Padres Interested In Re-Signing Jon Jay
The Padres are interested in retaining outfielder Jon Jay beyond this season and have engaged in preliminary discussions with him about a return, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The veteran is scheduled to reach free agency this fall.
Jay, 31, was in the midst of a productive campaign for San Diego before a wayward pitch fractured his forearm. Generally regarded as a solid defender in center, Jay also ran up a useful .296/.345/.407 slash with a then-league-leading 24 doubles over 291 plate appearances. He has been working his way back since hitting the DL in late June, and is expected to return in early or mid-September.
Prior to the injury, Jay seemed like a quality trade piece for the Friars. And there still seems to be at least an outside shot at a deal materializing over the next five days. (He could still be traded after the calendar flips to September, but an acquiring team would not be able to use him on its postseason roster.) This latest news, however, suggests that San Diego may instead keep Jay around — though he could certainly be dealt and then re-signed.
It’s not immediately clear whether the club is interested in keeping Jay from reaching the open market, or instead hopes to get a head start on free agent talks. Manager Andy Green suggested the latter, labeling it “an offseason discussion” to be had at year end. And Jay seems to be inclined to test the free agent waters, even if he sees a return to San Diego as a desirable possibility.
While Jay said it was “great” to be approached, he went on to explain that he’d likely need to weigh the alternatives. “Obviously, with free agency, you wait so long to get to this point as a player, you want to see what’s out there,” said Jay. “But at the same time, I feel very comfortable here. I do like it a lot here, so this is definitely something my wife and I will discuss when we’re making those decisions.”
As Lin well explains in the above-linked post, it is a bit surprising at first glance to learn of the Padres’ interest in retaining Jay. The organization has a fair number of untested but rather intriguing outfielders kicking around at or near the major league level, and doesn’t seem primed to contend in 2017. It seems, though, that Jay made quite an impression both on and off the field.
And while the injury was certainly a freak occurrence, it may limit his earning power somewhat and leave an opportunity for the team to realize some value if it does ultimately strike a deal. Though the overall free agent market is rather thin, there are a number of quality outfielders available, so it’ll be interesting to see how things develop with regard to Jay, who ought to draw fairly wide interest from a variety of teams.
Top 20 Trade Candidates: August Edition
It’s been a fairly quiet August in terms of trade activity, and only one member of the last iteration of this list, Jeff Francoeur, has been traded. However, some activations from the disabled list and hot performances and off-field incidents have altered the composition of our list.
- Kurt Suzuki, C, Twins: Suzuki somewhat surprisingly cleared waivers. He represents an offensive upgrade behind the plate over some teams’ starting catchers and certainly over the average backup catcher. His defense isn’t well-regarded, but the bat figures to be a nice perk for teams on the lookout for some improvement behind the dish. At $6MM this season ($1.2MM remaining), he’s affordable as well. Veteran backstops are popular August trade candidates — witness the recent deals for Carlos Ruiz and Dioner Navarro — so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Suzuki move as well.
- Boone Logan, LHP, Rockies: Lefties are hitting a pitiful .148/.211/.250 this year against Logan, who is in the final season of a three-year, $16.5MM pact. The 32-year-old hasn’t lived up to the deal overall, but he has saved his best season for last, logging a 3.11 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 2016. Nary a day has passed late in the month of August in any recent season in which there haven’t been clubs clamoring for left-handed relief help. With the Rockies sitting 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, it may be time to get something back from that largely ill-fated free agent signing.
- Peter Bourjos, OF, Phillies: Plenty of clubs could be on the lookout for a fourth outfielder before month’s end, and Bourjos’ speed and defensive reputation should make him an appealing candidate. His ridiculous stretch at the plate in June/July wasn’t sustainable, but he’s hitting .235/.316/.382 since coming off the DL earlier this month and .251/.293/.384 on the season overall. With a $2MM base salary, he won’t break any club’s budget.
- Nick Markakis, OF, Braves: Markakis cleared waivers over the weekend despite the torrid stretch he’s on at the plate. Since the All-Star break, the 32-year-old looks like he did in his peak years last decade, as he’s slashing .315/.383/.473 with four homers and 11 doubles. The $22MM he’s owed after this season allowed him to clear, but a club looking for corner outfield help could look into Markakis if Atlanta is willing to eat some cash (and they have been in trades prior).
