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Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal

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December 3rd: The full breakdown is provided by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Cease gets a $23MM signing bonus and then a $22MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $30MM in 2027 and falls by $1MM in each subsequent season. $10MM of his 2026 salary is deferred followed by $9MM in each season after that. The deal also contains awards bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.

December 2nd: The Jays made it official today, announcing they have signed Cease to a seven-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the MLBPA values the contract at roughly $184.6MM after adjusting for the deferred money.

November 26th: The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Giants Sign Sam Hentges

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December 3rd: The Giants officially announced the Hentges signing today.

November 27th: The Giants and left-hander Sam Hentges have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.4MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Giants have an open 40-man spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move when the deal becomes official. The southpaw is represented by Warner Sports Management.

It’s a buy-low wild card move for the Giants. Hentges was a solid bullpen piece for the Guardians a few years ago but he hasn’t been healthy for a while. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, Hentges tossed 114 1/3 innings for Cleveland, allowing 2.91 earned runs per nine. His 7.9% walk rate was just barely better than average while his 27.4% strikeout rate and 60.1% ground ball rate were both very strong. He gradually moved up to high leverage work, earning 23 holds over that span.

In 2024, he kept things going for a while, posting a 3.04 ERA over another 23 2/3 innings. However, he hit the injured list in July due to some inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He required surgery in September, a procedure which came with a recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months.

Though he was likely to going miss most or all of 2025, the Guards still kept him around. He was still under club control through 2027, so there was still a potential long-term payoff. He had qualified for arbitration ahead of 2024 as a Super Two player and made $1.1625MM in his first of four arb seasons. The Guards gave him a slight bump to $1.337MM in 2025. Even if he couldn’t manage a late-season return to health, he would still have two further seasons of control.

In 2025, not only did he not make it back to the majors, but he didn’t even begin a rehab assignment. In September, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. That procedure comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. That means he should be healthy by the spring but the Guards decided to move on. They non-tendered Hentges last week, sending him to free agency.

The Giants have swooped in and will sign Hentges, giving him a slight raise over last year, even though he missed the whole season. San Francisco non-tendered Joey Lucchesi last week but currently has Erik Miller, Matt Gage and Reiver Sanmartin as lefties in their bullpen. Hentges is obviously a big unknown, having missed a season and a half at this point. But if he can get back to health, he could be the best southpaw in the bunch.

If he does get back on track, he would be a bargain at a salary barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. He is out of options but could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season if things go especially well next year.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

The Opener: Astros, Fairbanks, Blue Jays

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Astros 40-man roster move incoming:

The Astros are reportedly signing right-hander Ryan Weiss to a major league deal, bringing him over from the Korea Baseball Organization. The Astros have a full 40-man roster, so they’ll need to make a move in order to accommodate their new signing. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible Houston could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. That could be a minor trade of a low-level player on the 40-man, but a bigger deal is also possible given that Houston is reportedly receiving interest in outfielders Jake Meyers and Jesus Sanchez on the trade market.

2. Fairbanks next to move?

Former Rays right-hander Pete Fairbanks was a somewhat unexpected addition to this year’s free agent market after the Rays declined their $11MM club option on his services for the 2026 season. He’s garnered plenty of interest in the weeks since then, with the Tigers, Marlins, and Blue Jays among a number of teams known to be involved in his market on at least some level. The relief market has gotten moving faster than the rest of this winter’s free agent class, with names such as Raisel Iglesias, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley and Phil Maton having already come off the board on notable contracts. Could Fairbanks be the next domino to fall?

3. What’s next for the Jays?

The Blue Jays reportedly reached an agreement with right-hander Cody Ponce yesterday, and in doing so added a second starter to a rotation that already brought in Dylan Cease earlier this winter. With Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios already in place from last year plus top prospect Trey Yesavage and depth options like Eric Lauer, Yariel Rodriguez, and Bowden Francis, the addition of Ponce creates a glut of rotation options. Perhaps a pivot to the trade market could make some sense to leverage that depth, though it’s also worth noting that star shortstop Bo Bichette remains unsigned and the Jays, as previously mentioned, remain involved in the market for Fairbanks and other high-end relief arms.

