Mets Outright Joey Lucchesi
Mets left-hander Joey Lucchesi went unclaimed on waivers and was assigned outright to the team’s Triple-A roster in Syracuse, per their transaction log at MLB.com. He was designated for assignment last week when the Mets acquired righty Phil Maton from the Rays.
Lucchesi has more than three years of big league service time and thus has the right to reject the assignment in favor of free agency, but he’s still a couple months shy of the five years of service he’d need to retain the remainder of his $1.65MM salary upon rejecting an outright. As such, he’ll likely accept and head back to Syracuse, where he’s already spent the bulk of the 2024 season.
Lucchesi, 31, came to the Mets as part of the 2021 three-team trade better known for sending Joe Musgrove to San Diego and David Bednar to Pittsburgh. New York shipped catching prospect Endy Rodriguez to the Pirates as part of that deal and netted Lucchesi from the Friars. He missed the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery but has been a frequently used depth arm for the Mets in three other seasons with the organization.
In 89 1/3 frames as a Met, Lucchesi has pitched to a 3.93 ERA with a 20.1% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and 0.91 HR/9. He’s pitched just 4 1/3 MLB frames this season and has otherwise spent the year in Triple-A, where he’s logged 83 2/3 innings with a 4.20 earned run average. He’s fanned 17.9% of his opponents there and registered a 9.7% walk rate.
Even with top starter Kodai Senga on the injured list for the entire season to date, the Mets haven’t found too many opportunities for Lucchesi. Veterans Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea have combined to start 55 of the team’s games. Offseason trade pickup Adrian Houser started seven games but has moved to a multi-inning role in the bullpen. David Peterson and Tylor Megill, both longtime depth options alongside Lucchesi, have started eight games apiece — as has top prospect Christian Scott. Twenty-six-year-old righty Jose Butto has started seven.
It’s a solid group of rotation options, particularly with Senga trending toward a return. Lucchesi will now stick around and provide further depth in the event that injuries hit the staff harder in the second half than in the first. If he’s not added back to the 40-man roster between now and season’s end, he’ll have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent (as is the case for all players with three-plus years of MLB service who are outrighted off a 40-man roster and not re-selected).
Mets Acquire Phil Maton From Rays
The Mets have acquired right-hander Phil Maton from the Rays, per announcements from both clubs. The Rays will receive a player to be named later or cash considerations. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said the club is taking on all of Maton’s remaining salary, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. The Mets designated left-hander Joey Lucchesi for assignment to get Maton onto their 40-man roster. The Rays recalled right-hander Manuel Rodríguez to take Maton’s place on their active roster.
Maton, 31, signed with the Rays as a free agent in the offseason. The two sides agreed to a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee, in the form of a $6.25MM salary and a $250K buyout on a $7.75MM club option for 2025.
Thus far, that deal hasn’t played out the way the Rays had hoped. Maton has tossed 35 1/3 innings, allowing 4.58 earned runs per nine. He has struck out just 19.7% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 11.8% clip. His 49.5% ground ball rate is strong but he’s also allowed six home runs on the year, a rate of 16.2% per fly ball.
That performance is significantly worse than what Maton provided in recent seasons. From 2020 through 2023, with Cleveland and Houston, he tossed 220 innings with a 3.93 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 40.4% ground ball rate. He was also quite good at avoiding damage, with his average exit velocity being among the best in the league in his career.
The Mets are essentially buying low in this deal, getting a veteran reliever without giving up any prospect talent. Perhaps that will change if the PTBNL turns out to be a player of significance, but they may be effectively buying Maton.
The bullpen has been the biggest issue for the Mets this season. Their relievers have a collective 4.16 ERA, which is in the bottom half of the league. A couple of their better relievers have been lost to season-ending elbow surgeries, with Brooks Raley and Drew Smith both done for the year. Sean Reid-Foley and Shintaro Fujinami are also on the injured list due to shoulder issues.
Despite those bullpen struggles, the club has stayed in the playoff race. They are currently 44-45, just 2.5 games back of the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. It was reported last week that the club was going into the deadline with a buyer’s mentality and could focus on bullpen help, with this move fitting into that framing.
