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Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $21.05MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2025 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded, as we saw last winter when the Orioles included their CBR-A pick to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package.

It is relatively rare to see teams from this group splurge on a big-ticket free agent, though Baltimore is expected to increase spending under new owner David Rubenstein.  The Tigers also have plenty of payroll space and could look to build more aggressively around their young core, after Detroit unexpectedly made a run to the ALDS this season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2025 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The White Sox and now the Cardinals are both rebuilding.  The Padres can never be ruled out of making a splashy signing, but that seems unlikely given how the team has a lot of its own impending free agents to address, plus San Diego made a point of getting under the luxury tax threshold last offseason.  Angels owner Arte Moreno has said his club plans to contend in 2025 and the payroll will go up, though that might not manifest itself in the form of signing a qualified free agent, given how often the Halos have been burned on such signings in the past.

Washington and Boston are both borderline candidates for a big free agent signing.  The Nats are still technically in rebuild mode themselves, but could decide that the time is right to add some major veteran help to an intriguing mix of younger players.  The Red Sox have generally eschewed pursuits of pricey free agents in recent years, though since they haven’t had a winning season since 2021, ownership might be again willing to be more aggressive in shopping at the high end of the market.

Team In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Jays and Cubs managed to sneak under the $237MM tax threshold.  Roster Resource has both teams slightly above the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Cubs slightly over and the Blue Jays slightly under, so given how narrow the margins are, we’ll wait until the league issues its numbers before putting the two clubs in either the previous category or the next category.

Needless to say, both clubs are hoping for a reset on their luxury tax status, and lesser penalties for signing QO-rejecting free agents.  The Jays and Cubs are also two of the teams facing the most pressure to win in 2025, and thus could be more open to making a big signing to help turn things around.  If MLB’s calculations reveal that Toronto and Chicago did exceed the threshold this year, they’ll join the next group of…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Astros GM Dana Brown has said his team “may have to get a little bit creative” with their spending given how many big contracts are already on the books.  The same could be said for the Phillies and Braves as well, but it is also easy to see both teams remaining aggressive after falling short in the playoffs.  The Rangers have a lot of money coming off the books but, given their uncertain broadcast revenue situation, could spend but still make a point of ducking back under the luxury tax line.  San Francisco will be an intriguing team to watch, now that Buster Posey is running the front office and how the Giants already spent big to keep a pending free agent in the fold by extending Matt Chapman.

Since re-signing Juan Soto or re-signing Teoscar Hernandez wouldn’t cost anything in QO penalties, keeping those sluggers is likely the top priority for the Yankees and Dodgers, with other free agents perhaps as backup plans if Soto or Hernandez signed elsewhere.  The Mets were relatively quiet in David Stearns’ first winter as president of baseball operations, some more big spending might be in the works if owner Steve Cohen wants to build on the club’s playoff run.

All this being said, the higher penalties for CBT payors can be deterrents to spending on qualified free agents in particular.  This doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t look to retain Soto or anything, but teams might prefer to make their big upgrades through trades, or perhaps with free agents who won’t have a QO attached to their services.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

Each Team’s Draft Compensation For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

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The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $21.05MM) to eligible free agents.  If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2024 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.

If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft.  (For instance, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract last winter.)  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.  The 2024 draft didn’t have of these latter selections, but in 2023, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.

The Brewers will surely issue Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are just as certain locks to extend QOs to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander.  Christian Walker also seems pretty likely to receive a QO from the Diamondbacks.  Michael Wacha is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and thus the Royals could well decide to issue a qualifying offer to the veteran righty.  Nick Martinez is a borderline candidate for a QO, just because $21.05MM is a steep price tag for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who might be best utilized as a swingman.  Martinez is another player facing a decision on a player option, as he can opt out and leave $12MM on the table to again pursue free agency.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).  The Angels qualified for this bracket in 2023 by just barely squeezing under the tax line, thus enabling the team to receive the 74th overall pick as compensation when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.

