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Josh Donaldson

AL Central Notes: Donaldson, Edwin, Shaw, Fulmer, Tigers

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Some rumblings from the AL Central…

  • Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Twins “kicked the tires” on Josh Donaldson and other third basemen, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins have continued to show interest in Donaldson’s services.  With Anthony Rendon now wearing Angels red, Minnesota will face some stiff competition for the best third baseman remaining on the market, as the Rangers and Nationals are among the clubs who are reportedly set to redirect their efforts towards signing Donaldson are coming up short on Rendon.
  • The White Sox have met with Edwin Encarnacion’s agents, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (Twitter link).  After already adding Yasmani Grandal and Nomar Mazara, signing Encarnacion would add even more pop to Chicago’s lineup, as he would pair with Jose Abreu (and Grandal, on days when Grandal isn’t catching) in the first base/DH mix.  The Blue Jays are the only other team known to have some interest in Encarnacion this offseason, though Levine reports that Encarnacion’s camp has also met with two other teams, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Encarnacion has received interest from six clubs overall — five in the American League and one in the National League.  The mystery NL team made Encarnacion an offer, according to Heyman, though the veteran slugger has said he would prefer to remain in the AL.
  • The Tigers are one of the teams interested in Travis Shaw, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter).  Shaw was non-tendered by the Brewers last week, as Shaw’s disastrous 2019 season left Milwaukee wary of paying the infielder a projected $4.7MM arbitration salary.  In 2017-18, however, Shaw hit .258/.347/.497 with 63 homers over 1193 PA for the Brew Crew, so he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for several clubs.  In particular, a rebuilding team like Detroit could certainly see the rebound potential in Shaw, who can play either corner infield position and also has experience at second base.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) with an update on right-hander Michael Fulmer, who is “on track” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and “should be able to pitch in games sometime in July.”  Fulmer underwent his procedure last March, so a July return would be slightly beyond the normal 12-15 month timeframe for TJ patients, though not by any unusual amount.

Angels, Anthony Rendon In “Active Talks”; Rangers Out

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9:00pm: The Rangers are out of the race, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. They never wanted to go more than five years for Rendon, who has sought seven, TR Sullivan of MLB.com tweets. They’ve now turned their attention to the No. 2 third baseman on the market, Josh Donaldson, per Sullivan.

8:29pm: The Angels are engaged in “active talks” with free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. They’re “working hard” to sign him, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, while Rosenthal adds that the Angels are hoping to finalize a deal tonight.

With the Dodgers seemingly drifting from the Rendon race, it may come down to a pair of AL West rivals to sign the longtime Washington superstar. The Rangers remain in the mix, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram’s Jeff Wilson, who notes that they’ve met with Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, once during the Winter Meetings.

While Rendon’s a Texas native, which could work in the Rangers’ favor, it seems the Angels are determined to get this done. At the moment, they’re “pretty deep in negotiation” to sign him, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. The Angels already lost out on two big targets in Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) this week. Cole’s exit from the board left Rendon as the best player available, and he should join Strasburg and Cole in signing for well over $200MM. It appears the Angels are prepared to pay the price.

Angels Have Shown Interest In Josh Donaldson

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Continuing their desire to land at least one of the premier free agents on the board, the Angels have shown interest in third baseman Josh Donaldson. They’ve “checked in on” the 34-year-old star, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

It’s now known that the Angels have thrown their hat in the ring on the two best third basemen available on the open market. A report from earlier Tuesday indicated they’ve also expressed interest in Anthony Rendon, who figures to cost far more than Donaldson. Thanks in part to the age difference between the two (Rendon won’t turn 30 until June), Rendon will significantly out-earn Donaldson. MLBTR predicts Rendon for a seven-year, $235MM contract and Donaldson for a three-year, $75MM payday. However, the chances of Donaldson reeling in a four-year pact appear to be increasing after an excellent season in Atlanta for the former American League MVP.

