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Taking Inventory: Miami Marlins

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In an effort to cut payroll, the new Marlins ownership group (headlined by Derek Jeter) has already kicked off a fire sale of major league assets. They’ve traded three significant players so far in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna, and only the latter of the three netted any significant prospect haul. Miami has succeeded in getting big salaries off the books, but their farm system still looks bleak and lacks top-rated prospects (though some pitchers in their system have upside).

So while the team has already completed its stated salary-slashing objective, the moves made so far have put the franchise in an in-between kind of state. Miami finished last season with a 77-85 record, and then traded away three players who were worth a combined 15 fWAR. The only major league asset who came back in return was Starlin Castro, who was worth about 2 fWAR in 2017. All told, the Marlins’ roster looks about 13 wins worse than last season, which in theory would make them about as good as last year’s Tigers club.

Of course, it doesn’t exactly work that way, but the writing on the wall here is that the Marlins aren’t going to do a whole lot of winning next season. They’d face enormous odds in challenging the Nationals for the NL East crown. Aside from that, their farm system is dwarfed by those of the division-rival Braves and Phillies, both of whom are on the rise. Clearly the club isn’t planning on improving the team through free agency, as that would counteract the enormous effort the team made to reduce payroll. As such, there appears to be no reason to stop selling now. There are a few players on the roster who could help the Fish add significant prospects to their minor league ranks and improve the organization’s future outlook…

Two Years of Control

Starlin Castro, 2B ($22MM owed through 2019, including $1MM buyout of $16MM option for 2020): When Castro came to Miami in the Stanton deal, trade speculation began immediately. There’s probably some surplus value to be had in the 27-year-old’s contract considering his reasonable salary and the fact that he’s still in his prime. With the Marlins having already met their payroll-related goals, they probably even have the flexibility to pay some of his salary in order to get better prospects in exchange. Castro is coming off a .300/.338/.454 season, but poor defensive play at second limits his value to an extent.

Longer-Term Assets

J.T. Realmuto, C ($4.2MM projected arb salary for 2018): MLBTR has already talked about Realmuto’s trade candidacy at length this month (including an in-depth piece on his market), so I’ll keep this short. Realmuto has already requested a trade, and although he doesn’t have any real leverage in the matter, he seems a likely candidate to be wearing another uniform even before he hits free agency following the 2020 season. The Marlins catcher was worth at least 3.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and plenty of contenders and up-and-comers would love to have that kind of value coming from a premium position on the diamond. It would, however, take a reportedly “huge overpay” to pry him out of Miami’s hands.

"<strongChristian Yelich, OF ($44.5MM owed through 2021, including $1.25MM buyout of $15MM option for 2022): Yelich has also been one of the more common names to pop up in trade rumors this offseason. He’s easily the Marlins’ most valuable asset; the former first round pick has been worth about 16 fWAR across the past four seasons combined. With five more years of team control, however, there’s at least a chance he could be part of the next winning Marlins club at a very reasonable price, so there’s less of a reason for the team to move him there is to move other assets. Among the plusses for Yelich are good defense in the outfield, a 10.7% career walk rate and improved baserunning ability.

Dan Straily, RHP ($4.6MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): While Straily isn’t as talented (or receiving as much trade attention) as elite options like Michael Fulmer, Chris Archer and Gerrit Cole, he’s a league-average MLB talent who could be made available in a thin and expensive market for pitching. Straily posted a 4.26 ERA in 2017 along with a 2.83 K/BB ratio and comes with three years of team control.

Justin Bour, 1B ($3.5MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Amidst Marlins rumors, it’s somewhat of a surprise to me that Bour’s name hasn’t been mentioned more often. Miami’s left-handed-hitting first baseman enjoyed a breakout season in 2017 prior to an oblique injury. Upon his return in early September, he picked up right where he left off, and ultimately finished the season with an outstanding .289/.366/.536 slash line to go with 25 home runs across just 429 plate appearances. With the Rockies, Angels and Mariners still looking for first base help, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the market for Bour heat up at some point. He wouldn’t come cheap, though, as he’s cost-effective and controllable through arbitration from 2018-2020.

Kyle Barraclough, RHRP (League minimum salary for 2018): Barraclough has a sky-high career strikeout rate 12.05 K/9), but carries the downside of an equally absurd walk rate (5.52 BB/9). The net result is a sort of effectively-wild performance that’s led to fantastic career run-prevention numbers, headlined by a 2.87 ERA. With elite relievers becoming more and more in demand, it’s conceivable Barraclough could net a hefty return.