Obviously, the Mets will be banking on Maton’s struggles this year being a bit of a blip and he’s already shown some positive signs of a turnaround. After a four-run outing on June 9, he was sitting on an ERA of 6.56. But over the past month, he has only allowed one earned run in 12 innings, striking out 11 opponents while giving out just one walk. Even if he can’t fully maintain that level of dominance, it’s not unreasonable to expect something better than his season-long numbers.
For the Rays, they have been doing some modest selling of late, though nothing that would necessarily tank their chances of competing here in 2024. They flipped starter Aaron Civale to the Brewers, netting a prospect and some cost savings. But that didn’t really downgrade the rotation as they were able to call up Shane Baz to take Civale’s rotation spot. They are 44-46 and 5.5 games back in the playoff race, giving them a chance of climbing back into it.
Now they have been able to shed a bit more money, getting rid of a player that has largely been underperforming on the season, recent hot streak notwithstanding. The Rays are generally quite good at finding or developing relievers and Rodríguez could fill in for Maton, as he has a 2.79 ERA in the majors this year and a 1.09 mark in Triple-A.
Speaking of that money, the Mets will be taking on more than the Rays are saving, thanks to the competitive balance tax. Maton is still owed about $2.74MM on his salary, as well as the $250K buyout. The Rays will scrub that from their books but the Mets are a third-time CBT payor and well over the fourth and final tax threshold. That means they are paying a 110% tax on any additional spending, so will be actually paying around $6MM to get Maton on the club for the final few months of the season.
Under owner Steve Cohen, the Mets have been pretty unafraid of spending money and are once again flexing some financial muscle to upgrade the club. The Mets have been walking a fine line since about this time last year, looking to keep the big league club in contention without significantly harming the pipeline of young talent in the farm system and also trying to avoid adding long-term costs to their ledger. They still spent money in the offseason but limited themselves to short-term deals and this move is essentially a midseason version of that.
The cost is primarily financial but they also could lose Lucchesi. The lefty made one spot start for the big league club this year but has primarily been kept on optional assignment. He has made 15 Triple-A starts this year with a 4.20 earned run average, 17.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 53.6% ground ball rate.
Lucchesi is a decent depth option but he may have been on the road to getting squeezed off the roster anyway. He is in his final option year and will therefore be out of options next year. The Mets have also had improved rotation depth as the season has gone along. David Peterson and Kodai Senga each started the season on the injured list but Peterson has since returned and Senga recently started a rehab assignment. The Mets have also seen Christian Scott jump up from the minors and take hold of a rotation spot.
The current rotation consists of Scott, Peterson, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea, with Senga on his way back. José Buttó and Adrian Houser are currently in the big league bullpen but either could be considered rotation depth and the club also has Tylor Megill on optional assignment. That’s enough starting depth that the club is reportedly considering trading someone from that group while still trying to compete here in 2024, much like the Rays did with the aforementioned Civale deal.
Whether that comes to fruition or not, Lucchesi was largely buried in that rotation picture. The Mets have bumped him off the roster and will now have five days to see if they can work out a trade. DFA limbo can last for a week, but the waiver process takes 48 hours.
The lefty has some track record as a viable big league starter, as he posted an ERA just over 4.00 with the Padres in 2018 and 2019, logging 130 innings or more in both of those seasons. He then struggled in 2020 and got flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade in January of 2021. He required Tommy John surgery that summer and missed most of the 2021-2022 seasons. He returned to the mound last year and his results were fairly comparable to this year. He was mostly kept on optional assignment and posted a 4.74 ERA in Triple-A.
Perhaps a club in need of some starting depth will take a flier on Lucchesi since he can be optioned for the remainder of this year and can also be retained beyond this season via arbitration. But as mentioned, he will be out of options next year and will have less roster flexibility going forward. If he were to clear waivers, he could reject an outright assignment by virtue of having more than three years of service time. But since he has less than five years, electing free agency would mean walking away from the rest of his $1.65MM salary. In that instance, he would likely accept an outright assignment and stick with the Mets as non-roster depth.
Mets Designate Joey Wendle, Yohan Ramirez For Assignment
May 15: The Mets made the moves for Wendle, Vientos, Lucchesi and Ramírez official today. They also optioned right-hander José Buttó and recalled right-hander Grant Hartwig. Buttó’s option may be slightly surprising since he has a 3.08 ERA on the year, but that’s despite a 13.5% walk rate. The Mets have both Tylor Megill and David Peterson on rehab assignments and they could be options to rejoin the rotation soon.
