Phillies Sign Aaron Nola
4:08pm: Nola will receive the full slot bonus of $3.3MM and change, tweets Jim Callis of MLB.com.
1:08pm: The Phillies announced that they have agreed to terms with right-hander Aaron Nola, whom they selected out of Louisiana State with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. Terms of the deal have yet to be reported, but the assigned pick value is $3,300,900, according to Baseball America. Nola was advised by and is now represented by Paragon Sports International.
Nola, considered by some to be the most polished collegiate pitcher in the 2014 draft class, was a consensus Top 10 talent and generated some buzz within the Top 5 leading up to the draft as well. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked Nola sixth among draft prospects, while Baseball America pegged him seventh and Keith Law of ESPN.com ranked him ninth.
In his Junior season at LSU, Nola completely dominated the competition, pitching to an 11-1 record with a 1.47 ERA and a 134-to-27 K/BB ratio in 116 1/3 innings of work. He surrendered just 12 extra-base hits this season (eight doubles, four homers) and held opponents to a minuscule .172 batting average.
Mayo and Callis noted that Nola has “exquisite command” of a three-pitch mix and “effortlessly” sits at 91 to 93 mph with his fastball, also featuring a sometimes-plus changeup and a breaking ball that can both be thrown for strikes. BA has Nola sitting 93 to 94 mph with his fastball and touching 95 while commanding both sides of the plate with some of the best command in the college class. BA also calls Nola “one of the safest bets in the class.” Law’s early scouting report expressed some concern about Nola’s three-quarter arm slot but noted that it does “give right-handed hitters fits” and generate a good deal of ground-balls.
Nola is the first college player selected by the Phillies in the first round since Joe Savery back in 2007. MLBTR’s Zach Links spoke with Nola for our Draft Prospect Q&A series.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros To Sign A.J. Reed
TODAY: Reed will receive the full slot value of $1.35MM, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
YESTERDAY: The Astros have agreed to terms with second-round choice A.J. Reed, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (via Twitter). Reed says that he will formally sign on Wednesday.
Though the terms of the bonus were not disclosed, Reed — a junior first baseman from the University of Kentucky — was chosen with the 42nd overall pick, which comes with a $1.35MM slot value (via Baseball America). That was precisely where he should have been taken, according to the talent rankings of ESPN.com’s Keith Law (who placed him at 42nd overall) and Baseball America (41st).
MLB.com was even more bullish on Reed, saying that he offers a rare combination of consistent contact and real pop at the plate. He is regarded as a strong defender, though he lacks the foot speed to play off of first. Reed is also an accomplished collegiate pitcher, but profiles to carry much more value off the mound.
Cubs Release Jose Veras
June 10: Veras has been released, tweets Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.
June 3: The Cubs have designated reliever Jose Veras for assignment, tweets Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald. The 33-year-old veteran was signed to serve as Chicago’s closer after the Tigers declined to pick up his club option.
Veras represents a fairly significant miss for the Cubs front office. He was given a $4MM guarantee, including this year’s salary and a $150K buyout for a 2015 club option at $5.5MM. In addition to putting a consistent presence at the back of the bullpen, the Cubs no doubt considered the possibility of dangling Veras at the trade deadline.
But that was not to be. Across 13 1/3 innings on the season, Veras has worked to a 8.10 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 7.4 BB/9. Adding injury to insult, he then missed 17 games with an oblique strain. But Veras was actually much better upon his return from the DL. Since May 15, he has thrown 7 2/3 innings and allowed just two earned runs and a walk while setting down eight batters on strikes.
Blue Jays To Sign Sean Reid-Foley
The Blue Jays have agreed to terms with second-round selection and No. 49 overall pick Sean Reid-Foley, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Reid-Foley himself hinted on Twitter recently that he would be signing with Toronto. Many thought that Foley, who was projected as a potential first-round talent, would be signed to an over-slot deal due to his slide to No. 49, but Heyman reports that he will sign for the slot value of $1.128MM, which seems like a nice deal for Toronto.
