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Max Scherzer

Dodgers Place Tony Gonsolin On 10-Day Injured List

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The Dodgers have placed right-hander Tony Gonsolin on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder inflammation, and also sent right-hander Brusdar Graterol and outfielder Luke Raley to Triple-A.  The trio of moves clears the way for Max Scherzer to be activated onto the Dodgers’ roster, while righty Edwin Uceta and southpaw Garrett Cleavinger were called up from Triple-A.

It seems likely that Gonsolin’s shoulder issue contributed to his tough start last night, as he lasted only 1 2/3 innings while allowing two runs on a hit and five walks in the Dodgers’ 6-5 loss to the Diamondbacks.  Control has been an uncharacteristically major issue for Gonsolin this season, as his 16.5% walk rate is one of the worst of any pitcher with at least 30 innings tossed.

Since Gonsolin didn’t debut this season until June 9 due to shoulder inflammation, the Dodgers have been limiting his workload, but the right-hander has still been posting some quality results.  Gonsolin has a 2.78 ERA despite his problem with free passes, as he has an above-average 26.6% strikeout rate and done a good job at limiting hard contact.

Gonsolin joins Clayton Kershaw and the newly-acquired Danny Duffy on the injured list, as Scherzer’s acquisition was intended to help correct the lack of available rotation depth.  If everyone is healthy, Los Angeles will have a fearsome array of pitchers available for the playoffs, though even the Dodgers’ depth has been tested by multiple pitching injuries this season.

Deadline Notes: Rockies, Story, Mets, Bryant, Gibson, Nationals, Dodgers

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The Rockies reportedly received offers for All-Star shortstop Trevor Story from the Yankees, Brewers, White Sox, and Rays prior to Friday’s trade deadline, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The Rockies have been criticized for their failure to move Story, given that they are all but assured to lose him as a free agent after the season. They will get a draft pick when he departs, and their front office did not deem any of the offers received as appreciably better than that draft pick will be.

  • Despite all the talk, the Mets never came particularly close to acquiring Kris Bryant from the Cubs, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The two clubs were obviously in steady communication — and eventually consummated a deal for Javier Baez — but the Cubs kept the conversation away from Bryant. Given how long Bryant had been “on the block,” the Cubs certainly had a sense of what was available.
  • The Mets did, however, explore the cost for Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, notes Puma, but the Rangers informed them that they had a better offer on the table from the Phillies.
  • The Nationals had the pieces in place for a deal that would have sent Max Scherzer to the Padres on Thursday night, but they also had a deal in place with an American League East team, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox were all said to have interest in Scherzer at one point or another.
  • As for the Dodgers’ side of that deal eventual deal, they were intent on holding onto Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack, despite wide-ranging interest in that trio of arms.

Dodgers Acquire Max Scherzer And Trea Turner From Nationals For Four Prospects

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In a stunning deadline blockbuster, the Dodgers acquired stars Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals. In exchange, Los Angeles sent back four prospects, including two of the top young talents in baseball. Catcher Keibert Ruiz, right-handers Josiah Gray and Gerardo Carrillo, and outfielder Donovan Casey are go to Washington. Scherzer waived his no-trade rights to facilitate the deal.

It had become clear in recent days the Nationals were likely to trade Scherzer, but the saga took its share of twists and turns along the way. The division-rival Padres were reportedly close to landing the three-time Cy Young award winner earlier in the afternoon. Other teams — the Dodgers among them — lurked on the periphery, though, and Los Angeles jumped in as the Nationals’ talks with San Diego never got across the finish line. In the process, the Dodgers also add one of the game’s best position players as part of a jaw-dropping package deal.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what was a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. That deal proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17 and was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. Perhaps most importantly, Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

Scherzer now joins a rotation that already includes Walker Buehler and is expected to soon welcome back Clayton Kershaw from the injured list. That trio would make for an incredible top three in any postseason series, to say nothing of the presence of David Price and Tony Gonsolin as options for a fourth game and/or multi-inning work out of the bullpen. (Trevor Bauer remains on administrative leave after being accused of assault; it’s not clear if/when he’ll return to the team this season).

Of course, the Dodgers still need to solidify their chances of making a playoff series to unleash that three-headed monster in October. The Dodgers are almost certain to make the playoffs in some capacity, but the Giants somewhat surprisingly remain three games up on them in the NL West race. The competition at the top of the division from San Francisco and San Diego could leave the Dodgers staring down a one-game playoff. Acquiring Scherzer gives Los Angeles another ace to potentially take the ball in a Wild Card game, but it also increases their odds of winning the division and avoiding the contest altogether.

