Craig Kimbrel

Orioles Notes: Kimbrel, Bullpen, Rotation

By Anthony Franco | May 10, 2024 at 9:54pm CDT

The Orioles locked down a 4-2 win over the Diamondbacks tonight, pulling to an AL-best 25-12 record. The victory, which included some interesting decisions from Brandon Hyde, featured 4 1/3 scoreless innings from the bullpen behind Cole Irvin.

Baltimore’s skipper called upon Craig Kimbrel to pitch the seventh inning with the team holding a one-run lead. Kimbrel retired Blaze Alexander, Kevin Newman and Ketel Marte in order. Jacob Webb, Cionel Pérez and Yennier Cano followed in relief to secure the victory.

It’s the first time this season that Kimbrel has entered a game before the ninth inning. The nine-time All-Star has hit a rough patch of late, failing to finish off save opportunities against the Reds and Nationals in his previous two appearances. After the game, Hyde demurred when asked whether Kimbrel was being pulled from the closer job. The manager said Kimbrel’s role is “day to day” and that he hoped to get the scuffling right-hander a different look this evening (X link via Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun).

Even if the O’s decide to move away from Kimbrel as a full-time closer, he’s clearly still among their most important relievers. Protecting a one-run lead in the seventh is a high-leverage spot — although it did come against the 8-9-1 hitters in the Arizona batting order. Webb and Cano have arguably been Baltimore’s two best relievers this year, so they’re probably better suited than Kimbrel to take on the middle of an opponent’s lineup.

The O’s signed Kimbrel to a $13MM free agent deal with the hope that he’d solidify the ninth after Félix Bautista’s Tommy John procedure. Kimbrel has technically gone 8-11 in save opportunities, but his two previous appearances — in which he didn’t complete the ninth inning but was pulled before the O’s relinquished the lead — aren’t considered blown saves. Kimbrel had only successfully locked down the game in one of his last five tries.

Including tonight’s performance, he owns a 4.40 ERA through 14 1/3 innings. Kimbrel has punched out 22 of 62 batters faced (an excellent 35.5% rate) but he has also walked nearly 15% of his opponents. He’d walked between 10 and 11% of hitters in each of the previous two seasons with the Dodgers and Phillies. While Kimbrel had a couple rough outings in the postseason with Philadelphia, he went 23-28 on save opportunities with a 3.26 ERA during the regular season last year.

Hyde could take a broadly flexible approach to the entire pitching staff. Beyond potentially shuffling the high-leverage bullpen roles, he told reporters before tonight’s game that the team would consider moving to a six-man rotation when the schedule necessitates (relayed on X by Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). Baltimore is off next Thursday before playing 14 straight through May 30. The following month is particularly grueling, as the O’s only have one day off in June (on 6/17).

Baltimore is currently operating with a five-man staff comprising Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, John Means, Dean Kremer and Irvin. Right-handers Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells are on the 15-day injured list. Rodriguez doesn’t seem far off from returning and will surely step back into the MLB rotation when healthy. With Irvin and Kremer pitching very well of late, there’s sense in moving to a six-man staff when Rodriguez is back given the upcoming heavy schedule.

Orioles Notes: Tate, Kimbrel, Norby

By Steve Adams | April 30, 2024 at 12:11pm CDT

The Orioles announced last night that right-hander Dillon Tate has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, thus opening a roster spot for lefty Cionel Perez to return from the injured list. Perez missed the past month with an oblique strain.

It’s a somewhat surprising move, if only because Tate hasn’t been optioned to the minors since the 2019 season. The right-hander has been a constant in Baltimore’s bullpen when healthy over the past several seasons, pitching to a combined 3.90 ERA with a sub-par 19% strikeout rate but strong 7.5% walk rate and borderline elite 58.3% ground-ball rate dating back to that 2019 campaign. He’s missed time along the way, including a season-long absence just last year while he battled a flexor strain.

Tate, 29, entered the current season with 4.048 years of big league service time and picked up another 32 days prior to yesterday’s option. He needs to accrue an additional 92 days of service in 2024 to reach five years and remain on track for free agency following the 2025 season. Once he does reach that five-year mark — whenever that may be — he’d also be granted the perk of needing to give his consent to be optioned again in the future.

