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Carlos Rodon

Pitching Notes: Cardinals, Eovaldi, Rodón

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Currently boasting a staff of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Steven Matz, and Dakota Hudson, the Cardinals were not predicted to be heavily involved in the free-agent starting pitcher market this offseason. Nevertheless, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is aware that, “a year from now, we know we’re going to need starting pitching,” per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Mozeliak added that the team has recognized that they will have to replace or re-sign four starters after the 2023 season.

Wainwright, who re-signed with St. Louis on a one-year, $17.5MM deal with incentives, has already stated that the 2023 season will be his last. Additionally, Mikolas, Flaherty, and Montgomery will all be free agents at the conclusion of the 2023 season. Matz and Hudson are the only starters with a contract for the 2024 season, with Matz signed through the 2025 season and Hudson a free agent after 2024. Goold reports that the Cardinals “plan to explore contract extensions with at least two of the starters who are unsigned beyond 2023,” with Mikolas being the most likely candidate.

The Cardinals are currently projected to enter the 2023 season with a payroll of $171.9MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, after the season, they are forecasted by Roster Resource to have only $94MM in commitments — giving them ample room to add to their team. Despite this financial freedom, Mozeliak notes that the Cardinals “have some young starters coming,” perhaps signaling a desire to avoid free agent starters in order to fit within the team’s budget.

Lefty Matthew Liberatore (the Cardinals’ No.4 Prospect) struggled in his Major League debut during the 2022 season, pitching to a 5.97 ERA in 34 2/3 innings with a 17.4 SO% and 11.2 BB%. He didn’t fare much better in his second season at Triple-A Memphis, pitching to a 5.17 ERA in 115 innings with a 23.5 SO% and 8.3 BB%. Nevertheless, Liberatore is only 23 years old and still has plenty of time to settle in at the Major League level. Additionally, Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals’ No.3 Prospect), Tink Hence (No.6), and Michael McGreevy (No.9) all are expected to make their debuts during the 2024 season, with Graceffo and McGreevy earning promotions to Double-A Springfield during the 2022 season, while Hence spent the entire season with Single-A Palm Beach.

More pitching-related items from around baseball….

  • According to WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox do not view former All-Star Nathan Eovaldi as a top priority in their starting rotation search. Bradford adds that other teams are showing more interest in Eovaldi than the level currently displayed by Boston. The Mets were previously rumored to be in on Eovaldi, but their recent five-year, $75MM deal with Kodai Senga likely takes them out of the running for the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Eovaldi joined Boston during the 2018 season, with the righty helping them win the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox rewarded the starter with a four-year, $68MM contract that resulted in 407 2/3 innings of 4.15 ERA baseball, with a solid 24.4 SO% and strong 5.6 BB%. Despite being limited to 20 starts in 2022 due to low back inflammation and right shoulder inflammation, Eovaldi pitched to a 3.87 ERA in 109 1/3 innings with a 22.4 SO% and 4.4 BB%.
  • In other St. Louis news, the Cardinals have reportedly entered the Carlos Rodon sweepstakes, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. With Rodon seeking a seven-year deal and St. Louis having only two starters signed for the 2023 season, the Cards might look to join the bidding war for the two-time All-Star’s services. Rodon, 30, signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants during the 2021 offseason, with an opt-out after the first year. Brushing aside injury concerns and making a career-high 31 starts, the southpaw pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 178 innings, with an absurd 33.4 SO% and strong 7.3 BB% before opting out of the contract at the end of the season. For his part, Mozeliak has remained coy, stating that while the team does “have some resources available,” but that he wouldn’t “believe many of the rumors you’re reading right now,” per Derrick Goold.

Carlos Rodón Seeking Seven-Year Deal

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The Yankees are one of many teams known to be interested in lefty Carlos Rodón, but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that they would prefer to limit him to a four- or five-year deal. That might be a problem, since Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Rodón is looking for at least seven years. Reporter Marino Pepén says the Red Sox are interested, though the extent of interest isn’t clear.