Incredibly, Scherzer is likely the second-most valuable part of the Dodgers’ haul. While Scherzer’s slated to hit free agency at the end of this season, Turner is controllable through 2022 via arbitration and every bit as productive. Turner has been a quality player since breaking into the big leagues in 2015, but he’s developed into a true superstar over the past couple seasons. Since the start of the 2020 campaign, the 28-year-old is hitting .327/.378/.546 (145 wRC+) with 30 home runs and 33 stolen bases across 155 games and 679 plate appearances.

Turner’s one of the top few players in the sport, even if he rather remarkably didn’t make an All-Star team until this season. In addition to that high-end offense, he’s one of the game’s most dangerous baserunners and a fine defensive shortstop. FanGraphs estimates Turner’s been worth seven wins above replacement over the past two years, a mark that trails only Fernando Tatís Jr. among position players.

A good portion of Turner’s overall value comes from his aforementioned ability to play shortstop. It’s not precisely clear whether he’ll continue to do so in Los Angeles, where Corey Seager is also one of the game’s stars. Turner has some experience manning second base and in center field, and the Dodgers have never been shy about moving players around the diamond defensively.

Seager is slated to hit free agency at the end of the season, and he’ll be one of the top options on the open market. The Dodgers could use Turner in a utility-type capacity for the remainder of this season and plug him in as their regular shortstop come 2022 if Seager signs elsewhere.

Regardless of their long-term vision, it’s unquestionable that adding Turner to the roster will be a massive boon to a position player group that was already among the league’s best. Seager has missed two months after fracturing his hand, but he’s expected to return to the lineup this weekend. Turner, who landed on the injured list this week after testing positive for COVID-19 in what’ll apparently be his final game as a National, is out for at least the next week-plus.

Unsurprisingly, adding two of the sport’s best players will cost quite a bit — both financially and from a talent perspective. Scherzer is playing out the year on a $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. The Dodgers are reportedly assuming the entirety of Scherzer’s remaining salary for 2021 (which won’t actually be paid out for seven years). Presumably, the Nationals will remain on the hook for all the deferred payments for time he’s already spent in Washington.

Turner, meanwhile, is making $13MM in his penultimate year of arbitration, which the Dodgers will also assume. Around $4.5MM of that sum remains to be paid, and he’ll surely be in line for a sizable raise this winter during his final trip through the arb process.

In addition to those salaries, the Dodgers are set to take on rather significant expenditures in luxury tax payments. The remainder of Scherzer’s contract contains a luxury tax hit in the $10MM range, while Turner’s CBT number exactly matches that of his real salary. Altogether, the Dodgers are adding something in the realm of $14.5MM to their luxury tax ledger.

That’s significant but apparently not much of a deterrent. Even before today’s acquisitions, the Dodgers had a CBT number north of $260MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That places them in the highest tax bracket, with Los Angeles subject to a 62.5% tax on any dollar spent over that mark. By assuming the remainder of Scherzer’s and Turner’s deals, the Dodgers are agreeing to pay somewhere in the range of $9MM in penalties on top of the money they’ll owe to the players.

Ownership is apparently willing to do exactly that in service of constructing a potential super-team. The defending World Series champions were arguably the most talented club in the league already, and they’ve added Scherzer, Turner and Danny Duffy to that loaded roster the day before the trade deadline.

To make that happen, Los Angeles has parted with a couple of baseball’s most talented young players. Ruiz has seemingly been on top prospect lists forever, but he’s still just 23 years old. He’s only picked up 15 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons, but he’d likely have accrued far more playing time were he playing in most other organizations.

With Will Smith entrenched as the Dodgers’ current and long-term catcher, there simply hasn’t been much opportunity for Ruiz. That said, the switch-hitting backstop has earned a major league look. He’s performed well at basically every minor league stop, and that’s continued in 2021.

Ruiz is hitting a massive .311/.381/.631 with 16 home runs across 231 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America just ranked him the league’s #16 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update, lauding his elite bat-to-ball skills and suggesting he’s a solid enough defender to stick behind the plate. It’s not unreasonable to expect Ruiz to settle in as an above-average or All-Star caliber catcher given his rare offensive upside for the position.

Ruiz is already on the 40-man roster and would seem to be a big league caliber option for the Nats this season. He’s in his final minor league option year, so he’ll need to break camp with the Nationals in 2022.

