Manny Machado

Players Lobbied Ownership For Tatis Jr. To Make Padres Opening Day Roster

By TC Zencka | March 30, 2019 at 11:48am CDT

In two straight offseasons, the Padres have acted out of character with the splashy free agent signings of Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. Those same players took it upon themselves this Spring to back one of their own. Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Hosmer and Machado met with Padres owner Ron Fowler over dinner, lobbying for the promotion of young star Fernando Tatis Jr. Fowler was apparently amenable to the idea as Tatis Jr., 20, made the Opening Day roster, as did top pitching prospect Chris Paddack, 23.

In what’s become more-or-less boilerplate around the league, teams have taken to holding presumably-ML-ready prospects in the upper minors for the first few weeks of the season, thereby gaining an extra year of team control. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most obvious current example, while the White Sox finagled a workaround by signing Eloy Jimenez to an extension, prompting concerns over the use of this practice as negotiating leverage. The Padres decision to go against the grain was a breath of fresh air in an otherwise fiscally conservative marketplace.

After all, they aren’t considered favorites for postseason play. But there is a certain harmony to kicking off this era of Padres baseball with Machado and Tatis Jr. together on the left side of the infield, and after spending big on Hosmer and Machado, there’s an argument to be made that now is the time to maximize their odds of competing. The move costs the Padres the possibility of a seventh season of team control down the line, but there’s baseball being played today in San Diego, and it certainly make for a better show with Tatis Jr. in the lineup.

Through two games, Tatis Jr. has three hits in six at-bats while batting sixth in the order. Paddack, 23, is expected to make his debut on Sunday, getting the start at home against the Giants.

Ken Williams Discusses White Sox Pursuit Of Machado, Harper

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2019 at 9:56pm CDT

The White Sox took a rare foray into the high-end free agent market this winter but came away empty-handed in their attempts to sign either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. Machado ended up signing a ten-year, $300MM deal with the Padres, while Harper landed the most guaranteed money in baseball history ($330MM) on a 13-year contract from the Phillies.

In the wake of those enormous deals, White Sox executive VP Ken Williams defended his team against criticism from fans and pundits that the Sox should have spent more to come away with one of the two superstars. “It’s a shame if it’s being portrayed that we were on the cheap on this thing,” Williams told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “That’s really interesting because, holy s—, that’s a quarter of a billion dollars we offered [Machado] with a chance to be higher than what he’s getting.”

In regards to Harper, the White Sox had meetings with the outfielder and agent Scott Boras, but the team ultimately felt Harper’s asking price was simply too high, though Williams liked Harper personally. With Machado, however, the Sox made a much more ardent push, including the contract Williams referenced.

Chicago’s top offer to Machado was a reported $250MM in guaranteed money over eight years, plus a pair of $35MM vesting options for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. Additional escalators and incentives could have maxed the deal out at $350MM over the decade-long span. Based just on the guaranteed years, Machado would’ve received an average annual value of $31.25MM per season, topping the $30MM AAV he’ll receive in San Diego.

“People are lost on the fact that on a yearly basis, our offer was more than San Diego’s….So it was about years guaranteed,” Williams said. “So there is an argument that could be made that our offer was the better of the two. It certainly had more upside for him. All he had to do was basically stay healthy.”

Williams shared in the fanbase’s disappointment that neither player was signed, saying that, “Rest assured that no one is feeling what Rick [White Sox GM Rick Hahn] and I are feeling because every single day since June of last year, this is what we had planned for, the pursuit of both Harper and Machado.

“Harper [was] well out of our range. With Machado, we extended ourselves as far as we could without jeopardizing what we’re going to need to do in the future….Our fans would have been much more disappointed in our inability to keep this next core together. We would have overextended ourselves had we gone to an uncomfortable level.”

