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Injury Notes: Hall, Lawlar, Garrett, Gipson-Long

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As of a few days ago, it seemed like left-hander DL Hall was on the cusp of returning to the Brewers after going on the injured list in April due to a left knee sprain. But his rehab outing on July 4 was shortened by rain and the club decided to give him one more rehab start, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on X.

He took the ball for Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and started out with two scoreless innings but then the leadoff hitter in the third lined a pitch back to the mound and hit Hall’s left forearm. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com relayed video of the play on X. Per Hogg on X, Hall avoided a fracture but will be shut down for three to ten days. That will obviously delay his return to the club for at least that stretch of time, and he may need another rehab stint or two after that, depending on how long he rests.

He has not yet established himself at the big league level but he has always pitched very well in the minors and was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport while with the Orioles, before coming over to the Brewers in the Corbin Burnes trade. The Brewers have dealt with several challenges in the rotation, with Wade Miley and Robert Gasser done for the year while Joe Ross is also on the 60-day IL.

The club recently acquired Aaron Civale from the Rays and Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners to bolster the rotation, slotting them in with Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea and Tobias Myers. Hall could have entered that mix and nudged someone to the bullpen or the minors, but that will now have to wait.

Some more notable injury updates from around baseball…

  • Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar’s injury woes continue. He underwent thumb surgery at the end of March, which put him out of action for about two months. He started a rehab assignment at the end of May but then dealt with a hamstring issue in the middle of June and underwent an MRI, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic on X. He was able to return to the field a few days ago but reinjured that hamstring and will now miss six to eight weeks, per Piecoro on X. Lawlar has only played 13 minor league games this year and won’t have much time to add to that, meaning 2024 will be mostly a lost season for him, an unfortunate development for a guy who’s still considered one of the top 20 prospects in the league and a big part of the future in Arizona. The Snakes have Geraldo Perdomo at short for now and Kevin Newman on the bench. Newman is a free agent after this year but they have Blaze Alexander on the 40-man and on optional assignment.
  • The Mets placed right-hander Reed Garrett on the 15-day IL this week due to elbow inflammation. Thankfully, his MRI revealed good news. As relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X, he just has some nerve inflammation. While he’s slated for a shutdown of two to four weeks, that’s surely a better outcome for him and the team than a surgery followed by a lengthy recovery period. Garrett had an ERA of 1.04 through 26 innings this year but then a 7.88 ERA in his 16 most recent frames. If he can get back on track after his shutdown period, it would be a nice bump for the Mets’ bullpen down the stretch.
  • Tigers right-hander Sawyer Gipson-Long had internal brace surgery back in April and was already slated to spend the rest of 2024 rehabbing from that. On top of that, he’s also now undergone left hip labral repair surgery. Jason Beck of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X and also passed along some thoughts from manager A.J. Hinch. It seems the club is hoping that it makes sense to address both at the same time and that the second procedure won’t add to his return timeline. “The timing works out to address this while he’s recovering from Tommy John,” Hinch said. “That’s the reason why now. It’s something that we’ve kept an eye on and he’s talked about.” He made his major league debut last year with a 2.70 ERA in four starts and will hopefully be back in the mix at some point next year.

Brewers Notes: Pitching, Hall, Wilson, Roller

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As the Brewers continue to manage significant injuries in both the rotation and bullpen, the team is continuing to look for “all pitching,” as a source on a rival club tells FanSided’s Robert Murray.  The recent acquisitions of Aaron Civale of the Rays and Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners might be just the first steps for the Brew Crew in bolstering the pitching staff for a possible postseason run, as Milwaukee holds a six-game lead in the NL Central despite dealing with a patchwork rotation.

The Civale/Keuchel moves could provide some insight into the types of deals the Brewers may pursue, as acquiring starters for upside or depth purposes seem likelier than a blockbuster trade for a clear-cut ace.  The latter type of a move would probably come at either (or both) a significant financial or prospect cost, which the Brewers might not want to pursue given both their payroll limitations or the added importance of their minor league pipeline within this more limited financial landscape.  This doesn’t mean president of baseball operations Matt Arnold won’t explore all options in improving the team, of course, as any number of unexpected deals could emerge on Milwaukee’s radar.

