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NL Central Notes: Castro, Montero, Kazmir, Walker, Lucroy

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 5:47am CDT

With the Cubs contending and enjoying skyrocketing revenues, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders why these added resources haven’t translated to extra payroll for the baseball operations department.  It’s possible payroll won’t truly rise to the level of other big-market teams until the Cubs renegotiate their next TV contract, which is due to expire in four years.  With revenues booming, Wittenmyer reports that president of business operations Crane Kenney has signed a contract extension that will keep him with the organization through at least the 2020 season.  Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

  • Starlin Castro was told after the season that he wouldn’t be traded, Wittenmyer reports, as the Cubs believe him to be a major building block for their 2016 roster.  Castro’s name has swirled in trade rumors for the last two years, most recently in discussions with the Yankees for Brett Gardner just a few weeks ago.  If the Cubs indeed do plan to keep Castro (barring an unexpectedly great offer, of course), that would seem to make Jorge Soler the team’s top trade chip among position players.
  • Miguel Montero could also be a trade candidate, as Wittenmyer hears from a source that the team is now considering the possibility of moving the catcher to free payroll space.  Moving the $28MM remaining on Montero’s deal through 2017 could save enough money for the team to make a big-ticket splurge on the likes of a Jason Heyward.  The issue with dealing Montero is that it leaves the Cubs very thin at catcher, as the slugging Kyle Schwarber is still very much a work in progress behind the plate.
  • While the Pirates have been interested in Scott Kazmir in the past, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link) believes the rising costs of free agent pitching will put the lefty out of the Bucs’ price range.
  • In another tweet from Biertempfel, he hears that the Mets and Orioles “still have at least lukewarm interest” in Neil Walker.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore have discussed Walker “off and on” during the winter, while New York is a new player in connection with Walker’s services.  The Mets are likely to have a hole at second base with Daniel Murphy’s departure, though Walker’s MLBTR-projected $10.7MM salary in arbitration may be as much of an issue for the budget-conscious Mets as it is for the Pirates.
  • The Rangers have shown interest in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.  The Brewers are receiving “plenty of action” on Lucroy from several teams but it would take a huge offer to entice Milwaukee to part with the former All-Star.
  • From that same piece, Haudricourt opines that it would make sense for the Brewers to trade Jean Segura sooner rather than later.  Dealing Segura would open the door for prospect Oswaldo Arcia at the shortstop, and the Crew could use Jonathan Villar and Yadiel Rivera at short until Arcia was ready for the majors.  That said, Haudricourt feels Adam Lind is the far more likely Brewer to be dealt during the Winter Meetings.
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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Texas Rangers Jonathan Lucroy Miguel Montero Neil Walker Scott Kazmir Starlin Castro

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Bullpen Notes: Chapman, Gott, Albers, Blevins

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 3:29am CDT

It’s been a huge day for reliever signings, as Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Mark Lowe and (probably) Darren O’Day all reaching agreements on new contracts.  If that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers and Reds are also discussing an Aroldis Chapman trade, so the biggest bullpen trade chip of them all could also soon be off the table.  Here’s some news on the relievers who have left the market, some who remain, and yet others who could be on the trading block…

