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Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Christian Walker?
Yes, make Walker a $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. 71.47% (2,918 votes)
No, allow Walker to enter free agency without making a Qualifying Offer. 28.53% (1,165 votes)
Total Votes: 4,083

AL East Notes: Rubenstein, Orioles, German, Rays, Red Sox

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“I’m now 75 years old.  It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years,” Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein said in a recent interview with NPR (hat tip to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).  “So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”

This might be one of the clearer indications yet that the Orioles are in for their busiest offseasons in a long time, especially since the team is now coming off a pair of playoff appearances with nary a single win from five total postseason games.  This is Rubenstein’s first winter since his ownership bought the team, and as GM Mike Elias implied during his end-of-season press conference, the O’s will have a lot more to spend than in recent years during the club’s rebuild, when the Angelos family was still in charge.

More from around the AL East….

  • Sticking with the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “had no interest” in right-hander Domingo German in the past, which runs contrary to a report from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez from last January.  German signed with the Pirates on a minors contract last winter and had only a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances and 20 2/3 innings on the big league roster in 2024.  Pittsburgh outrighted German off its 40-man roster in September and he elected free agency earlier this week.  Given his poor recent results and his troubled off-the-field history, it remains to be seen if any MLB teams will take a flier on German for another minor league deal.
  • The top Rays story remains the team’s likely need for a new temporary home to begin the 2025 season, as Tropicana Field sustained heavy damage due to Hurricane Milton.  John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times shares some details about the insurance policies attached to the stadium, and the possibility that the city of St. Petersburg (which is funding the repairs) might simply decide that repairing the Trop isn’t worth it since the Rays’ new ballpark is set to open in 2028.  “We’re going to try to figure out every avenue, both through insurance and otherwise, to try to make sure the Rays have a place to play in St. Petersburg.  But we’re going to make sure that it’s a financially responsible decision,” city council member Copley Gerdes said.  Romano opines that Orlando might check off the most boxes as the Rays’ interim home, as the team could play at the 9500-seat stadium on the ESPN Wide World Of Sports complex at Walt Disney World.
  • The Red Sox promoted Kyle Boddy to the role of director of baseball science on an interim basis, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via X).  The position appears to be a newly-created job within the Sox front office, as Brad Alberts is credited in the team’s directory as the “team lead” of baseball sciences, but there is no director position.  Boddy founded the data-based Driveline Baseball training facility in 2012, and then moved into an official role with a big league club when he was the Reds’ pitching coordinator for the majority of the 2020-21 seasons.  The Red Sox brought Boddy aboard last January as an advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Extension Candidate: Riley Greene

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As noted in the Tigers’ Offseason Outlook piece, the club has a lot of payroll flexibility, even with continued uncertainty about its future broadcasting contracts.  Javier Baez and Colt Keith are the only Tigers players guaranteed money beyond the 2025 season, and that duo combines for $28MM in both 2026 and 2027.

Tarik Skubal will continue to get expensive through his two remaining seasons of arbitration control, but at a projected $8MM in 2025, even another big jump up to $16MM in 2026 is still a discount for a superstar pitcher.  Jason Foley’s arb number will keep rising if he keeps posting saves, but Foley is only arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.  Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson won’t hit arb-eligibility until 2026, and the likes of Parker Meadows and Reese Olson will still be in their pre-arb years.

In short, there should be plenty of payroll space for Detroit to seek out some star talent this winter as the team looks to build on its surprise run to the ALDS.  Beyond just external additions, the Tigers may well also look to lock up some of its young cornerstones, such as All-Star outfielder Riley Greene.

Selected fifth overall in the 2019 draft, Greene has long been viewed as a key piece of Detroit’s rebuilding efforts.  He was a consensus top-six prospect in all of baseball heading into the 2022 season, when Greene made his Major League debut and hit .253/.321/.362 in his first 418 plate appearances in the Show.  The development continued with 11 homers and a .288/.349/.447 slash line in 416 PA in 2023, though Greene’s playing time was limited by some notable injuries.  He suffered a stress reaction in his left fibula that cost him over a month of action, and he didn’t play after September 1 due to a right elbow problem that eventually required a Tommy John surgery.