Reid-Foley, a high school right-hander out of Florida, was MLB.com’s 18th-ranked prospect heading into the drat. Baseball America ranked him 19th, and ESPN’s Keith Law, while a bit more pessimistic on Reid-Foley, still ranked him 35th on his pre-draft Top 100. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com praised Reid-Foley’s fastball, which sits 91 to 93 mph and touches 95 mph, as well as his four-pitch mix and his ability to repeat his delivery. Law praised Reid-Foley’s fastball and breaking ball but felt that his changeup needs work if he is to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 starter in the Majors.
A Florida State commit, Reid-Foley will be the second top pick to join the Blue Jays organization today rather than head to college. Toronto agreed to a well-above-slot, $750K bonus for fifth-round outfielder Lane Thomas earlier today, who had been committed to Tennessee. The ability to sign Reid-Foley at slot value is a big boost to Toronto’s draft, as it will allow them to reallocate the savings from selecting Tommy John victim Jeff Hoffman with the ninth overall selection. Hoffman and Max Pentecost — Toronto’s other first-round selection — remain unsigned to this point.
Jordan Pacheco On Outright Waivers
JUNE 10: Pacheco is currently on outright waivers and will learn his fate in the next 48 hours, reports MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Any team will have the option to claim him (in order of reverse record starting with the NL and then moving to the AL). If not, the Rockies will be able to assign him outright to Triple-A Colorado Springs.
JUNE 4: The Rockies have designated catcher/infielder Jordan Pacheco for assignment, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter). Fellow backstop Michael McKenry will take his roster spot, while the club will also promote infielder Ryan Wheeler with star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez hitting the DL.
Pacheco, 28, has been a mainstay on the Colorado roster for much of the last two seasons, largely due to his defensive flexibility. He saw plenty of time at third in 2012, starting 80 times there and 35 times across the diamond, but last year played mostly at first while also shifting behind the dish at times. Entering 2014 as the reserve backstop, Pacheco has been limited to just 175 1/3 innings in the field thus far, and has taken only one start at a different position.
On the offensive side of the ledger, Pacheco has been unable to follow up on his solid 2012 campaign (.309/.341/.421 in 505 plate appearances). He struggled to a .588 OPS last year, and has slashed .236/.300/.347 through 80 plate appearances in 2014. Of course, all of those numbers reflect time spent at Coors Field; Pacheco’s lifetime wRC+ stands at just 76.
Royals To Sign Foster Griffin
The Royals have agreed to terms with first-round selection Foster Griffin on a $1.925MM signing bonus that is above the No. 28 overall selection’s assigned slot value of $1.815MM, reports MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter).
Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com ranked Griffin as the draft’s No. 28 prospect, while Baseball America ranked him 27th and ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 34th. A high school left-hander out of Orlando, Fla., Griffin had previously been committed to Ole Miss. Griffin, who stands 6’5″ and is listed at 190 pounds, sits in the low 90s with his heater and has touched 94 mph, per BA. Griffin’s changeup is ahead of his slider, per Callis and Mayo, though Law notes that he is a work in progress, mechanically speaking. Law calls him a potential No. 3 starter with a swing-man role or lefty specialist serving as his floow.
Griffin was the second left-handed pitcher selected in the first round by the Royals, who took TCU southpaw Brandon Finnegan 17th overall. Kansas City received the No. 28 selection as compensation for losing Ervin Santana to the Braves in free agency.
Pirates Promote Gregory Polanco
June 10: The Pirates have officially announced Polanco’s promotion via press release.
June 9: The Pirates have announced that Polanco will be called up prior to tomorrow’s game. A roster opening will be created with Neil Walker going to the 15-day DL after undergoing an appendectomy this evening.
Polanco also tweeted the news from his personal Twitter account. If he is activated tomorrow, Polanco could reach 111 days of MLB service this year, which would make him an unlikely Super Two candidate down the line.
June 4, 7:17pm: A Pirates official says that Polanco will not be called up Friday, specifying that sources saying otherwise are incorrect, according to Dan Zangrilli of 93.7 The Fan (via Twitter; hat tip to Biertempfel).
6:20pm: Two high-ranking club officials say there are no plans to promote Polanco for Friday, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review (via Twitter).
