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Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 3:21pm CDT

The departure of Justin Upton from the free agent market leaves the spotlight squarely on fellow star outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. We recently heard of interest from as many as ten teams and the possibility of a fairly short signing timeline. And there’s been some chatter today as his market begins to take greater form.

Here’s the latest:

  • Marlins president David Samson tells reporters, including Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that his team has no interest in signing Cespedes (Twitter link). Samson cited the team’s already crowded outfield picture as a reason for not pursuing the slugger.

Earlier Updates

  • The Marlins “have discussed pursuing” the star Cuban on some kind of “short-term deal,” Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But he says that it’s hard to see the club being in the lead for his services, and it’s also hard to disagree with that assessment. For such a move to come together, Rosenthal suggests, Miami would likely need to line up a deal involving center fielder Marcell Ozuna. (Presumably, Christian Yelich would slide to center.)
  • Rosenthal also tweets that the Nationals are indeed interested in Cespedes, too — but only if his asking price comes down. We heard mention earlier today (via BobNightengale of USA Today, on Twitter) that both the Nats and the Astros had some discussions on Upton and might also be involved on Cespedes. It’s a bit of a stretch to imagine the Nats adding Cespedes, at least without making another move, though Washington is perhaps better able to take on his salary obligations than are other organizations with rumored interest. From a roster perspective, the team could in theory demote or trade Michael Taylor, put Ben Revere in a timeshare with Jayson Werth, and utilize Bryce Harper and/or Cespedes in center when Revere isn’t in the lineup.
  • The Braves are yet another N.L. East club with continued amenability to a short-term pact with the star outfielder, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets. As with the other teams, a trade — probably involving Nick Markakis or Ender Inciarte — could conceivably go along with a signing scenario. But O’Brien’s cautionary words seem worth heeding: “Don’t hold your breath.”
  • We touched upon where things stand with the incumbent Mets this morning, though we haven’t heard of any recent movement on the team’s stance. (No word from the Phillies, alas.) Of course, it’s certainly plausible to imagine teams from other divisions remaining involved or joining the hunt.
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Dodgers To Sign Joe Blanton

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 2:35pm CDT

The Dodgers have struck a one-year deal with righty Joe Blanton, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He’ll earn a guaranteed $4MM in the agreement, per the report.

Blanton’s new deal includes some incentives as well, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports adds on Twitter. He stands to earn $250K bonuses at the fifty and sixty-inning threshold, and another $500K if he can make it to seventy.

The 35-year-old Blanton had long been a durable, back-of-the-rotation starter. But his career was at risk of stalling out after a string of rough seasons; indeed, it seemed at one point he might be retiring and he never pitched in the majors in 2014.

2015 proved a revelation for the veteran hurler, though, as he put up a sparkling campaign while working primarily from the pen for the first time in his career. He was good for the Royals and even better after being acquired off of the waiver wire by the Pirates. All told, Blanton spun 76 frames of 2.84 ERA pitching with 9.4 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 to go with a 48.6% groundball rate.

Los Angeles intends to utilize Blanton in the pen, of course, with Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times suggesting (Twitter link) that he may function as a long man. As Hernandez notes, it makes particular sense to have an effective, multi-inning righty given the large number of southpaws in the Dodgers’ rotation.

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Pirates Claim A.J. Schugel

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 2:31pm CDT

The Pirates have claimed righty A.J. Schugel off waivers from the Mariners, Pittsburgh announced. A corresponding move was not announced.

Schugel has found himself bouncing around the wire this winter. First, he was bumped from the Diamondbacks’ roster to make way for Zack Greinke. Seattle claimed him but set him loose to add Joe Wieland. And now he’s landed in Pittsburgh.

The 26-year-old threw 115 1/3 innings of 4.84 ERA pitching with 6.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in his second attempt at Triple-A last year. He did earn his first brief call-up to the majors, though, and has more success in the lower levels of the minors in prior seasons.