- Brian McCann, C, Yankees: Gary Sanchez is announcing his arrival with authority, leaving it looking like McCann’s days with the Yankees could be numbered. An offseason trade might be more likely, but McCann has already cleared waivers and if the Yankees are willing to eat some of the $34MM remaining on his contract after this season, he could make an appealing upgrade for teams in need of a starting catcher.
- Yasiel Puig, OF, Dodgers: The Dodgers reportedly aren’t desperate to move Puig, but the fact that some reports indicate he won’t even be a part of the team’s September roster strengthen the argument that the organization has soured on him. Puig is an enormous talent whose performance has declined and who comes with clear off-field questions, but his on-field upside should lead some clubs to wonder if they could straighten him out.
- Derek Norris, C, Padres: An offseason trade of Norris, or even a non-tender, is more likely given his dismal season at the plate. The Padres have clear motivation to shed his contract, not only for financial purposes but also to get more at-bats for Christian Bethancourt and Austin Hedges. That’s been true for awhile, though, and Norris remains in San Diego.
- Melky Cabrera, OF, White Sox: As a solid switch-hitting bat with one reasonably priced year remaining on his deal beyond 2016 ($13MM), Cabrera should hold interest to teams looking for a boost in the lineup. He’s not a long-term piece for the Sox, though they’d probably need to replace him via trade or free agency this winter, so perhaps that alone is reason enough for them to hold on.
- Logan Morrison, 1B, Rays: Activated from the DL earlier this month, Morrison recovered from one of the worst starts to a season that I can remember and has quietly posted solid numbers at the plate since snapping that slump. The early season woes have his overall line looking unimpressive, but since the admittedly arbitrary cutoff date of May 16, LoMo is hitting .265/.338/.453. For a rental on a $4.2MM salary, that’s solid production that could bolster a contender’s bench.
- Jorge De La Rosa, LHP, Rockies: De La Rosa lost his rotation spot in late May and has somewhat quietly excelled since regaining it the following month. Over his past 78 1/3 innings, De La Rosa has a 3.56 ERA. His 43 strikeouts against 35 walks in that time aren’t encouraging, but he’s generating quality bottom-line results at Coors Field whilst playing out the final season of a two-year, $25MM contract extension.
- Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, Phillies: The Phils aren’t done dealing yet, as evidenced by yesterday’s trade of Carlos Ruiz to the Dodgers. Gomez has surrendered five runs in his past five innings but is sporting a 3.07 ERA on the season as a whole. He’d be a solid middle-relief add for any club and is controllable through next season as a bonus — though his salary will be enhanced quite a bit by his run as the Phillies’ closer.
- Blake Wood, RHP, Reds: To be completely honest, I’m not entirely sure why Wood’s name hasn’t landed on more of these lists. He’s a cheap bullpen arm on a clear rebuilding team that has some remaining club control. Perhaps the fact that the Reds can keep him via arbitration through 2018 means that they’d prefer to hang onto him, but there’s also an argument to be made that they should cash in on Wood’s 3.69 ERA and 9.3 K/9 — the best production of the journeyman’s career.
- Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies, RHP: Hellickson will be claimed by the first NL contender in need of starting pitching most likely, and with only one team to negotiate with, the Phils might not be able to coax more value than they’d get if Hellickson rejected a qualifying offer and netted them a draft pick. Limited leverage notwithstanding, a Hellickson swap makes sense on paper, and an NL contender could get desperate.
- David Robertson, RHP, White Sox: Robertson has struggled this year but has a 1.86 ERA in the month of August. With $25MM on his contract following this season, he’s a virtual lock to clear waivers if he hasn’t already. Teams may not view him as the elite reliever he looked to be when he signed a four-year deal with the South Siders, but if GM Rick Hahn absorbs a bit of cash there should be a market.
- Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins: It’s been a dreadful season for Plouffe, who has seen his year cut short by injuries and his production at the plate deteriorate. Those two things may be related, but even if they are, it doesn’t make his .252/.289/.385 line look much more appealing. There’s legitimate pop in Plouffe’s bat, and his defense rated anywhere from average to slightly above when he was healthy in 2014-15. A club looking for a corner infield boost could pick him up and hope he returns to his David Freese-esque ways at the plate and in the field.
- Danny Valencia, 3B/1B/OF, Athletics: Provoked or not, punching a teammate in the face in a clubhouse altercation isn’t a great way to smooth over existing concerns about your clubhouse demeanor. Valencia has raked over the past two calendar years but isn’t a great defender and has longstanding off-field concerns that far pre-date his fistful of Country Breakfast. The A’s are selling off veterans and Valencia’s bat, in a vacuum, is extremely appealing, but it’s not hard to see some clubs simply taking a hard pass in light of recent events.
- Ian Krol, LHP, Braves: A cheap, controllable left-handed reliever pitching well out of the Braves bullpen. We’ve seen this movie before, and it ended with a trade of Hunter Cervenka to the Marlins. Krol has more of a track record in the Majors, so perhaps the Braves are more confident that he can be a long-term cog in their relief engine. If Krol hasn’t already been claimed and pulled back, other organizations will likely put in a claim when he is. But the Braves could still work out a deal with whatever club has the waiver priority.
- Ryan Madson, RHP, Athletics: Madson’s contract will clear waivers, at which point this will be a matter of if the A’s can find someone willing to take on the majority of his salary. Madson’s overall results are solid, but he’s gone the wrong direction in terms of strikeout rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate. His 36th birthday is on Sunday, so teams are going to be wary about those types of trends in an aging reliever — especially one who sat out from 2012-14 due to injury.
- Ervin Santana, RHP, Twins: The Twins’ season has been an unmitigated disaster, but Santana is somewhat quietly on his way to his best season since 2013 and arguably his best since 2008. The 32-year-old has a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings and has been unstoppable of late, pitching to a 1.79 ERA since June 19. Santana is the best pitcher on the August trade market but the Twins have made it clear they’re not motivated to move him without garnering a significant return. At this point, that’s unlikely.
- Jon Jay, OF, Padres: Jay is injured, but MLB rules stipulate that an injured player can be passed through waivers if he’s served the minimum inactivity period and if he is healthy enough to play at his accustomed level. If Jay is able to begin a rehab assignment and show that he’s within arm’s reach of activation, he could hit the wire late this month and be moved just before the calendar flips to September. As a pure rental player that was performing well prior to his injury, he should be appealing to teams needing an outfielder — especially one capable of playing center field.
Also Considered
Yunel Escobar, Fernando Salas (Angels); Jake McGee (Rockies); Matt Garza, Chris Carter, Ryan Braun, Blaine Boyer (Brewers); John Jaso (Pirates); Brandon Kintzler (Twins); Zack Cozart (Reds); Brett Gardner, Chase Headley (Yankees); Yonder Alonso, Coco Crisp, John Axford (Athletics)
Blue Jays Acquire Dioner Navarro
The Blue Jays have acquired catcher Dioner Navarro from the White Sox, both teams have announced. Lefty Colton Turner is headed back to Chicago in the deal.
Navarro, 32, will return to Toronto, where he had played over 2014-15 before joining the South Siders this winter on a one-year, $4MM deal. He’ll presumably function as both a reserve catcher and bench bat for the Jays, who utilize Russell Martin as their starter behind the dish and also have Josh Thole on hand as a receiver.
[RELATED: Updated White Sox & Blue Jays Depth Charts]
It’s not yet clear how the playing time will shake out, but the switch-hitting Navarro could nudge the left-handed-hitting Thole out of his role as the primary backup — if not off of the roster entirely. Thole owns a meager .151/.246/.198 slash line over his 124 plate appearances on the season. But he is also the personal catcher for knuckler R.A. Dickey, and with the Jays also in need of another bat off of the bench, it’s possible to imagine both players co-existing on Toronto’s 25-man.
