AL East Notes: Dickey, Blue Jays, Orioles, Fowler
Blue Jays pitcher R.A. Dickey revealed to reporters that he underwent surgery at the end of last year to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, as Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com tweets. Dickey was the subject of trade rumors over the winter but the club denied actively shopping him. It’s also not clear if the Blue Jays could have gotten much for the knuckleballer considering that he is entering his age-41 season, only under contract for 2016 and earning $12MM. News of Dickey’s knee surgery probably doesn’t do much to help his trade value going forward, either.
Here’s more from the AL East:
- Orioles veterans are happy to see the team continuing to make free-agent acquisitions, Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun writes. “He’s an awesome guy,” Hardy said of Yovani Gallardo, who was his teammate for a time. “Good pitcher. Obviously, you guys can see his numbers. He’s only had one losing season in, what is it, nine years? Great guy, great teammate. He’ll fit right in.” On Saturday night, the Orioles and Gallardo agreed to a three-year, $35MM deal with a $13MM club option for 2019.
- The Orioles haven’t landed Dexter Fowler yet, but Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com says the O’s might as well part with two picks in order to fill the 2016 team’s main holes in the rotation and outfield. Fowler would bring a capable leadoff hitter and table-setter with a healthy career on-base percentage and Melewski feels he would be well worth the draft pick compensation.
- After signing Gallardo, Orioles manager Buck Showalter isn’t sure what the corresponding 40-man move will be, but he says it won’t necessarily be a pitcher, as Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic tweets.
Follow MLBTR On Instagram
Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account: @TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend.
On Saturday, immediately after news of the Orioles’ agreement with Yovani Gallardo broke, MLBTR’s Instagram gave fans a sneak peek at what he will look like in his new jersey. Just before that, MLBTR asked readers to predict the landing spots for Yulieski Gurriel and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. a.k.a. the Super Gurriel Bros. Another recent image asked readers to weigh in whether the Orioles would sign Pedro Alvarez or Dexter Fowler or instead trade for Jay Bruce.
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Rangers Interested In Drew Stubbs
The Rangers have discussed Drew Stubbs as an outfield depth option, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. However, Texas only wants to sign him to a minor league deal.
Texas signed Stubbs to a minor league deal back in August after he was cut loose by the Rockies. After slashing .216/.286/.431 across 51 games for the Rockies, Stubbs hit just .095/.269/.143 for Texas in a limited sample size of 26 plate appearances. For his career, Stubbs has hit .244/.313/.395 at the plate across seven years.
Stubbs provided the lefty-heavy Rangers with a useful option down the stretch last season and he could be called back to fill the same role in 2016. Still, the Rangers are not presently willing to give the 31-year-old a guaranteed spot on the varsity squad. We haven’t heard much about Stubbs’ free agency in recent weeks, so an incentive-laden minor league pact might be a good solution for both sides.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Braves, Pirates, Cardinals
Here’s our weekly look around the baseball blogosphere:
- Atlanta Baseball Talk spoke with John Schuerholz and John Coppolella.
- Pirates Breakdown discussed how Jung Ho Kang can affect the Bucs’ run production.
- Redbird Rants made five bold predictions for the Cardinals.
- Jays From The Couch sat down with Jonathan Harris.
- Camden Depot ran the numbers on childhood memories.
- Clubhouse Corner chatted with LaTroy Hawkins.
- Blue Jay Hunter wonders if Toronto should re-sign Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.
- Big Three Sports reflected on Chris Archer‘s 2015.
- Inside The ‘Zona delved into the D’Backs’ rotation.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger ran down ten things for Yanks fans to look forward to.
- Outside Pitch highlighted some Yankees storylines to watch.
- The Score pondered Barry Bonds’ 2016 value.
- Sports Heaven says Starlin Castro should change positions.
- The Shark Tank talked Bucs NRIs.
- Blue Jays Plus says Michael Saunders makes Toronto even better.
- Chin Music Baseball says six teams are facing major pressure to win.
- Chris Zantow wrote about former reliever Ken Sanders.
- Philliedelphia debated the Wall of Fame.
- BBA projected the top five save leaders in each league.
- TPOP updated their Prospect Surplus Values for 2016.
- Wayniac Nation wonders if the Angels should move Mike Trout.
- Notes From The Sally previewed the 2016 Hickory Crawdads.
- Motor City Bengals wonders if J.D. Martinez can get any better.
- Baseball MTJAG discussed the big Cuban free agents.
- Gardy Goes Yardy ran down the Bombers’ pitching options.
- Now On Deck is thrilled that baseball is back.
- Pinstriped Prospects looked at five Bombers prospects who could debut in ’16.
- Jays Journal broke down Toronto’s left field battle.
- Baseball Essential says Rob Refsnyder is undervalued.