The extent of the Brewers’ deadline plans will also naturally hinge on how many of their own pitchers are healthy by July 30.  Some help is coming on this front soon, as DL Hall tossed three innings in a minor league rehab start yesterday, and Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (X link) writes that Hall’s next appearance is expected to be in the majors.

Hall’s last appearance in the Show came on April 20, as he was placed on the 15-day and then the 60-day injured list due to a left knee sprain that involved some MCL damage.  The left-hander is trying to pitch through the discomfort to some extent, and the Brewers have seemingly given Hall plenty of runway in the form of eight minor league rehab outings.  With a 1.84 ERA over those eight games and 14 2/3 total innings, Hall looks to be in good form, though he has only twice hit the 61-pitch plateau, and hasn’t thrown more than 62 pitches.

As Hogg notes, Hall wouldn’t necessarily be returned to the Brewers’ rotation once he is activated, as he could instead work out of the bullpen.  Hall posted a 7.71 ERA in four starts prior to his IL placement, but he had a 3.26 ERA over 19 1/3 frames working out of the Orioles’ bullpen in 2023.  While small sample sizes abound for a pitcher who has only 49 1/3 career innings as a big leaguer, Hall’s relief work last season was highlighted by a 6.2% walk rate — a significant improvement from the control problems Hall has shown throughout much of the rest of his career in both the majors and minors.

Moving Hall to the pen for now wouldn’t close the door on his starting future, of course, as Hall is still just 25 and has long been a staple of top-100 prospect lists.  The Crew could re-examine his potential as a starter next spring or even later this year as circumstances develop, but using Hall as a reliever (and perhaps a multi-inning reliever) might be a canny way of helping the team achieve more immediate success this season.

While it is a reach to say that the Brewers may soon have a surplus of rotation options, Civale’s addition has already led the club to move Bryse Wilson back to the bullpen.  Wilson’s 78 innings rank third among all Milwaukee pitchers this season, as he has started nine of his 20 appearances and worked as a bulk pitcher behind an opener in three more of those outings.

Moved into this pseudo-starter role in the wake of other injuries, Wilson’s initial results have been solid on the whole, if inconsistent.  The righty has a 4.27 ERA over his 78 frames, but a laundry list of below-average Statcast numbers reveal that Wilson has received some good fortune, such as a .261 BABIP and a .321 wOBA that is well below his .355 xwOBA.  Keeping Wilson as a swingman provides Milwaukee with added depth, and his career numbers as a reliever are better than his work as a starter, even if the bulk pitcher/reliever designations don’t provide an entirely clear picture of those stats.

In other Brewers news, the team outrighted outfielder Chris Roller to Triple-A yesterday after he cleared waivers.  Roller was designated for assignment last week, and since this was the first time Roller has been outrighted in his career, he couldn’t reject the assignment in favor of free agency.  He’ll now return to Triple-A Nashville, where he has posted a .201/.238/.321 slash line over 168 plate appearances this season.

The 27-year-old Roller is a veteran of seven pro seasons, all with the Dodgers and Guardians before the Brewers acquired him in a trade last August.  His time in Milwaukee has been highlighted by his Major League debut, as Roller played three innings as a defensive sub on May 15 and received one plate appearance in the Brewers’ 10-2 win over the Pirates.  This marked Roller’s only appearance in the Show, as the Brewers only temporarily needed some extra outfield depth and soon optioned him back to Nashville.

Brewers Sign Elieser Hernandez

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The Brewers announced the signing of right-hander Elieser Hernandez to a one-year big league deal with the team.  To create roster space, righty James Meeker was optioned to Triple-A, and left-hander DL Hall was moved from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.

The Dodgers designated Hernandez for assignment last week and then outrighted him off their 40-man roster on Thursday.  Since Hernandez has over five years of MLB service time, he had the right to reject that outright assignment to Triple-A in favor of free agency, and the right-hander indeed took that path and quickly landed with the Brew Crew.  The decision seems like a wise one, as Hernandez has now landed both a guaranteed contract and a clearer route to playing time on a team with a lot of question marks in the pitching staff.