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2016 at 2:09pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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Reactions To And Effects Of The Justin Upton Deal

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 11:51am CDT

Last night’s news that the Tigers had landed Justin Upton surprised some, who felt that his market may have dried up. But while pitching was first in the queue this winter, we’ve seen a steady stream of position player signings at or near expectations ever since we hit 2016.

With the agreement set to be announced tomorrow after a physical, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link), here are some reactions to and ramifications of the move:

  • Both the Nationals and Astros had expressed interest in Upton, and “may” look instead at top remaining free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. Neither team looks in need of a player at that position, of course, but both are in position to be opportunistic. (Houston has been fairly quiet after a bold trade deadline, while Washington still appears to be about $30MM shy of its 2015 payroll after several moves.)
  • The Braves also had conversations with Upton, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, but the club was only discussing a six-year deal at a “significantly lower average annual value” than Upton’s new contract provides. GM John Coppolella acknowledged the chats, adding that his club will “remain both opportunistic and disciplined.”
  • Tigers owner Mike Ilitch was “absolutely ready” to sign Chris Davis, tweets Jon Heyman, but GM Al Avila talked him out of taking that route. From where I stand, that seems wise; unless Detroit was convinced that Davis could play the corner outfield on a regular basis for at least another year or two, it’s hard to see how he’d fit.
  • Once the decision was made to focus on Upton, Avila and skipper Brad Ausmus went to Phoenix and negotiated with Upton over the weekend, Nightengale reports. Per the report, the White Sox, Rangers, and Astros were other key teams in the hunt for Upton.
  • A source with knowledge of the Astros’ side of things tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the interest was never very “serious.” It does not appear that the ’Stros talked about much more than a three-year scenario. (While it isn’t clear what kind of ideas might have been batted around, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has written about the plausibility of an opt-out-driven, high-AAV, multi-year pillow contract concept.)
  • Ilitch’s latest big move proves that he’s the “most munificent owner in professional sports,” Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports argues. Certainly, he’s proven willing on plenty of occasions to plunk down the cash needed to arm his ballclub, this time cracking the luxury tax ceiling to add Upton. (They’ve done so previously on at least one occasion.)
  • From my perspective, it seems that Detroit got a nice price on a prime-aged free agent. The price comes in well below our expectations here at MLBTR, and even further below what Upton might have commanded with a bigger platform year. It may or may not be reasonable to hope that he has some growth remaining as a player, but even the current package makes for a solid investment given his age. As always, there’s risk. But as major win-now, open-market moves go, it’s hard to do much better.
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The Remaining Market For Outfielders

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 10:54am CDT

We looked yesterday to see what was left on the open market in terms of starting pitching, and today we’ll turn our attention to the outfield grass. The pool of outfielders just lost a top player in Justin Upton, but it’s still flush with talent. And as the Upton signing shows, where there’s ability, there’s often money to chase it.

Clubs looking for upgrades, complements, or depth can draw from a group of free agents that still includes the following names:

Best Available

  • Yoenis Cespedes — There’s not much left to say at this point. With Upton and Chris Davis off the market, Cespedes is the only remaining free agent who warranted a nine-figure prediction entering the winter.
  • Dexter Fowler — Something of a forgotten man, it remains to be seen how much the qualifying offer will tell on Fowler’s ultimate earning level. He remains a steady, high-quality option who still has plenty of reasonable landing spots.

Bounceback Candidates

  • Austin Jackson — We haven’t heard much chatter on AJax, but he’s an interesting buy-low option — particularly since he can play center field.
  • Steve Pearce — Despite a relatively tough 2015, Pearce’s huge 2014 and his relatively flexible glove make him an intriguing player.

Platoon/Bench Options (Age 31 or Below)

  • Domonic Brown — The former top prospect will be looking for opportunity, first and foremost; a non-contender could take a shot on his upside. It doesn’t hurt that he has another year of arb control remaining.
  • Matt Joyce — Last year was a disaster, but he was a steady offensive producer for years before.
  • David Lough — With an excellent glove, a return to his near-average offensive lines of 2013-14 would make Lough a nice reserve outfielder.
  • Travis Snider — He’s still quite young, and has had his moments, but will probably be forced to earn his next chance after a down 2015.
  • Drew Stubbs — Having a center-field-capable glove goes a long way, but Stubbs has never consistently produced at the plate.
  • Delmon Young — Having a league-average-or-better bat goes a long way, but Young doesn’t play the field well and didn’t hit last year for Baltimore.

