Click here to read a transcript of Wednesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
Quick postseason exits in 2022 and 2023 left the Blue Jays wondering last winter if their core roster was good enough to compete for a World Series. Heading into this offseason, the question is now if the Jays' core can even still contend at all, after the team cratered to a 74-88 record. In what could potentially be Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s last season in Toronto, the Jays are under enormous pressure to turn things around.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Berrios, SP: $84MM through 2028 (Berrios has opt-out clause after 2026 season)
- Kevin Gausman, SP: $46MM through 2026
- George Springer, OF: $45MM through 2026
- Yariel Rodriguez, SP/RP: $22MM through 2028 (includes $6MM player option for 2028; Blue Jays have $10MM club option if Rodriguez declines)
- Chris Bassitt, SP: $21MM through 2025
- Bo Bichette, SS: $16.5MM through 2025
- Chad Green, RP: $10.5MM through 2025
Other Commitments
- Roughly $1.22MM to the Pirates to cover a portion of Isiah Kiner-Falefa's 2025 salary
2025 financial commitments: $117.72MM
Total future commitments: $246.22MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM
- Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM
- Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM
- Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM
- Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM
- Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM
- Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM
- Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM
- Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM
- Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Cabrera, Pop, Tate
Free Agents
After a comparatively average 2023 season, Guerrero responded with a huge year that re-established him as one of baseball's top hitters. Daulton Varsho also improved to roughly league-average offense, and continued his exceptional glovework in Toronto's outfield. Alejandro Kirk has quietly become something of the catching equivalent of Varsho, as a standout defender whose bat leaves something to be desired. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt were more good than great this season but they bring a lot of durability and general effectiveness to the rotation. They'll be joined in next year's staff by Bowden Francis, whose sudden emergence in the second half made him like a budding ace, let alone simply worthy of a starting role.
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Luis Arraez Undergoes Thumb Surgery
Luis Arraez had surgery today to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. The three-time All-Star announced the news himself on X, while Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase added that the Padres expect to have him back at full health in time for spring training.
Arraez had been playing through the pain since mid-June, when he tore a ligament in his left thumb on a slide into third base. He sat out the All-Star Game to rest the injured digit but otherwise played in 70 of the Padres’ final 78 games and all seven of their postseason contests. However, he knew surgery would be necessary if he was going to make a proper recovery, and once the Padres were eliminated from the playoffs, he went under the knife.
With an NL-best .314 batting average, Arraez claimed his third consecutive batting title this season, but his overall numbers weren’t nearly as impressive as they’ve been in the recent past. After putting up an .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022 to ’23, Arraez produced a .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ in 2024. Those are still above-average numbers, but that level of offense isn’t great coming from a poor defensive first baseman/terrible defensive second baseman. And unfortunately, Arraez can’t blame all of his struggles on his thumb; he hit .310 with a 106 wRC+ before the injury and .319 with a 113 wRC+ after. At the same time, that’s not to say the torn ligament didn’t have any effect. His Statcast expected wOBA on contact fell from .335 before the injury to .312 afterward. It’s possible the pain from the injury prevented him from hitting the ball quite as hard.
Despite his down year, Arraez should be one of the highest-paid arbitration-eligible players next season, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a $14.6MM salary for the infielder in 2025. It’s his final year of team control, so he’ll look to get back to full strength and perform more like his 2022-23 self, either to earn a bigger contract in free agency or an extension from San Diego. The Padres will hope for the same, since the best version of Arraez can be an excellent table-setter atop the lineup in front of hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill.
More On Giants’ General Manager Search
Earlier this month, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote about three potential candidates for the Giants’ open general manager position: Athletics assistant GM Billy Owens, Giants assistant GM Jeremy Shelley, and former Giants GM Bobby Evans. However, she also noted that the search was just beginning and was likely to go well beyond those three initial names. Indeed, the list is already growing. On Tuesday, Slusser reported that the team “appears to have targeted” De Jon Watson, formerly the director of player development for the Nationals and currently a special adviser for the Astros. She also names Logan White, a long-time special advisor in the Padres front office and formerly a long-tenured executive with the Dodgers, as a candidate for the position and adds that Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp is also “on the Giants’ radar.”
