NL West Notes: Machado, Padres, Rockies, Maybin, Kelly
The Padres continue to be linked to Manny Machado on the rumor mill, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) provides a bit of history on San Diego’s pursuit of the star infielder. It wasn’t until late January that the Padres began to “seriously contemplate” the idea of signing Machado, due to his high asking price and the team’s own hesitation about Machado’s well-documented history of borderline dirty play and a perceived lack of hustle. This led to what one source described as an “ungodly” amount of background work from the team about Machado, and given the Padres’ burgeoning interest, it appears as though their questions have been answered to their satisfaction. In fact, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan hears from two sources that the Padres “are enamored with” Machado, and see him as the veteran centerpiece amidst the club’s upcoming influx of highly-rated minor leaguers. There has been some speculation that Machado, a Miami native, was favoring East Coast teams over West Coast teams, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears that Machado is looking for the best deal, with geography not a factor.
Here’s more from around the NL West…
- Also from Passan’s piece, he reports that the Rockies have been discussing extensions with some of their young starters. No names are mentioned, though it’s fair to assume that names like Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, and perhaps Jon Gray or Antonio Senzatela could be on Colorado’s radar as long-term pieces. Of that group, Freeland, Marquez, and Senzatela don’t become arbitration-eligible until next winter, while Anderson and Gray each have two arb years remaining. As such, there isn’t any tremendous urgency to get an extension worked out with any of these hurlers — as Passan notes, current talks could be more about laying some groundwork for more substantive negotiations next spring. Then again, each pitcher is his own unique case, and it could be that at least one could be eager to lock in a guaranteed payday rather than risk injury, or perhaps a performance dropoff while pitching at Coors Field. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently profiled Freeland as an extension candidate, arguing that a five-year, deal in the range of $35MM-$37MM would seem like a fair contract for the 25-year-old southpaw, who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018.
- Cameron Maybin received interest from multiple teams this winter, though the veteran outfielder told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group that he chose to sign with the Giants due to the opportunity for playing time, and because of Buster Posey‘s recent tweet about the club being “an organization that wants to win.” Maybin has only reached the postseason once in his 12-year career, though the trip was a memorable one, as Maybin won a World Series ring as a member of the 2017 Astros. Of course, the Giants don’t profile as the most obvious potential contender going into the 2019, though there’s still plenty of veteran talent on hand if everyone can stay healthy.
- Carson Kelly is eager to finally get a chance at regular MLB playing time, the new Diamondbacks catcher tells The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required). Acquired by Arizona as part of the Paul Goldschmidt blockbuster, Kelly will see much more action with the D’Backs than he did as the backup behind workhorse Yadier Molina in St. Louis. Molina’s continued longevity meant that Kelly, a former second-round draft pick and top-60 prospect in the sport, became an expendable piece. “In the big leagues, I’ve only had a chance to fail. I’ve never really had a chance to grow,” Kelly said, noting that he found himself pressing at the plate when with the Cardinals since he so rarely got a chance to play. While the Diamondbacks’ three-catcher plan means that Kelly still won’t get a full everyday-catcher workload, Buchanan writes that “Kelly figures to be Catcher 1A,” and could end up getting more at-bats if he plays well.
Padres Met Recently With Manny Machado
The Padres held a meeting earlier this week with star free agent Manny Machado, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. It does not appear that an agreement is imminent, but it seems fair to say that there’s still serious interest from the San Diego organization.
While the Friars have long been connected to Machado, it has never been clear how serious the team was about pulling off a surprise blockbuster. As the club continues to look for ways to move from a rebuilding phase to contention, it has also held a recent sit-down with Bryce Harper, the other shockingly unclaimed prize of the free agent market.
[RELATED: Projecting Payrolls: San Diego Padres]
Padres GM A.J. Preller is said to have met with Machado and his wife. It is not known whether anyone else participated in the meeting. Neither is it clear what level of contract the Padres are willing to put on the table — or whether they have in fact issued a formal offer. Clearly, though, the fact that a meeting occurred at this stage of the proceedings indicates that the connection is a serious one.