- Baseball Hot Corner interviewed Blue Jays top prospect Conner Greene.
Please send submissions to Zach Links at ZachBBWI@gmail.com
Dodgers Sign Yaisel Sierra
FEBRUARY 21: The Dodgers announced the completion of the deal. Sierra will earn a $6MM signing bonus and then salaries of $1MM, $2.5MM, $3.5MM, $4MM, $5.5MM, and $7.5MM, per another Heyman tweet. He will have the ability to opt into salary arbitration if he becomes eligible.
FEBRUARY 20: Sierra and the Dodgers are expected to complete their deal soon, Jon Heyman tweets. It will be in the $30MM-$31MM range.
JANUARY 12: The Dodgers have reportedly agreed on a six-year deal with Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra. Jon Heyman tweeted that a deal was in place after Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported this morning that agreement was close (Twitter link).
Per Passan, Sierra is expected to receive a guarantee of around $30MM. The Dodgers “pulled ahead” with an offer of between $30MM and $35MM over six years, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports (Twitter links). The other teams that have at least made a “strong push” for Sierra are the Marlins and Cubs, he adds. (Miami’s pursuit was recently reported.)
Needless to say, Los Angeles has been remarkably active on the international market, and the addition of Sierra only continues that trend. The club already added Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda in the new year, signed and traded Hector Olivera last spring, landed a number of high-priced July 2 prospects (led by Cuban hurler Yadier Alvarez) over the summer, and then continued to pay 100% overages on large bonuses to Cuban prospects Yusniel Diaz and Omar Estevez.
Sierra, like Maeda and Olivera, is more or less MLB ready, though he’s probably more likely to see big league action out of a pen in the near term. The Dodgers’ rotation is already arguably somewhat overloaded, though, so Sierra could factor as a 2016 relief piece while looking to tap into his starting upside down the line.
The 24-year-old seems to come with a fairly intriguing ceiling. While he didn’t post good results in his most recent action in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, he is said to have a mid-90s fastball with a good slider. The ready comp is Reds’ righty Raisel Iglesias, with Ben Badler of Baseball America explaining (subscription required) that Sierra has more physical tools but less polished command than did Iglesias when he signed.
Sierra boosted his stock with a showcase in late October that drew a throng of scouts. And recent scouting reports have suggested that the righty has shown improvement in cleaning up both his delivery and command. As Badler noted today on Twitter, Sierra looks like a potential mid-rotation starter at his best.
It’s easy to see the rationale here from the Dodgers’ perspective. Even as the team increasingly eschews large commitments to veterans, it is putting its admirable financial position to work by doling out huge bonuses on the international market. While Sierra won’t require the team to pay a 100% tax, as he wasn’t subject to international signing limitations, the investment still represents a significant up-front cost that probably won’t yield a commensurate return on the field in the immediate future (if it ever does).
Of course, that’s precisely the gamble that all teams take when they dedicate resources to amateur talent. But Los Angeles is uniquely well-situated right now to utilize cash to accumulate young, controllable assets. With the strict limitations applicable to the draft, and the organization’s coming two-year ban on international signings of over $300K, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if we see yet more outlays over the next several months.
Nationals Notes: Arroyo, Badenhop, Belisle, Giolito, Strasburg
We’ve had plenty of updates out of the NL East today with full posts on the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. Here’s some interrelated pitching notes from our nation’s capitol.
- Bronson Arroyo will have a real opportunity to make the Nationals roster, writes Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Arroyo had the chance for a near-guaranteed job with the rebuilding Reds. He opted to join the contending Nationals in part because new manager Dusty Baker and others in the organization are familiar with him. Said Arroyo, “I tend to be the type of guy who’s not gonna wow you with my bullpens.” He explained that his personal brand of consistency over flashiness takes time for scouts to evaluate. Health remains a concern for the veteran. he felt pain in his elbow when rehabbing last year, although scar tissue was blamed for the discomfort. Arroyo will apparently compete with Tanner Roark for the fifth starter job.
- A future Nationals rotation member, Lucas Giolito, won’t be making the opening day rotation, writes Janes. Instead, he’ll take time this spring to familiarize himself with the habits of veterans like Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. He’s expected to begin the season in Double-A and could be on the short list for call ups if injuries befall the starting five. His goal is to reach the majors this season, but that could be out of his hands if the starting five pitch well.
- Two minor league signings, Matt Belisle and Burke Badenhop, will also have a legitimate shot to earn a job, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. Four relievers are locked into jobs – Jonathan Papelbon, Shawn Kelley, Oliver Perez, and Yusmeiro Petit. Sophomores Felipe Rivero and Trevor Gott can be optioned to the minors if they don’t outperform their veteran competition. Even if both make the bullpen, that could mean there is one spot for Badenhop or Belisle. Of course, the loser of the rotation battle – Arroyo or Roark – may also find themselves in the bullpen.
