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Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles Notes: Rodriguez, Coulombe, Camden Yards

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It has been just over a month since the Orioles placed Grayson Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list due to a right lat/teres strain, and pitching coach Drew French provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) with an update on Rodriguez’s recovery process.  Rodriguez threw his first bullpen session earlier this week, and French said “we’re hopeful that we’ll get a live [batting practice session] in and a rehab assignment started pretty soon.“

This would seem to put Rodriguez on pace for the late-September return that was projected by GM Mike Elias last month, though French left some wiggle room in stating whether or not Rodriguez would return as a starting pitcher.  “We’re very hopeful to have him back in that capacity,” French said, but “obviously everything is on the table at this point, so [we] just kind of take it day-by-day and see where we’re at at the end.”

The calendar is naturally the issue, as the minor league season concludes on September 22.  The Orioles don’t want to rush Rodriguez’s throwing progression for fear of aggravating his injury or causing a setback, yet as French put it, “we know we’re coming up against it right now” in terms of having enough time for Rodriguez to build up his pitch count through minor league rehab starts.  On paper, Rodriguez could perhaps bank a minor league start and then continue his ramp-up in the majors, perhaps as a piggyback starter at first.

Since this would all have to come amidst the Orioles’ battle for the AL East title, it wouldn’t be an ideal situation for either the team or the player.  While Baltimore is a virtual lock to reach the playoffs, winning the division and earning a first-round bye is the Orioles’ preferred method of entry.  That bit of extra break would allow the O’s to line up their ideal postseason rotation, and gauge whether or not Rodriguez is fully fit enough to be part of said rotation.

Rodriguez’s spot as a playoff starter was all but assured at the time of his injury, as the second-year right-hander has a 3.86 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over 116 2/3 innings.  Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin have playoff rotation spots booked, and any of Rodriguez, Albert Suarez, or Dean Kremer could be line for other starts depending on health, effectiveness, matchups, or however long Baltimore’s playoff run lasts.

Another pitcher’s timeline is a little clearer, as Danny Coulombe is set to start a rehab assignment this Wednesday with Triple-A Norfolk.  Coulombe went on the 60-day injured list in June after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his left elbow, and appears to be on pace to return to the Orioles’ relief corps before the season is over.  Coulombe has been nothing short of outstanding since joining the O’s in March 2023, becoming a trusted setup man on the strength of a 2.68 ERA in his 77 1/3 innings in a Baltimore uniform.

Seranthony Dominguez has emerged as the Orioles’ top closing candidate since he was acquired from the Phillies at the trade deadline, helping stabilize a Baltimore bullpen that has been a relative weak link in terms of its overall middle-of-the-pack performance.  Losing Coulombe for a big chunk of the year didn’t help the bullpen’s cause, but his return should help further bolster the reliever depth chart heading into October.

In other Orioles news, chairman and CEO David Rubenstein shared some details on the renovations planned for Camden Yards as part of an interview with FOX 5’s Steve Chenevey (hat tip to Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun).  The process is tentatively slated to begin during the 2025-26 offseason and “take about four years before it’s completed….hopefully by the end of ’28 we will complete all the retrofit of the stadium,” Rubenstein said.  The exact range of renovations isn’t yet known, though Rubenstein suggested that the work will add a few more modern touches and amenities to Camden Yards.

AL East Notes: Orioles, Casas, Story, Schmidt

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias spoke to reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports) ahead of today’s game against the Rays, offering updates on several injured players. First and foremost, he expressed optimism regarding starter Grayson Rodriguez, who landed on the 15-day IL last week. Elias described Rodriguez’s right lat/teres injury as “pretty mild” – much less serious than the similar injury he suffered in 2022 – and said the team is hoping to have him back in the rotation by late September. The young right-hander has a 3.86 ERA across 20 starts this season, and Elias made it clear that the Orioles are still hopeful he will play an “enormous” role for the team come October.