This year’s free agent class offers a few borderline QO candidates from these six teams.  Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego’s Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim could conceivably get qualifying offers, though the teams could be weighing the pros and cons right up to the QO deadline.  In Kim’s case, the Padres will want all the information they can get about how the shortstop is faring in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.

Teams In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

It should be noted that these lists of teams and their Competitive Balance Tax status won’t be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December.  It usually isn’t too difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $237MM tax threshold, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season.  MLB’s internal calculations could differ, however, or factor in some salary data that isn’t publicly known, so we won’t know for a while yet if Toronto and/or Chicago are tax payors or not.

The Cubs are just barely past the $237MM tax line in the view of both public websites — RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at slightly above $238.4MM and Cot’s has an even closer call of $237.2MM.  The two sites split when it comes to the Blue Jays, as RR has them over the threshold at roughly $240.4MM, while Cot’s has the Jays under the threshold at around $234.98MM.

While this tax status may impact whether or not the Cubs and Blue Jays will pursue any QO-rejecting free agents, it’s a bit of a moot point here, as neither club has any free agents who seem like viable candidates for a qualifying offer.  If Cody Bellinger exercises his opt-out clause, Chicago can’t issue him a QO since Bellinger already received one in the past.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft.  In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th, and 136th overall picks.

Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves), and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers.  The Mets could also weigh offers for Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, with Manaea seen as very likely to opt out of the final year of his contract with New York.

Red Sox Notes: Coaching Staff, Front Office, Fulmer

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While free agency won’t open for a few more weeks at this point, the Red Sox already have plenty of work on their offseason to-do list. Earlier this month it was reported that several changes were coming to the club’s coaching staff, and Sean McAdam of MassLive.com recently floated a possible name for the job of assistant hitting coach: Dillon Lawson, who has spent the past year as chief baseball office Craig Breslow’s minor league hitting coordinator.

Prior to joining the Red Sox last winter, Lawson had worked as a hitting coach in the minor leagues for the Astros and Royals until he joined the Yankees in 2018. Lawson started out as the club’s minor league hitting coordinator, the same role he has now with Boston, before being promoted to the role of hitting coach prior to the 2022 season. Lawson lasted just a season and a half in the role before being fired mid-way through the 2023 season, the first time the Yankees fired a coach midseason since 1998.

Despite that unfortunate piece of trivia, however, it’s fair to note that it’s unclear how much blame Lawson really deserved to shoulder for the club’s offensive woes in 2023. After all, the club’s wRC+ after firing Lawson (90) was actually slightly worse than it was under Lawson’s guidance (93), suggesting that the club’s struggles may have been due to lackluster performances from individual veterans such as Kyle Higashioka, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu. Regardless of who is to blame for New York’s struggles on offense last year, the Red Sox were clearly pleased by Lawson’s work with the club’s young players in the upper minors this year if they’re considering him for a role with the big league coaching staff.

Shifting focus towards the front office, McAdam also notes that there’s an apparent top candidate for the as-of-yet-unfilled GM role directly below Breslow in the club’s baseball operations hierarchy. Per McAdam, there’s “little doubt” that the top internal candidate for the role is assistant GM Paul Toboni, who was promoted to his current position back in January after previously acting as the club’s VP of amateur scouting and player development to become one of four assistant GMs below Breslow, joining Raquel Ferreira, Eddie Romero and Mike Groopman.

McAdam adds that an executive with another club suggested that Toboni could be highly sought-after by rival organizations if the club were to settle on another candidate for the GM role. An internal candidate to replace Chaim Bloom as chief baseball officer before the club settled upon hiring Breslow, it’s possible that Toboni could receive interest from another club such as the Giants (who are in the midst of their own GM search) or Twins (who recently parted ways with GM Thad Levine) in the event that Breslow ultimately settles on an external candidate to act as his second-in-command with the Red Sox.