Angels Sign Alek Manoah To Major League Deal

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The Angels announced they have signed right-hander Alek Manoah to a major league deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN previously reported the agreement and that Manoah will make $1.95MM next year. The Halos had multiple 40-man vacancies and didn’t need to make a corresponding move for the Covenant Sports Group client.

It’s a clear buy-low move for the Angels. Manoah was once a first round pick and top prospect, then became a Cy Young candidate as of a few years ago. But more recently, injuries and underperformance bumped his stock to the point that he was non-tendered by Atlanta last month.

The Blue Jays selected Manoah 11th overall in 2019. By 2021, he was making big league starts. He took the ball 20 times that year and threw 111 2/3 innings, allowing 3.22 earned runs per nine. His 8.7% walk rate was around average while his 27.7% strikeout rate was quite strong. 2022 was his first full season. He made 31 starts and logged 196 2/3 innings with a 2.24 ERA. His strikeout rate dropped to 22.9% but he also improved his walk rate to a 6.5% clip. He finished third in American League Cy Young voting behind Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

It’s basically been downhill since then. He struggled badly enough in 2023 to get optioned to the minors multiple times. He finished the year with a 5.87 ERA over 19 starts. His strikeouts dipped to a subpar 19% rate while his walk rate climbed to an ugly 14.2% pace.

Going into 2024, the Jays reportedly had some openness to trading Manoah, with the Angels checking in on him at that time. However, the Jays didn’t pull the trigger on a deal and he opened the 2024 season with Toronto. He was slowed by some shoulder soreness during the spring and began the season on the injured list. He was reinstated in May and then made five decent starts, with a 3.70 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. However, he then went back on the IL, this time due to an elbow sprain. He required Tommy John surgery in June of that year.

Manoah then spent the rest of that season on the IL. The Jays held him on the roster through the winter and tendered him a contract. They avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.2MM salary for 2025.  They then put him back on the 60-day IL in March. He began a rehab assignment in July. Rehab assignments normally are capped at 30 days for pitchers but guys recovering from Tommy John can push that to 60.

By the middle of September, Manoah’s clock was up but the Jays had a rotation featuring Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Chris Bassitt, José Berríos and Max Scherzer, with Trey Yesavage lurking in Triple-A. Manoah also hadn’t done much to force the issue, as he had a 19.6% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate during his rehab outings. He was reinstated from the IL but optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

Later that month, the Jays needed a 40-man spot to reinstate Anthony Santander from the 60-day IL. Manoah was designated for assignment as the corresponding move. With the trade deadline having passed, the Jays had to put him on waivers, with Atlanta claiming him. They held him on their roster for a while but then non-tendered him. It might seem a bit odd to claim a player off waivers and then cut him shortly thereafter. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible Atlanta tried to sign him for 2026 but then non-tendered him when they couldn’t agree on the price point.

For the Halos, it’s a low-cost bet on a bounceback. The salary isn’t much beyond the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. Manoah also still has options, so it’s possible he could be pitching in Triple-A as depth.

Pitching has been a weakness for the club for quite a while and 2025 was no exception. The staff as a whole had a 4.89 ERA this year, putting them ahead of just the Rockies and Nationals. That includes a 4.91 ERA from the rotation, again ahead of just Washington and Colorado. Tyler Anderson became a free agent at season’s end, thinning out the group even more.

Going into 2026, there is very little certainty in the rotation group. Yusei Kikuchi and José Soriano have two spots spoken for. Reid Detmers seems like he’ll get a chance to return to the rotation but he’s a big question mark after struggling in 2024 and then pitching out of the bullpen in 2025. There are a few other guys in the mix, such as Jack Kochanowicz, Caden Dana and Sam Aldegheri, though those guys have fairly mixed track records.

Since the offseason has begun, this is the second time the Angels have bought low on a former big name. A couple of weeks ago, they traded Taylor Ward to the Orioles in order to nab Grayson Rodriguez. It’s a somewhat similar situation to Manoah, as Rodriguez was the 11th overall pick in 2018 but has seen his career thrown off course by injuries. Perhaps the Angels will make more of a surefire rotation addition later in the winter but they have stuck with the less certain guys so far.

It’s hard to know what to expect from Manoah now. It’s been a few years since he was both healthy and effective. He was averaging just 91 miles per hour on his fastball in Triple-A this year. That’s almost three ticks below his 2022 season, when he averaged 93.9 mph. Perhaps being further removed from his surgery will allow him to find a new gear. If not, the Angels won’t have lost much. If it works out, Manoah will finish the 2026 season with less than six years of service, so he could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season.