AL Notes: Yanks, Machado, Didi, Romo, Cole
The Yankees still aren’t pushing the market for Manny Machado, and probably never will, but also shouldn’t be counted out. That’s the word from Andy Martino of SNY.tv, who reports that the New York org is still keeping tabs on Machado in hopes that a golden opportunity will emerge. The Yanks aren’t interested in utilizing him at short, but would instead plan to put Machado at third while pushing Miguel Andujar across the diamond in the even of a signing. Of course, Martino cautions that it still seems unlikely that anything will come together.
- It’s interesting that the Yankees evidently wouldn’t see Machado as a factor at shortstop. That lends greater credence to the idea that the team really is committed not only to allowing Troy Tulowitzki to take the job there to open the season, but also to paying a big arbitration salary to Didi Gregorius in hopes that he’ll return in relatively short order (and in good form) from Tommy John surgery. As Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports, Gregorius has now begun his throwing program. There’s still a long road ahead, but he seems to be on track to make his anticipated summer return.
- In addition to the Blue Jays, the Twins and Rangers are looking into signing veteran righty Sergio Romo, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Minnesota and Texas organizations, though, only seem to be considering minor-league offers. (Toronto’s offer level isn’t clear.) It’s a bit surprising to hear of such limited interest in the 35-year-old, who still gets plenty of swings and misses and comes with ample late-inning (and opening) experience.
- The Astros battled Gerrit Cole in front of an arbitration panel today, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Obviously, that indicates that the sides were unable to agree to a last-minute deal. The outcome is expected later this week. As MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows, there’s just over $2MM at stake, as Cole is seeking $13.5MM and the club prefers to pay $11.425MM.
Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins
Nolan Arenado‘s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal. Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear. (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.) More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.
Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…
- Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2. Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
- While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports. Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball. That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
- Trevor Bauer‘s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome. There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary. This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season. Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason. He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
- The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link). Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017. The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners. Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017. Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
- “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies. These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.
Padres Meet With Bryce Harper
Feb. 2, 2:53pm: Per Jon Heyman of MLB Network, the San Diego brass sees Harper as a “business/marketing opportunity” and “may now lean” toward securing his services over those of Manny Machado, despite their obvious need at 3B and swarm of young, controllable corner outfielders.
Jan. 31, 11:24pm: Acee has an update on tonight’s meeting, in which Padres general partner Peter Seidler joined GM A.J. Preller and skipper Andy Green to make the pitch. Per the report, the San Diego contingent was “extremely prepared and seemed sincere about wooing” Harper.
11:40am: The Padres’ entry into the Harper bidding is more “extended due diligence,” and is not as serious as their interest in Machado, writes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The surprising lack of suitors for Harper has helped to fuel San Diego’s interest, he adds.
Meanwhile, Rosenthal tweets that the meeting will take place tonight. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi calls the Padres one of four suitors for Harper, alongside the Phillies, White Sox and Nationals, noting that one other club remains “on [the] periphery” (Twitter link).
10:44am: The Padres will meet with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper in Las Vegas today or tomorrow, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Padres ownership is “expected” to be represented at the meeting, and Rosenthal further notes that Harper and agent Scott Boras have met with other teams “in recent days,” though there’s still no signs that a deal close.
The news of a meeting with Harper comes on the heels of last week’s report that the Padres are pursuing Manny Machado and planning a similar sitdown with him, although MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres/Machado meeting has still not taken place. Nevertheless, the Padres’ surprise emergence as a potential suitor for the market’s top two free agents is of note, and the very fact that in-person meetings are being scheduled shows a level of interest that many teams throughout the league have not expressed.
Outfield isn’t exactly an area of need for the Friars, who already have Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy Cordero, Franmil Reyes and Travis Jankowski on the roster. Harper, though, would nonetheless represent an upgrade in right field and would further allow the Padres to explore the trades of younger, controllable outfielders. It’s also possible that Harper’s market hasn’t progressed to the level that San Diego initially expected, and ownership has agreed to a meeting to determine whether there’s a plausible fit. The Padres did sign another high-profile Boras client, Eric Hosmer, to an eight-year deal worth $144MM last winter, and the organization surely feels it is now closer to contending than it was at that point, even if doing so in 2019 is a long shot (with or without Harper).
