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Exploring January Free Agent Signings

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The month of January isn’t typically a big month for free agent signings, but this year, it might almost have to be. An uncharacteristic number of big-name free agents are still available, including Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon, Ian Desmond, Wei-Yin Chen, Dexter Fowler, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo and Howie Kendrick, among others, remain available. By this point in the year, key free agents have usually already signed, but this winter, many teams will be doing their offseason shopping well after Christmas.

Too see the difference between this year and previous winters, here’s a look at key January transactions from the last five seasons, via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker. As we’ll see, January frequently contains a bit of drama, and top free agents do sometimes wait to sign. None of the last five offseasons have seen the kind of free agent movement that seems likely in the coming weeks, however.

  • 2015: The only significant free agent move in January was indeed a big one: the Nationals’ agreement with Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210MM deal on the 19th. Beyond that, the largest deal was the Astros’ $8MM pact with Colby Rasmus. James Shields ($75MM) and Francisco Rodriguez ($13MM) were the only key free agents who signed in February.
  • 2014: This was the recent offseason with the most post-New Year’s activity. The Yankees signed Masahiro Tanaka to a $155MM contract in late January, and the Brewers got Matt Garza on a four-year, $50MM deal at around the same time. In addition, James Loney agreed to a three-year, $21MM pact with the Rays, who also signed Grant Balfour for two years and $12MM. A number of key free agent signings (Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, A.J. Burnett, Fernando Rodney, Nelson Cruz) were delayed until February, while Ervin Santana (whose market, like that of Cruz, was depressed by the qualifying offer) did not sign until March. Two other qualifying offer free agents, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, did not sign until after the season had begun.
  • 2013: Nick Swisher and Edwin Jackson both signed right after New Year’s, each getting four-year deals in excess of $50MM. Later that month, Rafael Soriano and Adam LaRoche each got two-year deals in the $20MM-$30MM range. Two free agents with qualifying offers attached, Michael Bourn and Kyle Lohse, signed later.
  • 2012: The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a huge nine-year, $214MM contract in late January. The other key free agent deals that month were those of Coco Crisp and Hiroki Kuroda, both of them comparatively minimal in value. In early February, Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11MM deal with the Nationals.
  • 2011: Soon after the new year, Adrian Beltre agreed to a five-year, $80MM deal with Texas. Later in the month, Soriano got three years and $35MM from the Yankees. The only significant February signing was Vladimir Guerrero’s one-year, $8MM deal with the Orioles.

An obvious common denominator with many of these signings was that a number of key players were represented by Scott Boras, including Scherzer, Fielder, Beltre, Bourn, Jackson, Lohse, Soriano, Rodriguez, Drew and Morales. As is widely known, Boras operates on his own timeline, and his clients’ frequent late signings reflect that. For this year, that’s worth keeping in mind for Davis, Chen and Kennedy.

The other obvious common denominator is the qualifying offer, which had obvious effects on free agents like Bourn, Lohse, Santana, Cruz, Drew and Morales. The qualifying offer could end up having a significant effect on the markets of a few current free agents, like Kennedy.

Still, those two factors do not explain the logjam of free agents currently on the market. Most of them (Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, Desmond and so on) are not Boras clients. And many free agents who might have been most affected by the qualifying offer (Marco Estrada, Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) either already signed or accepted their QOs.

In any case, this year’s free agent market figures to be considerably busier in January (or even later) than it typically is. In a recent column, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal explored reasons why the market has been so slow. Some usual big spenders, like the Yankees and Angels, have been relatively quiet on the free agent market. In addition, the trade market has perhaps been a factor — recent deals involving Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Andrelton Simmons, Shelby Miller and Ken Giles, for example, have shown that the trade market has had plenty of good talent available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd implied last month, too, the signing of one of the many numerous bats available via free agency could lead to a run on the rest. In the meantime, though, a number of stars still need homes, so expect plenty of activity in the coming month.

Quick Hits: Mets, Orioles, Indians

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If the Mets are to sustain the success they enjoyed in 2015 in future seasons, they’ll need to depend on their farm system to continue churning out talent, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post writes. The Mets have added key players to their active roster in each of the past several years, including Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Michael Conforto last season. (They also used a number of prospects to help them acquire key big-league talent down the stretch in 2015, most notably Michael Fulmer in the Yoenis Cespedes trade.) They’ll continue to lean on a farm system that, after the graduations of a number of top pitching talents, is heavy on position players like Gavin Cecchini, Dilson Herrera and Brandon Nimmo. Here’s more from throughout the game.

