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Amaro Talks Phillies Offseason

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Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked about the Phillies' offseason at a news conference today, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer have quotes.

  • Amaro said he wants Jayson Werth back and the Phillies can afford him, but he expects talks to go deep into the offseason.  He'll make contact with Scott Boras over the next 48 hours.  Despite the prolonged timeframe, Amaro seems to want to address the Werth situation first: "We're not going to feel comfortable on anything until we know where we stand on Werth and go from there."  Werth, for his part, said he's "open to anything" but "this is definitely a business."
  • Amaro downplayed Werth's season, saying, "Jayson had a good year. It wasn't an extraordinary year.  He had a tough time with men in scoring position. It wasn't as productive a year as he had in the past."  I wonder if Boras feels the same way. 
  • Kyle Kendrick's work as the team's fifth starter was described as "a pretty good performance," implying that the 26-year-old will be tendered a contract and the 2011 rotation is settled.
  • The Phillies exercised Jimmy Rollins' 2011 option in December of 2009, but his next contract will probably be discussed after the '11 season.

Odds & Ends: Alderson, Marte, Jeter, Mets, Werth

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Some links to check out as San Francisco recovers from celebrating Brian Wilson's strikeout of Ryan Howard, which sent the Giants to the World Series…

  • Over at RotoAuthority, Tim Dierkes lists some Baltimore Orioles to watch for your fantasy team next season.
  • ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin re-posted a selection of questions from a 2008 interview conducted with current Mets' GM candidate Sandy Alderson. Very interesting read. 
  • Damaso Marte underwent shoulder surgery this weekend and won't begin throwing until after the 2011 All-Star Break, writes MLB.com's Dan Mennella. If the Yankees want to look for some low-budget options, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at some bargain southpaws last week.
  • Joel Sherman looks at the delicate situation that is Derek Jeter's free agency. Sherman concludes that Jeter is more valuable to the Yankees than to other teams, and that the 37-year-old will have to accept that it's not a "divine right" that he hit at the top of the order and play 150 games per season if his production doesn't improve. According to Sherman, Jeter's numbers may only warrant a one-year, $7MM deal or so on the open market, but the Yankees will bid higher. He offers up a speculative three-year, $45MM deal.
  • ESPN's Adam Rubin says the Diamondbacks will be pulling for Josh Byrnes to win the Mets' GM opening, as any money the Mets pay him will be deducted from what Byrnes is still owed from his five-year contract with Arizona. Potentially saving $1MM or so annually on their GM may be a factor if the two candidates end up being neck-and-neck, according to Rubin.
  • Jayson Werth's teammates don't see him returning to the Phillies next season, tweets SI's Jon Heyman.
  • Curt Young has declined the Athletics' offer to return as the club's pitching coach and will pursue another opportunity, according to a team press release. The San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser speculates that he might be joining former Oakland colleague Terry Francona in Boston. That would make sense, given Toronto's decision to hire John Farrell. Slusser says the A's offered Young a raise of nearly 40% on a one-year deal.
  • The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, however, tweets that Young is likely on his way to the Diamondbacks' organization.
  • For A's fans thinking this could mean a reunion with Rick Peterson, Slusser also tweets a reminder that Peterson has one more year on his contract with Milwaukee.

Phillies Face Multiple Decisions In Offseason

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With their 2010 season officially in the books, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki examined the Phillies' decisions regarding both free agency and arbitration this offseason. Here are some highlights:

