Terry Ryan: Twins Plan To Keep Trevor Plouffe
Twins GM Terry Ryan does not intend to deal third baseman Trevor Plouffe, he told reporters today at the press conference announcing the signing of Byung Ho Park. (Via LaVelle A. Neal III of the Star Tribune, Twitter links.)
Plouffe, 29, has emerged as a sturdy option at the hot corner over the last several years. In 2015, he put up a league-average .244/.307/.435 slash, with 22 home runs, while showing a solid glove at third.
A deal of Plouffe had seemed a distinct possibility with the addition of Park, who will see significant time at DH and thus push top young slugger Miguel Sano onto the field. Sano has long been considered a third baseman, but Ryan says the hefty 22-year-old will be moved to the outfield, as the team has previously suggested could be the case.
If Minnesota holds firm in its stance, then the third base trade market will lose one of its most appealing potential options. And the Twins will keep Plouffe’s projected $7.7MM salary on the books.
For Ryan, the possibility of freeing some payroll and getting something back for Plouffe isn’t worth the trade-off. “We had trouble scoring runs last year,” he said. “We’re going to go with what we’ve got.”
Red Sox Designate Roman Mendez
The Red Sox have designated righty Roman Mendez for assignment, the club announced. His roster spot was needed to clear space for outfielder Chris Young, whose signing was made official.
Mendez, 25, was claimed late last season from the Rangers. He has tallied 46 2/3 MLB innings over the last two years, working to a 3.09 ERA but posting a mediocre strikeout-to-walk rate of 6.2 K/9 against 4.8 BB/9. Mendez spent most of 2015 at Triple-A Round Rock, working to a 3.45 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 over 57 1/3 frames.
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Non-Tender Candidates
More than 200 players are arbitration eligible and unsigned for 2016. Around 50 of those can be considered non-tender candidates. Players who are not tendered contracts become free agents. The deadline for teams to decide is tonight at 11pm central time. Below is my subjective list of non-tender candidates. Please note that not all of them will actually be non-tendered — many are simply bubble players who at least merit consideration for a non-tender and could also find themselves traded. Click here for MLBTR’s projected salaries for these players, if they are tendered contracts. Also, check out our handy non-tender tracker, which will chronicle today’s action and can be filtered by team.
Position Players
Pedro Alvarez
Peter Bourjos
Drew Butera
Chris Carter
Pedro Ciriaco
Collin Cowgill
Ike Davis
Ryan Flaherty
Sam Fuld
Paul Janish
Jose Lobaton
David Lough
Will Middlebrooks
Tyler Moore
Brandon Moss
Nolan Reimold
Ben Revere
Rene Rivera
Hector Sanchez
Michael Saunders
Eric Sogard
Ruben Tejada
Josh Thole
Brett Wallace
Pitchers
Al Alburquerque
Henderson Alvarez
Steve Cishek
Louis Coleman
Ryan Cook
Aaron Crow
Steve Delabar
Felix Doubront
Josh Edgin
Neftali Feliz
Charlie Furbush
Nick Hagadone
Greg Holland
Jeff Locke
Ryan Mattheus
Jenrry Mejia
Mike Minor
Addison Reed
Marc Rzepczynski
Tanner Scheppers
Craig Stammen
Carlos Torres
Jacob Turner
Vance Worley
Royals Acquire Tony Cruz, Designate Francisco Pena
The Royals have acquired catcher Tony Cruz from the Cardinals in exchange for young infielder Jose Martinez, Kansas City announced. The club designated fellow backstop Francisco Pena for assignment to clear roster space, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets.
Cruz lost his backup job with St. Louis after the team inked free agent Brayan Pena. He is projected by MLBTR to earn $1MM in his second season of arbitration eligibility. That’s just $100K shy of the projection for incumbent Kansas City backup receiver Drew Butera, who could now be displaced by the new addition.
The 29-year-old Cruz owns a meager .220/.262/.310 slash line in 633 plate appearances over the last five years. That’s poor, even for a catcher, though it does rate above Butera’s own lifetime production. Obviously, though, Kansas City isn’t looking for much out of a reserve catcher. Just like Yadier Molina in St. Louis, Royals backstop Salvador Perez handles the vast majority of the duty.
