Orioles Working To Extend Cruz, Possibly Markakis
3:26pm: Markakis, too, says he is unaware of any current extension talks, tweets Connolly. He quotes the right fielder: “Nothing. Unless my agent hasn’t been telling me everything, because I haven’t heard anything.”
2:53pm: Cruz says that there are no talks at present, though he had some discussions with the Orioles earlier in the year, MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli reports on Twitter.
1:37pm: The Orioles have interest in reaching a late-breaking extension with outfielder Nick Markakis as well, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun suggests on Twitter. He does note that deals do not appear imminent with either Markakis or Cruz.
Earlier, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweeted that he would not be surprised to see the club try to open talks with Markakis.
12:08pm: After seemingly reaching terms on a deal with J.J. Hardy, the Orioles are now “pushing” to get a contract done with fellow free agent-to-be Nelson Cruz, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter.
Cruz, 34, enjoyed a monster season at the plate in his first year with the O’s, hitting an MLB-best 40 home runs while working his way to a strong .271/.333/.525 batting line. While he’s been known to have injury problems in the past, Cruz tied a career-best with 159 games played this season.
Cruz is currently playing on a one-year, $8MM contract after struggling to find a suitable multi-year deal last offseason on the heels of a PED suspension and a qualifying offer. The slugging DH/outfielder recently switched agents, signing on with Diego Bentz of Relativity Sports, so he’ll have different representation this time around than he did when negotiating his last contract.
If the two sides do indeed reach a deal, the free agent market will take a significant hit today. Hardy was arguably the best pure shortstop on the market, and Cruz represented perhaps the best power bat for teams looking to add some thump to their lineup. An extension for Cruz would be unquestionably good news for the likes of Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera and Yasmany Tomas, as there will now be less competition on the open market.
Astros Decline Matt Albers’ Option, Outright Jesus Guzman And Rudy Owens
After letting Jorge De Leon go on a waiver claim, the Astros have cleared three additional roster spots with a series of moves today. As the club announced in a press release, it has declined its option over reliever Matt Albers and outrighted first baseman Jesus Guzman and lefty Rudy Owens. According to the team, Houston’s 40-man roster now has four vacancies, though it would appear from this list that it stands at 37 (with Albers still technically on the 60-day DL).
Albers, 31, will head back to the open market after an injury-shortened 2014 campaign. He allowed only one run in his ten frames on the year, striking out eight and walking three batters, but shoulder troubles ended his season. Houston had signed him to a one-year, $2.45MM deal that included the option. The Astros elected to pay a $200K buyout rather than taking on the $3MM option price.
Guzman, 30, continued to see his star fade after showing some promise earlier in his career with the Padres. He hit just .188/.272/.248 at the major league level. The 26-year-old Owens, meanwhile, had his first big league start but posted a 4.33 ERA in 135 innings at Triple-A, striking out 6.9 and walking 2.2 batters per nine.
Athletics Claim Jorge De Leon, Release Adam Dunn
The Athletics have claimed righty Jorge De Leon off waivers from the Astros, the team announced on Twitter. To clear 40-man space, Oakland released Adam Dunn.
Clearing Dunn from the roster was more a procedural mechanism than anything else at this point. The 34-year-old has indicated he is likely to retire at season’s end, and has already played out his contract. Over a short sample in Oakland, he put up a .634 OPS that dropped his season line to .219/.337/.415 over 511 plate appearances.
In De Leon, the A’s have picked up a hard-throwing reliever who has accrued minimal service time. The 27-year-old has thrown just 17 1/3 MLB innings, allowing ten earned runs and both striking out and walking ten batters. He was much better over 68 2/3 frames in the upper minors this year, however, posting a 3.01 ERA and posting 8.0 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Free Agent Profile: Luke Gregerson
Luke Gregerson has been one of baseball’s top setup men since his 2009 rookie season, and he posted a career-best 2.12 ERA this year. Interest will be strong on the 30-year-old, who will be seeking the first multiyear deal of his career.
