Analytics Notes: Red Sox, Phillies
Red Sox owner John Henry spent two months “under the hood” of the team’s analytics process late last season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. What he found led to the hiring of Dave Dombrowski who is well regarded as a talent evaluator. Now the Red Sox are poised to pivot away from their past role as Moneyball with money.
Per Henry, “A lot of our advantage was purely financial. We were never as far toward analytics as people thought we were.” The club has spent the second most on payroll since 2002 which helped to mask a multitude of mistakes. In particular, Henry noted an overemphasis on using past performance to project future ability. That could be why the Sox were more bullish about Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval than other clubs. While those are just two of the most glaring examples, Henry says the same evaluative techniques failed up and down the roster. While it’s popular to quip that Boston should have signed Jon Lester or traded for Cole Hamels prior to 2015, there were too many problems with the roster.
During the Theo Epstein era, the Red Sox had a blend of scouting and analytics, but that balance may have been lost upon his departure, writes Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. However, the shift in strategy could be an overcorrection. In particular, Dombrowski is known for using trades of minor leaguers to bolster the major league club. He’s already executed one high profile move in acquiring Craig Kimbrel. The previous front office seemed to emphasize developing talent, with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Blake Swihart representing the first wave of talent.
In an interesting reversal, the Phillies are now making strides to become more analytically proficient. If the Red Sox were the team most synonymous with sabermetrics, the Phillies were usually identified as the most traditionalist club. Now the two franchises are moving in opposite directions.
Director of baseball research and development Andy Galdi will drive the analytics process in Philadelphia, writes Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. The 30-year-old former Google and YouTube employee praised the Phillies’ recent efforts in building their PHIL computer system. Galdi also mentioned the important marriage between scouting and analytics, emphasizing that the two need to work hand and hand.
Galdi believes uncertainty is the missing piece in baseball analysis. Statistics shouldn’t be used to say a player will do X. Rather a range of possibilities should be identified with scouts helping to narrow the focus. It’s important to note that all statistics come with a margin of error. For what it’s worth, sabermetricians have emphasized the importance of error margins for years.
Phillies Notes: Payroll, Prospects, Bullpen
GM Matt Klentak says the Phillies plan to do plenty of spending “under the hood” this winter, Matt Gelb of Philly.com writes. By “under the hood,” Klentak means spending that isn’t necessarily entirely public, like on analytics, scouting, player development and infrastructure. (The Phillies currently have about $77MM committed to ten big-league players and figure to come in significantly below their usual Opening Day payroll figure of $160MM or so.) Klentak also notes that the Phillies have the first pick in the June draft and have the largest bonus pool (about $5.6MM) with which to sign international amateur talent. They are not expected to incur penalties by significantly exceeding that bonus pool amount, Gelb writes; that likely makes sense, given that the Phillies figure to have a large pool next year as well and there is skepticism about the possibility of MLB establishing an international draft by then. Here’s more out of Philadelphia.
- Phillies president Andy MacPhail says the organization will learn plenty this season about how quickly it can return to being competitive, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com writes. “What we’re going to find out this year more than anything is what kind of track we’re on,” says MacPhail. “That’s going to be determined by the 25 we break with. It’s also going to be determined by how some of those next-level guys progress and how many of them demonstrated they’re ready to come to the big leagues.” MacPhail adds that the team will be careful with the promotions of top prospects (like J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson, Mark Appel, Jorge Alfaro and Roman Quinn) — the Phillies don’t want to have to demote their top youngsters after they’ve been promoted for the first time, so they want to make sure they’re sure they ready before they call them up.
- After sending Ken Giles to the Astros, the Phillies have plenty of space in their bullpen, Zolecki notes. They added David Hernandez on a big-league deal this offseason and hope to use one or perhaps more of four minor league signees — Andrew Bailey, Ernesto Frieri, Edward Mujica or James Russell — as late-inning options. Of course, Bailey pitched sparingly in 2015 and the other three had rough seasons, but all except the lefty Russell have closing experience, and the Phillies aren’t counting on all four to be successful. “I can’t say they’re all going to be as impressive,” says manager Pete Mackanin. “I’d like to believe that more than a couple guys are going to make our job difficult.”
East Notes: Gallardo, Mets, Harrison, Fernandez
Talks between the Orioles and Yovani Gallardo are still ongoing and still positive, Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports. Though it’s been quite some time since we first heard a deal was nearing completion, there’s continued optimism that an agreement can be pushed across the finish line in the days to come.
Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:
- Despite losing Jenrry Mejia to a lifetime PED ban, the Mets don’t expect to add a reliever on a major league deal, GM Sandy Alderson told reporters, including ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). If anything, Alderson suggested, a late-spring trade for a pen arm could be pursued if there was a need.
- The Phillies don’t expect lefty Matt Harrison to appear at camp this spring after a recent trip to a back specialist, GM Matt Klentak told reporters, including MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). Indeed, it would seemingly come as a surprise if he returns to pitch all season as he continues to deal with serious back issues. Harrison went to Philadelphia as part of the financial balancing in last summer’s Cole Hamels trade, and his new club would stand to recoup some insurance proceeds for whatever period he is unable to work. Though he had rather remarkably returned to the hill for Texas, Harrison hasn’t suited up since.
- Jose Fernandez of the Marlins is the next NL East ace whose post-Tommy John innings will be watched, and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports that there’s yet to be any kind of determination on the number he’ll be allowed to throw. Meanwhile, new skipper Don Mattingly indicated that a 180-inning limit has at least been batted around, as Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. The issue could have bearing not only on Miami’s prospects for the coming season, but also Fernandez’s own career trajectory and relationship with the club.
NL East Notes: Baker, Nationals, Goeddel, Hart, Braves
Dusty Baker’s remarkable life and career is profiled in an insightful piece from Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post. Baker shares several intimate details about his many professional and personal ups and downs, some responses to criticism that his managerial style is too “old-school” for today’s game, and his path back into baseball as the Nationals‘ new skipper. Here’s some more from around the NL East…
- The bullpen and defense stand out as the biggest areas of improvement for the Nationals if they’re to rebound, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson opines as part of a reader mailbag. It remains to be seen how new relief acquisitions like Shawn Kelley, Yusmeiro Petit and Trevor Gott will fare in Washington, and Ladson wonders if Jonathan Papelbon will also start to decline in his age-35 season.
- The Phillies are looking to make another big score from the Rule 5 Draft in the form of Tyler Goeddel, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury writes. Goeddel was the first pick of December’s draft, going from the Rays farm system to a shot at a regular Major League gig in the Phillies outfielder.
- In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link with an audio clip) Braves president of baseball ops John Hart said his club is “gonna be players” on the international market and they “hope to be very active.” Atlanta is expected to be perhaps the most aggressive team in the 2016-17 international signing period, as the Braves are reportedly prepared to far exceed their bonus pool limit in order to load up on premium young talent. They’ve already been linked to such notable top prospects as Venezuelan infielder Kevin Maitan and Cuban outfielder Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros.
- Liberty Media, the Braves‘ corporate ownership group, has released some documentation about the team’s finances as part of its plan to issue public shares in the Braves, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes (subscription required). It’s a very interesting behind-the-scenes look at the Braves’ financial picture, including how the team suffered quite significant operating losses over the last two years, though depreciation and amortization played a large part in putting the team in the red.
- In NL East news from earlier today on MLBTR, the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson shared the latest on the relationship between Jose Fernandez and the Marlins.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2-12-16
Here are today’s minor signings and outright assignments from around the league…
- The Phillies announced that they have outrighted left-hander Bobby LaFromboise to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after he cleared waivers. The veteran southpaw was designated for assignment when the Phillies acquired infielder Taylor Featherston from the Angels earlier this week. LaFromboise, 29, has a very strong year with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate in 2015, recording a 2.98 ERA with 8.6 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 in 54 1/3 innings, and he also tossed eight one-run frames at the Major League level as well. LaFromboise went from Pittsburgh to Anaheim by way of waiver claim and then was snatched up by the Phillies on waivers last month. He’ll be in big league camp at Spring Training as a non-roster invitee later this month, according to the team.
Phillies Designate Bobby LaFromboise
The Phillies have designated lefty Bobby LaFromboise for assignment, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. His roster spot will go to just-acquired infielder Taylor Featherston.
This move constitutes the latest in a multi-step roster shuffle for the Phils, who designated former top prospect Jesse Biddle to make space for the claim of LaFromboise. Now, they’ll look to sneak him through waivers — or, instead, watch him go to his fifth organization in the last four years.