For now, the O’s can continue to shuttle Tate back and forth if they see fit. He’s gotten out to a solid start in his return effort, pitching to a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings. Tate’s 12.2% strikeout rate is concerning enough on its own, but when coupled with a matching 12.2% walk rate it’s fair to question how long he can sustain the results he’s generated to date. His 61.1% grounder rate remains outstanding, but Tate’s average sinker velocity is down from 2021’s 95.5 mph peak all the way to 91.9 mph in 2024. Given the concerning K-BB profile and dip in velocity, it’s understandable if the Orioles want him to work on some things in Norfolk. He’d also pitched on consecutive days and was thus likely to be unavailable last night.

Tate’s demotion and Perez’s return shake up what’s been a middle-of-the-pack bullpen overall this season. Baltimore relievers rank 16th in baseball with a 3.88 ERA, although they sit fourth and sixth, respectively, with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate. That comes despite the absence of star closer Felix Bautista, who won’t pitch this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Veteran Craig Kimbrel signed a one-year deal to take over as the closer and has generally pitched well, though he’s run into some troubles of late and is currently day-to-day with back discomfort after exiting his Sunday appearance.

Manager Brandon Hyde said yesterday that Kimbrel was feeling better than on Sunday and that the team remains hopeful he can avoid a trip to the 15-day injured list (X link via MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski). The 35-year-old allowed just one earned run with a scintillating 17-to-2 K/BB ratio in his first 11 innings this season but has given up three runs on three hits and four walks over his last two appearances — all while recording only two outs. Kimbrel’s velocity held strong, but it’s clear he was struggling with his command over those two outings — quite possibly due to the current back ailment he’s facing. Time will tell whether the O’s make an IL move, but to this point that doesn’t appear to be in the cards.

One other topic weighing on the minds of Orioles fans at the moment is when top prospect Connor Norby might get his first look in the big leagues. Many thought that might’ve been the corresponding move when Jackson Holliday was optioned after his early struggles, but Baltimore instead brought back outfielder Ryan McKenna, who’s also been getting some infield work at second base to expand his versatility.

Norby may not have gotten the call just yet, but “his time is coming,” general manager Mike Elias tells Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun. Elias notes that Norby, a 2021 second-rounder who’s been ranked among the sport’s top-100 prospects in the past, is still working to refine his defensive skills at both second base and in the outfield corners — the latter of which is newer to his skill set. The O’s played Norby in left field for just 58 innings in 2022 but ramped him up to a combined 258 innings between the outfield corners last season. He’s already logged 144 innings of outfield work this season, compared to just 69 at second base.

Elias didn’t place a specific timetable on Norby’s potential ascension to the big leagues. However, the 23-year-old is out to a nice .274/.346/.487 slash this season in Norfolk, having connected on six homers and six doubles to go along with a pair of steals. This year’s 29.1% strikeout rate is a bit concerning and possibly another contributing factor to Norby remaining in the minors; he fanned at just a 21.6% clip in 633 plate appearances there last season. Meyer chatted with both Elias and Norby’s former (and presumably future) teammate Colton Cowser about the promising prospect’s work ethic and long-term outlook, which O’s fans will want to check out in full.

AL East Notes: Kimbrel, Irvin, Kahnle, Whitlock

By Mark Polishuk | April 28, 2024 at 5:55pm CDT

Craig Kimbrel blew a save and was charged with the loss in the Orioles’ 7-6 defeat to the Athletics today, but the veteran closer’s health may be of greater concern. Kimbrel walked Darell Hernaiz and was then visited by the team trainer on the mound, but stayed in the game and allowed a homer to Kyle McCann. That prompted another trainer’s visit and Kimbrel’s departure, and manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) postgame that Kimbrel was dealing with some upper back tightness. The right-hander was still receiving treatment and it isn’t yet known if a trip to the injured list might be in order.