Platoon/Bench Options (Age 32+)

  • Marlon Byrd — He still has pop in the bat at 38 years of age and should draw plenty of interest, whether as a second-division semi-regular or a useful bench bat for a contender.
  • David DeJesus — While he ended last year with little playing time and even less production for the Angels, DeJesus still looked like a capable-enough reserve outfielder for most of the year with the Rays.
  • Chris Denorfia — He’s now two years removed from above-average offensive production, but teams will still have interest.
  • Jeff Francoeur — After a solid late-year run, Francoeur could land his first guaranteed deal in some time.
  • Jonny Gomes — The overall line wasn’t great, but Gomes still had above-average numbers against lefties last year.
  • David Murphy — The Halos preferred Murphy to DeJesus down the stretch last year, but he hasn’t exactly set the world afire in recent campaigns.
  • Ryan Raburn — Just … read this.
  • Alex Rios — The Royals gave him pretty significant money last year, but he ended with -1.1 rWAR and will need to bounce back in 2016.
  • Skip Schumaker — He’s more a utilityman than a pure outfield option given the light bat.
  • Grady Sizemore — There’s no longer hope for a return to stardom, but Sizemore quietly had a solid run late with Tampa Bay.
  • Will Venable — As a left-handed bat that can still play center, he’ll have plenty of appeal.
  • Shane Victorino — Could a return to health — and switch-hitting — spur a late-career renaissance?
  • Rickie Weeks — Things didn’t go well last year after a bounceback 2014, so he’ll be searching for another shot in ’16.

International

  • Alexei Bell — The veteran is not yet a free agent, but will surely be hoping for a chance to play at the major league level in the near term.
  • Guillermo Heredia — At 24 years of age, he could be near major league readiness, though he isn’t the most highly-regarded prospect from Cuba.
  • Randy Arozarena — He’s still just twenty, but is an intriguing name to watch.
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Marlins Sign Wei-Yin Chen

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 9:51am CDT

The Marlins have officially agreed to a deal with free agent lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He’ll reportedly receive a five-year, $80MM guarantee — just as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted before the offseason — but the deal negotiated between the Miami front office and the Boras Corporation is much more complicated than that.

First and foremost, while Chen won’t gain no-trade protection, the contract comes with an opt-out opportunity for the 30-year-old Chen after 2017. And he’ll receive just $28MM of the guaranteed money in the first two years of the deal ($8MM signing bonus, $6MM salary in 2016, and $14MM for 2017). That would mean the team could get two prime years of the southpaw at a very appealing rate if he opts out, though the backside of the deal could turn ugly if Chen falters. (It’s worth noting, too, that the club could pick up a draft pick via a qualifying offer in an opt-out scenario.)

In the event that Chen remains in Miami, he could pick up a vesting/player option for a sixth season by logging 180 innings in the prior campaign or 360 frames over the two preceding years. That’s a somewhat unusual provision. Presumably, Chen would gain the right to choose between a one-year guarantee or free agency if he hits the innings tally. That option could bring the deal’s total value to $96MM.

As Dierkes explained at length in the above-linked post, Chen earned that contract by posting a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings in the last two seasons. He rarely issues free passes, dominates lefties, and brings a strong low-to-mid-nineties fastball. It’s important to note, too, that Chen has missed only minimal time and has not had any reported arm issues.

Of course, there’s more to it than that, and there are some indications that the lefty may have benefited from some good fortune (including playing in front of a stellar defensive unit in Baltimore). He’s only carried a 3.91 SIERA since the start of 2014, isn’t a major strikeout or groundball pitcher, and has been susceptible to the long ball. And Chen hasn’t exactly chewed up innings; despite being ready almost every fifth day, he doesn’t tend to go deep into games.