Williams isn’t wrong in suggesting that a $250MM offer is a major commitment — after all, prior to Nolan Arenado’s extension with the Rockies and the Harper/Machado signings, only three contracts in baseball history had ever topped the $250MM guaranteed money threshold. The most obvious counter-argument, of course, is that if the Sox were willing to go that far in their offer, it seems short-sighted to then ask Machado to absorb the risk for the vesting option years. It’s no small feat for any player to “basically stay healthy” in their mid-30’s, and it’s hard to imagine any player passing on that guarantee from the Padres for 2027-28 in order to chase the opportunity for only $20MM-$50MM more in salary from the White Sox. (I say “only” since that amount wouldn’t seem particularly enticing to a player like Machado who’d already amassed a fortune. By that same token, an extra $1.25MM in AAV is something of a drop in the bucket someone already making $30MM.)

The comments about how a Machado deal could impact future contracts might be tougher for White Sox fans to swallow. After all, the team has just $15.25MM on the books for the 2020 season, and Tim Anderson is the only player guaranteed money in 2021 and beyond.

As Van Schouwen notes, young stars like Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Carlos Rodon, and Anderson won’t start to get expensive for years. Anderson is already signed to an extension through at least 2022, Rodon has two arbitration years remaining, Moncada won’t be arb-eligible until 2021, Kopech has barely pitched at the MLB level, and Jimenez has yet to even make his Major League debut. Even all five of these players did develop into stars, extensions for all on top of a ten-year Machado contract shouldn’t have been much of a stretch for a club that plays in a major market like Chicago (and just landed a new broadcasting rights contract).

Quick Hits: JDM, Jose Martinez, Marwin, Padres

By Mark Polishuk | February 24, 2019 at 2:31pm CDT

Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez didn’t mince any words in his take on the slowed free agent market of the last two offseasons, describing the situation as “embarrassing for baseball” in comments to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. “You have a business. They say, ’The market is down, the market is changing.’ The market is higher than it’s ever been,” Martinez said. “People are making more money than ever, and they’re trying to suppress it. It’s more of a race towards the bottom now than a race towards the top. You can go right now through everyone’s lineup and you already know who’s going to be in the playoffs. What’s the fun in that? We might as well just fast-forward to the end of the season.” Martinez had his own frustrating trip through free agency last winter, as it wasn’t until late February that he finally landed his current five-year, $110MM deal with the Sox. For the next round of collective bargaining agreement negotiations, Martinez feels the MLBPA needs to be better prepared to counter what Martinez feels is a lack of competitiveness (“Losing is incentivized now.“) from the majority of teams.

In other labor news, representatives from the players’ union will meet with Rangers, White Sox, and Dodgers players on Sunday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. MLBPA reps regularly make separate trips to visit every team during Spring Training, though three teams gathering en masse for a meeting is unusual. “It’s not hard to understand the symbolism: Players are prepared to show unity,” Grant writes.

Here’s more from around baseball…

Rival evaluators were “greatly surprised” that Marwin Gonzalez couldn’t find a three-year contract, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required), as the utilityman instead inked a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins. Agent Scott Boras initially targeted a four-year deal worth around $60MM for his client, and while Gonzalez’s versatility drew interest from many teams, none were willing to approach that price. (MLBTR also predicted a four-year contract for Gonzalez, though only at $36MM.) Olney wonders if utilitymen like Gonzalez are better served by signing earlier rather than later when testing free agency, and Olney also suggested that a reunion between Gonzalez and the Astros could have materialized if Houston had realized the player’s market would be so limited. The Astros seemed to move on early from Gonzalez, acquiring Aledmys Diaz from the Blue Jays to serve in a utility role.
Jose Martinez’s two-year, $3.25MM extension was “something beyond a business decision” for the Cardinals, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters, including Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The unusual deal only covers this season (a pre-arbitration year for Martinez) and the slugger’s first year of arbitration of eligibility, so there technically wasn’t any urgency on the team’s part to get a deal done. In fact, Martinez was the subject of trade rumors for much of the winter, both from MLB teams and in Japan. Not wanting to either sell Martinez to the Japanese team or deprive the player of some added financial security, the extension served as a means to satisfy both Martinez and the Cardinals. (Not to mention the clubhouse as a whole, as other Cardinals players were happy to hear that their popular teammate had a new contract.) For Martinez, he cashes in his first big professional payday, which he said will go to help his family in Venezuela.
Manny Machado’s ten-year, $300MM contract cracked a new spending threshold for the Padres, though as the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Bryce Miller writes, such an acquisition opens up new revenues pathways to account for that expenditure. Machado’s signing has already seen a $1MM boost in ticket sales, according to club chairman Ron Fowler, plus TV and radio ratings are expected to be on the rise. Being featured on national ESPN/FOX games, as well, provides a wider marketing opportunity for the Padres, as well as just gaining more general exposure to the broader public. Of course, the opportunity to create revenue is “all a product of winning,” Padres president of business operations Erik Greupner reminds. “With a player like Manny, there’s immediately a buzz and return on the business side. What’s more important for the long-term is what this translates to on the field.”