Milwaukee’s rotation has been ravaged by injuries, leading the Brewers to build something of a patchwork around innings leaders Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea.  Bryse Wilson and Tobias Myers have stepped into regular starting roles, and the Brewers were reportedly set to promote prospect Carlos Rodriguez in time for a start on Tuesday, though it’s possible this plan might change now that Hernandez is in the fold.

There is no guarantee that Hernandez will stick in the rotation, or even if he’ll necessarily be a primary starter — it’s possible Hernandez could be paired with Rodriguez in a piggyback situation to ease the rookie’s path into the majors.  Hernandez started only one of his five appearances with Los Angeles, and had an 8.38 ERA over 9 2/3 total innings.

That small sample represented Hernandez’s first MLB work since 2022, as he spent 2023 mostly dealing with injuries, while tossing only 9 1/3 innings in the Mets’ farm system.  Best known for his time with the Marlins, Hernandez showed flashes of being a solid starter over his five seasons with Miami, but injuries again hampered his ability to stay effective and stay on the mound altogether.  The right-hander has a 5.15 ERA over 297 1/3 career Major League innings, along with a 22% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.  Opposing batters have taken Hernandez deep to the tune of a 16.5% homer rate, representing his biggest issue in run prevention.

A left knee sprain has kept Hall from pitching since April 20, and he’ll now be out until at least late June after suffering another sprain while on a rehab outing.  Hall told Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (X link) that he is trying to pitch through some damage to his MCL, and a consult with Dr. Neal ElAttrache led Hall to attempt to return a quicker return to the mound, with a fuller treatment or possibly knee surgery saved until the offseason.  The other option for Hall is to receive a PRP injection now, but that would sideline him until September.

Brewers Place DL Hall On 15-Day Injured List

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The Brewers have placed left-hander DL Hall on the 15-day injured list due to a left knee sprain.  Left-hander Jared Koenig was called up from Triple-A Nashville to take Hall’s place on the active roster.

As manager Pat Murphy told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters, Hall hurt his knee while fielding a bunt single from Michael Siani in the second inning.  The southpaw ended up lasting 3 2/3 innings and allowing four runs on five walks and five hits, though the sprain can’t be blamed for all these struggles, as Hall had already given up three walks and two hits before Siani’s single.

It remains to be seen how much time Hall could miss, as while Murphy described the strain as “mild,” the injury was still under evaluation.  However, the 15-day absence only adds to what has been a dreadful start to both Hall’s 2024 season and his Brewers tenure altogether.

Acquired from the Orioles as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package, Hall worked almost exclusively as a reliever in his two previous MLB seasons in Baltimore, but the Brewers opted to stretch him out as a starter.  The results haven’t been pretty — Hall has a 7.71 ERA, 15.5% strikeout rate, and an 11.9% walk rate across four starts and 16 1/3 innings.  Murphy told reporters yesterday that things would have to improve in order for Hall to stick in Milwaukee’s rotation, though this injury could put that decision on hold for at least a couple of weeks.

McCalvy figures that Bryse Wilson will likely be moved into the rotation in Hall’s place for the time being, both because of Wilson’s recent experience as a spot starter and due to a relative lack of other healthy options.  Hall joins Jakob Junis on the big league injured list, and top prospect Robert Gasser is on the IL at Triple-A.  Koenig has some starting experience but has worked primarily as a reliever since the start of the 2023 campaign, so it seems likelier that he’ll just replace Wilson in the long relief role.

NL Central Notes: Hall, Happ, Reds

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Left-hander DL Hall was a key piece of the return that the Brewers landed in the Corbin Burnes trade, and the club made clear upon acquiring him that Hall would be used as a member of the starting rotation despite the 25-year-old having been used almost exclusively out of the bullpen during his time in Baltimore. That experiment hasn’t gone well through Hall’s first four starts, however. Not only does Hall currently sport a 7.71 ERA with a walk rate (11.9%) that nearly matches his deflated strikeout rate (15.4%), but he’s also failed to record an out in the fifth inning in three of his four starts with the club.

