After signing a two-year, $15.5MM contract prior to the 2013 season, Brandon McCarthy struggled with the Diamondbacks before experiencing a tremendous turnaround following a trade to the Yankees. He’ll hit the open market this season in a strong crop of free agent pitchers as he looks to cash in on his big second half.
Strengths/Pros
McCarthy’s past two seasons don’t look great on the whole, but there were plenty of indicators that his ERA with the D’Backs, particularly this year, was in part due to poor luck. He was racking up strikeouts at the highest rate of his career with an elite ground-ball rate and a 1.6 BB/9 mark prior to his trade — all signs that led the Yankees to acquire him in exchange for Vidal Nuno. The rest of the season was a 180-degree turn for McCarthy, whose 5.01 ERA with Arizona feels like a distant memory after he posted a 2.89 mark with the Yankees.
McCarthy finished this season with a 5.3 K/BB ratio — tops among free agent starters — and a 52.6 percent ground-ball rate, both indicators that future success could be on the horizon. This season also marked the healthiest year of his career, as he made a career-high 32 starts and totaled a career-high 200 innings. His diminished performance in Arizona takes some shine off his recent numbers, but over the past four years McCarthy has a cumulative 3.81 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 and a 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. FIP (3.44), xFIP (3.43) and SIERA (3.60) all feel he’s been better than that ERA would indicate.
McCarthy posted the best peripherals of his career this season in part because his fastball averaged a career-high 92.9 mph. That led to the best swinging-strike rate he’s posted (8.8 percent on the season; 9.4 percent with the Yankees) since working as a reliever for the White Sox in 2006. Hitters have never chased out-of-zone pitches from McCarthy as often as they did in 2014, and they made less contact (82.3%) against him this season than they have since that 2006 campaign. That his greatest success came in on a contending team in a large market in the AL East will carry some weight with interested teams.
At 31 years of age, McCarthy isn’t necessarily a young free agent, but he’s younger than many of the pitchers in the second tier of this year’s market, including Jake Peavy, Ervin Santana and Jason Hammel. He’s also ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded midseason, something that fellow 31-year-old free agent Francisco Liriano cannot say. A combination of relative youth, strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, increased velocity and no qualifying offer are strong points in his favor.
Weaknesses/Cons
Despite all of the things working in McCarthy’s favor, there’s simply no getting around the fact that he doesn’t have a track record of durability. While one of his most recent injuries — a terrifying head injury suffered in 2012 when struck by a line drive — was clearly a freak accident, McCarthy has had multiple stress fractures in his throwing shoulder in the past. He’s landed on the DL for a shoulder problem five times in his career (including once in 2013), and he also missed nearly the entire 2008 season with a forearm injury. McCarthy has only topped 170 innings twice — in 2011 and in 2014.
McCarthy’s agent, Ryan Ware of LSW Baseball, will also have to explain his client’s sub-par ERA with the D’Backs to interested parties this offseason. For as excellent as he was with the Yankees, McCarthy turned in 224 2/3 innings of 4.75 ERA ball with Arizona prior to his turnaround. Can 90 innings with New York erase concerns over that performance? Ware can point out that there was some poor luck involved, which is true, but McCarthy has a history of posting low strand rates in his career. His overall mark of 71 percent is slightly below average, but he’s turned in four seasons with a strand rate south of 69 percent as a starter — something that does lead to a discrepancy between ERA and FIP. He hasn’t been a strikeout pitcher in previous seasons either, though that may no longer be the case if he can maintain his newfound velocity.
Personal
McCarthy is seen as a student of the game and is considered one of the most intelligent minds in baseball. As noted by Eddie Matz of ESPN The Magazine last year, McCarthy home-schooled himself in sabermetric principles and used his findings to reinvent himself as a pitcher in 2009 — adjusting his pitch repertoire and changing his gameplan on the mound.
Matz writes that McCarthy is an avid reader and has an extensive vocabulary that he regularly drops into everyday conversation. He’s very active on Twitter — a trait that has endeared him to many fans — and is said to be known for a dry sense of humor.
Market
It’s not hard to envision half the teams in the league (or more) showing interest in McCarthy. The lack of draft pick forfeiture attached to his name and the fact that he will command lesser money than top arms Max Scherzer, James Shields and Jon Lester is undoubtedly attractive.
Contending teams in need of immediate rotation help and non-contending clubs alike will show interest. The Yankees could certainly use McCarthy back, and I wonder if his turnaround in the Bronx gives them a bit of an inside track in landing him this offseason. Other teams that could be in need of arms will include (but certainly aren’t limited to) the Red Sox, Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Giants, Marlins, Phillies, Pirates, Braves and Astros.
McCarthy has said he’d be open to returning to the Yankees, and he also noted that he’d be willing to sign early in the offseason if an offer to his liking came along. Oftentimes, signing early is a good move for free agents — particularly those that are below the top tier of the free agent class.
