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Odds & Ends: Weeks, Blue Jays, Daisuke, Vazquez

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Links for Wednesday, after a roller coaster win by Joey Votto and the Reds…

Quiet Deadline For Blue Jays

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Many of the best trade chips in baseball play for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the team held onto all of them when their rivals didn’t meet the club’s asking price. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Jose Bautista and John Buck remain in Toronto for one simple reason: in the end, no team presented GM Alex Anthopoulos with an overwhelming offer.

“I don’t think we were that close today,” Anthopoulos said. “There were things we had on the table that were available to us, but not enough to make us make a trade.”

A year ago today, the Jays held onto the biggest trade chip in baseball: Roy Halladay. This season Anthopoulos targeted the same kinds of players that his predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi did.

“The greatest challenge we have is getting those elite players,” Anthopoulos said. “We’re always going to continue to shoot high and try to get those impact players.”

Multiple teams considered Scott Downs an impact reliever. The 34-year-old may have been the best left-handed reliever available, but he remains a Blue Jay. After a few months, the rumors and speculation became a bigger part of everyday life for Blue Jays relievers.

“It started to,” Downs said. “I can’t lie, it started to a little bit, but it’s a business.”

Downs, Frasor, Gregg and Buck could potentially bring the Blue Jays draft picks in the 2011 draft. If the four players maintain their current standings in the Elias rankings and all turn down offers of arbitration from the Blue Jays, the team could be working with as many as six extra picks in next year’s draft. It’s a big ‘if,’ but one the Blue Jays were keenly aware of.

“It’s absolutely part of the criteria,” Anthopoulos said. “You look at players that are free agents that could have compensation attached to them and you have a lot of options.”

Many teams liked Jose Bautista, but the MLB home run leader is still in Toronto. As far as he’s concerned, that’s a good thing.

“There were a lot of rumors out there,” Bautista said. “But the end result is I’m still here and this is where I wanted to be.”

The July 31st deadline means the end of non-waiver trades, but there’s still the potential for deals. Anthopoulos expects to explore trade possibilities next month, but most of his trade chips wouldn’t clear waivers. August will likely be quieter than July, but the Blue Jays are open to making deals.

“I’d say we’d be active in terms of exploring the waiver wire, talking to clubs, but in terms of actually getting a deal done, impossible to say,” Anthopoulos said. 

Odds & Ends: Padres, Oswalt, Farnsworth, Theriot

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We here at MLBTR really appreciate everyone staying up past their respective bedtimes to keep up on all of the latest rumors.  Here's some news from around the web..

Sherman on Phillies, A’s, Blue Jays

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Some of the biggest trade chips have already been moved, some contenders are dropping out of the race and few teams seem willing to take on salary. All of these factors give MLB executives the sense that this trade deadline could be a quiet one, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Lots can happen in the coming three days, so here are Sherman’s latest rumors:

  • One NL scout says the Phillies are “the most active team out there.”
  • The A’s think their young pitching will keep them in contention next year. The club expects to be able to afford a major power hitter like Adam Dunn this offseason.
  • The Blue Jays tell rival teams that they are content to keep Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor and John Buck. The Jays claim they’d offer arbitration to all four, but some teams believe they’re just posturing. Frasor (barely) and Downs project as Type A free agents, while Buck and Gregg project as Type Bs. Click here for the details, but essentially the Jays could obtain six top picks in 2011 if all four players turn down arbitration to sign elsewhere.
  • Toronto officials say Downs would earn a contract comparable to Darren Oliver ($3.5MM) or Jeremy Affeldt ($4.5MM) if he accepts arbitration.
  • Twelve teams have called on Downs and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes on Twitter that the Dodgers are a “longshot” to acquire the lefty. Ned Colletti & Co. have interest in the Jays’ relievers, according to Rosenthal.

Teams Scouting John Buck?

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A slew of scouts attended last night's Blue Jays-Royals game in Kansas City, reports Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.  The Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were represented.  The Reds and Mets scouted the Jays over the weekend. Clearly some of this scouting extends beyond normal coverage.  Toronto's roster is littered with trade candidates: Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, Jose Bautista, and Lyle Overbay.  But several of the aforementioned teams need catching and may have been on hand to observe All-Star catcher John Buck.