While the Angels’ focus is on signing the No. 1 free agent available, right-hander Gerrit Cole, there’s clearly room for a major splash at the hot corner. They traded Zack Cozart to the Giants on Tuesday, thus ridding themselves of a third base option and (perhaps more importantly) just over $12MM in payroll room. And there’s not necessarily a proven performer at the position left on the roster. David Fletcher’s a solid player, but adding a different third baseman could enable him to focus on second in 2020. Matt Thaiss didn’t hit much during his initial major league action in 2019, meanwhile, and save for a magical few months last season, Tommy La Stella doesn’t carry a long track record as an above-average big leaguer.

Nationals “Ready To Pivot” To Josh Donaldson

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The Nationals are “ready to pivot” to Josh Donaldson as an alternative at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. It’s a longstanding connection, but the circumstances have shifted of late.

If this report is read most expansively, it might suggest that the Nats have all but given up their pursuit of Anthony Rendon, the superstar they drafted and helped to develop into one of the game’s best players. But the organization has been unwilling to rule out that possibility in the wake of the re-signing of Stephen Strasburg.

At minimum, it sounds as if the Nationals believe they’re likely to need a replacement for Rendon as he continues to draw suitors. That’s an awfully tall order, but the club certainly isn’t lowering its standards with its reported targets to date. In addition to considering Donaldson, the Nats are also said to have checked in on the trade availability of Kris Bryant.

If indeed the Nats do make a full-court press for Donaldson, they’ll need to stand out among several other contenders for his services. The division-rival Braves and Phillies are among them, along with the Dodgers, Rangers, and perhaps others. With loads of market appetite and a relative dearth of alternatives, particularly now that Mike Moustakas has signed with the Reds as a second baseman, Donaldson is seen as increasingly likely to command a four-year deal.

The Nationals have proven time and again that they’ll pay top dollar for free agents. In addition to the deals they got done, the club heavily pursued players such as Jason Heyward and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether they’ll come away with Donaldson can’t be known at the moment, but dedicated involvement from the D.C. organization is unquestionably a boon to his earning power.

Anthopoulos: Braves Seek Middle-Of-The-Order Hitter

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Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos said yesterday that he’s interested in acquiring a middle-of-the-order bat, as David O’Brien of The Athletic reports (subscription link). That could be a third baseman or outfielder, per the club’s top baseball operations decisionmaker.

The top preference for the Atlanta organization would surely still be a new deal with third baseman Josh Donaldson. But the Braves may decide not to keep pace with bidding that seems to be going to four years.

It always seemed quite possible, probable even, that Donaldson would move on to another team after making good on the one-year deal he signed last winter. What’s most interesting about the latest update is the fact that the team is not limiting itself to finding impact at the hot corner.

“Ideally,” says Anthopolous, the desired offensive output would come from a player that suits up at third. But it “can come in the form of an outfielder, as well,” he said. The primary goal is to get a big bat to replace the outgoing production that Donaldson delivered. “I can’t guarantee we’ll be able to accomplish that, but I’d like to add a middle-of-the-order bat if we can,” says Anthopoulos.

In terms of open-market corner outfield possibilities, there are quite a few younger players, though none to Donaldson’s standard. Where one draws the line in deeming a player a “middle of the order bat” is obviously a subjective matter. The Braves could go after Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Yasiel Puig, or Avisail Garcia. Or, the club might consider lefty swinging veterans Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun. Two conceivable options — Tommy Pham and Hunter Renfroe — were already traded for one another. There are some other possible candidates that may be available via trade, though the remaining market has yet to gain much clarity.

What of Johan Camargo and Austin Riley? We’ve often heard indications of confidence in that pair of younger players. But that doesn’t seem to be the vibe around the organization. “[P]rivately it’s not believed [the Braves] consider either a good or perhaps even acceptable option” for the hot corner in 2020, O’Brien writes.

