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Marlins Believed To Be Willing To Offer Five Years/$80MM To Kenley Jansen

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The Marlins are perhaps the most surprising team bidding on the offseason’s top free agent closers, though other teams believe Miami is ready to back up its desire for a bullpen upgrade with some serious money.  According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), rival teams believe the Marlins are willing to offer Kenley Jansen five years and $80MM.  Since Jansen rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, signing the closer would also cost Miami their first-round draft pick (14th overall), but the Fish are prepared to lose that pick to bring Jansen into the fold.  The Marlins themselves say they’re still discussing the matter.

Jansen was first linked to the Marlins a few weeks ago, with MLBTR’s Steve Adams noting that it was just one offseason ago that the Fish signed a big qualifying offer free agent in the form of Wei-Yin Chen (who was also, interestingly, signed to a five-year, $80MM contract).  Miami also had to surrender a draft pick to sign Chen, though it was only a second-rounder, as the team’s first-round pick was protected.  It would be a much taller order to surrender the 14th overall selection, which is why perhaps it’s somewhat curious that the Marlins seem to be primarily targeting Jansen over Aroldis Chapman or Mark Melancon, both of whom were dealt last season and thus weren’t subject to the qualifying offer.

While five years and $80MM would be the biggest contract ever signed by a closer (at least until Chapman signs), it is actually a bit less than MLBTR’s projection for Jansen, which was five years and $85MM.  Chapman was pegged at five years/$90MM and Melancon for four years/$52MM, though Melancon has reportedly already received four-year offers topping $60MM from the Nationals, Giants and an unknown third team, who could possibly be the Marlins.  If Miami is indeed the mystery team, I wonder if the Marlins would perhaps just boost their offer to Melancon (to $65MM? $70MM?) with the logic that it would still be cheaper than what they’re reportedly willing to give up both financially and draft-wise to land Jansen.

Though the Marlins have a larger need in the rotation than in the bullpen, the team’s plan is to double down on its relief strength in order to shorten games and take pressure off its pen.  The Fish have already signed Edinson Volquez and they’ve been linked to such other relatively inexpensive starting options as Doug Fister, C.J. Wilson, Travis Wood and Dillon Gee as they look to rebuild the rotation on a budget while saving its big dollars for an ace closer.

Dodgers Shopping Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy

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The Dodgers are shopping Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and others, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link).  Roster flexibility is one factor in these trade explorations, as Los Angeles currently has 39 players on its 40-man roster.  Rich Hill could fill that last open spot, as the Dodgers are reportedly close to a deal to re-sign the veteran lefty, though the team would need more room to make further acquisitions.

Dealing the likes of Kazmir or McCarthy obviously carries more import than simply clearing roster space, as a glimpse at the Dodgers roster reveals several major league and minor league names on the 40-man that could reasonably be designated for assignment.  Moving either veteran starter would be significant for the team’s 2017 rotation plans and potentially payroll, though it is quite possible L.A. would have to eat some money to facilitate a trade, especially with McCarthy.

After missing almost all of 2015 and most of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, McCarthy managed 10 games (nine of them starts) for the Dodgers, though he also spent time on the DL with a hip injury.  Since signing a four-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers in December 2014, McCarthy has pitched just 63 innings of 5.29 ERA baseball for the club, and he is still owed $10MM in each of the next two seasons.  The starter-thin market this winter could generate some interest in McCarthy’s services if other teams believe he is healthy, though that could be a tall order, given the righty’s lengthy list of injuries both in recent years and throughout his career.

Kazmir also has a pretty checkered injury history and dealt with another DL trip in 2016 due to thoracic spine inflammation.  The lefty made just one outing after August 22, as his season was essentially ended by the injury.  Kazmir threw 136 1/3 innings in his first season as a Dodger, posting a 4.56 ERA, 2.58 K/BB and 8.8 K/9 and his highest BB/9 and HR/9 totals since 2010.  It was probably a combination of these only-decent numbers and his season-ending DL stint that led Kazmir to not opt out of his contract, so he is still owed $32MM over the next two years.

With Clayton Kershaw, Kenta Maeda and Julio Urias penciled into the rotation, Kazmir and McCarthy project to fill the other two spots (with Hill either replacing one altogether or moving one to the bullpen).  Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose De Leon and Ross Stripling some of the other arms available as potential rotation depth, which is very necessary given the incredible number of pitching injuries the Dodgers faced last year.