Agent Jeff Borris Joins Ballengee Group
Veteran agent Jeff Borris, formerly of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, is now an agent with the Ballengee Group, according to a press release from the agency. That transition has a direct impact on this year’s class of free agents, as Borris is the representative for right-hander Darren O’Day as well as first baseman Mark Reynolds.
The Ballengee Group is still a relatively new agency but has several notable big league (or recent big league) clients within its ranks, including Heath Bell, Jordan Lyles and Brett Oberholtzer, among others. Adding a free agent of O’Day’s stature to its ranks will be a boon, as it would for any agency. And Borris himself brings a wealth of experience, given his lengthy career as a high-profile agent, with Barry Bonds serving as his most notable client.
Unlike other agency switches, the shift doesn’t figure to slow down O’Day’s timeline to sign by all that much, as his primary agent will be changing agencies with him. In some instances, changing agents can either raise or lower contractual expectations, but that doesn’t figure to be an issue here, and Borris of course has been involved in all prior negotiations with interested teams, so the same groundwork for a contract has still been laid.
O’Day is said to be seeking a four-year contract in the $28-36MM range, and many believe it’s possible for him to achieve that goal due to the demand for his services. O’Day is the top relief name on this year’s market, so despite his slightly advanced age (33), a lengthy list of teams has lined up to try to acquire the former Orioles setup ace, who sports a sub-2.00 ERA over his past four seasons.
The Orioles themselves are said to have recently made a competitive offer for O’Day, making them a serious player for his services along with the Nationals, Dodgers and Braves. Other clubs such as the Giants, Mets and Tigers have been tied to O’Day throughout the offseason.
As is the case with all changes of this nature, the switch has been reflected in MLBTR’s Agency Database. If you see an errors or omissions within the database, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
Free Agent Profile: Zack Greinke
After exercising an opt-out clause in his previous six-year, $147MM contract and leaving a guaranteed $71MM on the table, Zack Greinke is poised to secure more than double that amount as one of the top free agents of the 2015-16 offseason.
Strengths/Pros
Greinke is coming off a season for the ages. The right-hander’s 1.66 ERA is the lowest single-season mark for a qualified starting pitcher since Greg Maddux‘s 1.63 ERA back in 1995. Greinke doesn’t play in the offensive environment that we saw in the late 90s and early 2000s, but the lowest ERA in two decades is nonetheless incredible, and his ERA+ (which adjusts for both park and league, with 100 being average) rates him a staggering 125 percent better than a league-average pitcher in 2015.
Greinke isn’t some one-year wonder, though. He’s a former Cy Young winner (American League, 2009) with a longstanding history as an ace that is coming off a three-year platform with the Dodgers which featured a 2.30 ERA, 8.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 602 2/3 innings. I’m not a big subscriber to the importance of postseason stats over regular season stats, but even if you find it critical, Greinke’s work with the Dodgers checks all the right boxes. He’s been to three straight postseasons with L.A. and worked to a 2.38 ERA with a 41-to-5 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 innings.
While Greinke isn’t as young as most free-agent starters (more on that later), there’s a belief among scouts that he’ll age better than most pitchers because he’s not overly reliant on velocity and because he’s among the most cerebral pitchers in the game. As ESPN’s Keith Law wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) when ranking Greinke second among free agents this season, “Greinke’s command, control and understanding of how to set up hitters are all at or near the top of the sport, and as much as long-term deals for any pitcher frighten me, I’d probably give Greinke whatever number of years he wants.” Law’s colleague, Jerry Crasnick, polled a number of execs and scouts in the early stages of the offseason, and 19 of the 34 respondents preferred Greinke to David Price, with one scout calling Greinke the closest thing this generation has to Maddux and another saying he’ll age more gracefully than Price (which wasn’t to say Price will age poorly, but rather that Greinke will age abnormally well).
