Phillies Rumors

Phillies Make Qualifying Offer To Jeremy Hellickson

By Jeff Todd | November 7, 2016 at 3:56pm CDT

3:56pm: Philadelphia has officially announced the offer to Hellickson.

10:33pm: The Phillies will make a qualifying offer today to right-hander Jeremy Hellickson, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). He’ll have a week to decide whether to take the one-year, $17.2MM offer or instead enter the free agent market with the requirement that a new team sacrifice a draft pick to sign him.

Depending upon one’s perspective, this move will come as obvious or as quite a surprise. All the chatter around the team of late has suggested that Hellickson was in line to be tagged with a QO — which became especially clear when the Phils decided not to move him at the trade deadline. But Hellickson has never been a frontline arm and perhaps doesn’t feel like the type of player who’d typically have this level of cash dangled.

Hellickson is coming off of his best season in some time, as he contributed 189 innings of 3.71 ERA ball to the Phils. His peripherals are in about the same range as usual, though, as he ended with 7.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and a 40.7% groundball rate. ERA estimators weren’t particularly excited: Hellickson did post full-season career lows in FIP (3.98) and xFIP (3.99), though those are hardly stellar marks. His SIERA has landed between 4.04 and 4.15 in each of the last four seasons, and perhaps that’s the best indication of what teams can reasonably expect moving forward.

Ultimately, it’s not hard to see Philadelphia’s reasoning, especially given the runaway spending seen last winter on starting pitching and the thin supply available this winter. If he were to take the offer, it may be something of an overpay for a single season. But it would only be a one-year commitment, and this organization can certainly afford it — and might even welcome the chance to welcome back the righty after a sturdy campaign. If he rejects it, of course, Philly would line up to add a draft pick that could be quite valuable at this stage of the team’s rebuilding effort.

There’s something of a win-win in the decision for the team. From Hellickson’s perspective, the offer is not welcome, but there are silver linings as well. For one thing, it’s nice to have this kind of cash on the table, even if it’s only on a one-year rate. And the offer suggests that the Phils were impressed with him last year, which provides some information to the rest of the market. If Hellickson prefers to stay in Philadelphia, he could still negotiate a lengthier pact. But given the state of the pitching market, there’s good reason to think he can turn down the QO and still do just fine in free agency.

Phillies Acquire Pat Neshek

By Jeff Todd | November 4, 2016 at 4:23pm CDT

The Phillies have struck a deal to acquire reliever Pat Neshek from the Astros, as Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle first reported (via Twitter). Houston will receive a player to be named later or cash in the swap.

Neshek, 36, was controllable for the coming season through a $6.5MM club option. Philadelphia has exercised that option, as it announced along with the trade. The Astros were reportedly considering a trade of the veteran righty with his option decision coming due, and found a willing partner in a Phillies organization that has a need for bullpen depth.

The sidearming Neshek primarily delivers a sinker-slider combo has been rather effective over the past few years. While he hasn’t matched his output from a breakout 2014 stint with the Cardinals, Neshek is fresh off a year in which he contributed 47 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9.

Neshek has never carried much velocity, and has maintained his average fastball over recent years, so his age isn’t a significant concern. The biggest issue is his performance against lefties, who torched him for a .250/.321/.646 batting line and four home runs in 55 plate appearances last year. Of course, Neshek was exceedingly stingy when facing righties, who managed an anemic .172/.209/.254 batting line against him in 2016.

Those dramatic splits make Neshek somewhat unlikely to challenge for the Phillies’ somewhat unsettled closer’s role. But he could take an important spot in the pecking order for late-inning setup opportunities. Neshek provides the team with a veteran pen piece to help lock down winnable games as the Phils seek to move back towards contention — just the kind of target posited in our offseason outlook for the organization. He could also turn into a deadline trade chip. With only a single-season commitment required, and very little on the Philadelphia books, it was a fairly easy risk to take.

[RELATED: Updated Phillies Depth Chart]

For the Astros, whose bullpen was one of the game’s very best last year, it obviously made more sense to re-allocate the cash that might otherwise have gone to Neshek. Houston has plenty of options on hand to take over Neshek’s innings, and is already busying itself with building out the rest of its roster as it seeks to return to the postseason following a disappointing 2016 campaign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Phillies Decline 2017 Options For Ryan Howard, Charlie Morton

By Connor Byrne | November 3, 2016 at 11:35am CDT

The Phillies have declined their 2017 club options for first baseman Ryan Howard and right-hander Charlie Morton, per a team announcement. Philadelphia will now pay Howard a $10MM buyout in lieu of the $23MM that it would have owed the slugger had it picked up the option. Morton would have made $9.5MM next season, but he will receive a far more modest $1MM buyout instead.