Gray wasn’t too far behind Ruiz on BA’s top 100 list, checking in 56th overall and second in the Los Angeles system. The young starter draws praise for his fastball-slider combination and fantastic athleticism, which allows him to throw strikes at a strong rate. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slotted Gray as the sport’s #29 prospect entering the season (he’s up to 21st following other players’ graduations), calling him a likely “mid-rotation stalwart” at his peak.

The 23-year-old made his major league debut last week and has pitched in a pair of big league games. Gray spent the rest of the year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, although an injured list stint caused him to miss a fair amount of time. He tossed 15 2/3 innings of 2.87 ERA ball before his promotion, his first crack at the minors’ top level.

Neither Ruiz nor Gray will accrue enough big league time to reach a full year of service in 2021. They won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season and aren’t likely to qualify for arbitration until the 2024-25 offseason. Both players have the opportunity to be long-term stalwarts in D.C., with many potential games featuring a Gray-Ruiz battery over the coming years. Gray still has all three options remaining.

Carrillo will also step directly onto Washington’s 40-man roster. His contract was selected last winter to prevent him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, but Carrillo hasn’t yet appeared in the majors. He’s spent the entire season with Double-A Tulsa, tossing 59 1/3 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. The 22-year-old has struck out a strong 26.2% of batters faced but walked an alarming 10.9% of opponents.

Both Baseball America and FanGraphs suggest that lack of control is likely to eventually push Carrillo to the bullpen, but his mid-90’s sinker and power breaking ball could suit him quite well in short stints. Longenhagen slots Carrillo tenth in the Nationals system assuming the trade is completed.

Casey will need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason or he’ll be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The former 20th-round pick (2017) isn’t seen as a particularly strong prospect, but he’s having a quality season in a pitcher-friendly Double-A environment. The 25-year-old is hitting .296/.362/.462 with 11 home runs across 334 plate appearances with Tulsa. Casey has seen action at all three outfield positions.

The blockbuster completely changes the National League outlook. The Dodgers add two of the game’s best players to a tight divisional race, seemingly acquiring Scherzer out of the Padres grasp. With a few high-profile targets (José Berríos, Trevor Story and Kris Bryant chief among them) still having a chance to wind up on the move, the Dodgers’ in-state division rivals figure to be active themselves as the deadline approaches.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the Nationals and Dodgers were in serious discussions about a deal involving Scherzer and Turner. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported Ruiz’s and Casey’s involvement in the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported Gray’s inclusion, while Jim Bowden of the Athletic was first to identify Carrillo as part of the deal. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post was first to report Scherzer’s willingness to waive his no-trade rights, and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported that the Dodgers would assume Scherzer’s and Turner’s remaining 2021 financial obligations.

Padres Close To Acquiring Max Scherzer, But Other Teams Still In The Mix

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6:19 pm: The Angels are also still in the mix for Scherzer, according to Heyman.

4:40 pm: Other teams are indeed still trying to top the Padres’ offer for Scherzer, says Rosenthal. While Washington and San Diego have “essentially” agreed on the framework of a trade, the various obstacles involved with Scherzer’s situation (particularly his no-trade rights) continue to loom over the discussions.

3:58 pm: While the Padres are heavily involved in the market for Scherzer, Heyman reiterates that other clubs (perhaps including the Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox) still believe they have a chance to land the ace.

3:24 pm: The teams have agreed on the players involved, pending medical reviews, according to Jim Bowden of the Athletic. Scherzer still needs to waive his no-trade rights, although recent reports suggested he’d be willing to do so to move to one of the NL West contenders.

3:12 pm: The Padres are nearing a deal to acquire Max Scherzer, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). Jon Morosi of MLB.com had reported the Friars’ efforts to land Scherzer were “intensifying” moments before Rosenthal. The deal is not yet complete, cautions Jon Heyman of MLB Network.

Assuming the deal eventually crosses the finish line, it’ll be the latest in a line of impact starting pitching acquisitions for San Diego that dates back to last summer. Within the past twelve months, the Padres have acquired Mike Clevinger, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. They’re now on the verge of landing perhaps their most notable pitcher of all, a three-time Cy Young award winner who started for the National League in this year’s All-Star game.

Scherzer is one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the future Hall of Famer has continued to pitch at a level close to peak form. He’s tossed 111 innings across nineteen starts, working to a 2.76 ERA/3.59 FIP. He’s given up a few home runs (1.46 HR/9), but Scherzer’s strikeout and walk numbers are still among the game’s best. The eight-time All-Star has punched out 34.3% of batters faced while handing out free passes to a meager 6.5% of opponents. Among starters with 50+ innings pitched, only Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Patrick Sandoval and Shane Bieber have generated swinging strikes at a higher clip than Scherzer’s 16.5% mark.