2024 wasn’t an entirely healthy season either for Greene, as he missed just shy of four weeks due to a hamstring strain.  However, he still achieved his best season yet, hitting .262/.348/.479 with 25 home runs over 584 PA, translating into a 135 wRC+.  Most importantly, Greene’s return from the injured list on August 18 helped the Tigers spark their already-legendary late-season surge.  Detroit went 31-13 over its last 44 games, going from also-rans to a wild card berth in a manner of weeks.

Greene’s production after his IL stint (.786 OPS) wasn’t as strong as his .842 OPS pre-injury, and he hit only .231/.355/.269 over 31 PA in the postseason.  Still, Greene’s importance to Detroit’s lineup can’t be overstated, as he was easily the Tigers’ most consistent overall hitter.  Keith and Meadows didn’t start to contribute much at the plate until later in the season, and Carpenter was limited by both injury (about 2.5 months missed due to a lumbar spine stress fracture) and a lack of production against left-handed pitching.

Beyond the bottom-line numbers, Greene made some big gains on the advanced-metric front.  He went from 30 barrels and an 11.3% barrel rate in 2023 to 48 barrels and a 13.4% barrel rate this season, putting him in the 87th and 90th percentile of all hitters in each respective category.  Greene’s walk rate made a seismic leap up to 11%, far beyond his 8.4BB% in 2023 that was slightly below the league average.  While Greene still strikes out a lot, he at least did a better job of laying off pitches outside the zone, with a very impressive 23.1% chase rate.  Greene’s .329 BABIP indicated that he still received a good deal of batted-ball luck, but that number was well beneath the .369 BABIP he posted in 2022-23.

Defensively, Greene’ struggles in center field and Meadows’ excellent glovework up the middle necessitated a position change near the end of Greene’s 2023 campaign.  Greene was installed as the everyday left fielder this season and became a big defensive asset, with +14 Defensive Runs Saved, +4 Outs Above Average, and a +11.7 UZR/150 over 700 2/3 innings in left.  Between Meadows’ presence and top prospect Max Clark also viewed as a center field-capable outfielder, it looks like Greene will be staying in left field for the foreseeable future, which isn’t an issue since his bat plays at the position.  Comerica Park’s spacious outfield demands more from Tigers outfielders regardless of position, so Greene’s ability to deliver plus glovework in left field is no small feat.

There’s a whole lot to like about Greene’s early-career results, and he only just turned 24 years old in late September.  Barring a very low Super Two cutoff point, Greene won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, and thus he’ll remain an immense bargain on a pre-arb minimal salary next season.

With four full years of team control over Greene, the Tigers might not feel too much pressure to work out an extension just yet.  Greene’s injury history might stand out to the team as a bit of a red flag, between the hamstring and tibula problems, the TJ surgery, and the broken foot Greene suffered in Spring Training 2022.  That said, those injuries might also lower Greene’s price point to some limited extent, and the outfielder could be more open to locking in some guaranteed money if he has any lingering concerns about his durability.

A pretty wide variance exists amidst the recent extensions signed by players within two and three years of MLB service time, with the highest end of those extensions represented by the mega-deals signed by Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.  Greene’s representatives at Apex Baseball certainly might argue that their client is closer to those two in terms of meriting face-of-the-franchise types of salaries, but some pretty key differences exist.  Tatis was 22 at the time of his extension, while Witt (who is a little over three months older than Greene) plays the more premium position of shortstop.

Greene is currently slated to hit free agency entering his age-28 season, right in the midst of his prime years and on pace to land a huge contract if he keeps up his current form.  A big extension lasting a decade or more would hold obvious appeal to him, but conversely, an extension that covers only Detroit’s four remaining years of control might also be of interest — Greene could pick up a guaranteed payday that doesn’t change his free agent timeline.  The Tigers would get some cost certainty through Greene’s arbitration years, but such a “bridge contract” scenario might be seen as a placeholder for the team, since the Tigers would certainly want at least a couple of free agent years covered if they’re making such a longer-term commitment.

Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM extension with the Astros probably represents the floor of what Greene figures to land in an extension.  Alvarez signed that deal just a few weeks shy of his 25th birthday, and with three-plus seasons of hitting at level above even what Greene delivered in 2024.  Alvarez also had injury concerns (he missed almost all of the 2020 season due to surgeries on both knees) of a more significant nature than Greene, and Alvarez was already viewed at the time as more of a DH than a left fielder.  Greene’s much higher defensive ceiling offsets Alvarez’s better hitting, and it should be noted that the length of Alvarez’s contract hit the unofficial six-year limit that Astros owner Jim Crane is known to enforce on his organization’s contracts.

The Tigers have no such known limit on contracts, so a Greene extension could certainly (and likely would) exceed six years.  It’s still something of a mystery as to how president of baseball operations Scott Harris or owner Chris Ilitch would approach such a longer-term deal, as Greene’s extension would represent a new frontier for the organization as it comes out of its rebuild.  Keith’s six-year, $28.6425MM deal from last January is the only extension signed in Harris’ two years as Detroit’s PBO, and that contract is wholly different from Greene’s situation since Keith had yet to even make his Major League debut.

That being said, extending a player before his debut is an aggressive move in its own right, which could hint that Harris will be proactive in trying to retain players he views as central to the Tigers’ long-term plans.  Skubal’s two years of control makes him a more immediate concern than Greene, yet since Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, the Tigers might view Greene as the likelier of the two young stars to be open to a multi-year pact.

As noted earlier, an extension doesn’t need to happen in the near future.  Waiting at least another season might help both parties anyway, since another big season only raises Greene’s price tag, but by the same logic would also make the Tigers a little more comfortable about splurging on something like a decade-long extension worth well north of $200MM.  With a pretty clean set of financial books right now, however, the Tigers might feel the time is right to officially confirm Greene as a pivotal figure in this new era of Detroit baseball.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The 2024 Royals added 30 wins relative to the prior season, going from 56 to 86 and sneaking into the playoffs for the first time since their World Series win in 2015. Now they'll go into the winter as clear contenders for the first time in a while, but still with lots of uncertainty ahead.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bobby Witt Jr., SS: $279MM through 2034 (Final four years are annual player options; Royals can trigger three-year club option for '35-'37 if Witt triggers all player options)
  • Seth Lugo, RHP: $30MM through 2026 ('26 is $15MM player option)
  • Salvador Perez, C: $24MM through 2025 (including $2MM buyout on '26 club option; $2MM of '25 salary is deferred)

Other Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $61.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Renfroe and Stratton are the only two options triggered): $348.5MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Taylor, Harvey, Hernández, Melendez

Free Agents

Coming into 2024, the Royals were an afterthought for many observers. They had spent close to a decade in the wilderness, finishing at .500 or below in each season from 2016 to 2023. But they managed to shoot back into contention this year and secure a postseason berth, mostly thanks to their starting pitching.

The Kansas City rotation had a 3.55 earned run average this year, second only to the Mariners. An aggressive offseason a year ago played a part in that, as the Royals were one of the more active teams last winter. Their two biggest free agent deals were for starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, both of which were big wins for the club this year. Lugo made 33 starts and tossed over 200 innings with a flat ERA of 3.00, which will surely lead to some Cy Young votes. Wacha got to 29 starts and 166 2/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA.

They also gave a massive extension to Bobby Witt Jr., who went on to have an MVP caliber season in 2024. Those moves and others pushed the payroll to $115MM, per Cot's Baseball Contracts, getting into nine-figure territory for the first time since their last competitive window closed. It's unclear whether they plan to maintain that level of spending, increase it or decrease it.

It was speculated by some that the free agent signings and the Witt extension last winter were an attempt by owner John Sherman to build some public goodwill that would help him secure public money for a new stadium. But in April, voters in Jackson County, Missouri rejected a sales tax measure that would have provided funding for a new stadium for the Royals as well as upgrades for Arrowhead Stadium, home of the NFL's Chiefs.