Photos courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Astros Have Received Interest In Jesus Sanchez

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The Astros are losing Framber Valdez to free agency, leaving them in need of multiple starting pitchers behind ace Hunter Brown. Houston has taken cheap one-year fliers on former top prospect Nate Pearson and KBO returnee Ryan Weiss to compete for spots at the back of the staff. Those are fine dice rolls, but they’ll need to acquire someone whom they can comfortably slot alongside Cristian Javier in the middle of the rotation.

If owner Jim Crane remains loathe to cross the luxury tax line, the front office won’t have much flexibility to add free agent starting pitching. Chandler Rome of The Athletic writes that the club is indeed more likely to address the rotation via trade. One of the league’s weakest farm systems won’t do them any favors, so they might be looking at dealing from the MLB roster to accomplish that.

Houston is reportedly open to dealing standout defensive center fielder Jake Meyers for pitching. Meyers is coming off a career-best season at the plate and is controllable via arbitration for two seasons. He’s the best trade chip in the Houston outfield, but he’s not the only candidate to move this offseason. Rome reports that the Astros have gotten interest from other clubs in right fielder Jesús Sánchez as well.

That could explain why Sánchez remains on the roster at all. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $6.5MM salary in his third of four trips through the arbitration process. It came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract. Sánchez had a very poor finish to the 2025 season, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances after being acquired from Miami at the trade deadline. Combined with the escalating salaries and the payroll restrictions, it made him a non-tender candidate.

General manager Dana Brown acknowledged at last month’s GM Meetings that he was open to trade inquiries on Sánchez. Even if they’re not especially interested in paying him $6-7MM, it seems they found enough interest that they didn’t want to let him go for no return.

Sánchez isn’t going to net a mid-rotation arm, but it’s possible they swap him for a back-end starter. Teams like the Royals, Pirates, Guardians and Phillies could look to the trade market for a corner outfielder. While Sánchez has never lived up to his billing as a top prospect, he was an alright everyday player throughout his time with the Marlins. He was a league average hitter between 2021 and the ’25 deadline, hitting .246/.312/.432 in nearly 1900 plate appearances. He has plus bat speed and has typically posted strong exit velocities, though his batted ball metrics also collapsed in Houston.

Even if the Astros are unlikely to swap Sánchez for their biggest rotation pickup of the offseason, a change-of-scenery deal would create a bit of spending room. Trading both Sánchez and Meyers would leave them very thin in the outfield, and dealing the former would subtract one of their few left-handed bats. While Dana Brown has already said they’re not interested in moving Isaac Paredes, that might be something the front office needs to consider later in the offseason if they can’t find a mid-rotation arm in a different way.

Latest On Kyle Schwarber’s Market

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The Reds remain in the market for Kyle Schwarber, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. That has been a frequent connection because Schwarber grew up a Reds fan not far outside Cincinnati. The club also needs to add an impact bat, though it remains to be seen if they’re willing to make a competitive offer.

Cincinnati finished 14th in MLB in scoring despite playing in one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly venues. They had a .245/.315/.391 slash line and finished 21st in home runs. Elly De La Cruz was the team leader with 22 homers, and their only two hitters who slugged at least .450 in more than 100 plate appearances (Miguel Andujar and Austin Hays) are free agents. The Reds need offense generally and would benefit from a power bat in particular.

Schwarber is the best slugger available. He’s coming off a 56-homer season in which he hit .240/.365/.563 while starting all 162 games for the Phillies. He hasn’t hit fewer than 30 homers in a full season since 2018 and is tied with Shohei Ohtani for second in MLB (behind Aaron Judge) in longballs over the last four years.

Cincinnati doesn’t have anyone locked into the everyday DH role. They’ll probably want to give 22-year-old Sal Stewart more time to see if he can be a serviceable defender at first base. Spencer Steer could play left field more frequently or simply be shopped in trade if the Reds were to add Schwarber (or Pete Alonso, a long speculated potential fit).