- In typical free-agent-to-be form, Strasburg tells reporters he isn’t thinking about what’s next, relays Bill Ladson of MLB.com. He’s looking to bounce back from a mixed season that included fantastic peripherals (10.96 K/9, 1.84 BB/9) and a disappointing 3.46 ERA. So long as he remains healthy, he’s in line for a possible record setting contract. Interestingly, Strasburg’s spot may eventually default to Giolito next season.
Details On Orioles Pursuit Of Dexter Fowler
The Orioles and Dexter Fowler are discussing a two-year, $24MM contract with an option, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. No word at this time if the two sides are nearing agreement or have only exchanged parameters.
Fowler, an on base threat with a career .363 OBP, would offer Baltimore much needed outfield and lineup depth. His presence would push Mark Trumbo to a much more comfortable designated hitter role. Fowler would also offer insurance – both in the field and atop the lineup – in case Korean import Hyun-soo Kim struggles to adjust to the majors.
Defensive metrics aren’t always a fan of Fowler’s work afield. For example, he posted -1.7 UZR last season but -21.8 UZR in 2014 (or if you prefer on a rate basis, -36.2 UZR/150). It’s worth noting that he’s spent his entire career in center field. Baltimore would likely use him in right or left field flanking Adam Jones. Even below average center fielders tend to be assets in the corners, and Fowler only needs to outperform the always shaky Trumbo to be a net defensive gain.
As mentioned, Fowler is an on base threat who could help to set the table for Jones, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado. His .346 OBP last season was one of the lowest of his career, but that mostly ties back to a career-worst .308 BABIP. He typically reaches base at a well above average rate on balls in play. His 12.2% walk rate was right in line with his career norms.
Notably, the Orioles have already agreed to sign free agent starter Yovani Gallardo earlier tonight. Both Fowler and Gallardo were extended a qualifying offer, meaning the O’s have to surrender a draft pick to sign them. If they ink Fowler, they’ll lose the 28th overall selection.
Rangers Sign Jeremy Guthrie
The Rangers have signed free agent pitcher Jeremy Guthrie to a minor league contract, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com was the first to report the two sides were close to an agreement while T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reported it was a minor pact. The deal is pending a physical.
Guthrie, soon to be 37, is coming off the worst season of his career. Pitching for the Royals, he posted a 5.95 ERA (5.62 FIP), 5.10 K/9, and 2.67 BB/9 in 148 innings. A career high line drive rate led to an above normal .315 BABIP (career .284 BABIP). He also had an elevated 14.1% HR/FB ratio although that has been a common problem for him in recent seasons.
Given that Kauffman Stadium is one of the most home run suppressant parks in baseball, a move to Texas’ Globe Life Park is not promising. Guthrie will compete with Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nick Martinez, and others for the fifth starter’s role. Colby Lewis, penciled in as the fourth starter, is recovery from a knee injury. Yu Darvish will also eventually rejoin the rotation mid-season.
In addition to competing for a rotation job, Guthrie provides a very necessary safety in the case of injury to Derek Holland or Martin Perez. Both pitchers have missed most of the last two seasons with various injuries.
Orioles Agree To Three-Year Deal With Yovani Gallardo
The Orioles have agreed to sign Yovani Gallardo to a three-year, $35MM deal with a $13MM club option for 2019. He will be paid $9MM in 2016, $11MM in 2017, and $13MM in 2018. The 2019 option comes with a $2MM buyout, pushing the total guarantee to $35MM. The deal is pending a physical and does not include a no trade clause. The only incentives are small bonuses for awards (tweet).
Gallardo owns a career 3.66 ERA, 8.23 K/9, and 3.31 BB/9 across parts of nine major league seasons. After spending the bulk of his career with the Brewers, Gallardo was traded to the Rangers prior to 2015. He posted another solid campaign with a 3.42 ERA, although ERA estimators were less enthused by his work (4.00 FIP, 4.31 xFIP, 4.59 SIERA). It was his most contact oriented season – he had a career low 5.91 K/9 and 6.5 percent swinging strike rate.
The Orioles rotation was among the worst in the league last season, making Gallardo an important addition. While he’s not a traditional ace, he does have plenty of experience pitching in other bandbox ball parks. Milwaukee’s Miller Park and Texas’s Globe Life Park are two of the most home run friendly stadiums. So too is Camden Yards.
Interestingly, Baltimore inked Gallardo for substantially less than the Royals paid for Ian Kennedy. Both pitchers were expected to have similar difficulties on the free agent market. The former Padres starter is a year older than Gallardo. The two starters are comparably talented but Kennedy has the more inconsistent track record. Of course, Kennedy’s complicated deal is backloaded and includes an opt out after just two seasons, making an apples-to-apples comparison difficult. Kennedy also has a history of high strikeout rates while Gallardo is more of pitch-to-contact guy.
