Latest On Juan Soto
Recent reporting on the trade talks between the Padres and Yankees regarding superstar outfielder Juan Soto have indicated that the sides have hit an impasse in their trade discussions. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this morning that the sides haven’t talked since San Diego requested the previously-reported multi-player package centered round right-handers Drew Thorpe and Michael King, though The Athletic’s Brandon Kuty suggests that discussions between the sides are expected to reignite during the Winter Meetings this week.
Kuty goes on to discuss the current state of discussions between the sides, with a few noteworthy updates to past reporting. While San Diego’s proposal was previously believed to be a six- or seven-player package centered around King and Thorpe plus salary relief in exchange for Soto and Trent Grisham, Kuty suggests that the Padres proposed an eight-for-two swap with right-handers Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez all included in addition to King and Thorpe. The other three players in San Diego’s proposal are not known, though Kuty suggests that top prospects Oswald Peraza and Everson Pereira both are “figured to be on the table” in discussions.
The mention of Pereira as a potential piece in a Soto is especially noteworthy as past reporting has indicated that the 22-year-old has not been part of discussions between the sides. The young outfielder has emerged as a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport after slashing .300/.373/.548 in 81 games split between Double-A and Triple-A this season, though he struggled in a 27-game cup of coffee with an anemic .151/.233/.194 slash line in 103 big league plate appearances down the stretch. The inclusion of Pereira as a big-league ready outfield option could make plenty of sense for San Diego, particularly if the club parts with both Soto and Grisham in a deal.
While the specifics of reports on the Padres’ requested return package have conflicted, it’s clear that San Diego is hoping to receive a hefty return with a focus on MLB-ready pitching. What’s more, there’s a clear consensus between reports that the Yankees are particularly hesitant to include King and Thorpe in a package for Soto. Despite the gap between the sides in trade discussions, Kuty notes that restarting talks makes plenty of sense for both sides. The impetus behind a Soto deal for San Diego is the club’s desire to cut payroll, and Soto’s projected $33MM salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) limits the number of teams that could realistically fit a deal for Soto into their budget. Meanwhile, Kuty notes that the Yankees are facing considerable pressure to improve after missing the playoffs with an 82-80 2023 campaign.
While Kuty notes that Cody Bellinger is another star-caliber lefty outfielder who the Yankees have interest in, no outfield addition is appealing to the club as Soto. Likewise, Kuty suggests that the Blue Jays represent a potential suitor for Soto if the Padres can’t get a deal done with New York. It’s a suggestion further backed up by SNY’s Andy Martino, who describes Toronto as a “real contender” for Soto, with Heyman adding that right-hander Alek Manoah has come up in discussions between San Diego and Toronto. That said, Martino suggests that the Jays are believed to prefer to wait on a Soto deal until they know whether or not they’ll be successful in their bid for superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani.
Kuty suggests that waiting for Ohtani to make a decision could be a double-edged sword for the Padres. While another superstar-caliber left-handed slugger coming off the board could raise the pressure on interested clubs to acquire Soto, the Padres are likely to attempt to use the savings from a Soto deal to explore the free agent starting pitching market, and waiting to move Soto could leave San Diego with less options on that front. While the free agent market has largely moved slowly to this point in the offseason, the top end of the rotation market has been something of an exception to that rule with Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray having already signed on in Philadelphia and St. Louis, respectively.
Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks
The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.
All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.
It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.
But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.
Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players: C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.
Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.
It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.
As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.
Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.
Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.
It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.
Yankees Announce Several Roster Moves
The Yankees announced Tuesday that they’ve reinstated Carlos Rodon from the 15-day injured list, recalled infielder Oswald Peraza and outfield prospect Everson Pereira from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, placed outfielder Billy McKinney on the 10-day injured list due to back spasms, and designated outfielder Greg Allen for assignment. The recalls of Peraza and Pereira were reported on yesterday.
Allen, 30, will lose his spot on the active and 40-man rosters to clear the way for Pereira to enter the outfield mix in the Bronx. Allen is out of minor league options, so he can’t be sent down without first clearing waivers. He appeared in 22 games for the Yankees since returning to the organization but received just 28 plate appearances in that time (during which he went 5-for-23 with a pair of walks and 10 strikeouts). Allen has been used primarily as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement late in games.
