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Mike Napoli

Sherman’s Latest: Tanaka, Kuroda, Red Sox

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On Friday it was reported that the Yankees are expected to be serious players for Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka. While many teams figure to be in the mix, the New York Post's Joel Sherman offered up a look at why the Yankees, specifically, will be motivated to sign Tanaka. Here are some of the highlights from Sherman's latest work…

  • The Yankees want to re-energize their fanbase and generate interest in buying tickets again, and adding Tanaka would allow them to do so without shattering the luxury tax threshold, as the posting fee wouldn't go against that figure. Sherman spoke with multiple executives who told him that each team is set to receive about $25MM from national TV revenue, and the Yankees also received a good chunk of money when News Corp. bought 49 percent of the YES Network. As Sherman puts it: "The Yanks have a big pile of newfound money to use lavishly for a posting bid."
  • Sherman also lists the Red Sox, Rangers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays as suitors for Tanaka.
  • The Yankees may be extra-motivated to sign Tanaka due to the fact that many within the organization believe Hiroki Kuroda is leaning toward returning to Japan to finish his career.
  • In a separate piece, Sherman writes that Boston's decision on whether or not to tender qualifying offers to Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Mike Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia will shape the market. Sherman spoke with four Major League executives — two from the AL and two from the NL — and asked about the Red Sox quartet's chances at receiving a qualifying offer. All four agreed that Ellsbury will receive one. Both AL execs and one of the NL expected Napoli to receive an offer, while just one of the NL execs thought that Drew and Saltalamacchia would get offers. Sherman offers his own expectation as well, predicting that all four will receive qualifying offers.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Napoli

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A three-year, $39MM guarantee with the Red Sox for slugger Mike Napoli was renegotiated all the way down to a one-year, $5MM contract in the course of about two months during the offseason, as a physical revealed he has avascular necrosis (AVN) in both hips.  The degenerative condition, which came as a surprise to Napoli, was caught early and has not affected his play to date.  Napoli avoided the DL this year, earning $8MM in incentives to bring his 2013 earnings to the same $13MM average annual value from his original three-year contract.  Now, he's eligible to return to the free agent market coming off a fine season.

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Strengths/Pros

Napoli is one of the top sluggers on the free agent market, as he leads all qualified free agents in isolated power.  He's tied for sixth among all free agents with 23 home runs and is fourth in slugging at .482, assuming Adam Lind's option is picked up.  Napoli is one of just ten players to hit at least 20 home runs in each of the 2008-13 seasons.  

A right-handed hitter, Napoli's on-base percentage is boosted by a strong career walk rate of 12%.  This year, his .360 OBP ranks third among qualified free agents.  If you're looking for offense from a right-handed hitter, Napoli is one of the best 15 bats in the game right now.

We don't take much stock in RBI here at MLBTR, but it may help Napoli's bargaining position that he ranks second among free agents with 92 knocked in.  The player ranked above him, Robinson Cano, will require a much larger commitment.

Formerly a catcher, Napoli proved this year he can play an acceptable first base, logging nearly 1,100 innings at the position with strong grades from UZR/150 (+13.3) and The Fielding Bible (+10).

Napoli comes with a reputation as a winner, as this year will mark his sixth postseason out of eight total seasons.  He was a big performer for the Rangers in 2011, driving in 15 runs in 17 games.

Weaknesses/Cons

While Napoli's AVN has not affected his play or caused him to miss time to date, the Red Sox were concerned enough about the condition to reduce their offer to one guaranteed year at less than 40% of the original salary.  Napoli was back on the open market during the seven-plus weeks his contract was being renegotiated, and while agent Brian Grieper praised his client for his loyalty, it's likely other interested teams shared Boston's concern and didn't offer significantly more.

Napoli has proven his health to the extent possible this year by setting a career best in plate appearances with 578 in the regular season.  It's difficult to project his playing time in the future, however, since he was previously a catcher and has now been diagnosed with AVN.  Napoli had more than his fair share of separate injuries, with 53 DL days in '07, 32 in '08, 22 in '11, and 35 in '12.  These injuries, involving his ankle, hamstring, shoulder, oblique, and quad, may have been related to time spent at catcher, but his history dates back to the minors.  Any team considering a multiyear offer has to take the entire injury history into account.

