Manny Machado

Mets Notes: McNeil, Free Agents, D’Arnaud, Davis

By Mark Polishuk | January 24, 2019 at 9:50am CDT

The latest from the Amazins….

Teams have shown trade interest in utilityman Jeff McNeil, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required), though Rosenthal is doubtful the Mets would move the 26-year-old. McNeil’s first MLB season saw him hit an eye-popping .329/.381/.471 over 248 plate appearances for New York, numbers that seemingly had him penciled in as the Mets’ second baseman in 2019. After the acquisitions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie, however, McNeil may spend more time in the outfield than the infield next season as the team intends to deploy him as a depth piece all over the diamond. Given his six years of team control and the lengthy injury history of several Mets veterans, it makes sense that New York isn’t looking to deal McNeil, though he would certainly be one of the club’s better trade chips if GM Brodie Van Wagenen wanted to make another bold move.
The larger focus of Rosenthal’s piece is on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, as Rosenthal opines that the Mets should be pursuing either player as a way to make a final push as a true contender. The Mets haven’t been considered as prime candidates for either superstar free agent since both players seem out of New York’s price range, though Rosenthal notes that the Mets will recoup a lot of money from insurance on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. Earlier today on MLBTR, Steve Adams listed the Mets as a reasonable candidate as one of the “mystery teams” who are reportedly in the hunt for Machado.
Travis d’Arnaud is another player who could be taking on a multi-position role for the Mets next season, which the catcher is eager to assume. “Wherever the team needs me or wants me to play, I’ll play,” d’Arnaud tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post. More than anything, d’Arnaud just wants to get back on the field in general, after missing almost all of 2018 due to a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. This was the latest in a long list of injuries for d’Arnaud, which is why the Mets signed Wilson Ramos and relegated d’Arnaud to backup catcher, or perhaps hybrid bench duty as a catcher or corner infielder. There’s also still a chance d’Arnaud could be traded, though he seems to have a clear path to the backup job after Kevin Plawecki was dealt to Cleveland.
Speaking of roster versatility, J.D. Davis is open to helping the Mets as a pitcher, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes. “It’s a set skill that I have — a good arm and a good fastball — I can go out there and compete and throw some strikes and get some outs, that’s for sure,” Davis said. The Mets don’t yet have any plans to work Davis out as a pitcher during Spring Training, DiComo reports, though he notes that Van Wagenen has twice referenced Davis’ ability on the mound since acquiring Davis from the Astros earlier this month. Davis pitched in college and owns a 92-mph fastball, which he showed off in three mop-up duty relief outings for Houston over the last two seasons. For now, however, his primary role with the Mets will be as depth at both corner infield and corner outfield spots.

Trying To Identify “Mystery Teams” For Manny Machado

By Steve Adams | January 24, 2019 at 7:19am CDT

The apparent staring contest between Manny Machado, the White Sox and the Phillies doesn’t seem to have an end in sight, and the saga will surely drag on even longer if reports of unidentified suitors prove true. With the identities of said teams (assuming for a moment that they do indeed exist) yet unknown — it’s perhaps worthwhile to at least take a high-level pass throughout the league to see just who could plausibly emerge as a surprise dark-horse in the Machado auction.

It seems safe to eliminate the league’s perennial lowest spenders. While the Rays have an atypical amount of flexibility even after signing Charlie Morton, it’s impossible to imagine a team with this payroll history sustaining even a $25MM annual salary — let alone a salary of $30MM or more. Similarly, the Athletics figure to be priced out of the Machado market, as do the Pirates and the Marlins (the latter of which, once again, is rebuilding anyway). The Reds are already projected to set a new franchise-record payroll in 2019, and adding Machado when they already have strong infield options isn’t all that plausible.

Great as Machado is, there are also some clubs who simply don’t have space in their infield for him. The Astros could afford to add Machado to their ranks, for instance, but Houston wouldn’t displace any of Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve to accommodate Machado. The Nationals have Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner and newly signed Brian Dozier comprising their non-first-base infield slots. I wouldn’t characterize the group of Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo as quite as strong an infield mix, but it’s fair to say that the Braves probably don’t have space for yet another left-side infielder, barring a trade. Machado would also take Atlanta’s payroll to record heights.