The Hosmer contract was already a significant expenditure for the typically conservative Padres, and signing either Harper or Machado would represent next-level spending the likes of which has never been seen by the organization and its fans. However, as I noted last week when looking at how Machado could fit into the payroll, it might not be as difficult as many would think for the Padres to accommodate an annual salary of $30MM+ (Harper spurned a 10-year, $300MM offer from the Nationals that has reportedly since been increased).
Myers and Hosmer are the only long-term contracts on the books for the Padres, and Hosmer’s contract was heavily front-loaded. While he’s earning $21MM annually for the next four seasons, Hosmer’s salary will drop to $13MM per year from 2023-25. Myers is owed $5.5MM in 2019 and $22.5MM in each of the three subsequent seasons, although the Padres have been trying to offload that contract for awhile anyhow.
Even speculatively penciling in a hefty $34MM annual rate of pay for Harper and assuming that the organization is unable to trade Myers, there’d only be three seasons in which the Padres were on the hook for all of those salaries. Combined, those three would equal $77.5MM — a huge sum for three players by San Diego’s standards, but come 2023 they’d be paying Harper and Hosmer under $50MM combined with Myers off the books. And, given the Padres’ deluge of oncoming talent from one of the game’s top-ranked farm systems, it’s likely that Harper and Hosmer could be largely surrounded by pre-arbitration players. Fernando Tatis Jr., Luis Urias and Francisco Mejia could all potentially join Harper and Hosmer as regulars in that theoretical lineup by the end of the 2019 season.
None of that is to say that a deal between the two sides is likely, but the financial component may be far easier to navigate than many would expect upon first glance. The meeting is just one step in what would surely be an arduous negotiation process, but it seems clear that current Padres ownership is at least open to the possibility of high-level spending before its hopeful core emerges at the big league level.
AL Central Notes: Romero, Dozier, White Sox
Young Twins hurler Fernando Romero is one of several of the club’s pitchers who could end up in a variety of roles when camp breaks, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. While the rotation appears to be largely settled, perhaps it’s not out of the question that he could force his way into a job there — or, of course, take an opening if there’s an injury. Otherwise, Romero could certainly head back to Triple-A to continue developing and serve as depth. Most intriguingly, though, is the possibility that he’d stay with the MLB club as a reliever. While there’s an argument to be made that doing so now might make it less likely to capture his true upside, the Twins see several elements that make Romero a particularly interesting relief candidate. His prior injury history is one element; it also stands to reason that he’d thrive if allowed to focus on his two best pitches (fastball/slider) in shorter stints. The front office still seems to be contemplating the possibilities — closer competitor? multi-inning piggyback mate for Martin Perez? — with plans to wait and see how things look in Fort Myers.
A few more items from the AL Central …
- All indications are that the Royals believe they can rebound quickly from a down 2018 season and the loss of their prior slate of core players. That seems optimistic from the outside, but we certainly don’t know all that the club does about its own players. First/third baseman Hunter Dozier is one of several players who seems to have a big opportunity ahead of him, as John Sleezer of the Kansas City Star writes. Though he took his lumps in the big leagues last year, Dozier says he felt a change after he settled in at the game’s highest level. “Once things started clicking,” he says, “I got my confidence back and then it became a lot of fun again.” Of course, while Dozier did boost his performance later in the year, his .247/.287/.453 post-All-Star break slash line does highlight the biggest question facing him from an offseason perspective — i.e., whether he’ll consistently get on base. In the field, the team observed big strides, but it remains to be seen whether Dozier can handle third at even a roughly league-average level. He also graded as a very poor baserunner. Clearly, there’s plenty of risk in this profile, but the Royals still seem to have faith — or, at least, feel they need to use the coming season to see what they have in Dozier and a few other as-yet-unestablished players.