When the Rangers tagged Gallardo with the qualifying offer, some believed he should have accepted it. While the soon-to-be 30-year-old had a long wait to find a new home – pitchers and catchers have already reported to Orioles camp – Gallardo ultimately secured nearly three times the qualifying offer which was valued at $15.8MM this offseason. He’ll now be under contract through at least his age 32 season with a chance to return to the market in either 2019 or 2020.
Gallardo effectively replaces Wei-Yin Chen in the Orioles rotation. Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman, and Miguel Gonzalez will undoubtedly form the rest of the rotation, although all four pitchers were disappointing in 2015. Jimenez’s 4.11 ERA was the best of the bunch while Tillman and Gonzalez finished with just under a 5.00 ERA. The club does have decent rotation depth including Odrisamer Despaigne, Tyler Wilson, Mike Wright, and out-of-options Dylan Bundy, but none of them offer a high ceiling. Gallardo is the de facto ace of this group.
The Orioles will lose the 14th overall pick in the 2016 draft as a result of the signing. The slot value of the pick is $2.97MM. The Orioles also have the 28th overall pick which they received as compensation for losing Chen. However, they would also lose that pick if they sign Dexter Fowler.
Eduardo E. Encina of the Baltimore Sun was the first to tweet the two sides were finalizing a deal as well as the specific year-by-year terms. Jon Heyman reported the three-year, $35MM base contract with deferrals (tweet) and fourth year option. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation added that the option was for $13MM (tweet).
Orioles “Expect” To Land Both Gallardo, Fowler
FEB. 20: The Orioles are “closer than ever” to signing Gallardo, reports Encina. The two sides are nearing agreement on a three-year deal in the $35MM to $40MM range. Executive vice president Dan Duquette says a deal is not imminent. It’s worth noting that the Orioles tend to be very fastidious with final contract details and physicals. A final announcement may not come tonight, but it’s looking increasingly likely.
FEB. 19: The specific holdup in talks between the Orioles and Gallardo aren’t clear, but an opt-out clause is not the cause for the delay, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Baltimore is not going to give Gallardo an opt-out clause, and the pitcher’s camp is not demanding one in negotiations.
FEB. 18: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun hears that Fowler has recently been seeking a four-year deal or, at least, more than $45MM on a three-year deal. Baltimore’s reportedly increased willingness to spend bodes well for the two sides being able to bridge that gap. Encina writes that the O’s “don’t seem to be in a rush” to complete either deal, noting that fans shouldn’t expect to see either in camp today. Encina echoes the sentiment that the O’s ultimately expect to sign both, however.
FEB. 17, 7:35pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney reports some of the parameters being discussed by the Orioles and Fowler (links to Twitter). The two sides are exploring a deal that would pay Fowler $12-13MM per season over a two- to three-year term, Olney hears. That’s a hike from previous comparisons to Howie Kendrick‘s two-year, $20MM contract with the Dodgers, but even $12-13MM over a two- or three-year deal represents, from my vantage point, a rather nice value for the Orioles.
Olney adds that it is the Orioles’ “expectation” that they will sign both Gallardo and Fowler, with Gallardo bolstering the starting pitching and Fowler becoming the team’s everyday right fielder.
1:03pm: We checked in earlier today on the Orioles’ efforts to make some late additions of qualifying offer-bound free agents, as reports have suggested continued optimism that Baltimore will finalize a deal with righty Yovani Gallardo. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears much the same (links to Twitter), and adds that the O’s are “confident” they’ll land outfielder Dexter Fowler as well.
Notably, per Kubatko, the O’s have yet to agree with the dollars being sought by their open-market targets — suggesting that there’s a bit more ground to cover than some minor contract provisions. He adds, interestingly, that the price tag on one or both players has “apparently changed recently.”
The expected cost of these players at this stage of the market remains a bit murky, though we have heard suggestions on both. Gallardo was said to be nearing agreement on a deal that would pay him in the $40MM to $45MM range over a three-year term. And Fowler has reportedly drawn interest from the O’s at around two years and $20MM.
While there’s still confidence in adding multiple players, Kubatko says that the Orioles would be interested in reaching agreement with Fowler whether or not a deal is first finalized with Gallardo. Adding either player would require the sacrifice of the 14th overall pick in this summer’s amateur draft, while signing both would spread that cost somewhat since the O’s next selection currently stands as the 29th choice.
Meanwhile, Baltimore still isn’t ruling out a move for Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce. But it appears that the interest is tepid, as the team has real concerns about the former star’s ability to bounce back after two consecutive disappointing campaigns.