Strengths/Pros
Among American League relievers with at least 60 innings, Gregerson’s 2.12 ERA this year ranked 12th. Among free agents, only Pat Neshek and Andrew Miller did better. In Gregerson’s six big league seasons, his highest ERA was 3.24 in his rookie campaign. He’s posted an ERA of 2.75 or lower in each of the past four seasons. From 2009-14 among relievers with at least 350 innings, Gregerson’s 2.75 ERA ranks fourth in baseball. He’s been a model of consistent excellence in the late innings, using his slider often to stymie hitters even if they know it’s coming.
In San Diego, Gregerson paired up with closers Heath Bell and Huston Street for five years, and he’s never received more than 13 save opportunities in a season. Instead, he racks up holds like no other. According to MLB.com, a hold is given if “a reliever comes into a game to protect a lead, gets at least one out and leaves without giving up that lead.” Gregerson led all of baseball from 2009-14 with 154 holds.
Gregerson walked only 5.3% of the batters he faced this year, a career best. Only 13 relievers showed better control this year, and only Neshek and Koji Uehara are free agents. Gregerson’s 52.2% groundball rate was also a career-best, and the figure ranked 11th in the AL. Gregerson has been consistently tough to hit throughout his career, allowing fewer than 7.5 hits per nine innings in every season except 2011. His career batting average on balls in play of .267 is a big part of his success (more on that later).
Gregerson will not turn 31 until May next year. Only a handful of Gregerson’s fellow relievers on the free agent market are that young, and none of them have a track record close to his. One benefit Gregerson should have over free agent reliever David Robertson: he’s not going to receive a qualifying offer.
Gregerson comes with a remarkably clean bill of health, having only hit the DL twice in his career. He missed 25 games in 2009 for shoulder inflammation and another 25 in 2011 for an oblique strain. His 419 1/3 relief innings from 2009-14 rank second in baseball, behind only Tyler Clippard.
Weaknesses/Cons
Drafted in the 28th round in 2006 by the Cardinals, velocity has never been Gregerson’s calling card. He broke in throwing around 91 miles per hour, and now he’s down to 88.4. Only three relievers threw slower in 2014, and two of them are sidearmers.
Gregerson struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings in 2014, his worst mark aside from his 2011 season, which was marred by an oblique strain. The average AL reliever this year whiffed 8.3 per nine. It should also be noted that Gregerson’s success has come in both leagues, but always in pitcher-friendly home parks. For his career, he has a 2.02 ERA at home and a 3.60 mark on the road. The key differences are a much higher home run per flyball rate and batting average on balls in play on the road.
Gregerson threw his famed slider about 46% of the time in 2014, a rate topped by only three relievers. He was the game’s most slider-dependent regular reliever in 2012-13, throwing it 63% of the time. It’s possible heavy slider usage leads to increased injury risk. However, Gregerson has a strong track record of health, and noted to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle in March that he turns his wrist less than most pitchers and his elbow has never bothered him.
Personal
Born in Park Ridge, Illinois, Gregerson resides in Chicago in the offseason. He attended St. Xavier University in Chicago and grew up rooting for the Cubs and White Sox, according to a 2009 interview. For a look at how the 28th round pick found his way to the Majors, check out Jeff Passan’s article for Yahoo from 2010.
Gregerson is a board member of Struggling Youth Equals Successful Adults, which aids foster kids in transitioning to adulthood. In September 2012, Gregerson was the Padres’ nominee for the Roberto Clemente Award for all his volunteer efforts.
Market
As a Chicago guy, Gregerson might welcome a chance to pitch for the White Sox if they make a competitive offer. Sox GM Rick Hahn made it clear in September that he aims to “acquire multiple options” for his pen this winter. Other speculative suitors: the Tigers, Dodgers, Astros, Rockies, Rangers, Nationals, Yankees, and Red Sox. It is certainly possible that Gregerson could be signed to take on a closer role.
