of good fortune, Festa’s 54.1% strand rate was extremely low and suggested some bad luck when it came to sequencing.

It was an interesting enough profile for the Rangers to keep him on the 40-man roster early in the winter, but he became expendable once the club added a number of more reliable relief arms to their bullpen throughout the offseason. Now, he’ll head to Chicago with a chance to compete for a role in the Cubs’ bullpen this Spring. Currently, Chicago’s relief corps includes fellow offseason trade addition Eli Morgan, free agent signing Caleb Thielbar, and a handful of internal options such as Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather, Luke Little, Tyson Miller, and Nate Pearson. It’s a group with plenty of flexibility but few set-in-stone options, and it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs continue to search for bullpen upgrades going forward this winter.

To bring Festa into the fold, the Cubs are risking parting ways with Mastrobuoni. The utility man has played adequate defense all over the diamond for Chicago in each of the past two seasons but has failed to establish himself offensively ever since being acquired from the Rays prior to the 2023 season. In 255 trips to the plate with the Cubs in 110 games over the past two years, Mastrobuoni has hit just .221/.282/.268. While his 15 stolen bases in 16 attempts and his ability to play the outfield corners, shortstop, second and third base have helped him provide value outside the batters’ box, that anemic slash line makes it easy to see why the club would decide to move on.

Even without Mastrobuoni in the fold, the Cubs figure to have plenty internal depth available in terms of utility players who can hit from the left side, with recent acquisition Vidal Bruján and Rule 5 Draft selection Gage Workman both currently in the mix for a bench job in 2025. Going forward, Chicago will have one week to either trade Mastrobuoni or place him on waivers. It’s not impossible to imagine a club bringing Mastrobuoni, who has a minor league option remaining, into the fold as optionable depth. Should he clear waivers, the Cubs will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 campaign.

Athletics Sign CD Pelham To Minor League Deal

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The Athletics have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander CD Pelham, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal for the Pro Edge Sports Management client includes an invitation to big league spring training.

Pelham is a minor league journeyman who has spent time in the Rangers, Cubs, Padres, and Angels organizations over the past 10 years. Texas drafted the southpaw 978th overall in 2015. A little more than three years later, he made his MLB debut in Arlington, suiting up for the Rangers in 10 games down the stretch of the 2018 season. Over 7 2/3 innings, he gave up six earned runs on 12 hits, striking out seven but walking four. Unfortunately, Pelham struggled badly in the minors the following year, putting up an 11.97 ERA and 7.86 FIP in 42 games between Double and Triple-A. Suffice it to say, he did not make his way back to the majors with Texas. Instead, he found himself designated for assignment after the season.

The Cubs claimed Pelham off of waivers in November 2019. Yet, due to the canceled 2020 season and an injury that cost him the 2021 campaign, he did not appear in a game with the Cubs organization until May 2022. He was solid but unspectacular that year at Double and Triple-A, posting a 4.35 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. After electing free agency, Pelham latched on with the Padres for 2023, but an injury and an inconsistent performance left him with a final line of 14 1/3 IP and a 7.53 ERA across a handful of stops in San Diego’s farm system.

Pelham opened the 2024 campaign in the Mexican League, pitching well enough for the Leones de Yucatán (1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 IP) to land a minor league deal with the Angels mid-season. Yet, despite his pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 10 games in the Angels system, he was released at the end of July.

The southpaw returned to Mexico this offseason to pitch in the Pacific Winter League. He has thrived with the Tomateros de Culiacan (2.25 ERA in 28 IP), and evidently, the A’s liked what they saw. It’s still a long shot that Pelham will make it back to the majors in 2025, but the Athletics’ lack of pitching depth gives him a chance to return to a major league mound for the first time since 2018.

Mariners Claim Tyler Jay

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The Mariners announced that they have claimed left-hander Tyler Jay off waivers from the Brewers. The latter club designated him for assignment a week ago when they acquired Grant Anderson. Seattle’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now full.

