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Rockies’ Lucas Gilbreath To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Rockies reliever Lucas Gilbreath will undergo Tommy John surgery next week, he announced on TikTok (h/t to Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette). He’ll miss the entire 2023 season and likely be sidelined into the ’24 campaign as well.

It’s a disappointing but not surprising development. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported last week that the procedure was likely after Gilbreath had undergone an MRI. Perhaps not coincidentally, Colorado signed veteran southpaw Brad Hand to what essentially amounts to a $3MM deal (assuming he’s not cut within the next three weeks) over the weekend. Hand should step in as Colorado’s top left-handed reliever, with waiver claim Brent Suter adding a potential multi-inning option from the left side.

Hand and Suter make for a decent pairing of matchup options for skipper Bud Black. Still, the club will obviously be disappointed to lose Gilbreath, who had somewhat quietly put together a nice 2022 campaign. The 27-year-old worked to a 4.19 ERA over 43 innings, striking out 26.2% of batters faced with a solid 46.7% grounder rate. Gilbreath walked nearly 14% of opponents but he stifled left-handed batters to a .186 average and meager .220 slugging mark over 74 plate appearances.

The Rox will place Gilbreath on the 60-day injured list once the need for a 40-man roster spot arises. He’ll collect a full year of service while rehabbing, bringing him up to two years and 147 days of MLB time at season’s end. He’s a virtual lock to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player next winter, though his lack of a platform showing means he’s not likely to collect a salary much higher than the league minimum if tendered a contract. Colorado can control Gilbreath through the 2027 campaign.

Rockies’ Brendan Rodgers, Lucas Gilbreath Could Require Surgery

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2:13pm: The first opinion Rodgers received on his shoulder recommended surgery that would likely end his season, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s seeking a second opinion. If Rodgers is lost for the season, Heyman adds, the team would likely replace him internally rather than pursue a free agent such as Jose Iglesias, who spent the 2022 season with the Rox.

10:55am: Rockies fans received a pair of disappointing health updates today, as both second baseman Brendan Rodgers and reliever Lucas Gilbreath could require season-ending surgery. Rodgers, who dislocated his shoulder, earlier this week, has sustained “more damage than expected” to the shoulder capsule, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Harding notes that while no decision has been made yet, the possible surgery could threaten Rodgers’s 2023 season. As for Gilbreath, Harding reports that the lefty has undergone an MRI and describes Tommy John surgery as “likely”, though Gilbreath noted to Harding that he and the organization are still “looking into different options.”

Rodgers, 26, is coming off a breakout season of sorts where despite his .266/.325/.408 slash line leading to a below-average 92 wRC+, his work with the glove earned him a Gold Glove and contributed to a bWAR of 4.3. Rodgers was set to be the everyday second baseman in Colorado this season, and seemed likely to be one of the most valuable players on the club this season, as he was in 2021 when the aforementioned 4.3 bWAR figure led the team, with Ryan McMahon’s 3.1 figure coming in second among position players.

Gilbreath, meanwhile, was set to enter his age-27 season as one of the most reliable relievers in the Rockies bullpen. Gilbreath pitched very well over the past two seasons for a hurler who calls Coors Field his home ballpark, posting a 3.78 ERA (126 ERA+) and 3.92 FIP over the past two seasons, though those results come with a significant platoon split, as he dominated southpaws while struggling against righties. Should he undergo Tommy John surgery as expected, Gilbreath will surely miss not only all of the 2023 season, but the beginning of the 2024 season as well.

Should the club lose both players for the 2023 season, Colorado’s already slim hopes of contention (ZiPS gives the club playoff odds of just 0.1% entering the 2023 season, the lowest of all 30 clubs) will become even murkier. Assuming losing Gilbreath doesn’t spur the Rockies, who signed just two free agents to major league deals for a combined $8.5MM guarantee this offseason, to spend on a replacement lefty such as Zack Britton, Will Smith, or Brad Hand, the club will instead go into the season with Brent Suter as the bullpen’s primary left-handed option, and a depth option such as Gavin Hollowell or Phillips Valdez will take Gilbreath’s spot in the bullpen.