Padres Sign Manny Machado

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2019 at 5:30pm CDT

Feb. 21: The Padres have formally announced the signing and confirmed the terms of the contract (10 years, $300MM). To clear room on the 40-man roster, right-hander Dinelson Lamet was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Per Heyman, the deal will pay Machado $30MM annually and contain a six-team no-trade clause (Twitter links). Technically, the first season of the deal is paid out in the form of a $10MM salary and a $20MM signing bonus — that latter of which is not subject to the same level of taxation as Machado’s actual salary. Machado will play third base in San Diego.

Feb. 19, 10:20pm: Machado’s deal doesn’t contain any deferred money, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets.

6:23pm: Machado’s deal will contain limited no-trade protection, Passan tweets. The contract should be formally announced Thursday or Friday, he adds.

12:58pm: There are some key elements of the deal still to be worked out, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Notably, the sides have yet to hammer out terms on trade protection. That said, it seems the final pieces are not expected to pose an obstacle to the contract’s completion. Machado will receive the $300MM on a fairly evenly spread basis, with the opt-out chance midway through the deal.

11:27am: The Padres have agreed to terms on a free agent contract with star infielder Manny Machado, according to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s a ten-year, $300MM deal for the MVP Sports Group client, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). The contract includes an opt-out after the fifth season, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).

Nothing is formally concluded here, it bears noting. If nothing else, it seems a physical will still need to be completed. Padres chairman Ron Fowler says a deal is not complete, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter), saying the sides are “continuing discussions.” Of course, that hardly means there isn’t an agreement in principle on the key terms.

Certainly, the White Sox believe they’ve lost their primary winter target. VP Kenny Williams expressed shock in comments to reporters. “We could not go to that $300MM level,” he said (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, Twitter links). Williams indicated that he had believed the South Siders were the high bidders, and he maintains “there was more potential for him to make more here than that reported deal.” It seems, though, that Machado preferred the greater guaranteed money and other elements of his new deal to the structure proposed by a White Sox organization that had rolled out quite a welcome mat, including the acquisition of Machado’s comrades Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay.

It’s a stunning result for the 26-year-old Machado, whose long-running open-market saga has coincided with that of fellow star Bryce Harper. It took some time, but Machado will still spend the bulk of Spring Training with his new teammates.

Last year, the Friars shocked the baseball world by outbidding the market for first baseman Eric Hosmer. Now, they’ve followed up that move with a much bigger commitment to an even better and younger player.

The move plainly sets the Padres organization on a course to compete in the near-term, though the investment will hopefully coincide with a rather lengthy competitive window. It’s reasonable to wonder, though, whether this move sets the stage for further action this winter. The Padres have a fairly crowded outfield group, a ton of top prospect talent, and clear room to improve the MLB pitching staff. They could consider pursuing the top remaining open-market pitchers (Craig Kimbrel, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez) while revisiting trade talks on other starters.

[RELATED: MLBTR Free Agent Tracker]

It’s not hard to see how this signing could have a ripple effect in the market, with the potential for a highly intriguing late-spring reignition of the hot stove. If nothing else, there’s now a clear mark for Harper to try to top, with several teams potentially interested in landing him after missing on Machado.

The 10/300 price is precisely where many anticipated Machado landing at the outset of the market. It sets a free agent record in terms of total guarantee, at least before adjusting for inflation, though falls shy of Giancarlo Stanton’s extension and may soon be topped by Harper’s own deal.

Despite his excellence to this point of his career, and the promise of many more productive seasons to come, Machado entered the market with some questions. He raised eyebrows with some questionable acts and words during the postseason, leaving many fans — and perhaps some organizational leaders — with the sense that, as he himself put it, he’s “not the type of player that’s going to be ’Johnny Hustle.'”