Aside from Gregerson, the best names on the free agent relief market are David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Jason Grilli, Sergio Romo, Francisco Rodriguez, Koji Uehara, Casey Janssen, Rafael Soriano, and Pat Neshek. That’s a lot of competition, and you don’t want to be the reliever left standing in January after the music has stopped.
Expected Contract
From last offseason, three contracts come to mind as comparables for Gregerson: Javier Lopez ($13MM), Joe Smith ($15.75MM), and Boone Logan ($16.5MM). From the previous offseason, notable deals include Brandon League ($22.5MM), Jeremy Affeldt ($18MM), and Jonathan Broxton ($21MM). All of those deals were for three years, and that is the expectation for Gregerson. Five of the six were signed before December, so it would be wise for Gregerson’s agent Tom O’Connell to act early.
You’ll notice that the average annual values from last offseason were about 20% lower than the 2012-13 period, even if we exclude Lopez on account of being older and an extreme lefty specialist. Some of that may be a function of Broxton and League having 111 and 60 career saves, respectively, but it could be a sign that teams backed off on reliever salaries. Plus, League isn’t the best example, as that deal was viewed as questionable for the Dodgers before the ink had dried. On the other hand, Gregerson’s consistent success led to him setting the arbitration market for his ilk, along with Robertson, so it’s possible a team could like him enough to set a new setup man precedent by giving an $8MM AAV or a fourth year. The four-year deal for setup men seems to have died out with Scott Linebrink and Justin Speier six to seven years ago.
Ultimately, I think Gregerson will sign a three-year, $20MM deal.
Orioles, J.J. Hardy Nearing Extension
The Orioles are closing in on an extension with shortstop J.J. Hardy and could announce an agreement this afternoon, Jeremy Conn of 105.7 The Fan reports on Twitter. Terms are expected to land at three years and over $40MM, with an option of some kind included on the back end, according to a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
An extension has long been rumored to be a possibility. But reports indicated that talks never really got started over the winter and early portion of the season.
Things have changed since that time, of course. For one, Manny Machado — long considered the eventual replacement for Hardy at short — suffered a second consecutive season-ending knee surgery and has in any event established himself as a premier defensive third baseman. On top of that, as you might have noticed, the O’s cruised to the American League East crown and into the ALCS. While it is hard to know whether that had any role in Baltimore’s thinking, the added current and future revenue stream surely did not hurt.
Of course, Hardy’s performance has had its ups and downs this year. While his power numbers are down, and he was fairly inconsistent at the plate on the whole, Hardy continues to provide immense value with his glove. In the aggregate, Hardy was once again about a 3-and-a-half win player in the regular season.
While several other useful shortstop options are present on the upcoming free agent market, Hardy seemed to be the prize — at least for clubs looking for an option that promises to stick at the position over the duration of the contract. (Hanley Ramirez, it seems fair to say, does not fit that description.) His absence from the market would be a boon to the likes of Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Stephen Drew.
O’Dowd Declined Rockies’ Extension Offer Before Resigning
Before resigning yesterday from his long-time post as general manager of the Rockies, Dan O’Dowd declined an offer of a multi-year extension from the team, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby reports. The offer, in fact, was made just last week, according to Ringolsby.
Needless to say, this report puts a new spin on the club’s surprising decision yesterday to promote Jeff Bridich to the GM role without undergoing any publicly-reported hiring process. Colorado also announced yesterday that O’Dowd and fellow key baseball decisionmaker Bill Geivett would be leaving the organization.
Ringolsby says that O’Dowd was not pleased with the power-sharing structure that emerged after a front office shakeup in 2012. Though O’Dowd retained the GM title, Geivett — whose title was senior VP of major league operations — kept an office in the clubhouse and was charged with running the major league club.
In yesterday’s press conference announcing the hiring (story via Nick Groke and Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post), team owner Dick Monfort said he was “excited about a fresh start.” But he did not offer substantive comments about how the changing of the guard came about, and was not made available for questions from the media. (Note that the Rockies do not presently employ a team president.)
