Padres Finalize New Contract With Pitching Coach Ruben Niebla
The Padres and pitching coach Ruben Niebla have finalized a new multi-year deal, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune on X. 2024 was the final year of his previous contract but the two sides worked out a new pact to keep their relationship going, though the exact length of the new pact is unclear.
Niebla, 53 in December, was hired by the Padres going into 2022 after spending many years in the Guardians organization. The Friars have generally been successful in that time. They won 89 games in 2022 and made the playoffs, their first time doing so in a full season since 2006. They had a bit of a dip in 2023, falling to 82-80, but were back in the playoffs in 2024 with a 93-69 showing.
The pitching has generally been good in that time, with the club having a collective 3.80 earned run average over the past three seasons, good enough to get into the top 10 in the majors for that period. That’s despite some notable roster churn, as Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger departed after 2022 before Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, Josh Hader and Michael Wacha departed after 2023.
It’s always tough to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach, but Niebla has enough respect in the game that he’s been considered for managerial openings. However, the Padres clearly wanted to have him back as the pitching coach. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller said this week that the club wanted to “reward the staff” that been part of the club’s recent success, per Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune on X.
Once again, the Padres will be challenged on the pitching front going into next year. Joe Musgrove recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2025, blowing a big hole in the rotation. They still have a strong front three of Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish but they don’t really have established options beyond that trio and both Cease and King are slated for free agency after 2025.
Changes are surely coming. The budget may be tight but Preller is often one of the most aggressive executives on the trade market. Though the roster may get shaken up in the coming months, the Friars can go into 2025 knowing the pitching coach won’t change.
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White Sox Sign Justin Dunn To Minor League Deal
The White Sox have signed right-hander Justin Dunn to a minor league deal, per the team. The CAA client will be in spring training as a non-roster invitee.
Now 29 years old, Dunn was a first-round pick by the Mets in 2016. He ranked among the organization’s top prospect when he was traded to Seattle alongside Jarred Kelenic in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster. The M’s gave Dunn a look in parts of three seasons and got decent results along the way, though Dunn also battled multiple shoulder injuries in his Mariners tenure. Eventually, he was packaged with Brandon Williamson and Jake Fraley in the trade bringing Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker to Seattle.
With the Reds, Dunn only pitched a total of 65 2/3 innings between the minors and big leagues combined. His shoulder was ailing at the time of the trade, but Cincinnati made the swap anyhow. Dunn’s first season in Cincinnati was delayed by that shoulder; the team announced late in spring training that Dunn would miss “months” with a shoulder issue. He wound up pitching 31 innings in the minors and another 31 in the majors that year, logging an identical 6.10 ERA in both settings. Dunn’s 2023 season was again delayed by shoulder woes, and he eventually underwent surgery to repair the anterior shoulder in his right capsule late in 2023. He hasn’t pitched since.
Just a couple weeks ago, Dunn’s camp hosted a showcase for big league clubs. It was always unlikely that he’d land a guaranteed roster spot after such a lengthy layoff, but Dunn will head to a White Sox organization that should have ample opportunity for him next season. He’ll bring a career 4.44 ERA, 19.3% strikeout rate and ugly 14.7% walk rate in 133 2/3 innings to Chicago. When healthy, Dunn has averaged 93.7 mph on his heater and paired that offering with an 84 mph slider and 80 mph curveball.
Because of all the time Dunn has spent on a major league injured list, he has four full seasons of service time already. If he makes the White Sox’ roster at any point, he’d get to five years with another 152 days in the majors. At the very least, Dunn has a full slate of minor league options and two seasons of club control remaining. If he’s brought up midseason when there are fewer than 152 days on the calendar, he’d technically be controllable another three years, at minimum. All of that is putting the proverbial cart before the horse, however. First and foremost, Dunn will need to show that his shoulder injury is behind him and make some strides with his longstanding command issues. There’s plenty of former prospect pedigree, but it’s been close to a decade since Dunn was a first-rounder and about five years since he was last considered a top prospect.