Turning back towards the players on the field, McAdam also notes that the Rule 5 protection deadline next month will come with a number of decisions for the Red Sox. It’s hardly uncommon for a club to face tough calls about whether to add a prospect to their 40-man roster or risk leaving them exposed to that winter’s Rule 5 draft, but Boston has one particularly unusual candidate for protection: veteran right-hander Michael Fulmer. Fulmer signed with the Red Sox on a two-year minor league deal last winter after undergoing surgery on his UCL and appears to be on track to be ready for Spring Training in February.

The 31-year-old’s unique situation as an experienced big leaguer with a solid 3.55 ERA since moving to the bullpen back in 2021 would make him a very attractive addition to the majority of clubs’ bullpen mix, as he could be added without the uncertainty that surrounds typical Rule 5 picks that are plucked out of the minors without any big league experience under their belts. Given Fulmer’s big league experience and the fact that he has more than enough service time to reject an optional assignment to the minors anyway, opposing clubs would shoulder relatively minimal risk if they decided to select Fulmer, meaning the Red Sox will likely have to add him to their 40-man roster next month if they hope to retain him for 2025.

Orioles Notes: Bautista, Rogers, Anderson

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The Orioles enter the 2024-25 offseason on the heels of a disappointing end to their season where they fell out of the AL East race late in the year before failing to win a playoff game against the Royals during the Wild Card Series. While that disappointing end to the season in conjunction with the impending free agencies of key pieces like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander is surely worrisome for fans in Baltimore, there is one major silver lining regarding the club’s 2025 outlook: the impending return of closer Felix Bautista

Bautista, 29, was perhaps the single most dominant bullpen arm on the planet in 2023 when he made his first career All-Star appearance and pitched to a jaw-dropping 1.48 ERA with a 1.88 FIP with a ridiculous 46.4% strikeout rate in 61 innings of work. Unfortunately, the dominant closer underwent Tommy John surgery in early October of last year and missed not only the 2023 postseason but all of 2024, as well. He figures to be back on the mound for Baltimore in 2025, though, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko relayed earlier today that Bautista is currently on track to be “full-go” in time for Spring Training in February. That’s a great sign for the Orioles, particularly given the fact that their bullpen took a major step back this past year as they tried to replace Bautista in the closer role with veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who pitched quite well in the first half of the season but fell apart in mid-July, surrendering an 11.50 ERA with a 7.44 FIP in his final 18 innings of work before being designated for assignment in September.

Bautista may not be the only boost the club’s bullpen gets entering next year, either. The Orioles paid a hefty price to acquire lefty Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, surrendering well-regarded youngsters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to seal the deal. Rogers struggled badly in his first taste of action with the Orioles, however, surrendering 16 runs (15 earned) in 19 innings of work across four starts with the team before being demoted to Triple-A. That brutal stint in the club’s rotation raised some questions about the club’s future plans for Rogers, who is under control via arbitration through the end of the 2026 season. Kubatko offered some insight on the club’s thinking, noting that while the Orioles have not yet given up on the possibility that Rogers can pitch in the rotation the club also figures to weigh the value he could bring to the club as a long reliever.

That makes Rogers one of a handful of potential rotation options who will be fighting for a role with the big league club next spring. Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer all seem like to be part of the club’s rotation on Opening Day 2025, leaving two spots up for grabs. It seems likely that the Orioles will pursue an external addition either via free agency or on the trade market to fill at least one of those spots, but the club does have a handful of internal options for the back of their rotation even beyond Rogers. Albert Suarez enjoyed something of a breakout season in a swing role with the club at age-34, pitching to a solid 3.70 ERA in 133 2/3 innings of work this year while drawing 24 starts and making an additional eight relief appearances.