May 14: The Mets are designating veteran infielder Joey Wendle for assignment, as first reported (on X) by Ben Yoel. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier this evening (on X) that New York was planning to recall Mark Vientos from Triple-A Syracuse before tomorrow night’s matchup with the Phillies.
That’s not the only forthcoming roster move. Dan Martin and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that New York will recall left-hander Joey Lucchesi to make tomorrow’s start. Righty reliever Yohan Ramírez will be designated for assignment as the corresponding move, according to the Post.
Wendle had a disappointing tenure in Queens. New York signed the former All-Star to a $2MM free agent deal. It was a buy-low move after he slumped to a .212/.248/.306 line in 112 games for the Marlins a year ago. Wendle wasn’t out to a much better start this season. In 18 contests, he hit .222/.243/.250 with one extra-base hit (a double). He punched out nine times and drew one walk in 37 trips to the plate.
New York signed Wendle largely for his defensive flexibility. He has generally rated as an above-average to plus defender throughout the infield in his career. He struggled on that side of the ball during his very brief stint in Queens, committing three errors in 89 innings. The Mets stuck with Wendle over Zack Short two weeks ago, but they’ll now move forward without a clear backup shortstop behind Francisco Lindor.
Swapping Vientos in for Wendle provides more offensive upside to Carlos Mendoza‘s infield. The 24-year-old is out to another nice start in Syracuse, hitting .284/.376/.500 with six homers in 31 games. While Vientos is striking out at a lofty 28.6% clip, he has consistently hit for power in parts of four Triple-A seasons. That has yet to translate to MLB success, but he’s clearly a higher-ceiling bat than Wendle at this point.
Brett Baty has been the primary third baseman in Queens. The former top prospect hasn’t hit well, turning in a .236/.299/.325 line through 135 plate appearances. He’ll stick on the roster but could lose some at-bats to Vientos, particularly against left-handed pitching. Philadelphia will turn to southpaw Ranger Suárez tomorrow, so it seems likely Vientos will get the nod at the hot corner.
Lucchesi will take the ball against Suárez in what’ll be his season debut. The southpaw has started seven games for Syracuse, working to a 2.58 ERA over 38 1/3 innings. He also had a 2.89 mark in nine big league starts last season, though he hasn’t missed many bats at either level. Lucchesi fanned 16.4% of MLB opponents last season and has a 17.8% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year.
It’s possible this proves to be a spot start. Adrian Houser was originally supposed to take the ball on Wednesday, but Sherman and Mike Puma write that plans changed when the righty warmed up for possible relief work in today’s game. While Houser didn’t enter the game, he threw enough in the bullpen to take him out of the running to start tomorrow.
That proved to be an unfortunate sequence of events for Ramírez, who cedes his roster spot to Lucchesi. This will be the third DFA of the season for the 29-year-old, who can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. It’s the second time the Mets have cut him loose. Ramírez started the year in Queens and was DFA within a few weeks. New York traded him to the Orioles and claimed him back last week after Baltimore waived him.
Around the roster shuffling, Ramírez has tossed 14 1/3 innings over 10 appearances. Despite striking out 17 of 65 opponents (a strong 26.2% rate), he has conceded 11 runs. Ramírez has mid-90s velocity and has missed bats at a roughly average level in the majors, but he has walked more than 12% of batters faced over his career.
The Mets will have a week to trade or waive both Wendle and Ramírez once they officially announce the DFAs. Wendle has more than enough service time to decline a minor league assignment while retaining his salary, so he’d very likely become a free agent if no team swings a trade for him. The moves will drop New York’s 40-man roster tally to 38.
Mets Designate Dennis Santana, Select Adam Kolarek
The Mets announced four roster moves prior to tonight’s game with the Cardinals, including the news that right-hander Dennis Santana has been designated for assignment. The roster spot was needed to make room for left-hander Adam Kolarek, whose contract was selected from Triple-A Syracuse. New York also optioned Joey Lucchesi to Triple-A and called up Vinny Nittoli.