There's also the broadcast revenue situation to consider. The Royals were one of the clubs with Bally Sports in 2024 but they may not be able to continue that relationship going forward. Diamond Sports Group, the company that has owned Bally for years, has been in bankruptcy for almost two years now and is planning to significantly scale back its MLB operations in 2025. As of a few weeks ago, they were reportedly planning to cut ties with 11 of the 12 clubs they broadcasted in 2024, with the Royals one of the many on the chopping block. It's possible that a new deal could be worked out, but that would come with lower fees than the club had received previously. The Royals reportedly received $45MM as part of their deal with Diamond as recently as 2022.

Even though the club just had a strong season and got some playoff revenue, will Sherman have less interest in throwing money at the team now that the stadium situation is in no man's land and there's likely less TV money coming in?

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Tigers “Finalizing” Deal To Hire Shane Farrell As Farm Director

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8:52AM: The hiring isn’t yet official, as the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky writes (X link) that Farrell and the Tigers “are finalizing a deal.”  Farrell’s role with the Tigers would involve assuming some of the duties left open when Garko was promoted.

8:29AM: The Tigers have hired Shane Farrell as their new farm director, according to Bob Elliott of the Canadian Baseball Network (links to X).  Farrell has spent the last five seasons as the Blue Jays’ director of amateur scouting, and was in charge of the team’s drafts.

As Elliott notes, Farrell has past ties to Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris, as the two previously worked together in the Cubs’ front office when Harris was Chicago’s director of baseball ops and and Farrell was a scout and crosschecker.  There is also a distant family connection to Detroit for Farrell, as his father John (the longtime former manager and pitcher) spent his final season as a player with the Tigers in 1996.

It isn’t yet known if Farrell is joining the Tigers’ current front office mix, or if he’ll be taking the place of a departing executive.  Ryan Garko is still credited as the team’s VP of player development, but Garko was also promoted to an assistant GM role back in May.  Fellow AGM Rob Metzler oversees the team’s scouting operations, and Mark Conner has spent the last two seasons as Detroit’s director of amateur scouting.

Farrell’s departure leaves the Blue Jays with a big hole to fill in their front office, and it represents a shakeup in the club’s player development strategies.  While such notables as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alek Manoah are homegrown products of the Toronto farm system, the Jays have long had difficulty in developing a consistent pipeline of minor leaguers who become productive members of the MLB roster.

This problem predates Farrell’s arrival in the organization, and it is naturally hard to gauge his work in Toronto considering how almost literally all of the players drafted by the Jays in the last five seasons have yet to reach the big leagues.  Austin Martin (the fifth overall pick in 2020) is the only player drafted by the Blue Jays from 2020-24 who has made it to the Show, and Martin was traded to the Twins back in 2021 as part of the deal that brought Jose Berrios to Toronto.

Of course, the lack of any immediate help could itself be an issue, as the Jays haven’t had many big prospects coming up to bolster the roster or to be used as trade chips. 2021 first-rounder Gunnar Hoglund was also dealt to the A’s as part of the Matt Chapman trade package in March 2022, and other prominent young pitchers drafted under Farrell (Ricky Tiedemann, CJ Van Eyk, Brandon Barriera) have all had their career slowed by injuries.

Offseason Outlook: Athletics

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Outside attention on the A's will center on their temporary move to Sacramento. The front office's focus will be on supplementing a burgeoning offensive core. A decent second half offers hope the A's could push close to .500 with a few additions to the pitching staff. With a completely blank payroll slate, they'll need to spend some money.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • None

2025 financial commitments: $0
Total future commitments: $0

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Andujar, Brown, Jiménez

Free Agents

The Oakland A's era ended last month after 57 years. The Las Vegas era won't begin for three more. The A's will call Sacramento's Sutter Health Park their temporary home from 2025-27. A's ownership will put the finishing touches on securing $380MM in public funds from Clark County and Nevada to begin construction on their Vegas ballpark. General manager David Forst and his front office get the unenviable task of trying to sell a few veteran players on joining a team that'll call a Triple-A park home.

By default, Forst and his staff will have money to spend. The A's incredibly have zero dollars committed to the 2025 player payroll. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the entire arbitration class to cost $14.4MM. The actual outlay will be a lot less, as only Brent Rooker (projected just north of $5MM) is guaranteed to be brought back.

