Trade/FA Rumblings: Arenado, Keuchel, Cards, Twins, Marlins, Mets, Correa
The Rockies are reportedly willing to listen to offers for their franchise player, third baseman Nolan Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich all but confirmed that’s the case, Nick Groke of The Athletic relays (subscription link).
“Look, this is the time of year where those conversations happen,” Bridich said. “This is the time of year where we at least listen to teams and go, ‘OK, well, should we try to investigate and put something together.’ We have people to do those sorts of things. I can’t sit here and say, ‘No, never, ever.’ Some of this stuff started back at the trade deadline and it’s kind of ongoing.”
Bridich is still of the opinion the Rockies, as presently constructed, can push for a championship in 2020, Groke notes. Arenado, of course, plays an irreplaceable role in that belief. However, with so few above-average third basemen currently available (Josh Donaldson‘s a free agent and Kris Bryant may end up on the move via trade), teams could come calling with appealing offers if the Rockies place Arenado on the block. Arenado has full no-trade rights as part of the seven-year, $234MM extension Colorado signed him to last offseason, though he has expressed frustration regarding the Rockies’ nightmarish 2019. So, if a contender tries to acquire him, perhaps the 28-year-old will be open to leaving the Rockies. Regardless of whether a trade comes together, Arenado has the ability to opt out of his contract after 2021.
Here are more rumblings from around the game…
- A report earlier this week suggested the Cardinals haven’t shown much recent interest in Dallas Keuchel, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the club’s “intrigued” by the free-agent left-hander. The Cardinals were also among the teams in on Keuchel last season before he signed a one-year, $13MM contract with the Braves in June, thereby ending a shockingly long stay on the market. The soon-to-be 32-year-old didn’t have a great few months in Atlanta, but he should nonetheless do better in free agency this time. MLBTR predicts he’ll sign a three-year, $39MM pact.
- At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.
- Although the possibility of the Mets acquiring Astros star shortstop Carlos Correa has been branded as more fantasy than reality, the teams did have “active” talks from November up to this week, Andy Martino of SNY reports. However, those discussions have “fizzled,” per Martino. For what it’s worth, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has told Correa not to worry about a trade. Barring something unforeseen, it appears Amed Rosario will continue as New York’s starting shortstop in 2020.
Marlins Notes: Rotation, Smith
The Miami Marlins haven’t had a lot to feel good about in recent seasons, but the rebuild is beginning to bear fruit. The Marlins rotation has been a talking point since around the All-Star break of 2019, and though they’re not yet a fearsome unit, they’re worth keeping an eye on. They finished the year 16th in the majors by ERA, 20th by FIP, 14th in HR/9, and 22nd by fWAR. They didn’t generate a lot of groundballs, but that’s playing to strength given their ballpark. The biggest area of improvement looking ahead to next season will be control, as they finished second-to-last with 3.50 BB/9. Still, given where the franchise has been in recent seasons, any unit climbing from the cellar is noteworthy.
That said, the first wave of talent often becomes the last wave of prospect-gathering trade bait. At least for the time being, however, the Marlins aren’t overeager to move their starting pitching. Still, that doesn’t stop teams from asking, particularly about Caleb Smith, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Smith, 28, is the veteran at the front of their young group, and his trade value remains high due to having just over two years of service time. He struggled with the long ball in 2019, but it was an overall successful campaign: 10-11, 28 starts, 4.52 ERA/5.11 FIP, 153 1/3 innings. Smith definitely made strides in securing his spot as a major leaguer, though it would not be surprising were the Marlins to pivot and decide to move him.
Regardless, President of Baseball Ops Michael Hill suggested the Marlins are secure in their starting options heading into 2020, and they’re unlikely to make a major acquisition in that regard, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The current group includes Smith, 2019 All-Star Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jordan Yamamoto, Jose Urena, Elieser Hernandez, and Robert Dugger. Alcantara and Smith are probably the only two with their rotation spots guaranteed. The rest of the group should have no trouble conjuring a sense of urgency, as top prospect Sixto Sanchez finished the year in Double-A, as did Edward Cabrera, perhaps their most promising arm after Sanchez.