While Navarro has been a solid hitter at times in the past — he put up a composite 107 OPS+ over 2013-15 — this hasn’t been his finest season. He is carrying only a .210/.267/.339 batting line with six home runs in his 298 plate appearances on the year for the White Sox.
Still, Navarro brings a sturdy veteran presence to a familiar clubhouse, and won’t cost much in terms of cash to add to the mix. The remainder of his contract will only cost Toronto around $850K. Plus, with roster set to expand within the week, he won’t clog things up too badly and can add flexibility.
In Turner, the Sox will land a 25-year-old southpaw who has shown some promise at times this year. He was dominant at the High-A level, allowing just two earned runs on 19 hits over 31 2/3 innings while generating 13.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. But he has stalled since moving up to Double-A for the first time, where he has been tagged for six earned in 10 1/3 frames with a less-than-stellar 10:8 K/BB ratio.
Red Sox Place Andrew Benintendi On Disabled List
TODAY: Boston got fairly promising news on Benintendi, as manager John Farrell told reports including Tim Britton of the Providence Journal (Twitter link). The injury has been diagnosed as a knee sprain, with a litany of tests revealing no structural damage.
Per Farrell the organization is both relieved and optimistic that the young phenom can return this season. Boston is in solid enough shape without the 22-year-old, who has played in just 21 big league games, but he has provided a big jolt to the club and already seems an important part of the roster for the stretch run.
YESTERDAY: The Red Sox have placed left fielder Andrew Benintendi on the disabled list following last night’s knee injury, the team told reporters, including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald (Twitter link). Benintendi, who was initially diagnosed with a left knee sprain, underwent an MRI this morning, and while the results are still being evaluated, the Sox felt it was a serious enough injury to warrant this move. Infielder Marco Hernandez is being recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket in his place.
Mastrodonato tweets that Chris Young will receive the majority of the at-bats in left field with Benintendi on the shelf, with Brock Holt getting some occasional time there as well as he bounces around the diamond. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets that manager John Farrell said that the Sox are hoping this isn’t a season-ending injury for their standout rookie, but Abraham adds that said sentiment seems to be “more wishful thinking than anything.”
Benintendi suffered the injury while attempting to get back to second base on what ultimately went down as a ground-ball double play. Benintendi had to be helped off the field after his ankle rolled significantly and his knee bent in an awkward direction (video link), though Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald tweets that his ankle is “fine.” Benintendi hasn’t been with the Sox long, debuting on Aug. 2, but his production will nonetheless be difficult to replace. In 74 plate appearances, the 2015 No. 7 overall pick is hitting .324/.365/.485 with a homer, six doubles and a triple already to his credit.
Twins Looking For President Of Baseball Operations
The Twins have been in the market to replace general manager Terry Ryan, who was relieved of his duties in mid-July. But it seems that the team will not just hire a direct replacement. Instead, Minnesota is looking for a president of baseball operations who will in turn hire a GM and other front office personnel, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
That’s not exactly a big surprise. Many teams around the league have moved toward such a two-tier approach to managing baseball operations, with variations on the general theme proliferating. And Twins owner Jim Pohlad has hinted that his club could follow suit, as Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported in the wake of Ryan’s firing.
Still, it’s rather notable that the Minnesota organization is now apparently committed to that path. This is just my speculation, but the news could suggest that the club will look for a fairly seasoned executive to sit in the top spot, perhaps reserving the GM chair for a younger, more analytical type. Or, perhaps, the structure could help carve out a role for interim GM Rob Antony, who has been in the organization for the better part of three decades and remains under contract for next year. (For what it’s worth, after being hired as PBOp by the Red Sox, Dave Dombrowski decided to elevate Mike Hazen to serve as his GM.)
The precise nature of the arrangement obviously remains unknown — and may not even yet be decided. Rival organizations have utilized an array of different set-ups. Some presidents of baseball operation seem to hold onto many of the duties typically associated with a general manager, while others appear to be largely removed from day-to-day decisionmaking. Assessing the best arrangement for the Twins organization may well be part of the process of deciding upon a new operations chief.