Other factors in the club’s rotation mix, if not out of Spring Training then at some point in 2025, figure to be youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, both of whom made their big league debuts in 2024 to somewhat lackluster results. McDermott surrendered three runs on five hits (including a homer) and two walks while striking out three in four innings of work during his lone big league appearance this year, while Povich surrendered a 5.20 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in sixteen starts with the Orioles this year. Despite those bumpy debuts, however, the youngsters could still be utilized either as depth in the rotation or as long relief options out of the bullpen should they fail to earn a spot in the rotation out of camp this spring.

One other potential bullpen arm Kubatko suggests could be worth keeping an eye on is veteran right-hander Nick Anderson. Anderson, 34, was once a highly-regarded hurler for the Rays but missed time in recent years due to elbow surgery, plantar fasciitis, and shoulder issues. He pitched 35 2/3 innings for the Royals this year with a middling 4.04 ERA but a worrisome 5.06 FIP before being released by the Royals in late July. Anderson joined the Orioles on a minor league deal in the final days of August, but made just two appearances at the Triple-A level before being sidelined due to an injury and ultimately failed to make the big league club. While Anderson is currently scheduled to reach free agency following the World Series, Kubatko suggests that the club could look to re-sign him, presumably on a fresh minor league deal.

Scott Sharp Withdraws Name From Giants’ GM Search

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As the Giants continue their search for a new GM to take over for Pete Putila and serve as Buster Posey’s second-in-command following his installation as president of baseball operations, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that one name under consideration has withdrawn himself from the mix for the job: Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, who Rosenthal notes is removing himself from the pool of candidates due to family considerations.

Sharp, 51, currently serves as a senior vice president and assistant GM for Kansas City. The longtime Royals exec got his start in the club as a the club’s assistant director of player development in 2006 and since then has steadily climbed the organizational ladder, also serving as the director of minor league operations and director of player development in Kansas City before eventually becoming assistant GM in 2015. Prior to his time with the Royals, Sharp served as a scout for the Pirates, Dodgers, and Rangers organizations.

That strong background in player development is likely the reason the Giants had interest in Sharp for their GM role. As Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle noted this past week, Posey has made it clear that he’s looking for a candidate with an extensive scouting background for the GM role. That’s led the Giants to pursue plenty of candidates with resumes similar to the one Sharp brings to the table, including Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, former Dodgers VP of amateur scouting Logan White, and former Nationals director of player development De Jon Watson.

Posey’s desire for a GM with a strong background in scouting is sensible given his own relative inexperience on the front office side of the baseball world; the 37-year-old is just three seasons removed from his playing career and since then has served on the club’s board of directors after purchasing a minority share in the club two years ago. While he’s had a hand in the club’s operations since then, working to recruit free agents and even taking on a significant role in the recent extension negotiations with third baseman Matt Chapman, it’s unclear how much of a hand Posey had in the day-to-day operations of the Giants prior to his ascent to the president of baseball operations gig. With that being said, Slusser indicates that experience in contract negotiations and arbitration hearings isn’t necessary for Posey’s GM given assistant GM Jeremy Shelley’s experience in that role.

Turning back to Sharp, it seems as though the longtime Royals exec may only be interested in making a change if he would be stepping into an opportunity to lead an organization. Rosenthal’s report suggests that Sharp has interest in leading baseball operations for an organization at some point in the future, though it’s unclear whether or not the fact that he would answer to Posey was a factor in his decision to withdraw his name from consideration for the Giants’ GM job. For the time being, however, it seems that Sharp is content to remain with the Royals on the heels of a surprising 86-win campaign that saw the club return to the postseason for the first time since their 2015 World Series championship.

Could The Twins Deal From Their Positional Depth This Winter?

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Despite a lackluster 82-80 record in 2024 fueled by a September collapse that saw the club go just 9-18 during the season’s final month, the Twins are nonetheless poised to enter the coming offseason with one of the deepest groups of position players in the majors. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, utility man Kyle Farmer, and outfielders Max Kepler and Manuel Margot all appear ticketed for free agency, but even after those departures Minnesota figures to have more potentially starting-caliber position players than it can fit in the lineup.