Given those considerable struggles, it’s not necessarily surprising that Brewers manager Pat Murphy indicated after Hall’s start Saturday that the club might look to shift gears if Hall can’t get things on track. In conversation with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that evening, Murphy admitted that “there’s got to be adjustments made” for Hall to remain a member of the rotation, adding that the club “can’t keep letting him throw 3 1/3 and say ’that’s fine.'”

Hall is currently joined in the rotation by Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross. Should the young southpaw find himself moved to the bullpen at some point, left-hander Aaron Ashby is one candidate to step into a rotation role, though he’s dealt with struggles of his own to this point in the season. Ashby was blown up in his lone big league start this year, allowing eight runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 frames. His time in the minors hasn’t gone much better, with a 9.28 ERA in three starts. If Ashby continues to be unable to get results, the Brewers may be best served simply waiting for right-hander Jakob Junis to return from the injured list after being sidelined by a shoulder impingement for the last two weeks before considering a change in Hall’s usage.

More from the NL Central…

  • Cubs left fielder Ian Happ was removed from Friday’s game against the Marlins in the seventh inning due to what manager Craig Counsell described to reporters (including Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network) as left hamstring tightness. Counsell described the move as “precautionary” at the time, though Happ was noticeably absent from both games in the club’s doubleheader on Saturday. It’s not yet clear if Happ will ultimately require a trip to the injured list for the issue, though it makes sense for the Cubs to be cautious regarding their left fielder after he suffered a mild strain of the same hamstring during Spring Training last month. Alexander Canario filled in for Happ yesterday in left field, while Mike Tauchman and Patrick Wisdom have combined to handle right field in the aftermath of Seiya Suzuki’s oblique injury.
  • Reds right-hander Ian Gibaut has missed the entire 2024 season to this point due to discomfort in his right forearm, and the club announced yesterday that he had been returned from his rehab assignment following “renewed” discomfort in the area. Per MLB.com’s injury tracker, manager David Bell recently indicated that Gibaut could resume his rehab assignment at some point this week. Even so, it’s unwelcome news for a Reds club that leaned heavily on the right-hander last year as he pitched to a strong 3.33 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work. With Gibaut out of commission, the Reds have relied on Fernando Cruz and Emilio Pagan to set up for closer Alexis Diaz.

DL Hall Planning To Compete For Rotation Role With Brewers

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The Brewers acquired hard-throwing lefty DL Hall alongside infielder Joey Ortiz from the Orioles in last week’s Corbin Burnes blockbuster. While GM Matt Arnold was noncommittal about Hall’s role in a chat with reporters in the immediate aftermath of the trade, the 25-year-old indicated the organization views him as a starting pitcher.

“When they called me, they asked me how my training had been going, what I was preparing for. Luckily, I was preparing to be a starter. They want me to be a starter,” Hall said in an appearance on Foul Territory yesterday afternoon (YouTube link).

That the Brewers still view Hall as a rotation fit isn’t surprising. If Milwaukee felt the 6’2″ southpaw was unlikely to stick as a starter, they might not have made him one of two key pieces in a return for their ace. That’s not a unanimous opinion among evaluators, however. Some scouting reports on Hall indicate he’s a better fit for the bullpen because of well below-average control.

Over parts of six seasons in the minors, Hall has walked 13.4% of opposing hitters. He handed out free passes at a similarly concerning 13.8% clip over 49 innings for Triple-A Norfolk a year ago. Hall worked in an abbreviated starting capacity early in the Triple-A season, typically going four to five innings in an appearance. He pitched in a traditional single-inning relief role there late in the year, aligning with his usage at the MLB level.

Other than a 3 2/3-inning start in his major league debut in August 2022, Hall has pitched exclusively as a reliever in the majors. He has a 4.36 ERA in 29 appearances, striking out 29% of batters faced. The former first-round pick has shown better control in that limited big league sample, walking a league average 7.6% of his opponents.