Clearly, those oft-cited comments didn’t cost Machado a chance at a massive contract. He also picked up support of several former teammates and coaches, so it’s not as if there weren’t countervailing facts. Clearly, though, the ill-advised words didn’t help his cause. We’ll never know the full extent of the impact, but reduced interest from even a single potential suitor could have changed the way the market took shape. The Yankees never fully engaged despite making sense on paper, while it seems the Phillies passed on a chance to outbid the more budget-conscious Padres, though those and other organizations were surely weighing other factors as well.

In truth, the hustle chatter held such attention in no small part due to Machado’s otherwise mostly impeccable resume. He has topped 6 fWAR in three of the past four seasons, owing to a combination of outstanding glovework and well-rounded offensive production. Despite some knee issues earlier in his career, Machado has played all 162 games in two seasons (2015, 2018) and missed just 11 total contests in the two intervening campaigns.

Over his seven seasons in the majors, Machado carries a .282/.335/.487 batting line with 175 home runs. That perhaps understates his present ability with the bat, though, as Machado has posted 130+ wRC+ campaigns in three of the past four years and has hit between 33 and 37 long balls in all four seasons. He has also successfully honed his plate discipline over the years, setting career-best marks in 2018 with a 9.9% walk rate and 14.7% strikeout rate.

It’s a more interesting question on the defensive side of things. Machado had long graded as an outstanding defender at third base, but drew negative reviews upon shifting back to his native shortstop in 2018. Of course, the numbers reversed somewhat after he landed with the Dodgers in a mid-season trade, perhaps indicating that he still has the potential to handle short at an average or better clip if surrounded by the appropriate analytical resources and adjacent defenders.

Regardless, the plan seems to be for Machado to slide back to the hot corner in San Diego. The club has been searching for a piece there all winter long. Indications are that Luis Urias (with an assist from Greg Garcia) will keep the seat warm at shortstop while uber prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. finishes his development. Urias could ultimately slide back to second, though that position is occupied for the time being by veteran Ian Kinsler. Of course, as noted above, it still seems premature to guess at the overall roster picture, as the Padres could explore a nearly endless variety of complementary moves.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

MLBTR Poll: The Manny Machado Signing

By Jeff Todd | February 20, 2019 at 8:18am CDT

We all knew it would happen at some point, yet somehow it came as a surprise when Manny Machado finally reached agreement on a monster free agent contract. After months of hand-wringing over how much he’d take down, Machado secured a hefty ten-year, $300MM commitment — albeit from a rather unexpected place.

Here at MLBTR, we actually predicted that Machado would secure an even lengthier deal at that $30MM AAV. The bidding frenzy we foresaw never quite developed, as several larger-market clubs stayed on the sideline, but there was still sufficient interest to produce the first-ever $300MM free agent contract.

First question (link for app users):

For the Padres, the move brings in a youthful superstar just ahead of the anticipated crest of a wave of internally developed talent. Machado will be on the books for at least five seasons — he’ll have an opt-out opportunity after his age-30 campaign — and could help open a lengthy contention window. Of course, there’s also risk aplenty in a signing of this magnitude, particularly for an organization that doesn’t have immense payroll capacity and has already placed two larger deals on its books (Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer).

Second question (link for app users):

As noted above, we anticipated entering the winter that a few more bidders would play major roles in the proceedings. Phillies GM Matt Klentak suggested that strict, emotion-less valuations kept his team from increasing its bid. The Yankees seemingly remained on the periphery, seemingly operating with an even tighter grip on their own payroll space. And that was about it … except for the White Sox. The South Siders were obviously all-in on Machado, pulling out all the stops to make an attractive landing spot and putting up a big offer that included more earning upside (but a smaller guarantee) than the one he ultimately took. In the wake of Machado’s decision, the club’s top execs expressed no small amount of disappointment yesterday at missing on him.