While it’s a clear fit from a roster perspective, it’d require an unusually bold commitment from ownership. Schwarber is expected to handily surpass a $100MM guarantee and could land $30MM+ annually. The Reds have given out two nine-figure contracts in franchise history: $225MM for Joey Votto and $105MM to Homer Bailey. Those were both extensions. Their largest free agent deals were the matching four-year, $64MM terms to Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. Those $16MM average annual values were the most for any multi-year free agent signing. Schwarber might require twice that amount.

President of baseball operations Nick Krall said last month that the Reds expect to run a similar payroll to this past season’s level. They opened ’25 with a payroll around $116MM. They have around $40MM in guaranteed contracts but have a hefty arbitration class that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost roughly $45MM.

Filling out the roster with players making the league minimum would leave them with roughly $20-25MM to spend. They’ll certainly add a bat of some significance, but a Schwarber signing might require ownership to push the budget beyond where they seemingly prefer to set it. The other option would be to shed money from the arbitration class by shopping one or more of Brady Singer ($11.9MM projection), Tyler Stephenson ($6.4MM), Gavin Lux ($5MM), TJ Friedl ($4.9MM), Nick Lodolo ($4.3MM) or Steer ($4.5MM).

In a less obvious connection, Jon Morosi of The MLB Network relayed this morning that the Giants have also been in contact with Schwarber’s camp. That’s a much more difficult fit from a roster perspective. San Francisco has Rafael Devers under contract through 2033. Even if they’re confident he’ll be a capable everyday first baseman, they’d need at-bats at designated hitter for top first base prospect Bryce Eldridge. There’s an argument for the Giants to bring in a short-term first baseman/DH to give the 21-year-old Eldridge more time in Triple-A, but that wouldn’t apply to a four- or five-year contract for Schwarber.

The Giants presumably wouldn’t have any interest in using Schwarber as an everyday outfielder. There’d only be any kind of fit if they trade Eldridge for a starter. They’ve already downplayed their desire to make a nine-figure commitment to a starter despite calling pitching their top priority. It’d be a huge surprise if they committed that kind of money to a DH.

Schwarber rejected a qualifying offer, so whichever team signs him will forfeit draft compensation. Philadelphia has made no secret of their desire to bring him back. The Orioles and Red Sox are both in the market for an impact bat and have shown interest, while the Pirates have been mentioned as an extreme long shot after making an unsuccessful attempt to lure Josh Naylor away from Seattle.

Marlins Notes: Cabrera, Alcantara, Weathers, Outfield, Bullpen

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While much of the focus regarding the Marlins this offseason has been on their intent to spend more aggressively (relatively speaking) and bolster the lineup, the Fish still have a pair of prominent trade candidates in the rotation. Right-handers Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are on wishlists for pitching-hungry clubs around the league, though neither is a lock to be moved.

Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish On First reported last week that the organization “expects” Alcantara to be with the club come Opening Day. MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola offers a similar sentiment today, suggesting that Cabrera is the likelier of the two to be moved this offseason — if either is traded at all. Miami isn’t actively shopping either pitcher at the moment, she writes, though it’s all but a given that there’ll be an uptick in inquiries at next week’s Winter Meetings. De Nicola also lists lefty Ryan Weathers as a potential trade candidate while rightly noting that the Fish would be selling low on a talented southpaw after consecutive injury-plagued seasons.

Acquired in the 2023 trade sending Garrett Cooper to the Padres, Weathers has been a steal for Miami when healthy. That’s been a major caveat, unfortunately. A lat strain, flexor strain and finger strain have combined to limit the former No. 7 overall draft pick to just 24 starts dating back to Opening Day 2024. Weathers has totaled 125 innings in that time and notched a 3.74 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. That league-average strikeout rate is backed by a roughly average 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Weathers has sat 96.2 mph on his heater since ’24 and kept a strong 45.6% of batted balls against him on the ground. As with Cabrera, he’s a clear injury risk but has had some recent success and comes with another three seasons of club control.

Cabrera stands as the prize of the Marlins’ potential trade candidates in the rotation, but because of his age (27), affordable salary ($3.7MM projection, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), former top prospect status and 2025 results (3.53 ERA, 25.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 46.6 GB% in 137 2/3 innings), he also surely comes with the highest asking price.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN wrote just this morning that Miami has asked for “premium prospects” in for any club that has poked around on Cabrera, and the right-hander’s lengthy injury history has left interested parties wary of making such a commitment. The 2025 season was Cabrera’s first reaching 100 innings in the majors, and he’s spent time on the injured list with an elbow sprain, blisters, shoulder impingement (three times) and tendinitis in his elbow — all since 2021.