Expecting Hall to maintain a sub-8% walk rate over a full season as a starter is likely too optimistic given his minor league numbers. He will very likely need to cut his walks from the minor league levels if he’s to stick as a starter. Only two MLB pitchers logged at least 100 innings while walking more than 13% of opponents a year ago.

One of them, Blake Snell, won the Cy Young, so it’s not impossible to thrive with this kind of scattershot control. It requires absolutely dominating hitters when the pitcher is around the strike zone, though, with Snell fanning over 31% of opponents and holding batters to a pitiful .180 average. (The other pitcher with 100+ innings and a walk rate above 13% was Michael Kopech, who had a 5.43 ERA.) Hall is credited by prospect evaluators with as many as four plus or better pitches. He has the potential to overpower opponents, but he’d have to walk a very tight rope if he doesn’t get the free passes in check.

It’s worth noting that Hall’s comments about competing for a rotation spot came before Milwaukee agreed to a $7MM deal with free agent righty Jakob Junis last night. Even with Junis expected to take a season-opening rotation spot, it’s unlikely Milwaukee’s usage plans for Hall are any different. The Brewers still have one or two jobs up for grabs behind Freddy Peralta, Junis, and Wade Miley. Hall joins righties Colin Rea and Joe Ross and southpaws Aaron Ashby and Robert Gasser in that competition. Prospects Carlos Rodriguez and Jacob Misiorowski could pitch their way into the mix during the season.

Hall still has one option year remaining. The Brewers can move him between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville for another season if he doesn’t stake a claim to a permanent rotation role on Opening Day.

Orioles Notes: Burnes, Cease, Hicks

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The Orioles completed one of the offseason’s biggest trades in landing Corbin Burnes from the Brewers earlier this week, and it was a move that GM Mike Elias said the organization had been “talking about…since when the World Series ended.” It was heavily expected that the O’s would be looking for significant rotation help during the winter, and Elias shared some details on the search when speaking with reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and MLB.com’s Jake Rill) on a conference call in the aftermath of the trade.

“Corbin Burnes is exactly what we needed.  We were in a dogged pursuit of him the entire offseason,” Elias said.  “Obviously, there were other starting pitchers who we pursued, but it’s harder to have somebody higher than Corbin Burnes on your wish list.  It’s a tremendous impact.”

Milwaukee’s side of the deal involved two big league-ready young players (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall) with top-100 prospect pedigrees, as well as the Orioles’ Competitive Balance Round draft pick (currently 34th overall in the 2024 draft order).  It was a noteworthy amount to give up even for a team as rich in minor league depth as the O’s, but Elias felt it was worth the plunge.

“We’re giving up a lot of long-term talent and also a couple of players that were going to contribute to the 2024 Orioles,” Elias said.  “So I mean, this is a risky move, but it lined up for both sides.  We weren’t going to force it necessarily, but our wish list was a rotation upgrade and I certainly think that the Cy Young winner and with his body of work qualifies as that. We couldn’t have found a better upgrade and now we just have to go play the games.”

While the Orioles’ offer was enough to sway the Brewers, it apparently wasn’t enough to get the White Sox to move Dylan Cease, another pitcher known to be on Baltimore’s list of potential targets.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the O’s “offered basically the same package” to White Sox, as well as an unknown additional player.  The larger size of the offer probably reflects the fact that Cease is arbitration-controlled through the 2025 season while Burnes is only controlled through 2024, yet it still wasn’t enough to meet Chicago’s asking price for Cease’s services.

Past reports have suggested that the Sox have a particular interest in Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, among many of Baltimore’s top prospects.  It can be assumed that none of these blue-chippers weren’t the mystery fourth part of the Orioles’ offer to Chicago, so speculatively, it could be that the White Sox asked for one of the trio as the top position-player piece instead of Ortiz.  Considering that the Sox have reportedly been looking for additional pitching in other Cease-related trade talks with the Mariners and Reds, it could also be that the White Sox wanted a better pitcher included than Hall, or perhaps a pitcher as the fourth element if the Orioles had offered a position player.