Additionally, Slusser emphasized that Evans isn’t necessarily a candidate to reclaim his job as the Giants GM, a role he held for four seasons from 2015-18. It’s not yet clear what type of front office job the team is considering him for; it could be more of an advisory role than an official position. Similarly, she mentions that Evans’s predecessor, three-time World Series winner Brian Sabean, would be “welcomed back” to the club in an advisory capacity. It’s unclear, however, if Sabean has expressed any interest in leaving his current advisory position with the Yankees to return to the Bay Area.
Just as interesting as the growing list of potential front office hires are the notable names to whom the Giants have not yet reached out. Slusser reports that the team has not been in contact with former Twins GM Thad Levine or former Marlins GM Kim Ng. Despite president of baseball operations Buster Posey’s limited front office experience, the Giants aren’t necessarily interested in hiring a veteran GM to work alongside him. Instead, Posey suggests they could look to hire someone with a strong scouting background, and Slusser adds the GM will most likely take on more of a “public-facing” role while Posey oversees transactions and hirings.
There’s good reason to believe neither Levine nor Ng would have much interest in taking on that type of role. Ng turned down her side of a mutual option with the Marlins last offseason because she didn’t want to work as the second-in-command under a newly hired POBO. Levine’s reasons for leaving the Twins aren’t quite as clear, though it’s easy to imagine he’d like a chance to be a team’s chief baseball decision-maker after working under Derek Falvey for eight seasons. Without reading too much into a playful comparison, it might have been telling when Levine likened his role with the Twins to Mary Poppins “singing in the background.” Perhaps he’d like a chance to sing center stage, and it doesn’t seem like he’d get that opportunity in San Francisco.
Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Zach Eflin, RHP: $18MM through 2025
- Félix Bautista, RHP: $1MM through 2025 (arbitration-eligible in 2026 and ‘27)
Additional Financial Commitments
- Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025
Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM
Option Decisions
- Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
- Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
- Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
- Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
- Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
- Burch Smith (5.086): $1.6MM
- Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
- Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
- Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
- Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
- Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM (Orioles hold $2.2MM club option)
- Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
- Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
- Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
- Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
- Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
- Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
- Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
- Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
- Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera
Free Agents
The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.) In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team.
If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.
It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”
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Masataka Yoshida Undergoes Shoulder Surgery
12:46 pm: According to Ian Browne of MLB.com, the Red Sox are hoping Yoshida will be back in the lineup and ready to play on Opening Day.
11:44 am: Masataka Yoshida had surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder earlier this month, the Red Sox announced. The 31-year-old sat out the final two games of the regular season as he contemplated how to address the shoulder soreness that had bothered him for most of the year. He underwent an MRI after the season, and evidently, the results convinced him and the Red Sox that surgery was the best course of action.
The Red Sox described the procedure as “successful,” though it’s unclear what that means regarding Yoshida’s timeline to return. The usual recovery period for position players who undergo a labrum repair is somewhere between four to six months. Reds infielder Matt McLain had labral repair surgery this past March and initially hoped to return in August before suffering a setback. Meanwhile, Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim had a labrum repair of his own this offseason, and he is hoping to return sometime between mid-April and early May. Kim’s anticipated timeline is slightly longer than McLain’s, but it’s worth noting that Kim’s injury was in his throwing shoulder while McLain’s was not. Yoshida’s injury is also in his throwing shoulder, but as a designated hitter and a left-handed batter, perhaps his recovery timeline will be on the shorter end of the spectrum. If his timeline is similar to McLain’s original goal, he could be ready to return to game action sometime next March.
The 2024 season was complicated for Yoshida in terms of both his injury status and playing time. There was reportedly tension throughout the year between Yoshida and the Red Sox, both because he sought outside opinions regarding a thumb injury against the team’s wishes and because he was unhappy to be limited to a platoon DH role when healthy. Thus, between his injury troubles, defensive shortcomings, and poor performance against left-handed pitching, not to mention any behind-the-scenes tension, Yoshida’s tenure in Boston hasn’t gotten off to the strongest start. It’s fair to wonder if a change of scenery would do him some good, although his recent surgery and the $55.8MM remaining on his contract through 2027 could make a trade difficult to put together.
