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Joe Nathan

Free Agent Closers’ Usage

By Dan Mennella | October 22, 2011 at 10:08pm CDT

The upcoming class of free agents figures to present an interesting study in the way teams are evaluating relievers these days. After Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, many of the most recognizable names are closers or relievers who have previously closed.

Modern analysis suggests it's foolish to invest heavily in relief pitchers due to their limited contributions and volatility in year-to-year production. But someone has to get those crucial late-inning outs, and the temptation for a team that thinks it's a contender to throw a lot of money at a guy who's coming off a year in which he posted a minuscule ERA or eye-popping strikeout rate is often too great.

Undoubtedly, suitors will use a variety of criteria to evaluate free-agent closers, one of which will be usage. Because usage can encompass so many things — innings, appearances, pitches, "high-stress" pitches, and so on — it's tough to say which is the most accurate reflection of a pitcher's workload; of course, this debate continues on for starters, too.

During the season, with the launch of CloserNews.com, we began keeping an eye on relievers who had pitched on three (and four) consecutive days, as that seems to be the breaking point for when most relievers must be rested. We've tallied that up here in a spreadsheet, along with a few other measures (standard and otherwise) of reliever usage, for the upcoming class of free-agent closers.

The objective here isn't to make any bold proclamations based on who threw the most innings; I may as well pen the inevitable mea culpa right now if it were. Rather, there are some interesting tidbits of note here, a few things to file away as these relievers ready themselves for free agency and teams prepare to bid.

  • Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero were the only two of this group to pitch on four consecutive days in 2011. Bell is the only one to do it twice.
  • Bell's abundance of pitches certainly seems to correspond with his dip in strikeout rate (7.32 K/9 in 2011 vs. 9.22 for career). Looks like he was having trouble putting away hitters, at least relative to his past performances.
  • Francisco Rodriguez paced the group by pitching on three consecutive days six times. 
  • Heavy usage is not unusual for K-Rod, though. He's pitched fewer than 65 innings only once in his nine full big league seasons, the red herring due to an off-field incident in 2010.
  • Info was culled from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.
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Uncategorized Brad Lidge Chad Qualls Francisco Cordero Francisco Rodriguez Frank Francisco Heath Bell Jason Isringhausen Joe Nathan Jon Rauch Jonathan Broxton Jonathan Papelbon Jose Valverde Kyle Farnsworth Matt Capps Rafael Soriano Ryan Madson

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Twins Notes: Thome, Nathan, Cuddyer

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 4, 2011 at 10:20pm CDT

Twins general manager Bill Smith answered questions from Minnesota’s season ticket holders on a conference call tonight and Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has the details on what we should expect from the club this offseason: 

  • The Twins are looking for starting pitching, bullpen help and a backup catcher who can contribute offensively.
  • It’s unlikely that Smith will try to re-sign Jim Thome, who collected his 600th career home run with the Twins before finishing the season in Cleveland.
  • Even if the Twins don’t pick up Joe Nathan’s $12.5MM option for 2012, they’re interested in bringing him back next year. The right-hander has expressed a willingness to stay in the Minnesota organization.
  • Though they’ll consider internal shortstop candidates such as Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe and Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins could acquire a shortstop from outside of the organization.
  • The Twins have had some talks with prospective free agent Michael Cuddyer and hope to re-sign him. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined Cuddyer's free agent stock last month.
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Minnesota Twins Jim Thome Joe Nathan Michael Cuddyer

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AL Central Notes: Cuddyer, Indians, White Sox

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 28, 2011 at 9:20pm CDT

The Twins finish the season with 99 losses, their most since 1982, and will officially select second in next year’s draft. Here's a sampling of links from the AL Central on the night that Minnesota avoided loss #100:

  • Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com that he'd like to have free agents Michael Cuddyer and Joe Nathan back in 2012 (Twitter links). MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes examined Cuddyer's free agent stock earlier in the month.
  • The Indians announced that Sandy Alomar Jr. will become the club's bench coach in 2012. Tim Tolman, who was Manny Acta's bench coach this year, will transition into another role because of health reasons.
  • White Sox GM Kenny Williams told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that he "absolutely" has a preferred candidate to succeed Ozzie Guillen as manager. Alomar Jr., Rays bench coach Dave Martinez and even Red Sox manager Terry Francona are candidates for the job, according to Van Schouwen.
  • The White Sox wanted Logan Morrison from the Marlins for Guillen, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Chicago relented because the Marlins were prepared to offer Bobby Valentine the job if they didn't get Guillen (Twitter link).
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Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins Bobby Valentine Joe Nathan Logan Morrison Michael Cuddyer

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Twins Notes: Payroll, Cuddyer, Kubel, Nishioka

By Mark Polishuk | September 15, 2011 at 10:56pm CDT

MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger covered a few hot stove topics in his recent Twins mailbag piece, and here are some of the highlights….