The club’s decision to move on from Howard comes as no surprise, but it’s the end of a long era that was quite fruitful at times. A fifth-round pick in 2001, Howard debuted in earnest in 2005 and served as one of the majors’ preeminent home run threats from then until 2011. Howard clubbed at least 45 home runs in four seasons during that span, including a majors-best 58 in 2006 en route to National League MVP honors. Two years later, Howard once again paced the league with 48 long balls in a season that ended with the Phillies’ first World Series championship since 1980.

On the strength of his early success, the three-time All-Star signed a five-year, $125MM extension with the Phillies in April 2010, but the deal was mostly disastrous for the team. From that point forward, Howard batted an underwhelming .240/.314/.452 in 3,386 plate appearances, though he did add 160 more homers to give him 382 as a Phillie – second in club history to Mike Schmidt’s 548. Between his declining offense and inability to contribute as a baserunner or defender, Howard combined for a microscopic 0.4 fWAR during his final seven years with the franchise. The soon-to-be 37-year-old indicated in September that he wants to continue his career, but it’s likely his only hope will be to catch on as a designated hitter with an American League team. Even that might be a stretch, though, as Howard slashed just .196/.257/.453 in 362 PAs this year while ceding at-bats to Tommy Joseph.

Morton should fare better than Howard on the open market, but injuries have beset the 32-year-old throughout his career and that continued in 2016. After making just four starts, Morton underwent season-ending surgery on a torn left hamstring. The Phillies hoped Morton would serve as a veteran anchor to their young pitching staff upon acquiring him from the Pirates last December, but the injury prevented that from happening. When healthy, Morton has been a usable back-end option, having pitched to a 4.54 ERA while inducing grounders at a 55.4 percent clip in 893 career innings. From 2013-14, his best two-year stretch, Morton logged a 3.52 ERA and 58.9 percent ground-ball rate in 273 1/3 frames.

Aaron Nola Completes Throwing Program, Expects To Be Ready For 2017

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2016 at 8:34pm CDT

Right-hander Aaron Nola gave Phillies fans a scare when his season ended due to “low-grade” damage to the ulnar collateral ligament and the flexor tendon his right elbow and forearm, but his agent, Joe Longo of Paragon Sports, tells Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer that the promising young righty completed a throwing program and has been declared healthy. Dr. James Andrews recommended a cautious approach to Nola’s rehab and didn’t consider surgery, per Gelb, and the team and Nola both came away from his October throwing program feeling healthy.

Certainly, that’s a sigh of relief for the Phillies, who are banking on the former No. 7 overall pick (2014) to pitch near the front of, if not at the front of their rotation for the foreseeable future. Nola had an encouraging debut in 2015, tossing 77 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA ball as a rookie. His 2016 season looked to be a significant step forward before a rapid decline in performance that culminated in a season-ending trip to the DL. The LSU product was sporting a 2.65 ERA with 85 strikeouts against 15 walks to go along with a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate through his first 78 innings this season (12 starts). ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all agreed with that bottom-line result, pegging Nola for a sub-3.00 mark.

A healthy Nola would give the Phillies an impressive young trio atop their rotation, as he’d join fellow righties Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff (acquired from the Astros and Rangers, respectively) in the starting mix. All three pitchers have demonstrated the ability to miss bats (Nola and Velasquez more than Eickhoff) with at least average control. Durability remains a question mark for both Nola and Velasquez, but that’s a terrific start to a rotation that can be controlled through the 2021 season. Looking elsewhere in the rotation, the final two spots are unsettled, though Philadelphia has myriad options from which to choose. Young right-handers Zach Eflin, Jake Thompson and Alec Asher all pitched in the Majors this season and will all get looks in Spring Training (that is, if Eflin is able to fully recover from surgery on each of his knees by that point). Young righty Ben Lively, too, could find himself in the mix next spring as well.

Additionally, the Phillies have been linked to veteran rotation help this winter, suggesting that they’re perhaps interested in bringing someone in to fill a similar role to the one occupied by Jeremy Hellickson in 2016. While there’s an outside chance that Hellickson himself could return to reclaim that role, he’s widely expected to reject a qualifying offer (valued at $17.2MM) in search of a more lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter.