Third question (link for app users):

Followup Notes On The Manny Machado Deal

By Steve Adams | February 19, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

After nearly four months of waiting, Manny Machado’s free agency came to a close Tuesday when he agreed to terms with the Padres on a 10-year, $300MM contract that represents the largest free-agent contract ever signed in American professional sports. Only Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM contract has ever guaranteed a player more money. Machado was pursued by other teams, most notably the Phillies, White Sox and (early in the offseason) the Yankees. While New York was already known to be out of the mix for Machado, the other two primary suitors still had hopes of reeling in one of the offseason’s biggest fish. With that in mind, here are some early reactions to the agreement and some notes on how those who missed out on Machado may proceed in the wake of today’s news…

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets some insight into how the negotiations themselves played out. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, initially asked teams to submit their best offers in the final week of 2018. At the time, Machado had six clubs involved to varying extents. Those offers were shy of the $300MM guarantee Machado’s camp coveted, though, and rather than simply take the best offer presented, the agency continued working to drive up Machado’s price tag. Ultimately, of course, that proved to be a wise strategy. It’s not known just where Machado’s offers sat in early January, though Lozano made the rare move to publicly speak out against reports on Machado’s market, emphatically calling reports of Machado’s top offer sitting at seven years and $175MM “inaccurate and reckless … [and] completely wrong.”
The White Sox offered Machado a higher annual value than the Padres but less guaranteed overall money, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Chicago’s top bid for Machado was a $250MM guarantee over an eight-year term with vesting options and incentives that could’ve escalated the contract’s value to $350MM. It’s rare, however, to see players max out their incentives and escalators (particularly on a deal of this length), so it’s not surprising that Machado opted for the larger guarantee. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds a bit more context, reporting that Chicago’s proposal contained a pair of $35MM vesting options in addition to incentives and escalators.
Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that a high-ranking Padres official flatly informed him that the team will not sign Bryce Harper following the agreement with Machado. The Padres’ payroll will be in the neighborhood of $110MM — a franchise record — but while ownership is clearly willing to spend more than ever before in 2019, it’d still be a shock to see another seismic addition. Despite that report, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Friars won’t completely rule out adding Harper. The Padres have clearly done their due diligence on Harper, so perhaps they’ll continue to lurk on the periphery in case Harper’s view on a shorter-term deal changes.
Acee’s column also offers a look at how the Padres came to reach an agreement with Machado. San Diego, according to Acee, hadn’t even expressed legitimate interest, let alone discussed an offer, until mid-January. Their early meetings revealed the asking price to be considerably higher than expected, but, as Acee notes, general manager A.J. Preller’s “creativity and relentlessness” ultimately swayed ownership into approving the expenditure. At this time, Acee adds, there’s no immediate plan to add another starting pitcher to the mix. Friars fans in particular will want to be sure to read the column in its entirety, which contains quotes from several Padres players on the reported agreement.
Although Phillies owner John Middleton infamously spoke of spending “stupid” money early in the offseason, the price for Machado apparently reached a point where the team’s baseball operations officials simply weren’t comfortable. “There’s a certain value that we believe a player brings and we were willing to get aggressive on this,” general manager Matt Klentak told Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News. “If the reports are true, then this contract will exceed our valuation, and sometimes you have to be willing to walk away.” Klentak confirmed that the Phillies are still interested in Harper but cautioned that the team simply wouldn’t allow itself “to be put into a position where we have to do something at all costs.” There’s no way of knowing whether the Phils objectively value Harper at a higher number than Machado, but agent Scott Boras will likely be aiming to topple Machado’s guarantee and Klentak didn’t speak like someone gearing up for a bidding war.
White Sox general manager Rick Hahn expressed “frustration” and “disappointment” after learning of Machado’s deal with the Padres, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Sox met with Machado’s camp Monday and presented an increased offer (as noted above), believing that may put them over the edge. Ultimately, though, it seems as though owner Jerry Reinsdorf knew the point at which he felt he had to walk away. “[The Padres’] ownership group did a great job in trumping everyone else,” said Hahn while also commending Reinsdorf’s “willingness to step up” with what would’ve easily been a franchise-record contract for the ChiSox, who have never signed a player for more than Jose Abreu’s $68MM. Hahn indicated that the White Sox eventually topped out because of a need to “project putting together a total winning roster, and keeping the young players that will ultimately earn into greater dollars themselves.” As for the money earmarked for Machado, Hahn said it would be spent, though not necessarily this offseason (Twitter link via Van Schouwen). It’s worth noting, of course, that next winter’s free-agent market has its own share of high-profile names (e.g. Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Xander Bogaerts, Madison Bumgarner).