Certainly, the Marlins could use their deep supply of starting pitching to bring in some bats to help the lineup, but free agency remains a viable path as well. They’ve primarily focused on first base to this point, but Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that president of baseball ops Peter Bendix and his staff have begun to broaden their search. Miami is also looking into potential outfield and third base acquisitions, believing that the versatility of players like Connor Norby and Griffin Conine could allow them to target bats at other positions.

It’s already known that the Marlins have been considering Norby at first base. Jackson adds that the Fish are planning to get Conine some work at first next spring and also believe that outfielder Heriberto Hernandez could be an option there.

The bullpen has been another point of focus for Bendix & Co., with reports tying Miami to prominent names like Devin Williams (who has since signed with the Mets), Raisel Iglesias (who re-signed in Atlanta) and Pete Fairbanks (who Bendix knows well from his days as Rays general manager). Jackson adds veteran relievers Kyle Finnegan, Tyler Rogers and twin brother Taylor Rogers as three more bullpen arms who intrigue the Marlins.

Finnegan, 34, has closed games for the division-rival Nationals for years but elevated his production to new heights following a summer trade to the Tigers. Detroit pushed Finnegan to use his splitter more and tweaked his release point, and the right-hander was flat-out dominant in the Motor City, emerging as one of manager A.J. Hinch’s go-to relievers. He tossed 18 innings of 1.50 ERA ball following the trade and saw his strikeout rate jump from 19.6% in D.C. to an eye-popping 34.8% in Detroit.

The Rogers brothers have lengthy track records themselves. Taylor, a lefty, was a high-end setup man and All-Star closer with the Twins during his peak years from 2017-22. He’s settled into more of a middle relief role since signing with the Giants — where he teamed with his brother — and subsequently being traded to the Reds and Cubs.

While Taylor was the prominent name early in the brothers’ careers, it’s Tyler who is now the higher-profile reliever. He’s pitched 378 1/3 innings of 2.71 ERA ball dating back to 2021, including a pristine 1.98 earned run average in 77 1/3 frames between the Giants and Mets in 2025. Tyler doesn’t miss many bats, as one would expect from a soft-tossing right-handed submariner whose sinker averages 83.5 mph, but he has impeccable command (2.2% walk rate since 2024) and is all but impossible to square up due to the deception in his delivery. Tyler has the slowest “fastball” and lowest whiff percentage in the majors but also sits in the 95th percentile (or better) of big league pitchers in terms of opponents’ exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

At the moment, Miami has a projected 2026 payroll of just $59MM, per RosterResource. They’re sitting just under $70MM in luxury tax obligations. The general thinking has been that, like the A’s last offseason, the Marlins will want to push that CBT number closer to $105MM in order to avoid any type of MLBPA grievance that might jeopardize their revenue-sharing status. That could be achieved by bringing in free agents, trading for veterans on guaranteed salaries, or extending players already on the roster. The Marlins have reportedly spoken to both Kyle Stowers and Eury Perez about long-term deals; talks with either player could pick back up later in the offseason.

Cubs Sign Scott Kingery To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs signed utility player Scott Kingery to a minor league contract, the team informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of The Chicago Sun-Times). He’ll be in MLB camp as a non-roster invitee.

Kingery returned to the majors this past season, getting into 19 games with the Angels. It marked his first MLB action in three years. His 29 MLB plate appearances were the most he logged in a season dating back to 2020. The former top Phillies prospect recored four hits with two walks and 11 strikeouts. He has a lifetime .227/.278/.382 batting line in nearly 1200 career plate appearances, almost all of which came in Philadelphia from 2018-19.

Now 31, Kingery spent most of this year at Triple-A Salt Lake. He batted .228/.284/.402 while striking out in a quarter of his trips to the plate. It was a step back from his more impressive ’24 season with the Phillies’ top affiliate, when Kingery had a 25-25 season in the minors.

The Cubs won’t expect much offensively from the right-handed hitter. Kingery provides defensive versatility and plays anywhere on the diamond aside from first base and catcher. He’s an above-average runner who’ll compete for a spot on Craig Counsell’s bench during Spring Training.