  • The Nationals continue to have interest in trading for Chapman but are wary about the prospect cost, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson writes.  There’s also the difficulty involved in trading current closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Papelbon’s grievance against the Nats is just the latest in several obstacles that will make it hard for Washington to find a taker for the controversial righty.
  • The Angels are getting interest in right-hander Trevor Gott, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link).  The Halos want a player of similar value in return.  Gott made his MLB debut in 2015 and posted a 3.02 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 1.69 K/BB rate over 47 2/3 innings.  Owner of a 96.2mph fastball, Gott posted much higher strikeout totals over his three minor league seasons and is controlled through the 2021 season.
  • Righty Matt Albers has received interest from multiple teams, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link).  Albers missed most of 2014 due to shoulder problems and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last winter, only to miss quite a bit of time after fracturing his pinkie during a bench-clearing brawl with the Royals in April.  Still, Albers ended up posting a very impressive 1.21 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 3.11 K/BB rate over 37 1/3 innings with Chicago last year.
  • Yakult Swallows right-hander Tony Barnette didn’t reach a deal with any of the five teams who met his $500K posting fee, according to a story from the Sanspo news outlet (hat tip to NPBTracker’s Patrick Newman for his translating tweets).  Barnette is set to return to Yakult, though there’s a chance the Japanese team could allow him to pursue a deal with a Major League team anyway.
  • The Mets will meet with lefty Jerry Blevins’ agent during the Winter Meetings, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports.  Assistant GM John Ricco confirmed the club’s interest in re-signing Blevins and expects it will take a Major League contract to get the veteran southpaw back in the fold.  Blevins pitched only five innings for the Mets in 2015 as a result of two forearm fractures — one from a line drive, and another suffered while slipping off a curb.
  • In another piece from Rubin, he hears from Ricco that the Mets weren’t in on O’Day or Madson due to their high price tags.  “We didn’t see ourselves playing in that top end where O’Day was,” Ricco said. “But I think that next tier, we’re going to be keeping an eye on….We’re going to meet with a lot of the representatives for the relievers here over the next couple of days.”
  • Part of the reason the Athletics agreed to a deal with Madson was because they can’t afford to land any of the top free agent hitters and thus have to “spend money where they can,” according to Rosenthal on Twitter.  The A’s are also still looking at more starting pitching as well, as evidenced by earlier reports of their interest in Scott Kazmir.
  • Before signing Lowe, the Tigers made one more try for Soria but talks went nowhere, MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets.  The Pirates, another of Soria’s former teams, didn’t have any interest in re-signing him since the club prefers to build low-cost bullpens, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets.  The Blue Jays looked into Soria in the name of “checking options,” a source tells Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, but Toronto wasn’t seriously interested.
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Athletics Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Aroldis Chapman Jerry Blevins Joakim Soria Matt Albers Ryan Madson Tony Barnette Trevor Gott

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Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2015 at 9:37pm CDT

Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.

Here’s more from the central divisions:

  • The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
  • While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ’Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
  • The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
  • The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
  • Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
  • Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Aroldis Chapman David Price Devin Mesoraco Jake McGee John Lackey Jordan Zimmermann Mark Melancon Mike Pelfrey Neil Walker Todd Frazier Zack Cozart

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Rangers Notes: Frazier, Moreland, Napoli

By Mark Polishuk | December 5, 2015 at 6:26pm CDT

Here’s the latest out of Arlington…

  • GM Jon Daniels cited a right-handed hitter who can play left field and first base as an “important” need for the team, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.  Such a player could both platoon with Mitch Moreland and fill in for Josh Hamilton in left, or possibly act as cover should Hamilton again miss significant time with injuries.  Ryan Rua or Patrick Kivlehan are internal options who lack experience in such a role, while the free agent market offers some possibilities at both positions (Steve Pearce, Sean Rodriguez) or one or the other.  The best-case scenario for Texas, of course, would be that Hamilton stays healthy, and with that still a possibility, the Rangers aren’t likely to invest in a major left field upgrade like Justin Upton.
  • Also from Wilson’s piece, he interestingly notes that the Rangers checked in with the Reds on Todd Frazier, though “nothing came out of [the] conversation.”  Frazier, who played some left in the minors, would’ve been used as that first base/left field bat rather than his usual third base spot, which is obviously spoken for by Adrian Beltre.  Presumably Frazier would’ve gotten more regular playing time than a regular platooner, and with Beltre a free agent after 2016, Frazier could’ve then been an option to replace him at the hot corner.
  • The Rangers like Mike Napoli but the first base/DH situation is already pretty filled by Moreland and Prince Fielder, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes.  “Mike probably fits us best if there is another move where we get presented with something on the trade front that opens some playing time up,” Daniels said.  Moreland is clearly much more likely to be dealt than Fielder, and Grant opines that the Pirates could be a good fit due to Moreland’s long relationship with Bucs manager Clint Hurdle and their need at first base with Pedro Alvarez gone.
  • In another piece from Grant, he talks to Daniels about how the Rangers will go about acquiring starters in what has become a particularly expensive market for pitching.  As Daniels notes, the Rangers “were kind of anticipating this kind of market” which is why they instead got a long-term ace in Cole Hamels last summer.  That deal cost them a hefty sum in prospects but it could end up costing Texas less than what other teams have paid to sign or acquire top-of-the-rotation arms this winter.  Daniels doesn’t anticipate making another major deal of minor leaguers to add another pitcher.  Grant suggests a few lower-cost options, like re-signing Colby Lewis or signing non-tendered free agents like Henderson Alvarez or Mike Minor who could be buy-low candidates.
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Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates Texas Rangers Cole Hamels Jon Daniels Mike Napoli Mitch Moreland Todd Frazier