Phillies Name Matt Stairs Hitting Coach

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2016 at 5:14pm CDT

The Phillies announced today that they’ve hired former Major Leaguer Matt Stairs as their new hitting coach. Additionally, the team announced that bench coach Larry Bowa, pitching coach Bob McClure, first base coach Mickey Morandini and third base coach Juan Samuel will all reprise their roles next year. Additionally, 2016 bullpen coach Rick Kranitz will now be McClure’s assistant pitching coach, while 2016 catching coach John McLaren will take over as the bullpen coach.

Despite going undrafted and signing with the Expos as an amateur free agent in 1989, Stairs enjoyed a highly productive 19-year career in the Majors, during which he batted .262/.356/.477 with 265 home runs and 294 doubles. Stairs appeared with 12 organizations over the of his career and holds the all-time record for pinch-hit home runs at 23. Perhaps the best-remembered moment of his career came in one of his final years while playing for the team for which he’ll now coach. In Game 4 of the 2008 NLCS, Stairs teed off on a Jonathan Broxton fastball and hit a massive two-run homer that put the Phillies in front 7-5 and ultimately propelled them to a 3-1 series lead (video link). Philadelphia, of course, would go on to not only win the NLCS but also to top the Rays in the 2008 World Series.

Stairs has been working in broadcasting over the past several years, including the past three with the Phillies. While he doesn’t come with coaching experience, he did serve as a special guest instructor with the Phillies during Spring Training this past year, and between that and his work in the booth he should be familiar with the majority of the team’s young players. However, he’ll have a tall task on his hands in improving a Phillies offense that collectively batted .240/.301/.385 last season. All three of those ratios rated in the bottom three among Major League teams, and no club scored fewer runs in 2016 than Philadelphia’a 610.

Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer sat down with the Phils’ newest coach, with Stairs explaining that his work in the booth for the Phillies has prepared him for the job in a way. “Honestly, the last three years, by sitting in that booth, I can tell you the good, the bad, and the ugly of every swing,” said Stairs. “…I just love hitting. And I’m not tooting my own horn, but I know hitting. A lot of people might think, ‘He was the guy that swung from his heels to try and hit home runs.’ That was only later in my career. I can break down a swing.”

NL East Notes: Marlins, Mets, Cespedes, Fowler, Ruf

By Mark Polishuk | October 29, 2016 at 11:21am CDT

Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

If the Marlins make a “big splash free agent push,” MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro believes it could be for a top closer like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen rather than a starting pitcher. While the Fish are in major need of rotation help, the lack of appealing free agent starters this year could lead the team to spend what dollars they may have on a reliable stopper. Miami could sign a free agent starter at the right price, and Frisaro believes the club could both make a signing as well as acquire another arm by trading a position player.
Trades also could be necessary for the Marlins due to payroll concerns, Frisaro writes elsewhere in his mailbag piece. He thinks Miami’s payroll will rise to around the $90MM range next year, though the Marlins already have roughly $76.3MM earmarked for just 12 players due to salary commitments and arbitration projections.
Dexter Fowler could be a fit for the Mets if Yoenis Cespedes leaves in free agency, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The Mets could add Fowler and re-sign Neil Walker for the money it would take to land Cespedes, and having those two switch-hitters would give the Mets greater depth and versatility. Fowler also brings defensive value as a center fielder, which would help New York since neither Curtis Granderson or Michael Conforto are good fits for the position. Signing Fowler would be an alternative to the Mets’ plan to wait out the Cespedes market, which Sherman believes is risky since the team could be left wanting for a big bat if other free sluggers have signed elsewhere once Cespedes makes his decision.
In another MLB.com mailbag piece, Todd Zolecki “wouldn’t be surprised” if the Phillies part ways with Darin Ruf. Tommy Joseph has supplanted Ruf on the first base depth chart, and Zolecki writes that the Phils now see Ruf as “anything more than insurance” for Joseph or in left field. Ruf spent much of 2016 posting big numbers in Triple-A but hit just .205/.236/.337 in 89 PA for Philadelphia. Ruf’s next opportunity might not come in the big leagues, as Zolecki reports that Ruf has received interest from Japanese teams.