  • The Phillies and Jayson Werth will both say they have interest in working something out, and while that's probably true, Zolecki agrees with the common belief that Werth will be playing elsewhere in 2011. The Phillies already have $145MM committed to 16 players in 2011, and Werth's probable $15MM+ salary will be too much to add on.
  • J.C. Romero's option will probably be declined due to the left-hander's injury problems and control issues (7.1 BB/9 the past two seasons).
  • Jose Contreras could be this season's Chan Ho Park. Both pitched well out of the Philadelphia bullpen, but in doing so significantly raised their stock. Contreras could be in line for more money than Philadelphia wants to offer. Zolecki does note that Contreras' best friend and fellow Cuban, Danys Baez, is under contract for 2011, so that may help sway Contreras.
  • Chad Durbin is 50-50 on whether or not he'd take less money than he could get on the open market to stay with the Phils. As Zolecki points out, this could be Durbin's only chance to secure a decent multiyear deal.
  • Jamie Moyer, Mike Sweeney, and Greg Dobbs are all unlikely to be brought back.
  • Ben Francisco will almost certainly be tendered a contract, and could platoon with Domonic Brown. Kyle Kendrick is due a raise and could be non-tendered and then re-signed at a more affordable price.

Minor Deal, Major Impact: Unheralded Moves Pay Off

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The Yankees probably wouldn't be in the ALCS if they hadn't spent big on Mark Teixeira and C.C. Sabathia. The Giants probably wouldn't be in the NLCS if they hadn't drafted Buster Posey and Tim Lincecum. But less celebrated moves also contributed to the success of the four teams in the LCS. Here's a closer look at four acquisitions that have shaped this year's pennant race:

  • As I wrote in September, the Giants' decision to sign Pat Burrell to a minor league deal changed the NL West from that point on. Not only did the Giants get 18 home runs and a .266/.364/.509 line from the slugger, they kept him away from the Padres and kept their division rivals out of the playoffs. This is about as impactful as a minor league deal gets.
  • When the Yankees signed Marcus Thames to a minor league deal, they probably weren't expecting him to hit .288/.350/.491, but that's exactly what he did. Brian Cashman deserves credit for adding Thames to Joe Girardi's bench.
  • Wilson Valdez, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies last fall, didn't hit like Burrell or Thames, but he played second when Chase Utley was injured and short when Jimmy Rollins got hurt. He didn't hit badly, either, posting a .258/.306/.360 line.
  • None of the Rangers minor league deals (Alex Cora, Endy Chavez, Mark Prior and others) made a difference at the major league level this year, but a look back at GM Jon Daniels' first Rule 5 draft reveals a decision that's looking smart now: the Rangers plucked Alexi Ogando from the A's in the 2005 Rule 5 draft. The right-hander has yet to allow a run in two postseason appearances, after posting a 1.30 ERA in the regular season.

 

Discussion: Jimmy Rollins’ Next Contract

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Much has been written about what the Yankees will do with Derek Jeter’s pending free agency and how much the Yankee captain will earn even though he’s coming off a down year and may not be able to continue for much longer at the shortstop position.  The catch, however, is that nobody expects Jeter to play anywhere but in New York and even if the Yankees overpay him, they can afford it for a franchise icon.

This scenario could replay itself in the 2011-12 offseason, though with more dramatic consequences.  Jimmy Rollins will be a free agent after 2011 and while Rollins is almost as beloved in Philadelphia as Jeter is in the Big Apple, Rollins’ sharper decline may give the Phillies a tough choice to make next winter.

Rollins is coming off an injury-plagued 2010 campaign that saw him only hit .243/.320/.374 in 394 plate appearances.  While this season could be explained by his calf and hamstring problems, Rollins wasn’t much more effective in 2009 (.250/.296/.423) when he led the majors with 725 PAs.  Perhaps as a vote of confidence, the Phils picked up Rollins’ $8.5MM option for 2011 following that disappointing 2009 season, but the club have to be having second thoughts about that move given how Rollins played this season.  One bright side: Rollins had a 12.3 UZR/150 rating in 2010, the second-best mark of his career.

Back in April, in the wake of Ryan Howard’s massive extension, MLBTR’s Luke Adams looked at how Rollins’ future in Philadelphia might be impacted by Howard’s deal.  Adams concluded that the Phillies would probably extend Rollins, but “If Rollins does receive a multi-year, big-money extension though, the Phillies’ financial flexibility will take yet another hit.”  MLBTR’s Howard Megdal agreed, painting a rather dire picture of Philadelphia’s payroll in 2012 and beyond.