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Pirates Non-Tender Pedro Alvarez

By Steve Adams | December 2, 2015 at 10:21pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have elected not to tender contracts to first baseman Pedro Alvarez and outfielder Jaff Decker for the 2016 season. The rest of the team’s arbitration eligible players, aside from Alvarez, have been tendered contracts. Alvarez had been projected to receive an $8.1MM salary next season, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Pedro Alvarez

Alvarez, the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, adds an intriguing name to the free-agent market for teams in search of power. He’s crushed 111 homers over the past four seasons (11th in all of Major League Baseball) while hitting .238/.310/.456. That, on the surface, would seem to make Alvarez a worthy tender, but Alvarez comes with a number of less appealing factors as well.

Alvarez broke into the league as a third baseman, but the Pirates moved the 6’3″, 250-pounder across the diamond to first base in 2014 due to defensive issues. While Alvarez readily accepted his new role, he proved to be a liability at first base as well. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating pegged Alvarez at -14 runs in 906 innings this season, and his 23 errors tied him for third in all of baseball at any position despite the fact that he had the fewest defensive innings played of any player in the top 30 of that dubious list.

Additionally, Alvarez has long struggled against left-handed pitching. He hit .258/.292/.419 against lefties in 2015, though he was limited to 65 plate appearances versus same-handed pitchers. Those limitations were placed on Alvarez with good reason; he’s a lifetime .203/.270/.332 batter against fellow lefties. On the flip side of the equation, Alvarez has proven to be a formidable force against right-handed pitchers. He’s a .246./320/.473 hitter against righties in his career with 114 of his 131 homers coming while holding the platoon advantage.

The Pirates certainly made an effort to trade Alvarez, tweets Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, but were simply unable to find a willing taker. Considering the fact that the still-28-year-old Alvarez (29 in February) averages a home run every 19 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching, he should draw considerable interest from American League clubs looking for a first baseman/designated hitter that can be platooned with a potent right-handed bat. Clubs like the Orioles and Indians stand out as possible fits, while the Rays and White Sox could make some sense depending on their ability to move James Loney and Adam LaRoche, respectively.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Newsstand Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Pedro Alvarez

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Pirates Interested In Justin Masterson

By Steve Adams | December 2, 2015 at 1:19am CDT

The Pirates are interested in free-agent right-hander Justin Masterson, reports Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter). The former Indians/Red Sox hurler is likely seeking a one-year deal to reestablish his value, Sawchik adds.

Masterson, 30, pitched just 59 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2015, marking his second consecutive season that was largely derailed due to injury. Masterson battled knee injuries for much of the 2014 campaign and struggled to a 5.88 ERA that year, and this past season, a shoulder injury hampered him. Masterson would eventually undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in September, though a recent update on his health status indicated that he’d be ready to go come Spring Training.

Prior to this recent rash of injuries. Masterson delivered brilliant performances in both 2011 and 2013. In both seasons, he logged an ERA south of 3.50 and was among the league leaders in terms of ground-ball rate. Of course, Masterson sandwiched a dreadful 4.93 ERA in between those two strong campaigns, but most believed that he’d have been in line for a very lucrative free-agent contract following the 2014 season had he been able to approximate his 2011/2013 results that season.

Though he hasn’t been healthy for two years, Masterson was looked at as a durable arm prior to that stretch, averaging 199 innings per year from 2010-13. And, while he’s only had two seasons in which he’s posted strong strikeout rates (8.7 K/9 from 2013-14), his nearly side-arm delivery and heavy sinker usage help him generate an exceptional amount of ground-balls when healthy (career 56.3 percent ground-ball rate).