5:46pm: The Pirates will make the much-anticipated promotion of top outfield prospect Gregory Polanco in time to activate him for Friday’s game, reports Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports also reports that Polanco is set to join the Pirates on Friday, via Twitter.
Polanco, 22, entered the season as a consensus top-25 prospect league-wide — if not better. Baseball America pushed the toolsy Dominican into the top ten, while ESPN.com’s Keith Law and MLB.com both rated him inside of the top 15. Of course, that was before Polanco went on a rampage in his first real stint Triple-A this year, putting up a .351/.410/.547 line with 6 home runs and 14 steals and leading Law to move him up to the 3rd overall slot among current prospects.
Polanco is far from a bat-first prospect. Indeed, Law says that he features plus-plus defense at the center field position and gets a 70 grade on the basepaths. That is especially notable given that Polanco checks in at a robust 6’4 tall and 220 pounds.
Of course, Polanco is not likely to get a chance to play center in Pittsburgh, which already features a solid defender in Andrew McCutchen at that spot. Instead, like fellow outstanding youngster Starling Marte, he figures to slot in as one of the best corner outfield defenders in the game, combining with McCutchen for perhaps the game’s most exciting trio. The hope is that Polanco can provide an immediate upgrade in right for a team that has received precisely replacement-level production from the spot this year, even taking into account the unexpected outburst from Josh Harrison.
The call-up brings to an end the somewhat controversial stretch of time that Polanco spent at the highest minor league level this year. Many called for an earlier promotion, citing the Bucs’ struggles in right field and the fact that Pittsburgh reportedly offered Polanco a seven-year, $25MM contract extension before he even suited up for the big club. While it would be foolish to deny that Super Two considerations played a role, of course, it is worth bearing in mind that Polanco had taken all of nine plate appearances at the Triple-A level prior to this season, and had only posted a .762 OPS through 286 trips to the plate at Double-A.
Assuming that Polanco is officially added to the active MLB roster on Friday, he would stand to accumulate as many as 115 days of service this year. That is not likely to put him line for Super Two status, which has required anywhere from 2.122 to 2.146 days of service in recent years.
Pittsburgh stands to control Polanco through the 2020 season, and will likely not have to go through arbitration with him until 2018. The rest of the above-mentioned outfielders are controlled long-term as well: McCutchen has had his salary guaranteed through 2017 with a club option for another year, while Marte is under contract through 2019 with two more team options to follow. Given the team’s already-aggressive stance with regard to Polanco, and successful negotiations with his outfield mates, it would not be surprising to see the team look for another chance at a deal in the future.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Indians To Sign Second-Rounder Grant Hockin
The Indians have reached an agreement with second-round pick Grant Hockin on an above-slot $1.1MM bonus, according to MLB Daily Dish’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). The 61st overall selection in the draft had been assigned a value of $928.7K, according to Baseball America.
Opinions on the 6’3″, 195-pound Hockin varied, as ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him 49th among draft prospects, while MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo ranked Hockin 91st and Baseball America ranked him 109th in the draft. Law feels that Hockin, a client of MVP Sports Group, flashes four above-average pitches with a clean arm slot. BA feels that only three of his pitches have above-average potential, also noting that he doesn’t have a wipeout offering.
Hockin is the grandson of Hall of Fame slugger Harmon Killebrew, and has generated some media attention due to those impressive bloodlines. The California high school right-hander had committed to UCLA but will instead begin his pro career.
Blue Jays Sign Fifth-Rounder Thomas Above Slot
The Blue Jays announced today that they’ve agreed to terms with fifth-round pick Lane Thomas, and MLB.com’s Jim Callis tweets that Thomas will earn a hefty $750K bonus. That’s more than double the $343K value of Thomas’ No. 144 overall selection.
Thomas, a Tennessee commit, wasn’t ranked among MLB.com’s Top 200 draft prospects or the Top 100 of ESPN’s Keith Law, but Baseball America considered him the No. 172 prospect in this year’s draft class. BA praised the high school shortstop/center fielder’s athleticism, noting that many scouts believe he’s a true center fielder with plus speed once he’s underway. Others feel that his strong arm and athleticism will lend well to playing in the infield, per BA’s report. In his tweet, Callis noted that the Tennessee high schooler has solid “all-around tools.”