  • The list of key position players who remain unsigned (Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Chris Davis) raises questions about whether any of them could sign for significantly less or for significantly fewer years than anticipated, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski writes. It remains unclear whether Davis and the Orioles could revisit their contract discussions — as ESPN’s Buster Olney reported last week, the O’s rescinded their $150MM offer to Davis, and while there could be more talks between the two sides, some within the organization might feel that they don’t need to offer so much again if other teams aren’t entering the bidding at $150MM or more.
  • The Indians ultimately signed Mike Napoli rather than free agent slugger Pedro Alvarez because Napoli is a right-handed hitter and because he improved their defense, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. Napoli, a solid defensive first baseman, allowed the Indians to move Carlos Santana to DH. Alvarez, a huge defensive liability last year in Pittsburgh, might well have had to play DH himself.

Week In Review: 12/26/15 – 1/1/16

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As we say goodbye to 2015 here at MLBTR, here’s a look back at the past week.

Key Moves

Signings / Re-signings

Designated For Assignment

Key Minor League Signings

Free Agent Faceoff: Yovani Gallardo vs. Ian Kennedy

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There’s been plenty of action on the free agent market for starters, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some big earners still out there. Lefty Wei-Yin Chen rates as the best remaining option, in the estimation of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, and he’s said to be chasing a $100MM contract.

Whether or not he gets there, that’s probably not even a reasonable ask for the next two names on the list. But both of them — Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo — have some contractual upside of their own.

We’ve seen pitchers in this general range score deals in the four-year, $50MM range in recent years, sometimes quite late in the offseason. (In the winter of 2013-14, Matt Garza signed in late January, while Ubaldo Jimenez waited until the middle of February.) Of course, that same year, Ervin Santana waited even longer and ended up settling for a one-year deal at the qualifying offer value (which was, at the time, $14.1MM).

For teams looking to add sturdy, mid-rotation arms, there really aren’t any other options available. The trade market remains a plausible option, to be sure, but there really aren’t any obvious candidates begging for a taker that would fit the mold of these two right-handers.

When Dierkes took stock at the outset of the market, he ranked Kennedy and Gallardo back-to-back (as the 19th and 20th-best players available) and valued both at identical rates: four years and $52MM. Interestingly, both present rather different profiles.

Kennedy, who just turned 31, has posted career-best strikeout numbers over the past two years (9.3 K/9) while holding his walks to a reasonable level (3.0 BB/9), leading both SIERA and xFIP to value him as a mid-3.00 ERA-equivalent contributor. He’s averaged 196 innings annually dating back to 2010, an impressive record of durability, while contributing a useful (albeit unexciting) 3.88 ERA.

In spite of all those positives, though, Kennedy has finished three of the past four seasons with an ERA north of 4.00. With his fastball velocity sitting above his career average and a double-digit swinging strike rate, it’s easy to attribute the poor run prevention to bad luck. Really, though, it all just poses a dilemma: is Kennedy’s long ball susceptibility — last year, Kennedy posted a MLB-high 1.66 HR/9 to go with the second-highest (17.2%) HR/FB rate — the product of poor fortune or poor pitching?

Gallardo, who’s about to reach 30 years of age, has more or less matched Kennedy in terms of annual innings (194 since 2010) while outperforming him in bottom-line results (3.66 ERA). Indeed, if we focus just on the last two years, it’s no contest in the earned run department, as Gallardo has worked to a sub-3.50 mark.

But things don’t look so great when you dig a bit deeper, as he’s gone from a modern-Kennedy-esque K:BB ratio (9.0 K/9 vs. 3.1 BB/9 in 2011-12) to a career-worst ratio of 5.9 strikeouts and 3.3 free passes per nine. Gallardo has continued to generate grounders on nearly half of the balls put in play against him, but his velocity and swinging strike rates have both tailed off noticeably. Things came to a head last year, as every major ERA estimator put him at 4.00 or greater, with SIERA calling him a 4.59 ERA-equivalent performer.