These talks are again indicative of the very large price tag that the White Sox are demanding for Cease, which isn’t really surprising given how he is their biggest trade asset apart from Luis Robert.  It also understandable why the Orioles ultimately pivoted from these talks with Chicago to closing the deal on Burnes, as Burnes provides a higher ceiling as a more consistent ace-level pitcher even if he comes with one less year of control than Cease.

Obviously some of this discussion is just conjecture since we don’t know exactly what the Orioles put on the table for Cease, yet it also speaks to the interesting juggling act Elias has been facing in determining how to put the best “final touch” on the AL East-winning roster.  It can be assumed that pretty much every rival team has been asking about the top tier of names in Baltimore’s farm system in any trade talks, so Elias technically has the minor league depth to complete just about any deal, he naturally isn’t going to deplete that depth for just any pitcher.

Speaking of Kjerstad and Cowser, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either youngster play big roles in whatever success awaits the 2024 Orioles, though they’re part of a crowded outfield, first base, and DH picture that also includes Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and even more up-and-coming prospects in Coby Mayo and Kyle Stowers, among others.  Even with all these options on hand, Nightengale reports that the O’s still had interest in bringing back Aaron Hicks before the veteran outfielder signed with the Angels earlier this week.

After an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees, Hicks revived his career after joining the Orioles last season, hitting .275/.381/.425 over 236 PA and acting as a veteran leader within the young clubhouse.  Since the Yankees are still covering Hicks’ previous contract through the 2025 season, the outfielder was available on only a minimum MLB salary to any team this winter, giving him presumably a pretty wide range of suitors.

Though the Orioles are in a better position to contend than the Angels in 2024, it could be that Hicks simply felt he wouldn’t get as much playing time in Baltimore than he would in Los Angeles.  Though the Angels have a fair amount of outfield options themselves, Mike Trout’s injury history and the unproven big league track records of Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell leave more room for Hicks to become a lineup regular.

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

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The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.

There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.

Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.

Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.

Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.

Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).

That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.

While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.

It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.

In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.

Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.

That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.

Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.

In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.

Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.

Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.

His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.

That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.

It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.

Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.

GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.

Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).

Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Notes: Trade Market, Urias, Zimmermann, Akin, Hall

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Orioles fans have grown increasingly frustrated with a listless offseason on the heels of last year’s division title and quick playoff exit. The O’s entered the offseason with a wide-open payroll outlook and deep farm system, ostensibly setting the stage for either a major free-agent pickup and/or a splashy trade to address the starting pitching. Neither has transpired to this point, although general manager Mike Elias insists it’s not due to a lack of effort on his behalf. The Orioles are “probably being as aggressive as any team out there” on the trade market, Elias told reporters over the weekend (link via Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner).

Options on the trade market this offseason have been few and far between — particularly if, as one would expect, the O’s are reluctant to part with their glut of top-ranked, near-MLB-ready infield and outfield prospects. Dylan Cease has long been connected to the O’s, but many have begun to express doubt that anyone will meet the White Sox’ asking price before the offseason is up. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has spoken openly about his aversion to trading young starters like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. The Marlins are at least listening on a handful of starters (Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera among them), but the ask figures to be similarly steep there, as each has at least three seasons of control remaining.

The Orioles, meanwhile, are rife with young big league-caliber talents. Gunnar Henderson is locked in on the left side of the infield — likely as the long-term third baseman. Jackson Holliday, the former No. 1 overall pick who’s currently ranked as baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, could debut as the team’s long-term shortstop this year at just 20 years old. Middle infielders Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby and Joey Ortiz have all been ranked among the game’s 100 best prospects within the past year. Ditto corner infielder Coby Mayo, who could be pushed across the diamond to first base, where the Orioles also have Ryan Mountcastle and former No. 2 overall pick Heston Kjerstad as options. Kjerstad can also play the outfield corners, while still yet another top prospect, outfielder Colton Cowser, is a deft center fielder.

Baltimore’s veritable embarrassment of riches on the prospect front has yet to lead to a trade, however. Fans might quibble with whether Elias is truly being as aggressive as he indicates, based on that lack of a move, but the top-ranking O’s baseball ops exec also exercised caution on the trade front.