With the move, Miami has significantly upgraded a rotation that long seemed in need of a quality arm. The team lost Henderson Alvarez to free agency after non-tendering him, and that left the club with some uncertainty behind ace Jose Fernandez. Chen will join Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler as near-locks for the staff, with Edwin Jackson now joining in-house options such as Adam Conley, Brad Hand, David Phelps, Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena, and Kendry Flores. (Some of those names, of course, could well end up in the pen.)

As Chen turned down a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, he’ll cost the Marlins their top non-protected pick, which will come in the second round. The club’s first selection, at seventh overall, is protected. The Orioles, meanwhile, will stand to pick up a compensation pick for losing Chen.

It’s easy to forget that the Marlins were viewed by many as a legitimate contender heading into the 2015 season. A lot has changed since then, certainly, but the team’s young core still features a lot of talent. And while Chen himself has faced his share of questions, there’s no denying that he upgrades the Miami staff.

Jon Heyman reported a deal was close on Twitter. Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweeted that a deal was in place. Miami’s ongoing negotiations were reported on Twitter by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the guaranteed money on Twitter. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (Twitter links), Heyman (links to Twitter), and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter) had other key contract provisions.

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Miami Marlins Newsstand Transactions Wei-Yin Chen

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Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Mets, Davis, Nathan

By Jeff Todd | January 19, 2016 at 8:21am CDT

ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the Mets should not commit to Yoenis Cespedes, as they’d be better served holding onto the remaining resources they have in order to see what needs might arise during the season (ESPN Insider subscription required). Barring a sudden increase in payroll from ownership, he says, rashly pursuing Cespedes could prevent the team from addressing a more significant area this coming summer. But public pressure is growing for New York to make a play for the team’s 2015 trade-deadline star, he notes.

More on the market …

  • John Harper of the New York Daily News feels that the Justin Upton signing further adds to the pressure on the Mets, though he also adds that the $132.75MM guarantee probably indicates that Upton had significant interest from multiple teams. If that’s the case, some of those clubs could very well turn their attention to Cespedes. If Cespedes lands a comparable or greater deal, Harper points out, it will explain why the Mets failed to bring him back into the fold. However, if he signs for three or four years elsewhere, Harper believes it’ll be hard for the Mets to justify their lack of spending. As we’ve discussed often here at MLBTR, though, short-term or even mid-range scenarios such as Harper describes continue to appear unlikely for Cespedes, who — like Upton — still figures to find a large and lengthy guarantee despite his extended wait on the market.
  • When evaluating baseball contracts, the concept of deferred money is both rightly referenced and often misunderstood. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides good perspective on the recent Chris Davis deal, explaining that the total value of his contract can’t just be discounted all the way to one, lump-sum present value — at least, that is, unless we treat every other contract the same way. (Point being: we typically add up future payouts in multi-year deals without discounting their value, even though the same rationale applies to all money owed in the future, whether or not “deferred.”) Cameron attempts to put the Davis deal on roughly the same footing as a more typically structured deal that pays out annual salaries in the year they are earned, concluding that the $161MM guarantee is probably best thought of as a $148MM pact.
  • Veteran reliever Joe Nathan is getting bites from around ten teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Nathan is looking to come back from Tommy John surgery at 41 years of age. While he’s not likely to be signed with any grand expectations, and struggled in his most recent run with the Tigers, it’s easy to see why teams would be willing to give him a shot given that he remained productive well in his late thirties.
  • Free agency is typically the most straightforward way to address a need, and Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth looks at what teams have done to address the biggest problem areas around the league from the 2015 season.
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Tigers Nearing Six-Year Deal With Justin Upton

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2016 at 8:34pm CDT

8:34pm: The two sides are closing in on an agreement, according to Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Rosenthal adds that it’ll be a six-year deal, if finalized.

