AL East Notes: Rupe, Bautista, Red Sox, Rays
Ten years ago today, Marlins starter A.J. Burnett pitched a no-hitter against the Padres despite walking nine batters. Now a member of the Yankees' rotation, Burnett is off to a strong start after a disappointing 2010 season. Here's the latest on the Yankees' division rivals…
- Josh Rupe cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles designated the reliever for assignment on Tuesday.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that the Red Sox inquired about Jose Bautista during the offseason, only to hear that the Blue Jays weren't interested in moving him. Talks never went anywhere, as the Blue Jays were in the process of trading Vernon Wells and extending Bautista (on a deal that’s looking shrewd in the early going).
- John Lackey is in a major rut and he knows it, as Tomase writes. “Everything went wrong that could go wrong,” Lackey said of his start against the Blue Jays last night. “It’s pretty much the story of the whole damn year.”
- Don Connolly of the Baltimore Sun looks back at the 2008 trade that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle for Adam Jones, Chris Tillman and others and concludes that it was one of the top five deals in Orioles history, but not quite as good as it seemed a year or two ago.
- James Shields has re-emerged as a top pitcher and is pitching with a sense of purpose, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, who spoke to the Rays right-hander about his 2011 success.
- In today's Insider-only blog post, ESPN's Buster Olney notes that Rays ace David Price is relying heavily on his fastball. Price threw 103 fastballs out of 112 pitches yesterday, though he averaged a season-high 95.3 mph with the pitch and threw it to both sides of the plate.
Olney On Yankees, Rays, Manny
Zach Britton certainly hasn't been surrounded by as much hype as Stephen Strasburg was last year, but, like the Nationals' youngster, Britton is "must-see TV," according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (Twitter link). In today's Insider-only blog, Olney says the Orioles lefty looks like the best of 2011's rookie class so far this year. Here are some other items of interest from the piece:
- The Yankees are trying to get 20 to 35 starts from their fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, before the trade market really takes shape. At that point, the team could try to pursue an arm like Brett Myers or James Shields, if they're available.
- Olney is hearing from clubs that they will now "warily approach" making any trades with the Rays, who are considered a "savvy organization." While it's too early for the Cubs to worry about offseason acquisition Matt Garza, particularly given his impressive strikeout rate, the right-hander isn't happy with his first two starts.
- Olney agrees with Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times, who says that the Rays and their fans are the ones who Manny Ramirez's retirement hits the hardest. Not only will the Tampa fans miss out on watching Manny, but continued struggles by the team could result in key players being placed on the trade block.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Rays, Twins, Ackley
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive in…
- Rival executives are already speculating that the Rays could be sellers at the trade deadline in the wake of Evan Longoria's injury and Manny Ramirez's retirement. James Shields and B.J. Upton are most likely to go.
- The Twins nearly traded for David Eckstein in 2009, but they're not going to sign him or anyone else to fill in for the injured Tsuyoshi Nishioka. The team is currently over-budget, so they'll fill the hole from within.
- The Mariners are having second base trouble for the second straight season, but Rosenthal spoke to some scouts who said the position figures to be a question for the foreseeable future. Top prospect Dustin Ackley will hit, but they say his defense is sketchy.
Is James Shields The Next Rays’ Starter To Go?
Quality starting pitching is the best currency in the game, and no team has traded more of it in recent years than the Rays. They've traded what amounts to an above-average rotation within the last 27 months alone: Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Mitch Talbot, and Scott Kazmir. There are a number of teams out there that would trade their starting staff for that fivesome right now.
Tampa was able to trade away all those arms because their farm system continues to pump out top flight pitching prospects. If you dig through Baseball America's all-time top 100 prospects lists, you'll see that the franchise hasn't had a top pitching prospect bust since Dewon Brazelton, the third overall pick in the 2001 draft. That's the result of tremendous scouting and player development, as well as incredible luck.
If it wasn't for B.J. Upton's brief cameo in 2004, the longest tenured player on the team would be 29-year-old righty James Shields. He's given the Rays four straight seasons of 200+ innings with a 4.17 ERA overall, though he slipped to a 5.18 ERA with a league leading 34 homers allowed last summer. The 2011 season is the last guaranteed year on Shields' contract ($4.25MM), though he would still be under control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2012. The club also holds very affordable options for 2012 ($7MM), 2013 ($9MM), and 2014 ($12MM).