That adds to the intrigue surrounding the possibility of the team landing a corner outfield bat. Perhaps the club would then also need to pick up another option at the hot corner. Having already re-signed Nick Markakis to go with young star Ronald Acuna Jr., adding another outfielder would also likely increase the possibility of a trade involving Ender Inciarte. The Braves are also said to be interested in adding a glove-first, shortstop-capable utility piece, meaning the team is still shopping for at least two and possibly three position players.

Josh Donaldson Increasingly Seen As Candidate For 4-Year Deal

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Veteran third bagger Josh Donaldson is an unsurprisingly popular target through this stage of the market development. The interest has been so robust that he may even secure a four-year guarantee. We’ve seen the suggestion bandied about in recent days, but MLB.com’s Mark Bowman now reports (via Twitter) that it’s becoming a “growing expectation” that Donaldson will get the fourth campaign.

That length of contract wouldn’t be surprising at all for a player of Donaldson’s stature … were it not for the fact that he just turned 34 yesterday. Ben Zobrist did secure a four-year term a few years back, but more recent free agents have faced greater headwinds in securing promised cash into their late-thirties. And Donaldson seems all but certain to command a much loftier annual salary than Zobrist did.

As it turns out, though, interest in Donaldson is quite robust. While numerous clubs are still grappling over top third baseman Anthony Rendon, only one will get him. Donaldson is far senior to Rendon but was even better at his peak. While the former is no longer a perennial MVP candidate, he easily outperformed the one-year, $23MM bounceback contract he took last season with the Braves and seems a good bet to deliver big production for years to come.

Donaldson hit a ton in his 659 plate appearances in 2019, turning in a .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 homers. He did all that while providing value in the field, with Defensive Runs Saved taking a particularly bullish view. As important was the fact that he played that extensively at all. Donaldson had appeared in 165 contests over the prior two seasons but went the distance in 2019.

Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Donaldson would secure a $75MM guarantee over three seasons. If he’s able to get that fourth guaranteed year, it may be at a somewhat lesser single-season rate of pay. But it’s also now conceivable he could threaten nine figures in his next contract.

Winter Meetings Preview: The Dodgers’ Infield

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have unsurprisingly been asked about the availability of Gavin Lux, the Dodgers’ minor league player of the year for 2019. Thus far, understandably, suitors have been turned away, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman. Granted, this isn’t shocking news in and of itself, but it is telling of the Dodgers’ mindset on the eve of the winter meetings.

Lux, 22, is coming off a monster season that saw him hulk out for a .347/.421/.607 line in 113 games across Double-A and Triple-A (which included a monstrous-even-for-the-PCL .719 SLG and 188 wRC+ in 49 games in Triple-A). He didn’t disappoint in a cup of coffee with the big league club, holding his own at .240/.305/.400 in 23 games of uneven playing time. He proved capable enough to make the playoff roster and earn the start in games 2 and 4 in the NLDS versus the Nationals.

It’s not surprising that the Dodgers would make a point to hang onto the young star, but doing so doesn’t exactly jibe with their rumored interest in free agent Anthony Rendon. Justin Turner has made clear his openness to moving around the diamond, and while it’s certainly nice to be reminded that chivalry is not yet dead, it’s not obvious where Turner would move if the Dodgers are indeed intent on making Lux a part of their core moving forward.

A Corey Seager trade could open a spot with Lux taking over at short, Max Muncy taking full-time duties at second and Turner moving to first. Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, and NL MVP Cody Bellinger are capable of filling in around the infield as needed. But as good as Rendon is, Seager himself was a 4.0 bWAR player in 2019, and it would seem that the Seager/Lux/Muncy/Bellinger/Taylor/Hernandez/Turner septet already provides the perfect amount of wholesale injury coverage and star power. Swapping in Rendon for Seager cuts their shortstop options by one, and while they’d still probably be two injuries away from any real panic, it’s still a little hard to fathom why swapping in Rendon and his presumably monstrous contract makes sense – unless the goal is simply to keep the development train moving by restocking the lower levels via trade.