Padres Notes: Free Agents, Myers, Diaz

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | February 19, 2019 at 10:32am CDT

One year after he went through free agency, Padres first baseman Eric Hosmer discussed his experience and the team’s intriguing pursuit of some new big-ticket items, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Public reports can capture elements of what’s going on behind the scenes, he says, “but at the end of the day you really just don’t know” until the ink dries. While he wasn’t able to help with an understanding of where the Friars stand in their pursuit of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, Hosmer did call it “exciting” and “motivating” to hear of the club’s efforts. “It just shows where this organization is at,” he said. “Where we’re at in the process right now, we’re trying to win baseball games.”

White Sox Still “Strong Factor” In Machado Market

By Jeff Todd | February 18, 2019 at 8:12pm CDT

The White Sox are a “strong factor” in the market for star infielder Manny Machado, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Attention has in recent days focused on the Padres, but it seems it’s still a multi-horse race, with the Phillies also known to be in the picture as well.

It isn’t terribly surprising to hear that the Chicago organization still factors into the discussion. Just how active the club is in its bidding isn’t clear, but the South Siders are continuing to dangle carrots (in less-than-subtle ways) in an attempt to lure Machado to Chicago.

Still, it’s notable that the White Sox evidently remain a legitimate potential landing spot — if only because that’d potentially make for much-needed leverage for Machado’s representatives. With the jockeying surrounding Machado and fellow unsigned star Bryce Harper perhaps entering a final phase, those players’ respective agents need all the cards they can get their hands on.

Recent indications are that the Padres have offered Machado something greater than $240MM and perhaps reaching $280MM. That sets a rather high bar — loftier, perhaps, than the level of contract the White Sox were reportedly dangling one month ago.

Even if the White Sox are willing to top the Friars, there could be further competition. Rosenthal suggests that the front offices of all three organizations see Machado as a better fit than Harper, though ownership preferences may be a bit different. Perhaps, then, there’s still some room for a late run-up in the bidding. Harper’s ongoing presence, and largely overlapping slate of bidders, makes for another factor in this complicated matchmaking dance.

Padres Reportedly Offering $250MM Or More To Machado, Harper

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2019 at 8:08pm CDT

8:08PM: Rival general managers have been told that Machado’s offer from the Padres is at least eight years/$240MM with deferred money, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Some other GMs, however, have been told that Machado has been offered $280MM.

7:42PM: The Padres are thought to have offered Manny Machado a contract in the neighborhood of eight years and $250MM, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link), while the club has reportedly issued an even larger offer to Bryce Harper. The exact total of the Machado offer is, as Heyman noted, an estimate, as that deal could include deferred money or some adjustment based on California’s higher taxation rates. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (also via Twitter) believes the Padres’ offer to Machado is beyond the $250MM mark, though Acee isn’t certain about the number of years involved in the contract.

While still short of the potential record-setting numbers thrown around for both Harper and Machado prior to the start of free agency, and even seemingly still shy of the $300MM threshold, it’s worth noting that only three contracts in baseball history (Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM deal with the Marlins, and Alex Rodriguez’s deals with the Rangers and Yankees) have topped the $250MM plateau. The Padres’ two offers are more akin to the type of long-term deals many expected the two free agent superstars to receive en masse this winter.

Either deal would represent easily the biggest contract in the history of the Padres franchise, far outpacing the $144MM signed by Eric Hosmer last offseason. While San Diego has never traditionally been a big spender, MLBTR’s Rob Huff recently made the case that the team is capable of handling the giant contract required to land Machado or Harper. Hosmer and Wil Myers (at admittedly hefty salaries) are the only contracts on the books beyond the 2020 season, plus the Padres have an inexpensive core of talent headed to the big leagues in the form of their top-rated minor league system. Between some creative contractual measures like deferrals, opt-outs, a dual option (a recent favorite of Scott Boras, Harper’s agent), there certainly seems to be room to fit a mega-contract under San Diego’s payroll going forward.