The 29-year-old has spent most of the prior two campaigns in the Pirates organization. He posted a 2.98 ERA in 54 1/3 Triple-A innings in 2015, logging 8.6 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. And he’s contributed 11 2/3 good MLB frames to Pittsburgh over the last two seasons, allowing just two runs (on a pair of solo homers) and nine total baserunners while striking out a dozen opposing hitters in that short sample.
Phillies Acquire Taylor Featherston
The Phillies have acquired infielder Taylor Featherston from the Angels in exchange for cash or a player to be named later, Philadelphia has announced. He was recently designated for assignment by Los Angeles to clear roster space for the claim of lefty Christian Friedrich.
New Philly GM Matt Klentak was with the Halos when the organization acquired Featherston’s Rule 5 rights and carried him on the active roster for all of 2015 to obtain control. For the Phillies, Featherston could provide a near-term MLB option. After all, Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, and Andres Blanco hardly constitute the most inspiring up-the-middle unit. More likely, though, he’ll go back for his first crack at Triple-A after skipping the level in the Rule 5 process.
Featherston is viewed as a high-quality defender, and advanced fielding metrics backed that up in his limited action last year. But he’s still got some work to do at the plate. Over his first 169 MLB plate appearances, Featherston carried a lowly .162/.212/.247 triple slash. He has shown some pop and speed previously in the minors, however, and the Phils’ new-look front office obviously feels there’s some upside to take a crack at developing.
International Notes: Gurriel Bros., July 2 Spending
Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel, who reportedly defected recently with younger brother Lourdes Gurriel, may have an easier path to free agency than had been expected. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that both brothers have moved across the border from the Dominican Republic to Haiti, which is a popular launching point for Cuban players seeking to make it to the majors. (Spanish language link.) Importantly, per the report, the 31-year-old infielder has already established Panamanian residency, which might well provide a faster route to the open market since some hurdles would already be cleared. Ebro provides other interesting details on the situation of the famed elder Gurriel brother, who is apparently looking to take his last chance at playing in the majors in his prime. Though he’ll soon turn 32, Gurriel is considered a prime talent and will create an interesting market situation — remember, quality infielders such as Ian Desmond, David Freese, and Juan Uribe remain unsigned — if and when he is deemed eligible to sign. The younger Lourdes, meanwhile, still appears likely to wait until October to ink an agreement, when he’ll be old enough to fall ouside of international signing restrictions.
Here are some more notes on the international market:
- The Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Rangers are expected to have an active year in the coming July 2 market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports, though it’s not yet clear to what extent any of those teams will be willing to go past their pool allocation. We’ve already heard that the Braves, Nationals, and Padres are expected to make significant moves this summer, likely incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international spending limits. With numerous big spenders on the sidelines after blowing past their own caps in prior years, there’s some opportunity for other clubs to step in and seek to sign their own slate of talented youngsters out of Latin America.
- Sanchez goes on to discuss the market more generally, explaining that expectations are the non-Cuban market will produce a few significant bonuses (around $3MM to $4MM) with several other players receiving seven-figure paydays as well. He further notes that there figures to be quite a bit of competition as teams capped at $300K bonuses look to add lower-bonus names. The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees are halfway through their two-year restricted periods, while the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Royals are set to join them for the coming signing period.
- There’s a notable showcase event being held today in Santo Domingo that will feature many of the players being targeted by the aforementioned teams, as Sanchez further reports. 59 prospects from seven nations will be there, including top Venezuelan youngster Kevin Maitan (who is favored to sign with the Braves). Other intriguing players are on hand, per Sanchez, including Mexican outfielder Tirso Ornelas, Panamanian righty Edisson Gonzalez, and Dominican outfielder Jeisson Rosario.
Lazaro Armenteros Weighing Offers
Highly touted Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) will spend the next 24 hours mulling his options and is expected to decide on a team tomorrow, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Lazaro himself told Sanchez recently that he hoped to make a decision tomorrow, though he left open the possibility that the decision process could take longer. “I’m planning on making a decision on [Wednesday], but only God knows what will happen and when I will sign,” Armenteros said to Sanchez. “I’m not worried about it. I’m just waiting on the right opportunity.” The ballyhooed 16-year-old is drawing serious interest from nine clubs, according to Sanchez, including the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres and Phillies.