Derek Dietrich, INF ($3.2MM projected arbitration salary for 2018): Though he’s not a full-time player, Dietrich has managed to accrue at least 1.5 fWAR in each of the past two seasons, and can play both second and third base. He’d be a cheap utility infield option on a contending team, and comes with three years of team control. He hit .249/.334/.424 in 2017 with 13 homers, making him a nearly average offensive player at 99 wRC+.

Salary Dump Candidates

Wei-Yin Chen, LHP ($60MM owed through 2020, with a $16MM vesting option for 2021): Simply put, this offseason would be the worst possible time to trade Chen. After missing most of the season due to elbow issues, Chen returned to make just four appearances out of the bullpen in September prior to being shut down. While he was generally good when on the field (3.82 ERA, 3.73 FIP), the Marlins would have an incredibly difficult time trying to move any of his salary until he can settle concerns about his elbow.

Martin Prado, 3B ($28.5MM owed through 2019): Prado is coming off a dreadful 2017 season in which he was able to muster just 147 plate appearances due to multiple injuries. He posted just a 67 wRC+ across that time, and will enter the 2018 season at 34 years of age. There have been reports that the Marlins might try to attach Prado to a trade of a more valuable asset in order to clear his salary, but like Chen, it might be the wrong time to trade him. After all, he averaged 3 WAR from 2014-2016 thanks to a .295/.341/.407 slash line and elite defense at the hot corner.

Brad Ziegler, RHRP ($9MM salary for 2018): The issue with Ziegler is his recent inability to miss bats. The righty struck out fewer than five batters per nine innings in 2018 and experienced a steep drop in velocity on his sinker. All told, Ziegler was tagged for 25 earned runs in 47 innings. Perhaps he’s another candidate to re-established value prior to the trade deadline, but he’s also 38 years old; it’s also possible the Marlins could be better served simply trying to find a taker for as much of his salary as possible.

Junichi Tazawa, RHRP ($7MM salary for 2018): See Ziegler. Okay, not exactly, but Tazawa’s outlook isn’t much more promising other than the fact that he’s seven years younger. The righty is two years removed from his last respectable season. Last year was his worst performance yet: he was valued below replacement level thanks to a 5.69 ERA and 4.96 FIP. Miami’s best chance to move his salary would be to try to include him in a trade along with Realmuto, Yelich or another contract with significant excess value.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

NL East Notes: Braves, Nats, Harris, Jennings, Marlins

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Here’s the latest from around the NL East…

  • The Nationals granted the Braves permission to speak to Nats assistant GM Doug Harris and special assistant Dan Jennings about Atlanta’s general manager vacancy, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link).  Earlier this week, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that Nats GM Mike Rizzo contacted Braves upper management to give Harris a recommendation.  Harris was originally hired as Washington’s farm director in 2010 and has since risen to the AGM and VP of player personnel roles, as well as overseeing the Nationals’ minor league system.  He has also worked with John Hart before, as Harris was a Rangers scout when Hart was Texas’ general manager.  Jennings, of course, is best known for his long stint with the Marlins, most notably as their general manager and then on-field manager.  In another tweet, O’Brien hears from the Braves that their GM search “will likely be slow developing,” which isn’t surprising given the abrupt nature of the team’s front office shakeup earlier this week.
  • The Marlins’ top trade chips are analyzed by former GMs Dan O’Dowd and Jim Bowden in a piece by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson.  Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna have the most trade value, though the two ex-GMs disagree on Dee Gordon’s value.  Both would move Dan Straily if the Fish can get a good young arm in return, essentially reversing the deal that saw Miami acquire Straily from the Reds last winter for Luis Castillo.  Giancarlo Stanton is obviously a major asset, though his no-trade clause and huge contract greatly limits his list of possible suitors, and limits what the Marlins can reasonably expect back in return.  In general,
  • A trade of Jose Urena or Kyle Barraclough would be “highly unlikely,” Jackson reports, and J.T. Realmuto or Justin Bour would only be dealt if the Marlins could get multiple good prospects back in return.  In Bowden’s opinion, the Marlins “have to listen on anyone.  If you are challenged economically like they are, you are looking for controllable, inexpensive players that are not eligible for arbitration yet.”

Marlins Designate Dustin McGowan For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated right-handed reliever Dustin McGowan for assignment and recalled fellow righty Kyle Barraclough to take his place on the roster, the team announced.