Of course, an excess of talent is never a bad thing. That’s particularly true for a Twins club that relies on Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis as key players despite their substantial injury histories. With that being said, strong showings from players like Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner in 2024 figure to open the door to more regular playing time while the likes of Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Austin Martin remain bench options.

In addition, 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee has nothing left to prove at Triple-A even after struggling through his first taste of big league action, while top outfield prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins both reached the upper levels of the minors with late-season call-ups to Triple-A and Double-A respectively. While it’s unlikely that Jenkins cracks the big league roster in 2025, Lee should be expected to be part of the major league positional group after appearing in 50 games this year and it’s not hard to imagine Rodriguez finding himself in the majors sometime next year either.

While the club’s positional group certainly has its flaws, they nonetheless came together to post a 107 wRC+ that ranked ninth in the majors and placed them right in line with other playoff-caliber offenses like those in Philadelphia (108 wRC+) and Queens (109 wRC+). That could suggest the Twins would be best served leaving their hitting corps largely in tact this winter, but doing so would pose a major problem; the club is expected to have virtually no money to spend this winter, and the pitching staff is in desperate need of improvements.

RosterResource projects the club for a $139MM payroll as things stand headed into next year, and while The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman notes that club officials have suggested payroll won’t be cut in 2025 relative to the already-diminished levels it landed at in 2024, this past season’s payroll stood at just $130MM. That means the Twins likely need to trim payroll by nearly $10MM even before factoring in the needs of the club’s pitching staff. While Gleeman floats trades of relatively pricey veterans such as right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez, who are due a combined $17.5MM in 2025, but Gleeman suggests that convincing a team to take on either of those salaries in full could require the club to attach some amount of prospect capital in order to get a deal done.

Given those considerable restrictions, the Twins may need to get creative to make significant additions to their pitching staff. Perhaps that could mean parting ways with versatile utility man Willi Castro, who has impressed with 5.6 fWAR and a 108 wRC+ during his two years with Minnesota while playing every position on the diamond except catcher and first base. Valuable as Castro has been for the club, he’s set to become a free agent following the 2025 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz to make $6.2MM in his final trip through arbitration this winter. That price tag combined with a lack of long-term club control could make Castro expendable for the Twins, and his better-than-average bat in conjunction with the ability to play capable defense all over the diamond (including shortstop and center field) should make him an attractive piece to virtually any club looking to add to its positional corps.

Of course, another option would be to deal a controllable player who offers less in salary relief but could either bring back a larger return or be parted with fairly painlessly. Dealing away Kirilloff would undoubtedly be selling low on a former first-round pick, but would save the club his projected $1.8MM salary and could theoretically bring back an arm to deepen a lackluster bullpen that ranked just 19th in the majors by ERA despite solid work from the club’s back-end duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Alternatively, it’s possible to imagine the club parting ways with an aforementioned breakout piece such as Larnach or Miranda if they believe this winter to be an opportunity to sell high on a player who has been inconsistent to this point in their major league career, with such a move being particularly palatable if the club believes a rebound season is coming for a hitter who struggled in 2024 like Kirilloff or Julien. It’s possible that parting ways with one of the club’s more promising young players could allow them to bring in a capable rotation piece, bolstering a starting staff that ranked just 22nd in the majors last year despite respectable rookie performances from youngsters like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa.

Rockies To Lower Payroll In 2025

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In an article earlier today examining the Rockies’ plans for the upcoming offseason, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reported that the club intends to lower their payroll headed into the 2025 campaign. Per Saunders, those plans to lower payroll come with an expectation that the club will shop second baseman Brendan Rodgers, lefty starter Austin Gomber, and righty starter Cal Quantrill on the trade market this winter.