Greinke’s velocity has dipped from its peak of a 94 mph average in 2007, but he still averages a solid 91.8 mph on his heater, and as the velocity has declined, he’s improved in other areas. When he was throwing his hardest, Greinke averaged nearly 2.5 walks per nine innings, but he’s averaged just 1.9 walks per nine since his fastball dipped below an average of 92 mph. He’s become much more of a ground-ball pitcher later in his career as well; Greinke recorded a 40 percent ground-ball rate when he won the Cy Young in 2009 but was at 48 percent in 2015 and has averaged a 47.9 percent rate over the past four seasons. Per Fangraphs, he induced the seventh-most weak contact of any qualified starter in baseball this season.
National League clubs will love the fact that Greinke is a career .220/.261/.337 hitter and that he batted .224/.232/.343 with a pair of homers in 2015. Relative to the rest of the league, of course, those numbers are abysmal, but one also has to keep in mind that the average pitcher batted .131/.158/.168 in 2015. Greinke is a considerably more difficult out at the plate than most pitchers, and he’ll probably chip in a homer or two over the course of a full season.
Weaknesses/Cons
The list of weaknesses for a pitcher coming off the fourth-best ERA in the past 30 years is going to be relatively short, but Greinke’s most significant roadblock to a record contract is his age. Greinke’s velocity has indeed declined in recent seasons, and while the belief that he has the intelligence to succeed with diminished stuff almost certainly has some merit, one still has to assume some form of decline in performance as his repertoire deteriorates.
The other con for teams in the Greinke sweepstakes is that they’re paying for his services as he comes off an almost assuredly unrepeatable season. Greinke benefited from a .229 batting average on balls in play and an 86.5 percent strand rate — both of which were considerably better than the league norm and enormous outliers when compared to his career body of work. Greinke isn’t a consistent 1.66 ERA pitcher (no starter is), but his camp can use the historic season as leverage all the same. It’s been obvious that Greinke would opt out of his contract, barring injury, for more than a year. But, if he’d had a more characteristic season (say a 2.75 ERA in 210 innings) or even a bit of a down year relative to his first two in Los Angeles (3.30 ERA in 200 innings), we’d probably be talking more in the $120-140MM range.
The other con working against Greinke is that he rejected a qualifying offer and will cost a draft pick.
Market
Greinke will reportedly choose between the Dodgers and the Giants this week, with an average annual value topping David Price’s $31MM said to be attainable on a five- and possibly six-year deal.
While those are the two teams most heavily connected to Greinke, it’s not out of the question that a well-funded dark horse could sweep in at the last minute. The Red Sox and Tigers have already made their big free-agent splashes, but the Cardinals reportedly finished as a runner-up to the Sox in the pursuit of Price. Knowing that they were willing to spend at that level on a similarly regarded free agent, it’s at least conceivable that they could make a late entry into the Greinke market.
Of course, St. Louis hasn’t been tied recently to Greinke. Neither, really, have other clubs with significant spending capacity and theoretically plausible interest — such as the Yankees and Cubs, or even the Angels and Nationals. But the Cards operated quietly on Price, and it’s still possible there’s a lurking mystery team that could make a serious run at the new top free agent starter.
Expected Contract
Were Greinke heading into his age-30 or even age-31 season like most of his peers, he’d be in line to challenge Price’s new record-setting contract of $217MM.
Recent contracts of five-plus years for pitchers like Price, Scherzer, Jon Lester, Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia have seen the guaranteed portion of the contract end with a player’s age-35 or age-36 season. The same was true of Justin Verlander‘s extension, which runs through age 36. Even Roy Halladay‘s three-year, $60MM extension with the Phillies prior to the 2011 season ended in his age-36 campaign.
The challenge for Greinke and agent Casey Close of Excel Sports will be getting a team to commit to him into his age-37. If that happens, Greinke can approach $200MM, even though he’ll probably still fall shy of it. Nonetheless, he’s poised to land a free-agent contract that has, to this point, only ever been exceeded by the likes of Scherzer and Price.