Yankees Exercise Club Option On Manager Aaron Boone
The Yankees announced Friday that they’ve exercised their 2025 club option on manager Aaron Boone. He’ll return for an eighth season as the club’s skipper next year.
“Aaron is a steadying presence in our clubhouse and possesses a profound ability to connect with and foster relationships with his players,” GM Brian Cashman said in a statement within this morning’s press release. “Consistently exhibiting these skills in such a demanding and pressurized market is what makes him one of the game’s finest managers. Our work is clearly not done, but as we pursue the ultimate prize in 2025, I am excited to have Aaron back to lead our team.”
The 2024 season saw Boone’s Yankees post a 94-68 record en route to their third AL East title in seven years under his watch. It was the fifth time in six 162-game seasons that a Boone-led Yankees squad won at least 92 games. The Yanks also won their first American League pennant under Boone this past season. Of course, the season still ended in heartbreak for the Yankees, who fell 4-1 against the Dodgers in the World Series, squandering a 5-0 lead in large part due to one of the most painful innings in franchise history.
Boone and the Yankees were attempting to become the first club in MLB history to erase a 3-0 World Series deficit. No team who’d fallen behind 3-0 in the World Series had so much as forced a Game 6. The Yankees looked on their way to doing just that with five early runs against the Dodgers and Gerrit Cole on the mound, but they coughed up five runs in the fifth inning following errors by Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe as well as a defensive lapse that saw first base left uncovered on a grounder to Anthony Rizzo.
Brutal as that one inning was, it won’t sour the organization on the notion that Boone is the right person to steer the ship next year. Whether the two parties discuss an extension remains to be seen. The Yankees allowed Boone to navigate an entire season as a lame-duck skipper in 2021 before re-signing him to a three-year deal that October. As pressure for an elusive World Series trophy continues to mount, it’s at least possible that the Yankees could wait until next offseason before making their decision on whether Boone is right for the job in 2026 and beyond.
“I am grateful for the trust placed in me to lead this team. It’s a responsibility – and an opportunity – that I will never take lightly,” Boone said in his own statement. “It’s a great privilege to show up for work every day and be surrounded by so many determined and talented players, coaches and staff members. Starting with Steinbrenner family, there is a collective commitment to excellence within this organization that is embedded in all that we do. I’m already looking forward to reporting for spring training in Tampa and working tirelessly to return the Yankees to the postseason to compete for a World Championship.”
Under Boone, the Yankees have played at a 603-429 pace. That .584 winning percentage has resulted in postseason berths in six of seven seasons. Much of the Yankees’ 2025 outlook will be dependent on how the offseason plays out. They appear barreling toward a bidding war over Juan Soto and have potential needs at multiple infield spots and in the bullpen as well.
NPB’s Hiroshima Carp Sign Elehuris Montero, Re-Sign Taylor Hearn
The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed infielder Elehuris Montero and re-signed lefty Taylor Hearn, who excelled for the Carp in a relief role in 2024 (Japanese-language links via Yahoo Japan). Both players are CAA clients, and both are receiving one-year deals for the 2025 campaign.
Montero, 26, was once a highly touted corner infield prospect in the Cardinals system. He landed with the Rockies alongside Austin Gomber, Mateo Gil, Tony Locey and Jake Sommers in the trade sending Nolan Arenado to St. Louis. Colorado outrighted him off the 40-man roster this past July, and he became a minor league free agent at season’s end.
The Rox gave Montero his big league debut in 2022, but while he’s shown power at times throughout parts of three MLB seasons, he’s never been able to put the ball in play or reach base with any real consistency. The righty-swinging slugger is a career .228/.277/.387 hitter in 739 plate appearances. He’s been far better in Triple-A, mashing at a .314/.392/.589 pace in 877 trips to the plate. That’s the type of production the Carp surely are hoping to acquire.