Today’s news regarding O’Dowd also seemingly makes sense of recent reports that suggested no major changes were afoot in Colorado. But it raises yet more questions about what manner of authority Bridich will have in his new role, with Monfort having come under fire from internal sources for inserting himself into baseball decisionmaking. While Bridich is by all accounts a well-regarded young executive, it remains to be seen — as Paul Klee of the Colorado Springs Gazette explains — what kind of decisionmaking structure Monfort will set up around him.
Royals Will Attempt To Re-Sign James Shields
The Royals will make an effort to bring back top starter James Shields through free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Shields, 32, has given Kansas City 455 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball over the last two regular seasons, and is still pitching for the team in October.
While the club’s run to the ALCS has made that a return a more plausible scenario, Heyman says that the starting point for the decision came around the trade deadline. At that point in the middle of the summer, the club informed Shields’s agent, Page Odle, that it would be in touch after the season — a sign which seemingly indicated that a run at Shields was at least a possibility.
As I wrote back in March, landing Shields figures to be quite an expensive proposition, but perhaps will not be prohibitive even for the small-budget Royals. If past comps are any indication, even adjusted for inflation, Shields may not be able to exceed nine figures (if he gets five years at all) unless a true bidding war emerges. That could bode well for Kansas City’s chances.
Also helping the Royals’ cause is the qualifying offer that the team will make and Shields will surely decline. While he is an expensive enough player that the impact may not be too substantial, other clubs will need to weigh the cost of giving up a draft choice to sign him. (Of course, as a practical matter, so will Kansas City.)
As Heyman notes, the substantial revenue boost that the club should see from its postseason run will certainly play a role in determining whether the payroll space can be found for Shields. Not only will the team benefit from a playoff gate, merchandise sales, and the like, but should see increases in future streams through mechanisms such as season ticket sales.
All that being said, Shields will have plenty of suitors to choose from. After all, he is attractive to plenty of other clubs for largely the same reason he is to the Royals: in theory, he could represent a more achievable, less-risky investment on a shorter/smaller deal than other top free agent starters Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. Of course, if that kind of reasoning attracts enough bidders, it could drive Shields’s price tag up significantly.
Poll: Aramis Ramirez’s Next Contract
In his recent free agent profile of Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained that a variety of strategic moves could have significant bearing on both where he ends up and what kind of contract he might play under in 2015 and, potentially, beyond. As Tim explains, the veteran still holds plenty of appeal both in Milwaukee and the rest of the league, especially for clubs that prefer a shorter-term obligation from a consistently productive player. And the way things shake out with Ramirez could have widespread implications for player movement elsewhere.
So, let’s look at the decision tree that will have such an important role in determining Ramirez’s future. First, there is a $14MM mutual option ($4MM buyout) to consider. If Milwaukee decides it’s just too much money and pays the buyout, Ramirez would enter the market free and clear. If the club exercises its end, Ramirez could either take that payday or release that bird in hand and try the market.
In the latter scenario, the Brewers could still make him a qualifying offer, which would present another binary decision for Ramirez. Declining the QO, of course, would saddle him with draft compensation in free agency. If he goes that route, a new destination is possible, though, as we’ve seen in recent years, some players that test the market after declining a qualifying offer return to their prior teams.
Oh, and there’s one more possibility: Ramirez and the Brewers could essentially bypass this series of decisions entirely by agreeing to a multi-year extension at the outset (or at any point along the way).
This kind of situation is more or less what we live for here at MLBTR. Tim has already gone on record with his expectations, and it’s time that our readers did the same. (I won’t ask you to try to decide what Ramirez would do if he reaches free agency.)
How Will Aramis Ramirez's Offseason Turn Out?