Just a few days ago, it had been reported that Rodón was seeking a six-year deal, but there may be good reasons why he’s upped his ask. The free-agent market has been broadly aggressive, with many of the top free agents going well beyond expectations in terms of contract length.

In recent offseasons, teams have generally cut off guarantees to position players in their age-37 seasons, but Aaron Judge got a nine-year deal taking him through age-39. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts each landed 11-year deals that run into their 40s. Brandon Nimmo will be paid through age 38 with the Mets. Pitchers, meanwhile, have struggled to land guarantees beyond their age-36 season (with older veterans like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander standing as exceptions for obvious reasons), but Jacob deGrom signed through age 39 in Texas. The length of all those deals is generally rooted in lowering the luxury-tax hit, though, and Rodon’s ostensibly new goal of seven-plus years could be a matter of falling in line with that broader market trend.

DeGrom and Rodón are somewhat analogous, though not the exact same. Both are extremely talented pitchers with some injury concerns in recent years. DeGrom is arguably the best pitcher alive when healthy but missed over an entire year from mid-2021 to mid-2022 due to forearm and scapula injuries.

Rodón is much younger, as he will turn 30 years old tomorrow. Injuries limited him to just over 40 combined innings in 2019 and 2020 and the concern was high enough that the White Sox actually non-tendered him after that. There were enough red flags that he had to settle for a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Sox. He’s been on a straight upward trajectory since.

Rodón tossed 132 2/3 innings in 2021 with a 2.37 ERA and excellent 34.6% strikeout rate. He seemed to run out of gas down the stretch, leaving some lingering health concerns as he returned to free agency. He didn’t get a qualifying offer and had to “settle” for a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants, though one that gave him a chance to opt-out after the first campaign. He pushed further away from the injury worries by making 31 starts and logging 178 frames with a 2.88 ERA and 33.4% strikeout rate. He made the easy decision to opt out and also reject a qualifying offer from the Giants.

The fact that Rodón is now reasonably seeking a seven-year deal is nothing short of remarkable, given where he was just two years ago. It’s also not surprising that he’s looking to strike while the iron is hot, given the ups and downs he’s had in his career. Still, contracts of this length for free agent pitchers are quite rare. Gerrit Cole got nine years but with a much stronger record of health than Rodón. Prior to that deal, he had made at least 19 starts for seven straight seasons and at least 32 in the previous three. Kenta Maeda got eight years when coming over from Japan, but that was a unique situation. Maeda was going into his age-28 season but had some health concerns, leading the Dodgers to give him a modest $25MM guarantee spread out over eight years but with $10MM in incentives available each year that Maeda could trigger by staying healthy.

There are a handful of aces that have gotten to seven years, including Max Scherzer, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka, the latter of whom was only 25 at the time and is hardly a similar situation. Strasburg had dealt with some injuries but was coming off a World Series MVP performance that pushed his bidding up. The others in that group, similar to Cole, had fairly solid records of health and durability. As great as Rodón has been for the past two seasons, any seven-year deal would generally be rarefied air for a pitcher.

Now, with this offseason’s trend of utilizing longer contracts to tamp down AAV (and, thusly, luxury-tax penalties), it seems more plausible than before that Rodón might indeed command seven-plus years. Initial reports indicated that he was seeking six years with a $30MM+ annual salary. If Rodón and agent Scott Boras are fixated more on the contract’s total than on its length, then spreading that, say, $175-200MM goal out over a period of seven, eight or even nine years would greatly reduce the potential luxury penalties for whichever team signs him. That’s more a concern if he signs with a major-market club that regularly finds itself in luxury peril (e.g. Yankees, Red Sox) than if he were to sign with one of his reported suitors that has never held much of an appetite for the luxury tax (e.g. Twins, Orioles).

The Yankees are clearly willing to spend, as they just gave Judge a record-breaking $360MM guarantee. How much they want to continue spending, however, is an open question. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s payroll for next season at $250MM with a competitive balance tax figure of $266MM. That already places them beyond last year’s Opening Day payroll of $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and beyond the second tier of luxury tax penalization. The tiers begin at $233MM next year and go up in $20MM increments to $293MM. Adding $25-30MM for Rodón would push them near or above that top penalty threshold.