NL East Links: Cespedes, Drew, Phillies, Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | October 22, 2016 at 5:17pm CDT

Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

“There is no urgency” for the Mets to chase Yoenis Cespedes, a source tells ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) since the team already has some outfield depth on hand and can pursue more on the open market for a lower price than Cespedes will command. That said, the Mets would like to have Cespedes back and they’re willing to wait him out this offseason, perhaps if Cespedes is open to accepting another front-loaded contract with an opt-out clause from the team.
Despite a slow start and seven weeks on the DL with an inner-ear problem, Stephen Drew still hit an impressive .266/.339/.524 over 165 PA with the Nationals in 2016. Between Drew’s performance and good clubhouse presence, MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman believes there could be mutual interest between Drew and the Nats for a new contract. Drew’s future in D.C. could hinge on how the Nationals plan to use Trea Turner next year, as if Turner is moved to short, Danny Espinosa could be kept over Drew as the backup infielder.
In response to a reader’s mailbag question, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Phillies explored trading Vince Velasquez again this winter, given that the club seems “willing to consider anything” in their rebuilding process. Velasquez spent some time on the DL with a right biceps strain but otherwise enjoyed a successful first year in Philadelphia, posting a 4.12 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and 3.38 K/BB rate over 131 innings. The Rangers inquired about Velasquez at the trade deadline but the Phils put a high price tag on the 24-year-old righty. You’d have to expect the Phillies would again require a huge offer to consider moving a young, talented arm.
The Marlins may have to be creative to address their pitching needs this offseason, and MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro suggests that Miami could be one of many teams looking to develop their own version of a multi-role reliever like Andrew Miller. David Phelps, Justin Nicolino, Jose Urena, Nick Wittgren or Austin Brice are current Marlins who could be adapted into such a role, though Nicolino and Urena may yet catch on as starting pitchers.

Rule 5 Roundup

By Jeff Todd | October 18, 2016 at 8:08am CDT

We’re just a few months away from this winter’s Rule 5 draft, so it makes sense to take a look back and see how things shook out from the 2015 selections. Several organizations found useful players, even if the most recent class didn’t include an Odubel Herrera-esque breakout sensation. Some of the most recent draftees have probably locked up MLB jobs again for 2017, though others who stuck on a major league roster all year may head back to the minors for further development. (Once a player’s permanent control rights have been secured, his new organization is free to utilize optional assignments as usual for future years.)

Here’s a roundup of the 2015 draft class with the 2016 season in the books:

Keepers

Tyler Goeddel, OF, kept by Phillies from Rays: The 23-year-old struggled with the aggressive move to the big leagues, carrying a .192/.258/.291 batting line in 234 trips to the plate, but showed enough for the rebuilding Phillies to hold onto him all year long.
Luis Perdomo, RHP, kept by Padres (via Rockies) from Cardinals: It didn’t look good early for Perdomo, but he showed better after moving to the rotation and ended with a rather promising 4.85 ERA over twenty starts. Though he struggled to contain the long ball, and only struck out 6.4 per nine, Perdomo sported a nifty 59.0% groundball rate on the year.
Joey Rickard, OF, kept by Orioles from Rays: After opening the year with a bang, Rickard faded to a .268/.319/.377 batting line on the year but held his roster spot in Baltimore. He ended the season on the DL with a thumb injury, though, and may end up at Triple-A for some added seasoning.
Joe Biagini, RHP, kept by Blue Jays from Giants: The only Rule 5 pick to appear in the postseason, Biagini was a great find for Toronto. He ended with 67 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching, with 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, and now looks like a potential fixture in the Jays’ relief corps.
Matthew Bowman, RHP, kept by Cardinals from Mets: Bowman rounds out a trio of impressive relievers. He contributed 67 2/3 innings with a 3.46 ERA and 6.9 BB/9 against 2.7 BB/9 to go with a monster 61.7% groundball rate.