The Pirates, who are among the most aggressive teams in the league in terms of infield shifting, tend to gravitate toward ground-ball pitchers and have developed a reputation for successfully rehabilitating pitchers with diminished value (e.g. Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez, Mark Melancon, Vance Worley). While Pittsburgh has a knack for finding fixable talent, some of that strategy is also borne out of necessity, as the Pirates lack the financial firepower to play at the top of the market — or, realistically, even in the middle tiers of the market — for free agents. All of those factors would seem to align to make Masterson a very reasonable target for the Pirates, although there are certainly other “reclamation projects” in which Pittsburgh could look to invest. Doug Fister and Mat Latos stand out as two names coming off poor seasons that could look to rebuild value on a one-year deal, and a more veteran option in the same boat would be right-hander Kyle Lohse.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Justin Masterson

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AL East Notes: Hanley, Madson, Happ, Rays

By Mark Polishuk | November 29, 2015 at 8:49pm CDT

Hanley Ramirez “is going to be our first baseman,” a high-ranking Red Sox source tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford.  The club is committed to using Ramirez at first in 2016 and the Sox have mapped out a rough 140-game schedule for Ramirez at the position.  The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported earlier today that the Red Sox were shopping Ramirez.  While this statement from Bradford’s source won’t end that speculation, it only makes sense that the club is preparing as if Ramirez will be on the roster rather than assuming a trade partner will be found.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski also said the Sox were intent on using Ramirez at first during his season-end media conference, for what it’s worth.

Here’s more from around the AL East…

  • The Red Sox will likely need to make a decision about whether to keep or trade Ramirez before the Winter Meetings if they want a shot at signing Chris Davis, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes.  Davis could well agree to a deal at the Meetings, leaving Boston looking for lower-tier first basemen as platoon options to share time with Travis Shaw and utilityman Brock Holt.  Signing Davis before trading Ramirez, of course, isn’t feasible since it would leave the Sox with zero negotiating position in trade talks.
  • The Blue Jays are looking at relievers with closing experience, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter link), and Ryan Madson is one of the names under consideration.  Madson had a tremendous year as the Phillies’ closer in 2011 but then missed the next three seasons with injuries before reviving his career in the Royals’ bullpen in 2015.  In looking for former closers, it stands to reason that the Jays are still considering stretching out current ninth-inning man Roberto Osuna as a starter.  The Tigers and Dodgers have also been rumored to be interested in Madson this offseason.
  • J.A. Happ discussed signing with the Blue Jays in an interview on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link), saying that multiple teams showed interest but “Toronto was really aggressive” in making a deal happen.  Happ was also swayed by his past stint in Toronto, his good relationships with John Gibbons and pitching coach Pete Walker, and the fact that the Jays look to be contenders again next year.  The southpaw said the Pirates, his former club, were one of the clubs with interest but talks “never quite got there” (hat tip to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).
  • The Rays seem to overhaul their bullpen every winter but their 2016 relief corps appears to be mostly set, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee, Steve Geltz and three out-of-options arms in Enny Romero, Xavier Cedeno and Alex Colome seem to be the top six, with Andrew Bellatti and newcomer Danny Farquhar also on hand and probably a couple of veterans on minor league deals to eventually be signed for additional depth.  Of course, Topkin notes that this stable bullpen plan could be greatly shuffled if the strong interest in Boxberger and McGee actually induces the Rays to part with one in a trade.
  • In other AL East notes from earlier today, the Blue Jays’ GM search is down to two known finalists, the Orioles have some interest in Denard Span and MLBTR’s Zach Links compiled another set of division notes.
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Boston Red Sox Pittsburgh Pirates Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Chris Davis Hanley Ramirez J.A. Happ Ryan Madson

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Non-Tender Candidate: Pedro Alvarez

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 2:03pm CDT

MLB’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players is coming up on Wednesday, and one of the more interesting cases is that of Pirates first baseman Pedro Alvarez, who seems at least somewhat unlikely to return to the Bucs next season. MLBTR projects that Alvarez would make $8.1MM through the arbitration process in 2016 (after which he would become eligible for free agency). That’s a figure that the Pirates could be reluctant to pay, and there are any number of signals that both Alvarez and the Bucs appear ready to move on from one another.