Buck had a pair of doubles in the contest, bringing his line to .278/.309/.504 through 265 plate appearances.  He's flashed power before, but in this season he's slugged at least .462 in every month.  Buck recently turned 30 and will be a free agent after the season.  He just sneaks in as a Type B right now.  It's not difficult to imagine Buck receiving and turning down an arbitration offer, so his status boosts his trade value.  Asher Wojciechowski (Blue Jays) and Drew Vettleson (Rays) were compensation picks at #41 and #42 overall this year, so GM Alex Anthopoulos will presumably aim for a player or package he likes more than that level of draft pick.

Elliott feels that the Tigers, Red Sox, and Reds are teams that might have interest in Buck.

Anthopoulos Pleased With Free Agent Additions

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When the Blue Jays targeted free agents last offseason, they wanted to complement their young pitching. Not necessarily with veteran starters, but with established catchers and proven defenders. Halfway through the 2010 season, the Blue Jays’ free agent signings appear to have helped with the development of starters like Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow. But free agent additions John Buck and Alex Gonzalez have contributed on offense, too.

Buck and Gonzalez have paired up for 30 home runs – 14 more than they combined to hit all of last season. It isn't exactly what the Blue Jays expected, but GM Alex Anthopoulos won't complain about a player who leads all MLB shortstops in home runs (17) at a bargain salary ($2.75MM).

“[Gonzalez has] been great, he’s certainly been more than we could have hoped for,” Anthopoulos told MLBTR Saturday. “We certainly wouldn’t have expected to have this number of home runs so early.”

And Anthopoulos, who spent about $11MM on major league free agents in his first offseason as the team’s GM, was expecting moderate power from Buck. So far, the backstop has exceeded the team’s expectations.

“I don’t know that we saw the All-Star game coming,” Anthopoulos conceded.

Buck has 13 home runs this season, second only to Mike Napoli among MLB catchers. But Buck didn’t join the Jays to hit home runs. He wanted to work with the Blue Jays’ pitchers.

“I can let them know that they can learn from each outing even if it’s a terrible outing, which I think they’re doing,” Buck said.

The Blue Jays appealed to catcher Jose Molina for two reasons. First of all, he wanted a big league job. And like Buck, Molina wanted to guide the Jays’ pitchers through the ups and downs of a major league season.

“We try to help the staff to become better and I think that’s what we’ve been doing,” Molina said. “I mean sometimes it’s going to work, sometimes it doesn’t, but I think the main thing is that [the pitchers] keep their focus every day.”

Molina (.751 OPS, $0.8MM salary) and Buck (.813 OPS, $2MM salary) have been pleasant surprises at the plate, but Anthopoulos says he signed the pair because of what they can do behind the plate. Though Gonzalez had flashed power with the Marlins (23 homers in ’04) and Reds (16 homers in ’07), his defense appealed to the Blue Jays front office, too.

“In this division you can’t give away outs,” Anthopoulos said. “We’re going to run young starters out, which was really going to be the core of this team, so having a plus glove at [shortstop] was important.”

Anthopoulos signed one more major free agent in his rookie offseason. The Blue Jays front office determined that Kevin Gregg’s second half slow-downs (3.84 first half ERA, 4.41 second half ERA) could have been related to knee issues that no longer appeared serious. They signed Gregg for $2.75MM and he has generally been effective, saving 20 games and posting a 3.71 ERA with 9.8 K.9 and 4.8 BB/9.

Gregg is a trade candidate, since the 44-44 Blue Jays trail the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. Lots of Blue Jays, including Anthopoulos’ recent additions, could appeal to other clubs, but Gregg is one player who isn’t thinking about the rumors.

“I could care less,” Gregg said. “I like it here, I like all the guys, I like everything that we’ve got going here. I wish our record was a little bit better, but I still think we’ve got the potential to win a lot of games.”

What The Elias Rankings Mean For Trade Candidates

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Many of this year's trade candidates share a distinguishing characteristic: they are about to become free agents. After the season, their teams will decide whether to offer arbitration and have a chance at top picks in next year's draft. A player's ranking can contribute to or detract from his trade value, so let's take a look at some of this year's trade candidates and see where they place under our reverse-engineered Elias rankings. 

We'll start with some trade candidates who project as Type A free agents. If these players decline arbitration offers to sign elsewhere, their former teams will receive two top picks in the 2011 draft. These players are sometimes more inclined to accept arbitration, since their Type A status can intimidate would-be suitors who don't want to surrender a pick (just ask Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson).