The 30-year-old Hearn was a fifth-round pick by the Nats back in 2015 and has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons — primarily with the Rangers. He worked as both a starter and reliever during his time in Texas, enjoying far more success in the bullpen (4.48 ERA, 24.6 K%, 11 BB%) than in the rotation (6.36 ERA, 18.3 K%, 9.5 BB%).
It was in the bullpen that Hearn starred for the Carp upon signing with them last December. He missed some time in ’24 but was excellent when on the mound, pitching 35 innings with a pristine 1.29 ERA. Hearn was one of the primary setup men for the Carp, though he picked up a pair of saves as well. In his 35 frames, he fanned 20.2% of his opponents against a terrific 5.4% walk rate.
The Opener: Platinum Gloves, Objection Deadline, Premier12
Now that the GM Meetings have wrapped up, here are three things we’ll be watching around baseball this weekend:
1. Platinum Glove winners to be revealed:
The Gold Glove Award winners were announced last weekend, honoring the best defensive player in each league at each position. Later today, Rawlings will reveal the winner of the 2024 Platinum Glove Awards, which honor the top defensive player in each league, regardless of position. All 10 Gold Glove winners in each league are eligible for the Platinum Glove, which is determined by a fan vote. Voting was live from Sunday through Thursday night.
Two previous Platinum Glove winners are eligible again this year: Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez and Giants third baseman Matt Chapman. Other strong contenders include Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho, who won the Fielding Bible Defensive Player of the Year Award, and Giants catcher Patrick Bailey, who led the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value.
2. MLB’s objection deadline in DSG bankruptcy case:
Diamond Sports Group must prove in bankruptcy court that it has a feasible plan of action to avoid liquidation in the future, and Major League Baseball has the right to object to that plan. According to Evan Drellich of The Athletic, MLB has until 2:00 pm CT this afternoon to file its formal objection. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that this deadline has already been pushed back several times.
The Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins reportedly have deals in place to continue broadcasting their games with Diamond if/when the company emerges from bankruptcy, while the Twins, Guardians, and Brewers will broadcast their games through MLB instead. The Rangers have not yet made alternate plans, but they have suggested they will not negotiate a new deal with Diamond. As Drellich points out, that leaves the broadcast situations for the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, and Rays up in the air. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports that DSG “remains in talks with at least some of those teams.”
3. WBSC Premier12 kicks off this weekend:
The Premier12 championship, organized by the World Baseball Softball Confederation, is set to kick off this Saturday. The action will begin with Panama vs. Netherlands, while Puerto Rico will take on the USA later that day. More matchups of the weekend include Venezuela vs. Mexico, Venezuela vs. Panama, Netherlands vs. the USA, and Mexico vs. Puerto Rico. The tournament, which features the 12 highest-ranked national baseball teams worldwide, runs from November 9 to 24. Games will be played in Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
Players on a 40-man roster are not eligible to participate in the Premier12, but there are several top-100 prospects on this year’s Team USA roster: Rays infielder Carson Williams, Cubs infielder Matt Shaw, Phillies outfielder Justin Crawford, Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson and Braves catcher Drake Baldwin. There are also a handful of free agents with MLB experience on this year’s roster, including Rich Hill and Dan Altavilla. The WBSC’s official web site has more info on the Premier12 event and full rosters for all the teams involved.
Mets Owner Steve Cohen To Meet With Juan Soto, Scott Boras Next Week
The Mets have been expected to line up as one of Juan Soto‘s primary suitors all winter, and after reaching out to agent Scott Boras on day one of the offseason, owner Steve Cohen is now set for an in-person visit with Soto and his agent in Southern California next week, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post. Of course, the Boras Corporation also represents key free agents like Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Yusei Kikuchi and Ha-Seong Kim. Whether Cohen and Boras will discuss any of those names — and whether any of those players will drop in for a sit-down with Cohen as well — remains unclear.