Dan Duquette On Trumbo, Machado, Britton

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The Orioles have “made a couple offers to” free agent slugger Mark Trumbo, Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette told reporters (including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), though despite ongoing talks, an agreement has yet to be reached.  “We’ve had several conversations with Mark Trumbo, but we haven’t been able to cinch a deal with him….We’ve had a dialogue going with them for several weeks,” Duquette said.

Though there was mutual interest in a continued relationship between the two sides prior to the end of the season, there hasn’t been much news about Trumbo and Orioles until now.  Duquette said during the GM Meetings that the club was looking to prioritize defense and add a left-handed hitting outfielder, neither of which describe what Trumbo brings to the table. Duquette cited outfield defense again today, though Trumbo could also fill Baltimore’s hole at designated hitter.  As I noted in my free agent profile of Trumbo, his value could greatly improve if a team uses him in a first base/DH role rather than as a corner outfielder.

Right field is the specific need for the O’s, as Duquette said Hyun Soo Kim and Joey Rickard could handle left field in a platoon and the team hasn’t put much thought into moving Chris Davis from first base into right.  As for other internal options, Duquette also cited youngster Trey Mancini as having the hitting potential to possibly handle regular DH duty.

Trumbo has received some interest from the Rockies this winter, though Colorado would have to give up a hefty draft pick price (the 11th overall selection in next year’s draft) to sign Trumbo, who rejected the Orioles’ qualifying offer.  That same QO status is a consideration for the O’s as well as they explore re-signing Trumbo, Duquette noted, as is the changing nature of the qualifying offer system in future years under the new collective bargaining agreement.

Aside from Trumbo, Duquette also discussed such topics as the team’s needs in right field, catcher (either as a starter or platoon partner with Caleb Joseph) and the potential use of the upcoming Rule 5 draft to procure more young talent.

Duquette also denied a rumor about an extension between Manny Machado and the Orioles, saying that the two sides hadn’t had any talks.  Most teams wait until after the bulk of the offseason work is complete before entering into extension negotiations, so we might not hear about anything with Machado until Spring Training at the earliest.  The superstar third baseman is projected by MLBTR to earn $11.2MM in arbitration next season, and the O’s control Machado through the 2018 campaign.  With Machado hitting the open market at age 26, the sky is the limit for the size of a potential extension — Baltimore would likely require something north of a $250MM guarantee.

In a radio appearance with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link), the executive VP also commented on the attention being drawn by closer Zach Britton.  “There’s a lot of interest in Zach Britton. Personally, I like Zach Britton on our club, but there are teams interested,” Duquette said.  Britton is also due for a hefty arbitration payday ($11.4MM) in the wake of his excellent 2016 season, and there has been speculation that the O’s could sell high on Britton now given the large demand for relief pitching this offseason.  One would think it would take a pretty significant offer to pry Britton out of Baltimore, as Duquette has said both here and in prior interviews that he wants to keep the closer.

Indians Interested In Several FA First Basemen; Jays In On Mitch Moreland

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10:48pm: Moreland has “emerged as a real possibility” for the Blue Jays, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports, which could lessen the chances of Edwin Encarnacion returning to Toronto.

9:47am: The Indians remain interested in re-signing free agent first baseman/designated hitter Mike Napoli, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, who tweets that Chris Carter, Mitch Moreland and Adam Lind are also on the team’s radar.

Napoli was a key member of the American League champions’ offense in 2016, as he hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 home runs in 645 plate appearances. The 35-year-old did that on a palatable $7MM salary, but given the wide interest in him across the majors, a raise is likely. While Napoli is reportedly seeking a three-year deal, the Indians once again want to give him a one-year pact.

As a powerful, high-strikeout, right-handed hitter who provides negative defensive and baserunning value, Carter is quite similar to Napoli. Carter’s also younger (he’ll turn 30 next week) and, on the heels of the Brewers cutting him in lieu of paying him an estimated $8.1MM salary, could come at a cheaper cost than Napoli. Carter’s production last season in Milwaukee was right in line with Napoli’s, as he slashed .222/.321/.499 and amassed a National League-high 41 homers in 644 trips to the plate. He also struck out in 32 percent of PAs and walked at an 11.8 percent clip, while Napoli was at 30.1 and 12.1 in those categories.

Both Moreland and Lind are left-handed hitters, and each was decidedly less impressive than Napoli and Carter in 2016. Moreland, 31, did hit 20-plus home runs for the third straight season (22, to be exact), but the longtime Ranger posted a below-average batting line (.233/.298/.422 in 503 PAs) for the third time in the past four years. The Blue Jays are also in the mix for Moreland’s services, according to Morosi (Twitter link), even though Toronto already has multiple first base/DH types in Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak.

