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Quick Hits: Hamilton, Indians, Cardinals, Rockies

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Links from around baseball..

  • David Lennon of Newsday ran down his predictions for the top free agents on this winter's market.  Lennon sees Josh Hamilton landing with the Brewers on a five-year deal and B.J. Upton getting a six-year pact from the Phillies.  Of course, MLBTR readers can put themselves in the mix for great prizes in our second annual free agent prediction contest.
  • The Indians should follow the example of the Athletics and overhaul their team this offseason, opines ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Insider sub. req'd).  Olney suggests that Cleveland can start the fire sale by trading shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera to a team such as the A's, Mariners, Red Sox, or Yankees.
  • Speaking of the Tribe, Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer looks at how a tight financial situation and bad trades combined to hurt the Indians in recent years.
  • MLBTR has learned that Orioles left-hander Zach Phillips has rejected his outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk and elected free agency.  Phillips, 26, posted a 3.17 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 in 42 Triple-A outings last season.
  • The Cardinals may pursue short-term fixes at both shortstop and second base rather than entrust their depth to organizational players such as Pete Kozma, Ryan Jackson, or Kolten Wong, writes Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • The Rockies could decide on their new manager early this week, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post.  Bench coach Tom Runnells, veteran slugger Jason Giambi, former Rockies shortstop Walt Weiss, and current Diamondbacks third base coach Matt Williams make up the club's final four of candidates.
  • Scott Boras takes a few minutes out of his busy schedule to chat with FOXSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi about the offseason and how new television revenue will fuel spending over the next few months.
  • While strong numbers during a contract year may benefit free agents, teams aren't guaranteed to see a repeat performance from their new investments the following season, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. 

Daniel Seco contributed to this post.

Quick Hits: Bourn, Upton, Colon, Payrolls, Phillies

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Friday is the last day that teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their impending free agents, and then the offseason signing frenzy will begin.  You can get in on the action (and possibly win some cool prizes) by entering the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest and making your best guess as to where this winter's top available players will land.  Get your picks in now as the deadline for entries and edits is coming up on November 7. 

Not to brag, but I've held at least a share of first place amongst the MLBTR staff in our own internal competition each of the last two years…wait, that "not to brag" wasn't accurate at all.  That was totally bragging.  Though, as a wise man once said, "if you can back it up, it ain't braggin'."  Here are a few notes from around the majors as I pat myself on the back…

  • The Nationals are considered the favorites to sign Michael Bourn while the Phillies "are an early favorite" to sign B.J. Upton, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Heyman sees Bourn getting a five-year, $80MM contract while Upton is in line for at least a five-year, $60MM deal.
  • Roman Colon is suing J.D. Smart, his former agent, and Smart's former bosses at Hendricks Sports Management for allegedly failing to inform him about a new contract offer with the Korean Baseball League's KIA Tigers, reports Darren Heitner of the Sports Agent Blog.  Colon pitched for the KIA Tigers in 2010 and then signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers in January 2011, a contract Colon said he never would have signed had he known about the new offer from KIA.
  • Smaller-market teams that have to "overpay" for free agents only dig themselves in deeper holes, writes Fangraphs' Dave Cameron, as these clubs often find themselves committing too much payroll space to players that can't live up to those larger contracts.
  • Former Phillies Shane Victorino, Brett Myers and Ryan Madson could all be intriguing choices to return to Philadelphia and fill some holes in the current roster, writes Ryan Lawrence of the Philadelphia Daily News.

Quick Hits: Ankiel, Dempster, Towles, Bourn

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If you haven’t done so already, be sure to check out Tim Dierkes’ list of the top 50 free agents for the upcoming offseason. The list includes Tim’s predictions for each player, and we’d like you to join us in predicting the destinations for the top 50 free agents. You can make your picks here. Now for this afternoon’s links…

  • Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears Rick Ankiel is open to giving pitching another shot. The Cardinals could be among the teams willing to give Ankiel another chance on the mound. Ankiel pitched for the Cardinals from 1999-2004, putting together a strong season as a 20-year-old in 2000. He returned to the big leagues as a hitter in 2007.
  • The Cubs have been in contact with Ryan Dempster’s agent about the possibility of a contract, Carrie Muskat of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). The Cubs traded the LSW baseball client to the Rangers midseason and he’s now a free agent (he can't sign with a team other than Texas until Saturday).
  • Catcher J.R. Towles left Hendricks Sports for agent Burton Rocks, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (on Twitter). Our Agency Database has current information on the agents of most MLB players.
  • Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com hears word that Michael Bourn could be looking for as much as $100MM in free agency. The Phillies would probably be reluctant to spend that kind of money on a 30-year-old player who relies heavily on his legs, Salisbury writes.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports previews the destinations for a number of the offseason’s top free agents.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies must acquire at least one outfielder and pursue upgrades at third base.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Free Agents