Looking further, it’s unlikely that a team in the early stages of a pure rebuild is going to sign Machado the type of contract he’s seeking. The Royals are trying to pare back payroll, and the Tigers have yet to signal that they’re ready to emerge from their own restructuring. The Orioles aren’t going to bring him back into the mix on the heels of selling off the vast majority of their appealing veteran assets last summer. If it turns out that the Mariners wanted to clear money for Machado and/or Bryce Harper all along this winter, well then kudos to Jerry Dipoto on the most entertaining offseason in MLB history. But, since we’re trying to be rational, it seems like a lock that Machado doesn’t align with Seattle’s “re-imagining” movement.

Several mid-market teams are said to be facing payroll constraints that’ll probably keep them out of the Machado market. The Indians have been trying to shed payroll for much of the winter, and the Diamondbacks are currently being weighed down by huge commitments to Zack Greinke and Yasmany Tomas, the latter of whom is no longer even on the roster. The Rockies’ projected payroll already checks in north of $150MM, making a deal tough to envision. And if they’re going to give this type of annual salary to anyone, they’d probably prefer to offer it to Nolan Arenado, anyhow.

There are also several teams who typically spend heavily but are again refraining from doing so. The Dodgers don’t really have a need on the left side of the infield, but they could conceivably move Justin Turner or perhaps even Corey Seager to second base if it meant opening the hot corner for a player of Machado’s caliber, but there have at least been some reports that L.A. is vying to stay below the luxury tax line, and they’ve not spent like a big-market club to date. The Cubs could bid farewell to Addison Russell in some capacity and install Machado at shortstop, but persistent reports out of Chicago suggest their budget isn’t even flexible enough to bolster the relief corps. The Giants seem likelier to rebuild than to add a free agent of this magnitude, and the Rangers have been zeroed in on smaller-scale additions as they embark on their own soft reset. The Blue Jays are no strangers to large payrolls ($160MM+ in each of the past two seasons) but have made only marginal additions as they face the reality of a top-heavy division and the disbanding of the core that recently carried them to the ALCS.

The Red Sox arguably don’t have a dire need for Machado, though they could likely find a way to fit him into the mix. However, they’re just a few million shy of the top luxury bracket, and some reports have implied that an unwillingness to top that threshold is preventing them from even adding a reliever to the ’pen. They’re picking an odd time to draw a line in the sand, but Machado never seemed all that likely a target anyhow. Their chief rival, the Yankees, made (and very arguably still makes) sense on paper, but it doesn’t seem like they’ll outbid the field to further muddle an already crowded infield picture.

Beyond this grouping, of course, we know that both the White Sox and Phillies are legitimate Machado suitors who needn’t be explored as we try to pin down any potential mystery clubs. All of that said, there are still six clubs that strike me as reasonable guesses when trying to pin down potential Machado mystery clubs. Here’s a look at the remaining teams, and how/why they could conceivably add Machado to the mix (listed alphabetically):