Kimbrel has failed to convert either of his last two save opportunities, marking his first blown save since his first appearances of the season. In between, he reeled off seven saves and a perfect 0.00 in 10 innings of work, and even today’s outing only boosts his ERA to 3.18 for the season. Overall, the 35-year-old has performed as expected after signing a one-year deal worth $13MM in guaranteed money last winter, as Baltimore was looking for a ninth-inning specialist after Felix Bautista was lost to Tommy John surgery. If Kimbrel needs some recovery time, Yennier Cano or Danny Coulombe are the likeliest candidates to move into closer duties, which would then necessitate another arm being shuffled into the bullpen. One possible relief candidate might be starter Albert Suarez, who is out of minor league options but has pitched so well in fill-in starter duty that the O’s likely don’t want to expose him to waivers in order to move him back to Triple-A. With Kyle Bradish and John Means nearing returns from the IL, the Orioles are in the enviable position of having too many good starters, yet as we’ve potentially seen with this Kimbrel situation, injuries have a way of quickly solving any surpluses.

Orioles Sign Craig Kimbrel

By Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald | December 7, 2023 at 1:20pm CDT

December 7: Kimbrel can increase the value of the buyout based on game and games finished in 2024, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It will be an extra $100K for pitching in 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 games, as well as another $100K for finishing the same amounts. If Kimbrel were to max out all of those, the buyout would jump to $2MM.

December 6: The Orioles announced the signing of closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. It’s a reported $13M guarantee for the SportsMeter client. Kimbrel will make $12MM in 2024 with a $1MM buyout on a $13MM option for ’25.

Baltimore has been looking to fortify the back of their bullpen this winter, with Félix Bautista set to miss the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. In that search, they have been connected in rumors to just about every notable reliever, including Josh Hader, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks, though those guys are set for multi-year deals.

Details of this deal between the O’s and Kimbrel aren’t known but it’s possible it’s a one-year deal, since he settled for a one-year pact last offseason and is now going into his age-36 campaign. In that case, Kimbrel could act as a bridge, covering the closing role in Baltimore for one season and then relinquishing it to Bautista for 2025.

Kimbrel has a lengthy track record of having been one of the most dominant relievers in the game, having racked up 417 saves since debuting with Atlanta back in 2010. Recent years have been a bit more rocky but he’s coming off a generally solid season.

Over 2019 and 2020 with the Cubs, Kimbrel had an earned run average of 6.00 in 36 innings, a noticeable slide since his previous nine seasons only once resulted in an ERA over 2.74. He got back on track in 2021 with an ERA of 2.26 between the Cubs and White Sox, though he was far better before being traded than after. His ERA was a ridiculous 0.49 before the deal but 5.09 after. He was traded to the Dodgers for the 2022 season and posted a respectable 3.75 ERA, but he was shaky enough that year to get removed from the closer’s role in September and then left off that club’s playoff roster.

Kimbrel signed with the Phillies for 2023, a one-year deal with a $10MM guarantee. He tossed 69 innings for the Phils over 71 appearances this year, finishing with a 3.26 ERA, 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He earned 23 saves and seven holds in the process. He didn’t fare so well in the postseason, allowing four earned runs in six innings, but that’s a tiny sample of work relative to the season overall.

That won’t quite live up to Bautista’s recent performance, but there are few pitchers in the world who could. His first two seasons in the big leagues resulted in a 1.85 ERA and 40.4% strikeout rate. Only Edwin Díaz, who missed 2023 due to knee surgery, had a higher strikeout percentage in that time. But Kimbrel will nonetheless strengthen the bullpen relative to where it was a few days ago, joining other high-leverage relievers such as Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe.

Assuming Kimbrel is in the closer’s role, he will have a chance to continue climbing the all-time saves leaderboard. Kenley Jansen currently sits seventh on that list with 420 while Kimbrel is eighth with 417. Both of those closers will have a chance to jump three more spots in 2024. Billy Wagner is currently sixth with 422, John Franco is fifth with 424 and Francisco Rodríguez is fourth with 437. That means each of Jansen and Kimbrel could be in the top five by the end of next year.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the O’s and Kimbrel were in serious discussions. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the sides were nearing and then in agreement on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the financial terms.

Orioles “Seriously Engaged” On Craig Kimbrel

By Anthony Franco | December 5, 2023 at 11:55pm CDT

The Orioles are “seriously engaged” on free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (X link). Baltimore has been involved on a number of late-game bullpen arms as they look to compensate for the loss of Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery.

Kimbrel wouldn’t be as notable a pickup as Josh Hader or Jordan Hicks, in whom Baltimore reportedly also expressed interest. Kimbrel would be a far more affordable acquisition, though. That’s more a reflection of his age (36 in May) than performance, as the nine-time All-Star turned in a generally solid showing for the Phillies.