The club doesn’t strictly need an elite starter like Rodón, but he would certainly be an upgrade for any rotation in the game. The Yanks currently have Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas for four spots with solid options for the last spot including Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a solid group, but Montas and Severino both have some recent injuries that make them question marks going into next season, so there would be plenty of sense in adding another arm and pushing some guys down the depth chart. The question will be whether the Yanks would prefer paying the price for an ace like Rodón as opposed to turning to mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt or Sean Manaea.

If Rodón indeed is open to seven or more years in order to obtain the contract total he’s eyeing, that would be an interesting situation for the Yankees to ponder. They already have expensive contracts for Cole and Judge on the books for the next six and nine years, respectively. Giancarlo Stanton has five years left with a $25MM club option for 2028 with a $10MM buyout. Adding a lengthy deal for Rodón would likely mean their 2028 payroll would already be well beyond $100MM.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, have plenty of space before thinking about the tax. Roster Resource currently has their payroll at $172MM and their CBT figure at $192MM. That leaves them about $40MM away from the lowest threshold, meaning they could add Rodón with room to spare. There would be plenty of sense in adding to their rotation given all the question marks they have there. Nick Pivetta is probably the only solid member of their group right now, as Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years. Brayan Bello and Garrett Whitlock are penciled into two spots, though they are young and only have 20 MLB starts between them. They also have other areas worth addressing on the roster, such as catcher and figuring out how to deal with the departure of Bogaerts from their infield. Long-term, they have Story and Masataka Yoshida locked in for the next five seasons but nothing guaranteed for 2028.

Blue Jays Notes: Senga, Bassitt, Taillon, Reyes, Brantley, Gallo

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The Blue Jays are exploring several roster upgrades, with Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reporting that the club has interest in such players as Kodai Senga, Jameson Taillon, Alex Reyes, and Michael Brantley.  “There doesn’t appear to be traction…at the moment” between the Jays and Chris Bassitt, though the right-hander is another free agent hurler at least under consideration for the team.

Starting pitching is Toronto’s clearest need, and as one agent told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are “all over the pitching market” right now.  To this end, it is fair to speculate that the Jays have at least checked in on basically every available arm, which has been the team’s strategy for the previous three offseasons.  Davidi adds that the Jays also “have some degree of interest” in Carlos Rodon, Nathan Eovaldi, and their own incumbent free agent in Ross Stripling.  Past reports have indicated that the Jays have extended an offer to Andrew Heaney, and they were interested in Kyle Gibson (before Gibson rejected Toronto’s one-year, $10MM offer to sign an identical deal with the Orioles), and even Justin Verlander, before Verlander joined the Mets.

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have solidified the front end of the Blue Jays’ rotation, but there is a lot of uncertainty afterwards, given how Jose Berrios and especially Yusei Kikuchi struggled in 2022.  There isn’t necessarily a guarantee that Kikuchi will even get a clear shot at a starting role, since he could at best be competing with Mitch White for the fifth starter’s job, or perhaps even be relegated to the bullpen if the Jays end up acquiring two new starters this winter.

As noted by both Nicholson-Smith and Davidi, the fact that the Jays were considering getting into Verlander’s market (even on a short-term deal) is another sign of how aggressive the team is willing to be, and perhaps a sign of how far they’ll stretch the payroll.  Bigger spending may be somewhat inevitable given the rising costs involved in the pitching market this offseason, though it might be a reach to see the Blue Jays spend what it will take to sign Rodon or perhaps even Senga, considering how the Japanese ace is drawing a lot of attention from multiple teams.  Speculatively, the Jays’ relative lack of interest in Bassitt could have to do with Bassitt’s desire for at least four guaranteed years, which may be a tall order for a pitcher heading into his age-34 season.