This marks the third time that Santana has been designated this season, and on both prior occasions, he cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Syracuse. It would therefore seem likely that Santana might again choose to remain in the Mets organization, though he might more willing to decline an outright and choose free agency (as is his right, because he has been outrighted previously) at this point in the season, now that the trade deadline has passed. A team in more urgent need of pitching might be interested in Santana and give him a clearer path to the majors, if he might no longer be in the Mets’ plans for the remainder of 2023.
Santana can’t be cleanly sent to Syracuse because he is out of minor league options, which already led to two waiver claims for the veteran righty during Spring Training. The Twins claimed Santana off waivers from the Braves, and the Mets then claimed him away from Minnesota — between these moves and the fact that Santana was traded from Texas to Atlanta last November, his decisions to accept the outright assignments might also stem from a desire to just enjoy some stability after this carousel of transactions.
Santana hasn’t been particularly effective in his brief stints in New York this season, with a 5.91 ERA over nine appearances and 10 2/3 innings. Small sample size notwithstanding, the numbers aren’t too different from the 5.12 ERA Santana posted over his 139 career innings with the Dodgers and Rangers from 2018-22. The 27-year-old Santana also hasn’t pitched well at Triple-A, with a 4.91 ERA over 33 frames with Syracuse this season.
Kolarek signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers over the offseason, and L.A. briefly selected that contract to the active roster in June, resulting in one game and 1 1/3 innings of work for the left-hander during his Dodgers tenure. Los Angeles traded Kolarek to the Mets just prior to the trade deadline, and the southpaw now looks to get at least a bit of a longer look in New York’s bullpen. Best known for his time with the Rays and with the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series championship team, Kolarek had a 3.32 ERA over 116 2/3 innings from 2017-20 but then endured a pair of rough seasons pitching with the Athletics.
Mets Designate Seth Elledge For Assignment, Select Dennis Santana
According to Tim Britton of The Athletic, the Mets have designated right-hander Seth Elledge for assignment. That clears a spot on the 40-man roster for Dennis Santana, who Tim Healey of Newsday notes has been selected to the 40-man roster and recalled from Triple-A Syracuse. Healey goes on to note that left-hander Joey Lucchesi has been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Santana on the active roster.
Elledge was a 4th round pick by the Mariners in the 2017 draft. He made his MLB debut with the Cardinals in 2020, ultimately pitching to a 4.63 ERA in 23 1/3 innings of work across two seasons before being designated for assignment in October 2021. He later signed with the Braves on a minor league deal the following March, before being added to the 40-man roster in November 2022. He did not ultimately make an appearance for the Braves, as the 26-year-old was designated for assignment in April before being claimed by the Mets.
Now that he’s been DFA’d once again, the rest of the league will have the opportunity to claim Elledge off of waivers. After that, the Mets will have the opportunity to assign Elledge outright to Triple-A, though Elledge can refuse that outright assignment, as he has been assigned outright previously in his career.
Elledge’s departure clears room on the 40-man roster for Santana, who had previously appeared in seven games for the Mets prior to being designated for assignment and sent outright to Triple-A. In those seven appearances, Santana struggled to a 7.04 ERA with a 6.03 FIP in 7 2/3 innings of work, walking five while striking out 10. Prior to his arrival in New York, Santana pitched for the Dodgers and Rangers, working to a 5.12 ERA and 4.15 FIP in 139 innings of work.
Making room for Santana on the active roster is Lucchesi, who heads to Triple-A after starting yesterday’s game against the Nationals, allowing one run over two innings before the game was suspended due to inclement weather. Lucchesi departs the Mets rotation with a 4.43 ERA through five starts (22 1/3 innings). Lucchesi is looking to rebound after missing much of the 2021 campaign and all of 2022 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and figures to serve as key depth going forward for a Mets rotation that has been wrought with injuries throughout the young 2023 campaign.
Max Scherzer Given 10-Game Suspension; Will Not Appeal
7:53pm: In a surprising twist, Scherzer informed reporters this evening he’s elected not to appeal after all (video provided by SNY). The right-hander said he’d initially believed an appeal would be heard by a neutral arbitrator but later was informed it would go in front of an MLB official. (Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic specifies that special assistant to the commissioner John McHale would have heard the appeal.) As a result, Scherzer conceded he wouldn’t win and has elected not to pursue it.