Napoli struck out in 32.4% of his plate appearances this year, worst among all qualified free agents.  Mark Reynolds and Marlon Byrd are the only other two to even top 20%.  Napoli's strikeouts, which have increased in the past two years, are a big reason why he's hitting .246 since 2012.  Given his walk rate, it still makes for a strong OBP, but if he bats .240 and walks dip to his 2009-10 level, his OBP will no longer be an asset.  Additionally, as you would expect from a former catcher, Napoli's baserunning is below average.

I mentioned earlier that Napoli leads all free agents in isolated power, but his .223 mark is actually his worst since 2009.  Given his previous production and career high in plate appearances, I would have expected Napoli to have over 30 home runs at this point rather than 23.

The Rangers chose not to tender Napoli a $13.3MM qualifying offer after the 2012 season, but with a healthier campign and their recent preference for short-term deals, the Red Sox are likely to make the $14MM qualifying offer five days after the World Series ends.  Napoli is the type of player the system hurts the most: one who is good but not great, and doesn't have the youth of a B.J. Upton.  With the cost of a first or even second round draft pick, a few teams could lose interest in Napoli.

Personal

Mike resides in Pembroke Pines, Florida.  He values time with his family, and even has his mother's name, Donna Rose, tattooed on his arm.  Mike is a big fan of the NFL and college football, particularly the University of Miami.

Market

It would be reasonable for the Red Sox to try to bring Napoli back, and a qualifying offer or the threat of one gives them some leverage.  We've seen them tangle with David Ortiz in this type of situation, with Ortiz accepting arbitration after the 2011 season and getting a two-year deal done last November with a qualifying offer in hand, before hitting the open market.  The Red Sox were willing to offer Napoli three years and $39MM to sign him off the open market last winter before the AVN revelation, but they honed in on him, Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, and Stephen Drew in part they would not cost a draft pick.  The Sox liked the two-year, $26MM price enough on Ortiz to forgo the chance at draft pick compensation for him, and I wonder if two years might be their limit on Napoli.  On the other hand, they don't have much in the way of alternatives.

Draft pick compensation will affect Napoli on the open market if he turns down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox.  Still, teams like the Twins, Rockies, and Mets, with protected first round draft picks and openings at first base, seem like good fits.  Napoli has the advantage of a very weak free agent market for first basemen.  Kendrys Morales is more of a DH, and could be dragging around a qualifying offer as well.  Otherwise the options are Corey Hart, James Loney, Justin Morneau, Mike Morse, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and Paul Konerko.  As one commenter notes below, the wild card in the first base market is Jose Dariel Abreu, the Cuban slugger in whom the Red Sox may have interest.

Expected Contract

I think a qualifying offer can knock a year off a player's contract, as it seemingly did with Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, so two years and $28MM is the floor for Napoli.  Ultimately I predict Napoli will land a three-year, $42MM deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Notes: Napoli, Hochevar, Wedge

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Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli says he wants to return to the team next season, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. Since he has stayed healthy, Napoli has earned the maximum $13MM value of his one-year deal with Boston for 2013. Napoli thinks there's no reason he shouldn't get a multiyear contract this winter, given that his AVN (a condition that leads to degeneration of bone in his hips) has not progressed. "After last offseason, I can’t really [guess], because after going into last offseason thinking I’d get that multi-year contract, I did my time, I’m a free agent, finally got that time, and look what happened," Napoli says. Here are more notes from the American League.

  • It's unclear what the Royals will do with Luke Hochevar next season, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star writes. He has had surprising success out of the bullpen this year, but it's questionable whether a team like the Royals ought to continue to employ him as a setup man after he gets a raise on his $4.6MM 2013 salary in arbitration this offseason. Given that Ervin Santana and Bruce Chen will be free agents, the Royals could also use Hochevar in the rotation, even though he mostly struggled in his career as a starter. Dutton also raises the possibility that the Royals could trade closer Greg Holland and use Hochevar in that role.
  • It would be surprising if manager Eric Wedge returned to the Mariners next season, but that doesn't mean the team's problems are primarily his fault, writes Dave Cameron of USS Mariner. In fact, Cameron argues, firing Wedge would merely be part of a larger pattern in which the team fires an employee in order to provide scapegoats for the organization's mistakes. And if the Mariners were to fire Wedge, qualified replacements would not see the position as an attractive one, due to the risk that GM Jack Zduriencik will be fired and his replacement would want to bring in his own manager.