  • GM Bill Smith "has indicated the club is going to try to sign at least one of" free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.  The latest Elias rankings show Cuddyer is a Type A free agent and Kubel is a Type B, so Cuddyer could net the Twins an extra draft pick if they let him walk.
  • There has been no talk of reducing the Twins' $113MM payroll from last season.  In his look at the team's arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes speculated that Minnesota could have up to $30MM to spend this winter if it planned to stay at the $113MM figure.  That would be more than enough to sign both Kubel and Cuddyer if the team so desired.
  • That money could also be spent on a high-profile free agent, though Bollinger notes that isn't the Twins' style.  He believes that besides Kubel or Cuddyer, the club will focus on infield depth and rebuilding the bullpen.
  • Joe Nathan "has expressed a willingness to remain with the organization" and we heard last week that the Twins were also interested in keeping Nathan in the fold.  This would likely require signing Nathan to a new free agent contract, since the Twins will almost surely decline Nathan's $12MM option for 2012.
  • Minnesota will probably keep Tsuyoshi Nishioka and have him compete with Trevor Plouffe for the shortstop job next season.  Bollinger notes that Nishioka's experience at both short and second base would make him a good candidate as a utilityman.
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Minnesota Twins Jason Kubel Joe Nathan Michael Cuddyer Tsuyoshi Nishioka

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Heyman On Pujols, Huntington, C.J. Wilson

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 12:39pm CDT

SI's Jon Heyman leads his latest column with a discussion of the Albert Pujols situation, which is due to flare up once the season ends.  Heyman's sources say the Cardinals are "not overly confident" about retaining Pujols.  Heyman hears the Cardinals are not inclined to increase their offer much from nine years and around $210MM, although the SI writer thinks the team could reduce the number of years to boost the average annual value past the $23MM range.  Heyman hears Pujols is "not overly thrilled" that the Cardinals' offer last winter wouldn't place him in the top ten among MLB player salaries, though by my count there are only five players currently averaging $23MM or more as their AAV.

Heyman has plenty more musings on the Pujols topic in the column; here are a few other highlights…

  • The Pirates intend to extend the contract of GM Neal Huntington.  He says the Bucs have waited for the draft and trade deadlines to pass.  Huntington was hired four years ago.
  • "There are some who could see" Rangers ace C.J. Wilson "wanting to go to his native Southern California."  Heyman views the Angels as a threat for Wilson.
  • Heyman says Angels people suggest they would have been willing to resume extension talks with Jered Weaver next year if they hadn't reached a deal by the team's deadline this year.  
  • The Twins are interested in re-signing reliever Joe Nathan, though they won't be picking up his $12MM option.
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Los Angeles Angels Minnesota Twins Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Albert Pujols C.J. Wilson Jered Weaver Joe Nathan

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Cafardo’s Latest: Fielder, Nathan, Hart, Mauer

By Zachary Links | September 4, 2011 at 8:59am CDT

One major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that a lot of lefty relievers were blocked by teams and never got through waivers in August.  The price tag on most of them was steep so most teams bit the bullet and decided to go with what they had.  The Giants were one of those clubs as GM Brian Sabean opted to stick with Javy Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt.  Here are some other highlights from Cafardo's column..

  • The Mariners re-upped GM Jack Zduriencik this week and Cafardo wonders if Seattle will be in the mix with Prince Fielder this offseason, even though they already have Justin Smoak at first.  It's hard to predict how much the M's will be willing to spend and it's possible that the four-year, $36MM deal given to Chone Figgins in December 2009 could make ownership gun-shy.
  • The Twins didn’t seem to have anything major working for Joe Nathan at the deadline, but they asked him to waive his trade-veto rights just in case and Nathan declined.  Nathan's future with the club is uncertain as he heads into free agency but he has a shot at staying if he accepts a hometown discount.  It's unlikely that the Twins will pick up his $12MM option this winter.  The club can buy him out for just $2MM.
  • Cafardo writes that Brewers rightfielder Corey Hart would fit nicely with the Red Sox.  However, it seems likely that they'll lose Fielder this summer so they probably won't entertain a deal involving Hart. 
  • Twins GM Bill Smith says that Joe Mauer will be a catcher for the foreseeable future, but he continues to leave the door open for a possible shift of positions down the road.  There are also no plans for the Giants to move Buster Posey elsewhere, according to Sabean.
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Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Buster Posey Corey Hart Joe Mauer Joe Nathan Prince Fielder

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Players Who Cleared Waivers

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 31, 2011 at 5:05pm CDT

This is a running list of players who have cleared waivers, based on published reports. Once a player clears waivers, he can be traded to any team (barring a no-trade clause). This list can always be found in the sidebar under MLBTR Features. Player names are linked to the source articles.