He’ll begin serving his ban tonight and is ineligible to return until May 1. Because Scherzer was suspended for an on-field rules violation, the Mets are not permitted to replace him on the active roster. They’ll roll with 25 players for the remainder of the month.
6:56pm: Major League Baseball announced Thursday evening that Mets star Max Scherzer has been suspended for ten games for “violating the prohibitions on foreign substances.” He was also fined an undisclosed amount, which Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports at $10K (Twitter link).
Foreign substance ejections come with an automatic ten-game suspension, so this has seemed likely since Scherzer was thrown out of yesterday’s start against the Dodgers. Scherzer stated after yesterday’s game that he’d appeal any suspension. Heyman tweets this evening that he plans to do so. Scherzer has been adamant he was only using legally-permissible rosin, swearing on the life of his children in the process. Umpires Phil Cuzzi and Dan Bellino, however, explained after the game that Scherzer’s hand was stickier than any other they had inspected previously.
Bellino opined that Scherzer had used “something likely more than rosin” based on its stickiness. MLB’s announcement reflected a similar sentiment. “Based on the umpires’ training to detect rosin on a pitcher’s hands, they concluded that the level of stickiness during the fourth inning check was so extreme that it was inconsistent with the use of rosin and/or sweat alone,” the league wrote. MLB’s press release says umpires “appropriately ejected Mr. Scherzer from the game” at that point.
While the league apparently believes Scherzer applied an illicit substance other than rosin, its press release also points to another potential justification for the ejection/suspension. MLB points out that it sent a memo to clubs during Spring Training reminding that “when used excessively or otherwise misapplied (i.e., to gloves or other parts of the uniform), rosin may be determined by the umpires to be a prohibited foreign substance, the use of which may subject a player to ejection and discipline.” Whether because of the umpiring crew’s determination Scherzer had used a non-rosin sticky substance or the possibility the three-time Cy Young winner applied too much of the otherwise permissible rosin, the league imposed discipline.
It was reported back in June 2021 the league was planning to crack down on the use of “sticky stuff” that pitchers use to improve their grip on the baseball but also to increase spin rates. Two players were suspended not too long after that, with Héctor Santiago of the Mariners getting hit later that same month, followed by Caleb Smith of the Diamondbacks in August. No suspensions were handed out last year, but it was reported in February the league was planning to further crack down this year.
Scherzer declined comment when speaking with Mets’ reporters this evening. He said only that his camp is “working on it” in reference to fighting the ban (relayed by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). There’s sure to be more clarity on the appeals process over the next few days.
If Scherzer indeed has to sit out for a week and a half, it’ll deal another hit to a rotation already down Justin Verlander, José Quintana and Carlos Carrasco to injury. That has pushed David Peterson and Tylor Megill into the starting five alongside Kodai Senga and previously necessitated a spot start from José Butto.
Skipper Buck Showalter told reporters tonight that left-hander Joey Lucchesi will be recalled from Triple-A Syracuse to start tomorrow’s game against the Giants (via Mike Puma of the New York Post). It’ll represent Lucceshi’s first MLB action in nearly two years. He lost all of last season to Tommy John surgery.
The Mets’ Options If Jose Quintana Misses Time
The Mets entered spring training with a deep but revamped rotation. Gone were longtime ace Jacob deGrom and steady right-handers Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. In their place, the Mets signed future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, NPB star Kodai Senga and veteran lefty Jose Quintana, who had a resurgent campaign between the Pirates and Cardinals this past season.
That the first injury of the season for manager Buck Showalter’s club came from the typically durable Quintana is both unexpected and unwelcome news. The 34-year-old southpaw logged 32 starts between Pittsburgh and St. Louis in 2022, logging an excellent 2.93 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 46.4% ground-ball rate. It was a vintage Quintana showing, hearkening back to his peak years in Chicago — and it was impressive enough to land him a two-year, $26MM contract (13 times larger than the one-year, $2MM guarantee he received from Pittsburgh one winter ago).
Quintana will be out for a yet-to-be-determined period of time, however, owing to a stress fracture in his rib. There’s no sense running wild with speculation as to whether that’ll amount to weeks or months at this juncture, but at the very least, Opening Day doesn’t appear to be in the cards. Quintana exited after just one inning in his most recent Grapefruit League start due to discomfort, so this isn’t likely to be an injury he can just pitch through.