Angels: The Halos have larger priorities — namely, trying to extend Mike Trout — but it wouldn’t be that hard to fit Machado into the mix. Zack Cozart could be slotted in at second base to make room for Machado at third base. Recent comments from GM Billy Eppler have suggested that the Angels’ spending is likely near its max following the addition of Cody Allen, but they only have Trout under control for another two seasons. There’s every reason to try to maximize the chance of winning immediately, and the Albert Pujols albatross will be off the books after the 2021 season. If the Halos somehow find a way to extend Trout, they’d only be on the hook for all three mega-salaries for one season (2021).
Brewers: Milwaukee is already in record payroll territory, but Ryan Braun is a free agent after the 2020 season and they’ve watched the division-rival Cubs largely sit this offseason out. With a clear infield need, the Brewers could theoretically add Machado, slide Travis Shaw over to second base and boast an exceptionally deep lineup. Milwaukee has just $48MM in guaranteed money on the 2020 payroll and $35.5MM in 2021. There’s likely some bad blood after October’s Jesus Aguilar incident — Christian Yelich made his feelings toward Machado known after that game — but presumably the hatchet could be buried if Machado were suddenly helping the Brewers win an extra five-plus games per year for the foreseeable future.
Cardinals: President of baseball ops John Mozeliak certainly didn’t sound like someone who was planning on a big free-agent splash over the weekend, but the Cards were prioritizing corner-infield bats earlier this winter prior to acquiring Paul Goldschmidt and could still fit Machado into the fold. Doing so would likely mean sliding either Paul DeJong or Matt Carpenter to second base for a season — the latter of which is probably a particularly unpalatable defensive alignment. But the St. Louis lineup would be exceptionally deep. As mentioned above with regard to the Rockies and Arenado, perhaps the Cardinals would simply prefer to give Goldschmidt a $30MM+ annual salary on an extension if they have the resources available, but Machado is a half decade younger.
Mets: The Mets’ infield is overcrowded as is — so much so that Jeff McNeil is likely to play in the outfield next season — so they’d have to make a move in order to fit Machado into the mix. But new GM Brodie Van Wagenen has been vocal about his win-now attitude, and shipping Todd Frazier off in order to open regular time for Machado at the hot corner isn’t outlandish. What could be outlandish would be the Wilpon family green-lighting a payroll north of $160MM, but even with all the moves they’ve made, it’s not that hard to see an on-paper scenario where Machado fits into the mix.
Padres: San Diego’s hopeful core is quite young, which presents them with the potential to carry a few notable veteran long-term contracts. Last offseason’s Eric Hosmer deal already looks regrettable, but the Padres did front-load the deal, so their annual commitment to Hosmer drops to $13MM beginning in 2023. The Padres project at a payroll just south of $84MM right now and have about $64MM on the books next season. The Padres haven’t historically been big spenders in the past, but the current ownership group did authorize a $108MM Opening Day payroll back in 2015. The Padres are known to be looking for a third baseman, and Machado would give them a long-term answer.
Twins: The Twins are the only team in baseball that doesn’t have a single dollar committed to any player in 2020. With a completely blank payroll slate, they’d have little problem fitting a major salary onto the long-term books. Looking at the 2019 roster, the infield appears full at first glance, but Machado is the type of player for whom a team should be willing to shuffle the deck. Miguel Sano could slide over to first base, pushing C.J. Cron to the bench role that Tyler Austin currently occupies. A $4.8MM bench bat would be an overpay for a team like the Twins, and owner Jim Pohlad would need to approve a record payroll by as much as $10MM for the upcoming season. That, however, would be a one-year expenditure before payroll naturally regressed. Meanwhile, the Indians aren’t improving, the Tigers and Royals aren’t threats to contend, and if any club should have an interest in keeping Machado away from the ChiSox, one would imagine it’d be a division rival.

Padres “Checked In” On Four Prominent Free Agents

By Jeff Todd | January 23, 2019 at 1:51pm CDT

Those wondering whether the Padres will make a big move or two this winter still don’t have an answer, but indications are that the club is at least exploring the possibility of just that. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, via Twitter, the San Diego organization has “checked in” on four prominent free agents.

Most notably, the Friars are said to have at least reached out to both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, the top two available free agents. San Diego GM A.J. Preller has also put in calls regarding utility man Marwin Gonzalez and third baseman Mike Moustakas, per the report.

Importantly, it’s far from clear whether the Padres are a serious pursuer of any of these high-profile names. Indeed, Heyman says it’s not even known if any have received offers. And it stands to reason that the club will tread carefully.

Still, it bears mentioning that the Pads are among the organizations hunting around in these markets. Though we’ve heard some chatter on all four players throughout the winter, it’s entirely unclear at this point where they’ll end up.

It’s worth noting, of course, that Machado and Harper are in a different stratosphere altogether from Gonzalez and Moustakas. Landing one of the former two would be a franchise-altering decision that would come with huge consequences — and, as Heyman notes, ramped-up expectations of a near-term competitive timeline. The latter two ballplayers are established, quality veterans who would no doubt improve the overall roster but not come with nearly the upside (or require nearly the same level of investment).

Having shocked the market by landing Eric Hosmer last year, and with a clear imperative to make some strides in the standings, the San Diego organization has to be considered at least a conceptually possible dark horse threat on these (if not also other) players. That’s true even if adding one of these players would require some corresponding trades, as the Padres’ mass of intriguing but not-yet-fully-established MLB talent has long seemed likely to be cleared out to some degree.

Poll: How Much Money For Manny?

