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Quick Hits: Schwarber, Nathan, Lincecum, Capuano

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Cubs catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber left today’s game after suffering an apparent left leg injury in an outfield collision with Dexter Fowler. He ended up being carted off of the field after medical personnel examined his knee and lower leg — including his ankle. It’s usually difficult to know the severity of an injury just from watching a review, and it’s certainly possible that Schwarber escaped serious harm, but the violent impact to a vulnerable area certainly did not look promising. Currently, there’s no news of even an initial assessment, so this remains a notable story to watch at present.

Here’s more from around the game:

  • Free agent righty Joe Nathan is working out on his home with intentions of a return at some point this year, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. The 41-year-old is on his way back from Tommy John surgery and will also be looking to bounce back from some tough recent results, but he’s had success well into his late thirties.
  • Another familiar veteran righty working out privately is Tim Lincecum, who was reportedly planning a showcase that has yet to occur. While we await further news on that front, Dan Wade of the Hardball Times looks at the general prognosis for his attempt to rehab a hip labrum tear. In Wade’s analysis, it’s reasonable to think that the 31-year-old could return to being a back-of-the-rotation arm, though anything more may be wishful thinking.
  • Chris Capuano is set to earn a $1.5MM base salary with the Brewers after cracking the Opening Day roster as a minor league free agent, Heyman reports on Twitter. The southpaw can also take down as much as $1.25MM in incentives. Capuano, 37, will open in the pen but could also provide a swingman option as the season goes along.

Quick Hits: Wedge, Nathan, Draft, Roster Building

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A surprisingly large number of noteworthy veteran free agents are still available, a phenomenon that ESPN’s Buster Olney explores in his latest subscription-only column.  The signing drought extends to big-name free agents like Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo to lower-tier players just looking for Spring Training invites.  “I understand that my guy isn’t what he once was, but nothing?  Not even a chance to come in and impress and beat out other guys for a job in camp? I just don’t get it,” one agent said.  Several executives and agents believe that tanking could be part of the issue, as teams looking for a higher draft pick in 2017 have little need for a veteran who could provide a win or two.  Other factors include an under-valuing of experience, and a greater reliance on both young players and trades to fill out a roster.

Here’s more from around the baseball world on Babe Ruth’s 121st birthday…

  • The Blue Jays have hired Eric Wedge as a player development advisor, the team announced.  The former Indians and Mariners manager is well known to Jays president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins from their time together in Cleveland, which included an AL Central title and a run to Game Seven of the ALCS in 2007.  Wedge had been rumored to join Toronto’s front office for several weeks.
  • Wedge’s hiring “has the feel of manager in waiting,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) opines.  A managerial change would be rather a surprise in the wake of the Blue Jays’ AL East championship, though skipper John Gibbons has a well-known close relationship with former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos and it isn’t unusual for a new front office to install a new face in the dugout.
  • Dave Pepe, Joe Nathan’s agent, tells FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi (Twitter links) that his client is planning to pitch in 2016.  “He feels great…We are just going to look for the best opportunity and are not necessarily in any rush to sign,” Pepe said.  Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery (the second such procedure of his career) last April and said earlier this offseason that he was hoping to pitch by May or June.  Despite Nathan’s age and injury history, around 10 teams were checking in on him.
  • It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a high school pitcher be selected near the top of the amateur draft, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron writes, with perhaps even the Phillies using their first overall pick on highly-touted southpaw Jason Groome.  While only a few of the high school arms taken with the top few picks have developed into productive big leaguers, Cameron notes that this year’s draft class doesn’t yet offer much in the way of standout hitting prospects or college pitchers who could be technically “safer” choices.
  • Some of the draft’s intriguing junior college prospects are profiled by ESPN.com’s Eric Longenhagen (Insider subscription required), including the children of some prominent former Major Leaguers.
  • Each team’s roster is broken down by Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom to investigate how clubs acquire their players — whether by trades, international signings, free agent signings, waiver pickups, or the amateur or Rule 5 drafts.  Fagerstrom breaks down each category by fWAR to see where each club excels at deriving value, including some notable observations about the Giants’ unmatched wealth of homegrown talent and the Cubs’ strong run of recent trades.

Free Agent Notes: Cespedes, Mets, Davis, Nathan

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ESPN’s Buster Olney opines that the Mets should not commit to Yoenis Cespedes, as they’d be better served holding onto the remaining resources they have in order to see what needs might arise during the season (ESPN Insider subscription required). Barring a sudden increase in payroll from ownership, he says, rashly pursuing Cespedes could prevent the team from addressing a more significant area this coming summer. But public pressure is growing for New York to make a play for the team’s 2015 trade-deadline star, he notes.