Discussing his club’s minor league rotation depth while Rodriguez is out, Elias named Cade Povich, Cole Irvin, and, interestingly, Brandon Young of Triple-A Norfolk. Povich, 24, is a top prospect and has a spot on the 40-man roster, while Irvin, 30, has six seasons of MLB experience. Young, 25, doesn’t have Povich’s prospect pedigree or Irvin’s big league resume, but he is enjoying a strong season; he has a 3.82 ERA and 2.92 FIP across 20 games between Double-A and Triple-A. Barring another injury, the Orioles rotation is set with Corbin Burnes, Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez. Still, Young is a name worth keeping an eye on.

Elias also provided some good news about several Orioles relievers. Jacob Webb hit the IL last week with inflammation in his right elbow, but tests revealed no structural damage. The club is hopeful his IL stint will be a short one, perhaps no longer than the minimum 15 days. Webb has pitched well for Baltimore since joining the club last August. In 71 2/3 innings, the 30-year-old has a 3.14 ERA and 3.98 SIERA as a middle relief option for manager Brandon Hyde. The Orioles are also planning to have Danny Coulombe back in late September. Coulombe, who has a 2.68 ERA over the past two seasons, has been out since June, when he had surgery to remove bone chips in his left elbow. Finally, Elias touched on Félix Bautista’s rehab, explaining that things are “going really well” for the star closer as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. He will not pitch for Baltimore this year, in the regular season or the playoffs, but he is set to throw off a proper mound next week as he prepares himself for a full and healthy 2025 campaign.

On the position player side of things, Elias noted that there is “still time” for Jordan Westburg to get back on the field before the end of the regular season. The All-Star infielder has been out since he fractured his right hand on July 31. He has 18 home runs, an .815 OPS, and 2.8 FanGraphs WAR over 101 games this year. Elias also expressed hope that Heston Kjerstad won’t be out for “too much longer” as he continues to recover from a concussion. The GM acknowledged that it’s “pretty mild” as far as concussions go, but the team is still taking his symptoms “really seriously” and will not bring him back until they make sure he is “totally out of the woods.” The Orioles had previously optioned Kjerstad back to Triple-A, but placing him back on the injured list reverses the option.

In additional injury news from around the AL East…

  • Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas is reportedly “close to returning” from his rib cage injury, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He is currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester, and Cotillo suggests Casas could be back in the majors as soon as Thursday. Boston will need to activate him once he maxes out his minor league rehab time on August 18, but it appears the slugger could be back in the lineup a few days sooner. Casas hit six home runs over his first 22 games this season before suffering his injury, and his big lefty bat will undoubtedly be a huge boost to the Red Sox’s lineup.
  • Meanwhile, Trevor Story is about to take what manager Alex Cora describes as a “huge step” toward returning this season, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. The shortstop, who has been out since April after undergoing shoulder surgery, will take batting practice on Monday. His surgery seemed to be season-ending back in April, but Cora now believes the two-time All-Star will be back with the Red Sox before the end of the year. Story himself suggested that his return has gone from “a maybe” to “a reality.” He is already ready to return defensively, and he is making excellent progress swinging the bat. He says his swings have felt “really good” with “no hesitation or hold back.”
  • Finally, Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt told reporters (including Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post) that it is “very realistic” to expect he will return to the club before the end of August. The right-hander has been out since May with a right lat strain. Over his first 11 starts, Schmidt pitched to a sparkling 2.52 ERA and 3.64 SIERA. Meanwhile, since his last appearance, Yankees starters rank second-last in the AL with a 5.22 ERA. Their problems go far beyond Schmidt’s injury, but it will surely help to have him back in the fold. It’s not clear how manager Aaron Boone will arrange his rotation once Schmidt returns, but Boone was reportedly “thrilled” with Schmidt’s performance in a live batting practice session earlier today (per Joel Sherman of the New York Post). There will be a job for Schmidt when he’s ready, even if he has to push a more established arm – like Marcus Stroman or Nestor Cortes – out of the rotation.