Retained By Other Means

Deolis Guerra, RHP, re-signed by Angels (who selected him from Pirates) after being outrighted: Guerra was in an unusual spot since he had previously been outrighted off of the Bucs’ 40-man roster when he was selected, meaning he didn’t need to be offered back. Los Angeles removed him from the major league roster and then brought him back on a minor league deal, ultimately selecting his contract. Though he was later designated and outrighted by the Halos, Guerra again returned and largely thrived at the major league level, contributing 53 1/3 much-needed pen frames with a 3.21 ERA on the back of 6.1 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9.
Jabari Blash, OF, acquired by Padres (who acquired Rule 5 rights from Athletics) from Mariners: Blash’s intriguing tools weren’t quite ready for the majors, but San Diego struck a deal to hold onto him and was surely impressed with his showing at Triple-A. In his 229 plate appearances there, Blash swatted 11 home runs but — more importantly — carried a .415 OBP with a much-improved 66:41 K/BB ratio.
Ji-Man Choi, 1B, outrighted by Angels after Orioles declined return: The 25-year-old scuffled in the bigs but was rather impressive at the highest level of the minors, where he walked nearly as often as he struck out and put up a .346/.434/.527 slash with five home runs in 227 plate appearances.

Returned

Jake Cave, OF, returned from Reds to Yankees: After failing to crack Cinci’s roster out of camp, Cave impressed at Double-A but slowed at the highest level of the minors (.261/.323/.401 in 354 plate appearances) upon his return to the New York organization.
Evan Rutckyj, LHP, returned from Braves to Yankees: Sent back late in camp, the 24-year-old struggled in limited action on the Yanks’ farm after missing most of the season with elbow issues.
Josh Martin, RHP, returned from Padres to Indians: In his first attempt at Triple-A, Martin posted 66 frames of 3.55 ERA pitching with 8.2 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9.
Daniel Stumpf, LHP, returned from Phillies to Royals: Slowed by a PED suspension, Stumpf was bombed in a brief MLB stint with the Phils but dominated at Double-A upon his return to K.C., posting a 2.11 ERA with 11.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
Chris O’Grady, LHP, returned from Reds to Angels: Sent back in late March, O’Grady compiled a 3.48 ERA over 95 2/3 innings in the upper minors, though he performed much better as a Double-A starter than he did as a Triple-A reliever.
Zack Jones, RHP, returned from Brewers to Twins: The 25-year-old was out with a shoulder injury for most of the year, and ended up being sent back to Minnesota in late June, but has shown swing-and-miss stuff when healthy.
Blake Smith, RHP, returned from Padres to White Sox: Smith ended up making a brief MLB debut upon his return to Chicago, but spend most of the year pitching well at Triple-A Charlotte, where he ran up a 3.53 ERA in 71 1/3 innings with 9.5 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
Colin Walsh, INF, returned from Brewers to Athletics: After struggling badly in his major league stint with the Brewers, Walsh went to Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate and put up a .259/.384/.388 bating line over 245 plate appearances.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2016 at 5:34pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Phillies faded badly after a solid start to the 2016 campaign, and ultimately dealt with some ups and downs from important organizational assets. But with an increasingly massive gulf between the team’s commitments and its spending capacity, the build back toward contention may begin to feature investments in the major league roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Matt Harrison, SP: $15MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.25MM club option for 2018)

Other Obligations

Phillies retained $9.5MM of future obligations to Cole Hamels in trade sending him to Rangers; payout over unreported timeline

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Jeanmar Gomez, RP (5.063) – $4.6MM
Freddy Galvis, SS (4.021) – $4.4MM
Cesar Hernandez, 2B (2.154) – $2.5MM
Cody Asche, 3B/OF (3.022) – $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Gomez, Asche

Contract Options

Ryan Howard, 1B: $25MM club option ($10MM buyout)
Charlie Morton, SP: $9.5MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)

Free Agents

Andres Blanco, Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Jeremy Hellickson, David Hernandez

Phillies Depth Chart; Phillies Payroll Information

With a big new TV contract backing a franchise that already has shown more capacity to spend than all but a few others, the Phillies have been a monster in waiting from the moment their veteran-laden roster took a downturn after the 2011 campaign — its last of five straight NL East title runs. But that was five seasons ago, and the rebuild has really only been undertaken in earnest over the last two years, leading president Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak to continue preaching patience.

All told, despite essentially unrestrained spending capacity, the Phillies are unlikely to lock up too much future payroll space this winter. Klentak has consistently dampened any expectations of a free agent spending spree, and reports suggest instead that the club will look to the free agent and trade markets for some targeted additions — thus maintaining flexibility and keeping the books clear for future extensions and more promising open-market classes still to come.

That said, the Phils can’t be counted out for any free agents, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether the team will weigh a significant addition if it sees a chance at achieving good value and infusing some life into Citizens Bank Park. Certainly, there are a variety of roster spots that could stand to be improved.