If Yoshida remains with the Red Sox next season, it’s hard to imagine his role changing all that much. Boston has two of the best defensive corner outfielders in the league, with Jarren Duran manning left field and Wilyer Abreu covering right. Duran can play center as well, but former top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela is far more valuable as an elite defensive center fielder than a stopgap shortstop, and he needs regular playing time if he’s going to improve at the plate. On the offensive side of things, Yoshida is going to need to slowly earn back playing time against left-handed pitchers; he put up a 103 wRC+ against lefties in 2023 but a dreadful 58 wRC+ against southpaws in 2024. Considering the Red Sox will already have at least four lefty batters in the everyday lineup next year – Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Duran, and Abreu – it’s understandable why Cora might prefer to sub out Yoshida for a right-handed bat at DH. Thus, if Yoshida wants to be an everyday player for the Red Sox in 2025, he’ll need to make a quick recovery over the offseason and come to camp ready to address his weaknesses at the plate and in the field.
Shintaro Fujinami To Play Winter Ball, Plans To Pursue MLB Opportunity
Right-hander Shintaro Fujinami is planning to play in the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason as he looks to demonstrate his health for interested clubs, he revealed in an interview with Japanese news outlet Sponichi. He hopes to continue playing in the United States for the 2025 season.
Fujinami’s one-year, $3.35MM deal with the Mets for the 2024 season was derailed by injuries. The hard-throwing 30-year-old (31 in April) was expected to have a place in New York’s bullpen but landed on the injured list in spring training due to shoulder troubles and never wound up pitching in the majors. He pitched four scoreless rehab innings between Rookie ball, Class-A and Double-A but was hit hard in 32 frames with the Mets’ Triple-A club. In those 32 frames, he yielded a 6.68 ERA and walked just over 22% of his opponents. Fujinami still sat at a hearty 97.3 mph with his heater and fanned 25.7% of his opponents, but that velocity was down from the prior season and his command was a disaster even relative to his own shaky standards.
Many Mets fans raised an eyebrow at the time of the Fujinami signing. A big league deal for a reliever coming off a combined 7.18 ERA in 79 innings between the A’s and Orioles in 2023 indeed looked curious absent more context. But that ghastly earned run average was skewed by a woeful run of four starts with the A’s to begin his big league career. Fujinami pitched just 15 innings in Oakland’s rotation but yielded 24 runs on 19 hits and 12 walks. He was dropped to the bullpen and, after a rough start in that role as well, found his groove.
Over his final 51 1/3 innings of the 2023 campaign, Fujinami posted a far more palatable 4.21 ERA. That’s still hardly an eye-catching mark, but that earned run average was accompanied by a 25.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate — vast improvements from his earlier work. He also averaged a blazing 99.2 mph on his heater during that stretch and coupled that with a sharp 12.7% swinging-strike rate. Fujinami was showing an ability to miss bats both off the plate and in the zone and, at times, looking flat-out dominant (as can be seen in GIF form, courtesy of the indispensable Rob Friedman). A modest one-year deal for a then 29-year-old righty who was once a top pick and prospect alongside Shohei Ohtani in NPB seemed perfectly sensible, particularly for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets.
This time around, a big league deal seems less likely (though not impossible, depending how he looks in Puerto Rico). He’ll be showcasing his health in hopes of generating interest among big league clubs. If he looks healthy and regains some the roughly two miles per hour he lost off his heater in the wake of that shoulder injury with the Mets, he could land an invite to spring training next year and compete for a job in a big league bullpen. MLB clubs are constantly drawn to power arms of this nature, so a non-guaranteed deal should be there if Fujinami is healthy and shows some semblance of improved command.
MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Twins general manager is leaving, their deal with Diamond Sports Group is dead and the Pohlad family is exploring a sale of the team (1:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
- What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
- What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year. Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
- Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
- The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)
Check out our past episodes!
- Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
- Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
- Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
The Opener: NLCS, Lux, Rizzo, MLBTR Chat
As the Yankees and Guardians head to Cleveland with New York up 2-0, here are a few things to watch for today:
1. NLCS Game 3:
The Dodgers and Mets left L.A. with the NLCS all tied up, and tonight they’ll take the field in Queens to continue the series. The Dodgers will send right-hander Walker Buehler (5.38 ERA in 16 starts) to the mound in hopes of stronger results after the righty was lit up for six runs in five innings while striking out just one against the Padres in his most recent postseason start. The Mets will counter with right-hander Luis Severino (3.91 ERA in 31 starts) on the heels of a quality start by the righty in the NLDS where he struck out seven Phillies over six innings while surrendering three runs. The matchup between the two hurlers is scheduled to start at 8:08pm local time this evening.