Really, this comparison is most interesting because both Kennedy and Gallardo have avoided any major injuries in recent seasons, are only about a year apart in age, and have generally landed in the same range in terms of how many outs they can get before handing things off to the pen. From there, it’s a question of how you view recent results, the relationship of peripherals to runs allowed, and luck.

So, MLBTR readers, which pitcher would you rather your team sign?

West Notes: Dodgers, Prospects, Closers, A’s

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Let’s take a look in at the latest from the game’s western divisions:

  • The Dodgers’ front office has “underwhelmed” since taking command after the 2014 season, argues Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. In particular, he says, the team erred this offseason when it failed to meet the pre-offseason “expectations” that it would “re-sign Zack Greinke and lure David Price to L.A. with an astronomical offer, creating a rotation for the ages.” The FOX Sports reporter goes on to argue that letting Greinke go to the division-rival Diamondbacks — who swooped in at the last minute with an astronomical contract offer — sapped Los Angeles not only of half of its outstanding top-of-the-rotation duo but also the “swagger of outspending any team in the industry, on any player, whenever it fancied them.”
  • With all due respect to Morosi, it seems rather odd to suggest there was ever any realistic likelihood of one club adding both of those top starters. And, frankly, I don’t think I’m alone in disagreeing with his assessment that it would have been wise to meet or exceed Arizona’s stunning offer to the 32-year-old Greinke, even for a team with L.A.’s deep pockets. After all, getting the best player by dangling the most money is easy enough to do; the real trick is knowing when to pull out of the bidding. Whether or not the D’Backs’ investment will pay off remains to be seen, but it is laden with risk, and no team operates without financial limitations. It bears noting, too, that it’s a bit premature to place final judgment on the roster construction efforts of the Friedman administration — or, for that matter, most other teams around the league — with such a large portion of the offseason business still left to be transacted. The proof will be in the pennants, but in assessing the Dodgers front office’s efforts to date, it’s worth remembering that the organization still has financial flexibility and extremely valuable young players to work with (both now and over the course of the season).
  • As always, prospects make for powerful trade currency, and J.J. Cooper of Baseball America rates the youngsters that were dealt over the last couple of months. Teams from the game’s western divisions featured heavily. They combined to enrich the Braves’ system with the three top names on the list (Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair, from the Diamondbacks, and Sean Newcomb, from the Angels). The Padres got two of the next three youngsters in Cooper’s ranking from the Red Sox in Javier Guerra and Manuel Margot. And there were others, too, as the Astros sent Mark Appel to the Phillies and four of the players involved in the three-team Todd Frazier deal either went to (Jose Peraza) or from (Frankie Montas, Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson) the Dodgers.
  • Of course, a good portion of the players just listed featured in the winter’s trade activity for closers, a topic recently taken up by BA’s John Manuel. While Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles drew returns featuring some of those well-regarded young players, of course, Aroldis Chapman ended up bringing a much less hyped return due to the stunning domestic violence allegations that emerged. (It’s worth remembering, in assessing the Dodgers’ efforts to date, that they were lined up to add the top-shelf reliever before the controversy erupted.) Manuel goes on to discuss the interesting question of the difficulty of rating and valuing premium relief prospects.
  • The Athletics are in a nice position to roll the dice on an expensive but potentially undervalued asset this winter, per a recent SB Nation/Athletics Nation blog post, but it’s not clear whether there’s a worthwhile investment on the market. Previously, Oakland hit it big by landing Yoenis Cespedes for just $36MM over four years before the 2012 campaign. I certainly agree that there don’t appear to be any players with quite that profile, but it does seem plausible to think — and this is all my speculation — that the A’s could line up to bail out someone like Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Austin Jackson, or Ian Kennedy, should their markets collapse, or make an upside play for Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra.

 

International Notes: Kim, Maeda, Rodriguez, Sierra

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New Orioles outfielder Hyun-soo Kim told reporters at a press conference in Seoul, South Korea that he wants to finish his career in the Major Leagues, as Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap News writes. “I want to do well and retire in the U.S. before coming back to South Korea,” Kim said to the media. “If I return here before then, it would mean I’m no longer desirable to U.S. teams. I’d consider myself a loser if I take a U-turn to the Korean baseball league.” It’s understandable that Kim would set lofty expectations for himself after dominating the KBO over the past decade. In 10 professional seasons, Kim is a .318/.408/.488 hitter, and the 27-year-old enjoyed arguably his best season in 2015 when he belted a career-best 28 homers with the second-highest OPS (.979) of his career. Kim said he most looks forward to facing David Price — a pitcher he greatly respects — and is excited for the challenge of facing greater velocity throughout the league in American ball.