Little needs to be said about the potential fit for Soto in Queens. He’s among the game’s very best players and, as a free agent who’ll play next season at 26, he’s arguably the most coveted free agent since Alex Rodriguez reached the open market at the same age back in 2000. One could argue Shohei Ohtani as well, of course, but Ohtani hit the market at 29 and in the aftermath of an elbow surgery that would keep him off the mound or a full season.
The Mets, meanwhile, have one departing free agent outfielder (center fielder Harrison Bader), another who’s a free agent after next season (Starling Marte) and more than $100MM in free agent salaries coming off the books. Even with a full outfield, the Mets would likely be making a strong push for Soto. No team in MLB has a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their 2024 payroll levels, nor does any team have a larger gap between their projected 2025 payroll and their all-time franchise-record payroll. Beyond that, Cohen is widely known as the wealthiest owner in the league. He’s a lifelong Mets fan who purchased the club as something of a passion project, and he immediately showed a willingness to put forth some of the largest payrolls of any team in major league history. The newly implemented fourth tier of luxury penalization is often colloquially referred to as the “Cohen tax.”
All that said, while an in-person meeting between the two parties is clearly of some significance, it’s not any indicator that there’s major traction toward a deal. Soto has heard from more than a third of the league, with even small-market clubs like the Rays reportedly doing their due diligence. It stands to reason that any club with serious interest is going to have an ownership meeting with Soto and Boras.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner reportedly had a private meeting with Soto over the summer. The Dodgers, Giants, Blue Jays Nationals and others have all been mentioned as potential landing spots. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com paints a reunion between Soto and his original organization as something of a long shot, but the Nats will presumably at least be on the periphery. Soto is such an uncommon free agent archetype that teams who’d normally never play for a free agent of this caliber could well throw their proverbial hats into the ring. A quick and decisive free agent process that’s resolved in mid-November feels quite unlikely.
For the Mets, Yankees and other serious bidders, however, getting an early feel for the market will be paramount. So much of any team’s offseason budget would be allocated to a Soto signing that his landing place — regardless of where it is — will have an immediate ripple effect on where those offseason dollars are spent. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if other owners, presidents of baseball operations, general managers, etc. traveled to meet with Soto and Boras in the next week or two, as the Boras Corporation feels out the early stages of interest and sets expectations for what most onlookers expect to be a historic contract — one that could set new standards in terms of net present value and average annual value (when factoring in for the deferrals on Ohtani’s contract).
And, as far as comparing Soto’s free agency to that of Ohtani, Boras unsurprisingly dismissed any such comparisons at this week’s GM Meetings and sought to put Soto in a tier unto himself. Via Puma, Boras had this to say about the comparison:
“I don’t think Ohtani has much to do with Juan Soto at all. It’s not something we discuss or consider. Juan Soto is in an age category that separates him from all. So comparability is not when you do these things for these young players.”
How Will The Market Value Pete Alonso?
There are a few players who are tough to predict during the preparation of the Top 50 free agents every year. Often, they're players whose reputation outpaces their statistical output, especially in their walk year. Pete Alonso is the best example this offseason.
We landed on a five-year, $125MM prediction that ranked him seventh in the class. That seems to be below market consensus. Other estimates of Alonso's earning power have landed in the $140MM to $170MM range.* Those align more closely with the Polar Bear's reputation as a star, putting him in the Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson bucket. Freeman landed a deferred $162MM contract from the Dodgers, while Olson's extension with the Braves guaranteed him $168MM over eight seasons.
Alonso likely expects to be paid similarly. Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Alonso declined a seven-year, $158MM offer from the Mets in June 2023. That would have bought out his final arbitration season and six free agent years. Alonso collected $20.5MM for his last arbitration year, so the extension proposal can be considered akin to $137.5MM over six seasons. As recently as last summer, Alonso and his previous representatives felt he could do better. (He has since hired the Boras Corporation.) He'll need to buck some market trends for that to be the case.