If there’s a silver lining for the Mets, it’s that even through all of the turnover in the rotation, they’ve managed to maintain a solid amount of depth beyond the projected Opening Day quintet of Max Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, Quintana and Carlos Carrasco. There were times when the team appeared open to moving Carrasco, but the early setback for Quintana highlights the importance of retaining him and so much of the other depth from which they could’ve dealt.
To that end, with what looks to be at least a short-term vacancy in the rotation, let’s run through the Mets’ options to fill the spot.
The Two Favorites
David Peterson, LHP, 27 years old
About as overqualified a sixth starter as you’ll find in the league, Peterson was the 20th overall pick in the 2017 draft and has spent parts of three seasons in the big leagues with the Mets: two of them good and the middle one (2021) quite bad. The lefty sandwiched an ugly 5.54 ERA between a pair of sub-4.00 efforts, with the end result being a solid 4.26 ERA (4.18 FIP, 4.14 SIERA) in 222 innings at the big league level.
Peterson leaned more heavily on his four-seamer and slider than ever before in 2022, dropping his sinker/two-seam usage from 26.3% in 2021 to 12.3% last season. He posted career-best totals in swinging-strike rate (12.8%), opponents’ chase rate (31.2%) and opponents’ contact rate (71.2%). It’s tempting to think that some of those gains might be from working out of the bullpen for a spell, but while Peterson had similar ERAs as a starter and a reliever, he had better strikeout and walk rates while working out of the rotation.
Fresh off a season that saw him toss 105 2/3 innings of 3.83 ERA ball with a 27.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.4% grounder rate, Peterson is the ostensible front-runner to take any early starts that Quintana might miss. Other clubs surely had interest in him this winter — particularly once the Mets had signed all three of Verlander, Senga and Quintana — but the decision to hold onto him is already paying off.
Tylor Megill, RHP, 27
If Peterson is the favorite, Megill might not be all that far behind. He made 18 respectable starts in 2021, pitching to a 4.52 ERA with more impressive strikeout and walk rates (26.1% and 7.1%, respectively). In 2022, when the Mets needed a starter, Megill stepped up and took the ball on six occasions from April 7 through May 4, pitching to a sterling 2.43 ERA with a gaudy 36-to-8 K/BB ratio in 33 1/3 innings of work. His fastball, which averaged 94.7 mph in 2021, was up to nearly 96 mph on average in 2022, and Megill suddenly looked like far more than a band-aid on an injury-marred starting staff — at least until the injury bug bit him, too.
The Mets placed Megill on the 15-day injured list with biceps inflammation on May 12, just days after he was tattooed for eight runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals. He returned on June 10, made a pair of starts that lasted 3 1/3 frames apiece (yielding a combined six runs in the process) and went back on the IL just seven days after being activated — this time due to a shoulder strain. The absence proved far more substantial this time around. Megill was transferred to the 60-day IL just 10 days after his original placement, and he remained sidelined all the way until Sept. 19.
In his career, Megill has overwhelmed right-handed opponents with a power fastball/slider combination, but his changeup has been generally ineffective, leaving him susceptible to left-handed batters. That bears out in his alarming platoon splits. Righties have been downright flummoxed by him, batting only .202/.247/.331. Lefty bats, however, have absolutely clobbered Megill at a .307/.368/.568 clip. He’ll have a chance to win the job, but if he’s going to find long-term success, he’ll need to find a better offering to neutralize opponents in platoon settings.
Longer Shots Who Could Start At Some Point In 2023
Joey Lucchesi, LHP, 29
Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Joe Musgrove from Pittsburgh to San Diego, Lucchesi made 11 solid appearances for the Mets in 2021, serving in this exact type of sixth starter role that’s now resurfaced in Queens. Eight of those appearances were starts, and the former fourth-round pick worked to a decent 4.46 ERA with a more-impressive 3.40 FIP and 3.79 SIERA. Lucchesi punched out a strong 26.1% of his opponents against a similarly strong 7.1% walk rate. He might’ve held that role down the stretch — and into 2022 — had he remained healthy, but a late-June diagnosis of a torn ulnar collateral ligament led to Tommy John surgery. Lucchesi missed the remainder of the 2021 season and all of the 2022 campaign.