Expected Contract
Though his two-year platform heading into free agency is weaker than his previous two-year platform from an ERA standpoint, McCarthy’s entering free agency without the specter of a career-threatening head injury hanging over him as he did in the 2012-13 offseason. The market for pitching has only grown since that time, and as such, McCarthy should exceed his previous contract with ease.
Given his turnaround, strong peripherals and lack of a qualifying offer, I think a three-year deal is attainable for McCarthy. I’d expect that many teams will be comfortable pushing to three years in order to land him, and it’s possible that the first team that blinks and gives him a fourth year, even if it lowers the average annual value of the deal, will end up signing him. While I’m not ruling out the fourth-year scenario, I’m going to predict that McCarthy ends up on a three-year, $36MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Oakland sign him again…
YES Network announcers have said during broadcasts that McCarthy credits Catcher Brian McCann with helping him improve pitch selection to be more effective in setting up strikeouts. So, perhaps this will also influence his decision to stay with the Yankees.
Not doubting that report, but his K/9 only went up by .5 while with the Yankees, and the 7.63 K/9 he was putting up with the D’Backs was 1.4 higher than his career average and a 2.6 increase over his 2013 season of 5.07. Not sure if McCann really helped increase his strikeout totals much. Although having extra confidence on the mound (due to the fact McCarthy felt McCann helped with his pitch selection) could have played a role in his improved numbers. I actually hope that’s the case and the Yankees re-sign him.
With Kuroda likely gone, the Yanks might be more inclined to pay him 3/36.
I’m not sure he’ll get that much in guaranteed money but with the contract Kazmir got there could be a desperate team in need of pitching to pay up, but I don’t think the Yankees would, at least for him.
I’m inclined to agree, but I’m not sure I’d rule out the Yankees as desperate for pitching. Kuroda was their only starter who pitched over 30 starts.
I suppose hoping that Tanaka is okay is pretty much the only thing they can do in that situation. There’s no reason to assume Greene won’t pull a full load, but that’s hardly true of CC and Pineda. The Yankees need another starter, probably two.
Even with all the injuries the Yankees pitching still held up. They also have Phelps who can start, and Warren who can backup. I would think the Yankees might target Lester or Shields this offseason which McCarthy might not fit in their plans if they acquire one or both.
Doubt the Yankees get both Shields and Lester, as that would be something like 40+ MM just for 2015. The Yankees already have something like 170MM committed if I remember correctly, so targeting the less expensive Shields and trying to bring in McCarthy as well is very conceivable. You and RevMurph are right though, the Yankees need at add two SP to the rotation, especially with Kuroda likely leaving.
There is also Ivan Nova. He is expected to return in May from Tommy John surgery.
The Yankees could spend big although they may do it on offense if possible. They wont want to risk missing 3 consecutive years of the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if they go hard for Lester and Shields. Yes they have $168 million committed but they’ll be back around $200 maybe more.
Would love to see Minnesota at least consider McCarthy. Though I realize they have a ton of money committed to Hughes/Nolasco/Mauer. I can dream though.
Don’t forget Big Pelf!
Ugh, yes. I’m kind of hoping he retires. Not that that would free up the money, just a waste.
Advanced metric have always said McCarthy was better than his results in Arizona but there is no getting around the fact that he has had 5 arm injuries in 9 years and has average 23 starts a year. Any team that signs McCarthy should plan on him spending 1/3 of the season on the DL.
Or 1/3 of the contract.
Like Shields and Victor Martinez, at least 10 teams fans think this is a guy that fits perfectly on their team, and is a lock to go there.
OK Theo- start here.A decent arm with veteran presence.(But no more than 3 years)
Him and Lester, maybe get the shark back in 2016.
The future is now.
actually the future is in the future. Now is now.
What happened to then?
It came and went.
I feel like he’d take 2/20-25 or 3/30-36 depending on who offers.
I think at 3 years / $36 or $39MM McCarthy won’t have any trouble finding a team to sign him. He can’t get a qualifying offer and he proved the 2nd half of the season with the proper manager/team he still has plenty left in the tank, he turns 32 in July 2015. I’d love for the Yankees to re-sign him at that price.
When you consider both Lester and Scherzer are going to cost a team probably at least 6 years more likely 7 years and probably $25MM plus AAV per. In Scherzer case a draft pick as well. Shields will cost a draft pick plus a deal of about $20MM per AAV. McCarthy would be a bargain at 3 years and $12 or $13MM per.
Saw McCarthy pitch a couple of times and was impressed when he was with the A’s and the Yankees. He definitely can be a shut-down starter. Not sure why he hasn’t gotten more attention….I’d take him over Scherzer easily…..his wife isn’t too bad either.
I can see the Yanks signing McCarthy for 3/30, and signing either Shields or Scherzer.
3/36 just seems like an awful lot for a player who just hasn’t been particularly consistent. Obviously if he pitches like he did with the Yankees, it would be a reasonable contract. But you could easily be talking about someone who might throw 450 innings in three years, max, and keep up a career average of about 1 WAR per hundred innings. That’s not that special.