By Connor Byrne | January 20, 2019 at 9:34am CDT

As an elite, in-his-prime player, Manny Machado isn’t the type of free agent who comes along very often in Major League Baseball. With that in mind, Machado (and fellow 26-year-old superstar free agent Bryce Harper) no doubt came into the offseason with designs on signing one of the richest contracts in the history of the sport. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted Machado would eclipse Giancarlo Stanton’s record $325MM extension from 2014. Meanwhile, FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Fancred’s Jon Heyman forecast that Machado would earn less than Stanton, but they did peg him to surpass the $275MM guarantee Alex Rodriguez received as a free agent in 2007.

While Machado may still outdo Stanton or at least Rodriguez, his childhood idol, his future earning power looks far less certain two-plus months into his trip to the open market. Free agency has been a surprisingly protracted process for Machado – who, along with Harper – remains available just a few weeks from spring training. And there has been a stunning lack of publicly reported teams after Machado, who counts the White Sox and Phillies among his most ardent suitors. Reports over the past week have indicated the White Sox issued either a seven-year, $175MM offer or an eight-year, $250MM proposal to Machado, either of which would’ve looked like a light guarantee for him at the beginning of the offseason. However, agent Dan Lozano released a strongly worded statement swatting down those rumors and insisting “reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.”

Shortly after Lozano sent his denial to the media, new reports emerged suggesting serious interest in Machado stretches beyond Philadelphia and Chicago. There are supposedly two unnamed teams in the mix for Machado, and one, it seems, has put out the richest offer for the four-time All-Star infielder. Machado is reportedly primed to choose the highest bidder, but it’s unclear how close he is to signing. When the former Oriole and Dodger finally does put pen to paper, though, do you expect him to reel in a record-breaking guarantee?

(poll link for app users)

Mystery Teams Reportedly Pursuing Manny Machado

By Jeff Todd | January 18, 2019 at 8:03pm CDT

9:25pm: Machado has held an in-person meeting with one of the mystery clubs “in recent days,” Martino tweets. The report also indicates that Machado is expected to choose the biggest contract offer he’s presented, with other factors evidently taking a back seat.

8:03pm: The presence or absence of so-called “mystery teams” — unidentified but active pursuers of a given player — has long been a subplot of the market for Manny Machado this winter. With the Phillies, White Sox, and (to a lesser extent) Yankees known to be involved in the hunt, the question is whether other organizations would quietly help drive the bidding.

Now, on the heels of some suggestive comments from Machado’s father (via Dominican journalist Hector Gomez, on Twitter), there’s clear reporting indicating that is the case. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that not only is there a mystery team chasing Machado, but that it’s presently the high bidder. Andy Martino of SNY.tv adds on Twitter that there are actually two such clubs in the mix.

While this news is certainly vague in one sense, in that it doesn’t indicate what teams are now involved, it certainly is being presented as being firmly rooted in reality. Some may be skeptical, but it has always made sense for certain clubs to prefer to make their pursuit a quiet one. And the truly hard-to-fathom aspect of the market to date has been the lack of more teams publicly chasing one of the game’s best players, who’s hitting the market at just 26 years of age.

Last we checked in on Machado, a few days back, his agent Dan Lozano was forced to publicly comment on reports of a middling offer from the White Sox. Indeed, the level of money that had been suggested — seven years, $175MM — hardly seems to match Machado’s value when considering his established track record, age, and past open-market contracts. In any event, it seems at a minimum that those numbers may not have represented a full picture of the level of the Chicago organization’s interest.

The latest news puts a much better spin on the outlook for Machado. If there are indeed a pair of mystery teams, in addition to the three known to have interest, then that leaves quite a few more landing spots for Lozano to explore — and, presumably, a fair bit more leverage to work with in trying to move Machado’s earning level northward.