Orioles Place Grayson Rodriguez On Injured List

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August 7: The Orioles announced today that Rodriguez has been placed on the 15-day IL with right lat/teres discomfort, retroactive to August 4. Left-hander Keegan Akin was recalled in a corresponding move. Additionally, outfielder Heston Kjerstad was placed on the IL with a concussion, retroactive to August 1. He was optioned to the minors on that date but this IL placement presumably rescinds that option.

August 6: Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez was scratched from his scheduled start against the Blue Jays due to what the club later announced as “right lat/teres discomfort.” As noted by Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun, Rodriguez began to warm up for his start this evening before appearing to say to pitching coach Drew French, “I don’t feel right.” Rodriguez left the field for the clubhouse after the conversation and was replaced by right-hander Albert Suarez as the game’s starter. Rodriguez is returning to Baltimore to receive further evaluations and have imaging done on his right lat, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Weyrich) following the club’s loss to the Blue Jays this evening.

Details regarding the severity of Rodriguez’s discomfort are minimal, so it’s unclear at this point if the right-hander will require a trip to the IL or when he could next be expected to take the mound. After all, the righty’s discomfort will surely bring to mind his stint on IL due to shoulder inflammation earlier this year that ultimately lasted nearly three weeks. Rodriguez also has a history of lat issues, having dealt with a lat strain as a prospect back in 2022 that ultimately cost him three and a half months.

Regardless of how long Rodriguez ends up missing, the news is a worrying development for the Orioles just one week after the trade deadline as they gear up for a run at their second consecutive AL East crown and another postseason run. Injuries in the starting rotation have been frequent in Baltimore this year. The club lost three starters (Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells) to UCL surgery back in June and has also previously saw right-hander Dean Kremer spend time on the shelf in addition to Rodriguez’s aforementioned shoulder issue early this year. Those injury woes led the Orioles to stock up on starting pitching depth ahead of last week’s trade deadline as they swung deals to bring right-hander Zach Eflin and lefty Trevor Rogers into the fold.

While those additions helped to shore up the club’s shaky back of the rotation, losing Rodriguez for a significant period would be a deeply worrisome outcome as the 24-year-old has emerged as the club’s clear #2 starter behind ace Corbin Burnes. Rodriguez has generally pitched quite well in the sophomore season of his career with a decent 3.86 ERA in 116 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts that’s matched with even better peripheral numbers. He’s struck out 26.5% of batters faced while walking just 7.3%. That’s left him with a strong 3.67 FIP and an even better 3.60 SIERA, the latter of which is good for top 25 among all qualified starters this year and slightly better than Burnes’s own 3.71 figure.

Should Rodriguez end up missing time, it seems likely that the club would turn to Suarez to take over his spot in the rotation on a more permanent basis. The 34-year-old journeyman last appeared in the majors back in 2017 before the Orioles brought him in on a minor league deal and added him to their roster, but he’s done well in a swing role since then, with a 3.75 ERA in 15 starts including his five scoreless innings of work filling in for Rodriguez this evening. Other options to replace Rodriguez in the rotation (or Suarez in a long relief role if he returns to starting) would be youngster Cade Povich, who has struggled to a 6.27 ERA in eight starts in the majors this year, and lefty Cole Irvin, who was recently outrighted off the 40-man roster. Top pitching prospect Chayce McDermott, who made his big league debut in a spot start earlier this year, may have been a possible candidate to help fill in for Rodriguez in the majors but the club announced earlier today that he’s been placed on the minor league IL with a stress reaction in his right scapula earlier today.

Orioles Reinstate Grayson Rodriguez, Designate Mike Baumann

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The Orioles announced that Grayson Rodriguez has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list, and he’ll make his return to the mound today in a start against the Mariners.  To make room on the active roster, right-hander Mike Baumann was designated for assignment.