- As the White Sox continue to chase Manny Machado, Mark Lazerus of The Athletic (subscription link) looks at what that has meant for some of the team’s existing infielders. Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson, could stand to see their own situations disrupted — whether by a loss of playing time, a change of position, or perhaps even a trade. Both Sanchez and Anderson say they are in favor of anything that moves the club closer to putting a championship contender on the field, though the latter certainly did not sound particularly inclined to hand over his slot at shortstop. “I’m not just going to give him shortstop,” says Anderson of a hypothetical acquisition of Machado. “I’m not just going to bow to him. That’ my position. … It’s mine until somebody takes it.” Just what the team’s plans would be if they do secure Machado’s services aren’t clear. Many have wondered whether a promise to play him at short would be part of the bargain, though GM Rick Hahn did suggest the star has indicated he’ll defer to the team’s positional preferences. In any event, the first order of business is to get Manny (or perhaps another star) to sign on — an ongoing priority that Hahn has made no secret of.
MLBTR Poll: Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?
As we approach February of a second straight long-gestating free agent winter, the top two free agents remain curiously unsigned. Rather than drive a bidding war, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado‘s concurrent free agencies have snailed along with only the White Sox and Phillies as definitive suitors. More so than usual, there is a growing sense of discord between the owners and players, steering these economically-opposed-but-conjoined forces towards a potentially destructive labor negotiation in 2021, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Teams at both ends of the competitive spectrum are contributing to this contentious ecosystem. At one end, bottom feeders like the Orioles, Marlins, and Blue Jays are realizing the long odds of winning their divisions and choosing the judicious (and totally understandable) approach to team building, largely abstaining from free agency. At the same time, there are more than a few teams with wide-open competitive windows who nonetheless remain passive in free agency, citing financial limitations or a need for future flexibility. The competitive balance tax, intended as a punitive fee to help balance the league, has instead become a scapegoat for large market teams to avoid significant free agent spending. Public opinion lands on both sides of the fence, with owners painted as evolving at best and collusive at worst, while the players are viewed, alternatively, as a whiny group of greedy millionaires or a disenfranchised labor force facing an unemployment crisis.
Receiving the brunt of the criticism at present is the Dodgers, back-to-back National League champions whom many expected to make a play for Harper. Despite their reputation as big spenders, however, it’s been quite some time since the Dodgers played the part of spendthrift, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. When they hired former Rays GM Andrew Friedman before the 2015 season, there was excitement over what Friedman could do when given the reins to the Los Angeles machine. What has conspired instead brings to light a whole new question: how much revenue can the Dodgers clear under Friedman’s watchful spending? In theory, they’ve stuck a perfect balance between large market spending and small market creativity, but the reaction hasn’t been quite so laudatory.
For example, in staying true to his ever-creative roster management, Friedman shipped the erratic trio of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood to the attraction-starved Reds for a pair of promising prospects and the remains of Homer Bailey, whom they released. We asked MLBTR readers for your opinion, and 45% thought the Reds won the deal against only 18% who pegged the Dodgers as the winner. There was another 24% who thought the trade was a win-win, but it was an overall underwhelming reaction to a move the Dodgers likely view as a creative means to acquire future assets in return for volatile performers who proffered no future value to the club beyond 2019.
The above trade, combined with their complete lack of interest in Harper and Machado gives the impression of a team disinclined towards large payroll expenditures. Accurate or not, the optics have born itself out in the public reaction – so long as Harper and Machado remain on the market, the cries for ownership to open up their wallets and “do whatever it takes to win” will not cease. And yet, the “throw money at it” approach to problem solving, long en vogue among sports franchise front offices, has gone decidedly out of style.
When pressed about the their lack of interest in Harper, Dodgers president Stan Kasten rejected any idea of frugality on the Dodgers’ part, per Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times. Kasten repeatedly cites attendance numbers to rebuke the idea of fan discontent while also railing against the public invention of false narratives. While that does sound an awful lot like another billionaire using the “fake news” moniker as blanket refutation of public sentiment, it’s worth considering his perspective. On the one hand, the Dodgers are being targeted here not because they’ve made poor decisions, necessarily, but because their market, the current competitive landscape, and traditional expectations of free agency peg them as one of the likeliest overspenders. That they aren’t taking the bait and competing literally at all costs shouldn’t necessarily make them the poster team for the current lack of spending. They did, after all, make the largest cash commitment to a position player thus far this winter.