Here are a few more notes on the international market…

  • Eric Longenhagen breaks down a number of international players in an excellent piece for ESPN (Insider subscription required and recommended), including right-hander Kenta Maeda, who reportedly reached an agreement with the Dodgers on New Year’s Eve. Per Longenhagen, Maeda has an 87-92 mph fastball that can scrape a bit higher on the radar gun at times, though as he notes, we’re unlikely to see more velocity out of Maeda now that he’s pitching every fifth day instead of once a week. Maeda also features a slider, changeup, cutter and curveball, with the former two pitches being above-average to plus and the latter two being fringe offerings at best. Longenhagen opines that Maeda has a fifth starter’s arsenal that will play up to a No. 4 type of starter due to his control and pitch sequencing. He adds that while durability may be a factor — Maeda has 1500 pro innings under his belt at just 28 years of age — the Dodgers have quite a bit of rotation depth to make it through the upcoming season (even if several others arms are question marks themselves).
  • While Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez has not yet been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, he’s “poised to sign” with Cincinnati upon clearance, per Longenhagen. Rodriguez probably won’t sign until after July 2, so his bonus will count against Cincinnati’s 2016-17 pool rather than its 2015-16 pool. The 21-year-old Rodriguez is said by Longenhagen to be a premier defender with enough speed to wreak havoc on the bases but little pop in his bat. Longenhagen writes that he could profile as a regular due to his glove and speed, though probably one that hits near the bottom of the order.
  • Part of the reason for Yaisel Sierra’s recent showcase was that he’s yet to receive a good offer from teams, Longenhagen hears. He calls Sierra a “good-bodied, two-pitch 24-year-old,” noting that many clubs see him as a middle reliever but some feel he could develop into a No. 4 type of arm with more reps. The best fit for Sierra, in Longenhagen’s estimation, is a rebuilding team that can afford to make a strong offer and patiently try to develop the hard-throwing righty as a starter.

Latest On Marlins’ Rotation Search

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The Marlins still hope to add a starting pitcher to their rotation and have internally discussed some potential bargain options such as Doug Fister, Cliff Lee and Edwin Jackson, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Jackson adds a wrinkle to the Marlins’ reported attempt at acquiring Aroldis Chapman (before his trade to the Yankees), noting that the team had considered inserting Chapman into its rotation.

All three of the free agents listed by Jackson are probably in line for one-year deals. As a four-time All-Star and former Cy Young winner, the 37-year-old Lee comes with the highest ceiling but also quite a bit of risk after missing the 2015 season with a torn flexor tendon. He’s reportedly seeking a one-year deal with a winning team as he attempts to revive his career.

Fister was one of the game’s more underrated pitchers from 2011-14, when he posted a 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 in 750 2/3 innings with the Mariners, Tigers and Nationals. However, 2015 was a much different tale, as Fister’s average fastball velocity dipped from about 89 mph to 86 mph. The diminished heater undoubtedly contributed to what was the worst full season of Fister’s career; the 31-year-old (32 in February) logged a 4.60 ERA across 15 starts before losing his rotation spot and experiencing better results in the bullpen.

As for Jackson, he’s coming off a disappointing tenure with the Cubs. Signed to a four-year, $52MM contract prior to the 2013 season, Jackson posted a 5.58 ERA in 316 innings out of the Cubs’ rotation in his first two seasons in Chicago. In 2015, he quietly rebounded in the bullpen, pitching to a 3.07 ERA with 6.5 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 54 2/3 innings between the Cubs and Braves. It’s been quiet on the Jackson front this offseason, but he’ll presumably receive interest both as a reliever and as a starter following his solid bullpen work between Chicago and Atlanta. If he does prefer to reestablish himself as a starter — and at 32, there’s plenty of time for that — Miami seemingly wouldn’t be a bad place to take a shot. Marlins Park has been a pitcher-friendly environment since opening in 2012, although the Marlins are altering the dimensions this offseason, which could remove some of the pitchers’ advantage. Jackson would be a low-cost addition for any club that signed him, as he’s still owed $13MM from the Cubs this season, so he’d only cost a club the league minimum and a roster spot.