While Lind had typically been a capable offensive piece entering last season, that wasn’t the case in his only year with the Mariners. Like Moreland, Lind hit the 20-HR mark for the third consecutive season. The 33-year-old nonetheless underwhelmed, though, with a .239/.286/.431 output in 420 PAs.

Adding any of these players would give the Indians the opportunity to continue shifting Carlos Santana between DH and first base in 2017. The seven-year veteran saw more time at DH than first (92 games to 64) last season, which hadn’t happened since 2013.

Nippon-Ham Fighters Planning To Post Shohei Otani After 2017 Season

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The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters are planning to post two-way superstar Shohei Otani after the 2017 season, according to a report from Sponichi (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports has follow-up tweets).  Should the team follow through next winter, Otani would immediately become one of the most sought-after members of the 2017-18 free agent class.

Since the Fighters have five remaining years of control over Otani before he was eligible to come to North America as a full free agent, this move comes as quite a surprise.  Otani just turned 22 last July and he helped lead the Fighters to the 2016 Japan Series championship after an all-around spectacular season.  Not only did Otani post a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 K/9 and 3.87 K/BB rate over 140 innings, he also hit .322/.416/.588 with 22 homers over 382 plate appearances as a designated hitter.  In Otani’s four professional seasons, he sandwiched a good year at the plate in 2014 between mediocre hitting performances in 2013 and 2015 before his superstar-level breakout this year.

Otani has long drawn the attention of MLB scouts, and he even considered foregoing Nippon Professional Baseball altogether in order to go to the majors as a teenager before agreeing to accept being drafted by the Fighters.  The right-hander has a four-pitch arsenal that includes a fastball that has topped out at 102mph, though he generally throws it in the 95-97mph range.  As a hitter, Otani swings from the left side and has displayed tape-measure power.

At the end of the 2017 season, Otani will be 23 and will have played five seasons in NPB, which would’ve made him eligible to sign with any team as an international free agent under the old rules of the collective bargaining agreement.  (Though he would’ve been subject to the existing posting rules for Japanese players.)  Under the new collective bargaining agreement, international players will only be ineligible from the stricter international bonus pool system if they’ve played six years in a recognized top league (like Cuba’s Serie Nacional) or are older than 25; years old.  It isn’t yet clear whether those rules apply to just Cuban players or to all international talents.  In any case, the overall stricter international signing policies have created some debate about when and how Otani would be impacted, though Passan tweeted earlier this week that some adjustments could be made to accommodate Otani or other Japanese players.

Assuming some adjustments are indeed made to allow Otani to be posted normally, any MLB team willing to cough up a $20MM posting fee to the Fighters will be eligible to negotiate with Otani.  Once he agrees to a (no doubt very sizeable) contract with a North American club, only the team that actually signs Otani would pay that $20MM fee to Nippon-Ham, leaving the Fighters with relatively little financial incentive to be posting their best talent.  One would think that Otani has perhaps requested to be posted, hence the early decision by the team.

Twins Sign Ben Paulsen To Minors Contract

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The Twins have signed first baseman/outfielder Ben Paulsen to a minor league deal, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link).  The contract contains an invitation to Minnesota’s big league Spring Training camp.

Paulsen was outrighted off of Colorado’s 40-man roster in September and granted free agency after the season.  The 29-year-old saw regular action for the Rockies at first base and in left field in 2015, when he hit .277/.326/.462 with 11 homers over 354 plate appearances, but he appeared in just 39 games last season and spent the bulk of 2016 at Triple-A.  Of Paulsen’s 517 career PA in the bigs, 458 of them have come against right-handed pitching (he has a .758 career OPS against southpaws) and he has significant home-away splits — an .810 OPS at the batter-friendly Coors Field and a .705 OPS on the road.