Rangers Place Jeremy Jeffress On Restricted List After DWI Arrest
3:06pm: Club GM Jon Daniels says that Jeffress will go to the restricted list, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News was among those to report (Twitter links). That will likely only be a one-day placement, however, and is intended to ensure that the team has a full bullpen.
It appears that Jeffress was found to be intoxicated after drinking at a nightclub when he was stopped, with Chris Siron and Naheed Rajwani of the Dallas Morning News providing further detail on the charges. Though alcohol does not fall within the parameters of the Joint Drug Agreement, the league is investigating the matter, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter).
11:04am: Rangers reliever Jeremy Jeffress was arrested in Dallas overnight for DWI, reports Rebecca Lopez of WFAA 8 News in Dallas. Per Lopez, Dallas County Jail records show that Jeffress was booked at 5:13am. It’s unclear if he’ll face any sort of disciplinary action from the team or the league (though there’s little in the way precedent for league-mandated punishment following a DWI or DUI charge). The Rangers issued the following statement to WFAA: “The Texas Rangers are aware of the situation involving Jeremy Jeffress that took place early this morning. At this time, we are in the process of the gathering information and have no further comment.”
Details surrounding this incident remain unclear, though Jeffress has been disciplined for substance abuse in the past. Jeffress was suspended on multiple occasions in his minor league career for marijuana usage, though the last such suspension came all the way back in 2009. In a recent interview with MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, Jeffress attributed that usage to treatment for epilepsy, which has plagued him since his teen years.
Texas acquired the 28-year-old Jeffress alongside catcher Jonathan Lucroy in the Aug. 1 trade that sent minor leaguers Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz and a player to be named later to the Brewers. Jeffress has a 4.00 ERA in nine innings since the trade and a 2.52 ERA with 6.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, a 58.9 percent ground-ball rate and 27 saves on the season as a whole. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and can be controlled by the Rangers through the 2019 season.
Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Front Office
Derrick Hall will remain the Diamondbacks’ CEO for the foreseeable future, but that won’t necessarily preclude a major overhaul to the franchise’s baseball operations department. Hall stated this week that the club will make decisions on the two heads of that department, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and general manager Dave Stewart, after the season.
“There’s a lot to think about here,” said Hall, who doesn’t seem eager to make radical changes to Arizona’s front office.
La Russa and Stewart only took the helm in Arizona during the 2014 campaign, but the team has regressed enough under their leadership to make a regime change a legitimate possibility. After going 79-83 and posting a plus-7 run differential in 2015, the Diamondbacks’ first full season with La Russa and Stewart at the controls, the club has plummeted to 53-75 this year. Only two teams have lesser records than the D-backs, and just one has a worse run differential than Arizona’s minus-132. Injuries, primarily the fractured elbow that has kept star center fielder A.J. Pollock out all season, haven’t helped Arizona’s cause. However, even with a healthy roster, it’s fair to say the Diamondbacks would not have pushed for a playoff spot this year. Their front office had other plans, however, as evidenced by its aggressive offseason maneuverings.
The Diamondbacks’ most notable winter transactions included signing 32-year-old right-hander Zack Greinke to a $206.5MM contract and swinging a trade with the Braves for righty Shelby Miller. While still a quality option, Greinke has gone backward in his first year as a Diamondback (and spent time on the DL himself), which wasn’t the scenario they envisioned when awarding a franchise-record payday to him.
Giants Notes: Bochy, Pence, Nathan
It’s been more than a year since Giants skipper Bruce Bochy inked a three-year contract extension with the team, but Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports now reports that the contract earned Bochy a record-setting $6MM annual value. The contract runs from 2017-19 — Bochy was already under contract through 2016 when he signed the deal — and pays Bochy an even $6MM in each of those season. Angels manager Mike Scioscia has the record for the largest contract ever by a manager (10 years, $50MM), and Cubs skipper Joe Maddon’s overall deal is larger than Bochy’s as well (five years, $25MM). Both fall shy of Bochy in terms of AAV, however. The three-time World Series winner and future Hall of Famer has a career record of 820-765 with the Giants and an overall record of 1771-1740 as a Major League manager.