The news surely comes as a frustrating turn of events for Rockies fans as the club comes off its second consecutive season with more than 100 losses. While the club enjoyed encouraging steps forward for young players like Michael Toglia, Brenton Doyle, Ezequiel Tovar, and Ryan Feltner, that positive momentum was in some ways offset by a major step back for 2023 standout Nolan Jones and the retirement of stalwart DH Charlie Blackmon. Now, a lowered payroll and the likely departure of three stable regulars from the club’s roster leave the Rockies with even more question marks ahead of an offseason that already featured plenty of uncertainty.

While Saunders doesn’t get into specific numbers regarding the club’s payroll plans for 2025, he does note that the club’s $147.3MM payroll for 2024 is expected to come down next year even after factoring in the departure of Blackmon, who made $13MM this year. That would suggest a payroll that maxes out in the $130MM range and could ultimately clock in somewhere below even that diminished figure. That leaves the Rockies with very little room to maneuver this winter given that RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just a hair under $130MM in 2025 already.

Given that, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the club would look to trade some of its more expensive arbitration level players like Rodgers, Gomber, and Quantrill. The trio is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz to make a combined $20.1MM in their final trips through arbitration this year. The bulk of that comes from a $9MM salary due to Quantrill, who Saunders suggests the Rockies are more likely to move on from than Gomber. Trading Quantrill and Gomber would free up a combined $14.6MM in the club’s budget but also give the club the opportunity to open up starts for young hurlers Saunders notes the Rockies see as knocking on the door of the majors, including ninth-overall pick of last year’s draft Chase Dollander as well as southpaws Sean Sullivan and Carson Palmquist,

Quantrill and Gomber were both the subject of trade rumors prior to this summer’s deadline, though neither ultimately wound up changing teams. As the pair head into their final seasons of arbitration eligibility, Quantrill has more big league success on his resume of the two. The right-hander put up fantastic numbers in Cleveland from 2021 to 2022, first as a swing man and then as a full-time starter. Across those two seasons, Quantrill pitched to a 3.16 ERA with a 4.10 FIP in 72 appearances, including 54 starts. With that being said, however, the righty’s 2023 season with the Guardians left much to be desired (5.24 ERA in 19 starts) and led the club to designate him for assignment last November, at which point he was dealt to the Rockies.

Quantrill’s 2024 campaign in Colorado was something of a mixed bag. The righty managed to make 29 starts and throw 148 1/3 innings, and his 4.98 ERA was roughly league average (93 ERA+) after factoring in the inflated offensive environment at Coors Field. With that being said, Quantrill also posted the highest walk rate (10.5%) of his career against a below-average 16.8% strikeout rate. Making matters more concerning for potential suitors on the trade market is the fact that Quantrill not only didn’t pitch significantly better away from Coors Field this year, he was actually slightly worse on the road with a 5.04 ERA in 15 away starts. Quantrill’s lackluster overall numbers come in large part thanks to a brutal second half that saw him surrender a 7.94 ERA in his final eight starts of the year before he was sidelined at the start of September by triceps inflammation, leaving plenty of question marks regarding what can be expected from him in 2025.

Gomber’s 2024 campaign was similar to Quantrill’s in many ways. He made 30 starts for the first time in his career and threw a career-high 165 innings, and his 4.75 ERA (97 ERA+) was roughly league average when factoring in the inflated offense in Colorado. Gomber’s strikeout rate (16.7%) was also lackluster, though Gomber does have a few notable advantages that could make him more attractive to potential trade partners. For one thing, he held opposing hitters to an excellent 5.5% walk rate, good for the ninth-lowest figure among all qualified starters this year. Additionally, Gomber’s performance in away games was much stronger than Quantrill’s as his ERA went down from 4.97 in home games to 4.55 on the road. Those positive factors combined with Gomber’s reasonable $5.6MM salary projection for next year could make him an attractive trade target for clubs in need of cost-controlled pitching next year.