Cafardo On Ruiz, Napoli, Hudson, Sizemore

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there are several top teams that will have surpluses in certain areas this offseason that will be second guessing whatever move they make.  In the case of the Dodgers, they have four strong outfielders in Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, and Carl Crawford.  One would imagine that Ethier, who is frequently in trade rumors, would be the one to go, but GM Ned Colletti could also give some thought to dealing Kemp if the right offer comes along.  Here's more from today's column..

  • After bouncing back from a slow start, catcher Carlos Ruiz is desirable again and the Phillies are more enthused about the idea of re-signing him.  That may prove to be difficult once Ruiz gets to the open market as he’d be a cheaper alternative to Brian McCann or Jarrod Saltalamacchia and more consistent than Dioner Navarro.
  • According to Mike Napoli's agent Brian Grieper, there still haven't been contract talks with the Red Sox.  It appears they will play it out and decide about a qualifying offer.  One possibility is that they put Xander Bogaerts at third and Will Middlebrooks at first, taking Napoli out of the equation.
  • Tim Hudson, 38, wants to return from the ankle fracture he suffered in July.  Hudson, who should cleared for baseball activities by mid-December, will be a free agent but wants to stay in Atlanta.  It'll come down to the money for the veteran, who earned $9MM this season.
  • Grady Sizemore tried to get back playing this season, but he needs more time for his knees to heal. He'll likely be ready for a major league camp next spring and work out for teams this offseason to show he’s healthy.  If he looks OK, he’ll probably get a few teams interested.
  • Some still believe that it was a mistake for the Angels to only pay Mike Trout $510K this season and that he won't forget it when it comes time to work out a new deal with the club.

AL East Notes: Tazawa, Huff, Francisco, Napoli

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Red Sox reliever Junichi Tazawa has struggled with consistency despite good numbers overall, and Tim Britton of the Providence Journal says he is a growing concern. Britton cites coaches and players (including Tazawa himself) that peg the issue as Tazawa's usually excellent splitter. He has left the pitch up at times and failed to separate it from his fastball in terms of velocity, which could be the cause of his reduced ground-ball rate (34.1%) and increasing propensity for allowing the long ball (1.2 HR/9). Some argued that the club should have acted before the end of August to add another righty to the bullpen mix, but the club stood pat. Of course, Brandon Workman has been stingy of late after struggling early on, giving the club another right-handed arm down the stretch.  Here's more out of the AL East..

  • Working his way from the waiver wire to the Yankees' starting rotation, lefty David Huff has been solid for the Bombers, writes Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger. McCullough has the story of Huff's up-and-down career, and his emergence for New York late this season as the team tries to claw back into the post-season picture. After 16 innings of 1.13 ERA pitching out of the pen, Huff got the starting nod today for a critical matchup against the Red Sox. He was hit hard in the early going, however, surrendering nine earned runs in three innings and change.
  • The Yankees should put together a trade for Mets right-hander Frank Francisco, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com suggests in a tweet. Though Francisco wouldn't be eligible for the Yanks' postseason roster, he could help them in the season's final month, Rubin says. The 33-year-old was activated by the Mets from the disabled list today and hasn't appeared in a game this season. Fransico had a 5.53 ERA and an ugly 4.5 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings for the Mets last year, but struck out 10 batters per nine innings.
  • Mike Napoli's agent Brian Grieper responded, "He has stuck to his routine all season … we'll see," when asked if his client will ever appear behind the plate again, according to a tweet by Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. After appearing in at least 61 games at catcher every year since making the majors in 2006, Napoli hasn't caught in a game in 2013, spending the majority of his time at first base. Though the ability to catch would allow Napoli to provide more value to a club as he re-enters the free agent market, his diagnosis of avascular necrosis in the hips last offseason has likely been a factor in deciding where he plays.