They could certainly sign Rendon – or Josh Donaldson, for that matter – and shop one of their other infielders, but there’s not a natural fit on that front either. Turner and Muncy have been central figures to the culture and success of the Dodgers in recent seasons, and it’s frankly jarring to imagine either one suiting up elsewhere. Moving Taylor or Hernandez neither frees up at-bats nor brings back a significant prospect haul.

The logical conclusion is that the Dodgers’ interest in Rendon is probably more smoke than fire. President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has made a point of avoiding lavish and reactionary spending, and a Rendon signing would appear to qualify as both. Luxury tax estimates (per Roster Resource) peg the Dodgers at around $176MM for the upcoming season, which would make it difficult to fit Rendon under the tax line. Their longer-term financial picture is more flexible, however, with only ~$93MM on the books for 2021 and ~$33MM the year after.

The Dodgers did suffer a particularly tough playoff defeat in 2019, and after seven years of making the playoffs and coming home without a ring, it’s fair to wonder if the disciplined roster building that’s become the brand of these Los Angeles Dodgers might finally break under the strain of those playoff defeats. Andrew Friedman is also one of the more creative thinkers in the game and if there’s a way to make this work, he’s sure to find it. But it’s also not hard to see why they’d keep on keeping on with business as usual.

NL East Notes: Harrison, Braves, Nationals

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Josh Harrison received interest from multiple teams before signing his minor league deal with the Phillies yesterday, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link) that the Mets were the runners-up in the race for the veteran infielder.  Given that Cesar Hernandez has been widely tabbed as a non-tender candidate, Harrison would seemingly have a smoother path to possible playing time at second base in Philadelphia, whereas Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, and Jed Lowrie could all be ahead of Harrison on the depth chart in Queens.  Despite the seeming glut of infield talent, it isn’t surprising that the Mets were on the lookout for more depth given that Cano battled both injuries and a downturn in performance in 2019, while Lowrie spent most of the year on the injured list.

More from around the NL East….

  • While the Braves have been the winter’s busiest team thus far, their “offseason will rise/fall on [Josh] Donaldson’s decision,” Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution opines.  Missing out on Donaldson would leave the team with a big hole in the lineup, and one that couldn’t be entirely filled by another third base addition like Mike Moustakas.  As Bradley puts it, “Moustakas is a good player. Donaldson and [Anthony] Rendon are great players.”  This take is perhaps rather dismissive of Moustakas’ abilities, as while Donaldson is the better player, there is some upside to inking a lesser third base option — for instance, Atlanta could sign Moustakas and a starting pitcher for the same price it would take to land just Donaldson.  While it remains to be seen if Donaldson will be re-signed, Bradley notes that the Braves’ early flurry of signings has quieted some critics who felt the team wasn’t prepared to spend to reinforce its NL East-winning roster.
  • The Braves’ quick pace wasn’t by design, however, as GM Alex Anthopoulos tells The Athletic’s Jayson Stark (subscription required).  “I’m not in a position to forecast what the rest of our offseason is going to look like because what we’ve done so far was really just circumstance.  It just happened to come together the way it did,” Anthopoulos said, noting that the deals with Chris Martin, Darren O’Day, Nick Markakis, and Tyler Flowers were aided by the fact that all four players were already with Atlanta in 2019.  As a result, Stark writes that fans might be disappointed if they think Atlanta’s moves or the White Sox moving quickly to sign Yasmani Grandal could signal a busier hot stove season for all 30 teams rather than the slow-moving winters of the last two years.
  • Relief pitching looks to be a clear need for the Nationals this offseason…or is it?  As Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post observes, the Nats’ early acquisitions of Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough last winter ended up as disasters, and the club ended up more or less entirely remaking their bullpen by season’s end.  With this in mind, the Nationals might aim lower in picking up any new relievers this offseason because, since relief pitching performance is so hard to predict from year to year, the club might prefer to save such acquisitions for closer to the trade deadline.  GM Mike Rizzo “prefers to assess relievers in-season, with fresh data and video to parse through,” Dougherty writes.

Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen

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The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.

One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.

That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.

And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.

The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.

As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

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