The Phillies are in unfamiliar territory this offseason. Their streak of consecutive division titles has ended at five, and the Nationals and Braves are now the teams to beat in the NL East. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. will pursue outfielders and third basemen this offseason, as the Phillies attempt to re-establish themselves as one of the premier teams in the National League.

Cliff Lee - Phillies (PW)

Just a few months after trading Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence the Phillies need outfielders. Fortunately for Amaro, the free agent market features a strong class of outfielders this offseason. The Phillies should have the resources to bid for top free agents after spending approximately $170MM on payroll in both of the past two seasons.

No free agent matches Josh Hamilton in terms of potential impact. The Phillies could be a fit the free agent outfielder, and we know Amaro likes to make splashes — sometimes unexpected ones. That doesn't always mean bidding on the top free agent available, however. Former Phillies outfielder Michael Bourn could be a target, and so could free agents such as Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton.

Alternatively, the Phillies could rely on John Mayberry in center field and pursue a corner outfielder such as Melky Cabrera or Nick Swisher. They have internal outfield options in Mayberry, Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf, but that's probably not enough certainty for a team that sees itself as a contender.

If the Phillies look to the trade market for outfield depth, they could pursue players such as Shin-Soo Choo, Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Coco Crisp, Justin Upton, Peter Bourjos and Jacoby Ellsbury. They have lots of options given the outfield depth in the upcoming free agent class and their ability to take on payroll.

Upgrading at third base won't be as easy. The Phillies declined their $5.5MM club option for Placido Polanco and will instead outside of the organization for help at the hot corner (no, Chase Utley won't shift over to third). There's not much available in free agency, with Kevin Youkilis leading an unremarkable free agent class. 

Some intriguing trade options could emerge at third base. Chase Headley and David Wright are now viewed as extension candidates following tremendous seasons. If contract talks don't go as planned and one of these players becomes available, the Phillies should attempt to strike a deal. Acquiring Wright would presumably be extremely difficult since he plays in the Phillies' division. The Phillies do have some internal options at third in Freddy Galvis and Kevin Frandsen.

Cliff Lee drew trade interest this past summer despite a contract that calls for annual salaries of $25MM through 2015. If the Phillies determine that they're getting to close to the MLB luxury tax, they could trade Lee and clear payroll. The Dodgers and Rangers are two of the many teams that would presumably have some interest in the left-hander. Still, the Phillies would have to get an impact player to justify trading Lee, who who has pitched at least 210 innings in every one of the past five seasons without posting an ERA over 3.25.

The Phillies exercised Carlos Ruiz's option immediately after the season, while declining the options for Polanco, Ty Wigginton and Jose Contreras. Free agents Brian Schneider and Juan Pierre are also expected to depart (obviously without the qualifying offers that would set the Phillies up for draft pick compensation).

The Phillies have a small arbitration class featuring just three players. It won't be surprising if all three — Frandsen, Nate Schierholtz and Antonio Bastardo — are tendered contracts, though none are considered extension candidates. There's a chance Schierholtz will be non-tendered. The Phillies could consider an extension for Ruiz, who will be eligible for free agency a year from now. Even though he's 33, adding one or two years to his existing contract could make sense given his offensive skills.

Amaro has said he regrets not doing more to bolster the bullpen last offseason. While Philadelphia's relievers pitched better in the second half, they're expected to pursue a setup reliever this winter. Perhaps a free agent such as Jason Grilli, Mike Adams or Koji Uehara will join the Phillies in the next couple of months.

If the Phillies obtain outfield help and address third base while adding to the bullpen, they'll have had a successful offseason. Still, the Phillies will enter the 2013 season with questions about the health of prominent players such as Utley and Halladay. This team’s hopes of contending in 2013 seem legitimate, but the Phillies are no longer the force they once were.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Ryan Madson Declines Mutual Option

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Ryan Madson has declined his half of a mutual option for 2013, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The option was worth $11MM, and he'll instead receive a $2.5MM buyout.