2. Lux day-to-day?
Headed into tonight’s game, one question facing the Dodgers is the availability of second baseman Gavin Lux. As noted by MLB.com, Lux was out of the starting lineup in Game 2, replaced by Enrique Hernandez at second base. The move to not start Lux came on the heels of the 26-year-old being removed from Game 1 due to hip tightness. While manager Dave Roberts indicated prior to the game that Lux would be available off the bench, he ultimately did not make an appearance in Game 2. Following a day off and with a right-handed starter on the mound, will Lux be healthy enough to take the field? While the infielder’s 100 wRC+ during the regular season doesn’t stand out, Lux had a huge finish to the year, hitting .304/.390/.508 in 210 plate appearances after the All-Star break, and he went 5-for-18 with a homer and a walk during the NLDS against San Diego.
3. Rizzo day-to-day:
Coming off a second consecutive win against the Guardians in the ALCS, one focus for the Yankees on their day off will be monitoring the status of veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo was unavailable for the ALDS but returned to the roster for the championship series to play through two fractured fingers on his right hand. The 35-year-old has done quite well for himself on the field so far, going 3-for-7 with a walk and a double, but Brendan Kuty of The Athletic noted before yesterday’s game that Rizzo’s availability is truly day-to-day after he was pulled from Game 1 of the series early and entered the day of Game 2 with his availability uncertain. Rizzo managed to play the full game yesterday, however, and with a day off today there’s certainly reason for optimism that he’ll be able to remain in the club’s lineup as the series heads to Cleveland tomorrow.
4. MLBTR Chat today:
MLBTR’s Steve Adams wasn’t able to host his usual Tuesday chat with readers this week, so it’ll take place this afternoon instead. If you have a question about free agency, your favorite team’s offseason direction, potential winter trades, the ongoing postseason, etc. — you can click here to submit a question in advance, and that same link will allow you to participate live at 3pm CT or read the transcript after the chat has been completed.
Phillies Extend Manager Rob Thomson Through 2026
The Phillies expressed their continued confidence in manager Rob Thomson and his coaching staff today, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski revealing that Thomson has been extended through the 2026 season and his full staff will return in 2025 (per reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). Thomson’s previous contract ran through the 2025 campaign, so it would have left him in lame duck limbo entering next season. As for the rest of the coaches, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported last week that the Phillies were holding “evaluation meetings” in which they would decide whether or not to make any changes to the coaching staff. Evidently, the team’s top decision makers came away from those meetings feeling good about the group of coaches that has led the club to three consecutive postseason appearances.
Thomson took over as the Phillies’ manager partway through the 2022 season, replacing his long-time boss Joe Girardi. A baseball lifer, Thomson had no big league managerial experience at the time, but he had been a major league coach for the Yankees and Phillies since 2004 and a minor league coach and manager (and briefly a front office executive) since 1988. Over parts of three seasons at the helm in Philadelphia, he has led the team to a 250-185 (.575) record, two Wild Card berths, one NL East division title, and one NL pennant. The Phillies have also gone 20-14 in the playoffs under his leadership.
While this year’s postseason run ended much sooner than the Phillies and their fans might have anticipated, there was little reason to think a change was in order atop the dugout steps. That being said, it’s noteworthy that Thomson has now received one-year extensions in back-to-back offseasons. Clearly, the organization doesn’t want him managing as a lame duck, but at the same time, they have been hesitant to give him a long-term deal.
Slightly more surprising than Thomson’s extension is the fact that his full coaching staff will remain intact next season. After all, it’s quite common for a coach or two to get the scapegoat treatment after a season ends in disappointment. However, it’s important to remember how well the Phillies played over the 162-game regular season and not just their poor performance in the NLDS. They were above-average in just about every aspect of the game, including hitting, baserunning, pitching, and fielding. That’s not to say there’s no room for improvement, but Dombrowski appears to be sticking with an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. That approach worked well this past season, in which the Phillies ran it back with nearly the exact same roster and coaching staff they had the year before and managed to improve by five games.
The Phillies coaching staff includes pitching coach Caleb Cotham, assistant pitching coach/director of pitching development Brian Kaplan, hitting coach Kevin Long, bench coach Mike Calitri, third base coach Dusty Wathan, first base/outfield/baserunning coach Paco Figueroa, and infield coach Bobby Dickerson, among others. Interestingly, all seven of those coaches joined the staff before Thomson took over as skipper. Managers often like to put together their own group of coaches, but Thomson seems happy working alongside the staff he inherited.