Reyes represents another kind of pitching addition, as the former top prospect is an intriguing bounce-back candidate who would fit on a lot of teams.  That said, Reyes also carries plenty of risk given his long injury history, including a shoulder surgery that kept him from pitching whatsoever in 2022.  It will be interesting to see how Reyes’ market materializes, as the Blue Jays and other teams will naturally be weighing the injury concerns, but the sheer amount of interest could still lead to a decent payday for the right-hander.

Beyond the pitching market, the Jays are also looking for left-handed hitting outfielders.  A gap in the outfield emerged after Toronto dealt Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners, and a lefty swinger could help add balance to a largely right-handed Blue Jays lineup.  Brantley is one possibility, and while he is a player the Jays reportedly came very close to signing in the 2020-21 offseason, health questions also surround Brantley’s market.  Shoulder problems that eventually required surgery limited Brantley to only 64 games last season, and he has missed a lot of time earlier in his career with other injury woes.

Such names as Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger have also been linked to the Jays’ outfield search this winter, and agent Scott Boras told Nicholson-Smith and Hazel Mae (Twitter link) that Toronto indeed had interest in both of his clients.  Boras also said the Blue Jays had interest in another client in Joey Gallo, another left-handed hitter.

Gallo is coming off a thoroughly rough 2022 season, hitting only .160/.280/.357 with 19 homers over 410 plate appearances with the Yankees and Dodgers.  Gallo’s “three true outcomes” style will always limit his offensive productivity to some extent, yet he is only entering his age-29 season, and Gallo’s strikeouts haven’t stopped him from posting some big offensive numbers in the past.  As recently as 2021, Gallo posted a 4.2 fWAR season, and his ability to play a decent center field would also be of interest to a Jays team that would ideally like to give George Springer more time in a corner outfield spot.

With Gallo, Bellinger, and probably Brantley all in line to receive one-year bounce-back types of contracts, the Jays could be planning to address the outfield with just a shorter-term addition, and then focus on a longer-term addition for the rotation.  The Blue Jays appear to be open to all possibilities, however, and their pursuit of free agents is also obviously impacted by what they might do on the trade market, especially with their catching depth being in high demand.

Rangers Have Met With Carlos Rodon Since Signing Jacob deGrom

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One year after shocking baseball by signing both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for a combined half-billion dollar, the Rangers appear to at least be considering a similar double dip into the deep end of the free-agent pool. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Rangers met with Carlos Rodon just one day after signing Jacob deGrom to a hefty five-year, $185MM contract.

With deGrom in Texas and Justin Verlander having agreed to terms with the Mets, Rodon is the lone free-agent ace left on the board. He’s reportedly been seeking a six-year deal worth more than $30MM annually — a weighty sum for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history that includes both shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery.

That said, Rodon has left little doubt in recent years that he’s among the sport’s most talented pitchers. After signing a $3MM pillow contract with the White Sox in the 2020-21 offseason, he at last made good on the expectations associated with his name dating back to his No. 3 overall selection in the draft. Through the first four months of the 2021 season, Rodon was arguably the best pitcher in baseball and looked like the clear front-runner for the American League Cy Young Award.

Shoulder fatigue limited Rodon to just 28 innings in the season’s final two months, however, and when he did pitch down the stretch in 2021, it was often with reduced velocity. The White Sox were apparently wary enough that they declined to put forth a qualifying offer, and Rodon inked a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt back into the open market if he reached 110 innings on the season.

Not only did Rodon reach 110 innings, but he did so while again putting himself onto the periphery of the Cy Young race. The lefty tossed a career-high 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, held his velocity late into the season and averaged better than 5 2/3 innings per start as a member of the Giants. He led the National League in strikeouts and, since Opening Day 2021, leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. Rodon has done all that while pitching to a combined ERA of 2.67 with similarly excellent marks in FIP (2.42) and SIERA (2.88).

Onlookers may wonder just how the Rangers could even consider continuing to spend so aggressively in such a short period of time — particularly when so many teams have been averse to paying the luxury tax in recent seasons. The increased luxury tax thresholds in the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement surely play a role, as the first-tier threshold has climbed from $210MM in 2021 to $233MM this coming season.