Looking at the situation now, Raul Ibanez and Brad Lidge’s contracts almost surely be off the books after 2011; Ibanez is a free agent, Lidge has a $1.5MM buyout option.  Jayson Werth is at best a 50-50 proposition to be re-signed, since the Phillies have Domonic Brown waiting in the wings. 

Added to the equation, however, is Roy Oswalt’s $16MM team option for 2012.  Though Oswalt will turn 35 in 2012, the right-hander has showed no signs of slowing down.  Given the choice between having Oswalt or a 33-year-old shortstop with a sub-.700 OPS, I think both the Phillies and their fans would prefer to see Oswalt back in the fold over Rollins if a choice had to be made.  Philadelphia isn’t a small market by any means, but they certainly don’t have a Yankee-esque payroll that allows them to throw big money at everyone.

That said, Rollins’ decline in production could actually increase his chances of retiring as a Phillie if it lowers his asking price.  Rather than a big-money contract, Rollins and the team could agree to an incentive-filled deal that stretches over three seasons and pays him around $9MM a year in guaranteed money.  It gives the Phillies some flexibility, Rollins the chance to still earn extra cash if he reaches his incentives and both sides a PR win — the club for doing right by a Phillie hero and Rollins for not seeking an unrealistically big contract if he continues to decline.  

Is $9MM a season still too much for a shortstop that had a lower OPS than Ian Desmond, Marco Scutaro or (by 16 points) even Derek Jeter this season?  Probably, but as Yankees fans can tell you, there’s something to be said for overpaying a home-grown, World Series-winning star.  

Odds & Ends: Ross, Hale, Daniels, Mets, Coaches

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Some links to check out as Cody Ross attempts to follow up yesterday's two-home run performance and the Phillies look to even the score…

Davidoff On Alderson, Valentine, Takahashi

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In his latest piece for Newsday, Ken Davidoff notes that Bud Selig's job as commissioner occasionally involves making recommendations for teams searching for general managers. Selig recommended Jack Zduriencik when the Mariners were looking for a GM two years ago, and, more recently, gave Fred Wilpon a list of suggestions for the Mets. Given the "close ties" between Selig and Wilpon, the commissioner's backing of Sandy Alderson could carry significant weight. Here are the other items of interest from Davidoff's article:

  • Although he has interviewed for multiple managerial positions, Bobby Valentine may end up back at ESPN next year rather than in a major league dugout. The Mets are still a possibility for Valentine, but if Alderson becomes the GM, he figures to make a cheaper, lower-profile hire.
  • Potential free agent Hisanori Takahashi is open to remaining a reliever, meaning he won't necessarily seek out a situation where he has a chance to start.
  • The last report we heard on Takahashi suggested that he'd prefer to remain a Met. However, Davidoff indicates the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers also "intrigue" the Japanese lefty.

Odds & Ends: Listach, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Hill

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Saturday evening linkage as the Phillies and Giants kick off the NLCS…

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/10/16/SPJO1FT26N.DTL

Odds & Ends: Lee, Alderson, Choo, Lowrie

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As the ALCS gets underway, let's look at some news from around the majors…

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Halladay, Fielder, Mets

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On this date two years ago, the Cubs exercised Rich Harden's $9MM option for 2009 after tests showed that his throwing shoulder was healthy. Harden made 26 starts with a 4.09 ERA, 10.9 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 141 innings that year before joining the Rangers in the offseason. The 28-year-old battled through another injury plagued year in 2010, throwing just 92 innings with a 5.58 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 6.3 BB/9 for Texas.

Harden might not be able to find a guaranteed Major League deal on the free agent market this winter, but I can guarantee that these links represent the best from around the blogosphere…

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