USATSI_8768590_154513410_lowresAlready this offseason, reporters have indicated that the Pirates are listening to trade offers for Alvarez. Last week, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported that Alvarez himself would prefer to be dealt. And the Bucs’ signing of fellow left-handed first baseman Jake Goebbert to a big-league deal last week suggests that the organization is planning for the possibility that Alvarez won’t be back. Goebbert doesn’t look like a long-term answer at first base, and he has options remaining, so the Bucs could simply mostly want him for minor-league depth. But they could also platoon him with righty Michael Morse at first until the Super Two threshold passes, at which point they could promote top prospect Josh Bell.

It seems at least somewhat likely, then, that Alvarez will head to a new team this winter. The question is how he’ll do it. The Pirates could still try to trade him before next week’s deadline, but it’s questionable whether they’ll be able to find a suitor, given that other teams know the deadline will force the Bucs’ hand. They could tender Alvarez and plan to trade him later, but that would be somewhat of a risk, particularly given that they don’t generally have huge payrolls and they have many key players whose salaries are increasing (including Neil Walker and Mark Melancon through arbitration and Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison and Starling Marte through their long-term deals). Or they could non-tender him.

Even leaving aside the looming deadline, assessing Alvarez’s trade value is difficult. What does appear fairly clear is that he should have little value to any team in the National League. Via FanGraphs, Alvarez ranked as the third-worst defensive player in the Majors last year, ahead of only Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. The Bucs moved Alvarez to first in 2015 after he suffered inexplicable throwing issues at third base in 2014, but the move across the diamond did him few favors, as he struggled badly with the fundamentals at his new position and made 23 errors. Essentially, unless he dramatically improve at one of the two defensive positions with the help of a new team’s coaching staff, he’s close to unplayable at either position.

That would make Alvarez a better fit for the American League, where he can DH. His 27 home runs in 2015 have to appear tempting to opposing clubs, particularly ones with ballparks more favorable to home-run power than PNC Park. Unfortunately, Alvarez has offensive shortcomings as well — he’s struck out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances in every year he’s been in the league, and he therefore struggles to post good batting averages.

Still, absent context, Alvarez’s .243/.318/.469 line in 2015 (or the .243/.320/.454 Steamer projects for him next season) would make him a decent DH, particularly given that he might hit somewhat better in certain ballparks. AL designated hitters batted .264/.334/.454 in 2015, and Alvarez would appear to fit in fairly well. As I pointed out in September at Bucs Dugout, however, using Alvarez as a full-time DH would limit the flexibility many teams like to have with that lineup spot. Many full-time DHs, like David Ortiz, Alex Rodriguez and Kendrys Morales, are significantly better hitters than Alvarez, and many teams without that kind of strong DH option divide plate appearances at that position among several players, many of whom also play in the field. Also, some of the teams who fared worst at DH in 2015, like the Tigers and Athletics, did so because of the performances of veterans who are signed to long-term deals and who seem likely to return to their positions next season.

This isn’t to say that there won’t, or shouldn’t, be interest in Alvarez. The Orioles, who struggled at DH last year and who play in a ballpark friendly to left-handed home run hitters, stand out as one potential fit. But trading Alvarez might be somewhat tricky for the Pirates, particularly given that, if they tender him a contract, he won’t be particularly cheap. To be worth his likely $8.1MM salary, he’ll have to produce something like one win above replacement. In the past two seasons combined, he’s been worth less than one win, via both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. So trading for Alvarez and taking on his salary would require a leap of faith — that his incredible power can somehow overwhelm his shortcomings, or (if his new team uses him in the field with any regularity) that his defense can improve.

It will be interesting, then, to see if the Pirates can pull off a trade involving Alvarez, and if not, what they do with him. Non-tendering him and spending elsewhere would be defensible, particularly with Bell waiting in the wings. Non-tendering Alvarez would also free the Bucs to spend on some other left-handed first base option for next season. The Pirates could also tender Alvarez, use him in a platoon with Morse, hope he recoups some value with a couple decent months in the field, and then either trade him or keep him, depending on the team’s position in the standings and how Bell is doing at Triple-A Indianapolis. We’re only days from the deadline to tender contracts, and it’s not at all clear which direction the Pirates will go.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals Non-Tender Candidates Pittsburgh Pirates Pedro Alvarez