That’s a role with which Allen has become increasingly familiar over the years. The fleet-footed switch-hitter hasn’t topped 134 plate appearances in a big league season since 2019 and has never tallied 300 trips to the plate in a given season. Allen is a career .231/.300/.340 hitter with 11 home runs and a 48-for-57 showing in stolen bases (84%) at the MLB level. He’s played all three outfield spots extensively and draws above-average marks at each, per Statcast. Defensive Runs Saved pegs him as a plus left fielder but a lesser option in center field.
Allen’s brand of speed and defense could prompt a clear postseason contender to consider him on waivers in the next few days. Rosters will expand from 26 to 28 players on Sept. 1, and as long as Allen is with a new organization at 11:59pm ET or earlier on Aug. 31, he’d be eligible for postseason play with that new club. It’s relatively common for teams to carry pinch-running and defensive specialists in such settings, so Allen isn’t a lock to make it through waivers. If he does go unclaimed, he’ll be able to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency and sign with any team.
Rodon will look to get into a good groove and carry some momentum into 2024. He signed a six-year, $162MM deal in the offseason but hasn’t yet been able to provide the Yanks with any return on that investment yet. He dealt with forearm and back issues early in the year and wasn’t able to make his team debut until July. He struggled through six starts, posting a 7.33 ERA, before landing back on the IL due to a hamstring strain.
The Yankee season has largely been sunk by injuries, including those of Rodon but also many others. They are now 60-64 and 9.5 games back of a playoff spot with just over a month left on the schedule. Their playoff odds are down to 0.4% at FanGraphs. But both the club and Rodon would surely be encouraged if he could post some good starts before the offseason gets going, carrying some good feelings into the winter.
Yankees To Promote Everson Pereira, Oswald Peraza
The Yankees are promoting outfield prospect Everson Pereira before tomorrow’s series opener against the Nationals, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network (Twitter link). Infielder Oswald Peraza is also being recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, according to Curry. Both players are already on the 40-man roster, so New York will only need to make corresponding active roster transactions.
Pereira, 22, is headed to the majors for the first time. A native of Venezuela, he was one of the better prospects in the 2017-18 international signing class. While he didn’t have particularly flashy tools, he landed a $1.5MM bonus based on his advanced offensive ability and the chance to stick in center field. He has lived up to that billing by producing at every minor league stop, typically against older competition.
Early-career injuries and the pandemic cancelation of the 2020 minor league campaign meant Pereira didn’t reach full season ball until 2021. He played well enough there for the Yankees to add him to the 40-man roster at year’s end to ensure another club didn’t take him as a developmental flier in the Rule 5 draft. He spent most of last season in High-A, earning a brief look late in the year with Double-A Somerset.
Optioned back to Somerset to open 2023, Pereira hit .291/.362/.545 in 46 games. The Yankees bumped him to Scranton in early July and he’s responded with a .312/.386/.551 showing through 35 contests. Between the top two minor league levels, he has a .300/.373/.548 line over 343 plate appearances. He has connected on 18 home runs and stolen 11 bases in 13 attempts.
Despite the lofty batting average, Pereira hasn’t been an elite contact hitter. He’s gone down on strikes at a lofty 28.6% clip on the season. Pereira has hit for power and walked at a solid 9.3% rate to post strong numbers overall, though prospect evaluators have expressed concern about the swing-and-miss in his game.
Pereira has split his defensive work almost evenly between the three outfield spots. Scouting reports peg him as a viable if unexceptional center fielder. The Yankees figure to break him in at left field alongside Aaron Judge and Harrison Bader. They’ve given most of their left field work of late to Jake Bauers. The left-handed hitter had started his Yankee tenure well but has fallen into a .178/.247/.370 funk while striking out over 43% of the time since the All-Star Break.
Peraza has been on and off the MLB roster on a few occasions. A highly-regarded prospect in his own right, he’s hitting .268/.357/.479 in 63 Triple-A contests on the year. Peraza has scuffled in scattershot MLB time this season but had an impressive 18-game debut in 2022.
The impressive upper minors numbers for each player gets them a look on a free-falling New York club. The Yankees have dropped eight straight and sit at 60-64 after being swept by the Red Sox over the weekend. They’re 26-40 since the start of June and almost certainly going to miss the postseason for the first time in seven years.