With Joe Mauer locked into the Twins’ first base job, Paulsen can provide some left-handed hitting depth, or an alternative to Byung Ho Park (a righty bat) or the switch-hitting Kennys Vargas at DH.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Solarte, Astros, Rays, De La Rosa, A’s

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The latest column from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explores how the luxury tax threshold’s relatively small annual increases as per the new collective bargaining agreement could lead to teams placing an even greater importance on locking their young talent up to long-term extensions.  Rosenthal also shares some hot stove buzz…

  • The Padres are “aggressively” shopping Yangervis Solarte.  The third baseman has posted solid numbers over the last two seasons, including hitting .286/.341/.467 with 15 homers over 443 plate appearances last year.  The 29-year-old Solarte is projected by MLBTR to earn $2.7MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and his three years of remaining team control would make him an intriguing trade chip for teams in need of infield help.
  • The Astros are continuing to “pay really close attention” to the Rays’ starting pitchers, according to sources.  Houston has made several lineup upgrades (Brian McCann, Josh Reddick and now Carlos Beltran) this offseason but Charlie Morton is the only addition to a rotation that underachieved in 2016.  Tampa is widely expected to deal at least one of Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb or Drew Smyly this winter.  The Astros are known to have interest in Archer, though he would command the highest price of the lot.
  • Jorge De La Rosa is telling teams that he is willing to pitch as a multi-inning reliever.  De La Rosa pitched three games in relief last season, his first bullpen outings since 2009.  The veteran southpaw posted a 5.51 ERA, 1.71 K/BB rate and 7.3 K/9 over 134 innings for the Rockies in 2016, so between those lackluster numbers and his age (he turns 36 in April), it isn’t surprising that De La Rosa is willing to be flexible to increase his market.
  • Dave Kaval’s new role as the Athletics’ president could potentially lead to some changes in how the A’s do business.  With Kaval looking to secure a new ballpark in Oakland and generally trying to change the club’s profile, a “more of the same” deal of a star for prospects (i.e. dealing Sonny Gray) wouldn’t help Kaval’s objectives.  That said, Rosenthal writes that “it’s difficult to imagine” the change in management having any impact on how Billy Beane does business.

Latest On Edwin Encarnacion’s Market

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The Blue Jays’ four-year, $80MM offer to Edwin Encarnacion has been taken off the table, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  Though that initial offer — made before Toronto signed Kendrys Morales — no longer stands, the Jays are reportedly still interested in Encarnacion’s services, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  Encarnacion is still “in play” for the Jays, Rangers and potentially two National League teams, who have called about the slugger with an eye towards using him as an everyday first baseman.

It probably isn’t a surprise that the Jays withdrew their offer in the wake of the Morales signing, as according to Encarnacion’s agent Paul Kinzer earlier this week, the two sides hadn’t talked numbers since that initial offer.  Other teams had made offers, though Toronto was “showing Edwin the most love,” in Kinzer’s words.  As Rosenthal notes in another tweet, however, the Blue Jays are also still exploring the outfield market, and they could forego re-signing Encarnacion if they land a big-ticket outfielder like Dexter Fowler.

Kinzer has also indicated that he and his client could be looking for five years and as much as a $25MM average annual value, though those comments are now almost a month old.  Five years in the $125MM range may have been a high target anyway (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Encarnacion to land four years and $92MM) and it could be an even longer shot given that Encarnacion’s market seems to have shrunk in recent days.  The Red Sox don’t seem to be in hot pursuit given their reluctance to surpass the luxury tax threshold again, while the Astros and Yankees have addressed their DH needs with less-costly one-year deals with Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday, respectively.

In regards to the Rangers, GM Jon Daniels told reporters (including the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson) today that the team was more likely to use internal options like Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo or Ryan Rua to handle first base than a free agent.  This could, of course, be some negotiating gamesmanship on Daniels’ part, as entrusting both the first base and DH spots to those inexperienced players would seem like an odd move for a contender, notwithstanding Profar and Gallo’s blue-chip prospect status.

As I noted in my Encarnacion free agent profile, the Orioles, White Sox, Rockies and Marlins make some sense as speculative fits for the slugger, though it isn’t known whether any of those teams are willing or financially able to make such a big splash.  Among NL teams, even Miami is something of a longshot since the Fish are more apt to be looking for a right-handed complement to Justin Bour (who had quite a solid season) rather than an outright replacement.  Unless a first base job opens up due to an injury or another trade, there doesn’t seem to be much room for Encarnacion within the National League.

Dodgers, Rich Hill Nearing Agreement

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SUNDAY, 7:09pm: An official announcement from the Dodgers about a Hill agreement isn’t likely to happen tonight, Andy McCullough tweets.