It's important to note that teams don't necessarily give first rounders up to sign the players below. The first 15 picks are protected and sometimes teams sign more than one Type A player. Say the Red Sox sign Adam Dunn (75.8 ranking) and Scott Downs (74.6 ranking) and both were offered arb. The Nationals would get Boston's top pick and the Blue Jays would get their second-best pick because Dunn ranks higher than Downs. In that instance, Downs only costs the Red Sox a second rounder.

Once a team signs one Type A free agent, the cost of signing a second and a third drops, since the club is giving up lesser picks. Rafael Soriano (88.9), Vladimir Guerrero (88.6), Carl Crawford (85.5), Javier Vazquez (79.0) and Adrian Beltre (78.9) could all get arbitration offers this winter, so Type As, especially lower-ranked players, don't always cost a first rounder. With that in mind, here are some trade candidates who currently have Type A status:

  • Cliff Lee (91.8) – He is getting an arbitration offer and turning it down. Lee's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Jayson Werth (86.0) – Same goes for Werth.
  • David DeJesus (78.3)- Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs argued yesterday that the Royals shouldn't offer arbitration, since DeJesus would accept. It's entirely possible that the Royals can get more value for DeJesus in a trade, but I don't think DeJesus would necessarily accept arbitration. He will easily be a top-five outfielder if his team lets him hit free agency instead of picking up his $6MM option. And if he accepts? The team has an above-average outfielder on an affordable one-year deal.
  • Adam Dunn (75.8) – He will get an arbitration offer and will probably turn it down. Dunn's Type A status boosts his trade value.
  • Scott Downs (74.6) – Earlier this week, I suggested the Blue Jays could offer Downs arbitration and either collect the picks or pay him $5MM or so in 2011. There's a good chance that Downs accepts an offer of arbitration, but the chance at two top picks probably makes that a risk worth taking. 
  • Miguel Tejada (74.4) – It's hard to imagine teams forfeiting picks to sign Tejada. It seems unlikely that a team would offer arbitration. Tejada's Type A status doesn't affect his trade value (and he is only a couple points away from becoming a Type B).
  • Ted Lilly (74.3) – Lilly will be a top free agent starter after the season, so the Cubs will likely offer arbitration. Lilly's Type A status boosts his trade value.

And here are some players who currently project as Type B free agents. These players will bring their former teams a supplementary round pick if they decline arbitration to sign elsewhere. But teams don't have to give up their picks to sign Type Bs, which makes these players appealing as free agents.

  • John Buck – J. P. Arencibia is Toronto's catcher of the future, but it's easy to imagine the Blue Jays (or another team) offering Buck arbitration after the season. It worked last year, when the Jays got a supplemental rounder for losing Rod Barajas. Buck wouldn't make much through arbitration, so his Type B status boosts his trade value.
  • Jose Guillen – It's extremely hard to imagine the Royals offering arbitration. His Type B status does not affect his trade value.
  • Mike Lowell – Same goes for Lowell.
  • Kevin Millwood – And for Millwood.
  • Jason Frasor – Frasor makes only $2.65MM this year, so he wouldn't be making an overwhelming amount even if he accepted arbitration. Obtaining a pick for Frasor would be a plus, so his Type B status helps his trade value.
  • Derrek Lee – Given Lee's struggles and salary, it's hard to imagine his team offering arbitration.
  • Cristian Guzman – Guzman makes $8MM this year and though players aren't guaranteed raises via this kind of arbitration, Guzman isn't even worth his current salary on the open market. An arbitration offer seems unlikely, so his status doesn't affect his trade value.
  • Octavio Dotel –  Like Frasor, Dotel could see an offer of arbitration, depending on how he finishes the season, so his Type B status helps his trade value. The Pirates have a $4MM option for Dotel that becomes mutual if he is traded.
  • Aaron Heilman – It seems unlikely that the D'Backs would feel comfortable offering Heilman arbitration, given his inconsistent performance in 2010, so his status doesn't help his trade value.