Jeff Todd and Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

East Links: Napoli, Sox, Stanton, Schierholtz, Yanks

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There has been plenty of news out of baseball's Eastern divisions already today; the Phillies' agreement with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is in jeopardy, the Blue Jays released Michael Schwimer and Alex Rodriguez has officially filed an appeal of his 211-game suspension. Here's more on a releatively busy August day for MLB's east coast teams…

  • An MRI on Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli's hips showed that his avascular necrosis (a degenerative hip condition he learned he had last offseason) has not worsened, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. Bradford spoke to Napoli about his upcoming free agency, and Napoli said he feels more at ease this time around and is relieved to know that his condition hasn't worsened.
  • John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes that Red Sox DH David Ortiz doesn't think last year's team would have rallied to erase a 5-0 defecit and defeat the Astros 15-10 as they did last night. “I would say it was a lot of things going on and I don't think a lot of guys were focused on the things that we need to do to win ballgames.” Ortiz went on to praise Boston GM Ben Cherington and the team's front office for making tough decisions and reworking the entire organization in such a short time.
  • MLB.com's Joe Frisaro reports that the Marlins never got to the point where they even received specific names in trade proposals for Giancarlo Stanton this July. Four high-ranking officials shot down a rumored blockbuster proposal from the Pirates involving Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole. Frisaro adds that the Marlins want to build around Stanton and will discuss a long-term contract this offseason.
  • There was less risk to keeping Nate Schierholtz around than there was in non-tendering him for the Phillies last offseason, opines David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Murphy questions GM Ruben Amaro Jr.'s claim that the team couldn't get a good look at Schierholtz last season as he missed time with a broken toe shortly after being acquired, noting that team could've tendered him a contract and just traded him at the end of Spring Training if they weren't impressed. However, as Murphy notes, Schierholtz alone would not have come close to solving all of the Phillies' 2013 problems.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman is operating under the assumption that he will have A-Rod for the remainder of the season, but he's also scouting the trade market for secondary options, writes MLB.com's Joey Nowak.

Cafardo On Napoli, Red Sox, Royals, Yankees

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In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe credits Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly for not avoiding difficult subjects.  Mattingly has been less than thrilled with the club, which hasn't produced much despite its hefty price tag.  “They wanted to make a big splash with the new ownership,” said an American League executive. “They wanted to show their fans they were going to spend the money and put what they thought was the best team on the field money could buy. Well, not so much. You can win with All-Star teams. The Yankees have won with one. But the mix has to be right.”  As far as Cafardo is concerned, Mattingly doesn't deserve to be fired.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli has not heard from the club on an extension.  Meanwhile, he has told his agent, Brian Grieper, that the environment around the team is even better than it was in Texas, which Napoli thought was great.  Grieper said he’s open to talks, but “we’ll let it play out and show during the course of the season that Mike is healthy.”  
  • The combination of Elliot Johnson and Chris Getz at second base isn't getting it done for the Royals and they're on the lookout for help.  It won't be easy, however, and with Miguel Tejada now 39, he wouldn’t seem to be the answer, either.  The Royals knew coming into the season that they might struggle offensively at the position, and they have. 
  • Chris Bootcheck is having a resurgence at the Yankees’ Triple A affiliate, posting a 2.80 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.  The Yankees haven’t called the right-hander up yet and he has a late-June opt-out.  If he’s still pitching well, he would be in demand.
  • If Reid Ryan's thinking is similar to his father's, then there might not be much room for a lot of statistics-driven analysis with the Astros under their new regime.
  • Some have wondered if Roy Oswalt has lost the fire to pitch.  He'll have four starts for the Rockies' Double-A affiliate to show that he's still got it and worthy of a callup to the big league roster.

Rosenthal On Headley, Napoli, Blue Jays, Angels

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Here's a look at the latest edition of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports..

