MLB Trade Rumors

Cardinals ace Sonny Gray was briefly in trade rumors this past offseason but quickly quashed them when he told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he wasn’t keen on waiving the full no-trade clause in his contract. Gray’s name has at least tangentially popped back up on the rumor mill with the July deadline now just three days away. The right-hander tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Mozeliak recently revisited the subject of Gray waiving his no-trade clause.

The 35-year-old Gray declined to elaborate beyond the mere fact that he and Mozeliak had recently talked about the matter. However, MLB.com’s John Denton reports that during that conversation, the right-hander again conveyed that he prefers to stay in St. Louis — at least for the remainder of the current season. Barring a late change of heart, it seems Gray will remain with the Cardinals for the balance of the regular season.

The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported this weekend that the Cardinals would “entertain” offers on Gray and that Mozeliak had gauged interest from some clubs. Presumably, that was done in an effort to provide Gray with as much information as possible when having this conversation with him. There’s no indication that the Cardinals spent significant time workshopping trade offers before talking with Gray, but Mozeliak & Co. have surely fielded a wide swath of calls and texts regarding the availability of a notable portion of the roster.

A trade of Gray would likely have been difficult to piece together, though not necessarily due to his performance. It’s true that the veteran righty has turned in ugly outings in consecutive starts, ballooning his ERA from 3.50 to 4.33 over his past two outings thanks to a combined 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. However, he’s also less than a month removed from an 11-strikeout one-hit shutout of the Guardians and obviously has a lengthy track record as a high-quality big league starter. Recent ERA spike notwithstanding, Gray boasts a 26.7% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate on the year — both excellent marks, with the latter in particular registering as elite. Metrics like FIP (3.02) and SIERA (3.09) portray him far more favorably than his recently inflated earned run average.

Gray’s contract is another matter entirely — and a far more complicating factor, at that. The former AL Cy Young runner-up’s three-year, $75MM deal is heavily backloaded, which would surely prove a hurdle in any trade talks. He’s in the second season of that pact but earned just $10MM in year one of the deal. He’s making $25MM this year, with about $8.333MM yet to be paid out as of this writing, and he’s in line for a $35MM salary next year. Gray’s contract also contains a $30MM club option for 2027 that comes with a $5MM buyout (which is included in his guarantee).

As such, even though Gray is past the halfway point of the contract, he’s still owed a whopping $48.333MM for the remaining one and one-third seasons on his contract. That’s nearly 65% of the contract’s total value. The $5MM buyout on his 2027 option is deferred over a five-year period, but that does little to reduce the sizable net-present value of what’s left on the contract.

If the Cardinals were willing to take on a notable portion of that sum, they’d obviously be able to extract a better net return. As things stand, one-plus year of Gray at nearly $50MM doesn’t exactly afford surplus value. Even if a team valued Gray as a $30MM-per-year starting pitcher, his contract would be slightly underwater. All of that is rendered moot by Gray’s preference to stay in St. Louis. The Cardinals could revisit the situation in the offseason, but Gray would still be owed a $35MM salary and that deferred $5MM buyout. It’s a hefty sum, particularly entering his age-36 season.

That said, the Cardinals could have some extra motivation to get a deal done this offseason. One of the driving factors behind their dormant offseason was a desire to not only trim payroll but to clear playing time for younger players who could be core pieces. The Cards already opened up one rotation spot for young Michael McGreevy when they designated Erick Fedde for assignment (and subsequently traded him to Atlanta).

Moving Gray would further open up innings for young arms while simultaneously trimming notable money from the payroll. If the Cardinals were to eat enough of Gray’s contract in the offseason, they could extract some genuine prospect talent. That’s not necessarily the goal, however. Goold wrote in a chat with readers today that the organization would look to clear as much of Gray’s salary as possible — doing so “ahead of any other considerations.”