The luxury tax, however, isn’t a major issue for the Rangers — at least not yet. Roster Resource projects that they currently have about $192.4MM of luxury obligations, meaning even signing Rodon at a $30MM AAV would still leave them with more than $10MM of breathing room from the first tier of penalization. It’s also worth noting that the penalty for first-time offenders is rather tepid — relatively speaking. The Rangers would owe a 20% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the $233MM threshold and a 30% tax on the next $20MM. Even shattering the luxury barrier by a means of $40MM would give the Rangers $10MM in penalties — about the price of signing a back-of-the-rotation starter in the current market.

Of course, signing Rodon would squarely set the Rangers up for a potential long-term status as a luxury payor. The combination of deGrom, Seager, Semien and Jon Gray amounts to $107.5MM on its own, and tacking on $30MM+ for Rodon would get Texas nearly 60% of the way to luxury territory even as far out as the 2024 campaign — and that’s not even including arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players to round out the roster.

Texas, however, is enjoying the fruits of a newly constructed stadium that drew more than two million fans in 2022 and can surely anticipate that number will climb in 2023, with deGrom (at the very least) now on board. Ownership from all 30 clubs is also perhaps a bit more willing to spend after the league sold off its remaining 15% stake in BAMTech to Disney for $900MM, the spoils of which were divided among teams. Meanwhile, lucrative streaming deals with Apple and NBC/Peacock have only further bolstered revenues for the league’s 30 teams. Heading into the 2022 season, national television and streaming rights afforded all 30 teams approximately $65MM in revenue before factoring in local television deals, attendance, concessions and other sources of revenue.

Carlos Rodon Seeking Six-Year Deal

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With Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander off the market — to the Rangers and to the Mets, respectively — Carlos Rodon is the clear top starting pitcher left on the free-agent market. As one would expect for a 29-year-old lefty (30 next week) who opted out of the second season of his contract on the heels leading the National League in strikeouts, the asking price appears quite high. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that agent Scott Boras and Rodon have been seeking a six-year deal at an annual rate of $30MM or more. (Notably, that report pre-dates Verlander’s new agreement with the Mets.) Heyman suggests that the Yankees are the large-market team that is most focused on Rodon at present.

As always, it’s worth taking early asking prices with a grain of salt to some degree. That’s not to say Rodon can’t reach six years and/or a $30MM+ annual value, but it behooves any free agent to at least initially set a lofty asking price. A six-year deal for Rodon would put the lefty in rarefied air, as the list of free-agent pitchers to secure such a commitment is quite short.

No free-agent pitcher has pulled in six-plus years on the open market since the 2019 Winter Meetings, when Gerrit Cole (nine years, $324MM) and Stephen Strasburg (seven years, $245MM) managed to do so. Prior to that pairing, the only free-agent deals of six or more years in length over the past decade have gone to Yu Darvish, Johnny Cueto, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, David Price, Zack Greinke (twice!) and Patrick Corbin. Starting pitchers earning more than $30MM annually are similarly rare; Cole, Strasburg, Scherzer, Price, Greinke, Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and deGrom are the only pitchers to ever reach that level.

For Rodon to join either group of arms, he’ll need to convince the market that the injury troubles that dogged him for much of his early career are in the past. Rodon has undergone shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery in his career, and due to those injuries pitched just 232 1/3 innings at the Major League level over a four-year period (2017-20).

However, the former No. 3 overall pick returned to the White Sox on a one-year, $3MM deal in 2021 after being non-tendered, and broke out with one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the sport. Through mid-July in 2021, Rodon was the clear front-runner for American League Cy Young honors and quite arguably the most dominant pitcher in either league. Shoulder fatigue down the stretch dropped his velocity and relegated him to just six starts over the final two months, and durability concerns “limited” him to a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants — one that allowed him to opt out of the contract after one season if he pitched at least 110 innings.