Each of the A's commitments last winter were one-year deals. The last player they've signed (free agent or extension) for more than two seasons: Ryan Madson in 2015. It's fair to presume the aversion to long-term spending isn't changing in Sacramento, yet the A's will need to add a couple players on short-term pacts. The A's opened the 2024 season with a player payroll around $61MM, as calculated by Cot's Baseball Contracts. Even by John Fisher ownership standards, the A's should add $25-30MM to next season's payroll.

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Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers

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One of the great late-season surges in baseball history brought the Tigers from eight games under .500 to within a game of the AL Championship Series.  With the rebuild now over, the Tigers have plenty of avenues available to bolster the roster for 2025.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Javier Baez, SS: $73MM through 2027
  • Colt Keith, 2B: $24,142,500 through 2030 (includes $2.6425MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2030; deal also includes $13MM club option for 2031 with $1MM buyout, and $15MM club option for 2032 with $2MM buyout)
  • Kenta Maeda, SP/RP: $10MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $38.5MM
Total future commitments: $107,142,500

Option Decisions

  • Casey Mize, SP: $3.1MM club option, $10K buyout (if option is declined, Mize is still arbitration-controlled through 2026)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

  • None

After moving most of their veteran players at the trade deadline, Detroit looked to be playing out the string as late as August 10, when a 3-1 loss to the Giants dropped the Tigers' record to 55-63.  That's when the magic started happening, as the Tigers went 31-13 over their last 44 games to surge into the final AL wild card spot, giving Detroit its first playoff berth since 2014.  The club then upset the Astros in the Wild Card Series and took the Guardians to the limit in the ALDS before Lane Thomas' clutch grand slam in Game 5 finally put the upstart Tigers away for good.

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Montreal’s Olympic Stadium Ruled Out As Possible Temporary Home For Rays

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The Rays are uncertain about where they’ll play in 2025 after Hurricane Milton damaged the Tropicana Field roof. One option that will not be under consideration: Montreal. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the city’s Olympic Stadium — the former home of the Expos and a speculated possibility for the Rays — is undergoing an $870MM renovation to replace its own roof. The stadium will not be available for three years.

“Until 2028, the field of play will be within a construction site and therefore not open to the public,” the stadium’s communications officer told Topkin via email. Montreal is the second city to back away from serving as a potential temporary home for the franchise. The Durham Bulls, home of the organization’s Triple-A affiliate, released a statement earlier this week saying they “do not anticipate hosting (the Rays) for a full season due to schedules overlapping and other logistical challenges.”

The Rays still haven’t confirmed they won’t be able to play all of next season at the Trop. Topkin reported earlier in the week that the facility was unlikely to be repaired by Opening Day, however. The Rays are scheduled to open a new stadium in St. Petersburg in 2028. Assuming that timeline isn’t delayed, it’s not clear if the organization and city will find it worthwhile to repair Tropicana Field if the team is leaving the Trop after three years anyhow.

Montreal was mentioned as a possibility largely because the Rays flirted with the idea of playing there a few years ago. While the Rays were trying to secure public funding for their new stadium, owner Stuart Sternberg floated a plan to divide the team’s home games between Tampa Bay and Montreal. MLB’s executive council killed the idea in January 2022. The Rays turned back to securing the funding for the new facility in St. Petersburg, which was approved this past July. Topkin’s column lists a few other cities the Rays might consider if the Trop is unavailable.

Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Where should the Padres put Adrián Morejón in 2025?
Bullpen 52.28% (824 votes)
Rotation 47.72% (752 votes)
Total Votes: 1,576

Trade Candidate: Taylor Ward

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The Angels are coming off the worst season in franchise history. They lost 99 games for the first time. Only the White Sox, Rockies and Marlins had a worse run differential. The Angels are playing like a rebuilding team, even if they haven’t gotten here intentionally.

Halos brass continues to resist the rebuilding label. Owner Arte Moreno said two weeks ago that he plans to approve a payroll increase and expects the team to compete for a playoff spot. General manager Perry Minasian expressed similar sentiments at his end-of-season press conference. The Angels aren’t about to tear the roster to the studs. At the same time, they can’t run things back while only tinkering with the bullpen (as they did last offseason) and expect markedly better results.