More on the market …

  • John Harper of the New York Daily News feels that the Justin Upton signing further adds to the pressure on the Mets, though he also adds that the $132.75MM guarantee probably indicates that Upton had significant interest from multiple teams. If that’s the case, some of those clubs could very well turn their attention to Cespedes. If Cespedes lands a comparable or greater deal, Harper points out, it will explain why the Mets failed to bring him back into the fold. However, if he signs for three or four years elsewhere, Harper believes it’ll be hard for the Mets to justify their lack of spending. As we’ve discussed often here at MLBTR, though, short-term or even mid-range scenarios such as Harper describes continue to appear unlikely for Cespedes, who — like Upton — still figures to find a large and lengthy guarantee despite his extended wait on the market.
  • When evaluating baseball contracts, the concept of deferred money is both rightly referenced and often misunderstood. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides good perspective on the recent Chris Davis deal, explaining that the total value of his contract can’t just be discounted all the way to one, lump-sum present value — at least, that is, unless we treat every other contract the same way. (Point being: we typically add up future payouts in multi-year deals without discounting their value, even though the same rationale applies to all money owed in the future, whether or not “deferred.”) Cameron attempts to put the Davis deal on roughly the same footing as a more typically structured deal that pays out annual salaries in the year they are earned, concluding that the $161MM guarantee is probably best thought of as a $148MM pact.
  • Veteran reliever Joe Nathan is getting bites from around ten teams, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets. Nathan is looking to come back from Tommy John surgery at 41 years of age. While he’s not likely to be signed with any grand expectations, and struggled in his most recent run with the Tigers, it’s easy to see why teams would be willing to give him a shot given that he remained productive well in his late thirties.
  • Free agency is typically the most straightforward way to address a need, and Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth looks at what teams have done to address the biggest problem areas around the league from the 2015 season.

AL Central Notes: Alexei, White Sox, Indians, Nathan

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The White Sox haven’t closed the door on a return for longtime shortstop Alexei Ramirez, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670thescore.com. Levine’s belief at this time is that most of the remaining budget will be spent on an outfield upgrade, but he opines that Ramirez’s strong second half — .277/.325/.432 following the All-Star break — and questions about Tyler Saladino’s bat would make a two-year deal with Ramirez a wise investment. The Sox could still pay Ramirez less than the $10MM he’d have earned via his previously declined club option, and Ramirez would then serve as a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, who could be ready in 2017. Levine writes that Ian Desmond is the only other free agent shortstop that Chicago “may also look into,” but Desmond’s career OBP doesn’t fit the team’s needs, and a long-term deal for him would clash with Anderson’s timeline to the Majors. Additionally, Levine hears that the Padres, too, have interest in adding Ramirez on a short-term deal, suggesting that there will be some competition if the Sox do pursue a reunion.

Here’s more from the AL Central….

  • We’ve already heard quite a bit on the White Sox and their outfield options today, and MLB.com’s Scott Merkin suggests that smoke is coming from a legitimate fire. (Twitter links.) He writes that he anticipates that Chicago would pursue an alternative outfield addition if it’s unable to land Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, or Alex Gordon.
  • While it’s still unclear whether they’ll make an aggressive move on the open market, the White Sox are rather uniquely well-situated to do so, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello explains. Most importantly, argues Petriello, the team has a high-quality core and other affordable pieces that make near-term competitiveness the optimal strategy. While there are several major areas still in need of improvement, that actually increases the marginal return on a well-targeted signing. And then there’s the fact that Chicago snuck into the top ten in next year’s draft and thus needs only to sacrifice a compensation pick (tied to the qualifying offer rejected by Jeff Samardzija) in order to add a QO-bound free agent. That certainly increases the team’s flexibility to act opportunistically in a position player market that is still loaded with quality options.
  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer recently fielded a number of reader inquiries, sharing some insight into the Indians’ signings of Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli as well as the team’s plans at third base and trade scenarios involving starting pitchers. Hoynes believes that Cleveland will utilize a combination of Giovanny Urshela and Jose Ramirez at third base, and, in response to a question about a potential swap of Yasiel Puig for a starting pitcher, says the Indians want more than one piece in return for any deal sending away Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco. Hoynes doesn’t specifically mention whether a 1-for-1 deal involving Puig and one of those two prized young starters has been discussed, though he does note that he doesn’t believe Cleveland has ever had any real intention of trading a starting pitcher.
  • Reliever Joe Nathan — a long-time member of the Twins who pitched most recently for the Tigers — is hoping he’ll be ready for game action by May or June, he said in an MLB Network appearance today (via Jon Morosi, on Twitter). The 41-year-old had a disappointing run in Detroit, to say the least, but had some outstanding seasons before that and would still make for an interesting bounceback candidate.