Rodon not only reached 110 innings — he dominated to the tune of a 2.88 ERA through a career-high 178 frames. He held his velocity late in the season, averaged better than 5 2/3 frames per start and took significant strides toward alleviating some durability concerns. He paced the National League in strikeouts this past season and has now turned in consecutive campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dating back to Opening Day 2021, he leads all Major League pitchers (min. 200 innings) with a 33.9% strikeout rate. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, which may slightly impact his earning power, but that consideration shouldn’t be a major encumbrance for an in-his-prime, ace-caliber pitcher.

That’s especially true now, because with deGrom and Verlander off the market and little to no frontline starting pitchers clearly available in the trade market, demand for Rodon should be extra-steep. He can justifiably hold out for max years and/or dollars and go to the highest bidder, knowing that teams in need of an ace have no readily available alternative. Unlike Verlander, who surely prioritized signing with a win-now team due to his age, Rodon can consider a broader field of suitors. To this point in the offseason Rodon has drawn interest from as many as nine teams, with the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Rangers, Twins and Orioles among the team’s reported to be involved in his market to at least some extent.

Orioles Among 8-9 Teams Interested In Carlos Rodon

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Roughly eight or nine teams are known to have interest in Carlos Rodon, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links).  Many of the suitors are already known, as past reports have indicated the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Twins, Dodgers, and Rangers have all checked in on Rodon’s market at different points this offseason.  However, Heyman also lists the Orioles as a new name in the mix for the left-hander’s services.

Baltimore has already made one notable rotation move in signing Kyle Gibson to a one-year deal earlier today.  Needless to say, signing Rodon would take a much heftier financial commitment, and the first major acquisition of the Orioles’ post-rebuild era.  Though past reports suggested that the O’s were wary of shopping at the very top of the pitching market, Rodon might represent something of a bridge between the “top tier” and “secondary tier,” depending on how one would define such players.

Entering his age-30 season, Rodon is considerably younger than either Justin Verlander or Jacob deGrom, so Rodon might make more sense for a young Baltimore team that appears to be just entering its competitive window.  As Orioles GM Mike Elias noted last month, the club has “got a lot of interesting starters.  But they’re not guys who have a track record of being front-end-of-the-rotation starters.” 

Baltimore hopes at least one or two of their young arms can eventually develop into being ace-level pitchers, but waiting on that development might not be too helpful for a team that wants to win in 2023.  Gibson has had some quality seasons and was an All-Star just in 2021, but he struggled in his time with the Phillies, and he is more of a veteran innings-eater than a true frontline pitcher.

In other Rodon news, Heyman writes that Texas is still in on the southpaw even after already signing deGrom to a five-year, $185MM deal yesterday.  As expected, the Rangers have put a heavy emphasis on rotation upgrades this winter, between signing deGrom, re-signing Martin Perez, and acquiring Jake Odorizzi from the Braves.  That trio joins Jon Gray and Dane Dunning in the projected starting five, but the Rangers have been so aggressive over the last two offseasons that it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see them also sign Rodon.  In this case, one of Dunning or Odorizzi could become a depth starter or swingman, or potentially even a trade chip.

Both the Mets and Yankees have been linked to Rodon and Verlander, with Heyman tweeting that the two New York teams seem to have differing top choices.  Rodon seems to be the Yankees’ chief target, while Verlander seems like the Mets’ preferred option.

Latest On Mets’ Search For Starting Pitching

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3:10PM: While the Mets are looking at several free agent pitchers, the New York Post’s Mike Puma tweets that the club is also actively pursuing trade possibilities.

11:30AM: After the Mets saw Jacob deGrom leave for Texas and sign a five-year, $185MM deal with the Rangers, it seems certain they’ll move quickly to find other ways to upgrade their rotation. As Andy Martino of SNY reports, the next best pitcher available, Justin Verlander is now “front and center” for the team, and the team is “determined to land” either Verlander or Carlos Rodon.

The loss of deGrom is surely a tough pill to swallow for the Mets, but after seeing the contract he received from Texas, the opportunity to bring in Verlander on a shorter deal may well appeal to owner Steve Cohen and co. While Verlander is older, and will play the 2023 season at 40, he is coming off a dominant Cy Young-winning season which saw him hurl 175 innings of 1.75 ERA ball, striking out 220 batters in the process.