It’s the continuation of what has been a remarkable tenure in Washington. Signed to a seven-year, $210MM deal over the 2014-15 offseason, the right-hander entered today’s outing with a 2.80 ERA/2.91 FIP across 1223 innings for the Nats. It proved to be one of the most successful free agent investments in recent memory. Scherzer won back-to-back NL Cy Young awards in 2016-17. He was selected to the All-Star game six times, with the lone exception due to the cancelation of last year’s festivities. And Scherzer was integral to the Nationals’ 2019 World Series title, tossing 30 frames of 2.40 ERA ball during that year’s postseason run.

With Scherzer scheduled to reach free agency again this offseason, the Washington front office was faced with a decision — hold onto Scherzer in hopes of making a playoff push, or move him to a contender for an influx of young talent? For a while, it seemed as though the Nats would play well enough that keeping Scherzer was the obvious choice. They’ve struggled coming out of the All-Star Break, though, with a sweep at the hands of the Orioles last weekend seemingly sealing the team’s fate as sellers.

Washington sits at 47-54, fourth place in the National League East and seven games back of the division-leading Mets. They entered play today with just a 1.1% chance of reaching the postseason, in the estimation of FanGraphs. Nationals brass hasn’t traditionally been keen on trading away star players. Still, the deficit became too much to reasonably expect to overcome, particularly with Stephen Strasburg officially done for the season and star shortstop Trea Turner now out for the next-week plus after testing positive for COVID-19.

Successful and beloved as Scherzer has been in Washington, it became apparent in recent days that a trade would be in the cards. Such a move isn’t without complications though, most notably Scherzer’s full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player (one with ten years of major league service, the past five of which have come with the same team).

Scott Boras, Scherzer’s agent, suggested earlier in the summer that the pitcher could require some form of contractual inducement (perhaps even an extension) to approve any deal. He later walked back those comments, though, and recent reports suggested Scherzer was willing to approve a move to certain destinations — particularly those on the West Coast. Obviously, the Padres would fit that bill, but the Nationals were still motivated to work out a deal well in advance of tomorrow’s 4:00 pm EST deadline in order to sort that situation out.

There’s also the matter of finances to consider. Scherzer’s playing out the year on a significant $35MM salary, a little less than $12MM of which remains to be paid. That money is entirely deferred until 2028, part of a broader trend throughout the term of his deal. While Scherzer is an impending free agent, he’ll still be owed $15MM every year from 2022-28 in deferrals. It’s not precisely clear how the Nationals and Padres will divide those payments (assuming the trade is completed), although the majority of those obligations will certainly be paid by the Nationals.

The Padres’ series of big-ticket trade and free agent acquisitions in recent years has pushed their payroll to unprecedented heights for the organization. The Friars are reportedly a little above the $210MM luxury tax threshold. Scherzer’s prorated luxury tax hit for the remainder of the season is right around $10MM. If the Friars pick up the remainder of his contractual obligations, they’ll certainly wind up above the luxury threshold, although previous reports suggested ownership was willing to greenlight such a move to accommodate an impactful summer acquisition.

San Diego would be a first-time payor of the competitive balance tax. That’d subject the franchise to a 20% tax on any overage between $210MM and $230MM (an approximate $2MM penalty if they assume Scherzer’s remaining deal). Should the Friars push their luxury number above $230MM, they’d pay a 32% tax on expenditures between that number and $250MM.

Either way, the overage penalties are an exceedingly small price to pay for a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber. The Padres entered play today in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Giants. They’re 3.5 behind the Dodgers for the top Wild Card spot but five games clear of the Reds for the NL’s final postseason spot. The Friars seem likely to make the playoffs in some capacity. If acquired, Scherzer would be an option to start a potential Wild Card game.

If San Diego gets into an NLDS, a playoff rotation involving Scherzer, Darvish, and Musgrove would be capable of shutting down the best opposing lineups. That’s without even accounting for Snell, Dinelson Lamet, Ryan Weathers or Chris Paddack, who could be options to start a fourth game and/or work multiple innings of relief.

The Padres’ acquisition of Scherzer (if completed) would also have huge implications on the trade market for other top starting pitchers — most notably Minnesota’s José Berríos. San Diego was reportedly heavily involved in the Berríos market in recent days. A Scherzer pickup would seemingly take them out of that mix, but the other two NL West contenders are among the teams known to be interested in the Twins’ righty.