Rodgers could prove to be the most attractive trade piece of the trio. The 28-year-old has generally been a roughly league average bat in recent years, slashing a solid .270/.321/.421 since the start of the 2021 season. That’s good for a 91 wRC+ after adjusting for the park factors Rodgers benefits from at Coors, but his value isn’t tied exclusively to his bat as he’s also a quality defender at second base. Rodgers won the NL Gold Glove award for his work at the keystone in 2022 thanks to an eye-popping +22 Defensive Runs Saved, though after he missed much of the 2023 season due to shoulder surgery he hasn’t looked quite the same this year with a lackluster -4 DRS and a similar -3 Outs Above Average. Even so, Rodgers is a solid if unspectacular regular at second base who could provide a relatively cheap, stable option for a club without a clear solution at the position.

Assuming the Rockies are able to clear enough payroll off the books this winter to make additions, Saunders notes that a hitter who can provide consistency in their lineup and a veteran reliever are both near the top of their list of priorities this winter. With Blackmon vacating the DH spot and no player clearly locked into the outfield alongside Jones and Doyle for 2025, it should be fairly easy for the club to work a relatively inexpensive corner bat into their lineup this winter, and it’s not difficult to find veteran bullpen help on the cheap either in most offseasons.

Beyond those goals, Saunders notes one specific name the club figures to target in free agency this winter is catcher Jacob Stallings, who enjoyed a strong rebound campaign with the Rockies after being non-tendered by the Marlins last winter. Per Saunders, the Rockies want to give young catchers Drew Romo and Hunter Goodman room to develop at the big league level but could still to turn Stallings as they look to bridge the gap for their young backstops. Stallings slashed an excellent .263/.357/.453 (114 wRC+) in 82 games with Colorado this year, although that came with defensive metrics that were a far cry from the work that earned him the NL Gold Glove at catcher in 2021.

Postseason Notes: Dodgers, Cortes, Senga

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The Dodgers are headed back to L.A. for Game 6 of the NLCS with a 3-2 lead, but the club nonetheless faces some question marks regarding who exactly they’ll have available tomorrow. Catcher Will Smith departed Game 5 early after taking a pitch off of his glove hand during the game, but per Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times x-rays on Smith’s hand came back negative and he’s expected to be available for Game 6. That’s surely a relief for the Dodgers, given that Smith (111 wRC+) is a massive improvement over back-up Austin Barnes (86 wRC+) with the bat.

Unfortunately, things are less certain regarding first baseman Freddie Freeman. The veteran star has struggled at the dish of late while playing through a sprained ankle, with just one hit in his last 15 at-bats. While Jack Harris of the L.A. Times notes that manager Dave Roberts noted that Freeman is expected to play in tomorrow’s game just as Smith is, there was more uncertainty regarding Freeman’s availability as Roberts said he did not plan to decide if Freeman will start today and that whether or not he’s in the lineup tomorrow will be determined by how the veteran feels tomorrow. Should Freeman wind up missing tomorrow’s game, Max Muncy would likely slide from third base to first, opening up the hot corner for Enrique Hernandez and center field for Andy Pages.