In looking to replace Rodgers, the first decision Rockies brass must make is whether or not to move Ryan McMahon, a top-tier defender at third base who also has experience at second, over to the keystone. If they do so, either Nolan Jones or Kris Bryant has ample experience at third base and could slot into the lineup at the hot corner with relative ease, though neither player brings anything close to McMahon’s defensive abilities at the position. Should the club feel McMahon’s defensive abilities at third are too valuable to lose, the options at second base are far less inspiring, with Alan Trejo representing the most likely option on the 40-man roster, while other possible options include non-roster invitees Harold Castro and Cole Tucker.

Rodgers was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, and will make $2.7MM in 2023. Rodgers will be arb eligible again for two more seasons before he’s expected to hit free agency following the 2025 season. Gilbreath, but as a likely Super Two candidate, is expected to reach arbitration this coming offseason, and is controllable through the end of the 2027 season. If Gilbreath is indeed out for the season, whatever raise he would receive in arbitration this offseason if he does pass the Super Two threshold would be negligible, limiting the risk of a non-tender this offseason.

NL West Notes: Drury, Slater, Gilbreath

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The Padres placed infielder Brandon Drury on the seven-day concussion injured list, retroactive to September 3, prior to today’s matchup with the Diamondbacks. Catcher Jorge Alfaro has been activated from the 10-day IL to take the vacated active roster spot. Drury was hit in the head by a Dustin May curveball on Friday. He remained on the active roster over the weekend but hasn’t played since then, and he’s apparently still battling concussion-like symptoms. The 30-year-old is eligible to return as soon as Saturday, although his specific recovery timetable is unclear.

Acquired as part of San Diego’s massive trade deadline, Drury has struggled through his first month in Southern California. While he’s connected on five home runs as a Padre (including a grand slam in his first at-bat), he’s hitting only .220 with a .262 on-base percentage over 107 plate appearances since the trade. That’s a notable dip from the excellent .274/.335/.520 line he posted through the first four months of the year as a member of the Reds. Despite the drop in production, Drury has remained an everyday player for a Friars team battling for a Wild Card spot. The season’s final month is also important for him personally, as he’s slated to hit the open market at the end of the year.

Let’s check in on a couple other injury situations within the division:

  • The Giants placed outfielder Austin Slater on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to yesterday, with a left hand sprain. Reliever Yunior Marte is up from Triple-A Sacramento to take the roster spot. Part of a matchup-heavy outfield in San Francisco, Slater has emerged as a highly productive role player when in the lineup for manager Gabe Kapler. He’s hitting .267/.378/.396 over 286 plate appearances this season, his third straight above-average campaign. The righty-hitting Slater carries a .257/.357/.424 line dating back to the start of 2020, including a massive .284/.389/.497 showing against left-handed pitching. Luis González has been in the lineup each of the past four days as Slater has nursed the injury that’ll now send him to the IL.
  • Rockies reliever Lucas Gilbreath is being shut down for the season, reports Danielle Allentuck of the Colorado Springs Gazette (Twitter link). The left-hander is on the injured list with a flexor strain in his throwing elbow, and he’s headed for a platelet-rich plasma injection. Allentuck adds that Gilbreath’s offseason work will be delayed by the issue, but the expectation is that he’ll avoid surgery and should be ready for Spring Training. Gilbreath has been a trusted relief option for skipper Bud Black this year, getting into 47 games and working 43 innings. He posted a 4.19 ERA with above-average strikeout (26.2%) and ground-ball (46.7%) marks, but he battled some control inconsistency.

NL Notes: Gilbreath, Eflin, Greene, Flaherty, Miley

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The Rockies announced that left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left elbow flexor strain. In a corresponding move, right-hander Alex Colome went the other direction, getting reinstated from the IL. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that Gilbreath will undergo an MRI.

While the severity of the issue still isn’t known, it’s at least enough for Gilbreath to miss the next couple of weeks. An issue to a pitcher’s throwing elbow is always somewhat worrisome, though the club will surely get more information before deciding how to proceed. The Rox are in the basement of the National League West and won’t be in contention down the stretch, meaning there will be little incentive to rush him back to the mound.