McGowan, whom the Marlins signed in December, had already racked up six appearances out of their bullpen this year. The 34-year-old totaled 5 1/3 innings, gave up two earned runs and added a pair of strikeouts and walks. In 178 career appearances as a starter and reliever, McGowan owns a 4.67 ERA to go along with a 7.31 K/9 and 3.89 BB/9.

Barraclough was lights-out in Triple-A to begin the campaign, undoubtedly leading to his promotion to the majors. The 25-year-old threw six innings of 1.50 ERA ball for New Orleans and compiled a 13.50 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9. He showed similar strikeout ability for the Marlins in 24 1/3 innings last season (11.1 K/9), but his control wasn’t nearly as pinpoint (6.66 BB/9). Nevertheless, he averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball while putting up an impressive 2.59 ERA and a solid 3.42 FIP. Barraclough was particularly tough on right-handed hitters, who amassed a horrid .143/.263/.234 line against him. MLBPipeline.com rates Barraclough as the Marlins’ 20th-best prospect.

NL East Notes: TJ, Wright, Marlins, Nats, Chacin

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In a piece for ESPN The Magazine, Sam Miller speaks with Scott Boras about pitching injuries — focusing, particularly, on several key NL East former TJ patients who are repped by the super agent. It’s an interesting piece, and I recommend you give it a full read. Boras says that his sometimes rather public discussion of the care of arms is “not an authority-driven exercise,” but rather “an education exercise” designed to draw attention to the issue. He explains that he hopes only to help ensure that all involved — including teams and, especially, his players — are able to “make an informed decision” for themselves. As Miller notes, that was precisely the purpose of the recent Tommy John study of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, which endeavored to identify statistical clues of UCL tear susceptibility.

Here’s more from the National League East:

  • Speaking of key injury situations, Mets third baseman David Wright faces an ongoing battle to overcome spinal stenosis, as Ron Berler writes in an excellent article for Men’s Fitness. New York will hope that he is able to remain productive and healthy, but it’s going to take a continued effort from the veteran — who has certainly been up to the task thus far, as the piece details.
  • The Marlins announced several camp decisions today; among them, the team is optioning righty Kyle Barraclough and southpaw Justin Nicolino to Triple-A. Barraclough had an impressive debut last year after coming over in the Steve Cishek trade, and looked to be a power pen option to help fill in for the injured Carter Capps. He still may have that chance, but will need to keep working on refining his command after permitting eight walks to go with eight strikeouts in 6 1/3 spring innings. Nicolino, meanwhile, had good results in the earned run department but only managed two strikeouts in his 8 1/3 frames, but he’ll likely be the first man up if and when a rotation need arises.
  • The Nationals have an interesting potential dilemma brewing in the outfield, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. Michael Taylor has had a strong camp, and seems clearly ready for a full test at the MLB level, but Ben Revere is now in the fold at center while Jayson Werth’s contract (and, it might be added, standing in the organization) make it difficult to create space. From my perspective, Werth’s injury history makes him a prime candidate for regular rest, which ought to provide plenty of opportunity for all of these players. It’s interesting to note, though, that Rosenthal says the Nats likely would have traded Taylor had the club managed to sign Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes over the winter.
  • Off the field, but relating to it, the Nationals are engaged in a renewed effort to sell their ballpark’s naming rights, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. Valerie Camillo, the organization’s chief revenue and marketing officer, explained that “this is a major revenue opportunity that was untapped by the team, when you look at overall picture of revenue growth potential.” Particularly with the MASN television dispute still proving a tough nut to crack, it obviously makes sense to pursue all avenues to improve the bottom line. While that may require some difficult tradeoffs with the Nationals Park name fairly entrenched, Camillo says that the club is doing it for a good reason: “It’s not as if we’ll be maximizing revenue without a competitive product on the field. We’re doing what we can to keep the fans happy, and I think the predominant thing fans want is winning.”
  • Braves righty Jhoulys Chacin is making a push for a rotation job, as Michael Kolligian reports for MLB.com. He has generally been expected to land in the pen after signing a minor league pact, but skipper Fredi Gonzalez says that Chacin is “really making a case.” Gonzalez continued: “he is definitely a guy who, if he keeps pitching like he is, he’ll be in the rotation someplace.” Utilizing Chacin and other veterans in the starting staff would certainly allow the organization to be conservative in deploying its younger options — a topic I discussed in reviewing the Braves’ offseason earlier this morning.

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