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Ramirez and Brewers agree to extension 25% (1,291)
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Both sides exercise mutual option 21% (1,083)
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Ramirez declines qualifying offer and becomes free agent with draft compensation attached 19% (954)
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Brewers decline mutual option and pay buyout; Ramirez becomes free agent 13% (667)
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Ramirez accepts qualifying offer 11% (582)
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Ramirez declines mutual option and foregoes buyout; becomes free agent when Brewers do not make qualifying offer 10% (501)
Total votes: 5,078
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
It was a tumultuous season for the Astros, to say the least. A security breach led to a large number of trade notes being leaked to the public, the team failed to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken and manager Bo Porter was dismissed in September after apparent communications problems with the front office and possibly some players. GM Jeff Luhnow and his staff will need to work to move past that bad press and focus on furthering the rebuilding efforts.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Scott Feldman, RHP: $18MM through 2016
- Jose Altuve, 2B: $10.5MM through 2017
- Jon Singleton, 1B: $8.5MM through 2018
- Chad Qualls, RHP: $3.25MM through 2015
Arbitration Eligible Players (Service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Dexter Fowler, CF (5.168): $9MM projected salary
- Jason Castro, C (4.104): $3.9MM
- Chris Carter, 1B/DH (2.159): $3.5MM
- Tony Sipp, LHP (5.100): $1.5MM
- Alex Presley, OF (2.162): $1.2MM
- Carlos Corporan, C (3.019): $1MM
- Marwin Gonzalez, SS (2.133): $1MM
- Anthony Bass, RHP (2.148): $600K
- Non-tender candidates: Bass, Presley
Contract Options
- Matt Albers, RHP: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
Free Agents
Houston’s offseason began while the season was still underway, to some degree, as the team fired Porter and began the search for a new manager. A.J. Hinch — a statistically inclined 40-year-old with previous experience as a big league skipper and front office exec — was selected for the job and seems to be a good fit with the team’s unorthodox philosophies. As for the payroll, that figure almost doubled from 2013 to 2014, though it still sat at just $50MM to open the year. Nonetheless, owner Jim Crane told the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich that payroll could go up by another $20MM and noted that Luhnow could look to “add some cornerstones” as long as it makes baseball sense. That’ll be addressed in more depth later, but first, a quick look back at the season that was.
Lost in many of the negative narratives surrounding the 2014 Astros was the fact that the team took a large step in the right direction in terms of results. The team made a 19-game improvement over its 2013 performance, and the much-hyped future began to emerge on the field. George Springer debuted and hit .231/.336/.468 with 20 homers in just 345 plate appearances, although his season was cut short by an injured quadriceps muscle. Unheralded hurlers Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh stepped out of obscurity and into the spotlight not only as reliable arms, but as potential front-line options. Each was worth more than three wins above replacement, per Fangraphs, and more than four WAR according to Baseball-Reference. The only player in baseball who hit more home runs than Carter was Nelson Cruz. Mike Foltynewicz and his 100 mph fastball made a bullpen cameo at season’s end, though the team hopes that his future is alongside Keuchel and McHugh in the rotation. And of course, Altuve hit .341/.377/.453 and captured his first batting title. The second baseman led all of Major League Baseball with 225 hits and swiped 56 bases — tops in the AL — in addition to his excellent work at the plate.
One much-ballyhooed name that didn’t contribute this season, however, was Singleton. His contract extension was widely considered a loss for the player and a steal for the Astros seemingly before the ink dried, but five months later, it’s hard to blame him for taking his first fortune. Singleton batted just .168/.285/.335 with a 37 percent strikeout rate, and while he may be Houston’s first baseman of the future, I’d imagine he’ll have to earn a roster spot next year. Carter can assume the first base duties if Singleton is ticketed for Triple-A to open the year.
Houston may feel set at catcher with Castro, even if he didn’t live up to the high standard he set with an elite 2013 campaign. The Stanford product hit .222/.286/.366 with 14 homers — numbers that, while unspectacular, aren’t vastly inferior to the .244/.309/.376 that MLB catchers averaged in 2014. The outfield, too, figures to be more or less locked in with Springer in right, Fowler in center and a combination of Jake Marisnick (acquired in July’s Jarred Cosart trade) and Robbie Grossman. Top prospect Domingo Santana is another option.