East Notes: Mets, Phils, Harper, Yanks Pitching, Dozier

By Jeff Todd | January 16, 2019 at 9:57pm CDT

“Come get us.” That’s the message that Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen had today for the rest of baseball, and particularly the club’s division rivals, as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports. While other organizations in the NL East surely also feel optimistic about their own recent roster improvements, that created an opening for the hard-charging rookie exec to dish out some further smack talk: “There’s a lot of good teams. … I hope that those guys continue to get themselves better because we’ll go slug it out with them every day.” Otherwise, as he introduced Jed Lowrie today, Van Wagenen suggested that he may be more or less done tinkering with the position-player mix, though he didn’t rule out further action. On the pitching side, it’s less of a complete picture, though the newly minted baseball ops leader did laud the “depth” the organization has already assembled, citing players such as lefty Hector Santiago and Rule 5er Kyle Dowdy. Certainly, a few additional arms wouldn’t hurt, though there’s no denying the talent the Mets have assembled at the back of the bullpen and, especially, in the rotation.

Agent Dan Lozano Issues Statement On Latest Manny Machado Reports

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2019 at 4:38pm CDT

In the wake of this morning’s reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), in which both suggested that the White Sox’ current offer to Manny Machado stands at $175MM over seven years, Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, issued the following statement to MLBTR and other media outlets:

I have known Bob Nightengale and Buster Olney for many years and have always had a good professional relationship with both. But their recent reporting, like many other rumors in the past several months, have been inaccurate and reckless when it comes to Manny Machado. I don’t know if their sources are blatantly violating the Collective Bargaining Agreement by intentionally misleading them to try and affect negotiations through the public or are just flat out lying to them for other reasons. But the truth is that their reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.

I am well aware that the entire baseball universe; fans, players, teams, and media members alike; are starved for information about this free agent market for all players, including Manny. But I am not going to continue to watch the press be manipulated into tampering with, not just with my client, but all of these players’ livelihoods as they have been doing this entire offseason. The absence of new information to report is no excuse to fabricate “news” or regurgitate falsehoods without even attempting to confirm their validity and it is a disservice to baseball fans everywhere when the media does just that.

Moving forward, I will continue to respect the CBA’s prohibition on negotiations through the media, and hope that others would do the same.

It’s an emphatic denial of this morning’s reports and a fairly rare step for an agent or team executive to take with regard to media reports. Lozano, though, clearly felt strongly enough to offer a firm rebuke of the information that has been put forth. The “White Sox level of interest” is in reference to the reported numbers on Machado’s offer this morning, rather than a commentary on Chicago’s desire to sign the player himself. At this point, there’s no clear timeline or indication as to when Machado’s free-agent saga will end.

White Sox’ Offer To Machado Reportedly Seven Years, $175 Million

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2019 at 12:33pm CDT

In the weeks since the White Sox made a reported seven-year offer to Machado, several followup reports have pegged the offer’s value as closer to $200MM than to $300MM. Now, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that the exact value of Chicago’s offer to Machado is $175MM over seven years — a $25MM annual value.

Postseason comments and villainy aside, it’s surprising that Machado’s market has been so limited to this juncture — particularly when the apparent top bid for his services as a 26-year-old isn’t all that much greater than the $144MM for which Eric Hosmer signed a year ago when at the age of 28. Frankly, the reported size of the offer makes it all the more stunning that the Yankees, on the heels of a 100-win season, are seemingly content to entrust the shortstop position to a Troy Tulowitzki reclamation project and the hope that Didi Gregorius can seamlessly bounce back from Tommy John surgery.

Looking around the league, it’s jarring yet that teams who could fairly easily accommodate Machado haven’t made an effort to top that offer. The total value of Chicago’s offer to Machado checks in south of the Twins’ $184MM commitment to Joe Mauer, who retired earlier this winter. Minnesota doesn’t have a single dollar on the books beyond the 2019 campaign. The Brewers promised Ryan Braun a $21MM annual salary through his age-36 season nearly eight years ago, and Braun’s deal is off the books after the 2020 season. (Of course, if there’s one team that Machado have alienated more than any last October, it’s likely the Brewers.) The Angels and Mets are both at least $40MM south of the luxury tax threshold. Other clubs like the Cardinals, Cubs and Dodgers could potentially move some internal pieces around to fit Machado, and the Phillies are of course a clear fit that could handily top that sum. Even a team like the Padres, still emerging from a rebuild and more earnestly eyeing contention in 2020, could reasonably top an offer of that magnitude. (San Diego did, after all, sign a far lesser player in Hosmer a year ago.)