Gilbreath has been an effective southpaw for Colorado over the past couple of seasons, registering a 3.78 ERA, not too shabby for someone who plays their home games at Coors Field. In 85 2/3 career innings, he has a 25% strikeout rate and 45.7% groundball rate, though an elevated 13.2% walk rate.

Some other injury notes from the Senior Circuit…

  • Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is still trying to get back on the mound this season, having been on the injured list since late June due to a right knee bruise. Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets that Eflin might be able to throw a bullpen this week, with the aim of eventually returning as a reliever. Given that there’s just over a month remaining in the regular season, it would be difficult for him to build back up to a starter’s workload in time to make a significant contribution. The righty has quietly been an effective member of the rotation, having registered a 4.21 ERA over 98 games, 93 of them starts, going back to the beginning of the 2018 season. He is highly likely to reach free agency this year, as he and the Phils have a mutual option for 2023, with those provisions almost never being triggered by both parties. The club currently holds the second of three Wild Card spots in the National League and a postseason run could give Eflin more time to showcase his health before reaching the open market.
  • Reds righty Hunter Greene is set to head out on a rehab assignment, reports Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. He’s been out of action for over three weeks now due to a strain in his throwing shoulder, though appears to be slated to return after a couple of rehab outings. The highly-touted rookie is known for his tremendous velocity, though he’s yet to put it to great use at the big league level. He currently owns a 5.26 ERA after 102 2/3 innings in the majors, despite a strong 28.8% strikeout rate. When batters don’t strike out, they appear to be making good contact, as Greene’s barrel percentage is only in the league’s 10th percentile while his hard hit rate is in the 30th percentile. He’ll look to finish the season on a positive note before the winter begins. Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft are all under 25 years old and showed intriguing skills in their debuts this year. The Reds will surely be hoping to maximize the talents of that trio in order to have a strong foundation of starting pitching to build around in the future.
  • Righty Jack Flaherty is going to throw another rehab start on Wednesday before rejoining the Cardinals on Labor Day, tweets Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat. After an elite season in 2019 wherein he threw 196 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, Flaherty is now in his third straight injury-limited campaign. He’s made just three starts this year in between IL stints due to shoulder injuries. If he’s able to return and flash his 2019 form, he’d be a tremendous difference maker for the Cards down the stretch and into the postseason. The club is currently 5 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers in the race for the division crown. Flaherty hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in each of his last three rehab outings.
  • Cubs lefty Wade Miley is still looking to make his way back to a mound before the season is out, speaking to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times about his year. “I can’t shut it down,” Miley said. “If I want to keep playing baseball beyond this year, I have to prove to people that I’m not broke. And I don’t feel like I’m broke by any means.” After throwing 163 innings with a 3.37 ERA with the Reds last year, he was claimed on waivers by the Cubs but has been limited to just four starts and 19 innings here in 2022, due to various ailments, primarily in his throwing shoulder. He will be hoping to return to action and show some effectiveness before the end of the season, when he will become a free agent and turn 36 years old in November.

Rockies Place Jon Gray, Jordan Sheffield On 10-Day Injured List

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3:31PM: Gray has been placed on the 10-day IL with a right flexor strain, the Rockies announced.  Right-hander Jordan Sheffield is also headed to the 10-day injured list due to a right lat strain.  Left-handers Ben Bowden and Lucas Gilbreath have been called up from Triple-A to fill the roster spots.

8:29AM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray left Friday’s game after 2 1/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black described as right elbow soreness and tightness in Gray’s forearm.  Gray was charged with five runs in the abbreviated outing, with the injury clearly a factor.

“When I spoke to Jon, he indicated that his soreness impacted his pitching,” Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters.  “I don’t think he felt it on every pitch.  It started to tighten as the game went on.  That’s when we noticed the variability with his pitch-making and with his mannerisms.”