One player they could make an exception for would be Yasmany Tomas. Last offseason, Houston made serious runs at both Jose Abreu and Masahiro Tanaka, falling a few million shy with their bid for Abreu and reportedly bidding over $100MM for Tanaka. Both were seen as more certain investments than Tomas, so it’s possible that Houston won’t be as interested this time around. However, one can also envision a scenario in which the team steadfastly refuses to miss out on a third international superstar and goes the extra mile for Tomas, especially if they’re convinced of his star potential. He could certainly qualify as one of the aforementioned “cornerstones,” and it does seem likely that the Astros will be involved. Were they to sign Tomas, Santana and Grossman could become trade chips, while Marisnick and Springer rounded out the long-term outfield mix. Of course, that’s all highly speculative.
Where else can Houston look to upgrade? The left side of the infield is a prime spot for Luhnow to target. Opening Day starters Matt Dominguez and Jonathan Villar flopped, as the former hit just .215/.256/.330 and the latter was every bit as feeble before eventually being demoted to the minors. Houston might not have to wait long until the future at each position arrives, however, as a pair of Top 6 draft picks from 2012-13 are looming. The Astros selected Carlos Correa — ranked as the game’s No. 3 prospect midseason by Baseball America and ESPN, and ranked second by MLB.com — with the first overall pick in 2012, and he dominated Class-A Advanced before a fractured fibula ended his season. Colin Moran, the UNC third baseman selected sixth overall by Miami in 2013, was acquired alongside Marisnick and hit .304/.350/.411 with Houston’s Double-A affiliate in 29 games at a young age for that level (21).
With Moran and Correa not terribly far off, stopgaps are an attractive and logical concept for the Astros. Houston could be a nice low-pressure environment for someone like Stephen Drew to attempt to rebuild his value on a one-year deal. He’d provide sound defense even if his bat didn’t fully recover despite a full Spring Training, and if he performed well, he would of course be a logical trade chip. The same could be said of Alberto Callaspo, who entered 2014 as a lifetime .273/.335/.381 hitter with a solid defensive reputation but batted just .223/.290/.290 this year. Neither option is elite, but both are bounceback candidates that could be had at relatively inexpensive levels. If Houston wants to look more long-term at third base for a potential mainstay, they could try to make the highest bid on a multi-year deal for Chase Headley, whom Tim Dierkes profiled earlier today.
As far as the rotation is concerned, Houston has a pair of potential stalwarts, as previously noted, in addition to the veteran Feldman as a solid rotation cog. Mark Appel‘s Class-A struggles were highly publicized, but rumors of his demise as a prospect looked to have been greatly exaggerated as soon as he reached Double-A. In 39 frames at that level, he posted a solid 3.69 ERA with a strong 38-to-13 K/BB ratio. He may not be a factor next year, but he’s firmly in the organization’s plans, along with Foltynewicz, Keuchel and McHugh. One-year, upside plays such as Brett Anderson, Brandon Morrow, Justin Masterson and Gavin Floyd all make some degree of sense. If the team wants to expand its search to include multi-year candidates, it may have to go the route it did with Feldman in 2013-14 — offer an extra year at a solid annual rate in order to secure the deal. (I speculated in my recent free agent profile on Brandon McCarthy that some clubs may go that route with him, for example.)
The bullpen presents perhaps the most glaring weakness on the team, and Luhnow has indicated that it will be a priority. Rolling the dice on Albers would be a $2.8MM gamble coming off some serious health issues, so I’d expect him to be bought out for $200K. After that decision, the remaining options aren’t inspiring. Beyond Qualls, Sipp and perhaps Josh Fields, there was little continuity and little reason to expect significantly better performance from the arms that were present. The team did claim Sam Deduno from the Twins in late August, so perhaps the plan is for him to serve as a swingman. Still there appears to be room for at least two veteran upgrades.