With David Price, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jeff Niemann still years away from huge paydays, Shields is the obvious candidate to be the next piece of trade bait. That contract is definitely team friendly, and guys that you can pencil in for 200 innings a year don't exactly grow on trees. As an added bonus, his fastball velocity has actually increased over the last few years, quite uncommon for pitchers that have logged so many innings. Throw in AL East and playoff experience, and you've got a hot commodity. Just look at the demand for Garza.
Alex Torres (acquired in the Kazmir trade) and Alex Cobb will begin the 2011 season just a phone call away in Triple-A, and they represent the next wave of pitching help. Behind them will be Nick Barnese, Alex Colome, and Matt Moore in Double-A, and soon enough we'll be talking about Enny Romero and Jake Thompson in the same way. All seven of those guys were ranked among the team's 16 best prospects in the latest edition of Baseball America's Prospect Handbook.
Both the Rangers and Rockies had their eye on Shields this offseason, but the market for his services certainly wouldn't be limited to those two clubs. The Yankees and Nationals are known to be seeking pitching at the moment, and the Cardinals could also join the mix in the wake of Adam Wainwright's injury. More than likely, Tampa will hold onto Shields at least for the first half of the season before deciding to move him. They also have the option of waiting until next offseason, when they could take advantage of a thin free agent pitching market.
The Rays have been very successful in recent years thanks to their never-ending cycle of pitching. They get what they can out of a pitcher, then trade him once his contract becomes prohibitive and simply replace him with another high-end, young (and cheap) arm. Shields has started the last three Opening Days for Tampa, but 2011 could be his last with the team.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Rays Not Looking To Deal A Starter
Despite having six solid starting pitchers and serious needs elsewhere in their lineup, Rays VP Andrew Friedman told reporters that he isn't looking to trade a starter, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times.
“I’ve said before that it’s not a situation we look at like having two first basemen. We were very fortunate last year until August that all of our guys took the ball every five days. It doesn’t always happen that way, and depth on the starting pitching front is more valuable than anywhere else,” Friedman said.
With Cliff Lee finally off of the market and the Royals seeking a king's ransom for Zack Grienke, one has to think that the Rays could cash in by moving one of their pitchers. The Rangers, Brewers, and Cubs have all talked to Tampa Bay about the arbitration-bound Matt Garza. James Shields has also been linked to the Rangers as well as the Rockies. However, it sounds as though the Rays might be content to stand pat for the time being.
Cafardo’s Latest: Red Sox, Pavano, Buehrle, Millwood
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe names the winners and losers of the Winter Meetings in his newest piece, with the Red Sox, Nationals, and White Sox topping his list of winners. Cafardo also shares a handful of hot stove notes. Here are the highlights:
- Before they signed Carl Crawford, the Red Sox "did a ton of work" on Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Beltran.
- Carl Pavano figures to wait for Cliff Lee to sign, so he can see the type of offers he receives as the top pitcher on the market. Cafardo thinks Pavano could be a backup plan for the Rangers if they don't land Lee, though the Twins still remain the favorites for the 34-year-old. Texas has also inquired on Matt Garza and James Shields.
- The White Sox will listen to offers for Mark Buehrle, whose contract expires after the 2011 season. Buehrle earned ten and five rights this year, so he'd have the option of vetoing any trade.
- Agent Scott Boras says a strong market is developing for Kevin Millwood.
- Team officials that spoke to Cafardo had mixed opinions on free agent backstop Russell Martin. One opined that Martin "can't call a game," while another raved about the enthusiasm the catcher brings each day.
- According to Cafardo, the Red Sox were the only team to discuss Justin Upton with the Diamondbacks, balking at Kevin Towers' insistence that Daniel Bard be included in a potential deal.
- The Astros would have interest in trading Matt Lindstrom and Jeff Keppinger.
- Grant Balfour is seeking a three-year contract. The Red Sox have looked into him, but are hoping Matt Guerrier will accept their offer. As Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston noted today (via Twitter), Guerrier is one of the top relief targets for Boston, along with Brian Fuentes and Jesse Crain.
Renck On Rockies’ Pitching Targets
Jon Garland, Hiroki Kuroda and Jake Westbrook were three of the top names on Colorado's wish list of free agent starters, but all three signed elsewhere. Troy Renck of the Denver Post (via Twitter links) chimes in about some other arms that have caught the Rockies' interest.
- The Rockies could join the Cubs and at least four other teams in the Brandon Webb sweepstakes. Renck says Colorado "might check in on Webb later."