A couple more notes on the Giants…
- Hunter Pence was lifted from last night’s game after experiencing tightness in his surgically repaired right hamstring, per multiple reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. Per Pavlovic, Pence first felt the tightness on Wednesday and it worsened into Thursday’s contest — a near-no-hitter for newly acquired Matt Moore. The Giants have him listed day-to-day at this point, but certainly that’s an ominous ailment for a player that missed more than six weeks due to hamstring surgery earlier this summer.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle hears that it’s going to be tough for the recently signed Joe Nathan to earn a September call-up with the Giants (Twitter link). San Francisco already has a full 40-man roster, he points out, and they’ll need to add a third catcher to the mix as well. The Giants aren’t keen on designating any of their prospects for assignment, he notes, even those that are on the fringes of the 40-man. Nathan has tossed three shutout innings for San Francisco’s Double-A affiliate since signing a minor league deal and tossed a pair of scoreless innings for the Cubs earlier this summer before being designated for assignment and subsequently released.
AL Central Notes: Garcia, Hunter, Strahm
The remaining games in the 2016 season could very well determine Avisail Garcia‘s future with the White Sox, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. The 25-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the second time (as a Super Two player) but has once again delivered a sub-par performance at the plate, hitting just .243/.310/.380 in 332 plate appearances. Garcia disappointed in a full season last year (.257/.309/.365) but was tendered a contract due to the team’s hopes for improvement, ultimately settling on a $2.1MM salary. His lackluster play notwithstanding, Garcia will be due another raise on top of that sum. Garcia will probably never rate as a plus (or even average) defender, but a strong finish at the plate could seemingly hold a great deal of influence over Chicago’s thinking. White Sox hitting coach Todd Steverson spoke to Levine about the work they’ve put in on trying to alter the contact point and launch angle in Garcia’s swing in an effort to generate more fly-balls and line drives.
More from the AL Central…
- The timing of the Indians‘ release of Tommy Hunter yesterday looked strange on paper, as the right-hander was working toward a return from a back injury and was deep into a rehab assignment. However, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports (links to Twitter) that the Indians looked at their potential September call-ups and decided that they had more options they wanted to evaluate than roster spots available. The veteran Hunter was the odd man out, they decided, so they elected to release him now in order to give the 30-year-old a chance to sign with a new club before Sept. 1 — thus allowing him to be postseason-eligible with a new organization. Hunter injured his back in a fall at his home over the All-Star break but had pitched well for the Indians prior to his injury, logging a 3.74 ERA with 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate in 21 2/3 innings.
- Rookie left-hander Matt Strahm has been sensational out of the Royals‘ bullpen since being promoted in the wake of Wade Davis‘ most recent injury — 0.84 ERA, 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 10 2/3 innings — but GM Dayton Moore tells Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star that the organization views Strahm as a starting pitcher first and foremost. Strahm spent the season in the Double-A rotation, making a career-high 18 starts as he further distanced himself from 2013 Tommy John surgery, Dodd writes. In that time, the 24-year-old a 3.43 ERA with impressive rates of 9.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9, and that production, coupled with his excellence in the ‘pen, will have him in the mix for a rotation job next spring. The Royals will have Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Ian Kennedy, Chris Young and Mike Minor in next year’s rotation mix, and there’s been speculation that they could try to bring Edinson Volquez back into the fold as well. Beyond that, lefty Jason Vargas figures to be recovered from Tommy John surgery and will be in the picture as well.
8 High-Priced Non-Tender Candidates
A player’s years of arbitration eligibility provide an opportunity for value, as teams are able to retain veteran assets without being forced to commit to future seasons — as is often necessary in the free agent market. But there can come a time where even talented and still-useful players have pushed their arb price tag too high to justify the tender of a contract.