Perhaps the promotions of Pereira and Peraza can inject some life into a struggling offense, but their calls seem more about evaluating the 2024 roster. They’re each highly-regarded young players who could plausibly play regular roles next season. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic tweets that both are expected to be everyday players for the stretch run. New York has had no stability in left field all season. Bader and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who has taken over as the primary third baseman) are impending free agents.
Pereira and Peraza each appear on the back half of Baseball America’s recent Top 100 prospects update. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN included Pereira as an honorable mention behind his own Top 50 refresh. While Peraza will exceed rookie eligibility at season’s end, Pereira will remain rookie eligible so long as he takes fewer than 130 MLB at-bats. As with a number of other recent prospect promotions, that could be a meaningful distinction.
Teams that carry a prospect who appears on two of three Top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline for a full service year during their rookie seasons can receive a bonus draft choice under the Prospect Promotion Incentive. Pereira isn’t necessarily a lock to meet that prospect standard but certainly has a chance to qualify, particularly if he plays well down the stretch. If he does and the Yankees carry him on next year’s Opening Day roster, he could earn them an extra draft choice with a Rookie of the Year win or top-three finish in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons.
Yankees Designate Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor And Tyler Wade For Assignment
The Yankees announced they’ve designated Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor and Tyler Wade for assignment. The moves create roster space for the selections of prospects Oswaldo Cabrera, Ron Marinaccio, Everson Pereira, Stephen Ridings and JP Sears to the 40-man roster. That keeps all five from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Frazier and Wade are arbitration-eligible, but the Yankees evidently determined they weren’t going to bring either player back. It’s easy to envision both attracting interest over the coming days, and New York will ten days to explore offers.
Frazier was a middle-of-the-order presence as recently as last year, when he mashed at a .267/.394/.511 clip. That came in a small sample of 160 plate appearances during a truncated season, but it was the kind of offensive upside talent evaluators have lauded for the former #5 overall pick. While Frazier’s a limited defensive player with swing-and-miss concerns, he also flashed a tantalizing blend of raw power and plate discipline.
The 2021 season was a disaster, though. Not only did the 27-year-old’s line fall to a miserly .186/.317/.317, he didn’t play past the end of June due to recurring vertigo-like symptoms. It’s certainly not how either he or the team would’ve envisioned his time in pinstripes coming to an end.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Frazier for a modest $2.4MM salary if he were to proceed through the arbitration process. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see another team roll the dice on his upside for that affordable sum, either via trade or waiver claim. If Frazier were to clear waivers, he’d have the right to elect minor league free agency.
That’s also the case for Wade, who’s projected for an affordable $700K arb salary. The 26-year-old doesn’t bring much power potential, but he draws a fair amount of walks, runs well and can handle multiple positions. Wade is coming off a .268/.354/.323 showing in 145 plate appearances, and it’d register as a surprise if he didn’t land elsewhere in the coming days.
The Yankees swung a deal to acquire Odor from the Rangers just before the start of the 2021 season. While the left-handed hitter had some timely hits, his overall production was lackluster. Odor managed just a .202/.286/.379 mark over 361 plate appearances. The 27-year-old will be guaranteed $12MM next season, the final year of his contract. Texas remains on the hook for essentially all of that sum, so any team that acquires Odor would only owe him the league minimum salary.
Turning to the prospects involved, Ridings may be the best known. The big right-hander already made his MLB debut this past season as a COVID replacement. While he only worked five innings of relief, he looked like a potential late-game weapon. Ridings averaged 97 MPH on his fastball and generated whiffs on a massive 18.9% of his offerings. The 26-year-old also posted dominant numbers in the high minors.
Cabrera is the highest-regarded of the group, according to Baseball America. BA’s #8 organizational farmhand, Cabrera is coming off a solid .256/.311/.492 showing with 24 homers over 478 plate appearances at Double-A Somerset. He’s regarded as a high-end defensive infielder with strong bat-to-ball skills and burgeoning power.
Pereira, a lefty-hitting center fielder, was limited to 221 low minors plate appearances by injuries. The 20-year-old probably isn’t a near-term big league option, but the Yankees didn’t want to chance another team taking a shot on his upside. A highly-regarded amateur coming out of Venezuela in 2017, he raked at a .303/.398/.686 clip when healthy enough to take the field this year. Neither Sears nor Marinaccio has ever made an organizational ranking at FanGraphs or BA, but both posted strong numbers in the high minors and could be big league options in 2022.