“You can look back and teams make aggressive trades, and it can really set the franchise back if the guy shows up and he gets hurt, or if you trade guys and you miss out on their long careers,” Elias said, noting that there are just such examples in Orioles history.

Elias didn’t mention any specific examples, though as with any franchise, they’ve had their share of “ones who got away” (my words, not his). Eduardo Rodriguez and Jake Arrieta come to mind as one such pair (under prior leadership, before Elias was hired), while the Orioles’ acquisition of Adam Jones in exchange for Erik Bedard (also under the former front office regime) is perhaps the prime example of Baltimore being on the more favorable side of that proverbial coin.

Of course, the enviable stock of position-player depth the Orioles have cultivated under Elias could also be a catalyst for smaller-scale trades. The team might balk at the notion of trading someone of Westburg’s ilk, but the sheer volume of MLB-ready infielders could make current bench options like Ramon Urias available. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko suggested as much on Monday, noting that a roster including each of Urias, Ortiz and Holliday would have some redundancy and could lead to Urias being squeezed out — though that scenario is framed in mostly speculative fashion. There’s no indication the Orioles are shopping Urias, but it stands to reason that other infield-needy clubs would have interest.

The 29-year-old Urias, who’s earning $2.1MM in 2024 and is under club control through 2026, has given the Orioles above-average offense and solid defense for much of the past three seasons. He’s a career .264/.330/.404 hitter (107 wRC+) who can handle any of second base, shortstop or third base.

Urias had plus defensive grades at the hot corner, in 2022 in particular, but has broadly rated as a capable defender at any of the three spots. The O’s also gave him 63 innings at first base in 2023. Though he bats right-handed, Urias has far better career numbers against righties (.278/.342/.416) than lefties (.237/.306/.380). That’s not ideal for a team seeking a righty bat to pair with a lefty around the infield, but a club that’s just looking for general infield help overall could well see its interest piqued by an affordable and versatile option like Urias. He alone wouldn’t fetch the Orioles the rotation upgrade they seek, but he could either be dealt as part of a package or could perhaps simply net the O’s some modest help for the farm system to help replenish depth after surrendering some prospects in a larger-scale deal.

On the depth front, the O’s did get some good news in recent weeks. Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann tells MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski that he’s in Florida for early workouts and expects to be a “full go” when spring training opens. Zimmermann underwent core muscle surgery in mid-October. He pitched to a 4.42 ERA in 21 Triple-A starts last season and has a lifetime 4.15 ERA in 229 2/3 innings at that level. He’s struggled to a 5.57 mark in 158 1/3 big league frames, but Zimmermann has a minor league option remaining and gives the O’s some experienced depth if injuries create an opening in the rotation.

Similarly, reliever Keegan Akin told Melewski and others that he’s “right on track” for spring training after missing the better part of three months last summer due to back troubles. Akin attempted to come back multiple times but experienced continued back issues each time. He’s since had the time to rest and rehab his way to full strength. The southpaw clearly wasn’t right in ’23, pitching to a 6.85 ERA in 23 1/3 innings, but he was a key bullpen member in 2022 when he piled up 81 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 49.3% ground-ball rate.

Assuming he’s healthy, Akin will give the O’s yet another southpaw option in the ’pen. Danny Coulombe and Cionel Perez are locked into spots after each avoided arbitration over the past week, and 25-year-old DL Hall seems likely to join them — if the Orioles don’t give him another look in the rotation. That decision could hinge on any future acquisitions; Elias said on Friday that the Orioles still view Hall as a starter in the long-term but was less clear about the southpaw’s role in the shorter term (X link via Kostka). Hall, a 2017 first-rounder and former top prospect, pitched to a 3.26 ERA with excellent strikeout and walk rates in 19 1/3 innings out of the bullpen in 2023.

Mike Elias Discusses Upcoming Orioles Offseason

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Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters this afternoon in an end-of-season press conference on the heels of the club being swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers on Tuesday. As relayed by reporters (including Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and Danielle Allentuck of The Baltimore Banner), Elias discussed an array of topics during the presser, including the club’s plans for the offseason and the upcoming 2024 campaign.