Updated 8-30-11 at 10:56pm

Starting pitchers

  • Aaron Harang, Padres - Harang's ERA is a respectable 3.92 with 6.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
  • Dontrelle Willis, Reds – Willis has bounced back with the Reds, posting a 4.10 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, and 56.8% groundball rate in 52 2/3 innings.
  • Carlos Zambrano, Cubs – Zambrano cleared waivers prior to being placed on the disqualified list.  He has a short fuse, lousy stats, and over $22MM remaining on his contract through next year.
  • Rodrigo Lopez, Cubs – Not surprising to see the journeyman clear waivers.
  • Chris Capuano, Mets – Capuano owns a 3.74 SIERA as of August 14th and earns only $1.5MM plus incentives, so it's hard to see why a few teams didn't place claims.
  • Bronson Arroyo, Reds – His peripheral stats haven't changed much, but Arroyo has a 5.31 ERA as of August 15th.  $15MM of his $35MM contract is deferred through 2021 without interest.  The deferrals are voided if he's traded, however.  At any rate, expect Arroyo to stay put.
  • Bruce Chen, Royals – Chen has his moments, but it's not surprising to see him clear waivers.
  • Jason Vargas, Mariners – Like many of the starters here, Vargas' fastball wouldn't break a window.  But he has less than a million bucks left on his contract this year and is under team control through 2013.  He'd fit nicely at the back end of several rotations.    
  • Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals – His three starts this season were his first in over two years, so it's understandable that contenders wouldn't jump to claim him.
  • Tom Gorzelanny, Nationals – Booted to the bullpen last month, the 29-year-old flyballing southpaw has posted strong strikeout rates in recent years but can't hold a rotation job.
  • Ted Lilly, Dodgers – He always has strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, but is prone to the longball.  With over 82% of his $33MM contract remaining ($27MM+), it's no surprise he cleared waivers.

Relievers

  • Joe Nathan, Twins - Nathan won't be traded, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
  • Chad Qualls, Padres – Qualls is enjoying a bounce-back season, though his strikeout rate dipped to 5.3 K/9 this year.
  • Bill Bray, Reds – Bray has been decent this year, and a little tougher against lefties.  He'll be arbitration eligible for the second time this offseason.
  • Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers – A dominant reliever last year, Kuo has dealt with a back injury and anxiety disorder as his control has eluded him.
  • Huston Street, Rockies – Between a recent triceps injury and the $9MM+ owed to him through 2012, Street was expected to clear.
  • Brian Fuentes, Athletics – He's owed over $6MM through next year, and has been mediocre for the A's.
  • Jon Rauch, Blue Jays – Rauch is affordable, but he's on the DL for an appendectomy and wasn't great before that.
  • Mike Gonzalez, Orioles – Gonzalez has been dominant in August, and against lefties.  The problem is that he's still owed almost a million bucks.
  • Kevin Gregg, Orioles – Gregg might be the worst reliever holding down a closer's job, and he's owed at least $6.4MM through next year.
  • John Grabow, Cubs – He's been ineffective even against lefties, and he has over $700K remaining.
  • D.J. Carrasco, Mets – The Mets signed Carrasco to a two-year deal in December – their biggest acquisition of the offseason - but optioned him to Triple-A in April.  He stayed there until mid-June.