Rodriguez was retroactively placed on the IL on April 30, and the righty’s bout of shoulder inflammation ended up being minor enough that he’ll return after less than three weeks on the sidelines.  Baltimore’s star pitching prospect has done well over his first two MLB seasons, and he has a 3.71 ERA in 34 innings and six starts thus far in 2024.

In the definition of “good problem to have,” basically all of the Orioles’ starters have fared well this season, allowing the team to pretty easily navigate IL stints for Rodriguez, John Means, and Tyler Wells.  The logjam of quality pitchers bodes well for a team that has entered a very busy portion of the schedule.  Yesterday’s game with Seattle kicked off a stretch of 42 games in 44 days for the O’s, so the team will be moving to a six-man rotation to keep everyone as fresh as possible.

Even with this oncoming rush of games, the pitching logjam filtered down to the bullpen, making Baumann the odd man out.  Baumann is one of several Baltimore relievers who is out of minor league options, so the O’s had to designate him in order to try and move him to Triple-A, thus exposing the reliever to waivers.  It certainly seems possible that another team might scoop Baumann off the DFA wire, but the O’s will surely first test the trade market for any particularly keen suitors.

Baumann has spent his entire pro career with the Orioles, since his selection as a third-round pick in the 2017 draft.  Debuting in the majors in 2021, Baumann started four of his 13 appearances in 2022 but has since worked out of the bullpen, posting a 3.69 ERA in 83 bullpen innings since Opening Day 2023.  With a pretty average 21.7% strikeout rate and an 11.8% walk rate that is on the high side, Baumann isn’t necessarily a darling of the advanced metrics, though his expected statistics (via Statcast) have improved this season, and he is doing a much better job at limiting barrels.  All of this combined with Baumann’s ability to work beyond one inning out of the pen might add up to a good deal of interest for teams in need of bullpen depth.

East Notes: Riley, Rodriguez, Poche, Winker

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Austin Riley left tonight’s game in the fourth inning with what the Braves described as left side tightness.  The removal was specifically cited to be “a precaution,” so there isn’t yet any indication that Riley may have suffered an oblique-related injury.  Speaking with reporters (including Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) afterwards, Riley said he felt the side soreness during batting practice but didn’t inform the team because he didn’t think the issue was too much of a concern.

Though Atlanta has an impressive 24-13 record, Riley is one of a few Braves stars who have yet to really get rolling at the plate.  A top-seven finisher in NL MVP voting in each of the last three seasons, Riley has hit only .245/.319/.388 over his first 163 plate appearances, with just three home runs.  The power dropoff is unusual since Riley’s advanced metrics are largely similar to previous seasons, though since Riley has also shown some streakiness in past years, a breakout might be just around the corner if he is healthy.  Losing Riley for any stretch of time would hurt Atlanta’s lineup, though the newly-acquired Short might have a sudden path to regular lineup if Riley does need to hit the injured list.

More from the NL and AL East divisions….

  • Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez came out of a 30-pitch bullpen session today feeling “great,” he told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko and other reporters.  Rodriguez’s 15-day IL stint due to shoulder inflammation retroactively started on April 30, so Wednesday would be his first day eligible for activation, though it seems as though he’ll be out for at least a little beyond that date.  Rodriguez figures he’ll throw another bullpen session and then it isn’t yet certain if he’ll need a rehab start or not before returning to Baltimore’s rotation.  With a 3.71 ERA in his first 34 innings, Rodriguez is one of several Orioles pitchers performing well this season, giving the O’s a nice problem to sort out once everyone is healthy.
  • Mid-back tightness sent Colin Poche to the Rays’ 15-day IL on April 24, and he had to halt his throwing program to receive “a second cortisone-type shot, a more impactful kind for which he had to undergo anesthesia,” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  The plan is for Poche to start throwing again on Wednesday, and this setback might push his IL activation into June.  Poche was a quality workhorse out of the Rays’ bullpen in 2022-23, but he has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 9 1/3 innings so far this season.
  • Jesse Winker had to make an early exit today, as Winker’s back spasms forced the Nationals to pinch-hit for the outfielder in the sixth inning of today’s 3-2 loss to the Red Sox.  Winker told the Washington Post’s Andrew Golden (X link) and other reporters that his back was sore even prior to the game, but the issue got worse after he dove for a Rob Refsnyder line drive single in the bottom of the fifth.  Though he has greatly cooled off since a very strong start to the season, Winker’s .235/.350/.386 slash line and four homers over 157 PA still translates to a 114 wRC+, representing a nice bounce-back from a very disappointing 2023 campaign.  It seems like Winker will miss a game or two at least, and a 10-day IL stint might be necessary if the spasms persist.