The Dodgers and Giants probably won’t feel obligated to up their offers on Berríos specifically because the Padres are on the verge of a Scherzer deal. Front offices don’t tend to be that reactionary to division rivals’ moves in this day and age. But both those teams were also speculated as potential fits for Scherzer, and his landing elsewhere could leave Berríos as the only true top-of-the-rotation arm still available in the next 24 hours.

Red Sox Among Teams In Mix For Max Scherzer

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3:10 pm: While reports this morning suggested the Padres were more focused on Berrios, the Friars have “intensified” their efforts to land the Nationals ace this afternoon, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

11:44am: The Red Sox are indeed in the mix for Scherzer, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that Scherzer is open to a trade to Boston. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, meanwhile, hears that Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Astros or Phillies.

9:54am: Max Scherzer remains the most intriguing trade candidate on the market, and interested parties will get one more look at him before deciding on an asking price. Nats skipper Dave Martinez announced to reporters Thursday morning that Scherzer will start Game 1 of today’s doubleheader against the Phillies (Twitter link via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). It seems likely this will be Scherzer’s final start with the Nationals, and it’ll serve as an audition of sorts to prove that his triceps is at full strength; Scherzer was scratched from his Saturday start due to minor triceps discomfort, but an MRI has since come back clean.

With a reported preference to land with one of the three NL West contenders and full no-trade rights to help guide him to a destination he likes, it feels like a matter of when he’s traded rather than one of if. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets that there’s a feeling throughout the organization that a trade will come together today.

That’s sensible, as the Nats want to leave as much time as possible post-agreement to sort out the finer details of Scherzer waiving his no-trade rights. Adjustments to his contract’s salary deferrals or smaller details along those lines could be arranged as compensation for Scherzer waiving his 10-and-5 no-trade protection. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that the Covid outbreak with which the Nationals are currently dealing may have preoccupied some key Nats personnel and slowed the pace of talks, as some expected them to have a deal in place by last night.

The acquisition price for premium rentals (e.g. Nelson Cruz, Starling Marte) has been viewed as steep thus far, and Rosenthal unsurprisingly suggests that Washington has a high price on Scherzer. We’ve yet to see one of the premium rental pitchers change hands, however — perhaps because other clubs want to wait until Scherzer is off the board before pushing their own rental starters.

While the prevailing wisdom at the moment is that one of the Giants, Padres or Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, there are at least a couple other possibilities of note. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden writes that Red Sox ownership has pushed the front office to pursue a deal, for instance. The Sox have already been linked to Scherzer, but they’d be something of a surprise fit, given ownership’s longstanding reluctance to cross the luxury tax threshold. Scherzer would have to be viewed as a player worth making that exception, or the Red Sox would likely have to bolster their prospect package in order to convince the Nationals to pay down the remaining salary on Scherzer’s contract. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, meanwhile, suggests that the Padres are more focused on Minnesota’s Jose Berrios than they are on Scherzer at the moment.

Latest On Max Scherzer

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As of last night, there were at least eight clubs interested in Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is open to waiving his no-trade rights but said to have a preference for a West Coast club that has the ability to keep him longer-term.

Scherzer figures to be one of the most talked-about trade candidates in recent memory, but his stay on the market may not go down to the wire like some other stars. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Nationals want to get a framework for a trade in place as quickly as possible, in order to leave enough time to work out the details surrounding Scherzer’s no-trade rights and any compensation he’d require to waive them. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that some involved in negotiations believe an agreement could come together by tonight.

While Scherzer has been connected to more than a quarter of the league, Rosenthal and Morosi both suggest that the three NL West contenders — the Padres, Dodgers and Giants — are the likeliest destinations at this time. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested something similar yesterday. Both SNY’s Andy Martino and The Athletic’s Jayson Stark, meanwhile, have indicated that Scherzer would not approve a trade to either New York club.

Any of the three NL West contenders make for a sensible landing spot. The Giants hold the best record in Major League Baseball and ought to be motivated to aggressively strengthen their club down the stretch. The Dodgers’ rotation strength has dwindled since the season began, and the Padres are without several key rotation options themselves at the moment.

Of the bunch, only the Giants could acquire Scherzer without incurring any luxury-tax penalization. Scherzer’s deferral-heavy contract comes with an annual luxury hit of just under $30MM, and the prorated remainder of that hit as of this writing would be $10.49MM. (It’d drop to $10.03MM after the deadline.) The Dodgers, already in the top tax bracket for year-one offenders, would pay a 62.5 percent tax on that $10.03MM overage. The Padres are barely over the threshold at the moment and exploring some ambitious ways to drop back below the barrier; at the moment, they’d pay a 20 percent overage penalty.