8:29pm: The Tigers are in discussions with free agent outfielder Justin Upton, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Things have been relatively quiet on the Upton front as of late, with more focus being placed on fellow corner outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, but Detroit does stand out as a logical landing spot for a top-tier outfielder.

As it stands, the Tigers figure to use a combination of Anthony Gose and Cameron Maybin in left field and center field, though the addition of Upton could theoretically push those two into a platoon or shift Gose into fourth outfielder territory. Detroit general manager Al Avila has said previously that he considers his heavy lifting this winter to be complete and finds a significant outfield addition unlikely, but owner Mike Ilitch could potentially go over his GM’s head in order to bring in a high-profile outfield addition. Upton, who has slashed .262/.344/.470 and averaged 27 homers per year across the past three seasons would certainly fit the bill.

It remains unclear how serious talks between the two sides are at present, and adding another hefty contract to the books with Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann all signed through 2019, plus Victor Martinez through 2018 and Ian Kinsler and Anibal Sanchez through 2017 would be risky. However, Ilitch has long been one of the most aggressive owners in terms of free-agent spending and candidly stated earlier this offseason (after the Zimmermann signing) that he “didn’t care” about spending money.

Signing Upton, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres in November, would cost the Tigers a draft pick. However, Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, and the team already forfeited its second-round pick to sign Zimmermann, meaning that the cost to sign Upton for Detroit would be “only” a third-round pick — a considerably lighter cost than many other potential Upton suitors would face.

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AL West Notes: Sucre, Cespedes, Rangers’ Rotation

By Steve Adams | January 18, 2016 at 7:26pm CDT

Mariners catcher Jesus Sucre suffered a fractured fibula this weekend playing in the Venezuelan Winter League, the Mariners confirmed to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. (Venezuelan journalist Marcos Grunfeld first reported the injury.) The 27-year-old Sucre received a career-high 142 plate appearances last season, serving as a backup catcher in Seattle. The offseason additions of Chris Iannetta and Steve Clevenger make it unlikely that Sucre would’ve broken camp with the Mariners, but the fact that he may miss the beginning of Spring Training, per Dutton, clouds his role with the club even further. Sucre is a lifetime .178/.206/.229 hitter in 235 plate appearances at the Major League level. While his bat is light, Sucre has caught 40 percent of potential base-stealers in his big league career and rated as a well above-average pitch framer in 2015.

Here’s more from the AL West…

  • Despite a number of executives recently speculating to MLB Network’s Peter Gammons that the Astros could be a landing spot for Yoenis Cespedes, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle spoke to a source that made a Cespedes/Houston match unlikely. A separate source confirmed to Drellich that Cespedes is still seeking a very lucrative long-term deal, and as he notes, there’s no precedent of current Astros ownership green-lighting a $100MM+ contract. Drellich hears that the Astros, for instance, never pursued Chris Davis despite the possible need of a first baseman. GM Jeff Luhnow wouldn’t rule out further moves for his club this offseason, but he also didn’t sound to be aggressively seeking any upgrades. “We’re monitoring the players that are available and trying to figure out if there’s a fit, and when I say available, I don’t mean only via free agency. There’s discussions with other teams about trade possibilities as well.”
  • If the Rangers make another move to add to their rotation, it’d likely be a depth piece, GM Jon Daniels told reporters, including Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, earlier today. “If we do anything else where the rotation is concerned, it would be more along the lines of depth,” said Daniels. “There have been physical issues with some of our guys, and we’re cognizant of that.” As Fraley notes, Texas has four locks for the rotation in the form of Cole Hamels, Derek Holland, Martin Perez and the recently re-signed Colby Lewis. Ace Yu Darvish won’t be back until mid-May, at the earliest, Fraley writes, so the Rangers could pursue a possible piece to fill his rotation spot until then. Of course, Texas also has Chi Chi Gonzalez and Nick Martinez as depth options on the 40-man roster, in addition to non-roster invitees A.J. Griffin and Cesar Ramos (who will be stretched from reliever to starter this spring, the club revealed when announcing his signing).
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