A potential signing of Verlander would likely come at a higher annual salary than the $37MM deGrom received, but only over a two or three year deal, and it does seem like that is their preferred option for older pitchers. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported, their offer to deGrom was around three-years, $120MM. Pivoting to Verlander on a shorter term deal would give them a bit more payroll flexibility over the long term while maintaining the 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation with Max Scherzer that the Mets covet.

While the Mets have shown their financial muscle in recent years, there are other teams interested in Verlander (such as the Yankees and Dodgers) so it’s no guarantee that they land him. In that case, it seems their next option would be Rodon. The left-hander is coming off a strong platform year in San Francisco, where he tossed 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with 237 strikeouts.

Rodon is a lot younger than Verlander (he turns 30 in a week) so would likely be looking at a longer term contract. MLBTR predicted he’d land a five-year, $140MM contract, which would give him an AAV of $28MM. While it seems Rodon is their second choice to Verlander, they are very much in on him and met with him on Zoom earlier this week.

While a frontline starter to pair with Scherzer looks to be the top priority for the Mets, Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that they’re looking to also add a starter from the mid-tier of options as well. Martino cites Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker, Kyle Gibson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana as the main options for the team in that category. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that they’ve been talking with Jameson Taillon as well.

Zach Eflin’s three-year, $40MM deal with the Rays came in one year and $18MM higher than MLBTR’s prediction, and does suggest that the market for mid-tier starting pitching could be quite lucrative this year.

The Mets currently have Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Elieser Hernandez penciled into the rotation. The addition of either Rodon or Verlander plus a solid, mid-tier option would give them a formidable rotation, and allow them to shift two of Megill, Peterson and Hernandez into depth/long-relief roles.

Mets To Meet With Carlos Rodón

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The Mets have a rotation to rebuild and are interested in lefty Carlos Rodón. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported yesterday that the club had been in contact with the free agent, while Andy Martino of SNY reports today that the two sides will be meeting this week. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports that the two sides will have a Zoom meeting today.

Rodón, 30 next month, is coming off an excellent two-year run and is one of the top free agent pitchers this offseason, alongside Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. After missing most of 2019 and 2020 due to injuries, Rodón bounced back in 2021 by posting an ERA of 2.37, along with a 34.6% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.7% ground ball rate. He did spend some time on the injured list and only logged 132 2/3 innings on the year, which was concerning enough for the White Sox to decide against issuing him a qualifying offer.

He signed on with the Giants for 2022 and pushed the injury question marks even farther behind him, getting up to 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. His two-year deal with the Giants allowed him to opt out after the first year if he tallied 110 innings, which he did with ease. He made the easy decision to opt out and then decline the qualifying offer that the Giants extended. Even with that QO attached, MLBTR predicted Rodón for a contract of $140MM over five years, an average annual value of $28MM.

The interest from the Mets is quite understandable, given the uncertainty in their rotation. deGrom, Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt all reached free agency recently, leaving the club with Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco as their two remaining incumbents. They have some internal candidates to fill the backend of their rotation, such as Tylor Megill and David Peterson, but they are naturally looking to improve that overall picture before Opening Day rolls around. They appear to be casting a wide net in their efforts, as they have already been connected to Verlander, Andrew Heaney, Kodai Senga and Jameson Taillon, in addition to trying to keep deGrom in Queens.

The Mets’ payroll for 2023 is current around $235MM, per the calculations of Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax number of $247MM. It’s unclear exactly how high the club plans to push their payroll but a ballpark figure of $300MM has been floated, per Heyman. That gives the club plenty of room for now, but some of their pursuits are potentially looking for deals around $30MM or even $40MM. Given that the club is also looking into outfielders, such as bringing back Brandon Nimmo, and even their high-spending ways will start to reach their limits eventually.

The Mets certainly won’t be alone in their pursuit of Rodón either, as he’s already been connected to the Rangers, Dodgers, Twins and Yankees, with the Giants interested in bringing him back to San Francisco as well.