After inking a $10MM free agent contract with Philadelphia last winter, Kimbrel operated in his customary closing role. He picked up 23 saves with seven more holds while blowing only five leads in the regular season. The right-hander worked to a 3.26 ERA through 69 innings, striking out a little over a third of opponents in the process. Kimbrel’s fastball sat in the customary 96 MPH range, while he picked up a whiff on nearly 14% of his offerings.

It was a good season overall, even if it ended on a less resounding note. Kimbrel allowed four runs with five strikeouts and walks apiece over six innings in the postseason. It was the second consecutive season that didn’t end as he’d hoped; Kimbrel had been left off the Dodgers’ playoff roster in 2022. Yet his overall body of work over the past three years — a 3.10 ERA with a 34.4% strikeout percentage across 188 2/3 innings — is quite strong.

With the possible exception of Hader, no pitcher could reasonably be expected to rival what the O’s would’ve anticipated from a healthy Bautista. Kimbrel remains an above-average reliever, though, one who clearly has no qualms handling the ninth inning. If the O’s plugged him in as closer for a season, they’d be able to keep Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe in a setup capacity.

Orioles Have Shown Interest In Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks

By Anthony Franco | November 30, 2023 at 10:29pm CDT

At the GM Meetings earlier this month, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters the team was seeking a late-game reliever. They’re considering plugging that vacancy in free agency.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the O’s have been in contact with each of Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman. All four hurlers fit the general profile of a late-inning arm, although they’re clearly in different tiers of free agency.

Hader is the best reliever in the class (and arguably the top bullpen arm in the majors). He worked to a 1.28 ERA over 56 1/3 innings during his platform season. The lanky southpaw punched out 36.8% of batters faced. That’s actually Hader’s lowest strikeout percentage since his rookie year, yet it still ranked fifth in MLB among relievers with 50+ innings. Only Chris Martin and Brusdar Graterol had a lower earned run average.

After frequently working multiple innings earlier in his career, Hader has expressed a preference for a traditional one-inning role over the past couple years. The Padres deployed him as a closer. He picked up 33 saves in 38 attempts.

The year marked an emphatic bounce back from a 2022 season in which he’d posted an uncharacteristic 5.22 ERA. Hader has posted an ERA under 1.30 in two of the last three years and has five sub-3.00 showings over his seven MLB seasons. While he’s a year older than Edwin Díaz was last offseason, Hader figures to take aim at topping Diaz’s $102MM guarantee with the Mets — the largest relief contract in MLB history.

Committing a nine-figure deal would be far bolder than any free agent decision that the Elias front office has made. The O’s have remarkably yet to sign a single multi-year free agent deal in his five years as GM. Much of that came during a rebuild, of course, but the O’s remained cautious even as they’d begun to turn a corner last winter. Baltimore signed a trio of veterans (Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and Mychal Givens) for a combined $23MM on one-year guarantees.

After a breakout season that saw the O’s win 101 games to take the top seed in the American League, the front office should be more aggressive than ever. Bringing in Hader would represent a very significant shift in operating procedure. In addition to the huge financial commitment, Baltimore would have to relinquish their third-highest pick in next summer’s draft. Hader declined a qualifying offer from the Padres, so he’s attached to signing compensation.

If the O’s are willing to meet those costs, Hader is a sensible target. He’s one of the few relievers who can approach the kind of production the O’s lost when Félix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery that’ll cost him the entire 2024 season. Hader is also a Maryland native who began his professional career as a 19th-round pick by the Orioles in 2012. While that selection was made by a previous front office, Elias was a high-ranking scouting official with the Astros when Houston acquired Hader as a prospect at the 2013 deadline.

Hader is in his own tier as a free agent relief target. Hicks finds himself in the next group, arguably the #2 option on the open market. One of the hardest throwers in the sport, he averages around 100 MPH on his sinker. Hicks has wobbly control but consistently runs huge ground-ball numbers. He’s coming off arguably the best season of his career, turning in 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball between the Cardinals and Blue Jays. The righty struck out a solid 28.4% of batters faced, the highest rate of his career.