And yet, with those sky high attendance numbers in tow, it’s certainly possible that the Dodgers are both among the highest-spending franchises in baseball and also among those most at fault for stifling the market. Keep in mind this exploration from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports, this isn’t simply a Dodger issue – this is a categorical questioning of the fairness, or smartness, or rightness of team spending throughout the league. The Dodgers are the team currently left holding the bag, but the Cubs, Yankees, Giants, Astros, Indians and others could all be accused of underspending, to various degrees. Only the Red Sox and Nationals had the gall (pride? guts? willingness?) to exceed the luxury tax in 2018. Of course, it’s not “crossing the tax line” at issue, it’s that the refusal to engage the free agent market leaves wins on the table. The rigidity with which large market teams are refusing to pay the tax is baffling, especially as more and more GMs attest that there’s no mandate from ownership to do so. The party line in front offices across the league isn’t that ownership won’t pay, it’s that ownership is finally hep to the fact that big contracts means big risk that sometimes turns into a big, constant reminder of ownership’s failings. In Los Angeles, the Angels have the best player in baseball, and the best argument against these monster contracts. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a string of six straight division titles and two straight pennants. It’s easy to understand why Kasten believes in his club’s approach.
Time remains for Harper and Machado to land the types of mega-deals they’re seeking, and they will, no doubt, end up with a sum of money that, out of context, will boggle the mind. But in context, it’s more complicated. See Grandal, Yasmani. Teams are spending less in free agency than they used to and it’s incumbent upon the game’s biggest stars to set the market. Anything less would be a disservice to the players who don’t have the same leverage.
So where do MLBTR readers stand on the state of free agency in 2019? Have teams evolved to the point that’s simply frustrating for players? Are owners valuing revenue over contention in a way that threatens the underlying infrastructure of the sport? Should players readjust their expectations? Or is this the battle that’s worth going to the mattresses?
Even, is this just what a flatter marketplace looks like? With opposing sides taking longer than usual to find a middle ground? Regardless, the debate rages on. What do you think?
Have Teams Become Too Conservative In Free Agency?
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No. Teams are evolving and players need to adjust their expectations. 45% (9,098)
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Not necessarily. Teams and players are opposing economic forces, both behaving as they should. 24% (4,856)
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Yes. Teams aren't prioritizing winning as much as revenue and they should open their wallets. 23% (4,613)
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My head hurts. 8% (1,537)
Total votes: 20,104
Quick Hits: SoxFest, Banuelos, Rule Changes
White Sox GM Rick Hahn recognizes there will be some disappointment and finger-pointing if the White Sox don’t come away with Manny Machado or Bryce Harper this offseason, but he’s not ready to say more about the ongoing negotiations than necessary. Hahn did flat-out reject the idea of signing both free agent stars, as two monster contracts would hamper the long-term flexibility to a harmful degree. While Hahn spoke openly about Machado rumors, he is unhappy with the number of leaks, both true and untrue, coming from the Southside, per the Athletic’s James Fegan. As irritating as the leaks are, Hahn assured the crowds at SoxFest that they will continue to confront leaks of all varieties with honesty. Fegan also notes that former top prospect Manny Banuelos has generated more hype than usual for an unestablished 27-year-old. The Sox preempted Banuelos’ minor league free agency by acquiring him via trade from the Dodgers in November. Banuelos has been around the block, spending time with the Braves and Yankees, starting six games for the former in 2015. He put together a solid campaign last season for the Dodgers’ Triple A affiliate, throwing 108 2/3 innings, with a 9-7 record, 3.73 ERA and 10.52 K/9 versus 3.48 BB/9. Now, rumblings from the league office, and more from SoxFest in Chicago…
- Baseball’s offensive landscape has shifted due to record strikeout totals, increased bullpen usage, shorter stints from starting pitchers and more meticulous long-term bullpen management. These trends have been spotlit by the increased media attention paid to service time manipulation, most-famously in the case of Kris Bryant, as well as the Tampa Bay Rays’ recent revelation that has already made its way into common baseball parlance: the opener. In an effort to curb these trends, Major League Baseball is getting set to present the Players’ Association with rule change proposals that may include the institution of a pitch clock, reinstating the 15-day disabled list and increasing the amount of time an optioned player must spend in the minor leagues, back to 15 days from the current minimum of 10 – though nothing official has yet been released, per Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The league office could force feed these rule changes with a year’s notice, but Commissioner Rob Manfred is unlikely to use such an aggressive tactic. It will be up to the players, then, to decide whether these proposals are good for the game.