Rangers Notes: RH Bat, Barnette, Moreland, Catchers, Nathan

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The Rangers are “making progress” in talks with a yet-unknown right-handed hitter, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. That hitter isn’t Mike Napoli, Grant hears, and while he initially noted that the Rangers have some interest in Steve Pearce, he’s since tweeted that it’s not Pearce, either. Ideally, the Rangers want a player that can handle first base and also spell Josh Hamilton in left field against left-handed starters, Grant notes. There aren’t many right-handed first base/outfield types on the market at present, though I wonder if Ryan Raburn could be of interest in such a role, provided he can prove capable at first.

A few more Rangers notes…

  • General manager Jon Daniels “hasn’t been motivated” by any of the trade talks he’s had regarding Mitch Moreland, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (links to Twitter). Wilson adds that if the Rangers are to make any trades, they’ll likely trade away prospects or Major League relievers rather than dealing from their core of position players or starting pitchers.
  • Wilson also reports that the Rangers are among the teams with interest in right-hander Tony Barnette — a former D-backs farmhand that broke out as a dominant closer with Japan’s Yakult Swallows in recent seasons. Yakult set a $500K posting fee on Barnette, and MLBTR reported recently that five teams were in the mix for his services. Daniels confirmed the interest to Wilson tonight when speaking to the media.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that the Rangers checked in with the Orioles on Matt Wieters after Wieters accepted the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer. Wieters, of course, would’ve had to approve any trade proposal that may have arisen (as is stipulated by the CBA for players who accept QOs), but talks went nowhere anyhow, according to Rosenthal.
  • The Rangers like Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy but consider the cost to acquire him to be prohibitive, Rosenthal further tweets. That shouldn’t come as a surprise in light of a tweet from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt, who says the asking price for Lucroy begins with highly touted minor league slugger Joey Gallo.
  • The Rangers were one of eight clubs to visit with right-hander Joe Nathan in Nashville, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Giants and Tigers also met with the former All-Star at the Winter Meetings as he seeks a new team while recovering from 2015 Tommy John surgery.

Bullpen Notes: Clippard, Chapman, Nathan, Twins, LaCava

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Here’s the latest reliever news from around the game…

  • The Mets have discussed re-signing Tyler Clippard, Newsday’s Marc Carig reports.  Clippard posted a 3.06 ERA in 32 1/3 innings for the Mets after being acquired in a late-July trade from Oakland.
  • From that same item, Carig says the Mets “briefly discussed” making a move for Aroldis Chapman at the last trade deadline but they didn’t revisit that idea this winter.
  • Joe Nathan is in Nashville talking to teams at the Winter Meetings, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  Nathan underwent Tommy John surgery last April and is hoping to be ready to pitch by midseason.  Rosenthal speculates that the former star closer could receive a contract that pays him a low base salary in 2016 with a higher guaranteed salary or a club option in 2017.  It will be quite a comeback for Nathan if he’s able to overcome his second Tommy John procedure for a return at age 41.
  • The Rangers, one of Nathan’s former teams, spoke with him today in what MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan described as a “courtesy meet.”
  • Though the Twins have never signed a reliever from outside the organization to a multi-year contract under GM Terry Ryan’s tenure, Ryan tells reporters (including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that he’s “not opposed” to doing so “if it was a necessity of getting the guy we had confidence in and a need that we have.”  The Twins have been linked to several big-name relievers (Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Tony Sipp) who have either already signed or likely will require multi-year guarantees.
  • Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava told reporters (including MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm) that his team was made contact with many of the notable relievers who have already come off the board.  “I wouldn’t say [we were] close, but we were engaged with some of the guys that signed,” LaCava said.
  • Upgrading the bullpen “will be our primary focus the rest of our time here” at the Winter Meetings, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters, including MLB.com’s Greg Johns.

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

Tigers Decline Nathan’s Option, Add Cessa To 40-Man Roster

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The Tigers announced on Tuesday that they’ve declined their $10MM option on right-hander Joe Nathan and added pitching prospect Luis Cessa to the 40-man roster. Nathan, who underwent Tommy John earlier this year, will receive a $1MM buyout. Nathan said back in April that he planned to undergo the lengthy rehabilitation process that came with the surgery with the goal of again pitching in the Major Leagues.