- There's no better than a "50-50" chance that Jeff Francis re-signs with the Rockies. Francis is looking for a "one-year deal, [with] guaranteed money," so it may just be a case of whether or not the Rockies want to outbid other interested teams.
- Tampa Bay is "in holding mode" with its pitchers right now, which may be preventing Colorado from making a serious bid for Matt Garza or James Shields.
- Some of Colorado's "secondary targets" include Jeremy Bonderman, Dave Bush, Aaron Harang and Kevin Millwood. Renck specifies that Bush and Harang would be offered minor league contracts, but if no veteran pitchers are signed, then Esmil Rogers and the newly-acquired Felipe Paulino "would both get a shot in the rotation."
Odds & Ends: Mets, Collins, Minaya, Pirates, Rays
Some links on a Sunday evening:
- SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that Chip Hale will be on Terry Collins' coaching staff after losing out on the Mets' managerial job. Meanwhile, Andy Martino of The New York Daily News tweets that both Mookie Wilson and Dave Wallace will "definitely be considered" for the coaching staff as well.
- ESPN's Adam Rubin offers up ten tidbits about new Mets' manager Terry Collins.
- Omar Minaya is in no hurry to accept one of the many offers he's received, writes ESPN's Enrique Rojas. The former Mets GM says he's received offers for various positions from several teams, including some to be an assistant general manager.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tells us that the Pirates are set to hire four coaches for Clint Hurdle's new staff: Ray Searage as the pitching coach, Gregg Ritche as the hitting coach, Jeff Bannister as the third base coach, and Nick Leyva as the bench coach.
- Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times feels that the Rays will hang onto B.J. Upton this offseason and likely won't trade a pitcher (candidates include James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, or Wade Davis) until July, unless the offers get "crazy good" once Cliff Lee signs. He does believe, though, that Jason Bartlett will be traded by Spring Training.
- Bartlett's availability will likely have a negative impact on the market for Marco Scutaro, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal.
- Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at Ruben Amaro's five best and five worst moves, and says the jury is still out on the Philly GM.
Cafardo On Greinke, Arroyo, Hall, Rays, Ortiz
In today's column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo examines the possibility of a Zack Greinke trade, noting that the Red Sox should at least inquire, given Allard Baird's history with the Royals and Greinke. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:
- One AL GM on Greinke vs. Cliff Lee: "There may not be anyone better than Lee right now, but how long is that going to last? …. If you’re looking to build around someone, you would roll the dice with Greinke and hope that what he showed this season is an off year and not a sign of things to come. You’d have to do due diligence, but the upside with Greinke is pretty good."
- The Reds are attempting to work out an extension with Bronson Arroyo that would keep him in Cincinnati for a few years and slightly reduce his 2011 salary ($13MM). That way, the team could have some flexibility to add free agents this winter, and would lock up one of its best arms to a long-term contract.
- Bill Hall will look to find a full-time job at one position this offseason, but "people around Hall" are suggesting the all-purpose utility role he played in Boston might be better suited for him.
- The Rays are expected to field trade offers for B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, and maybe James Shields.
- David Ortiz and the Red Sox have had some contract discussions, but there's no resolution yet on either an extension or Ortiz's 2011 option. Boston will have until three days after the World Series ends to decide on the $12.5MM option, last month, we heard the Sox were prepared to exercise it.
Will The Rays Trade Garza Or Shields This Winter?
It's pure speculation, but rival executives who spoke to ESPN's Buster Olney expect the Rays to shop Matt Garza or James Shields in the offseason given a potential rotation surplus. Rotation surpluses typically disappear very quickly, but let's dive into this possibility anyway.
Garza, 27 in November, has a 4.11 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 this year with 20 home runs allowed in 135.6 innings. Olney notes that Garza has a higher ceiling than Shields, but lacks the cost certainty. Garza will enter his second arbitration year after earning $3.35MM in 2010. I estimate he'll make around $6MM next year. Garza is under team control through 2013, though most good young starters sign extensions instead of reaching free agency going year-by-year.
Shields, 29 in December, has a 4.54 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 this year with 22 home runs allowed in 142.6 innings. Shields and Fausto Carmona are the only two pitchers I've found with three club options in their contracts. Shields can be controlled through 2014.
Both pitchers are controllable, under 30, and healthy. Both have succeeded in the AL East. Teams like the Nationals, Mets, Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, and Twins would have to inquire if Garza or Shields becomes available this winter.