Padres executives have personally met with both Harper and Machado in recent weeks, and San Diego’s late entry as a suitor for both players seems to have been inspired by the fact that both are still on the market this deep into the offseason. In short, the Padres could be a classic “mystery team” scenario — the unexpected club that emerges as a late bidder and potentially walks away with a star. It should be noted that the Padres surprised many by signing Hosmer last year, and also when they landed James Shields in February 2015, during A.J. Preller’s news-making (and ultimately ill-fated) first offseason as San Diego’s general manager.

Reports from earlier today suggested that the Phillies were considered as the favorites to sign Harper, though connected teams like the White Sox, Giants, and Nationals hadn’t yet been ruled out. Machado’s market has been more limited, with only the Phillies and White Sox known to be clear bidders, and the Yankees perhaps on the outskirts looking for a shorter-term deal. The White Sox had reportedly made a bid of seven years and $175MM to Machado, though his agent strongly denied those numbers were accurate.

NL West Notes: Machado, Padres, Rockies, Maybin, Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | February 17, 2019 at 6:32pm CDT

The Padres continue to be linked to Manny Machado on the rumor mill, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) provides a bit of history on San Diego’s pursuit of the star infielder. It wasn’t until late January that the Padres began to “seriously contemplate” the idea of signing Machado, due to his high asking price and the team’s own hesitation about Machado’s well-documented history of borderline dirty play and a perceived lack of hustle. This led to what one source described as an “ungodly” amount of background work from the team about Machado, and given the Padres’ burgeoning interest, it appears as though their questions have been answered to their satisfaction. In fact, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan hears from two sources that the Padres “are enamored with” Machado, and see him as the veteran centerpiece amidst the club’s upcoming influx of highly-rated minor leaguers. There has been some speculation that Machado, a Miami native, was favoring East Coast teams over West Coast teams, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) hears that Machado is looking for the best deal, with geography not a factor.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

Also from Passan’s piece, he reports that the Rockies have been discussing extensions with some of their young starters. No names are mentioned, though it’s fair to assume that names like Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, and perhaps Jon Gray or Antonio Senzatela could be on Colorado’s radar as long-term pieces. Of that group, Freeland, Marquez, and Senzatela don’t become arbitration-eligible until next winter, while Anderson and Gray each have two arb years remaining. As such, there isn’t any tremendous urgency to get an extension worked out with any of these hurlers — as Passan notes, current talks could be more about laying some groundwork for more substantive negotiations next spring. Then again, each pitcher is his own unique case, and it could be that at least one could be eager to lock in a guaranteed payday rather than risk injury, or perhaps a performance dropoff while pitching at Coors Field. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently profiled Freeland as an extension candidate, arguing that a five-year, deal in the range of $35MM-$37MM would seem like a fair contract for the 25-year-old southpaw, who finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018.
Cameron Maybin received interest from multiple teams this winter, though the veteran outfielder told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group that he chose to sign with the Giants due to the opportunity for playing time, and because of Buster Posey’s recent tweet about the club being “an organization that wants to win.” Maybin has only reached the postseason once in his 12-year career, though the trip was a memorable one, as Maybin won a World Series ring as a member of the 2017 Astros. Of course, the Giants don’t profile as the most obvious potential contender going into the 2019, though there’s still plenty of veteran talent on hand if everyone can stay healthy.
Carson Kelly is eager to finally get a chance at regular MLB playing time, the new Diamondbacks catcher tells The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (subscription required). Acquired by Arizona as part of the Paul Goldschmidt blockbuster, Kelly will see much more action with the D’Backs than he did as the backup behind workhorse Yadier Molina in St. Louis. Molina’s continued longevity meant that Kelly, a former second-round draft pick and top-60 prospect in the sport, became an expendable piece. “In the big leagues, I’ve only had a chance to fail. I’ve never really had a chance to grow,” Kelly said, noting that he found himself pressing at the plate when with the Cardinals since he so rarely got a chance to play. While the Diamondbacks’ three-catcher plan means that Kelly still won’t get a full everyday-catcher workload, Buchanan writes that “Kelly figures to be Catcher 1A,” and could end up getting more at-bats if he plays well.

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