Scherzer, who turned 37 yesterday, has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a 35.1 percent strikeout rate (tying a career-high) and a 4.2 percent walk rate in 105 innings this year. He’s playing on a $35MM salary this year in the final season of a seven-year, $210MM contract, though the bulk of that 2021 salary is deferred to 2028. Schezer was scratched from his Saturday start against the Orioles due to a triceps issue, though the Nationals have indicated that an MRI came back clean. He’s listed as the probable starter for Thursday’s game against the Phillies. Of course, that recent health scare only muddies the water as teams try to put together a framework with the Nats.

At Least Eight Teams In The Mix For Max Scherzer

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As many as eight clubs are in the mix for Nationals ace and three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Dodgers, Giants, Padres, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Astros and Mets are all interested, according to Stark, who adds that the Yankees also inquired but were told Scherzer isn’t likely to waive his no-trade rights for a move to New York. That meshes with recent reporting from SNY’s Andy Martino, who wrote earlier this afternoon that Scherzer wouldn’t approve a trade to the Mets (nor would the Nationals be keen on dealing their ace to the current division leaders).

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported earlier in the day that Scherzer preferred a West Coast club, though MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds that the ostensible West Coast preference is more about Scherzer wanting to go to a team with a chance to win in 2021 and beyond. Scherzer prefers to go to “a team he could stay with” on a possible extension, per Heyman. Agent Scott Boras indicated as much earlier in the summer, although at the time Boras suggested an extension might be necessary in order for Scherzer to waive his no-trade protection at all. That no longer seems to be the case, but as evidenced by Scherzer’s unwillingness to go to a New York club, the no-trade rights can help him choose his eventual landing spot.

If the Nats are to ultimately trade Scherzer, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the team’s preference is to do so within the next 48 hours. Doing so would leave ample time to sort through the no-trade obstacles and any potential compensation for waiving those rights (e.g. alterations to deferrals, taxes, etc.).

That said, a trade taking place prior to Thursday’s game would put an acquiring team in a tough spot. Scherzer was scratched from his weekend start due to a triceps issue and is set to return to the mound Thursday. A recent MRI came back clean, and any team acquiring Scherzer would obviously have access to the results from that imaging and other testing. Still, a clean MRI may not inspire as much confidence as seeing Scherzer go out and actually perform. If interested clubs prefer to wait until Scherzer has taken the mound, there’d be fewer than 24 hours between the conclusion of Thursday’s start and Friday afternoon’s deadline.

Any trade involving Scherzer is going to be financially complicated, but looking at Stark’s list of interested parties, there are a few particularly complex scenarios. The Dodgers are already into the final luxury-tax bracket, meaning they’d pay a 62.5 percent overage penalty on any additional money added to the books. For Scherzer, whose remaining luxury hit clocks in at roughly $10.03MM post-deadline and $10.49MM as of this writing, that’d mean paying between $6.27MM and $6.56MM on top of the approximately $12.2MM he’s still owed in actual 2021 salary. (Luxury tax is calculated based on a contract’s average annual value, but Scherzer’s backloaded contract comes with a $35MM salary in 2021 — albeit with much of that sum deferred.)

The Padres are reportedly just above the luxury tax threshold, but are still considering moves that could take them back under that line. A Scherzer acquisition, however, would push them well above the mark. That’s also true of the Astros and the Red Sox, who are both within just a few million of the $210MM threshold. The Rays, of course, have an entirely different sort of financial obstacles to consider (namely, their perennially cellar-level payroll). The Jays and Giants, as teams with deep pockets and no real luxury concerns of which to speak, ostensibly represent the “cleanest” fits of the bunch.

That’s not to say that the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, Rays or Red Sox shouldn’t be considered legitimate contenders for Scherzer. (Although if Scherzer is hoping to stay with the club that acquires him, the low-payroll Rays are an admittedly tough fit.) Most clubs this summer have voiced some iteration of a “we’d exceed the threshold for the ’right’ player” stance. It’s hard to imagine a player who fits that billing more than a bona fide ace and three-time Cy Young winner who has a 2.92 ERA in 49 1/3 postseason innings with the Nats since 2016. But with the Nats theoretically negotiating with a rapidly ticking clock, any complicated financial elements of a deal are magnified.

Max Scherzer Open To Waiving No-Trade Rights

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3:45pm: Scherzer would not approve a trade to the Mets, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, nor would the Nationals be open to trading Scherzer to the current NL East leaders.