Rosenthal On D’Backs, Dunn, Blue Jays, Morgan

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In his latest column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that it's unlikely the Diamondbacks make a huge splash before the trade deadline. With interim GM Jerry DiPoto not expected to hold the position past this season, Rosenthal is skeptical that the D'Backs would give him the reins to blow up the roster. Although Arizona could trade potential free agents like Adam LaRoche, Chad Qualls, and Aaron Heilman, Rosenthal thinks the team probably won't move Dan Haren, Kelly Johnson, or Stephen Drew. Here are a few other notes from the piece:

  • According to a rival club offical, the Nationals were asking the White Sox for either Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin in exchange for Adam Dunn.
  • If the Blue Jays don't receive satisfactory offers for their free-agents-to-be, the club may take the same approach they did last year, when the departures of Marco Scutaro and Rod Barajas earned them draft picks. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, and John Buck all project to be Type As or Bs, and could potentially net the Jays multiple 2011 compensation picks.
  • When teams call the Jays to talk trades, Toronto's young starting rotation is the most frequent topic of conversation.
  • Some members of the Nationals organization wouldn't mind trading Nyjer Morgan to open up center field for Roger Bernadina.
  • Within seven to ten days, the Marlins should make a decision on whether or not to be sellers.
  • If Buck Showalter lands the Baltimore managerial job, former Orioles such as Bill Ripken and B.J. Surhoff would be candidates to join his staff.

Cafardo’s Latest: Blue Jays, Dunn, Washburn, Dukes

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In his column today for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo explores the effect of Arizona's controversial immigration law on baseball. He also shares a few notes from around the league:

  • The Blue Jays' huge collection of scouts should have them well-prepared to deal at this year's trade deadline. Cafardo names a slew of players who the Jays could try to move if they're out of playoff contention, noting that the club will "likely listen to anything." The list includes Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Downs, Jose Bautista, John Buck and Jose Molina.
  • Molina has thrown out eight of 11 basestealers so far this year, a statistic that could intrigue the Red Sox. However, Cafardo says the Sox "will never deal for a catcher who is all defense, no offense."
  • Cafardo suggests that Adam Dunn would be a good fit at DH for the Red Sox in the post-David Ortiz era.
  • Jarrod Washburn's time off this spring has given him a few extra weeks to recover from offseason knee surgery, though now teams will have to assess how long it will take Washburn to be major league ready. According to Cafardo, the Dodgers' pitching issues make them look every day like a better fit for Washburn.
  • A source tells Cafardo that Elijah Dukes' rumored deal with the Tabasco Olmecas of the Mexican League fell through after Dukes failed to show up for a reporting date. Cafardo indicates that the 25-year-old could end up spending the year away from baseball.

Roy Halladay-Cliff Lee Trade Finalized

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3:27pm: Over at BlueJays.com, Blue Jays Alex Anthopoulos talked about the players the Jays received in the Halladay deal, as well as recent signing John Buck.  A few notes: Anthopoulos sees Wallace as a first baseman, and he has still has ongoing trade talks about other players.

1:48pm: The Mariners announced the trade in a press release, with GM Jack Zdruriencik congratulating the Phillies and Blue Jays on the way the deal was handled.  ESPN's Jayson Stark notes that the deal will be complete all-around once Bud Selig signs off on the $6MM going to the Phillies.  Elliott says an MRI on Wallace's shoulder cleared the Taylor part of the swap.

1:31pm: Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail heard that the report of a failed physical is a "totally false rumour."  ESPN's Shannon Drayer tweets that the deal is official and Lee is a Mariner.  MLB.com's Todd Zolecki agrees, saying a Halladay press conference is set for 4pm CST.

12:38pm: Davidi passes along an AP report that has Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. saying he's hopeful the trade can be completed today but talks may go into Thursday.  Larry Stone of the Seattle Times doesn't expect the deal to unravel, and is hearing it's not a Mariners prospect who failed a physical.

11:47am: The three/four-way trade involving Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee is not yet official; here's our post yesterday for a refresher.  The latest bit of news kicking off today's post: Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun tweets that he heard someone involved in the trade flunked their physical (one of the minor leaguers).  Shi Davidi of The Canadian Press says Phillippe Aumont passed.  There appears to be six other prospects involved in the deal, if you include the Michael Taylor–Brett Wallace component.  Drabek had Tommy John surgery in July of '07, while Aumont had elbow issues toward the end of the '08 season.

A recap of the expected deal:

  • The Phillies get Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, Juan Ramirez, and $6MM.  The Phillies will give Halladay a three-year extension plus vesting options.
  • The Mariners get Cliff Lee.
  • The Blue Jays get Kyle Drabek, Brett Wallace, and Travis d'Arnaud.
  • The A's get Michael Taylor.
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