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The Yankees’ 2011 Rotation

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Continuing MLBTR's look at next season's probable and possible starting rotations, today we look at a staff that will likely be one of, if not the most, expensive in baseball.  The Yankees spent a little more than $63.5MM on their top five starters in 2010, and that total looks to go up next season.

Three spots in the rotation are secure.  C.C. Sabathia's 2.34 K/BB ratio is on pace to be his lowest since 2004 and his 3.0 BB/9 is on pace to be his highest since that same '04 season, but while these peripherals are of a minor concern when you have $115MM committed to a pitcher through 2015, Sabathia is still one of the top pitchers in the American League.

A.J. Burnett has had his typical hot-and-cold season, posting a 6.7 K/9 ratio that would be his lowest since 2001.  New York fans can expect to look forward to the Burnett rollercoaster of form for the next 3+ seasons.

Phil Hughes' first season as a regular starter got off to a tremendous start with a 2.70 ERA in April and May, though his June and July (5.34 ERA) were a different story.  The Yankees are already being cautious about their young star's innings total and have put an unofficial "Hughes Rules" cap of 170 IP on the right-hander for the rest of the season.  Hughes may be limited for the rest of 2010, but will be back in full force for next season.  He will reach arbitration for the first time this winter, so it's possible the Yankees may explore a longer-term deal to cover his arb years.

The fourth spot in the rotation will depend on the feelings of Andy Pettitte.  As he has for the last four winters, the veteran left-hander will decide on whether he wants to retire, or sign a one-year deal with the Yankees.  Pettitte can certainly still pitch — he's enjoying one of his best seasons (a 2.88 ERA, 2.37 K/BB ratio in 18 starts) though he's currently sidelined with a groin injury.  If Pettitte does return, he'll get a pay bump from the $11.75MM contract he signed last December, but the Yankees surely wouldn't mind giving a raise to a franchise stalwart that can still perform at a high level.

It's almost a certainty that Javier Vazquez won't be back with the Bronx Bombers next season.  The only question now seems to be whether the Yankees will offer arbitration to the free agent right-hander, as Vazquez is still hanging onto a Type A free agent status. 

Depending on what Pettitte does, at least one spot in the New York rotation is available for 2011.  It's widely expected that the Yankees will make a hard push to fill that spot with Cliff Lee when he reaches free agency this winter.  (They almost had him at the deadline had their trade with Seattle not fallen through at the eleventh hour.)  The Rangers have expressed their interest in re-signing Lee now that their ownership transfer has been settled and certainly other teams will look into the left-hander, but given that Lee will command a contract worth more than $20MM per year, it gives the Yankees the obvious advantage if things turn into a bidding war.

So if Lee (or another free agent starter) replaces Vazquez and Pettitte returns, New York is set.  If Pettitte retires, then he will likely let the Yankees know early in the offseason so the club can plan accordingly.  With the Bombers' big payroll, there's really no shortage of options for what they could do to fill that fifth spot in the rotation.  Free agents with AL East experience like Bronson Arroyo or Ted Lilly could be of interest, or perhaps the Yankees could go after a veteran with something to prove coming off an injury (i.e. Brandon Webb or Aaron Harang) who could be had at a small discount.

With Alex Rodriguez going on the DL today, 23-year-old Ivan Nova has been called up and will be inserted into the rotation for at least one start.  Nova has had an impressive year at Triple-A Scranton, posting a 2.86 ERA and 2.4 K/BB ratio in 23 starts.  If Nova does well in his late-season audition he could get a chance at more work in September should Hughes get shut down or have a turn skipped.  It's hard to see Nova or any other young starter, however, be given a clear shot at a rotation spot next year since the Yankees don't really have any starting prospects who aren't at least a year away from serious consideration.

Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley have made spot starts for New York this season and could be re-signed to provide rotation depth for 2011.  Both men are definitely backup options and could also be replaced by similar low-cost veteran pitchers that can alternate between the rotation and the bullpen as the situation warrants.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Lee, Feliz, Braves, Kershaw

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On this date two years ago, umpires agreed to the use of instant replay to help determine boundary calls, such as fair or foul, on home runs. Expanded use of instant replay remains a hot topic in baseball, and even though Commissioner Bud Selig continues to dance around the subject, more replay feels inevitable at this point.