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A’s Not Discussing Rotation Move For Mason Miller
Last offseason, the Athletics moved Mason Miller from the rotation to the closing job. General manager David Forst said at the time that the A’s were open to building the right-hander back up as a starter after one season in relief. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for now.
“We’re not talking about moving him back into a starting role,” Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle this week. While that doesn’t preclude having the conversation at some point during the offseason, it appears the likelier outcome is that Miller will remain in the ninth inning.
Stretching Miller back out would be a huge risk-reward play for the A’s. A few teams have had success with converted relievers in recent seasons. Garrett Crochet immediately looked like a budding ace when the White Sox gave him a starting job. Seth Lugo and Michael King have gone from setup relievers to borderline top-of-the-rotation starters. Reynaldo López and José Soriano found success but battled injury issues in their returns to starting. Free agent righty Jeff Hoffman has drawn interest as a potential rotation conversion.
Miller is talented enough that a Crochet arc would be within the realistic range of outcomes. The A’s are concerned that a starter’s workload would weigh heavily on his arm, though. Miller has battled shoulder and elbow injuries and pitched fewer than 40 innings in the minor leagues. He started six MLB games as a rookie in 2023. Miller was pitching well but forearm tightness shelved him between mid-May and the start of September. The A’s used him out of the bullpen for the season’s final month and kept him in that capacity this year.
The 26-year-old’s first full season as a closer could hardly have gone better. Miller’s already elite velocity jumped in short stints. His fastball averaged nearly 101 MPH and routinely got into the 103-104 range. Between that kind of life and a wipeout slider, Miller was almost untouchable. He turned in a 2.49 ERA while striking out almost 42% of opposing hitters through 65 innings. Opponents swung and missed at nearly a fifth of his offerings. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only Josh Hader and Braves’ breakout lefty Dylan Lee got swinging strikes more frequently. Miller locked down 28 of 31 save attempts.
Most importantly, Miller’s arm held up. His only injury this year was a three-week absence due to a small fracture in his non-throwing hand. (He reportedly sustained that injury when he struck a training table in frustration after a poor outing.) It took all of a few weeks for Miller to establish himself as an elite late-game weapon.
Relievers aren’t immune to injury, but the A’s clearly feel better about his chances to stay healthy working in 1-2 inning stints. Assuming they don’t reverse course later in the offseason, he’ll project as one of the best closers in baseball. Other teams called on Miller at the deadline and surely will do so again this winter, but a trade would be a surprise. He’s still a year from arbitration and under club control for five seasons. The A’s are no longer aggressively tearing down the roster. They were relatively quiet at the deadline. Forst has already declared they’re keeping Brent Rooker, their best trade chip aside from Miller.
The A’s will need to add multiple starting pitchers. Their rotation is among the thinnest in the league. Players like JP Sears, Mitch Spence and Joey Estes headline the group. They all look like back-of-the-rotation arms at best. With almost nothing on the books for next season, Forst and his staff should be able to take on money via trade and/or a mid-level free agent strike to add innings.
Breslow: Red Sox Looking To “Raise The Ceiling” In Rotation
The Red Sox look to be one of the top suitors for impact starting pitching. As teams laid the groundwork for the offseason at this week’s GM Meetings, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow suggested the Sox are evaluating ways to land a top-flight starter.
“We know we need to raise the ceiling of the rotation,” Breslow said (link via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). “I think there are a lot of ways to do that, but we’re going to be really, really open-minded.”
The most straightforward solution is through free agency. Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell headline the rotation class. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi and Sean Manaea all project as mid-rotation arms and should be available on shorter-term deals based on their ages. Eovaldi is probably looking at a two-year pact with a lofty annual value, while Manaea and Kikuchi should get three or four years.