The Marlins felt secure enough in this group (and the intriguing group of prospects coming behind them) that they dealt Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for young shortstop Jazz Chisholm. The position player side of the ball should soon see an influx of intriguing young talent get their chance in the big leagues. Along with Chisholm, the Marlins added JJ Bleday with the 4th overall pick in the draft and acquired another top prospect in Jesus Sanchez from the Rays. Chishold and Sanchez are likely to reach the majors in 2020, along with centefielder Monte Harrison. Chisholm, Sanzhez, and Harrison are the Marlins #3, 4 and 5 ranked prospect by MLB.com. On both sides of the ball, patience will carry the day for now in Miami. Given the gusto with which their division mates have approached the offseason, Miami is all but assured to finish 2020 in the NL East cellar for the third consecutive season.
2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update
At this point of the season, it’s reasonable to expect the remaining Rule 5 players who are on big league rosters to hold those spots for the remainder of the season. That doesn’t mean that each has necessarily impressed to the point where he’s viewed as a viable long-term option, but with rosters set to expand in a couple of weeks and this much time already invested in each player, the remaining prospects who are clinging to eligibility have likely secured themselves a look in 2019 — even if it means opening the season in the minors.
When I last checked in on this year’s Rule 5-ers back in June, there were nine players either on active MLB rosters or on the big league disabled list, with the rest of this year’s class having been returned to their original organizations. That number hasn’t changed, though the complexion of the list is a bit different, and there have been some encouraging strides among the bunch. Here’s how the class looks at present:
Active Big Leaguers
- Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes still isn’t hitting much, but the Tigers have given him much more time in the outfield as the season wears on. The 23-year-old played just nine complete games through the end of June, but since July 1, he’s logged 22 full games of action in addition to numerous partial appearances where he’s either been pinch-hit for or entered the game as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. Reyes is hitting just .244/.279/.256 through 86 PAs in July and August, so he’s not impressing at the plate in spite of the recent uptick in playing time. He is 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts and has registered solid defensive marks in the outfield. It still seems likely that he’ll be ticketed for regular work in Triple-A next season once he can be optioned.
- Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs): As the Kansas City Star’s Maria Torres noted over the weekend, Keller has been a rare bright spot in a largely abysmal season for the Royals. Keller posted underwhelming numbers in Double-A last season and skipped Triple-A entirely, but the Royals deserve some credit for nabbing him anyway last December. In 100 1/3 innings this year, Keller has posted a terrific 3.32 ERA. And while his 6.0 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 marks are underwhelming, he’s notched a strong 54.8 percent ground-ball rate. It remains to be seen if Keller can sustain his minuscule 0.45 HR/9 rate, though he’s never averaged even a homer per nine frames in the minors. Fielding-independent pitching metrics are fairly spread out on him, due in no small part to that low homer rate, but if he can settle in even as a pitcher capable of delivering an ERA in the low 4.00s over a season’s worth of starts, that’d make him a very successful pick.
- Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Kansas City hasn’t been as successful with Smith, whose ERA sits at an ugly 6.54 through 64 2/3 innings — mostly out of the bullpen. He’s averaged 8.6 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9, and in addition to issuing too many walks, he’s been far too homer-prone (1.95 HR/9). More than 18 percent of the fly-balls against Smith have left the yard — a troubling trend for a pitcher with just a 39.4 percent ground-ball rate. Smith barely pitched from 2014-17 due to injuries, including Tommy John surgery, so the Royals may not want to give up on him in spite of the poor results. At this point, they’ve come far enough along that it could make sense to keep him around and see how he fares in the upper minors next season. He’ll be 29 in April, but he has minor league options remaining.
- Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Tocci has been the most seldom-used player in the Majors, functioning almost exclusively as a defensive replacement for much of the season. He’s appeared in 51 games and totaled just 103 plate appearances, but the Rangers have given him a slight increase in playing time in August. This month, he’s started nine games and shown a bit of promise in that tiny sample, hitting .300/.323/.367 in 33 plate appearances — albeit with nine punchouts and just one walk. Tocci is hitting .207/.255/.250 overall, though, and appears ticketed for minor league work in 2019 even if his glove has been solid in limited work to date.
- Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez, who turned 23 back in May, made the jump from High-A to the Majors and, unsurprisingly, has posted less-than-stellar results. He’s tossed 56 2/3 innings for Miami, including five starts, while working to a 5.08 ERA with 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.27 HR/9 and an extremely low 26.3 percent ground-ball rate. Some struggles were to be expected given the considerable jump he faced, however, and it’d be fair to say he’s at least held his own, given that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A. He should survive the season with the rebuilding Marlins, and he’ll likely be ticketed for upper-minors work in 2019.
- Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): Graves was on the DL back in June, having missed the first two-plus months of the season with an oblique injury. Since making his big league debut, he’s posted a 6.23 ERA with 10 strikeouts against seven walks (two intentional) and three hit batters in 17 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old has primarily been a starter in the minors but has been used out of the bullpen in Miami to this point. He’s displayed good ground-ball tendencies thus far (53.6 percent) and has yet to allow a homer. Though he missed notable time this year, Graves was activated early enough that he’ll accrue the requisite 90 days on the active roster to shed his Rule 5 status this season — provided he doesn’t incur an injury before rosters expand.
On the Major League Disabled List
- Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
- Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo is the last of three Orioles picks from the 2017 Rule 5 Draft remaining on the big league roster, but he’s been on the DL since June 11 due to an elbow sprain. When he was active, he showed plenty of ability to miss bats (13.9 percent swinging-strike rate, 9.3 K/9) but also averaged 5.8 walks and a staggering 2.89 homers per nine innings pitched. It’s not clear if he’ll return this season, but if he doesn’t, he’ll retain his Rule 5 eligibility into 2019. The Orioles won’t be able to option him until he spends 90 days on the active MLB roster, and he’s a bit more than two weeks shy of that right now.
- Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The flame-throwing Burdi missed nearly all of 2016 due to injury and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, but he’s finally on the comeback trail in a new organization. Pittsburgh sent the former Louisville standout on a rehab assignment earlier this month, and he’s pitched seven innings with an 11-to-4 K/BB ratio across three levels so far. He’s yielded five earned runs in that time, though the Bucs likely aren’t focusing heavily on bottom-line results at this point of his recovery. Burdi will have to carry over his Rule 5 eligibility into the 2019 season if the Pirates wish to retain him, but he’s a highly intriguing bullpen piece who could be worth the investment. Burdi’s heater received 80 grades on the 20-80 scale prior to surgery, and he’s been touted as a potential big league closer since his college days.
Returned to Original Organization
- Anyelo Gomez, RHP: Returned to Yankees by the Braves
- Nestor Cortes Jr., LHP: Returned to Yankees by the Orioles
- Jordan Milbrath, RHP: Returned to Indians by the Pirates
- Mike Ford, 1B: Returned to Yankees by the Mariners
- Anthony Gose, LHP: Returned to Rangers by the Astros
- Jose Mesa Jr., RHP: Returned to Yankees by the Orioles
- Tyler Kinley, RHP: Returned to Marlins by the Twins
- Luke Bard, RHP: Returned to Twins by the Angels
2017-18 Rule 5 Draft Update
When we last checked in on this year’s crop of Rule 5 players, there were a combined 11 players — six on active rosters and five on the Major League disabled list — still with their new organizations. That number has fallen to nine, with six players (albeit a different mix) still active in the Majors, plus another three hanging around on the DL. The number could shrink again in the near future, as several of the remaining Rule 5-ers are seldom used pieces, and at least two teams will soon likely have to make a call.
Active Big Leaguers
- Victor Reyes, OF, Tigers (from D-backs): Reyes has received only 38 plate appearances since our last Rule 5 roundup, hitting .211/.211/.342 in that span. He’s picked up a pair of triples and a double, his first extra-base hits in the Majors, but is hitting just .196/.196/.304 on the season as a whole. The Tigers barely use Reyes, outside of pinch-running and late-game defensive switches, but the longer they commit to hanging onto him, the less likely it becomes that they return him to Arizona. At this point, they’ve played more than a third of the season with an effective 24-man roster, so they seem likely to see this through.
- Brad Keller, RHP, Royals (from D-backs, via trade w/ Reds): The 22-year-old Keller hasn’t picked up many strikeouts (5.9 K/9) and hasn’t displayed elite control (3.3 BB/9), but he’s sporting a 57.9 percent ground-ball rate in 35 innings for Kansas City — including three starts. He boasts a 2.31 ERA thus far in 2018, though his 0.26 HR/9 mark and 82.2 percent strand rate seem poised to regress. Nonetheless, he’s performed well enough to date that there’s no reason for the Royals to consider cutting ties.
- Burch Smith, RHP, Royals (from Rays, via trade w/ Mets): Smith, on the other hand, is a more complicated case for GM Dayton Moore and his staff. The 28-year-old is currently lugging a 6.49 ERA to the mound with him after surrendering 10 runs in his past 7 1/3 innings. Smith has racked up 28 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings, but he’s also issued 18 walks and hit two batters. Beyond that, seven of the 26 hits he’s allowed with Kansas City have cleared the fence.
- Pedro Araujo, RHP, Orioles (from Cubs): Araujo was one of four players in Spring Training with the Orioles who came with Rule 5 status, but he’s the last to remain on their MLB roster. (Anthony Santander, who missed much of last season due to injury, fulfilled his Rule 5 requirements last monthM and was optioned to Triple-A.) Araujo was torched for four runs last night, including a pair of homers, and he now has a 7.71 ERA in 28 innings with the O’s. That’s not exactly a surprise considering the fact that he skipped both Double-A and Triple-A, and to his credit, Araujo has punched out 29 hitters in his 28 frames (albeit against 18 walks and two hit batters). Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote this morning that Araujo’s roster spot could be in jeopardy with Zach Britton coming off the disabled list.
- Carlos Tocci, OF, Rangers (from Phillies, via trade w/ White Sox): Texas stashed Tocci, 22, on the disabled list with a hip contusion for more than a month and rode his rehabilitation window as long as possible. Since being activated on June 2, Tocci hasn’t logged a single plate appearance. The Rangers’ season looks to be lost, so they may as well hang onto Tocci if they believe he has any shot at a future in the organization. He’s just 2-for-25 in 14 games this season and has struggled in Triple-A, but Tocci was productive for the Phillies’ Double-A club last season and hit well in Double-A during last month’s rehab assignment, too.
- Elieser Hernandez, RHP, Marlins (from Astros): Hernandez has allowed just 10 earned runs through 23 innings for a 3.91 ERA, but he’s also picked up just 10 strikeouts and yielded five homers. Hernandez, 23, has shown strong control (four walks), but he looks quite hittable through his brief run with Miami so far. As with each team listed in this section, though, they can certainly afford to hang onto him.
On the Disabled List
- Julian Fernandez, RHP, Giants (from Rockies): Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery back in April. He’ll accrue MLB service time while spending the season on the 60-day disabled list and will retain his Rule 5 status heading into 2019, if the Giants wish to hang onto him all offseason.
- Nick Burdi, RHP, Pirates (from Twins via trade w/ Phillies): The Pirates picked up Burdi knowing he’d miss much of the 2018 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he’s yet to throw in the minors. That said, Burdi is a former supplemental-round pick who was selected toward the top of the draft thanks to an 80-grade heater that regularly touches triple digits. If he can get healthy enough to pitch this season, the Bucs will have a free look at a tantalizing power arm.
- Brett Graves, RHP, Marlins (from Athletics): The Marlins placed Graves on the 60-day disabled list with an oblique strain back on Opening Day, so he’s yet to pitch in the Majors. He has, however, recovered to the point where he’s begun pitching on a minor league rehab assignment. The results haven’t been pretty. Graves has a 6.23 ERA with a 16-to-7 K/BB ratio and four hit batters in 17 1/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s also nearing the end of his 30-day rehab window. His first rehab appearance came back on May 17, so the Marlins have less than a week to determine whether to bring Graves up to the Majors or run him through waivers and offer him back to Oakland.
Returned to Original Organization
- Anyelo Gomez, RHP: Returned to Yankees by the Braves
- Nestor Cortes Jr., LHP: Returned to Yankees by the Orioles
- Jordan Milbrath, RHP: Returned to Indians by the Pirates
- Mike Ford, 1B: Returned to Yankees by the Mariners
- Anthony Gose, LHP: Returned to Rangers by the Astros
- Jose Mesa Jr., RHP: Returned to Yankees by the Orioles
- Tyler Kinley, RHP: Returned to Marlins by the Twins
- Luke Bard, RHP: Returned to Twins by the Angels