Of that group, the Braves, Phillies and Padres would need to either exceed their 2015-16 international bonus pool in order to sign Lazarito or convince him to wait until the 2016-17 international signing period before signing. Both the Braves and Padres have been said to be planning on vastly overshooting their 2016-17 international pools, and Sanchez notes that the Phillies are in a similar boat, as they’re expected to have an impressive class of international signings next period as well. Signing Lazarito in the current period would prevent any of those three clubs from following through on those plans, as his bonus would force the teams into penalty territory and bar them from signing a player for more than $300K in the 2016-17 class (and again in the 2017-18 class, for that matter). Each team almost certainly has verbal agreements already in place with international amateurs, which would have to be broken in order to sign Armenteros.
Thus far in the 2015-16 signing period, the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals have incurred maximum penalties by overshooting their pools, meaning that the only cost to one of those four clubs would be purely financial. (Armenteros’ bonus plus a 100 percent luxury tax on the amount for which he signs.) Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks and Rays would all be ineligible to sign Armenteros after exceeding their 2014-15 bonus pools and incurring spending penalties on this year’s class and the 2016-17 class of international free agents.
Armenteros was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball a little over a month ago and has since hosted an open showcase in addition to private workouts for multiple clubs, the most recent of which came on Monday, per Sanchez (though he lists the team involved in that private workout as “undisclosed”). Armenteros has worked out as both a center fielder and corner outfielder, drawing praise for his power, speed and athleticism. Sanchez ranks him eighth among international prospects and second among those that have not already signed, although the current iteration of his rankings does not include the Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (who has not yet been declared a free agent) or any international free agent that is exempt from international bonus pools. In his scouting reports, Sanchez notes that there’s a wide variance in scouts’ opinions on Lazarito’s arm, and some scouts have questioned how his “muscular college-football-player body” will look as he continues to grow. Armenteros is already listed at 6’2″ and 205 pounds, and if he continues to add to that frame, a move to the corner outfield certainly seems like a reasonable outcome.
NL Notes: Arrieta, Pirates, Phillies
Now is the time for the Cubs to try to sign ace Jake Arrieta to a long-term deal, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes. Arrieta and the Cubs recently agreed on a one-year, $10.7MM contract to avoid arbitration in Arrieta’s second year of eligibility. Arrieta can currently become a free agent after the 2017 season. Of course, Arrieta’s agent Scott Boras would surely agree that an extension for Arrieta shouldn’t be cheap after his Cy Young award-winning 2015 season, and since Arrieta turns 30 next month, he might only have one shot at a big free agent deal, meaning he might not be inclined to sign now unless the deal is quite long. Also, Arrieta’s incredible stretch run changed the landscape since we last closely considered his extension candidacy. Levine proposes a four-year deal at an average of $23MM per season, with two club options. While it’s true that Arrieta’s salaries for the next two seasons are essentially set via the arbitration process, a $92MM deal with options would, in my opinion, be unlikely to bring Boras and Arrieta to the table. Recent history suggests Arrieta has a shot at a deal in the $200MM range if he waits until after 2017. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Pirates won 98 games last season and have a strong core in place, but many of their top competitors in the National League have improved, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. The Cubs have had a busy and productive offseason, and while the Cardinals have lost talent (some of it to their rivals in Chicago), they should benefit somewhat from better luck with injuries. The rest of the league, too, has become increasingly polarized, with several very bad teams, but lots of potentially strong ones, including the Mets, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks. The Bucs, however, continue to believe in themselves. “There’s no question the Cubs did a fantastic job on balancing amateur player acquisition and timing it with those young players being ready to hit the major league level and then pouring a ton of money into free agency,” says Pirates GM Neal Huntington. “They are going to be good going forward. The Cardinals are going to be good going forward. Our belief is, with this core that we have, that we are going to continue to be good going forward.”
- The Phillies don’t figure to be one of the NL contenders in 2016. They should, however, be fun, as FanGraphs’ Paul Swydan writes. They suddenly have only a handful of over-30 players, and the younger ones offer a mix of power (Maikel Franco), defensive ability (Odubel Herrera), speed (Cesar Hernandez) and, among the Phillies’ young pitchers, control (Aaron Nola). Then there’s top prospect J.P. Crawford, who could make his debut in 2016, along with a number of other very interesting minor leaguers, including Nick Williams, Andrew Knapp, Dylan Cozens, Jake Thompson, Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel.