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The Cardinals’ Trio Of Bullpen Trade Candidates

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The Cardinals’ direction is one of the key storylines of the offseason. The franchise has made clear they’re prioritizing the future while giving more playing time to young players in 2025. They’ve pushed back on initial chatter about a complete teardown, at least in part because a couple veterans with no-trade clauses prefer to see things through in St. Louis.

Even if they’re not in a complete rebuild, the Cardinals should gauge interest on players with limited windows of contractual control. That’s especially true in the bullpen. Their star closer will get the most calls from other teams, but St. Louis has a few relievers who could come up in talks. Projected salaries are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

  • Ryan Helsley (eligible for arbitration through 2025, $6.9MM projected salary)

The Cards are down to one year of control over Helsley. If they’re not all-in for 2025, he should move either this winter or at next summer’s deadline. An offseason deal would give an acquiring team a few extra months of Helsley’s services and allow them to consider a qualifying offer when he hits free agency.

Katie Woo of the Athletic wrote last week that the Cardinals were already receiving quite a bit of interest. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch suggested the Cards may need to be “overwhelmed” to deal the righty, but they should be able to weigh multiple compelling offers.

Helsley is among the best few relievers in MLB. He’s coming off three straight fantastic seasons. Helsley broke out with a 1.25 earned run average across 64 2/3 innings in 2022. A forearm strain wiped out a few months of his ’23 campaign, but he posted a 2.45 ERA through 36 2/3 frames when able to take the mound. Helsley’s arm held up over a completely healthy season this year. He fired a career-best 66 1/3 innings with a 2.04 mark over 65 appearances.

After beginning his career in a setup role, Helsley proved himself an elite closer this past season. He led the majors with 49 saves while surrendering only four leads. He paced the National League with 62 games finished. Helsley punched out nearly 30% of opposing hitters against a tolerable 8.6% walk rate. Going back to the start of the ’22 season, he carries a 1.83 ERA with a huge 34.6% strikeout percentage through 167 2/3 innings.

Helsley has the kind of overpowering arsenal teams want in the late innings. His four-seam fastball sits above 99 MPH. Opponents had a surprising amount of success against that heater this year, but the ability to reach back for triple digit heaters makes it tough for hitters to adjust to his wipeout slider. Opponents whiffed on more than half their swings against the Helsley slider in 2024. He got swinging strikes at a 17.3% clip overall, a top 15 mark among relievers with at least 20 innings.

Alongside Devin Williams, Helsley is one of this winter’s top two bullpen trade candidates. He’d fit for any contender. Teams that already have a closer could push him into the eighth inning. Clubs like the Phillies, Rangers and Red Sox have seen their closers hit free agency. The Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles, Royals and Diamondbacks are other potential suitors.

  • JoJo Romero (eligible for arbitration through 2026, $1.9MM projected salary)

Romero has had a nice two-plus year run at Busch Stadium. Acquired from the Phillies at the 2022 deadline for utility player Edmundo Sosa, Romero has emerged as skipper Oli Marmol’s top lefty reliever. He has posted consecutive seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, turning in a career-best 3.36 mark through 59 innings this year.

There are some concerns. After striking out 28.6% of batters faced in 2023, he posted a middling 21% strikeout rate this year. Romero had a much more difficult time missing bats within the zone in 2024. That’s an issue for a pitcher who has never excelled at getting batters to chase off the plate. Romero has intriguing stuff, pairing a 94 MPH sinker with a slider and changeup. The breaking ball is by far his best offering and served as the putaway pitch for 40 of his 51 strikeouts this year.

As one might expect given that profile, Romero has been much better against same-handed hitters. Lefties have a .172/.267/.270 slash against him in his career, while right-handed hitters have teed off at a .280/.337/.472 clip. His 2024 platoon splits are just as extreme. Romero might be best suited for a situational role, but perhaps another team feels there’s a tweak they can make to get better production against righty hitters. While Romero has increased the usage on his slider in every season since 2021, he still only used it about a third of the time this year.

Romero finished the year on the injured list due to forearm inflammation. The Cardinals announced that he isn’t expected to require surgery and should have a normal offseason. Assuming that’s the case, he should attract interest.

John King (eligible for arbitration through 2027, $1.5MM projected salary)

The 30-year-old King isn’t as well known as Helsley or Romero, but he’s coming off a nice season. The southpaw turned in a 2.85 ERA through a career-high 60 innings spanning 56 appearances. King is a pure ground-ball specialist. He kept the ball on the ground at a massive 61.7% rate this year and has a career rate just north of 62%. Among the 160 relievers who threw at least 50 innings, only three (Tim Hill, Clay Holmes and Yennier Cano) had a higher grounder percentage.

King doesn’t miss bats, but he’s a situational lefty who should appeal to teams looking to deepen their middle relief group. (The Yankees make for a speculative fit considering New York’s love of relievers with plus grounder rates.) King is cheaply controllable for another three seasons and has held left-handed batters to a .250/.300/.320 slash over 308 career plate appearances. While the Cardinals aren’t under any contractual pressure to deal him, this isn’t the type of player that St. Louis would refuse to entertain in trade talks. If the Cards could pull a mid-level prospect or two, King could be on the move.

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The Cards have two other bullpen arms who’d attract interest, though they’re less likely to move. Rule 5 pick Ryan Fernandez had a strong rookie season. With five more years of team control, St. Louis probably prefers to hold him in a leverage role. Former top prospect Matthew Liberatore looks to have found a home in relief. He’s also still controllable for five seasons. The Cardinals aren’t likely to find an offer that pushes them to move the 25-year-old southpaw this early in his career.

Cardinals Option Jordan Walker

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The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned right fielder Jordan Walker and lefty Zack Thompson to Triple-A Memphis. Infielder Jose Fermin and southpaw John King are being recalled from Memphis to take their spots on the roster.

It’s been a brutal start to the season for the 21-year-old Walker, who entered the 2023 season widely considered one of the game’s top 10 prospects and debuted with a .276/.342/.445 showing as a rookie. He’s looked lost at the plate in his sophomore season, hitting just .155/.239/.259 with a 26.9% strikeout rate and no home runs in his first 67 trips to the plate. Given the magnitude of those struggles and the Cardinals’ 10-14 start to the season — fifth in the NL Central — they’ll send Walker down to try to get the promising young slugger back on track.

This isn’t the first time the Cards have sent Walker to Memphis amid some struggles at the plate. Though he made the Opening Day roster in St. Louis last season and began his career with a 12-game hitting streak, Walker slumped in the aftermath and was optioned to Triple-A in late April — both to get his bat back on track and to afford the converted third baseman some additional reps in right field. His defense remains a work in progress, but Walker returned to the big leagues on June 2 and turned in a stout .277/.346/.455 batting line with 16 home runs, an 8.8% walk rate and a 21.7% strikeout rate in his final 387 plate appearances on the season.

With Walker down in Memphis, the Cardinals will go with Alec Burleson in left field, Michael Siani in center and Lars Nootbaar in right field. It’s not the alignment the team envisioned heading into the season, but they’re still without Dylan Carlson (shoulder sprain) and Tommy Edman (recovering from wrist surgery) and have also optioned prospect Victor Scott II to Memphis in the wake of his own struggles (.085/.138/.136 in 65 plate appearances).

From a service time vantage point, Walker’s optional assignment doesn’t figure to change his free agent timeline but could potentially alter his path to arbitration. He accrued 149 days of service in 2023, setting him up to reach Super Two status following the 2025 season and reach arbitration four times rather than three. If Walker is only down for a few weeks, he’ll very likely remain on that path. If his optional assignment extends a month or more, as it did in ’23, it’s possible he could wind up falling shy of Super Two status and be on a more standard arbitration path. Either way, he’s already picked up enough service this season to reach the one-year mark, so he remains on track for free agency following the 2029 season.

Fermin’s recall to the big leagues is of some note for the Cards, given his early performance in Memphis. The 25-year-old hit just .235/.339/.255 in 61 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut and was generally credited with bottom-of-the-scale power on scouting reports. He’s torn the cover off the ball in his first 72 plate appearances this year, however, belting four homers and hitting .350/.458/.650 with 11 walks (15.3%) against just three strikeouts (4.2%). He’s chipped in six doubles and also gone 5-for-5 in stolen base attempts. It’s unlikely he can sustain that level of production against major league pitching, of course, but he’s earned the opportunity to carve out a role on the big league roster.

Thompson, 26, made two starts early in the season but was rocked for eight runs in 10 1/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen and has been working in a long relief role. The results haven’t been any better. Though he fired 3 1/3 shutout innings with six strikeouts against the Phillies on April 10, he’s followed that up with 10 runs over his next two appearances. He’ll give way to King, who allowed a run in 2 1/3 innings earlier this season and has yielded two runs in 5 1/3 Triple-A frames thus far.

Cardinals Place Riley O’Brien On 15-Day IL Due To Flexor Strain

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The Cardinals placed right-hander Riley O’Brien on the 15-day injured list, as O’Brien is dealing with a flexor strain in his right forearm.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding transaction.

The ominous-sounding nature of the injury suggests that O’Brien could be in danger of a season-threatening surgery.  Even if the strain can be managed with just rest and a normal rehab schedule rather than any kind of procedure, O’Brien is still likely looking at an absence of well beyond the 15-day minimum.  The righty has made one appearance this season, tossing an inning of relief in the Cardinals’ season-opening 7-1 loss to the Dodgers.

O’Brien has now made exactly one appearance in each of his three MLB seasons, counting his previous cups of coffee with the Reds in 2021 and Mariners in 2022.  An eighth-round pick for the Rays in the 2017 draft, O’Brien spent much of his minor league career as a starter before turning to full-time bullpen work in 2022.  With an ugly 7.03 ERA over 39 2/3 Triple-A innings in 2022, the transition wasn’t exactly smooth for O’Brien, yet he significantly turned things around with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate last season.  The right-hander posted a 2.29 ERA, 57.1% grounder rate, and a 37.7% strikeout rate in 55 innings in Tacoma, and only a 13.6% walk rate marred that otherwise sterling performance.

The Mariners weren’t moved enough to give O’Brien any time on the active roster last year, and they ended up trading him to St. Louis in early November for just cash considerations.  A minuscule 0.90 ERA over 10 Spring Training innings helped O’Brien win a spot on the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, but it will likely be some time before he is able to return to the mound.

Rangers Acquire Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton

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The Rangers continue to bolster their pitching ranks, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter links) reports that Texas and St. Louis have completed a trade to send Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Arlington.  The Cardinals will receive left-hander John King, as well as infield prospect Thomas Saggese and right-handed pitching prospect Tekoah Roby.  In the Rangers’ official announcement of the deal, it was noted that Texas also received an international bonus pool slot from the Cardinals.  To create roster space, Texas designated right-hander Joe Barlow for assignment.

With the Cards in seller mode, Montgomery and Stratton were seen as two of the likeliest players to be moved prior to the deadline, as both pitchers are free agents after the season.  Between this swap with the Rangers and the Cardinals’ move to send Jordan Hicks to the Blue Jays earlier this afternoon, it’s fair to guess that Jack Flaherty (another pending free agent) might also soon be headed elsewhere, and St. Louis could also look to some surplus position players with more team control as the Cards look to reload for 2024.

As for the Rangers, acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday and now Montgomery today throughout reinforces the team’s rotation.  Despite season-ending injuries to Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi, Texas had gotten solid results from its starters for much of the year, but some cracks have begun to show.  Most prominently, Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since July 18, and was placed on the 15-day injured list today due to a forearm strain.

It’s an ominous diagnosis for a pitcher who already has two Tommy John surgeries on his health history, and the Rangers obviously aren’t taking any chances with Eovaldi’s recovery or in their pitching staff’s ability to thrive without Eovaldi in action.  Manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) today that the team is “pretty confident” Eovaldi will be able to return after just the minimum 15 days, though Eovaldi will visit with a doctor for precautionary purposes.

Scherzer and Montgomery now join a rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning, though it remains to be seen if Texas will stick with a six-man staff.  Keeping an extra starter might be useful to help keep everyone fresh for the pennant race (and, the Rangers hope, through October), yet moving Dunning back to a relief role might also be an option.  On the other hand, Dunning has pitched quite well since his return to starting work, whereas Perez and Heaney have been much more inconsistent and Gray has been struggling over the last month.

Montgomery was already part of a notable deadline trade last year, when the Yankees sent the left-hander to the Cardinals in a one-for-one trade for Harrison Bader.  In his first full year with the Cardinals, Montgomery has a 3.42 ERA over 121 innings, though his SIERA is a less-impressive 4.30.  The southpaw has done his usual above-average job of avoiding free passes (6.9% walk rate) and limiting hard contact, though Montgomery now has a second straight season of a below-average strikeout rate (21.2%).  While Montgomery has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, his whiff rate has also taken a tumble to 24.1% in 2023 after years of much more solid results.

If Scherzer is expected to be more of a front-of-the-rotation arm, then Montgomery represents a mid-rotation starter who can be relied on to take the ball every fifth (or sixth) day and deliver respectable results.  Likewise, Stratton won’t be displacing Will Smith as the Rangers’ closer or even taking over a top set-up role, but he gives Texas another good arm for higher-leverage situtions late in games.

Montgomery and Stratton will each be reuniting with Mike Maddux, who was the Cardinals’ pitching coach from 2018-22 before moving on to join the Rangers’ coaching staff this year.  Stratton is also a known quantity to skipper Bruce Bochy, as Stratton broke into the majors in the Giants organization back when Bochy was managing the team in 2016.

Stratton is also on the move for the second straight year at the deadline, as the Pirates sent Jose Quintana and Stratton to the Cardinals last August.  Stratton’s 2022 numbers picked up considerably after that deal, and he has somewhat continued that form this season, even if his bottom-line results haven’t been reflective.  Stratton has a 4.36 ERA in 53 2/3 innings, though a 3.48 SIERA and 3.06 FIP indicate some bad luck on Stratton’s part, perhaps due to an unusually low 61.6% strand rate.

The right-hander doesn’t have the high-velocity arsenal associated with most relievers, nor are his hard-contact or walk rates anything special.  However, Stratton does bring durability in his ability to pitch multiple innings, and he has some of the most elite fastball and curveball spin rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Without any reports of money changing hands between the two teams, it looks like the Rangers will be absorbing the remainder of the 2023 salaries for Montgomery (roughly $3.5MM) and Stratton (around $1MM).  It’s not a big financial commitment to a team that has already been splurging on big-name talent over the last two seasons, and Roster Resource projects that Texas is still just barely under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.  The Rangers reportedly don’t have any issue crossing the tax threshold, so if another upgrade presents itself before Tuesday’s trade deadline, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the front office make another deal or two.

Among the players going back to the Cardinals, King is the best-known name to fans, as the lefty has a 4.27 ERA over 126 1/3 innings out of the Texas bullpen since he made his big league debut in 2020.  A grounder specialist who has a very impressive 61.7% career groundball rate, King is naturally more susceptible than most to batted-ball luck, so his huge .379 BABIP over 18 2/3 innings has been the main factor in his 5.79 ERA.

The Rangers have sent King back and forth from Triple-A on a couple of occasions this season, and he is under team control through the 2026 campaign.  The Cardinals will have the rest of the year to take a look at King and see if he might be an option for their bullpen going forward, plus in a more immediate sense King will add some left-handed depth to the St. Louis relief corps.

That said, Roby and Saggese are the bigger parts of this trade from the Cards’ perspective, as they join the three youngsters obtained in the Scherzer and Hicks deals as part of the sudden reload of the St. Louis farm system.  MLB Pipeline ranked Roby as the Rangers’ 11th-best prospect and Saggese 14th, while Baseball America had a similar tack in placing Roby 13th and Saggese 15th.

Roby was a third-round pick for Texas in the 2020 draft, and he has a 5.05 ERA over 46 1/3 innings and 10 starts at Double-A Frisco this season.  While he has cut back on his walks and home runs allowed, Roby’s strikeout rate has also tumbled during his three pro seasons, though his 25.6% mark this year is still respectable.  The scouting reports from both Pipeline and BA pinpoint Roby’s command as his biggest issue, as his overall arsenal is solid.  Pipeline gives a 55 grade (on the 20-80 scale) to all four of Roby’s pitches, though their report notes that the 21-year-old “may not have a true plus pitch” as a go-to offering.

Adding Roby will help St. Louis restock the minor league pitching ranks, while Saggese seems to fit the Cardinals’ preferred profile of a multi-positional infielder.  Saggese has mostly played second and third base over his three pro seasons, while also getting a good chunk of action as a shortstop.  He isn’t necessarily a standout defender at any position, but Pipeline liked his ability to stick at second base, and Saggese’s versatility is surely an asset as he climbs the ladder towards the big leagues.

The 21-year-old was also a 2020 draft pick (taken in the fifth round), and Saggese has done nothing but hit in the minors, including a .314/.380/.514 slash line and 15 homers over 417 plate appearances at Double-A in 2023.  The pundits note that Saggese’s aggression at the plate can sometimes backfire, yet he has shown a bit more patience this season with an 8.2% walk rate.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Designate Taylor Hearn, Select Alex Speas

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The Rangers announced Wednesday morning that they’ve designated left-hander Taylor Hearn for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to right-hander Alex Speas, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Round Rock. Texas optioned lefty John King to Triple-A in order to open a spot for Speas on the active roster.

Now 28 years old, Hearn was acquired in the 2018 deadline deal that sent reliever Keone Kela to the Pirates. The southpaw was a mainstay on the Rangers’ pitching staff from 2021-22, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. While the overall 4.89 ERA he posted in 204 1/3 innings during that time hardly stands out, Hearn has pronounced splits between his work as a starter and a reliever.

In 110 1/3 career innings out of the rotation, Hearn has been rocked for a 6.36 ERA. Like many pitchers, he’s had particularly rough struggled when turning a lineup over for a third time; opponents have batted .343/.438/.567 against him in such situations.

Out of the bullpen, however, Hearn has looked like a different and quite serviceable pitcher. He’s tallied 118 2/3 innings of relief work in the big leagues, logging a 3.94 ERA and fanning exactly one quarter of his opponents. His 11.2% walk rate out of the ’pen is well north of the league average, but Hearn has demonstrated an ability to miss bats and limit damage while averaging close to 96 mph with his heater in short stints.

He’s worked primarily out of the bullpen in Triple-A this season, posting a 3.66 ERA and a very strong 30.2% strikeout rate. Command has continued to plague Hearn in Round Rock though, evidenced by a 13.2% walk rate plus another four plunked batters in his 39 1/3 innings there.

Hearn is optionable for the remainder of the current season. That, combined with solid career marks in the bullpen, plus velocity on his fastball and a history of missing bats, could certainly lead to trade interest in the southpaw.

The Rangers will have a week to trade Hearn or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. He’s earning $1.5MM this year and has at least two more seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, so it’s feasible but certainly not guaranteed that he’d be claimed.

Taking Hearn’s spot on the roster is the 25-year-old Speas, a potential late-inning powerhouse whose trio of plus or better pitches is at times undercut by a lack of command. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked the flamethrowing righty 14th among Texas farmhands earlier this month, touting his “vicious” slider’s “absurd” movement. He’s throwing that slider or his low-90s cutter a combined 85% of the time in the minors this year, Longenhagen notes, due in part because of his struggles locating a four-seamer that can routinely hit 102 mph.

A second-round pick by the Rangers back in 2016, Speas has a ridiculous 1.00 ERA in 36 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season. He’s fanned 40.4% of his opponents against an 11.3% walk rate that represents a career-low. The walk rate would likely be higher if Speas leaned on his heater more regularly, but for now the emphasis on his slider and cutter has proven a recipe for success.

It’s increasingly common for relievers to throw their breaking pitches more than their fastballs, and while Speas is an extreme example of that, his ability to do so with success in the upper minors positions him as a potential late-inning weapon for manager Bruce Bochy.

Injury Notes: Edman, Candelario, Gausman, Sborz

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Tommy Edman was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list on July 7, as the multi-positional regular was suffering from inflammation in right wrist.  A clean MRI provided some hope that Edman could be back soon after the All-Star break, but that doesn’t look like it will be the case, as manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including MLB.com) that Edman received an injection in his wrist.  As a result, Marmol said it will be “several more days” before Edman can return.

Rotating between shortstop, second base, center field, and right field this season, Edman’s versatility and switch-hitting bat have been very helpful to St. Louis, even if his production at the plate has dropped off.  Edman had a 108 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances in 2022, but he had only a 91 wRC+ (and a .237/.303/.391 slash line) over 307 PA thus far in 2023.  It could be that the move to the outfield is hurting Edman’s hitting, as his offense has badly tailed off since the Cardinals started regularly starting him in center field in late May.  With St. Louis looking like probable sellers at the deadline, it remains to be seen how Edman might fit into what could be a remodeled mix around the diamond, though the first order of business for the 28-year-old is just to get healthy.  To be clear, there hasn’t been much trade buzz around Edman himself, and his lingering injury would certainly seem like a further obstacle to any sort of deal.

More injury updates from around baseball…

  • Jeimer Candelario is a much clearer trade candidate as the deadline approaches, but the Nationals third baseman got an injury scare of his own yesterday when he injured his thumb during a pregame fielding drill.  Manager Davey Martinez described the injury as a bone bruise, and Candelario tried to play through the pain but had to leave the game after his first at-bat.  Candelario is day to day for now, as Martinez told reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) that the infielder was hoping to be ready as soon as tonight’s game with the Cardinals.  While there’s no truly good time for an injury, the timing is particularly bad for Candelario and the Nats with the deadline approaching.  Even a minimal IL stint will likely impact the club’s chances of maximizing value in a trade, or it could scuttle the chances of a deal altogether.
  • Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman was scratched from his scheduled start today due to soreness in his left side, with Chris Bassitt instead taking the hill against the Diamondbacks.  Jays manager John Schneider told The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath (Twitter links) and other reporters that Gausman first felt the discomfort after his last start before the All-Star break, but an MRI didn’t reveal any injury.  As such, Gausman might be able to return as early as Tuesday when the Blue Jays begin a series with the Padres.  It’s no surprise that Toronto is being cautious with their ace, as a healthy Gausman (who leads all MLB pitchers with 4.0 fWAR) is critical to the Jays’ chances of reaching the postseason.
  • The Rangers placed right-hander Josh Sborz on the 15-day injured list due to right biceps tendinitis, with a backdated placement date of July 12.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Sborz has been rocked for nine earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings (four appearances) of work, spoiling what had been a quietly solid season for the righty in the Texas bullpen.  In his previous 34 1/3 innings, Sborz had posted a 2.62 ERA while limiting opposing batters to a .460 OPS.  Texas has already made an early trade for Aroldis Chapman in an attempt to shore up its inconsistent bullpen, and more relief help might be needed by the deadline if Sborz will now miss a significant amount of time.

Rangers Designate Ian Kennedy For Assignment

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The Rangers announced that they have recalled left-hander John King from Triple-A Round Rock while right-hander Ian Kennedy has been designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Kennedy, 38, spent many seasons as an effective starter for the Diamondbacks, Padres and Royals. He’s moved to a relief role in recent years with inconsistent results. He posted an ERA of 3.41 with the Royals in 2019 but saw that figure spike to 9.00 in the shortened 2020 season. He got back on track in 2021 with a 3.20 ERA between the Rangers and Phillies, then parlayed that into a $4.75MM deal with the Diamondbacks for 2022. That led to another downturn, however, as he had a 5.36 ERA with the Snakes last year.

With his recent seasons alternating between good and bad, it would have seemed superficially like Kennedy were due for a rebound this year. He returned to the Rangers on a minor league deal and cracked the Opening Day roster but has a 7.20 ERA through his first 11 outings and has now lost his roster spot in Texas.

Looking under the hood, things might not be quite as bad as that ERA seems. Kennedy has struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 6.5% walk rate. He’s allowed a .357 batting average on balls in play and has a 36.8% strand rate, both of which are on the unlucky side of average, particularly the latter figure. The league averages for those stats this year are .295 and 71.6%. Advanced metrics feel Kennedy deserved much better, including his 3.21 FIP, 3.36 xERA and 3.22 SIERA.

The Rangers will now have a week to trade Kennedy or pass him through waivers. There will likely be clubs willing to overlook the 7.20 ERA in a small sample, especially with many teams around the league dealing with various injuries amid their respective pitching staffs. Though in the event Kennedy clears waivers, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Rangers Re-Sign Dominic Leone To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve re-signed veteran reliever Dominic Leone to a minor league deal after his recent release. Texas also announced the signing of righty Robert Dugger to a minor league deal and optioned lefty John King to Triple-A Round Rock. Both Leone and Dugger have been assigned to Round Rock as well.

Leone, 31, is a veteran who has pitched in the past nine major league seasons. He has a career 3.69 ERA in 353 big league games. The past few years have been remarkably inconsistent, as he posted a bloated 8.38 ERA in the shortened 2020 season, but dropped that all the way to 1.51 in 2021. Last year, it evened out at a more reasonably 4.01 mark in 49 1/3 innings with the Giants. He struck out 23.4% of batters faced last year but also walked 10.8%.

That control has long been an issue for Leone, as he hasn’t posted a walk rate below 10% since 2018. Here in spring this year, he posted a 2.16 ERA over his eight appearances, but walked eight hitters and only struck out five. He wasn’t able to get himself a roster spot and the Rangers released him a few days ago, though they’ve evidently worked out a new pact to keep him around to get some work in Triple-A and serve as depth.

As for Dugger, 27, he has appeared in each of the past four seasons, suiting up for the Marlins, Mariners, Rays and Reds. He has a 7.17 ERA in his career over 27 games and 86 2/3 innings. Though his 6.19 ERA last year is roughly in line with his previous work, he did get an encouraging bump in the strikeout department. He had only punched out 14.4% of opponents in his first three seasons but got that up to 26.4% in 16 innings last year. Then again, he only struck out 18.4% of hitters in the minors, so that bump might be small sample noise.

It’s unclear whether the Rangers view Dugger as a starter or a reliever, but he’s done his share of both over the past few years. He can perhaps give the club a bit of depth in both areas of their roster. The starting rotation is already proceeding without Jake Odorizzi and Glenn Otto, as both are dealing with injuries, while the bullpen will be without Brett Martin for much of the season due to shoulder surgery.

Rangers Release Dallas Keuchel

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SEPTEMBER 5: Keuchel has been released, according to his transactions log at MLB.com.

SEPTEMBER 4: The Rangers announced that left-hander Dallas Keuchel has been designated for assignment.  Left-hander John King was called up from Triple-A to take Keuchel’s spot on the active roster.

Keuchel was signed to a minor league deal in late July, and his contract was officially selected to the big league roster on August 27.  Unfortunately for Keuchel, his two starts in a Texas uniform were disasters, as he allowed seven runs in each outing and has a 12.60 ERA to show for his 10 innings as a Ranger.

It has been a rough season overall for the 34-year-old, who has a 9.20 ERA over 60 2/3 cumulative innings with the Rangers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox.  Beginning the season in Chicago, Keuchel struggled to the point that he was released in late May, with the Sox eating the approximate $13MM still owed to Keuchel in the final year of his three-year, $55.5MM contract.

The D’Backs and Rangers therefore only had to pay Keuchel the prorated portion of a Major League minimum salary during his brief time on their active rosters, as the White Sox covered the rest of the bill.  It was a low-cost risk for the two clubs to see if Keuchel could benefit from a change of scenery, yet the veteran struggled at every stop.

While there has long been speculation about how long Keuchel’s ground-heavy, low-strikeout approach would continue to be successful, the lefty was still a front-of-the-rotation arm as recently as 2020, when he finished fifth in AL Cy Young Award voting in his first season with the White Sox.  However, Keuchel’s numbers already declined considerably in 2021, as he started to allow considerably more hard contact and his walk rate fell.  Those problems have only deepened in 2022, with Keuchel’s 10.2% walk rate falling in only the 20th percentile of all pitchers.

It seems a given that Keuchel will pass through waivers again, and it seems likely that the Rangers will release him rather than outright him to Triple-A.  The southpaw’s career track record could land him another minors contract during the offseason, yet as he approaches what would be his age-35 season, the possibility exists that Keuchel is simply no longer an effective Major League pitcher.  Retirement could be a possibility after 11 MLB seasons, but with that 2020 performance still so recent, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Keuchel keep grinding to see if he could get his career back on track.

Rangers’ John King Undergoes Thoracic Outlet Surgery

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Rangers reliever John King recently underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome, the team informed reporters (including Jeff Wilson). He’s expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2022.

King hasn’t pitched since July 9, landing on the injured list with what the team initially called shoulder inflammation. That he required this procedure to address the issue is a bit discouraging, since some pitchers (most prominently Matt Harvey) never regained their effectiveness after bouts with thoracic outlet syndrome. That’s not to say TOS surgery is automatically a crushing blow, however. As one example, the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly underwent a thoracic outlet procedure last September and has been durable (aside from a battle with COVID-19) and essentially as productive this season as he’d been in years prior.

The Rangers have had a below-average relief group this season, but King had been a bright spot before his injury. The southpaw frequently worked multiple innings, tossing 46 frames over 27 appearances. Despite a below-average 20.7% strikeout rate, King posted a 3.52 ERA thanks largely to his ability to keep the ball on the ground. The sinkerballer racked up grounders at a 57% clip, a top thirty mark among the 320 relievers with 20+ innings pitched.

That performance was impressive enough that King was initially reported to be part of the Yankees’ deadline acquisition of Joey Gallo. He was eventually removed from the deal as part of a later reshuffling, with Joely Rodríguez heading to the Bronx instead. (King was already on the IL at the time and didn’t return to pitch this season).

Assuming he’s ready for Spring Training as expected, King should have the inside track at landing a season-opening spot in the Texas bullpen. The 27-year-old isn’t slated to reach arbitration eligibility until after the 2023 campaign at the earliest, and future optional assignments could push back that timeline even further.

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