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Buster Olney Drops Uncommon Trade Thoughts

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Buster Olney talks trade in his latest insider-only piece. Let’s have a look at the guys he names.

  • Ryan Howard. This is a tough one. Philly is in second place right now, and they should be in contention throughout the year. Howard has started poorly, but you can figure a rebound. While the Phillies might not be eager to pay Howard $25 to $30MM over the next two years, some other team might. I figure they could get a decent haul from, say, the Angels. Still, it’s hard to justify trading away your best power hitter (at least in name) while you’re vying for a playoff berth. The odds are long, very long for this one.
  • Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. No way, no how. Then again, Phillies fans are probably saying the same about Howard. The Yanks stagnant offense figures to improve once A-Rod returns next week and Jorge Posada gets back behind the dish next month. But Matsui leads the team in average, OBP, and slugging, while Damon is second in OBP. Unless the Yanks fall out of contention, there’s no way they’re trading these guys. Even so, they’re a pair of 34-year-old outfielders making $13 million a season, with 2009 guaranteed. There’s no way a team will offer anything close to equal value.
  • Ben Sheets. If the Brewers are going to contend this year, they’re going to need Sheets in the rotation. However, they’re 16-17 right now, and likely won’t see Yovani Gallardo for the rest of the season. The Brewers likely won’t keep Sheets after this year, anyway, so if they’re still in the middle of the pack, they can use the oft-injured ace to reload on players that can help them next year. Their lineup is still very young, with only two regulars over the age of 28. An influx of pitching could set them up well for next year.

Joe Pawlikowski writes for River Ave. Blues, a Yankees blog.

Odds & Ends: Kennedy, Rays, Bonds, Wagner

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And now for something completely different, Odds and Ends:

  • ESPN reports that the Yankees optioned Ian Kennedy to Triple-A.  To take his place, they recalled Darrell Rasner who in 5 Triple-A games is 4-0 with 0.87 ERA and 27 K in 31 IP.  Kennedy relies on control and control he has had not.  He has the highest percentage of working into hitters counts of anyone in the bigs.
  • The Rays are the first team ever to hold the first pick in back-to-back years, and unlike last year when they selected David Price without thinking twice, they are presently undecided.  According to Marc Lancaster, "It’s a safe bet their choice will come from the following pool: Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, Griffin (Ga.) High SS Tim Beckham, Florida State C Buster Posey, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow, University of San Diego LHP Brian Matusz and Riverside (Calif.) Patriot High C Kyle Skipworth."
  • Art Spander in the Oakland Tribune calls on Billy Beane to sign Barry Bonds.  Mike Sweeney and Frank Thomas aren’t enough.  Says Spander, "[Bonds] still can put balls in the seats and… butts in the seats. As opposed to you putting a tarp over them. The A’s have to stop being a secret and start becoming an attraction."
  • Brian Cashman: Phillies GM?  So speculates Jim Salisbury.  With no Johan but an injured Phil Hughes and ineffective Ian Kennedy, Cashman could find himself jettisoned by default from the organization should they miss the playoffs.  Pat Gillick’s contract is up after this year and Cashman once looked favorably on that gig.  But if you ask me, Mr. Salisbury is getting way ahead of himself.
  • Billy Wagner tells the New York Post’s Steve Serby that he expects to retire after 2009.  And he still hasn’t had a bagel.  That blows my mind.

By Nat Boyle

Phils Still Looking For Lefty Relief Help

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David Murphy quotes Phillies GM Pat Gillick as saying he’s still looking for lefthanded relief help.  Recently signed lefty Steve Kline is in the mix to fill the role, but isn’t a lock.  Kline’s currently with the Phils’ Triple A club.

The Pirates’ John Grabow would be a nice addition; he’s thrown twelve scoreless innings.  Damaso Marte is also probably available.  Ron Mahay, George Sherrill, Scott Schoeneweis, Jamie Walker, and Royce Ring are other possibilities in my mind.  But since the Phils already have J.C. Romero doing a nice job, maybe they’ll just pick up a lower-cost guy like Ray King or Mike Stanton.

Stark’s Latest: Oswalt, Tejada, Upton, Burrell

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Check out the latest column from ESPN’s Jayson Stark.

  • Stark talked to one exec who believed the Astros’ baseball people might consider a Roy Oswalt trade, but owner Drayton McLane never would.
  • The exec also questioned whether the Astros would’ve given up a bounty of five players to acquire Miguel Tejada if they’d known the player’s true age.
  • Stark implies that the Upton brothers are eyeing big bucks and aren’t likely to sign extensions.
  • Stark’s sources believe the Phillies will offer Pat Burrell something like two years and $14MM.  He’ll probably want significantly more than that.