Whether they embrace a short-term reset or look to balance the MLB roster without dealing from one of the league’s worst farm systems, there’s a case for moving Taylor Ward. The 30-year-old left fielder has been the subject of trade speculation dating back to last offseason. The Pirates and Royals reportedly checked in at the most recent deadline. Nothing came together. Pittsburgh ended up acquiring Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins instead. The Royals didn’t address their outfield at the deadline but claimed Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers a few weeks later.

Trading Ward over the summer would have been selling a bit low.  After a strong first couple months, he had a dismal stretch between June and July. From June 1 to the start of play on deadline day, Ward hit .175/.280/.313 while striking out at a 28% clip. He had a .227/.309/.401 season line at that point. He wasn’t trending well as a lineup boost for a contender.

Ward hit much better once the deadline passed. From July 30 on, he turned in a stout .282/.348/.471 slash over 230 plate appearances. He cut his strikeouts to a more manageable 23.9% clip and drilled nine home runs. Ward concluded the season with 25 longballs and a .246/.323/.426 showing that’s about in line with his career trajectory. He’s a slightly above-average hitter who plays roughly league average defense in left field. He has crushed left-handed pitching (.315/.374/.509) over the past two seasons while putting up league average numbers (.229/.314/.399) without the platoon advantage. It’s not a star profile, but that’s a valuable regular.

The Halos control Ward for another two seasons. He qualified for early arbitration in 2023 as a Super Two player, so he’s already in line for a notable salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM sum next season, the highest in the Halos’ arbitration class. He’ll probably be in line for around $12-14MM in his final year of club control.

Ward isn’t too dissimilar from Lane Thomas, whom the Nationals traded to the Guardians at this year’s deadline. Thomas was a little more affordable, playing on a $5.45MM deal in his penultimate arbitration year. The midseason trade meant Cleveland was picking up a year and a half of his services rather than two full seasons. Washington landed a trio of prospects, headlined by recent second-round pick Alex Clemmey and upper minors utility infielder José Tena. That’s a general comparison point for what the Angels could seek for Ward if they were willing to move him for prospects.

Based on Moreno’s and Minasian’s comments, that might not be a consideration. The Angels haven’t merely said they believe they can compete in 2025. Their deadline activity backed that up. Los Angeles didn’t trade anyone who was not an impending free agent despite fielding interest in players like Ward, Luis Rengifo and Tyler Anderson.

Even if the Halos don’t want to make a trade with a firm eye to the future, they could look to deal Ward to net big league pitching. The Angels have one of the worst rotations in MLB. They’ve tended to shy away from significant free agent investments in pitchers, an organizational preference that seems to stem from ownership since it crosses multiple front offices. Trading prospects for rotation help only continues the trend of short-sighted moves that got them in this position.

There aren’t many players they’ll probably be willing to move off the MLB roster. They’re not going to trade Logan O’Hoppe or Zach Neto. Rengifo’s value dropped when he underwent season-ending wrist surgery in August. Anderson had a poor second half and has minimal appeal on a $13MM salary. Trading him for a modest return subtracts one of their few stable sources of innings.

The Angels aren’t exactly overflowing with outfield talent either, but left field is a comparatively easier position to address. That could come internally. Mike Trout has already said he could move off center field in an effort to stay healthy. His arm probably fits better in left than in right. Even if they move Trout to right (or kick Ward to that corner so Trout can handle left field), that could block one of the simplest paths to adding some punch to the lineup. This is a decent class for free agent corner outfielders, with players like Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill and Michael Conforto available. Trading Ward for a starter would clear a path for a free agent pursuit from someone in that group.

Pittsburgh and Kansas City could renew their interest. The Bucs got very little out of De La Cruz, while Grossman and Pham are free agents.  The Reds, Phillies, Braves, Blue Jays and Padres are other teams that could look for corner outfield help this winter. The Tigers and Red Sox are among the teams that’ll be seeking right-handed bats.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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