As Olney notes, the White Sox’ approach looks to be a mirror image of how the Red Sox pursued J.D. Martinez last winter. Boston made Martinez a $100MM offer early in the winter and waited him out, knowing that he lacked other suitors. That, of course, led Boston to a $110MM deal with Martinez that, while nine figures in value, proved to be one of the offseason’s best values. It’s more understandable, though, that Martinez would have a limited market given the fact that most clubs viewed him as a pure designated hitter who could only handle sporadic outfield work.

Machado’s “Johnny Hustle” comments and his deliberate kick of Jesus Aguilar at first base during the NLCS undoubtedly soured his image in the eyes of some owners (quite likely the aforementioned Brewers), but it’s nevertheless eye-popping that interest has been this tepid. While it’s true that many, if not most free-agent deals of seven-plus years in length end up as albatrosses in their latter years, Machado is four to five years younger than most free agents who signed those contracts and can reasonably be expected to provide more value as a result — particularly in the first half of a contract, which should be comprised entirely of prime-aged seasons.

Generally speaking, team-side aversion to those mega-contracts has clearly risen in recent years, though some clubs have moved toward shorter contracts at higher annual values in an effort to pay a higher premium for up-front value while mitigating some long-term downside. That, however, isn’t even the case in Chicago’s pursuit of Machado. The $25MM annual value of the proposal is hardly insignificant, but it’s also far from the top-of-the-scale annual rate one might expect for a player of Machado’s caliber and age.

Olney wonders whether the Yankees may ultimately circle back in if Machado’s market fails to progress — be it in the form of an increased offer from the Pale Hose or the emergence of another suitor. Given that the currently proposed deal would only run through Machado’s age-32 season, it’s hard to imagine that some team wouldn’t be willing to top it. Then again, few would’ve believed at the onset of free agency that Machado’s top offer in mid-January would be sitting at its current level.

Phillies “Expected” To Make Offer To Bryce Harper Soon

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | January 15, 2019 at 4:45pm CDT

4:45pm: Machado was the Phils’ primary target at one point, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links), but it’s now much more even between him and Harper — if not slightly tilted in Harper’s favor. The Phillies, according to Heyman, are expected to make a formal offer to Harper in the near future.

Even if the Phillies won’t sign both Machado and Harper, Heyman notes that the goal is to sign one and then explore the market for other top free agents like Pollock, Keuchel and Kimbrel. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale cites team executives with the Phils in tweeting that organization has “visions” of signing the trio of Harper, Keuchel and Kimbrel. Paired with the prior acquisitions of Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen, among others, that’d obviously be a seismic roster overhaul — the magnitude of which has been virtually unparalleled by any team in recent memory.

Of course, striving to add that trio and actually signing all three are two entirely separate animals, and it remains to be seen how feasible it is that the Phillies could win the bidding on three of the market’s top remaining free agents.

1:00pm: With a surprisingly small number of teams engaged on superstar free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, it has at times seemed as if the big-budget Phillies are the favorites to land both players. Of course, even if the Philadelphia org is the likeliest single team to secure the services of each, that does not mean that it should be expected to come away with a pair of monster deals. Still, the possibility of hooking two free agent trophies has remained tantalizing to consider.

In the course of an interesting breakdown of the current situation, though, Matt Gelb of The Athletic (subscription link) strikes a blow to the idea of the Phillies making successive strikes for both Harper and Machado. The Phils, he reports, have “made this much clear during negotiations: They will not sign both players.”

Certainly, there was never anything approaching an expectation that the Phillies would land both, or even that they’d seriously consider taking on two huge salaries. But it’s still a notable bit of seemingly hard information in a market situation that has remained exceedingly fluid, so far as is known publicly.

As Gelb explains, moreover, that stance is perhaps a notable aspect of the Phillies’ strategy in approaching both Harper and Machado. If the club’s money is only there for one of the two players, that conveys no small amount of leverage. Even if both players would rather end up elsewhere, they surely can’t ignore the presence of the Phils’ ample pocketbooks in navigating a surprisingly barren field of pursuers.

Perhaps the best case scenario for the Philadelphia club would be for one of these two players to jump on a big but palatable offer to join on. Of course, their respective representatives — Scott Boras, for Harper, and Dan Lozano, for Machado — have played this game before. We’ve seen teams emerge from the woodwork in the past to land players of this quality with surprisingly massive contracts. As Gelb rightly suggests, the presence (or absence) of “mystery teams” — whether as active bidders or as conjured by the agents — may go a long way toward influencing the course of negotiations.