Throwing a lot of money at David Robertson doesn’t seem like something the club is likely to do, but there’s some upside to rolling the dice on a former closer who struggled a bit in 2014, such as Sergio Romo. Another avenue perhaps worth exploring would be to sign a setup man with a strong track record such as Luke Gregerson and promise him the ninth inning as a means of enticement. Some buy-low, late-inning options could include Andrew Bailey, Jason Motte and Luke Hochevar, though Houston may want more certainty after being burned by Crain in 2014. I like Jason Grilli, Casey Janssen and Burke Badenhop as fits for the Astros as well.
We’ve learned in past years that it’s tough to rule out the Astros trading anyone — just ask Cosart — and they do have some players that seem like candidates this coming winter. Fowler has just one year remaining before free agency and is projected to earn a fairly hefty $9MM. Castro could be an attractive trade chip for rival clubs given the paper-thin free agent market for catchers. Houston does have an in-house alternative at catcher in the form of the cost-controlled Max Stassi, who a year ago was their No. 12 prospect (per Baseball America) and ranked 19th among Astros farmhands on MLB.com’s midseason Top 20 list. The team reportedly shopped Carter this past July, although that was before he batted .253/.336/.526 with 16 homers in his final 52 contests. That impressive showing, especially given the difficulty of finding offense in today’s game, may have swayed their thinking. Then again, they may think that success unrepeatable and look to sell at peak value.
The Astros are staunchly unafraid of being nontraditional, and right or wrong, that often renders them as little more than a punchline in many circles. However, the team has an impressive farm system that is slowly crossing the threshold to the Major League roster, and it’s easy to envision a group that resembles a contender in the not-too-distant future. That time almost certainly won’t be 2015, however, unless the ‘Stros catch a large number of breaks. A few well-calculated stopgaps could help bridge the gap to the next wave of talent — Correa, Moran, Appel, Foltynewicz, Santana, Josh Hader and others — and potentially lead to a further influx of talent into the Houston pipeline. A veteran “cornerstone,” as Crane alluded to, isn’t out of the question, but aside from a run at a young talent like Tomas, it’s difficult to envision the Astros playing at the top of the free agent market.
Free Agent Profile: Aaron Harang
Last winter, veteran starter Aaron Harang hooked on with the Indians on a minor league deal and, at the time, he appeared to have a strong chance of being the fifth man in the Tribe’s rotation. In March, when he was informed that he wouldn’t be a part of the Opening Day roster, Harang requested and secured his release. That same day, he agreed to a big league deal with the Braves and he did not disappoint in Atlanta. Now, the 36-year-old is hitting the open market once again and this time around he should only be fielding big league offers.
Strengths/Pros
Harang exceeded all expectations this season as he turned in a 3.57 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. A lot of pitchers tend to tail off around Harang’s age, but this past year ranks as one of his very best at the big league level. His ERA was the lowest it has ever been (ditto for his identical 3.57 FIP) and his 204.1 innings of work stands as his highest total since 2007. Ultimately, his $1MM deal proved to be one of the better free agent bargains of 2014.
The 36-year-old won’t be held back by a qualifying offer and there’s reason to believe he could continue to deliver a ton of innings for his next team. Harang hasn’t been on the disabled list with an arm-related injury since 2008 and he can hardly be penalized for his late season emergency appendectomy in 2009.
Harang didn’t magically discover the fountain of youth or go on a hardcore Julio Franco-esque diet this past season. Instead, as he explained to David Lee of The Augusta Chronicle late last month, he has become a craftier pitcher in recent years.
“I threw a lot more four-seamers when I was younger,” Harang said. “I had a coach show me how to throw a two-seamer, and I started doing it, and every year it seems to be more effective. Once you get used to throwing it and realize how key that pitch can be, you make those adjustments.”