The place to start, it seems, is the outfield, where only center is locked down. The remarkable Odubel Herrera has not only been the team’s best player in each of the last two years after being plucked in the Rule 5 draft, but improved significantly in plate discipline (nearly tripling his walks) and home run power (from eight to 15) in his second MLB campaign.

Otherwise, it’s open season. Though there are internal possibilities — now and in the near future — to account for, neither corner spot is spoken for. Cody Asche struggled and may well be a non-tender candidate. Aaron Altherr didn’t progress as hoped after missing a big chunk of the season. Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel will surely head to the minors for needed seasoning. The highly-rated Nick Williams scuffled at Triple-A, with 136 strikeouts against just 19 walks, so he’s probably headed back to Lehigh Valley. Good things happened at Double-A, where Dylan Cozens emerged with forty home runs and Andrew Pullin had a mini-breakout of his own, but neither player stands out as particularly likely to make the MLB roster out of camp. Roman Quinn did reach the majors after a solid showing at Reading, and could be a candidate for a roster spot, but he hasn’t shown much power and showed enough swing-and-miss in his brief MLB stint that more development may be in order.

That group, along with those deeper in the system, may come with enough promise that the Phillies won’t chase two multi-year outfield additions. But it seems reasonable to expect that the club will at least sign one established veteran to man a corner post for the next several years. There are a variety of options available, ranging from the probably-unrealistic Yoenis Cespedes to the steady Josh Reddick and relatively youthful left-handed hitters Michael Saunders and Colby Rasmus. We’ve heard some chatter connecting Ian Desmond to Philly, where presumably he’d play in left or even occupy a utility role at some point. Dangling a moderate guarantee with an opt-out to Carlos Gomez could be interesting. And if they like what they’ve seen, the Phillies could be in a nice position to take a shot on MLB-to-KBO success story Eric Thames (assuming he’d move back to the grass if he returns stateside). Odds are, the club will add at least two veterans, perhaps chasing a shorter-term deal with some upside on one player.

There’s far less work to be done in the infield, where most of the jobs are accounted for. Though he took a step back, Maikel Franco remains the future at third. Shortstop Freddy Galvis doesn’t get on base much, but put on a late-season power surge and showed plenty of glove to hold onto the everyday job. The expectation remains that he’s keeping the seat warm for top prospect J.P. Crawford, though Galvis’s strong finish and Crawford’s tepid batting line in his first run at Triple-A almost certainly makes that a mid-season debate. Looking at second, Cesar Hernandez somewhat quietly ended up having a big year, posting a .371 on-base percentage, fielding his position quite well, though he was gunned down in 13 of 30 stolen base attempts. The team will presumably either re-sign Andres Blanco, who has been surprisingly useful, or find another sturdy utility piece to fill things out.

There’s a bit more uncertainty at first and behind the plate, but that doesn’t mean there’s reason to expect any major action. With Ryan Howard set to follow Carlos Ruiz out the door, finally closing the book on the team’s stretch of excellence, the first base job seems set to go to Tommy Joseph — who battled through concussion issues that forced him out from the catching position. He swatted 21 home runs and posted a .257/.308/.505 batting line in 347 plate appearances, though he was much better with the platoon advantage and could end up being paired with a lefty slugger. Joseph’s emergence may push Darin Ruf off the roster.

In some regards, 28-year-old backstop Cameron Rupp was an even bigger surprise than Joseph. He posted league-average overall offensive numbers and whacked 16 long balls in his 419 trips to the plate, setting himself up as the primary receiver for 2017. A strike to bring back A.J. Ellis (who was acquired when Ruiz was traded) or add another one-year veteran wouldn’t be surprising. Regardless of where Joseph goes from here, the organization will want to see what it has sooner than later in top prospects Jorge Alfaro and Andrew Knapp, so a significant addition would be a surprise.

As for the pitching, it was two steps forward, one step back in many regards. Righty Aaron Nola is the chief example of that, as he showed immense promise — with 9.8 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 and a 55.2% groundball rate — even if a low strand rate (60.6%) helped crater his earned run average (4.78 over 111 innings). The big question, though, is whether he can work back from a UCL sprain or whether he’ll end up succumbing to Tommy John surgery. Vince Velasquez also dealt with arm troubles and inconsistency, but was dominant at times and ended up with 131 innings of 4.12 ERA ball. Forming the third piece of what could be a nice core was fellow righty Jerad Eickhoff, who has exceeded expectations (both of prospect observers and of ERA estimators) with 248 1/3 innings of 3.44 ERA pitching since rising to the major league level in the middle of 2015.