Early in his career with the Friars, Lucchesi looked the part of a solid fourth starter, pitching to a 4.14 ERA in 56 starts and 293 2/3 innings from 2018-19. He’s thrown just 44 innings since that time, due primarily to injury, but he owns a 4.24 ERA in 337 2/3 big league innings. He still has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Mets can send him to Triple-A Syracuse to stay stretched out and monitor his workload if they go another route in the rotation. Given that he missed all of the 2022 season, Lucchesi is likely to have his innings capped this season, which probably works against him — especially in the early stages.
Elieser Hernandez, RHP, 27
An offseason acquisition made with an eye toward bolstering the pitching depth, Hernandez came over alongside reliever Jeff Brigham in a deal sending minor leaguers Franklin Sanchez and Jake Mangum to Miami. He’s fresh off a tough 2022 season, but the former Rule 5 pick — the Marlins selected him out of the Astros organization in 2017 — was once a promising member of the Marlins’ young core of arms. From 2020-21, he pitched 77 1/3 innings of 3.84 ERA ball with plus strikeout (26.3%) and walk (5.7%) rates.
Home runs and injuries have been a problem for Hernandez throughout his career, however. His breakout 2020 campaign was shortened by a lat strain, and his 2021 season was interrupted both by a strained quadriceps and inflammation in his right biceps. He’s only shown glimpses of his potential in the Majors, but Hernandez also sports a stout 2.86 ERA, 32.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 129 Triple-A frames spread across parts of four seasons. He has a minor league option remaining, but he could also make the club as a long reliever.
Jose Butto, RHP, 25
Butto, who’ll turn 26 in less than two weeks, made his big league debut last year when he tossed four innings but was knocked around by the Phillies, who scored seven runs against him at Citizens Bank Park. It wasn’t a great first impression, but Butto nonetheless had a strong year in the minors, logging a combined 3.56 ERA in 129 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
Scouting reports at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and FanGraphs laud Butto’s plus changeup and above-average heater, but he lacks a third offering, leading to plenty of speculation that he’ll ultimately settle in as a long reliever or swingman. There’s more upside here if he can improve either his curveball or his slider, but he’d be hard-pressed to leapfrog the names ahead of him for starts early in the season. Still, he’s already gotten his feet wet in the Majors and had success in the upper minors, so with some improvements to his secondary pitches and/or a big early performance in Syracuse, Butto could find himself making some starts at some point this year, as injuries on the big league roster necessitate.
—
As far as non-roster options go, the Mets are generally light on MLB-ready starting pitching in the upper levels of their system (beyond the 40-man names already covered above). Recent trades have thinned out some of that depth, with both J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller going to the A’s for Chris Bassitt, while Thomas Szapucki went to the Giants as part of the Darin Ruf swap. Most of the Mets’ very best prospects are position players, and the top-ranked pitchers in their system are generally multiple years from MLB readiness.
The presence of Peterson, Megill, Lucchesi, Hernandez and Butto gives the Mets ample depth from which to draw, particularly given how solid both Peterson and Megill looked at times last year. Still, pitcher performance is volatile and injuries are inevitable. If the Mets want to further cultivate some depth, there are a handful of recognizable veteran names who’ve yet to sign — Michael Pineda, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy among them. Whether that trio, or any of the other remaining starters on the market, is willing to take a minor league deal remains to be seen.
Failing that, the Mets can perhaps keep an eye on other veterans around the league who are currently on minor league/non-roster deals. Many of those pitchers have opt-out opportunities if they don’t make their current club’s roster or upward mobility clauses that allow them to leave the current organization if another team is willing to offer an immediate 40-man roster spot.
For the time being, it doesn’t appear particularly crucial for the Mets to make another addition, but a second injury in the rotation would start to leave an otherwise strong staff looking vulnerable, and there’s little harm in stockpiling depth to the extent possible.
NL Notes: Schuerholz, Braves, Astros, Mets, Dodgers
Before the Astros hired Dana Brown as their new general manager, the team also interviewed one of Brown’s co-workers from the Braves front office in special assistant of scouting operations Jonathan Schuerholz, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Schuerholz played six seasons in Atlanta’s minor league system (from 2002-07) before moving into a minor league instructor role for the next seven seasons, and then in front office since October 2014 in assistant director roles in the player development and scouting departments.