Madson, 32, did not pitch at all in 2012 due to Tommy John surgery after signing a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Reds last winter. From 2009-2011 he pitched to a 2.78 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, however. The Phillies have some interest in bringing Madson back for next year according to Heyman, but the right-hander will seek a job closing.

Phillies Decline Placido Polanco’s Option

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The Phillies have declined their half of Placido Polanco's $5.5MM mutual option, the team has announced. Polanco will instead receive a $1MM buyout and become a free agent.

Polanco, who turned 37 shortly after the regular season ended, earned $6.25MM in 2012 — the final guaranteed season of a three-year, $18MM contract he signed back in December 2009.

The veteran struggled to the tune of a .257/.302/.327 batting line with a mere two home runs. A pair of back injuries led to two stints on the disabled list, limiting Polanco to 90 games. That total was his lowest since playing a partial season for the Cardinals at age 23 in 1999.

His defense remained a plus according to both UZR (+8.1 runs per 150 games) and the Fielding Bible (+2 runs). Polanco shifted to third base after signing with Philadelphia to accommodate Chase Utley, but he has extensive experience at second base as well.

For his career, the ACES client is a .299/.344/.403 hitter. He's split his Major League service time between the Cardinals, Phillies and Tigers. Earlier today, the Phils picked up their option on Carlos Ruiz and declined their options on Ty Wigginton and Jose Contreras.

Phillies Decline Options For Wigginton, Contreras

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The Phillies announced that they declined the contract options for Ty Wigginton and Jose Contreras. Both players obtain $500K buyouts and become free agents.

Contreras, 40, spent most of the 2012 season on the disabled list. He didn't pitch after June 2nd, when the Phillies placed him on the DL with a torn elbow ligament. His option was worth $2.5MM.

Wigginton appeared in 125 games this past season, playing first base, third base and left field. The 35-year-old posted a .235/.314/.375 batting line with 11 home runs in 360 plate appearances. Wigginton's two-year, $8MM contract with the Phillies included a $4MM team option for 2013.

The Phillies exercised the option of catcher Carlos Ruiz earlier today. They have two more days to decide whether to exercise Placido Polanco's option. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is expected to decline.

Phillies Exercise 2013 Option For Carlos Ruiz

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The Phillies exercised their 2013 option for Carlos Ruiz, Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports (on Twitter). As expected, the catcher will earn $5MM in 2013 instead of a $500K buyout.

Ruiz, 33, posted a .325/.394/.540 batting line with a career-high 16 home runs in 421 plate appearances this past season. Exercising the All-Star catcher's option appears to have been an easy decision. All option decisions must be in within three days of the end of the World Series.

Sherman on Mets, Phillies, Cabrera, Olivo, Shoppach

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Even in the middle of the World Series, baseball people continue to talk about embattled Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  News on Cabrera and other notes from today’s column..

  • Sherman spoke with a group of baseball executives about where Cabrera will sign and the Mets and Phillies both came up regularly.  The Mets could look to Cabrera as corner outfield insurance against Jason Bay and Lucas Duda if he is affordable.  Such a move would make even more sense if they are unable to retain Scott Hairston.
  • The majority of the execs see Cabrera winding up with a one-year deal in the $2-$5MM range to audition himself.  One exec could see him getting $10-$12MM while another said he could possibly get one year at $8-10MM.
  • The Mets are unlikely to obtain catcher Kelly Shoppach and they are instead eyeing free agent Miguel Olivo.  When the Mets were combing the trade market for catchers this summer, the Mets had Olivo as a secondary candidate to the Rockies’ Ramon Hernandez before ultimately trading for Shoppach. The Mariners announced on Wednesday that they would not pick up Olivo’s $3MM option for 2013.
  • Yankees officials never saw Cabrera as a negative influence on Robinson Cano the way that people outside of the organization did, but he doesn’t look to be a great fit regardless.  The Yankees might not be able to offer the certainty of playing time that Cabrera will need to rebuild his value.

Arbitration Eligibles: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

Bastardo's high strikeout/walk/flyball rate formula was less effective for him on the surface this year, given the significant increase in his ERA.  43 holds over the past two seasons should still enable him to exceed $1MM as a first-timer.  Frandsen had a nice campaign in 210 plate appearances, and has probably earned a spot on next year's team.

Schierholtz, 28, came to the Phillies in their trade deadline Hunter Pence deal but totaled only 73 plate appearances for his new club.  He missed time with a broken toe, and is a non-tender candidate.

Assuming Bastardo and Frandsen are tendered contracts, the Phillies are looking at an estimated $1.9MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

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