Orioles Place Grayson Rodriguez On Injured List

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve placed right-hander Grayson Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. The move is retroactive to April 30. Rodriguez will be replaced by veteran lefty John Means, who has been reinstated from a stint on the 15-day IL himself. Means has yet to pitch this season while recovering from a left forearm strain.

To this point, it’s unclear when Rodriguez hurt himself or how serious the injury is. He started Monday’s game and went 5 2/3 innings, throwing 101 pitches in the process. Until more information comes from the club, it can only be speculated as to how long he’ll out.

Regardless, it’s always a bit concerning when anything goes on with a pitcher’s throwing arm. Losing Rodriguez for any amount of time is a blow to the O’s since he has been in good form for quite a while now. His big league career got off to a rough start last year, as he had a 7.35 earned run average through 10 starts.

The Orioles optioned him to the minors and recalled him almost two months later, with Rodriguez posting good results since then. He had a 2.58 ERA after that recall last year and he has a 3.71 mark so far this year. Going back to that midseason call-up last year to today, he has a 2.93 ERA over 19 starts. In that time, he has a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate.

Subtracting that kind of pitcher would hurt any rotation, but the O’s also have Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells on the injured list. Until today, Means was in that group as well. After today’s transactions, the healthy rotation consists of Means, Corbin Burnes, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez.

Burnes is excellent but there are some question marks behind him. Irvin has a good ERA this year but iffy peripherals that suggest he’s not much different from past seasons. Kremer has a 4.19 ERA despite a .209 batting average on balls in play he won’t be able to maintain. Suárez has looked good in his three starts but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep it going since he’s 34 years old and this is his first stint in the majors since 2017.

As for Means, he’s a big unknown himself. The lefty posted a 3.81 ERA with the O’s until requiring Tommy John surgery in April of 2022. He returned late last year and made four starts but didn’t make the club’s postseason roster due to some elbow soreness. He began this year on the IL and has been rehabbing in recent weeks, but with shaky results. He has thrown 18 2/3 innings for Triple-A Norfolk but with 18 earned runs allowed in that time.

It’s impossible to say what Means can provide for the club this year after hardly pitching at all in the previous two seasons and his poor results during his rehab, though he would be an asset if he could even get part of the way back to his pre-surgery form. Bradish is also nearing activation, which will give Baltimore another arm to bolster the group and could perhaps push Suárez into a long relief role in the bullpen.

The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

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The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Orioles To Recall Grayson Rodriguez

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Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Dan Connolly of sportsnaut.net, today that right-handed flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez is slated to start tomorrow’s game against the Dodgers.

A consensus top ten prospect in the sport entering the 2023 campaign, Rodriguez first received the call to the big leagues early this season but struggled badly across ten starts, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.93 FIP in 45 1/3 innings of work. That performance saw him optioned to the minors at the end of May. In seven starts since returning to Triple-A, Rodriguez has dominated to the tune of a 1.69 ERA with a fantastic 36.5% strikeout rate in 37 1/3 innings of work. That level of dominance indicates that Rodriguez has little else to gain from additional reps in the minors, making today’s news that Rodriguez will return to the big league rotation a natural next step.