More from around the playoff clubs…

  • Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes was left off the club’s roster for the ALCS as he rehabs a late-season flexor strain that’s left him sidelined for nearly a month now. Fortunately, Cortes now appears closer than ever to a return to action. As noted by The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner, the southpaw has continued to progress well and figures to have just one hurdle left to clear in his rehab: a live bullpen session in the coming days. If Cortes gets through that bullpen successfully, Kirschner suggests that Cortes is “expected” to be on the club’s World Series roster should they advance. The return of Cortes would surely be a huge boost to the Yankees’ bullpen mix, particularly after they lost right-hander Ian Hamilton for the World Series yesterday due to a calf injury. Cortes would also add another lefty option to the club’s relief corps. The club currently only features Tim Hill and Tim Mayza as lefty relief options, the latter has allowed four of eight batters to reach base to this point in the postseason.
  • Moving on to the Mets, the club opted to give the ball to left-hander David Peterson rather than right-hander Kodai Senga in Game 5 yesterday, and that decision seems to leave the door open to a role change for Senga late in the series. As relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters today that he “won’t hesitate” to hand Senga the ball in a relief role in tomorrow’s game despite Senga having been exclusively used as a starter throughout his MLB career to this point. With Senga evidently available out of the pen, the Mets may have a potentially dynamic relief weapon on their hands who’s capable of pitching multiple innings as a bridge to closer Edwin Diaz. Of course, that would require Senga to have ironed out the issues that saw him walk four batters and allow three runs in 1 1/3 innings of work against the Dodgers earlier in this series.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Last offseason, the Brewers lost their manager, traded away their best starting pitcher and lost another to injury. During the season, several more injuries popped up but the club overcame all that adversity to repeat as National League Central champions. They'll now have to overcome a crushing postseason loss, the likely departure of their shortstop and declining broadcast revenue.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $110.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout on '29 mutual option; deal to be paid out through '42 due to deferrals)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $78MM through 2031 (including $2MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $17.25MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Brandon Woodruff, RHP: $15MM through 2025 (including $10MM buyout on '26 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • 1B Rhys Hoskins has $18MM player option for 2025 with $4MM buyout, deal also has $18MM mutual option for 2026 with $4MM buyout
  • Team, RHP Frankie Montas hold $20MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
  • Team, LHP Wade Miley hold $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Team holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Devin Williams with a $250K buyout (Williams can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)
  • Team, C Gary Sánchez hold $11MM mutual option with $4MM buyout
  • Team holds $5.5MM club option on RHP Colin Rea with $1MM buyout
  • Team holds $8MM club option on RHP Freddy Peralta with $1.5MM buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $92.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $265MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Bauers, Wilson, Haase

Free Agents

The Brewers have faced a lot of challenges in the past year. Manager Craig Counsell seemed intent on pushing forward the market for managers, willing to go from Milwaukee to the highest bidder. For a small-market club like the Brewers, they weren't going to get drawn into a bidding war to keep him, so he went to the division rival Cubs as Milwaukee gave his old job to Pat Murphy. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery about this time last year, which put him on ice for all of 2024. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Some of that was self-imposed, in a sense, but also a reflection of the club's perpetual financial situation. As one of the lower-spending clubs, they often trade their best players just before they get to free agency, with Burnes just the most recent example. That's not to say they were forced to do it, but it's understandable why they make such moves. The trade return is usually much more appealing than holding the player all the way until free agency and, in a best-case scenario, recouping draft compensation after the player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

All of that was before the season even started. Once spring training began, the challenges mounted. Closer Devin Williams was diagnosed with back fractures in March, setting him up to miss roughly the first half of the season. Wade Miley required Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season prematurely. Robert Gasser, called up to help cover for Miley, required his own UCL surgery in June. Christian Yelich didn't play after July 23 due to his lingering back problems, undergoing season-ending surgery in August.

Despite all of that, the Brewers managed to take the division, but fresh challenges now lie ahead. Shortstop Willy Adames is slated to become a free agent, a notable subtraction from their roster. Williams seems likely to be this year's candidate for a trade before reaching free agency, with general manager Matt Arnold recently admitting that the club will have to be "open-minded" about the possibility.

Meanwhile, the club will no longer have a broadcast relationship with Bally Sports/Diamond Sports Group. Their deal with Diamond ended in 2024 and they will now have Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts in direct-to-consumer fashion. Such an arrangement could be beneficial in the long run with the decay of the cable model but it's likely to lead to less revenue in the short term, which could further squeeze a club that always has payroll concerns.

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Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Christian Walker?
Yes, make Walker a $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. 71.47% (2,918 votes)
No, allow Walker to enter free agency without making a Qualifying Offer. 28.53% (1,165 votes)
Total Votes: 4,083

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