Jay, 31, was the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft but it took him almost a decade to get to the big leagues. Various injuries, including surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, slowed his rise through the minors. By the end of the 2019 season, he had topped out at Double-A, then didn’t pitch in any official capacity in 2020 or 2021. That was followed by stints in indy ball in the next two years, which led to the Mets taking a flier on him on a minor league deal.

In April of last year, he finally got up to the majors, though was on and off rosters all year. The Mets selected his contract in mid-April but outrighted him a few days later. He was back up in June, then designated for assignment a second time in July. His second DFA resulted in getting traded to the Brewers, though that club kept him mostly on optional assignment. He finished the year with 7 2/3 innings pitched between his two clubs, allowing four earned runs while walking six batters and recording six strikeouts.

That’s a tiny sample size, so the Mariners are probably more interested in the minor league numbers. Jay tossed 56 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level last year, between the two organizations, allowing 3.02 earned runs per nine. He had a 20.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate. For what it’s worth, the strikeout rate jumped after he came to the Brewers, going from 18.6% with Syracuse to 25.7% with Nashville, though his walk rate also went from 2.5% to 10.8% after the switch.

For the Mariners, they’re clearly intrigued enough to give Jay a roster spot, at least for now. He has just a few days of service time and a couple of option years remaining, so he can at least serve as a cheap depth piece with roster flexibility. As a former first-round pick and top prospect, perhaps there’s some untapped upside in there. They currently have Tayler Saucedo and Gabe Speier as the top lefties in their projected bullpen, with Austin Kitchen also on the roster. Jay will jump into that group and try to push for opportunities in the 2025 season.

Padres, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and  Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.

Tigers, Tarik Skubal Avoid Arbitration

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The Tigers agreed to a one-year, $10.15MM deal with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a massive, nearly 300% raise on top of last year’s $2.65MM salary for the 28-year-old, handily topping the $8MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Skubal, who’s under club control through the 2026 season, will be arb-eligible one more time next winter.

Skubal unanimously won American League Cy Young honors after a dominant breakout showing in which he paced the AL in wins (18), ERA (2.39), strikeout rate (30.3%), K-BB% (25.6%) and virtually every form of wins above replacement (6.3 bWAR, 5.9 fWAR, 6.5 RA9-WAR). The left-hander tossed 192 innings, punched out 228 opponents against just 35 walks and held opponents to only 15 homers. Skubal completed at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts and held opponents to two or fewer runs on 24 of his 31 trips to the bump. He was as consistently dominant an arm as the sport had to offer, registering an ERA no worse than 3.05 in any individual month of the season.

That dominant performance from Skubal played a major role in Detroit’s surprise run to the postseason — and in the team’s upset win over the Astros in the American League Wild Card series. Skubal was flat-out dominant in the first two playoff starts of his career, tossing a combined 13 shutout innings with 14 strikeouts, one walk and just seven hits allowed in gems over Houston and Cleveland. He took the mound for the decisive Game 5 in the intra-division ALDS showdown against the Guardians and cruised through most of his start until being tagged for a backbreaking grand slam off the bat of Guards outfielder Lane Thomas.

It was a sour note on which to end an otherwise storybook season for both player and team, but Skubal has nevertheless entrenched himself among the game’s elite arms. The Tigers and their fan base would surely love to extend the star southpaw, though as a 28-year-old Scott Boars-represented ace who’s just two seasons away from reaching free agency and a potential $200MM+ payday — perhaps more, depending on how the next two seasons play out — Skubal seems decidedly unlikely to sign a long-term pact.

Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Skubal will get the Opening Day nod and front a staff also including Reese Olson and free-agent pickup Alex Cobb. Presumably, top prospect Jackson Jobe, who debuted late in the 2024 campaign, will have the inside track on a job as well, though at just 22 years old and with minimal experience above the Double-A level, he won’t simply be handed the spot. He’ll need to earn it in spring training.

Former No. 1 pick Casey Mize, rebound hopeful Kenta Maeda, right-hander Keider Montero and former top first-rounders Matt Manning, Alex Faedo and Ty Madden will all be in the mix for rotation work as well — at least as things currently stand. It’s still plenty feasible, whether by free agency or trade, that the upstart Tigers add to the rotation in a meaningful way between now and Opening Day.

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