The fact that the two chief suitors for Greinke are division rivals works out incredibly well for Greinke’s camp. Whatever value the Dodgers or Giants place on Greinke (let’s say five to six wins per season), they have to consider that not only are they adding those wins to their total by signing Greinke — they’re preventing their top competitor from doing so in the process. It can be argued that no team is hurt more by the Dodgers signing Greinke than the Giants, and vice versa. That factor may have substantially driven up the bidding already.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected a six-year, $156MM contract back in early November, but considering what we’ve learned in recent days, a six-year, $189MM contract seems attainable.
Pirates Interested In Justin Masterson
The Pirates are interested in free-agent right-hander Justin Masterson, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). The former Indians/Red Sox hurler is likely seeking a one-year deal to reestablish his value, Sawchik adds.
Masterson, 30, pitched just 59 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2015, marking his second consecutive season that was largely derailed due to injury. Masterson battled knee injuries for much of the 2014 campaign and struggled to a 5.88 ERA that year, and this past season, a shoulder injury hampered him. Masterson would eventually undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in September, though a recent update on his health status indicated that he’d be ready to go come Spring Training.
Prior to this recent rash of injuries. Masterson delivered brilliant performances in both 2011 and 2013. In both seasons, he logged an ERA south of 3.50 and was among the league leaders in terms of ground-ball rate. Of course, Masterson sandwiched a dreadful 4.93 ERA in between those two strong campaigns, but most believed that he’d have been in line for a very lucrative free-agent contract following the 2014 season had he been able to approximate his 2011/2013 results that season.
Though he hasn’t been healthy for two years, Masterson was looked at as a durable arm prior to that stretch, averaging 199 innings per year from 2010-13. And, while he’s only had two seasons in which he’s posted strong strikeout rates (8.7 K/9 from 2013-14), his nearly side-arm delivery and heavy sinker usage help him generate an exceptional amount of ground-balls when healthy (career 56.3 percent ground-ball rate).
The Pirates, who are among the most aggressive teams in the league in terms of infield shifting, tend to gravitate toward ground-ball pitchers and have developed a reputation for successfully rehabilitating pitchers with diminished value (e.g. Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Mark Melancon, Vance Worley). While Pittsburgh has a knack for finding fixable talent, some of that strategy is also borne out of necessity, as the Pirates lack the financial firepower to play at the top of the market — or, realistically, even in the middle tiers of the market — for free agents. All of those factors would seem to align to make Masterson a very reasonable target for the Pirates, although there are certainly other “reclamation projects” in which Pittsburgh could look to invest. Doug Fister and Mat Latos stand out as two names coming off poor seasons that could look to rebuild value on a one-year deal, and a more veteran option in the same boat would be right-hander Kyle Lohse.
Ilitch, Avila On Zimmermann, Offseason, Dombrowski, Scherzer
The Tigers introduced Jordan Zimmermann to fans with an press conference yesterday, but it was owner Mike Ilitch and, to a lesser extent, GM Al Avila who garnered most of the attention, per a pair of reports from MLB.com’s Jason Beck and from CBS Detroit (includes video of Ilitch interview). As Beck writes, the 86-year-old Ilitch made his steadfast desire to see a winning team in Detroit abundantly clear just four months after now-former GM Dave Dombrowski sent the club on a mini-rebuild by trading David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria.
“I’ve been in baseball for a lot of years, and I don’t care about spending money,” Ilitch told the Detroit media. “They get the players, and I spend and I don’t worry about it, because they have good judgment. We’ve had good teams over the years, and it’s a lot of fun for me.” Ilitch added that winning is “all I think about” and that he badly wants a championship in Detroit.
Avila told reporters that Zimmermann was the club’s top target from day one this offseason, and Ilitch was aware of that. “It’s very rare when you say to the owner, ‘This is the guy we’re trying to get,’ and then you end up getting him,” said Avila, who drew strong praise from the team’s owner.
Ilitch was candid not only in his praise for Avila but in his description of how the relationship between Dombrowski and the Tigers came to a close. “He knew he wasn’t getting a contract,” Ilitch told reporters. “That’s all there was to it, because I didn’t win with him. We were close. He’s a great guy. But you know, there’s times you’ve got to change. If you’re not winning, you’ve got to change. So I made up my mind: I’ve got to change. So I called him and I told him like a gentleman.” Ilitch did note in the above-linked video that he and Dombrowski spoke “like old friends” and certainly didn’t seem to harbor anything but respect for his longtime but now former general manager.