- Of note, the league has made strides in quickening the pace of the game, as average 9-inning game times sped up from 3 hours, 5 minutes, 11 seconds in 2017, to 3 hours and 44 seconds last year. Trimming mound visits without a pitching change from 7.41 to 4.01 certainly had a hand in cutting out those 4+ minutes. Quantifying the impact of these changes is difficult, giving baseball circles more than enough fodder for debate, though it seems the “state of the game” conversations will continue throughout the next two years leading up to the expiration of the current CBA in 2021.
- White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper won’t kowtow to the wisdom of the opener anytime soon, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun Times. The way Cooper sees it, the role of the starter on the White Sox has not changed, and he still expects to get 6+ innings out of his guys. That’s been a tough ask of late as the Southsiders have built their staff from the ground up via development and trades. Next season is a key year for their young arms, as the trio of Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito look to cement their place in the rotation before the arrival of the next wave of high profile prospects like Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and Dane Dunning, the latter two of whom are working their way back from injury. Ivan Nova rounds out the top four in Cooper’s rotation, with Dylan Covey in competition with Banuelos for the five slot. There are still plenty of arms on the free agent market, however, and GM Rick Hahn says the team is working on 3-4 potential acquisitions. Given the collective injury troubles plaguing Chicago’s cavalcade of young arms, it would not be surprising in the least to see one or two veteran arms brought into camp on cheap or minor-league deals.
NL Notes: Mets, Harper, Machado, Rockies, Dodgers, Kenley, Reds
The Mets haven’t been connected to outfielder Bryce Harper or infielder Manny Machado – the best free agents available this offseason – in part because, “I don’t know how many teams have two $30-million players,” COO Jeff Wilpon said this week (via Tim Healey of Newsday). Wilpon was alluding to the Mets’ highest-paid player, outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who will make just shy of $30MM per year over the next two seasons. But Cespedes is not under contract thereafter, may not even play in 2019 because of heel problems, and will have insurance cover some portion of his money while he’s on the shelf. Still, whether the outfield’s a pressing need for the Mets is debatable, as they have Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Juan Lagares and Keon Broxton headlining that group. Wilpon noted the Mets “have some pretty good lefty outfielders” in Nimmo and Conforto, lessening the need for Harper. Entering the offseason, they weren’t as fortunate on the left side of their infield, where Machado could have made a huge difference. The team has since signed Jed Lowrie, though, and it’s seemingly content to go forward with him as its primary third baseman and Amed Rosario at shortstop. However, even after reeling in Lowrie (and acquiring other pricey veterans in Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson), the Mets are still roughly $40MM under the luxury tax, Healey points out. Nevertheless, the big-market club is apparently content to stay out of the sweepstakes for both Harper and Machado.
More from around the National League…
- Although the Rockies’ Bud Black is entering a contract year, the manager’s not fazed by his uncertain status beyond 2019. “Those thing work themselves out,” said Black (via Nick Groke of The Athletic). If Black wants to stay with the Rockies, it’ll be a surprise if they don’t extend him this offseason or sometime prior to next winter, as he’s easily their most successful manager ever in terms of winning percentage (.548). The Rockies have made the playoffs in each of the well-regarded Black’s two seasons on the job and gone 178-147.
- Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen, who underwent surgery in November to address an irregular heartbeat, told J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group and other reporters Saturday that he’s back at full strength. Pitching in the thin air of Colorado has been particularly problematic in recent years for Jansen, who was hospitalized after a game there last August, but trips to Coors Field won’t be an issue for him going forward. “If I’m hydrated I should be fine,” Jansen said.