Injuries (most notably a June ’19 Tommy John procedure) dogged Hicks between 2019-21. He has mostly stayed healthy over the past two seasons, topping 60 frames in each. He’s also the youngest free agent reliever of note, having turned 27 in September. Hicks should secure at least three years and has a solid case for a four-year pact at an average annual value in the $8-10MM range.

Chapman and Kimbrel would be shorter-term plays. Two of the best closers of their generation, they’re each entering their age-36 campaign. Both pitchers have battled some inconsistency in recent seasons, but they’re coming off solid 2023 performances. Chapman worked to a 3.09 ERA with an eye-popping 41.4% strikeout percentage over 58 1/3 frames between the Royals and Rangers. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA while fanning a little over a third of his opponents in 69 regular season innings with Philadelphia, although he struggled over six innings in the playoffs.

The Phillies’ Bullpen Overhaul

By Anthony Franco | August 17, 2023 at 10:02pm CDT

For a few seasons, the Phillies’ primary concern has been the bullpen. Even last year’s pennant-winning squad succeeded largely in spite of a relief corps that finished the regular season ranked 23rd in ERA.

Philadelphia followed up its NL championship with an active offseason headlined by free agent deals for Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker. Those pacts have had mixed results in the early going, but Philadelphia has found more defined success in another area — a complete restructure of the bullpen.

Seven pitchers have thrown 30+ innings out of the ’pen for Rob Thomson on the season. Six of them were acquired since the start of last offseason. One of the offseason pickups, left-hander Andrew Vasquez, has since been designated for assignment and lost on waivers to the Tigers — though even he provided the Phils with 39 2/3 frames of 2.27 ERA ball before being cut.

Of the relievers currently on Philadelphia’s active roster, only Seranthony Domínguez was on the roster at this time a season ago. Some of that is by chance; José Alvarado is currently on the injured list and will surely reassume a high-leverage role when healthy. Yet it also hints at how aggressively the front office has turned things over.

It’s hard to argue with the results. Philadelphia relievers entered play Thursday ranked ninth in the majors with a 3.76 ERA. Their 24.9% strikeout rate ranks eighth. They’re in the bottom half of the league in blown saves. Philadelphia’s bullpen isn’t the best in the league, but it’s strong enough the front office went through deadline season without supplementing the group.

A look at some of the Phils’ bullpen upgrades since last winter:

Craig Kimbrel

Philadelphia rolled the dice on Kimbrel at a time when his stock was at a low ebb. The veteran righty is one of the best relievers of his generation, but his recent track record has been up-and-down. Kimbrel was excellent for the Cubs in the first half of 2021, struggled after a deadline trade to the White Sox, then had an average ’22 season with the Dodgers. While his 3.75 ERA through 60 frames last year wasn’t bad, the Dodgers were concerned enough about his performance down the stretch to leave him as a healthy scratch in the postseason.

The Phils guaranteed Kimbrel $10MM on a one-year free agent deal. They could hardly have expected better than the performance he’s turned in. Through 52 innings, he has a 3.12 ERA while locking down 19 of 21 save opportunities. Kimbrel has fanned an excellent 34.6% of opposing hitters after that mark dipped to 27.7% a season ago. He earned his ninth All-Star nod, has solidified the ninth inning, and is trending towards a more lucrative free agent trip next winter.

Matt Strahm

Strahm inked a two-year, $15MM free agent pact. He has been an effective and versatile piece of the pitching staff. Pressed into rotation duty early on by injuries, Strahm was solid over nine starts. He’s been downright excellent in his traditional bullpen role. The emergence of Cristopher Sánchez and deadline pickup of Michael Lorenzen should position Philadelphia to keep Strahm in relief for the rest of the year.

Over 40 1/3 frames as a reliever, the southpaw carries a 2.68 ERA. He’s stifling opponents to a .207/.248/.407 batting line, striking out 31% of batters faced against a tidy 5.7% walk rate. Hitters are swinging through 14% of his offerings. Strahm handles hitters from both sides of the plate and has worked multiple innings out of the ’pen on 13 occasions.

Jeff Hoffman

The most surprising name among this group, Hoffman wasn’t technically an offseason pickup. Granted his release by the Twins at the conclusion of Spring Training, he signed a minor league pact with Philadelphia during the first week of the regular season. The veteran righty spent a month in Triple-A before triggering an opt-out clause that required the team to either add him to the MLB roster or release him.