Odds and Ends: Burrell, Pedro, Fukudome

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Today’s link collection.

  • Jon Heyman notes that Pat Burrell only wanted to go to the Yankees or Red Sox when the Phillies tried to trade him a few years ago.  They’re not great fits, but perhaps Burrell will have those two clubs at the top of his list when he hits free agency.
  • Ross Newhan looks at the Dodgers’ trade of Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields.  He rates it the worst in franchise history.  He also names the Brad Penny acquisition as the fourth-worst.
  • Josh Kalk takes a look at Kosuke Fukudome’s hot start for RotoAuthority.
  • The Dodgers and Juan Castro have mutual interest.

2008 Draft: Philadelphia Phillies

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We’ll be looking at the 2008 draft over the next few months here at MLBTR. Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies assistant GM, took some questions from fans regarding the draft and the team’s farm system. Here are the highlights:

  • When asked what positions the Phils are seeking, Arbuckle gave the right answer. "You have to be very careful about trying to draft toward a particular position, simply because of the time it takes to develop players to get to the big leagues…So you try to draft the best available player in each round, the guy that we would view as having the highest ceiling."
  • On the slotting system: "I think generally we have been a club and are a club that tries to do what’s best for the industry." The Phillies have generally stayed within the vicinity of slot.
  • On college players vs. high school players: "In comparing high school to college players, generally the college player is nearer to being the finished product. So you can’t project as much on a college player as you would a high school player."
  • On the Phillies farm system: "I think the strength is double-A down, so I think our better prospects are younger kids."

Arbuckle was noncommittal when asked about what the team plans to do with Pat Burrell when the season is over. He also gives some takes on specific players in the Phillies system.

Posted by Joe Pawlikowski .

Odds and Ends: Tejada, Howard, Johnson

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Couple more odds and ends this evening…

  • Orioles executive VP Mike Flanagan admitted he wouldn’t have signed Miguel Tejada to a six-year deal if he knew the shortstop’s proper age.  But he still would’ve signed him (if possible).  People are debating whether ESPN ambushed Tejada with his birth certificate…of course they did.
  • Ken Rosenthal believes the optimal course of action for the Phillies is to just let Ryan Howard play out the string and then let him walk as a free agent after the 2011 season.
  • Rays Index says the Dan Johnson acquisition signals a "win-now" attitude for the Rays.

Stark’s Latest: Stanton, Hamels

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up.

  • The Rays may have a pitching surplus when Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza return in May.  Teams will probably be eyeing Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, and Andy Sonnanstine – not that the Rays are anxious to give them up.  Jackson seems least likely to go.  If I had to pick a team deficiency perhaps it would be their middle infielders.
  • The Phillies have "mild interest" in Mike Stanton, who would like to play for them.  The Phils already inked Steve Kline to a minor league deal though.
  • The Braves are looking for relief help, as you might expect.  Here’s my available relievers list from April 7th; one addition might be Derrick Turnbow. 
  • Stark sees little chance of the Phillies signing Cole Hamels to an extension.  He notes that Hamels’ agent has demonstrated an aversion to club options for free agent years.  If the Phils just want to buy out the three arbitration years, the going rate is $13.75MM for young starters.
  • For the first time this year, top-rated amateur players will be tested for drugs prior to the draft.  It will be nice to nip the problem in the bud with some guys. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Pat Burrell

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Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell was awesome in July and August of last year.  Outside of that, he was just decent.  He’s off to a blazing start in his first 14 games of 2008.  He turns 32 in October and can explore free agency after the season.

Burrell is earning $14MM this year.  Which players might serve as comparables for Burrell’s next deal?  Carlos Lee is similar, though he was a few years younger when he reached free agency in ’06.  Lee received $16.6MM per year for six years.  Burrell could be compared to Alfonso Soriano, who received an even bigger contract.  Hideki Matsui’s average annual salary of $13MM seems like the floor for Burrell.  If he has a typical Burrell year, I expect him to want something in the range of four years and $60MM (similar to Travis Hafner’s current deal). 

The Tigers, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Mets, Reds, Padres, and Giants are teams that may have left field vacancies after the season.  The Rays could have room at DH.  If first base becomes an option, even more teams enter the mix.  The Phillies haven’t ruled out bringing him back and he’d love to re-sign.  Burrell will face competition from Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, and perhaps Manny Ramirez.

Odds and Ends: Schilling, Piazza, Howard

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Tax day roundup…

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