8:41am: If Scherzer is to waive his no-trade clause, the right-hander “strongly prefers the West Coast,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.  This would naturally favor the Giants, Padres, and Dodgers, while such AL West clubs as the Angels, Athletics, or Mariners couldn’t be ruled out.

July 27, 7:34am: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has some details on Scherzer’s complex contract situation, as Scherzer’s deal contains a lot of deferred money.  The roughly $11.8MM remaining of Scherzer’s $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028, so a new team wouldn’t have to pay that money out for seven years.  However, Scherzer’s luxury tax number would be around the $10MM mark, which is certainly a factor for teams trying to avoid a tax payment.  Scherzer has another $7.5MM in signing bonus money due this September, but Rosenthal notes that this bonus payment “is solely the Nationals’ obligation.”

July 26: Nationals ace Max Scherzer has been one of the most intriguing trade candidates in baseball as the Nationals have slid down the standings following a scorching month of June, but a trade surrounding him is also complicated for myriad reasons. He’s being paid $35MM in 2021 and has more than $100MM in deferred money still owed to him from 2022-28. The Nationals, historically, do not operate as sellers under general manager Mike Rizzo. Scherzer has full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player (10 years of MLB service, the past five with the same team). Additionally, agent Scott Boras has previously suggested that Scherzer would require some type of incentive (e.g. a contract extension) in order to waive those rights.

It would seem that at least one of those major hurdles, however, is surmountable. Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports (via Twitter) that Scherzer is open to being traded and would not invoke his 10-and-5 rights for the sole purpose of remaining with the Nationals. However, Scherzer could use that full no-trade protection as a way to have a say in his ultimate destination if the Nats are presented with offers from multiple clubs.

It’s not yet clear whether the Nationals are going to legitimately make Scherzer available, although a weekend sweep at the hands of a 34-64 Orioles club couldn’t have helped convince Rizzo and his staff that the Nats need to operate as a buyer. Rizzo said just under a week ago that he was approaching the deadline with a both a “buy” and “sell” mindset, remaining open to all possibilities depending on how his team played. The implication was that with a strong showing, the Nats would act as they tend to do under Rizzo: make at least incremental upgrades in an effort to push toward the postseason.

That hasn’t happened, however. The Nats are 1-4 since those comments from Rizzo, including the sweep in Baltimore, and the fact that the Nationals had to slow Stephen Strasburg’s throwing program down once again only adds another negative element to the equation. Washington now finds itself eight games below .500, seven and a half back of the division lead and 11 out in the Wild Card hunt. The generally feeble nature of the NL East and the top-heavy trio of contenders in the NL West mean that the only path for an NL East club to reach the postseason is likely via a division title. FanGraphs gives the Nats a 1.4 percent chance of making the playoffs; PECOTA is only marginally better, at an even 2.0 percent.

If the Nats do indeed make Scherzer available, he’d (obviously) be the best starting pitcher on a market that is lacking in impact arms. The three-time Cy Young winner and eight-time All-Star, who turns 37 tomorrow, has pitched to a 2.83 ERA with a brilliant 35.1 percent strikeout rate and a 6.1 percent walk rate in 105 innings this season. He’s had one astonishing meltdown that the Padres and Daniel Camarena will never forget, wherein Scherzer allowed 12 percent of the runs he’s yielded all season on one pitch to a just-called-up relief pitcher. Outside of that night, Scherzer has allowed 26 runs in 101 1/3 innings of work (2.31 ERA). He’s held opponents to two or fewer runs in 14 of his 18 starts.

It’s also worth noting that Scherzer had his Saturday start against the Orioles scratched due to discomfort in his right triceps. The injury popped up when he was taking batting practice, not pitching and Scherzer has already said publicly that he plans to make his next start. He underwent an MRI that came back clean, and (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman), manager Dave Martinez said Scherzer’s bullpen session today went as planned. Assuming he feels fine tomorrow, he’d be in line to start Thursday’s game for the Nationals — their final game prior to Friday afternoon’s trade deadline.

Rays Interested In Max Scherzer, Kris Bryant, Kyle Gibson

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The Rays have already made one big pre-deadline splash in acquiring Nelson Cruz, and more major names seem to be on Tampa’s radar.  According to ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan, the Rays “have had preliminary discussions about” Max Scherzer and Kris Bryant, while FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the Rays are also one of the teams who have spoken to the Rangers about right-hander Kyle Gibson.