Snell and Burnes are the unquestioned aces. Fried is a little more of a borderline ace but he’d slot into the top two spots in any rotation. Flaherty has flashed ace-caliber ability, albeit with less consistency. They’d all project as the #1 starter in Boston. The Red Sox have a group of quality mid-rotation starters but don’t have a true #1 arm.
Tanner Houck is the closest thing to an ace among the internal options. He’s coming off an excellent year, turning in a 3.12 ERA through 30 starts. Houck’s profile is built more around huge ground-ball numbers than swinging strikes. Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford each took 30+ starts with earned run averages narrowly below 4.50. They fit into the middle of a rotation. So does Lucas Giolito, who’ll be back after missing all of 2024 due to elbow surgery. Giolito has performed like a #2 starter at his best, but home run issues led him to post an ERA approaching 5.00 in both 2022 and ’23.
The Sox are awaiting word from Nick Pivetta on whether he’ll return. Boston somewhat surprisingly tagged Pivetta with a $21.05MM qualifying offer. The right-hander has until November 19 to decide whether to accept. (Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote yesterday that while Pivetta is weighing the QO, he has found a nice market in free agency’s opening days.) As with the rest of the Sox’s in-house options, he projects as more of a third or fourth starter. Pivetta has the strikeout and walk profile of a top-end arm, but he has been very susceptible to the longball over his career. He has been a durable source of innings but doesn’t have a single sub-4.00 ERA showing on his résumé.
Boston has a few interesting depth arms beyond that. Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts performed well when called upon. Garrett Whitlock could be back from UCL surgery in the second half, though his injury history could point to a return to the bullpen. Quinn Priester is a former top prospect who hasn’t put things together at the MLB level.
The Red Sox have good rotation depth, especially if Pivetta accepts the QO. There’s certainly value in not giving starts to sub-replacement level pitchers. The Sox are well positioned to do that, but it’d be difficult to compete for an AL East title without having a legitimate #1 starter.
Boston should have the payroll capacity to make a run at one of the top starters. They also have the high-end prospect capital to push for any trade candidates. Garrett Crochet could be the prize of the rotation trade market. He flashed ace upside in his first season as a starting pitcher. The White Sox are likely to move him this offseason. Chicago GM Chris Getz said they’ll target position player help in trade returns.
Boston has four hitters who landed among Baseball America’s top 25 prospects. A trade involving top 10 talents Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer would be a shock, but catcher Kyle Teel or breakout infielder Kristian Campbell could center a return for a high-end starter. Boston could also deal lefty-hitting outfielder Wilyer Abreu for pitching help if they’re confident Anthony will be a productive MLB player next year.
There’s been some speculation about the Sox moving young first baseman Triston Casas as well, but Breslow shot that notion down this week. “I’m not sure where that’s coming from,” Boston’s front office leader said (X link via Christopher Smith of MassLive). “Casas is a guy that we think has 40-home run potential. He’s young and also has a great strike zone discipline and controls an at-bat. We’re excited he’s on our team.”
In addition to the rotation pursuit, Boston needs to land bullpen help. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin each hit free agency. While a Martin return is possible, Jansen is almost certainly signing elsewhere. Liam Hendriks should be back from Tommy John surgery and could pitch in the ninth inning behind Rule 5 breakout Justin Slaten. There’s room for another leverage arm, especially one who throws left-handed.
Breslow acknowledged that the Red Sox are looking for lefty bullpen help to add a late-inning arm alongside Cam Booser and Brennan Bernardino (Smith link). Breslow also spoke generally about wanting to add velocity and a swing-and-miss element to the relief group. Boston relievers ranked 23rd in strikeout rate and 26th in swinging strike percentage this year. Free agency’s top reliever, Tanner Scott, is a lefty who throws in the upper 90s and misses bats in bunches. He’s well above the rest of the left-handed class, so he could command a four-year deal that exceeds $50MM.