- Earlier this offseason, John Farrell interviewed for the Reds’ managerial position – a job that ultimately went to David Bell. While Farrell was among many runners-up in that derby, he’ll still work with the Reds in 2019, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. After serving as a scout and advisor last year, his first in Cincinnati, he’ll function as a pitching consultant during the upcoming season. Farrell, 56, is best known for his run as Boston’s manager from 2013-17, during which the team went 432-378, took home three division titles and won a World Series championship (’13).
Padres Pursuing Manny Machado
TODAY: The Padres are considering a face-to-face meeting with Machado, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin tweets. Machado held some well-publicized meetings with the Yankees, White Sox, and Phillies last month, and it isn’t known if he has sat down with any other mystery suitors. As Lin and Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday (subscription required), however, multiple sources said they’d be “shocked” if San Diego signed Machado or Bryce Harper, with another source describing the Padres as a “longshot” for either player.
FRIDAY: The Padres have jumped into the Manny Machado derby as a late entrant and hope to sign the four-time All-Star as their primary third baseman, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. While the Friars weren’t one of the early “mystery teams” for Machado, Acee notes, they’ve recently entered the bidding given the unexpectedly quiet market for Machado to this point.
The extent to which the Padres are willing to go in order to sign Machado remains to be seen, though the Friars did sign Eric Hosmer to an eight-year contract that came with a $144MM guarantee just a year ago. Machado is two years younger than Hosmer was when he signed that contract and, of course, has a vastly superior overall track record.
Signing Machado would give the Padres a premium third baseman to pair with fast-rising prospects Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Urias. If a Machado agreement does come to fruition, that quartet (Hosmer included) would seemingly comprise San Diego’s infield of the future, as both Tatis and Urias figure to receive the opportunity to cement themselves as regulars at some point in the 2019 season.
San Diego stood out as a plausible “mystery team” for Machado, as noted yesterday at MLBTR, given the team’s wealth of young talent, relatively open long-term payroll outlook and lack of a premier third-base prospect. While paying Machado at an annual rate upward of $30MM would clearly be a steep price for a Padres team that not long ago had a collective team payroll only a bit north of that ($37.9MM in 2010), the organization has just $64.25MM on the books in 2020 and $44MM in 2021. Beyond that, Hosmer’s contract was actually front-loaded, meaning his $21MM salary will actually drop to $13MM per year in the final three seasons of the contract.
Add to those circumstances that the Padres have a veritable tidal wave of young talent on the cusp of the Majors, all of which will be pre-arbitration for at least three seasons and arb-eligible for three years after that, and the team looks like it can support a few sizable annual salaries even if it continues to operate on a fairly restricted budget. Bringing Machado into the fold could slash the team’s 2019 profitability — though adding him to the mix would surely boost ticket sales, at least early on — but the money they still owe to Phil Hughes, Jedd Gyorko and Kazuhisa Makita will all be off the books after 2019 (none of the three are on the 40-man roster any longer). Similarly, the Padres will see their commitment to Hector Olivera finally evaporate after the 2020 campaign.
Payroll could be manipulated/reduced in other ways, as well. Certainly, the first season of Machado’s contract could come at a discounted rate, with higher salaries put into place in the forthcoming seasons. Additionally, the Padres are known to have been seeking a trade partner for Wil Myers, and if they can successfully move the remaining $64MM on his contract (or a portion of it), that’d also go a long way toward clearing room on the ledger for Machado.
At a certain point, given the reportedly tepid interest in Machado was bound to lead to some unexpected clubs jumping into the mix (if, in fact, interest ever was tepid; agent Dan Lozano had plenty to say on the to-date reporting regarding his client in a statement issued last week). The Phillies and White Sox are still known to be serious suitors for Machado’s services, with the Yankees lurking on the periphery at the very least. There were reportedly multiple “mystery” teams in the mix for Machado as well, however, so it’s quite possible that another suitor or two will emerge before he puts pen to paper and brings finality to his long-running free-agent saga.