Philadelphia chose the former option. They’re unquestionably pleased they did. Playing on a prorated $1.3MM salary, Hoffman has turned in a career-low 2.86 ERA over 34 2/3 innings. He’s striking out over 33% of opponents after never topping a 23.6% strikeout rate in any prior season. Hoffman has completely overhauled his pitch mix. His average fastball speed is up to 97.1 MPH after checking in at 94.3 MPH with the Reds last year. More importantly, he’s leaned dramatically more heavily on a slider that has become one of the best weapons in the sport.

Among relievers with 30+ innings, just 12 are inducing whiffs at a higher rate than Hoffman’s 16.6% clip. After spending the better part of two months in mop-up work, Hoffman has deservedly pitched his way into higher-leverage innings coming out of the All-Star Break. At age 30, the former ninth overall pick is showing all the traits of an impact reliever. Only adding to the appeal: Hoffman will be eligible for arbitration next winter, so the Phils can affordably keep him around for another season.

Gregory Soto

Philadelphia’s highest-profile trade pickup of the offseason, Soto has had more mixed results than any of Kimbrel, Strahm or Hoffman. His 4.73 ERA through 45 2/3 frames isn’t eye-catching. The southpaw’s underlying marks are better than the ERA would suggest, albeit not quite what the Phils likely envisioned when sending Matt Vierling, Donny Sands and Nick Maton to Detroit.

Soto has struck out a decent but unexceptional 23.4% of batters faced. He’s gotten his walk rate to a career-low 9.4% clip and is picking up grounders on a solid 48.4% of balls in play. His production has been exceedingly platoon dependent, however. Left-handed hitters have a pitiful .100/.179/.183 line through 67 plate appearances, while righties have tagged Soto for a .279/.360/.396 clip in 125 trips. He’s a useful reliever, but it’s hard not to feel there’s still some untapped upside with a lefty whose sinker averages 98 MPH. Soto is making just under $4MM this season and eligible for arbitration twice more.

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The Phils have had other more modest additions as well. Yunior Marté, picked up in a January trade with the Giants, has contributed 35 mostly low-leverage innings. Despite average peripherals, he owns a 5.14 ERA. May waiver claim Dylan Covey was tattooed in his lone start of the year but has chipped in a 2.96 ERA through 24 1/3 innings of long relief.

While those are relatively minor contributions, the Phillies turned the bullpen from a potentially serious weakness to a decent strength in a matter of months. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has faced criticism in prior seasons regarding the bullpens his front offices have put together. While it remains to be seen how this group will perform in October should the Phils hang onto a Wild Card spot, the regular season results have been quite strong — headlined by a pair of adept free agent pickups and hitting on one of the best minor league pacts of the season.

Phillies Sign Craig Kimbrel

By Anthony Franco | January 4, 2023 at 1:00pm CDT

January 4: The Phillies have officially announced Kimbrel’s signing.

December 23: The Phillies are adding an established closer. They’re reportedly in agreement with Craig Kimbrel on a one-year, $10MM pact. Kimbrel is a SportsMeter client.

Philadelphia will be the seventh MLB team for Kimbrel, who is headed into his 14th season. He returns to the NL East, where he was arguably the sport’s best closer from 2011-14 as a member of the Braves. Kimbrel remained excellent after being dealt to the Padres and subsequently to the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski was running baseball operations in Boston while Kimbrel was there for three straight All-Star seasons between 2016-18. They’re now reunited with Dombrowski leading the charge in Philly.

Since leaving the Red Sox, Kimbrel has had his share of ups and downs. He lingered in free agency until June 2019 before securing a three-year commitment from the Cubs. That deal looked like a misfire after he posted an even 6.00 ERA in 41 appearances through the end of the 2020 campaign. However, he looked good as ever at the start of the third season. The right-hander posted a microscopic 0.57 ERA through 31 2/3 innings in the first half of 2021, securing his eighth All-Star selection in the process. The Cubs flipped him to the crosstown White Sox in a deadline deal that brought back Nick Madrigal.

Kimbrel didn’t finish the season all that well, posting a 5.09 ERA for the Sox. Chicago exercised a $16MM option on his services for the 2022 season but shopped him most of last winter. In the days leading up to Opening Day, they sent him to the Dodgers in a one-for-one swap for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel spent his age-34 campaign in Los Angeles, putting up solid numbers overall but showing some worrisome signs down the stretch.