Harang made a concerted effort to start throwing more two-seam fastballs in 2009. As Lee notes, in 2008, when he threw 64 percent four-seamers and 8 percent two-seamers, he posted a 4.78 ERA and averaged 1.7 home runs per nine innings. This season, it was much more balanced with Harang throwing 29% two-seamers and 30% four-seamers. Harang’s pitch velocity has faded a bit in recent years, but thanks to a different approach on the mound, he has been able to adjust and age more gracefully than a lot of his contemporaries.
Weaknesses/Cons
While Harang’s 2014 performance was strong, his 2013 campaign didn’t go quite as smoothly. At the start of the season, the Dodgers traded Harang to the Rockies for Ramon Hernandez before he was quickly DFA’d and flipped to the Mariners just days later. After posting a 5.76 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 22 starts for Seattle, the M’s DFA’d him in August. Harang finished out the year with the Mets, meaning that he had bounced between four clubs all within that year. In total, Harang had a 5.40 ERA – a number his next club doesn’t want to see – with 7.1 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
This year, while his ERA was solid and his strikeout and walk rates were more or less consistent with his career average, some of the advanced metrics aren’t as crazy about his performance. Both xFIP (4.03) and SIERA (4.18) feel that Harang’s ERA should have been a touch higher than 3.57.
Harang is putting less emphasis on his heater than he was earlier in his career, but it’s still hard to ignore his decreasing velocity. Harang threw his fastball at an average of 88.8 MPH, his lowest average in the past eight years that it has been recorded by PITCHf/x. If his velocity continues to lose steam, it’s fair to wonder whether his 6.4% HR/FB ratio from 2014 can be sustained. For his career, Harang has a decidedly less sharp 10.2% HR/FB ratio.
Personal
Harang and his wife Jennifer have three children. He knows how important fatherly wisdom can be as he attributes his 2,100+ innings of major league work to sage advice from his dad.
“I would never teach a kid a breaking pitch until age 13,” Harang said, according to Anna McDonald of ESPN.com. “My dad wouldn’t show me one. He didn’t want [my elbow] to blow out. So I didn’t start throwing a curveball until I was 13 years old. I had the karate-chop one, where you just throw it and it spins up there. Your muscles aren’t developed enough, your ligaments aren’t developed enough to withstand it.”
Harang, a San Diego native, told Dan Hayes (then of U-T San Diego) in 2010 that he prefers fish tacos to Skyline Chili, even though he has spent the bulk of his career in Cincinnati. He also prefers The Simpsons to Family Guy, which is the right choice in my book.
Market
For his part, Harang told reporters, including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, that he would be interested in pitching for Atlanta again. The Braves undoubtedly appreciate his work this year, but they also know that they can’t retain him with another one-year, $1MM deal. In theory, the Braves can trot out a starting five of Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, and Alex Wood. However, Medlen and Beachy are recovering from Tommy John surgery with unknown return dates and it would certainly help to have a battle-tested veteran pitcher at the ready.
Still, he may not be in the budget in Atlanta and he may not take a discount to stay put since this could be his last sizable deal. The Pirates are one team that could use a reasonably priced out-of-house addition to their rotation. Harang may also find a match with teams like the Astros and Rockies if he’s not aiming for a likely contender.
Expected Contract
Last winter, Bronson Arroyo, also at the age of 36, secured a guaranteed $23.5MM over two years from the Diamondbacks with an $11MM club option. Like Arroyo, Harang fits the profile of a durable innings eater who isn’t dependent on velocity for success and both had strong walk years before hitting the open market. However, not all innings eaters are created equal: before Arroyo’s unfortunate UCL tear this season, he pitched 200 innings or more from 2005 through 2013, with the exception of a 199 inning total in 2011. Also, Harang’s vagabond 2013 might hurt his case for big money.
We expect the Levinson brothers to readily bring up Arroyo’s name, but Harang probably won’t match his deal. I predict Harang will land a two-year, $14MM deal this offseason.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.