SATURDAY, 6:48pm: The Dodgers and Hill are “closing in” on a contract, tweets Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. They’re unlikely to reach an agreement today, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, though he corroborates Plunkett’s report that a deal is forthcoming (Twitter link). The Dodgers aren’t facing much of any competition from Hill’s previously reported suitors – the Astros, Rangers or Yankees – according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

4:02pm: Another team who tried to negotiate a deal with free agent starter Rich Hill believes the lefty has a three-year contract worth $40MM or more in place with the Dodgers, Peter Gammons tweets. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe tells a similar story, saying the Dodgers might already have a deal in place for Hill for three years and $46MM-$48MM. Cafardo, though, emphasizes the possibility that one of a number of East Coast teams could still sign him. No move has been confirmed by Hill or the Dodgers at this point, however.

The latest rumors about Hill had the Dodgers as one of four teams bidding for his services, along with the Yankees, Rangers and Astros. The Red Sox and Orioles were also believed to be interested. Hill, of course, is coming off an outstanding age-36 season with the Athletics and Dodgers during which he posted a 2.12 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 110 1/3 innings, including a start in which he was pulled a perfect game after seven innings. His performance in 2016 landed him the No. 14 spot on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, making him one of the top starters available.

The downsides with Hill are his age and his lengthy injury history — even in his 2016 breakout campaign, he dealt with blister problems and a groin injury. As Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times points out via Twitter, though, the Dodgers’ depth puts them in position to take advantage of Hill’s upside while minimizing their risk if he’s not available to pitch. Particularly given Hill’s vanishingly low 2016 home run rate of 0.33 per nine innings, there’s reason to be somewhat skeptical of his ability to repeat his incredible performance last season. He could regress a fair amount in the next couple years and still be a vital contributor, however, and if he does return to the Dodgers, he should provide their rotation with a healthy boost if he’s able to stay healthy.

For Hill, a $40MM-plus contract would represent an enormous financial windfall — he has spent most of his career as a journeyman and has never had a long-term deal. He’s also never made more in a season than the $6MM he made last year.

The Dodgers are currently dealing with debt issues, but those issues seem unlikely to prevent them from pursuing a free agent of Hill’s stature, and the team has not been required to reduce its payroll. In addition to Hill, the team has also been fleetingly linked to other potentially expensive or relatively expensive players like Aroldis Chapman and Andrew McCutchen.

Latest On Chris Sale’s Trade Market

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5:45pm: Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters (including Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram) that his team isn’t looking at the trades like the blockbuster that brought Cole Hamels to Texas in 2015, which would seem to confirm that the Rangers indeed aren’t in on Sale right now.

SUNDAY, 1:40pm: Mark Bowman of MLB.com joins Heyman in reporting that the Braves aren’t willing to give up Swanson, whom the White Sox covet. Discussions between the two teams aren’t leading anywhere as a result (Twitter link). While it won’t surrender Swanson, Atlanta would consider parting with Albies, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

10:51am: The Braves have deemed Swanson untouchable in trade talks, while the Nationals have likely done the same with shortstop/center fielder Trea Turner, reports Heyman.

SATURDAY: The Braves have already added three starting pitchers in Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia early this offseason, and they’re now trying to swing a trade with the White Sox for ace Chris Sale, according to Fanrag’s Jon Heyman. However, there’s competition in the form of the Astros, Nationals, Red Sox, Rangers and Dodgers, writes Heyman, who notes that Los Angeles is lagging behind because it’s hesitant to deal any of its top prospects.

The Dodgers are more focused on bolstering their rotation through free agency than trades, tweets FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, which aligns with a report from earlier Saturday that they have a deal in place to re-sign left-hander Rich Hill. Contrary to Heyman, Rosenthal relays that the Astros and Rangers are out on Sale at the White Sox’s current asking price. And while the Red Sox are involved, they’re also reluctant to meet Chicago’s demands (Twitter link).

After agreeing to sign outfielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran on Saturday, Astros owner Jim Crane told Mark Berman of FOX 26 that the team will go into the winter meetings seeking pitching, but it’s unlikely to make any “big moves” (Twitter link). That would seem to rule out a Sale acquisition for Houston.

Based on reports from Heyman and Rosenthal, both the Braves and National League East rival Nats – who are continuing their discussions with the Pirates regarding center fielder Andrew McCutchen, per Rosenthal – are among the front-runners for Sale.

It’s unlikely the Braves would include prized young shortstop Dansby Swanson in a trade, Heyman suggests, but the belief is that they have the pieces to make a deal happen. Atlanta has major league trade chips in center fielder Ender Inciarte and right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, not to mention a well-regarded prospect pool that features the likes of middle infielder Ozzie Albies, southpaws Sean Newcomb and Kolby Allard, and righties Mike Soroka and Touki Toussaint. Baseball America included all five of those players in its Midseason Top 100 prospects list.

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