Position players

  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs – In July, Ramirez's agent said that his client would consider an August deal but he has since had a change of heart.  The Cubs hold an option on Ramirez's deal worth $16MM.
  • Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – This one was also obvious.  SI's Jon Heyman notes on Twitter that the Cubs are willing to pay a "major, major chunk" of the $58.35MM owed to the left fielder through 2014.
  • Lance Berkman, Cardinals – Berkman has said he hopes to re-sign with St. Louis after the season, when he hits free agency.  Still, it's a surprise to see him clear waivers.
  • Ryan Theriot, Cardinals - Theriot earns $3.3MM this year and will be a non-tender candidate after the season.
  • David Wright, Mets - It's surprising that Wright cleared waivers, but it doesn't mean the Mets have interest in dealing him. Wright earns $15MM next year and can void a $16MM club option for 2013 if traded.
  • Conor Jackson, Athletics – Olney notes that the Red Sox asked about the light-hitting 1B/LF/RF, but there doesn't seem to be any traction there.
  • David DeJesus, Athletics – DeJesus has had a rough year but could at least be useful against right-handed pitching.
  • Hideki Matsui, Athletics – The Athletics have several waiver trade candidates, and Matsui's hot second half and low salary (owed less than $2MM the rest of the season) could make him a popular target.
  • Jason Bay, Mets – With Bay being owed at least $38.8MM through 2013, this was expected.  It's only been 12 games, but Bay is at least having his first good month of 2011.
  • Willie Harris, Mets – The versatile Harris has less than $200K left on his contract.
  • Angel Pagan, Mets – It's been a dismal year for Pagan, who may be in line for a non-tender after the season.
  • Carlos Lee, Astros – No surprise here, as the 35-year-old is hitting .263/.321/.417 and is owed almost $23MM through next year.  El Caballo's ten-and-five rights kick in after the season.
  • Johnny Damon, Rays – Damon blocked an August trade last summer and 12 months later he's a candidate to be traded once again.

Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.

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Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Kansas City Royals Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Aaron Harang Alfonso Soriano Angel Pagan Aramis Ramirez Bill Bray Brian Fuentes Bronson Arroyo Bruce Chen Carlos Lee Carlos Zambrano Chad Qualls Chien-Ming Wang Chris Capuano Conor Jackson D.J. Carrasco David DeJesus David Wright Dontrelle Willis Hideki Matsui Hong-Chih Kuo Huston Street Jason Bay Jason Vargas Joe Nathan John Grabow Johnny Damon Jon Rauch Kevin Gregg Lance Berkman Mike Gonzalez Rodrigo Lopez Ryan Theriot Ted Lilly Tom Gorzelanny Willie Harris

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Joe Nathan Would Consider Trades

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 25, 2011 at 1:09pm CDT

Joe Nathan has been a member of the Twins’ bullpen since Minnesota traded for him late in 2003, but he’d consider moving on under the right circumstances. He told Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities that he’d look at possible deals on a case by case basis.

"It's something I would consider," Nathan said, explaining that he’s intrigued by the possibility of pitching in a playoff race. "It's not something I would rule out." 

Nathan, 36, has ten and five rights, so he can block any trade. He has a 4.79 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 35 2/3 innings since returning from 2010 Tommy John surgery. The four-time All-Star earns $11.25MM this year and the Twins have a $12.5MM option for his services in 2012 ($2MM buyout). 

Given that over $4MM remains on Nathan's contract including the buyout, it seems likely that he would clear waivers if he hasn't already. He doesn't currently project as a ranked free agent, so draft pick compensation doesn't figure to be a factor for the Twins.

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Minnesota Twins Joe Nathan

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Heyman On Reyes, Ortiz, Cole, Twins

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 10, 2011 at 11:51am CDT

The market for Jose Reyes should still be strong after the season, Jon Heyman writes at SI.com. MLB executives tell Heyman that the Giants, Cardinals, Tigers, Angels, Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees and Mets could be fits for the shortstop in terms of finances and positional need. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors…

  • Yankees people suggest they’re unlikely to pursue Reyes and Red Sox people say they don’t expect to spend big on a position player this winter.
  • The Red Sox haven’t discussed a new deal with David Ortiz, though they’re confident that they’ll be able to re-sign him after the season. Ortiz has expressed interest in a multiyear deal for a while, but the Red Sox don’t want to guarantee more than one year.
  • First overall draft pick Gerrit Cole is looking to approach Stephen Strasburg’s $15.1MM bonus and top Mariners pick Danny Hultzen is looking for $13MM plus money for school, Heyman reports. Keep track of which top picks have signed here.
  • The Twins appear to want to keep Joe Nathan when he hits free agency after the season, but they’ll probably let Matt Capps sign elsewhere.
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Boston Red Sox Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Danny Hultzen David Ortiz Gerrit Cole Joe Nathan Jose Reyes Matt Capps

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MLBTR At FanGraphs: The Twins’ Bullpen

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | March 8, 2011 at 3:17pm CDT

I'm writing a series of guest posts at FanGraphs, one of the first places baseball fans go for top analysis and stats. Today, I point out that Joe Nathan and Matt Capps could hit free agency after the season and explain why I don't see both pitchers leaving the Twins.

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Minnesota Twins Joe Nathan Matt Capps

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