With performance and/or injury issues marring the 2016 seasons of these eight established big leaguers, their already-lofty salary starting points could conceivably prompt their respective teams to send them onto the open market:
Lucas Duda, 1B, Mets (5+ service class, $6.725MM 2016 salary): Back issues appear to have ended Duda’s campaign after just 145 plate appearances, and they weren’t terribly productive ones. In that relatively small sample, his walk rate fell even as he put more balls on the ground and made less hard contact than in his productive prior campaigns. The result was a below-average .231/.297/.431 batting line. With health and platoon questions at play, the Mets could well be forced to look for an alternative approach at the position.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Yankees (5+, $5.6MM): Despite his struggles, Eovaldi seemed for much of the year to be a fairly sure thing to be tendered a contract. He continued to show signs of promise in spite of the inconsistencies — a career-best 9.3% swinging strike rate, for instance — and at worst would appear to be a late-inning pen candidate with a fastball that sits at 97 even when he’s starting. But a devastating elbow injury means that Eovaldi won’t pitch next year. The Yankees aren’t likely to pay up just to prepare the righty for free agency, so the only way he stays in New York is through some kind of multi-year arrangement.
Early prediction: Non-tender, barring multi-year agreement
Jake McGee, RP, Rockies (5+, $4.8MM): Brought in to be a power late-inning lefty, McGee has faltered — and not just in the thin air of Coors Field. He sits at a 5.26 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9, with his swinging strike percentage (12.3% last year, 8.7% in 2016) plummeting along with his velocity (93.5 mph average four-seamer, down from a 2014 peak of 96.4). McGee has also spent time on the DL with a knee injury. Despite those difficulties, it will be hard for Colorado to part with McGee’s upside, especially having shipped out Corey Dickerson to acquire him last winter and given the going rate for quality pen arms on the open market. But with little in the way of encouraging signs, that just might be what happens.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Shelby Miller, SP, Diamondbacks (3+, $4.35MM): Miller’s struggles are well documented, and he has spent the second half of the year working through his issues at Triple-A. The results have been fairly promising thus far — a 3.52 ERA with 10.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 46 innings — and the lengthy stint has also impacted his future contract status. Because he now won’t top four years in total MLB service time by year end, Miller will remain under Arizona’s control for an additional season. That certainly impacts the cost-benefit equation, and makes him a likely tender candidate despite a fairly high salary and significant recent performance concerns.
Early prediction: Tender
Tommy Milone, SP, Twins (4+, $4.5MM): Things didn’t start off well for Milone, who was outrighted off of the 40-man roster one month into the 2016 season. He was rather masterful at Triple-A, running up a 1.66 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and a minuscule 0.7 BB/9 in seven starts, but things haven’t improved upon his return to the majors. Plus, Milone is now stuck on the shelf with a biceps problem. The odds seem good that he’ll be permitted to walk this fall.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins (5+, $7.25MM): It has been an underwhelming and injury-plagued season for the 30-year-old, who owns a .255/.290/.390 batting line with seven home runs in 284 plate appearances. With his power dwindling, Plouffe’s walk rate (4.2%) sits at about half of the level it was over 2014-15. Plus, defensive metrics have soured on the glove and Miguel Sano is arguably in need of everyday time at the hot corner. The Pirates just extended David Freese for two years and $11MM, which makes an $8MM+ payday to Plouffe seem a bit steep in light of his struggles. His time in Minnesota could end with a non-tender rather than a trade, particularly if a new GM decides it’s time to trim salary and focus on future assets.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Ben Revere, OF, Nationals (5+, $6.25MM): Brought in to handle the bulk of the load in center after a solid 2015 season, Revere has been a below-replacement-level player. He not only carries a miserable .215/.261/.302 slash over 335 plate appearances, but has gone just 11-for-16 in stolen base attempts despite typically rating as one of the game’s best bag swipers. While the Nats may well desire a left-handed hitter capable of playing center for 2017, the team may not be willing to pay quite as much as Revere will command in hopes that he can bounce back.
Early prediction: Non-tender
Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Cardinals (4+, $5.6MM): Coming into the year, Rosenthal was one of the game’s better closers. But while his velocity and strikeouts remain, he has permitted 7.3 walks per nine and posted a 5.13 ERA on the year. And now Rosenthal is on the DL with apparent shoulder and forearm issues. There’s at least some chatter that he could move to a starting role, and no suggestion as of yet that the organization is inclined to part with its two remaining years of control, but Rosenthal represents a rather costly roll of the dice.
Early prediction: Tender