Nathan was a high-profile signing by now-former Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski prior to the 2014 season. Detroit signed the longtime Twins closer to a two-year, $20MM contract in spite of his advanced age, but Nathan was unable to replicate the All-Star form that he showed with the Twins or with the Rangers. Nathan posted a 4.81 ERA in his age-39 season in 2014 and pitched just one-third of an inning in 2015 before going down with a torn tendon and ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The 40-year-old seems like a candidate for a minor league deal this winter, but he could conceivably wait to sign until midseason, when he’s further along in his rehab, in hopes of securing a big league deal.

As for Cessa, the 23-year-old was one of two right-handed pitching prospects acquired from the Mets in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes. (Michael Fulmer was the other.) Cessa would’ve been Rule 5 eligible this winter and needed to be added to the 40-man roster in order to be protected, so it was only a matter of time as to when his contract was selected by the Tigers. Cessa split his age-23 season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, logging a 4.52 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 139 1/3 innings. He currently ranks sixth among Tigers farmhands, per MLB.com.

Injury Notes: Medlen, Mesoraco, Bailey, Fernandez, Rendon, Janssen, Verlander, Nathan

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Injuries remain perhaps the largest driver of needs in the early part of the season — a topic that MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I explored in today’s podcast with respect to starting pitching. Let’s have a look at some key injury situations around the game:

  • Rehabbing Royals starter Kris Medlen is headed to extended Spring Training to begin throwing against live batters, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. That leaves him on track for a rehab assignment in May. Kansas City has $8.5MM riding on the righty’s ability to return to form after his second Tommy John surgery.
  • The Reds are missing two key cogs in backstop Devin Mesoraco and righty Homer Bailey. As Michael Hunt reports for MLB.com, manager Bryan Price says that Mesoraco — still not on the DL despite a 17-game absence from his usual catching duties — is still not ready “to try it out just yet,” adding that Mesoraco is “coming along slowly.” There are longer-term concerns with regard to Bailey, of course, and surgery is said to be on the table. “We’re probably going to know in the next one-to-two days what our plans are with Homer,” Price said. “You spend a lot of time when you make a diagnosis, fact-finding and making sure everything you see is as it appears. That’s been the time consumer, making sure it is what we think it is and finding the best way to treat it.”
  • Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, of course, and recently faced hitters in a live BP session for the first time. You can check out the video of his outing, courtesy of FOX Sports Florida.
  • After a pause in his rehab, Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon is preparing for another Double-A appearance in the coming days, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. The issue has not been with his knee, which caused him to hit the DL to start the year, but with tightness in his side. That’s good news for the club, obviously, as is the fact that reliever Casey Janssen appeared in an extended spring game. He is set to begin his own run up through the minors in short order, per Ladson.
  • Injured Tigers starter Justin Verlander is set for a third MRI on his right triceps area early next week, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports (Twitter links). Meanwhile, reliever Joe Nathan underwent his Tommy John procedure yesterday, Fenech tweets, with Nathan saying that it went well. It figures to be a long road back for the 40-year-old, but indications are that he’ll try to return to the big leagues.

Joe Nathan Out For Year With Torn UCL & Tendon

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10:38am: Nathan doesn’t appear to be considering retirement at this time, telling reporters (including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press) that “I am preparing myself to be a major league player again.  That is my goal.”

9:02am: Tigers righty Joe Nathan has torn the ulnar collateral ligament as well as a tendon in his right elbow, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. He will undergo surgery and miss the rest of the season, the team announced.

Nathan, 40, opened the year as Detroit’s closer despite a challenging 2014 season in which he posted a 4.81 ERA. He struck out just 8.4 batters per nine while walking 4.5 per nine, both of which were the worst marks of his career since he moved to the pen.

That was obviously not the output that the Tigers hoped for when they promised Nathan $20MM over two years through free agency. The club does hold a $10MM option for next season, but seems highly likely to instead pay a $1MM buyout at this juncture.

Nathan will undergo Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career, this time with the added complication of the tendon damage to account for. While it may be an uphill road at his age, that news seemingly indicates that there is at least some possibility that Nathan will attempt to resume his career.

Detroit probably did not expect Nathan to resume his once-dominant form in the closer’s role this year, but surely hoped he would at least be a valuable contributor and presence in the pen. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained in his review of the club’s offseason, the relief corps was a major question mark entering the year for the Tigers, and the team is certainly shaping up as a future acquirer of bullpen arms in the season’s early going.

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