White Sox Only Interested In Three-Year Deal With Gordon, Cespedes

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The White Sox have interest in free agent outfielders Alex Gordon and Yoenis Cespedes, but only on a deal that would promise three years or less, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. That’s obviously a far shorter commitment than the veterans are looking for.

Cespedes has yet to be tied closely to any particular team despite coming off of a season in which he slashed .287/.337/.604 and hit 35 home runs. Most recently, we heard that the White Sox and Orioles were looking like the most landing spots. But Baltimore is said to have no interest in nearing the $140MM price tag that we predicted here at MLBTR at the start of the offseason. And it obviously doesn’t sound as if Chicago does, either.

As I explained in a profile of Cespedes and his free agent case, it was and still is difficult to peg a specific landing spot for the Cuban native. That’s true, in large part, because there are two other premium corner outfielders available in Gordon and Justin Upton, as well as another high-end power bat in Chris Davis.

As for Gordon, who we predicted to top $100MM over five years, it seemed at one point that he could come off the board before the holidays. It’s not immediately clear whether the delay is a good or bad sign for his earning capacity, but it’s certainly possible to imagine that he’s fielding interest from multiple teams. And then there’s the involvement of the Royals, the only team he’s ever played for. Gordon himself said recently that the Royals are still in play, despite reports that their most recent offer was not competitive.

The organizations I listed as possible Cespedes suitors still arguably look like strong possible fits for either player. That includes the Angels, Giants, Tigers, Cardinals, Orioles, and White Sox. But those teams, and possibly a few others, appear to be engaged in something of a staring contest with the players and agents across the table — to say nothing of the other teams that hold veteran trade assets.

That stand-off seems unlikely to be broken by any three-year arrangement at this stage of the offseason, though it is certainly possible to imagine such an offer holding some appeal. Dangling a sky-high AAV and opt-out sweetener may ultimately be competitive, but that’s probably only an option that these players would consider after exhausting the possibilities for a longer deal.

Astros Sign Eury Perez To Minors Deal

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The Astros have announced the signing of outfielder Eury Perez to a minor league pact. Houston also added righty Cesar Valdez and invited both to major league training camp this spring.

Perez, 25, received his first chance at extended big league action last year with the Braves. Over 133 plate appearances, he slashed .269/.331/.303 and contributed three stolen bases. He was non-tendered by Atlanta earlier this winter.

While he’s always been light on power, the center field-capable Perez has shown quite a bit of speed in the minors and owns a .307/.358/.402 batting line in 1,115 Triple-A plate appearances. He was once a fairly highly-regarded prospect with the Nationals and could still have some function in the majors if he can reach base enough.

The 30-year-old Valdez saw brief MLB action back in 2010, but has pitched exclusively overseas since 2012. His return to affiliated ball was likely driven by his 2015 performance in Mexico. Working for the Olmecas de Tobasco, Valdez threw 160 2/3 innings in 23 starts and racked up 9.0 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9.

The ’Stros also announced their non-roster spring camp invites, which include some notable names from the minor league system. Among them are recent draft picks Alex Bregman and Derek Fisher as well as prospects A.J. Reed, Tony Kemp, Colin Moran, and J.D. Davis.

Central Notes: Moore, Jaso, White Sox

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We took a look in at Kansas City’s potential pitching needs earlier today, and there are a few more notes from the game’s central divisions to share on a quiet New Year’s Day:

  • There’s a case to be made that Royals GM Dayton Moore qualifies as MLB’s most notable figure in 2015, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. While the publication gave that title to Bryce Harper, but the successful culmination of Moore’s efforts in Kansas City certain made for a notable story — particularly from a hot stove perspective.
  • New Pirates first baseman John Jaso said yesterday on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link) that he chose his new team in part due to the opportunity to play in the field. Most of the interest he saw was from American League clubs that would have utilized him as a DH, but he says he’s drawn by the challenge of being a quality defender at a new position.
  • While the White Sox have had “dialogue” with the top three free agent outfielders — that’d be Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon — there’s nothing close at present, Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently tweeted. That’s not particularly surprising to hear, in part because Chicago seems to be set up rather nicely to be an opportunistic buyer rather than focusing on getting a particular player at all costs.

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