While his first half ERA was a pedestrian 4.35, he struck out more than a third of opponents in that time. The Dodgers relied upon him as their primary closer early in the year, but he began to fall out of favor as the season pulled along. Kimbrel’s strikeout rate in the second half was a modest 20.7%. His ERA checked in at 3.10 thanks to a meager .227 batting average on balls in play against him. The Dodgers were clearly skeptical of Kimbrel’s ability to maintain that kind of batted ball fortune. They removed him from the ninth inning in September and scratched him from the roster entirely come playoff time.

It’s surely not the way either Kimbrel or the team envisioned the season ending, but his 2022 campaign was hardly a disaster. He posted a 3.75 ERA across 60 innings overall. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.1% swinging strike percentage were each a bit better than par, and he averaged a quality 95.8 MPH on his fastball. He walked batters at a elevated 10.8% clip and gave up a fair bit of hard contact, but he still showed quality bat-missing stuff. While it wasn’t vintage Kimbrel or even at the level of his 2021 production, he showed enough to believe he’s still capable of solid play.

Kimbrel went 22 of 27 on save attempts this year. He’s now up to 394 saves for his career, most of any active player. Kimbrel should soon become the seventh pitcher in MLB history to reach the 400-save mark, and he’ll have a path back to ninth-inning work in Philadelphia. Players like José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez previously stood as the in-house favorites for closing work, though they’re each capable of taking on higher-leverage responsibilities in the seventh or eight inning.

It’s a relatively low-cost gamble for the Phils, matching the $10MM flier they took on Corey Knebel last offseason. They’ll have to tack on a few million extra in taxes, as they’re likely to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a second straight season. Philadelphia’s luxury tax commitments are up to approximately $251MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’re subject to a 30% tax on every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, so the Kimbrel signing comes with an extra $3MM in fees. It also brings them within a couple million dollars of the second CBT threshold at $253MM. That would come with a 42% tax on overages, with higher penalties in the event they top $273MM.

Precisely where owner John Middleton wants to draw the line isn’t clear, though the Phils have little reason to spare much expense on the heels of a pennant win. Philadelphia has already brought in Trea Turner and Taijuan Walker this winter, and Kimbrel joins Matt Strahm as relief additions. The Phils are set for another battle with the Mets and Braves in a top-heavy NL East, and they’ll hope Kimbrel has plenty of opportunities to lock down wins at the back end of the bullpen.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Kimbrel and the Phillies had agreed to a contract. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the one-year, $10MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Dodgers’ NLDS Roster Does Not Include Craig Kimbrel

By Darragh McDonald | October 11, 2022 at 1:31pm CDT

The Dodgers announced their roster for the NLDS today, with right-hander Craig Kimbrel not making the cut. Here’s who did make it…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Austin Barnes
Will Smith

Infielders

Outfielders

The Dodgers are in the postseason for a tenth consecutive season, winning the NL West in each of those seasons except last year. However, 2022 was the most impressive of the bunch as the club went 111-51, the highest win total in franchise history. They will now face off against division rivals, squaring up against the Padres in a best-of-five series.

Kimbrel’s omission from the roster is the latest step in what has been an extremely mercurial portion of his career. From 2010 to 2018, Kimbrel was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport, pitching to a 1.91 ERA while striking out 41.6% of batters faced and racking up 333 saves.

Since then, however, it’s been a rollercoaster for the righty. He was issued a qualifying offer by the Red Sox after the 2018 season, which he declined. He lingered on the open market all the way until June, eventually signing with the Cubs once the draft had already taken place and he was no longer attached to draft pick forfeiture. After missing nearly half the season, Kimbrel struggled that year by putting up a 6.53 ERA, then struggled again the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign with a 5.28 ERA.

In the first half of 2021, he seemingly got the train back on the tracks, registering a 0.49 ERA over 36 2/3 innings, getting traded from the Cubs to the White Sox. However, the pendulum swung the other way after the trade, with Kimbrel posting a 5.09 ERA after moving across town. Nonetheless, they Sox picked up his $16MM option before trading him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock. Kimbrel recorded 22 saves for Los Angeles but was eventually moved off the closer role in September and now seems to have dropped far enough on the bullpen chart to be excluded from their playoff plans, unless an injury opens a spot for him down the line. He has a 3.75 ERA on the season, with a 27.7% strikeout rate that’s above league average but well below any of his previous seasons.