Tigers Have Interest In Michael King

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The Tigers have expressed interest in free agent starter Michael King, reports Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press. King has also been tied to the Yankees, Cubs, Blue Jays and Marlins — though the latter two teams are unlikely fits. Toronto is probably done adding to the rotation now that they’ve agreed to a three-year deal with Cody Ponce. Miami has bigger priorities on the infield and in the bullpen and always seemed a long shot to spend at this level.

King is coming off an injury-shortened season in which he was limited to 15 starts. A nerve issue in his throwing shoulder proved a lot more irritating than initially expected and wound up costing him two and a half months. He also had a minimal injured list stint due to knee inflammation. King looked shaky when he returned in September, allowing 10 runs with a modest 11:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 15 2/3 innings.

That adds some risk to his first career trip through free agency. A fully healthy version of King is one of the best pitchers in MLB, though. He finished seventh in NL Cy Young balloting during the 2024 season. King turned in a 2.95 earned run average across 173 2/3 innings in his first full season as a big league starter. He was out to an even better start this year, working to a 2.59 ERA with a 28% strikeout rate over 10 appearances before the nerve injury.

There wasn’t any structural damage. King finished the season healthy, though the Padres didn’t trust him enough to start over Yu Darvish in an elimination game in the Wild Card Series. They were content to make him a qualifying offer, which probably would not have been the case if they felt the injury might impact him in 2026. King rejected in search of a multi-year contract. He’s generally not expected to return to San Diego.

The Tigers are in the market for starting and relief help. They don’t have a clear #2 starter behind Tarik Skubal. That’d probably fall to Reese Olson, but he missed the final two months of 2025 to a shoulder strain. Jack Flaherty is back after exercising his $20MM player option following an up-and-down year. Casey Mize pitched well overall but is more of a #3 or high-end fourth starter than someone the Tigers would want directly behind Skubal in a playoff series. Jackson Jobe won’t be available until the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June.

Rookie righty Troy Melton, who pitched out of the MLB bullpen down the stretch, would probably be the fifth starter if the season opened tomorrow. Keider Montero and Sawyer Gipson-Long lead a thin collection of depth arms. Everyone from that group has minor league options and could work from the bullpen. All teams use more than five starters, so the Tigers certainly need at least one or two additions to protect against injuries.

Blue Jays Still Exploring Rotation Additions After Dylan Cease Deal

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The Blue Jays made a big move to upgrade their rotation by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal, but they may not be done. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Jays have remained engaged on the starting pitching market even after agreeing to terms with Cease. The report mentions that the Jays had interest in Joe Ryan of the Twins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, while also suggesting the Jays have some interest in free agents Michael King and Cody Ponce.

The Toronto rotation currently projects to include Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis in the mix as well.

That’s a pretty strong group but there are some question marks. Bieber’s decision to trigger his $16MM player option has led to speculation he may not be 100% healthy. He could have taken a $4MM buyout and returned to free agency, only needing to get $12MM to come out ahead, but a new deal would have required him to pass a physical. To be clear, that’s entirely speculative. There has been no public indication anything is wrong with Bieber, but it’s one possible explanation for why he didn’t pursue a larger deal. Another explanation could be that he simply wanted to stay with the Jays for another year before heading to free agency after a fully healthy season.

Beyond that, Gausman turns 35 in January. Yesavage had a tremendous debut late in the year but is still light on big league experience. Berríos had a mediocre 2025 and finished the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, though he is supposedly going to have a normal offseason. Lauer worked both as a starter and a reliever in 2025 and seems likely to do so again next year. Tiedemann has been on prospect lists for years but already had workload concerns before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season. Francis had a good showing in 2024 but was held back by shoulder problems this year.

There’s also the long-term picture to consider. Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all slated for free agency after 2026. Berríos can also opt-out of his deal at that time. There’s reportedly been some consideration of trading Berríos but that will be a challenge considering his health status, results and opt-out. The general point is that there’s not a lot of long-term certainty. Signing Cease upgraded the rotation for the upcoming campaign and beyond. Yet another acquisition could do the same.

Gore is a pretty straightforward trade candidate. The Nationals are rebuilding and aren’t likely to be contending for a while. Gore is controlled for two more years and is represented by the Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras clients never sign extensions but it’s a decent bet that Gore and Boras are looking forward to free agency.