If Rodriguez is able to live up to the promise of his Triple-A results and prospect pedigree at the major league level, it would be nothing short of transformative for the Orioles’ rotation. While strong performances in the lineup and bullpen have propelled the club to an excellent 56-35 record so far this season, a mediocre rotation has held the club back in their pursuit of the division-leading Rays for the AL East crown. Orioles starts rank just 18th in the majors in ERA and bottom five in the AL in terms of fWAR this season, with the likes of Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, and Kyle Gibson offering performances closer to serviceable than dominant.

By calling up Rodriguez two weeks before the trade deadline on August 1, the Orioles will be able to see the 23-year-old hurler make multiple starts before trade season comes to an end. That’ll give the club valuable information about how much he can be relied on to make an impact for the club as Baltimore eyes a return to postseason play for the first time since 2016. The Orioles have long been expected to add to their rotation ahead of the coming trade deadline, but a dominant showing from the youngster could give the club’s front office additional confidence in pursuing a top-of-the-market option such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery to pair with Rodriguez at the front of the club’s rotation.

Rodriguez is already on the 40-man roster, but a corresponding move will nonetheless be required prior to tomorrow’s game in order to make room for the right-hander on the active roster. Connolly notes that left-hander Cole Irvin will move to the bullpen going forward to make room for Rodriguez in the club’s rotation. After being acquired from the A’s in an offseason trade, Irvin had a disastrous start to his Orioles career with a 10.66 ERA across his first three starts of the season. That led the club to demote him in early April, though in 25 innings of work in the big leagues since then he’s posted a far more palatable 2.88 ERA and 4.04 FIP. He figures to offer the Orioles a solid multi-inning option out of the bullpen going forward.

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Orioles Option Grayson Rodriguez

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The Orioles announced this morning that the club had optioned right-hander Grayson Rodriguez to Triple-A and recalled left-hander Keegan Akin.

The move brings to an end Rodriguez’s first taste of big league action in his career. The club’s first-round pick in 2018 and a consensus top-10 prospect entering the season, Rodriguez has struggled badly to this point in the majors. The hard-throwing righty sports a ugly 7.35 ERA, 41% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and a 5.94 FIP in ten starts this season. While a 26.5% strikeout rate is excellent, Rodriguez’s 10% walk rate is well below league average. Most concerning of all, however, is the frequency with which Rodriguez has given up hard contact. The youngster’s average exit velocity, HardHit%, and Barrel% are all in the tenth percentile or worse among qualified players this season.

Rodriguez’s struggles this season have been particularly pronounced since the calendar flipped to May. In five starts this month, Rodriguez has allowed 27 runs (26 earned) with nearly as many combined walks (10) and home runs (11) as strikeouts (22) while pitching into the sixth inning just once and failing to finish the fourth inning three times. All that adds up to a brutal 11.14 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and a 9.43 FIP in 21 innings of work.

Given Rodriguez’s deep struggles, it’s impossible to know when his next big league opportunity will be. That said, Rodriguez obviously has incredible talent, and is far from the only starter struggling for the Orioles this season. Offseason acquisition Cole Irvin is currently in Triple-A himself after posting a 10.38 ERA in 13 innings of work, while Tyler Wells sports a FIP north of 5.00 despite his solid 3.47 ERA. Dean Kremer (94 ERA+) and Kyle Bradish (100 ERA+) have both been roughly league average to this point in the season, leaving offseason signing Kyle Gibson as the club’s only properly above average starter, with a 3.82 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 66 innings of work.

Replacing Rodriguez on the active roster is Akin, who turned in a quality season as a reliever last year, with a 3.20 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 81 2/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old lefty struggled somewhat with a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season, but a 3.76 FIP indicates his underlying performance may have been better than the results would indicate. In seven innings of work at the Triple-A level, Akin has dominated to a 1.29 ERA with thirteen strikeouts.

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