In the bigger picture, any sort of forearm or elbow issue is naturally a major concern for a pitcher.  It seems likely that Gray will miss at least one start for precautionary reasons if nothing else due to the nature of the injury, and a trip to the injured list shouldn’t be ruled out until Gray undergoes further testing and medical examination.  Gray has generally avoided any major arm injuries over the years, apart from the shoulder inflammation that prematurely ended his 2020 season in early September.

While it’s too early to ring the alarm on a potential Tommy John surgery, an injury that sidelines Gray for any noteworthy amount of time will have some ramifications on both his future and the Rockies’ trade deadline plans.  In the opinion of MLBTR’s Steve Adams, Gray is nothing less than the top trade candidate in baseball at this point in the season, owing to Colorado’s spot near the bottom of the standings, Gray’s decent numbers through 63 innings, and the righty’s impending free agent status.

An IL stint of anything more than a month or so would throw a wrench into Gray’s trade value, or perhaps prevent a deal altogether if teams are concerned about Gray’s arm.  Similarly, Gray’s ability to score a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency this winter could be hampered, perhaps to the point where he’d have to settle for a one-year deal.

Gray had been inconsistent in the three starts prior to last night’s injury-shortened appearance, and for the season, he has posted a 4.29 ERA/4.72 SIERA over 63 innings.  His 18.5% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both below average, but Gray’s overall Statcast outlook is not bad, and his 52.4% grounder rate is a career high.  Though Gray has been much better at Coors Field than on the road this season, he has some value as a potential change-of-scenery candidate who could perhaps thrive in a more normal pitching environment than the thin air of Colorado.

Rockies Place Antonio Senzatela On 10-Day Injured List

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The Rockies announced that righty Antonio Senzatela has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain.  Left-hander Lucas Gilbreath has been called up from the alternate training site in the corresponding move.

The injury compounds a tough beginning to the season for Senzatela, who has a 5.76 ERA through six starts.  The ERA is perhaps a bit deceptive, as he allowed seven runs over 3 1/3 innings in his first outing of the season and a 4.10 ERA in in his five outings, though Senzatela’s Statcast metrics aren’t terribly impressive.  The grounder specialist has his typically strong ground-ball rate (52.4%) but his 13.1% strikeout rate is among the league’s lowest.  Senzatela’s arsenal has made him a decent back-of-the-rotation option for Colorado over the last three seasons, and he had a 3.44 ERA over 73 1/3 frames in 2020.

It isn’t known if Senzatela will miss much time beyond the minimum 10 days, and with Kyle Freeland already on the IL, Colorado is facing an early test of its pitching depth.  In filling Senzatela’s rotation spot, the Rockies could turn to Jhoulys Chacin on the big league roster, or perhaps Jose Mujica, Ryan Castellani, or Antonio Santos from the minor leagues.  Veteran Ivan Nova was also recently signed to a minors deal.

Gilbreath isn’t likely an option, since MLB Pipeline’s scouting report notes that the Rockies moved Gilbreath to a relief role in 2020.  A seventh-round pick for Colorado in the 2017 draft, Gilbreath has a 5.35 ERA and 21.6% strikeout rate over 303 minor league innings, none above the high-A level.  Gilbreath has started 59 of his 66 career games down on the farm, but his two-pitch combo of a plus fastball and slider could make him better suited to bullpen work going forward.  Pipeline ranks Gilbreath as the 26th-best prospect in the Rockies’ farm system.

Rockies Make Several Moves

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The Rockies announced that they have designated right-handers Jesus Tinoco and Ashton Goudeau for assignment. They selected the contracts of infielder-outfilder Bret Boswell, left-hander Lucas Gilbreath and Helcris Olivarez, and infielder Colton Welker in corresponding moves.

The 25-year-old Tinoco was part of the return the Rockies received from the Blue Jays for shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in 2015. Tinoco debuted in the majors in 2019 and has since pitched to a respectable 4.03 ERA, though that has come with a woeful 7.19 FIP and 6.85 K/9 against 5.84 BB/9 over 44 2/3 innings.

Of the players the Rockies selected, Welker (No. 7) and Olivarez (No. 15) rank among their top prospects at MLB.com.

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