It’s notable that the Jays were interested in him ahead of the deadline but his situation has changed a bit since then. He was dominant through the All-Star break in 2025, as he had an 3.02 earned run average, 30.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate at that time. But he struggled down the stretch and went on the IL twice, first due to shoulder inflammation and then an ankle impingement. His results suffered and he finished the year with a 4.17 ERA.

The Nats are getting interest in Gore this offseason but could perhaps wait until the upcoming trade deadline if they don’t get offers to their liking. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.7MM next year, with another arbitration control beyond that. The Nats have very little on their books and don’t need to move him for financial reasons. If the Jays want to circle back to Gore, they might have to put a notable prospect package on the table.

The situation with Ryan is somewhat analogous. He is also two years away from the open market, with a projected $5.8MM salary next year. He has been a pretty consistently above average pitcher in his career. In his 641 1/3 innings, he has a 3.79 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate.

The Twins seemed to kick off a rebuild or retool or reset or whatever at the deadline. They traded a number of relievers, including Louis Varland to the Jays, and sent Carlos Correa back to Houston. Coming into this offseason, many expected Ryan and other Twins to be on the trade block but Minnesota’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has downplayed the idea that he needs to continue subtracting from the roster.

If the Jays can’t find solutions on the trade market, they could sign another free agent. Nicholson-Smith reports that King “could be” of interest. Though the Jays wouldn’t sacrifice prospects directly, they would still be hurting their farm system. King rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres and is therefore tied to the associated penalties. Since the Jays paid the competitive balance tax in 2025, they would have to forfeit two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool space. Cease also rejected a QO from the Padres, so the Jays have already paid that price. If they were to end up with Cease and King, that would mean giving up a total of four draft picks and $2MM from their bonus pool.

It’s unclear if the Jays would be willing to go down that road. It presumably depends on what kind of financial price they would have to pay to sign King. He seemed on track for a nine-figure deal before injuries hampered him in 2025. MLBTR predicted him for a four-year, $80MM deal but it’s possible King looks for a shorter deal with opt-outs, so that he can return to free agency with a healthier platform season.

He had a really strong run from the second half of 2023 through the beginning of 2025. With the Yankees in 2023, he was blocked and stuck in a relief role. As the Yanks were playing out a lost season two years ago, they let King take a rotation job. He performed well and was flipped to the Padres prior to 2024, which eventually became his best season. From August 24th of 2023 through May 18th of 2025, he tossed 267 2/3 innings with a 2.72 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. FanGraphs had him seventh among pitchers in the majors in wins above replacement for that span, behind only Tarik Skubal, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and Cease.

The latter months of 2025 were marred by injury, however. A nerve injury in his shoulder put him on the shelf for several months. He came off the IL in August but left knee inflammation sent him right back there. He returned in September and wasn’t amazing, allowing ten earned runs in his final 15 2/3 innings. The Padres gave the Game Three start in the Wild Card round to Yu Darvish, who was 39 years old and battling elbow problems which would require surgery a month later, instead of King.

It all makes King one of the more interesting free agents of the offseason. He was a borderline ace for a while there but also has only one big league season with more than 15 starts. Teams likely have varying opinions on what they expect from him going forward.

As for Ponce, he’s also a wild card, but for different reasons. His MLB track record is small but he’s been pitching well overseas. He just wrapped up a season in which he tossed 180 2/3 innings for the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization with a 1.89 ERA. His 252 strikeouts were a single-season KBO record. He was named the league MVP for his dominant season but remains unproven in North American ball. Regardless, it has been reported that he could earn $30MM to $40MM on a three-year deal.

Time will tell how aggressively the Jays go after another rotation upgrade. They still have needs elsewhere, including the back of the bullpen. Bringing in an impact bat, such as Kyle Tucker or reuniting with Bo Bichette, seems to be on the to-do list as well. RosterResource projects the Jays for a $263MM payroll and $272MM competitive balance tax figure next year. Those numbers were $258MM and $283MM at the end of 2025. It’s unclear how much farther they can push things but perhaps their deep playoff run in 2025 has created some extra spending capacity in 2026.

Photo courtesy of Matt Krohn, Imagn Images

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