Houston’s search involved candidates with several differing levels of experience, ranging from at least one former MLB general manager in Bobby Evans to a former manager in Brad Ausmus, who has mostly worked in on-field roles apart from brief stints as a special assistant in the front office with the Angels and Padres. (Brown was the Braves’ VP of scouting, a role that won’t be filled since Nightengale writes that the team specifically tailored the job to Brown himself.) Schuerholz was one of the younger known candidates at age 42, though he comes from a noteworthy lineage — Schuerholz’s father John is a Hall-of-Fame executive known for his success in building World Series winners in Atlanta and Kansas City. The younger Schuerholz could well be a name to watch in future years as teams look to fill GM/president of baseball operations vacancies.
More from around the National League…
- With the Mets signing Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga, and Jose Quintana to fill their rotation holes this winter, in-house names like David Peterson and Tylor Megill were pushed down the depth chart, and might not even be on New York’s active roster to begin the season. “If those guys start the year in Triple-A, we have two guys that probably deserve to be in the big leagues just from their past performance and their stuff,” Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner told Mike Puma of the New York Post. That said, Hefner noted the unlikelihood of the Mets’ top five starters getting through the season in perfect health, so the team will keep Peterson and Megill stretched out and “readily available” to step into the rotation if a need arises. If they are on the big league roster, Peterson and Megill could work out of the bullpen in the interim, and Hefner said the Mets haven’t yet decided on whether Joey Lucchesi will also be used as a reliever or might be stretched out in the minors as starter depth. Lucchesi underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the 2021 season and didn’t pitch at all last year as he continued to rehab.
- The Dodgers‘ multi-positional players give the club some flexibility, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he currently views the regular lineup with Max Muncy at third base, Gavin Lux at shortstop, Miguel Vargas at second base and Chris Taylor in the outfield. Miguel Rojas, acquired via trade from the Marlins earlier this month, is being thought of as more of a utility option, offering sound defense in reserve. Vargas made his MLB debut last season and didn’t actually see any action at second base over his first 18 big league games, plus he played far more third base than second base in the minors. Still, the Dodgers clearly think highly of the top prospect’s potential, and Vargas’ .304/.404/.511 slash line in 520 plate appearances at Triple-A indicate that he is ready for a longer look in the Show.
Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023
News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.
Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.
Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.
Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021
Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.
Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021
Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022 season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.
José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively
Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.
Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021
Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.
James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021
Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.
Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021
May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.
Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021
Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021
Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.
Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021
Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.
Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021
Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.
Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022
Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.
Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022
Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.
John Means, Orioles — April 2022
Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.
Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022
Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.
Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022
Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.
Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022
Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.
Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022
Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.
Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022
Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022
Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.
September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper
These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.
Mets Release Yoan Lopez
The Mets announced they’ve released reliever Yoan López. The move frees a 40-man roster spot for infielder Danny Mendick, who has officially signed a one-year free agent contract.
It seems the López release was designed to facilitate his heading overseas. Francys Romero reported this week (Twitter link) that the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball were negotiating a deal with the Mets about buying out his contract. The Wasserman client will apparently make the jump to Japan’s highest level for the first time, securing a loftier salary than the one he’d have made if he spent much of next season shuttling on and off New York’s active roster.
López, 30 next month, has appeared in the last five MLB seasons. Formerly a high-profile international signee of the Diamondbacks, he played four seasons in the desert. The righty posted a 3.41 ERA over 60 2/3 innings in 2019 but otherwise put up subpar numbers at the MLB level. López bounced around via waivers last offseason before landing in Queens, where he worked as a depth reliever.
He appeared in eight MLB games as a Met, tallying 11 innings of eight-run ball. López threw 35 innings at Triple-A Syracuse, posting a 5.14 ERA. His underlying numbers at the top minor league level were more impressive, as he racked up grounders on over 57% of batted balls. López also struck out 23.8% of opponents against a 9.4% walk rate in Triple-A while averaging nearly 96 MPH on his fastball during his limited MLB time.
Additionally, New York announced agreement with left-hander Joey Lucchesi on a 2023 contract to avoid arbitration. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports he’ll receive a $1.15MM salary (Twitter link). That’s an identical match for this year’s salary, which isn’t surprising since the southpaw missed the whole year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He’s expected to factor in as a swingman or depth starter for New York next season, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration once more at the end of the ’23 campaign.