Gelb says the Philly club intends to continue exercising confident patience in talks. The situation seems ripe for that approach, though surely the team would be better-situated if Harper or Machado had a stronger personal desire to end up in Philly. Really, there seem only to be a few risks here (beyond those that are inherent to such a major investment, which the team has already largely resolved in favor of action).

Those risks seem manageable. One is simply that the team loses out on the player it prefers to land, which would appear to be Machado. Given that the roster is susceptible of upgrades at both the corner outfield and third base, that’s not a major worry. Another is that it ends up having to pay a bit more by allowing the bidding to get going in earnest. Paying a premium now to forestall that possibility seems unwise, when the Phillies can surely afford to cover a higher price if that ends up being required. (This is the point of the post where I quote owner John Middleton on his willingness to spend “stupid money” this winter.)

Finally, the Phils could end up missing on both players. Gelb says the team is confident it will land one of the two, though surely there’s some possibility that they’ll both head elsewhere. That is perhaps the most concerning outcome, though even then there are alternatives. A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, and Craig Kimbrel are the leading three alternative remaining free agents; all would be hypothetical fits. And the trade market is all but sure to have some intriguing targets still available, even if it means coughing up more prospect capital than the team might wish. Losing the star power would hurt, but it seems reasonable to think the Phillies could still back-fill the missing talent.

All things considered, there are still many ways in which things could shake out — with both Harper and Machado landing in Philadelphia evidently not among them. Today’s news may not be earth-shattering, but it does cabin the universe of foreseeable outcomes. With hundreds of millions of dollars at stake, in a slow-moving and increasingly tense market setting, it’s a signpost that’s at least worthy of keeping in mind.

Market Notes: Machado, White Sox, Mystery Team, Kipnis, Marwin

By Steve Adams | January 15, 2019 at 12:39am CDT

Despite recent reports that the White Sox have made an eight-year offer to Manny Machado, a parade of others are reporting that the team has not moved off of its previous seven-year offer. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that the ChiSox have not made any alterations to their original seven-year offer, which was put on the table about two weeks back. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago suggests the same, via Twitter, adding that the offer presently on the table to Machado is valued between $25-30MM annually. That’d peg Chicago’s offer somewhere in the $175-210MM range — well shy of Machado’s reported $325MM+ target.

While the White Sox have gone to some unique measures to make Chicago a bit more appealing for Machado — acquiring his brother-in-law, Yonder Alonso, and signing close friend Jon Jay — SNY’s Andy Martino writes that Machado won’t be wooed by anything other than the largest offer (which goes without saying for the majority of free agents). More interesting from Martino’s report is the possibility of some dark-horse teams in the mix on Machado. While Martino acknowledges that the “mystery team” trope is overplayed and is “often mocked for good reason, we hear reliably that it’s true in this case.”
The Indians are still dabbling in trade talks, but it doesn’t sound as if the team has much hope of moving Jason Kipnis. According to Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer, there was an effort to do so previously. But while an improved second half helped the Cleveland cause, the crowded second base market made it hard to find any traction. The 31-year-old has turned in below-average offensive seasons for two years running, but he’s still a useful player and has a significant established ceiling. The recent showing isn’t enough to justify his $14.5MM salary, particularly with another $2.5MM promised as a buyout on a 2020 option, but the Indians surely feel they can make good use of Kipnis in the season to come. For now, he’s penciled in at second base but his ability to play the outfield could give the Indians some added flexibility as they seek a means of improving their lineup.
While a rumor sprang up this evening that the Braves had a deal with Marwin Gonzalez, that doesn’t seem to have any legs. Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deports tweets that the Atlanta organization has not made any offers to the free agent, though it has shown interest in him. Presumably, the Braves see Gonzalez as a potential option in the corner outfield for the coming season. His versatility would be an asset, too, as he’d be capable of covering in the infield if a need arose in the near or long term. Of course, it remains unclear whether the Braves will pursue a multi-year deal with Gonzalez or another free agent, or whether they’ll try to wait out the market in hopes of securing a quality player on a short-term deal.

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