How the Phils will account for the two or three remaining spots in the rotation remains to be seen. Charlie Morton figures to hit the open market after missing most of the year, unless he and the team see eye to eye on a mutual option or work something else out. Less-established starters Adam Morgan, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson all logged significant MLB innings, but none performed well enough to lock up a job (and Eflin will also be working back from surgery to both knees). Command artist Alec Asher was excellent in the upper minors before a PED suspension, and then got strong results in five major league starts upon his return, so he could factor in the club’s 2016 plans.

While there are options on hand, odds are the Phils will look to add at least one sturdy veteran. Jeremy Hellickson filled that role quite nicely after being acquired via trade, and it seems the team will be able to recoup a draft pick for its investment by issuing him a qualifying offer. Klentak will likely be looking to find at least one more solid rotation piece, whether by signing or trade. It seems reasonable to think that the team will again be willing to allocate a decent bit of money to that effort, so long as the contract doesn’t drag out too far into the future. Another strike similar to the trades for Hellickson and Morton would not surprise. There are some fairly costly pitchers with short-term control remaining (via arb or option) who could fit a generally similar profile, such as Drew Smyly, Hector Santiago, Jordan Lyles, Jaime Garcia, Derek Holland, Clay Buchholz, and even Tyson Ross — if he can show that he’s on an upward health trajectory, at least.

The bullpen, too, can be filled mostly from within, but the Phillies can also open up the late innings to outsiders who are interested in throwing high-leverage innings. Incumbent closer Jeanmar Gomez stumbled down the stretch, and could even draw non-tender consideration with his save tally inflating his earning power. But he was quite good for most of the year, seemingly wearing down in the course of another season of heavy usage. Hector Neris was the true eye-opener in 2016, and he’ll continue to play a significant role moving forward. Neris appears to be first in line for closing duties, though the club could dangle that opportunity in a bid to draw veteran free agents.

Filling things out will likely involve giving some chances to younger players while perhaps taking some shots on veterans — as the team did last year with David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey, and others. The Phils received interesting showings last year from live-armed young hurlers such as Edubray Ramos, Joely Rodriguez, and Severino Gonzalez, all of whom will factor at some point in 2017. Others — including Michael Mariot, Luis Garcia, and Phil Klein — could be kept on the 40-man for depth and given a chance to compete this spring. While Elvis Araujo and injury-addled Mario Hollands could compete for a chance to serve as a lefty option alongside Rodriguez, that’s certainly a plausible area for the club to target on the open market. All told, dropping a bit of cash on the bullpen would be an easy way to improve for the Phillies, but it would be exceedingly surprising were the club to play in the markets for the top available closers.

What’s not covered above, at least not directly, is the possibility of more creative action than we’ve seen of late. Klentak has thus far proceeded steadily — after all, most of the Phillies’ major veteran pieces were already gone when he took over — rather than engineering the kinds of bold swaps put together by the new-look Braves front office. But he also has far more financial might at his disposal, and already wielded it to add Hellickson, Morton, and Hernandez last winter. Whether it’s absorbing a big salary to facilitate the acquisition of a quality youngster, taking advantage of the team’s protected first-round pick to land a QO-bound free agent who slips through the cracks, or finding some other means of buying up talent, there figure to be many opportunities for Klentak to absorb this winter.

NL East Notes: Fredi, Harper, Strasburg, Phillies, Washington

By Steve Adams | October 12, 2016 at 9:36pm CDT

The Marlins are in talks with former manager Fredi Gonzalez about their third base coach vacancy, reports MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Gonzalez, who skippered both the Marlins and Braves (who fired him earlier this season), has had multiple conversations about the possibility with the team, per Frisaro’s report. Serving as a third base coach wouldn’t be anything new for Gonzalez, as he held that post with the Braves before being hired as the Marlins’ manager in 2007. Miami is also looking to find a replacement coach for hitting coach Barry Bonds, whose contract was not renewed, as well as bullpen coach Reed Cornelius. Frisaro writes that former big league third baseman Mike Pagliarulo, who played with Marlins manager Don Mattingly as a member of the Yankees, is under consideration for the hitting coach vacancy.

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