Dodgers, Twins Interested In Carlos Rodón

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The Dodgers and Twins are each facing some uncertainty in their rotations and are giving some consideration to lefty Carlos Rodón. Jon Heyman of The New York Post mentions the Dodgers as suitors while Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report the interest of the Twins.

The interest in Rodón isn’t surprising, given his excellent two-year run of success. After injuries severely limited him in 2019 and 2020, Rodón posted a 2.37 ERA with the White Sox in 2021, along with a 34.6% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. Rodón didn’t completely erase the injury concerns, as he went on the IL due to shoulder fatigue and only logged 132 2/3 innings on the year.

Those concerns were enough that the Sox didn’t issue him a qualifying offer. The Giants gave him a two-year, $44MM deal but one that allowed him to opt out after the first year if he hit 110 innings. He soared past that mark, finishing at 178 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate.

He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants but still was listed as the top pitcher on MLBTR’s list of the top free agents this offseason. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander will likely earn stronger annual salaries but will be limited to shorter pacts because of their ages. Rodón won’t turn 30 until next month and was predicted for a five-year deal worth $140MM, an average annual value of $28MM.

For the Dodgers, their uncertainty comes from a couple of factors. One is that Walker Buehler required Tommy John surgery in August and will likely miss all of the 2023 campaign. Secondly, they could potentially lose a couple of rotation members in free agency. Tyler Anderson already rejected their qualifying offer and signed with the Angels, while Andrew Heaney is still unsigned.

Despite that, the rotation is still in good shape, with Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May likely taking the first four spots. However, May just returned from his own Tommy John recovery in August and only made six starts down the stretch. Urias and Kershaw are both slated to reach free agency a year from now, with the latter seemingly giving some consideration to retirement every winter. Given all those question marks, an investment in the rotation makes plenty of sense.

A lengthy commitment to a starting pitcher would be a change in M.O. for the club, however. It appears that the last time they gave a starter more than three years was the four-year deal given to Brandon McCarthy prior to the 2015 season. They’ve generally preferred to find hidden gems on short-term deals, like the one-year pacts they gave to Anderson and Heaney going into 2022.

However, they’ve cleared a lot of payroll space this winter, meaning a big strike can’t be ruled out. Roster Resource currently pegs their 2023 payroll at $152MM, with a CBT number of $168MM. They could add about $60MM to next year’s spending and still be under the first luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM in 2023. They will surely be considering doing some spending on a shortstop or perhaps Aaron Judge. But given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $281MM in 2021, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they have enough dry powder to go after just about anyone they want.

The Twins can hardly match the Dodgers when it comes baseball’s financial hierarchy. However, they are in a good position to be more aggressive than some might expect. Their future commitments are pretty close to zero, with Byron Buxton the only player on the books for 2024 and beyond. For 2023, Roster Resource only counts $98MM in commitments at the moment, well shy of last year’s $134MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. There’s certainly room for a big contract of some kind, though the club’s first order of business might be seeing how Carlos Correa responds to their creative contract offers.

If a deal can’t be worked out with Correa, pivoting to Rodón makes sense given their rotation picture. They have lots of options on hand but they all come with uncertainty. Sonny Gray posted a 3.08 ERA in 2022 but injuries limited him to 24 starts and he’s a free agent next year. Tyler Mahle dealt with shoulder problems and only made four starts in a Twins uniform after being acquired from the Reds at the deadline. Like Gray, he’s a free agent after 2023. Kenta Maeda should be back in some form but he missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober had strong results in 2022 but both are still young, with neither having yet reached 200 career innings. Chris Paddack had Tommy John in May and could return in 2023, though likely not until the second half of the season. The club also had a batch of interesting pitching prospects, though they are naturally unproven as all prospects are, particularly pitchers.

If the Dodgers or Twins are serious in their pursuit of Rodón, they will have company. They join the Giants, Yankees and Rangers as teams with reported interested in his services.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

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The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

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