The exclusion of Kimbrel might actually say more about the Dodger bullpen than it does about him. Overall, the club’s relievers posted a 2.87 ERA this year, second only to the Astros, though L.A.’s bullpen logged 85 2/3 more innings than Houston’s. Along with quality starting pitching, an elite offense and strong defense, it’s not hard to see how this was the best team in baseball this year.

Dodgers Remove Craig Kimbrel From Closer Role

By Anthony Franco | September 23, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

The Dodgers are going to take a closer-by-comittee approach for the remainder of the regular season, manager Dave Roberts informed reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). Craig Kimbrel will pitch in different roles while the club takes a variable approach to the ninth inning based on matchups.

Roberts didn’t guarantee he’d stick with the committee approach through the playoffs, although it’s hard to envision the Dodgers removing Kimbrel from the closing role for the final 12 regular season games before reinstalling him in the ninth at the start of the postseason. The decision comes in the wake of a dip in production for the eight-time All-Star, who has surrendered runs in three of his last four outings. That includes a game-tying homer to Christian Walker to blow a save opportunity yesterday against the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers walked off in the bottom of the ninth inning anyhow, but the blown lead finalized the team’s decision to take a more flexible approach with the playoffs on the horizon.

Kimbrel is in his first season as a Dodger. Acquired from the White Sox in a surprising one-for-one swap with AJ Pollock just before Opening Day, he’s made 57 appearances. Kimbrel certainly hasn’t been disastrous. He owns a 4.14 ERA across 54 1/3 innings, striking out an above-average 27.2% of opponents. His 9.6% walk rate is a bit higher than the league mark but not an untenable figure. He has successfully closed out 22 of his 27 save attempts. The right-hander’s overall production has been fine if unspectacular.

Nevertheless, Kimbrel clearly hasn’t performed at the level at which the Dodgers were hoping. The 34-year-old was arguably the best reliever in the game through last season’s first half with the Cubs. While he disappointed following a deadline trade to the White Sox — largely due to home run troubles — he still generated whiffs on an excellent 17.2% of his offerings with the South Siders. That led to some hope Kimbrel could continue pitching at an elite level in a new environment, but this season’s 12.1% swinging strike rate is only a bit better than average.

Taking Kimbrel out of the ninth inning should allow Roberts to be more judicious with his usage once the postseason arrives. Maximizing his work against right-handed hitters figures to be a priority. Kimbrel has held same-handed batters to a .208/.296/.307 line across 115 plate appearances this season; lefties, on the other hand, have managed a much more robust .266/.355/.431 showing in 124 trips.

The White Sox picked up a $16MM option on Kimbrel for this season before trading him to L.A. He’s in the final few weeks of that deal and will hit free agency for the second time in his career this offseason. In the interim, he’ll remain part of one of the game’s top relief corps.

That the Dodgers feel equipped to take the career-long closer out of the ninth inning is a testament to the strength of the remainder of their bullpen. Los Angeles enters play Friday with the majors’ second-lowest bullpen ERA (2.94) and fourth-best strikeout percentage (26.5%). Evan Phillips, a waiver claim from the Rays last August, almost immediately emerged as one of the best relievers in the game. The slider specialist has a 1.24 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate over 58 innings during his breakout campaign. Flamethrowing sinkerballer Brusdar Graterol has ridden a massive 63.5% ground-ball percentage to a 2.96 ERA. Deadline acqusition Chris Martin has a 1.71 mark with a laughable 26:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio since landing in Los Angeles. Southpaw Alex Vesia has the bullpen’s best strikeout rate (34.6%) and a 2.24 ERA in 51 2/3 frames.

That quartet looks likeliest to assume the highest-leverage work in the playoffs. Roberts can also call upon Kimbrel, Phil Bickford and Tommy Kahnle from the right side, while Caleb Ferguson and the rehabbing David Price are left-handed options. Yency Almonte has had a nice season of his own and is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City, and there’s still a possibility of Blake Treinen making a playoff return (although Treinen is currently on the injured list and continues to battle shoulder discomfort).

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