Following a 101-win campaign during which the club spent just $66MM on player payroll per RosterResource, Elias notably was noncommittal when asked whether or not the club planned to increase payroll this offseason. The Orioles GM simply noted that it’s still “day one” of Baltimore’s offseason, rather than providing a concrete answer about the club’s payroll expectations. Despite Elias demurring regarding the club’s 2024 payroll, he did note that the club has missed out on some preferred free agent and trade targets this year, and that “those pursuits will be on the menu again” this offseason.

Though Elias wouldn’t commit to increasing payroll next year, it’s worth noting that it would be difficult for the club to avoid increasing it’s payroll at least somewhat. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the club’s sixteen arbitration-eligible players to command a combined $55MM in salary for the 2024 season. That would leave the Orioles just $11MM in salary to pay existing commitments to Felix Bautista and James McCann and round out the rest of the club’s roster, which will see both second baseman Adam Frazier and right-hander Kyle Gibson head back to free agency after signing one-year deals with the club this past offseason.

While Elias did not reveal the club’s contract situations regarding either himself or manager Brandon Hyde, he confirmed both of them would return to the club for the 2024 campaign in their current roles. Elias spoke glowingly of Hyde during the presser, saying that the 50-year-old skipper “had an unbelievable season” in 2023 and that he expects Hyde to follow up his runner-up finish in AL Manager of the Year voting last season with a win this year.

The Orioles also offered a handful of updates regarding their players during the presser. Left-hander John Means missed most of the 2023 campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery before returning in September with a strong 2.66 ERA across four starts. Despite that performance, Means was left off the club’s ALDS roster due to elbow soreness, an ominous sign for an player coming off UCL surgery. Fortunately for both Means and the Orioles, the issue appears to have been very minor. Elias told reporters that Means is in “good shape” and should be fully ready for Spring Training come February. Means figures to factor into a 2024 rotation mix that also seems likely to feature Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, and Dean Kremer.

One other potential entrant into the club’s 2024 rotation mix is left-hander DL Hall. A consensus top-100 prospect entering the season even after his uneven big league debut in 2022, Hall has been a starter for 81 of his 96 career appearances in the minors despite being used primarily out of the bullpen in the big leagues. He was impressive in 19 1/3 innings of relief this year at the big league level, with a 3.26 ERA and 3.00 FIP, though he made just one appearance that lasted longer than two innings.

While Hyde praised Hall’s work with the club during the regular season last month out of the bullpen, he also noted that the club hasn’t discussed what his role next year will be, though Hyde emphasized that Hall will play a significant part in the club’s plans for 2024 regardless of his role. If Hall doesn’t wind up stretched back out for a shot at a rotation job in Spring Training, he could be given the opportunity to work as a high-leverage relief arm aside Yennier Cano in the absence of Bautista, who acted as the club’s main closer this year before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps most excitingly for Orioles fans, Elias did not push back against suggestions that top prospect Jackson Holliday could be in play for the big league roster next spring.

“I think when you are 19 and then you’re 20, that’s one year but that’s a lot of aging and physical development,” Elias said of Holiday, who turns 20 in December. “I can’t wait to see what he looks like in spring training.”

Holliday certainly made an impact during his first full professional season, slashing .323/.442/.499 with a 17.4% walk rate against a 20.3% strikeout rate in 581 trips to the plate across four levels of the minor leagues. That being said, Holliday’s experience at Triple-A didn’t go quite as smoothly as his overall numbers might suggest. In 91 plate appearances at the highest level of the minor leagues, the youngster slashed .267/.396/.400, though he did maintain his impressive walk (17.6%) and strikeout (18.9%) rates from the lower levels of the minors.

If Holliday manages to make the club’s Opening Day roster, Baltimore would be faced with a serious infield logjam. Both Holliday and Gunnar Henderson would presumably be in line for regular starts, and with first base likely dominated by some combination of Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn the club would have just one infield spot to dedicate to a group that includes Ramon Urias, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo, and Terrin Vavra, not to mention additional youngsters like Coby Mayo.

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