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NL Notes: Braves, Zimmermann, Moroff

By charliewilmoth | November 28, 2015 at 12:11pm CDT

Former GM Jim Duquette’s list for MLB.com of five trades that should happen includes two deals involving the Braves. Duquette suggests the Braves deal Freeman to the Cardinals for Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and starting pitcher Tim Cooney — an interesting suggestion, given the Cards’ need for a power bat, although, Wong’s departure would create a new hole at second base. (The Braves, of course, emphatically deny that they will trade Freeman, as Duquette notes.) Duquette also suggests the Braves deal Shelby Miller to the Cubs for prospects Billy McKinney and Willson Contreras. Miller would provide the Cubs with a mid-rotation pitcher who might be an alternative to a free-agent option like Jeff Samardzija, and McKinney and Contreras would give the Braves a couple good position-player prospects to complement their collection of young pitchers. Of course, these are both just ideas, and not actual trade rumors, but they’re fun. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Former Nationals starting pitcher and free agent Jordan Zimmermann isn’t quite on a tier with David Price and Zack Greinke, but there’s plenty to recommend him, beginning with his consistency, as MLB.com’s Paul Casella writes. Zimmermann, Casella points out, is the only MLB starter who’s made at least 32 starts and posted ERAs below 3.70 in all of the past four seasons. He’s also one of the best starters in baseball at limiting walks.
  • Second baseman Max Moroff was little more than a sleeper prospect before the season, but after an outstanding 2015, he’s earned a place on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, Adam Berry of MLB.com writes. The Bucs gave Moroff a $300K bonus as a late-round pick in 2012 and moved him aggressively through the system, but it wasn’t until this year at Double-A Altoona that his patient approach at the plate started to pay dividends. Moroff hit .293 and walked 70 times en route to a .374 OBP. That earned him the Pirates’ Minor League Player of the Year award, and forced the Bucs to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. “We felt that he was one of those guys that, if selected [in the Rule 5], could do enough things to help a Major League team win that he might end up staying with another organization,” says GM Neal Huntington.
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Pittsburgh Pirates Jordan Zimmermann

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NL Notes: Reyes, Pirates, D’Backs, Davis

By Jeff Todd | November 26, 2015 at 2:31pm CDT

Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes has been charged with abuse of a family or household member, the Associated Press reports (via SI.com). The 32-year-old has entered a plea of not guilty to the charges, which stem from his recent arrest in Hawaii for alleged violent acts against his wife during an argument. As explained in the linked post, the commissioner’s office will be watched closely as it applies the newly agreed-upon domestic abuse protocol for the first time to a highly-paid, high-profile player.

As we wait for further information in that disappointing and concerning situation, let’s take a look at some other links relating to National League clubs:

  • The Pirates are “definitely listening” on all players entering their final year of contract control, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports on Twitter. Closer Mark Melancon, second baseman Neil Walker, and first baseman Pedro Alvarez are all prime candidates to be dealt, says Stark. It certainly will be fascinating to see how the team proceeds with those notable players, including what they seek (and potentially obtain) in return as well as what other moves the ultimate decisions set up.
  • The Diamondbacks are said to be looking into a variety of options to add starting pitching, including cashing in some young position player talent via trade. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the considerations facing GM Dave Stewart and co. Piecoro gathers the thoughts of numerous talent evaluators in the interesting piece, focusing his analysis on the timing of the team’s assets. Arizona is still testing several possibilities, he reports, but it sounds rather likely that some kind of hitting-for-pitching deal will come together at some point this winter.
  • Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com takes a look at the Cardinals’ decision-making process regarding free agent first baseman/outfielder Chris Davis. There’s a fit on paper, writes the veteran journalist, but he says it would rate as a surprise if St. Louis emerges as a serious bidder — especially if the ask goes past five years (as it almost assuredly does).
  • If those links don’t have enough interesting reading to get you through turkey day, check out these two recent pieces on Fangraphs: Brewers GM David Stearns spoke with David Laurila about a variety of interesting and relevant topics. And Jeff Sullivan assesses the trade value of all-world Reds closer Aroldis Chapman.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Aroldis Chapman Chris Davis Jose Reyes Mark Melancon Neil Walker Pedro Alvarez

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