Here are a bunch of links from around the baseball blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Greenberg Comments On Cliff Lee, Future Payroll

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As if being in first place with the third best record in the league didn't appeal enough to Rangers fans, new owners Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan have announced price rollbacks on everything from tickets to parking to concessions. That's all well and good, but I don't think anything would satisfy fans more than an extended run of success, and Greenberg told the AP (via The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that they plan on pulling out all the stops to retain Cliff Lee after the season to help continue the good times.

"We're fully prepared to bear the cost of [re-signing Lee] — and do it with a smile because we're here to win," said Greenberg. "Right now, the terms are secondary … What matters most now is demonstrating that this is a family."

"We feel like we have a pretty good handle on how to keep this team together with Cliff as a part of it," he added. "It's nothing that frightens us, and we'd be real happy to go into next season with that group and the cost that we project."

Lee remained diplomatic, saying that it's good for the organization to have some stability without ever indicating whether or not he'd like to return. With the possibility of a nine-figure payday just months away, it doesn't make sense for the lefty to do anything but remain completely neutral and keep all of his options open.

Because of all the young, cost controlled players on the roster, the Rangers' payroll this year is just shy of $65MM according to Cot's, one of the lowest in the game. Several players, most notably Josh Hamilton, C.J. Wilson, and Nelson Cruz will be due sizable raises in arbitration next year, but Texas has plenty of young players to fill out their roster on the cheap.

Greenberg indicated that the team will raise payroll in the future, something that's unavoidable if they plan on keeping Lee. He did not give a specific number unsurprisingly, saying it "would be a foolish thing to do because it would be an artificial number." Retaining Lee would put the team on the hook for upwards of $35MM in annual obligation for just two players when you consider Michael Young's salary, so a future payroll of $80-90MM or so isn't out of the question. 

Odds & Ends: Holt, Lee, Klein, Valentine, Villone

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Links for Thursday, exactly 23 years after the Braves and Tigers swapped Doyle Alexander and John Smoltz…

  • The Indians signed tenth round pick Tyler Holt according to Baseball America's Jim Callis. Holt's $500K bonus is the largest we've seen for a player drafted in a double-digit round this year. 
  • Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News wonders how much the Texas heat will play into Cliff Lee's decision about whether or not to re-sign with the Rangers after the season.
  • MLB.com' Brittany Ghiroli tweets that Orioles' third rounder Dan Klein is expected to report to one of the team's minor league affiliates once he passes his physical, indicating that the two sides have a deal in place.
  • Someone familiar with Bobby Valentine’s thinking tells Larry Stone of the Seattle Times that Valentine considers the Mariners managerial opening one of "the most appealing jobs in baseball.”
  • The Nationals released Ron Villone, according to Syracuse Chiefs broadcasters Jason Benetti and Mike Couzens (on Twitter). The veteran left-hander, who last pitched in the majors in 2009, posted a 6.59 ERA in Triple A this year.
  • The sale of the Rangers is now final, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes.
  • Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker previews some of the players who could soon make the jump from Japan to MLB. Wei-Yin Chen, a 25-year-old lefty represented by Alan Nero may be posted this offseason.
  • Veracruz, the Mexican team that holds the rights to pitching prospect Luis Heredia, will not entertain offers from MLB clubs until next Wednesday, August 18th, according to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  • Tim Chambers, Bryce Harper's college coach, told Byron Kerr of MASNSports.com that Harper, the first overall pick in this year’s draft, is “begging to play.” Chambers expects the Nationals to work out a deal by Monday night’s deadline.
  • Angels scouting director Eddie Bane told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that the Angels are "fairly close" to an agreement with first rounder Kaleb Cowart, though he expects negotiations to last until Monday, the deadline for signing draft picks.
  • Jamey Newberg counts down the ten biggest August trades in recent Rangers history for MLB.com. Rick Helling and Ryan Dempster have prominent roles on the list, which is worth checking out.

Chuck Greenberg Talks Rangers

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Jeff Wilson of Dallasnews.com conducted a Q&A with Chuck Greenberg regarding some of the changes that Rangers fans can expect with the new ownership. Here's some of the highlights:

  • The Rangers are very happy with Nolan Ryan, Jon Daniels, and Thad Levine on the baseball side of things. Greenberg says that financially, they have the resources to make the club competitive.
  • The Rangers would like to re-sign Cliff Lee following the 2010 season, and "keep their players," says Greenberg. He doesn't get into specific names aside from Lee, but one can presume that names like Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz are topping the list.
  • The extra $30MM Greenberg's group spent in purchasing the club will have "zero" effect on retaining players and improving the stadium. The purchase and improvement of the organization were budgeted for separately.
  • Greenberg praises the work of manager Ron Washington and says the players "love playing for him." Ultimately, however, the managerial decision for 2011 and beyond will be the responsibility of Daniels and Ryan. The duo also supports Washington, according to Greenberg.
  • Taking over in August isn't ideal timing, says Greenberg. They'll be limited in their ability to implement changes for the time being, but want to focus on sending the message to fans that their ballclub will be in good hands.