As always with Tampa Bay, payroll will be a critical factor in any acquisition, particularly since all of these players represent larger financial commitments than the Rays are usually willing to make.  As Passan notes, however, the Rays’ deep farm system can act as a counterweight to those salaries — the Nationals, Cubs, or Rangers could possibly cover most or all of the remaining salaries for their trade chips if the Rays were willing to include some of their higher-tier minor leaguers.  It can be reasonably assumed that Wander Franco is untouchable in trade talks, but beyond that, the Rays could be willing to budge on other noteworthy prospects if it meant landing a player that could help them win a World Series.

Scherzer presents a particularly interesting case, since the Nationals are solely responsible for the final $7.5MM installment of Scherzer’s original signing bonus, and the roughly $11.8MM remaining of his $35MM salary for 2021 is entirely deferred until 2028.  Beyond just kicking the financial can down the road for much of the decade, the Rays might very well even be in a new city (and have new revenue streams) available by that point, since the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field is up in 2027.

Scherzer would have to okay the move to Tampa by waiving his no-trade clause, and recent reports suggest that he would be more open to playing for a team on the west coast.  This doesn’t necessarily mean Scherzer would veto a proposed move to Tampa Bay, but it is possible the Rays might not get the nod if Scherzer was presented with multiple trade options, such as a potential move to one of the NL West powers.

As one executive recently described matters to Murray, Gibson is maybe the “most unpredictable element” of deadline season.  While someone like Scherzer obviously has a more proven track record, Gibson has been very good in 2021 but has been much more up-and-down over the course of his eight MLB seasons.  Whereas Scherzer and Bryant are free agents after the season, Gibson is controlled through 2022, at the cost of a $7MM salary.  The Rays could see acquiring Gibson as a way of checking off one box for their offseason shopping needs….or, given how Tampa operates, they could flip Gibson themselves this winter to save payroll space.

The Cubs have already moved Joc Pederson and Andrew Chafin in trades, and several other players figure to be departing Wrigleyville prior to Friday’s 3pm CT deadline.  Bryant is widely expected to be dealt, though the shape of the Cubs’ other trades might contribute to what exactly Chicago does in moving the former NL MVP.  Should the Cubs move a significant amount of money off their books in other deals, the team could be more open to absorbing more of Bryant’s salary (around $6.8MM remaining) in order to obtain better prospects from the Rays.

Adding both Cruz and Bryant would represent a major boost to an already-solid Tampa Bay lineup, and Bryant also brings the versatility that a DH-only player like Cruz lacks.  The Rays’ penchant for defensive flexibility could see Bryant used at either corner infield position or anywhere in the outfield, depending on matchups and situations.  Any potential positional logjam could be alleviated by the trade itself, if the Rays sent a position player off their Major League roster back to the Cubs.

Mets More Focused On Rental Pitchers

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The Mets are in the market for pitching, reports SNY’s Andy Martino, who notes that they’re more focused on rentals than players controlled beyond 2021.  The Mets recently added ageless southpaw Rich Hill, who made his club debut yesterday with a five-inning start, but they remain in the market for pitching of all kinds.  The Mets’ injured list for pitchers is extensive, with Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson, Robert Stock, Noah Syndergaard, Jordan Yamamoto, Robert Gsellman, Stephen Nogosek, Corey Oswalt, and Sean Reid-Foley.  Dellin Betances and Joey Lucchesi are out for the season due to Tommy John surgery, but Carrasco is close to making his Mets debut.

According to Martino, the Mets “intend to check in” with the Nationals about ace Max Scherzer, though such a trade would be a tough pill to swallow for the Nats.  Twins righty Jose Berrios is not a Mets target at this time, says Martino, in fitting with his point that New York prefers rentals so as not to deplete their farm system.

So what might the market for rental starting pitchers look like?  Narrowing to teams with less than a 10% shot at the playoffs according to FanGraphs, Scherzer, Jon Gray, Zach Davies, Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Adam Wainwright, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Anderson, J.A. Happ, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena, Jake Arrieta, Carlos Martinez, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Dylan Bundy, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, Jose Quintana, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Trevor Cahill fit the bill.  Not all of those pitchers are necessarily healthy or effective, but we’re casting a wide net.

Potential rental relievers include Raisel Iglesias, Daniel Hudson, Ian Kennedy, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Dan Winkler, Steve Cishek, Hansel Robles, Brad Hand, Josh Tomlin, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland, Yimi Garcia, Alex Colome, Daniel Norris, Tony Watson, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens, Ross Detwiler, Joakim Soria, Chasen Shreve, Wade Davis, Andrew Miller, Derek Holland, Blake Parker, Shane Greene, and Erasmo Ramirez.

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