The frank comments from Ilitch also entailed his recounting of some frustration with Max Scherzer and Scherzer’s agent, Scott Boras. Per CBS Detroit, Ilitch recalled: “We made him an offer and it looked like he was going to take it, then all of the sudden he wanted a little bit more and it was a great number. It irked me a little bit. I figured, ‘how much do you want? I just asked you what you wanted.’ Then he tells me he wants more.”
The offer referenced by Ilitch, of course, is the six-year, $144MM offer which Scherzer rejected prior to the 2014 season. Many expressed disbelief at the time reports leaked out about Scherzer passing on the deal, but the decision proved shrewd in the long run, as Scherzer landed a seven-year, $210MM contract with the Nationals which, even with heavy deferrals, is valued at an estimated $189MM in present-day terms.
Back to Beck’s column, Ilitch indicated that he’s comfortable exceeding the luxury tax threshold of $189MM if necessary, if it’s necessary to land the players they want. Avila noted that the team would still limit its spending somewhat, though the plan is to pursue another starter and a relief arm, albeit more of a back-end rotation type, per Beck.
That would figure to eliminate the Tigers from the market for pitchers like Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen and Kenta Maeda (if he is indeed posted), each of whom could pull in significant commitments that match Zimmermann’s in terms of contract length (though probably not annual value). Even mid-rotation arms such as Ian Kennedy and Yovani Gallardo could command three- and four-year deals. If the aim is more for a lower-cost option, the Tigers could look to buy low on a reunion with Doug Fister or perhaps ink a lower-cost fifth starter like Mike Pelfrey (both names are my own speculation).
The relief market offers a number of non-closing setup types, though it’d seem there’s room for at least two more relievers — one left-handed and one right-handed. Detroit’s lefty options on the 40-man roster at this time include Blaine Hardy, Kyle Ryan and Kyle Lobstein (assuming Matt Boyd continues to work as a starter in the minors), so one names like Tony Sipp and Antonio Bastardo make for reasonable speculative targets. Right-handed names that fit the team’s typical affinity for high-strikeout arms include Shawn Kelley, Mark Lowe and Ryan Madson, while Tommy Hunter‘s velocity stands out among free-agent relievers (though he doesn’t generate a huge number of strikeouts despite his 96.2 mph average fastball).
Ultimately, as one would expect based on the Tigers’ history, the team looks poised to continue to spend despite having already reeled in a pair of high-profile acquisitions in the form of Zimmermann and Francisco Rodriguez.
Latest On Ben Zobrist’s Asking Price
Ben Zobrist‘s projected price tag “keeps going up,” tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, who hears from clubs involved in his market that the demand for his services has the price sitting at four years and $60MM currently. That price could still rise, says Passan. That he says the current price tag is about $60MM over four years would indicate that no club has approached that level just yet, although given the sheer number volume of teams that Zobrist could help, it’s easy to see how competition could push his eventual contract beyond that level.
The 34-year-old Zobrist has been one of the most in-demand free agents on this year’s market, with early reports connecting him to the Mets, Nationals, Braves, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals and Royals, among others. Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base, although I’d wager that if the clear highest bidder is interested in him primarily as a corner outfielder, that won’t stand in the way of his signing. FOX’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Mets consider Zobrist their No. 1 priority, and that same report indicated that the Royals probably won’t meet his ultimate asking price. ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin added this week that while the Mets may consider Zobrist their top priority, a four-year commitment from them isn’t likely.
Zobrist is coming off a strong season at the plate that was split between the Athletics and Royals. The switch-hitter batted .276/.359/.450 despite all of his home games coming in pitcher-friendly environments. Defensive metrics were uncharacteristically harsh on Zobrist this season, though some of that could potentially stem from diminished range due to knee surgery in late April. Zobrist spent only about a month on the shelf due to that operation, and while it was minor in nature, it’s certainly conceivable that Zobrist’s lateral movements were slowed to some extent following the procedure.