Odds & Ends: Lee, Brewers, Repko, Delgado

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Saturday night linkage..

Rangers Rumors: Lee, Daniels, Washington

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The last month has been kind to Rangers fans. They acquired Cliff Lee and a pair of veteran infielders and appear headed for financial stability now that the group headed by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan won the auction for the team. More importantly, the 63-45 Rangers seem destined for the playoffs. But what does the auction mean for the club? GM Jon Daniels explained some specifics to ESPNDallas.com’s Richard Durrett:

  • The Rangers aren’t worrying about re-signing Cliff Lee now, but their chances have improved since the auction. "In bankruptcy, we had no chance,"  Daniels said. "This improves that and I can’t really tell you how much until the season is behind us and we sit down and talk about it.”
  • Daniels repeated that he enjoys working for the Rangers and said he’s sure he’ll discuss his own contract status with the team when the time is right.
  • The Rangers aren’t going to finalize anything with manager Ron Washington until after the season, but Daniels told MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan that “it's very clear that Ron is our guy and Ron will be our manager in 2011." Washington's contract expires after the season and Daniels' contract expires after 2011.

Odds & Ends: Pedro, DeShields, Myers, Lee

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Links for Thursday, as Juan Pierre picks up his 500th career stolen base…

Daniels On Hamilton, Vlad, Lee, Scheppers

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Rangers GM Jon Daniels chatted with ESPN readers yesterday afternoon.  A few nuggets:

  • Daniels explained that Josh Hamilton will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season, and "a lot can happen between now and then that could keep him in Texas beyond that point."  Hamilton reportedly turned down a four-year, $24MM offer in 2009.  Rangers president Nolan Ryan recently testified that Hamilton's salary could jump to $8-10MM in 2010 if he wins the MVP award. 
  • Daniels has let the agents for Vladimir Guerrero and Cliff Lee know he'd like to re-sign their clients, but he feels it's best to talk specifics in the offseason.
  • It's "certainly possible" Tanner Scheppers will make his MLB debut this year, and Daniels says the Rangers "don't really make decisions based on service time."  The 23-year-old righty sports a 3.76 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 52.6 Triple A innings this year.
  • The Rangers were discussing Cristian Guzman with the Nationals prior to Ian Kinsler's injury; Daniels viewed Guzman as a luxury at that point.
  • The expectation is that the Rangers will be able to announce the player to be named received from the Red Sox in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia deal shortly.
  • Daniels has a clause in his contract that allows him to leave if the Rangers are sold to a group other than the one fronted by Chuck Greenberg, but he said yesterday that "leaving the Rangers is not remotely on my mind" and "I love it here."

Cafardo On Lee, Edmonds, Dunn, Kelly

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In this week's installment of his Baseball Notes column, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo breaks down the winners and losers of the trade deadline. His assessment includes a few surprises, such as praising the inactive Blue Jays for "not settling for pennies on the dollar." Here are the rest of the highlights from Cafardo's piece:

  • This year's deadline could make teams even less willing to include no-trade clauses in future contracts. Players like Derrek Lee and Roy Oswalt took advantage of their clauses, making it difficult, or in Lee's case impossible, for their respective clubs to move them.
  • Having said that, Cliff Lee "has made it clear" he wants a no-trade clause in his next deal, having played for four different clubs in the past two seasons. As the best pitcher available this winter, he should be in a position to make that demand.
  • The Brewers would like to keep Jim Edmonds around past this season if he's healthy and willing to return. It appears, however, that he's leaning toward retirement.
  • Had David Ortiz not turned his season around earlier this year, the Red Sox would have been one of the teams in on Adam Dunn before the deadline.
  • With the Red Sox' starting rotation currently full, a few teams thought Boston may part with Casey Kelly. According to Cafardo, the Sox may try to move Daisuke Matsuzaka when they feel Kelly is major league ready.
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