MLB Trade Rumors

December 18th: The Phils have officially announced their signing of Keller. According to The Associated Press, he receives a $4MM signing bonus and a $7MM salary for 2026, followed by an $11MM salary in ’27.

December 17th: The Phillies and right-handed reliever Brad Keller are in agreement on a two-year, $22MM contract, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The deal is pending a physical. Fansided’s Robert Murray first reported that the two parties were nearing an agreement. Keller, who is represented by Excel Sports Management, received some interest as a starter but will be used as a reliever in Philadelphia, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

Keller, 30, was a solid starter with the Royals early in his career after being picked up from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft. After a nice run of three seasons, his numbers took a sharp decline, due largely to the complete erosion of his command.

Keller walked a staggering 45 batters in 45 1/3 innings in 2023 and was subsequently diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. He underwent surgery to alleviate the issue. A comeback effort in 2024 didn’t pan out well, as he pitched to a 5.44 ERA in 41 1/3 frames between the Red Sox and White Sox, but Keller completely remade himself as a high-end bullpen weapon with the Cubs in 2025 after signing a minor league contract.

In 69 2/3 innings this past season, Keller was dominant. His 2.07 ERA tied him for 13th-best among 147 qualified relievers. The 6’5″, 255-pound righty set down 27.2% of his opponents on strikes and notched a sharp 8% walk rate. Keller had sat 92-94 mph as a starter and even in bullpen work with the White Sox and Red Sox in ’24, but his sinker averaged a career-best 96.7 mph in 2025 and his four-seamer clocked in even higher at 97.2 mph. His 56.1% ground-ball rate was a career-best mark, and opponents had an extremely rough time squaring up any of his pitches. His 86.7 mph average exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate were far and away the lowest marks of his career.

There are at least some modest red flags with regard to Keller. His 10.8% swinging-strike is actually below the league average and doesn’t support his well above-average strikeout rate. The quality of his stuff clearly improved, just as the quality of his opponents’ contact deteriorated, but it’s still unlikely that he’ll sustain a .243 average on balls in play over the course of a full season. However, even with some regression in terms of BABIP and strikeout rate, Keller still looks the part of a quality bullpen arm who’ll support an improved late-inning relief contingent for the next two seasons.

Keller should operate as a setup man to deadline acquisition Jhoan Duran, who came over from Minnesota in exchange for top prospects Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel. He’ll join righty Orion Kerkering and southpaws Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks in what should be a formidable setup corps for manager Rob Thomson. There’s still room for the Phils to add another reliever if a deal to their liking presents itself, but they’re six-deep in largely established relief arms with Keller now in the fold.

The $11MM annual value of the contract pushes the Phillies from the third tier of luxury tax penalization to the fourth and final bracket, per RosterResource’s projections. They were already paying a 95% tax on subsequent additions and were about $7MM from the top tier. Keller places them about $4MM over that line. They’ll pay about $22MM for him this season (assuming an even $11MM per year distribution) rather than that $11MM surface value. Any subsequent additions to the payroll at this point will be taxed at the maximum 110% rate.

The Phillies have done a fair bit of offseason work already. They added outfielder Adolis Garcia on a one-year contract just yesterday and, prior to that, re-signed slugger Kyle Schwarber on a huge five-year, $150MM contract. The Phils could still poke around the bullpen market or look for a complementary right-handed bat to pair with Brandon Marsh in left field. Rotation depth could be an issue as well, depending on Zack Wheeler’s recovery from his own thoracic outlet procedure, so some modest depth adds could be on the horizon. The most notable issue for the club, however, is at catcher, where they’re still hoping to retain longtime backstop J.T. Realmuto. That’ll be top of mind until Realmuto signs, be it in Philadelphia or elsewhere.