  • Chase Headley is probably going to be traded by the July 31st deadline. The Padres plan to spend the next two months determining whether they can lock up the third baseman long term, but there are two problems with that.  For starters, Headley says he doesn't want to talk about a new deal during the season.  Secondly, it would be surprising to see San Diego crack $100MM to keep him.  Headley probably wants a better hitting environment and to play for a better team.  Meanwhile, there's no shortage of teams that would like to add him as Rosenthal says there could be at least a dozen clubs in the market for a third baseman, including the Dodgers, Cubs, and White Sox.
  • If Mike Napoli stays healthy and continues producing, the Red Sox first baseman will build his case for a multi-year deal in free agency.  Of course, Boston reduced their three-year offer to Napoli to one-year after learning he had a condition in both hips.  However, he's taking MRIs every three months to keep tabs on it and if the tests show that his condition is improved or stable, a team might be willing to extend a longer offer, especially since he's playing first base rather than catcher.
  • Josh Johnson is the Blue Jays' most obvious trade candidate but if the season becomes a train wreck, they'll have the ability to move virtually any player.  Jose Reyes is the only player signed beyond 2015 while most players on multi-year deals are signed at affordable prices and no one has a no-trade clause.  Brandon Morrow might be an interesting name as the club has lots of young pitching coming.  Of course, the Blue Jays have to fall out of things before considering such a move.
  • It's bad enough for the Angels that shortstop Jean Segura is blossoming into a star elsewhere, but they've also traded away an entire rotation's worth of talent in recent years.  The Halos sent Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs to Arizona for Dan Haren, Donn Roach to San Diego for Ernesto Frieri, and Johnny Hellweg to Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke deal.  On top of that, the Angels weakened their farm system by giving up their first and second round picks last year for Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson and their first round pick this year to ink Josh Hamilton.  Their top pick last year was No. 114, this year it'll be No. 59.

Quick Hits: Phillies, Angels, Napoli

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Yesterday morning, Tim Dierkes asked MLBTR readers to choose the best GM in baseball, and over 26,000 people voted. With the Athletics' Billy Beane in the lead with over 3,600 votes, several executives have failed to pass the century mark in total votes: the Marlins' Larry Beinfest (70 votes); the Padres' Josh Byrnes (84); and the Rockies' Bill Geivett (41).  A few random links for the morning: 

  • Yesterday, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan broke down the latest on baseball's ongoing TV deal saga. He writes that the Phillies are looking good to become the latest team to benefit from a bidding war. Passan predicts that the Phils will ultimately get a $4-5 billion deal, allowing the team to keep its top-level payroll. 
  • The Angels are prepared to try to restore their major presence in Latin America with the opening of their new facility in the Dominican Republic, according to MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. Gonzalez explains that the team will likely ramp up its international spending as it looks to get back to its prior track record in Latin America, which includes players like Erick Aybar, Kendrys Morales, Francisco Rodriguez, and Ervin Santana.
  • Speaking to WEEI's Alex Speier, Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli recounted his trade to the Blue Jays in January 2011.  Napoli cut short a cruise in Mexico due to the Jays' urgency for him to take a physical, and then found it odd when no one from the team's front office welcomed him.  He was traded to the Rangers a few days later.  
  • Padres pitchers Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard "could become prime trade candidates" when Cory Luebke and Joe Wieland return from Tommy John surgery, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, assuming the veterans start pitching better.  It's been a strange April for Volquez, whose strikeouts and walks are both down significantly.  Richard, always a pitch-to-contact type, has seen his control abandon him and almost a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard.

Quick Hits: Mariners Napoli, Cardinals, K-Rod

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The struggles of Jackie Bradley Jr. serve as a reminder that Spring Training stats are a mere "snapshot in time," writes SB Nation's Rob Neyer. He adds that Spring Training stats "describe the random nature of raw performance statistics as much as they describe fundamental abilities." Here are some links from around the league…

  • The excellent play of Endy Chavez is going to force the Mariners to make a roster decision, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. With Michael Saunders coming off the DL next week, the team will have to make a move or carry six outfielders. Jason Bay seems like the most logical candidate as the odd man out, in my personal opinion.
  • There was a point this offseason where Brian Grieper, Mike Napoli's agent and friend, thought Napoli's career in baseball was over, writes WEEI.com's Alex Speier. Napoli was diagnosed with avascular necrosis in both hips this offseason but has been healthy through the early portion of the season.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is comfortable with the relievers he has despite the bullpen's struggles thus far, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. As Strauss notes, it's difficult to find help from outside the organization at this point in the season.
  • The Marlins were never interested in Francisco Rodriguez, tweets Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. K-Rod signed a minor league deal with the Brewers yesterday.
  • Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes that Padres president Tom Garfinkel apologized for the behind-closed-doors comments he made about Zack Greinke which were linked to the public. Garfinkel said flatly that Greinke threw at Carlos Quentin on purpose and also made comments which hinted at Greinke's previous battles with social anxiety disorder.
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