At $9,458,500, the Blue Jays possess Major League Baseball’s fourth-largest bonus pool this year (as reported by BA’s J.J. Cooper in April), and they figure to save some money after drafting Tommy John victim Jeff Hoffman with the ninth overall pick. Hoffman, once considered a slam-dunk Top 5 talent in the draft, slipped due to his injury and isn’t likely to require the full $3.08MM value of the No. 9 overall slot in order to sign.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam LaRoche
Consistency hasn’t exactly been Adam LaRoche‘s calling card over the past several years, but he’s timing one of his better seasons well, as he faces the strong likelihood of hitting the open market this offseason. LaRoche’s two-year deal with the Nationals contains a $15MM mutual option ($2MM buyout), but teams and players almost never agree to exercise both ends of a mutual option.
Typically, if a team exercises their half of the option, it’s because the player has had a strong season, leading the player to reject in search of more money on the open market. If the player exercises his half, it’s typically due to injury or poor performance, causing the team to reject. In LaRoche’s case, team dynamics come into play as well; Washington likely needs to open up first base for Ryan Zimmerman, whose persistent shoulder problems no longer allow him to handle third base.
As such, LaRoche seems likely to hit the open market, and he’s quietly on pace to do so as one of the most productive bats on the upcoming class. LaRoche is hitting .306/.417/.513 with eight homers, nine doubles and a 33-to-31 K/BB ratio in 192 plate appearances this season. Both his 16.1 percent walk rate and 17.2 percent strikeout rate are career-bests. He did miss 15 games with a quad injury earlier this year, though for now that looks to be behind him.
Ultimate Zone Rating has dinged him for his defense thus far, but Defensive Runs Saved feels that he’s on his way to his fifth straight season of plus defensive value. LaRoche has long had some problems with left-handed pitching, but he’s holding his own to this point with a .381 OBP against southpaws, and platoon problems certainly don’t bar some players from being paid.
LaRoche is set to turn 35 in November, but if he maintains the pace he’s currently on, it’s not hard to envision him landing another two-year deal, perhaps with some type of vesting option. His main competition will be Michael Morse, but aside from that, he’ll be competing against Corey Hart and Michael Cuddyer — both of whom have had significant injuries in 2014 already (and Cuddyer is a year older).
Billy Butler, too, could hit the open market if his option is declined by the Royals, but he’s in the midst of a poor season and likely couldn’t top LaRoche based on performance. Given the dearth of left-handed pop on next year’s free agent market — Kendrys Morales and Victor Martinez are the top alternatives, but both are more designated hitters than first basemen — LaRoche is in a good position despite his age.
It seems likely that his performance will be worthy of receiving a qualifying offer — believed to be in the $15MM range next offseason — but the need to open first for Zimmerman likely will prevent the Nats from extending one. LaRoche could look at a qualifying offer as merely receiving a $2MM raise for next season (he’d pocket the $2MM buyout of his option and still earn $15MM or so), which makes it a risk that Washington seems unlikely to take.
The knocks on LaRoche are well-known; his career OPS versus lefties is 114 points lower than his mark against right-handed pitching, age isn’t on his side and he hasn’t turned in a consecutive pair of well above-average offensive seasons since 2009-10 (122 OPS+ each year). Some teams likely will have the perception that a two-year deal will pay him for one strong season and one so-so campaign, and I’d imagine a number of clubs will be more interested on a one-year deal.
Nonetheless, LaRoche and agent Mike Milchin of Relativity Baseball appear to be in solid position as they look to lock down what could be the last significant contract of a solid offensive career. Morales recently received the pro-rated version of a $12MM salary after sitting out the first two months of the season, and Justin Morneau received a two-year, $12.5MM deal coming off a vastly inferior season to the one LaRoche is putting together.
Even if LaRoche simply finishes the season by hitting at his career pace — .266/.340/.475 — he’d finish with one of the best OPS+ marks of his career. In that instance, a two-year deal worth $10MM+ annually seems very attainable. The fact that he is facing very limited competition both at his position (first base) and in terms of his best skill (left-handed power) only strengthens LaRoche’s free agent outlook.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.